william dudley presentation

8/8/2019 William Dudley Presentation

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October 1, 2010

The Outlook, Policy Choices and Our Mandate

Charts presented by William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer

Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall Conference

City University of New York Graduate School of Journalism

New York, NY


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30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

Home Prices and Owners Equity as Percent of Home ValuesPercent Index, January 2000 = 100

Source: Federal Reserve Board and CoreLogic

Long-Term Average:65.2

CoreLogic HousePrice Index(right axis)

Owners Equity as

Percent of HomeValues

(left axis)

Note: Long-Term Average is of OwnersEquity as Percent of Home Values.

2


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0

3

6

9

12

15

1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

400

440

480

520

560

600

640

Percent Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal SavingRate

(left axis)

Personal Saving Rate and Net Worth as Percent of Disposable Income

Net Worth as Percentof Disposable Income

(right axis)

3


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62.5

65.0

67.5

70.0

72.5

75.0

77.5

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

62.5

65.0

67.5

70.0

72.5

75.0

77.5

Consumption and Residential Investment as Percent of GDPPercent Percent

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumption andResidential

Investment/GDP

4


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Percent Percent

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Saving Rate

Personal Saving Rate(pre-July 2010 revisions)

Personal Saving Rate(post-July 2010 revisions)

5


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50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Composite Housing Affordability IndexIndex = 100 Index = 100

Source: National Associate of Realtors

Composite HousingAffordability Index

Note: Index = 100 when median family income qualifies for an80% mortgage on a median priced existing single-family home.

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30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

Percent Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

HouseholdLiabilities/Disposable

Personal Income(left axis)

Household Balance Sheet

Financial

Assets/DisposablePersonal Income(right axis)

Note: Household liabilities equal homemortgages and consumer credit.


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15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

Ratio Ratio


Household FinancialObligation Ratio

Household Financial Obligation Ratio

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Mortgage Debt by Delinquency StatusPercent of $ Amount Percent of $ Amount

Source: Equifax

30 Days Late

60 Days Late

90 Days Late

120+ Days Late

SeverelyDerogatory

Note: Data cover first mortgages, second mortgages, and home equity lines of credit. 9


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Transition of Mortgage Accounts from 30-60 Days LatePercent Percent

Source: FRBNY Equifax Panel Dataset

To Current

To 90+ Days Late

10


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Non-Mortgage Debt by DelinquencyPercent Percent

Source: Equifax

30 Days Late

60 Days Late

90 Days Late

120+ Days Late

SeverelyDerogatory

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-25

0

25

50

75

100

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

-25

0

25

50

75

100

Senior Loan Officers SurveyNet Percent Net Percent


Banks TighteningC&I Loans

TighteningStandards for

Consumer CreditCards

Tightening

Standards forCommercial Real

Estate

TighteningStandards for

ResidentialMortgages

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0.0

7.5

15.0

22.5

30.0

37.5

1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

0.0

7.5

15.0

22.5

30.0

37.5

NFIB Survey: Most Important ProblemPercent Percent

Source: National Federation of Independent Business

Financial andInterest Rates

Poor Sales

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14

Reference Charts


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Total Debt by Payment Status

Status

Amount of

Total Debt

by

PaymentStatus

Percent ofTotal Debt

Amount of

Total Debt

by

PaymentStatus


Percent

Change

from2005Q1

Amount of

Total Debt

by

PaymentStatus


Percent

Change

from2008Q3

Current 8,700.0 95.9% 11,400.0 91.4% 31.0% 10,340.0 88.6% -9.3%

30 Days Late 136.0 1.5% 289.0 2.3% 112.5% 234.8 2.0% -18.8%

60 Days Late 37.4 0.4% 138.0 1.1% 269.0% 106.3 0.9% -23.0%

90+ Days Late 197.9 2.2% 641.5 5.1% 224.2% 985.6 8.4% 53.6%

Total 9,071.3 100.0% 12,468.5 100.0% 37.4% 11,666.7 100.0% -6.4%


Total Debt by Payment StatusBillions of Dollars

2005-Q1 2008-Q3 2010-Q2

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Total Debt by Equifax Risk Score Quintile

Median Equifax

Risk Score of

Quintile Total Debt

Percent of

Total Debt Total Debt

Percent of

Total Debt

Percent

Change

from

2005Q1 Total Debt

Percent of

Total Debt

Percent

Change

from

2008Q3

807 2,021.8 22.3% 2,286.8 18.3% 13.1% 2,120.5 18.1% -7.3%

767 2,329.4 25.6% 3,105.5 24.7% 33.3% 2,919.5 25.0% -6.0%

708 2,362.2 26.0% 3,451.7 27.6% 46.1% 3,174.0 27.1% -8.0%

631 1,444.4 15.9% 2,281.9 18.4% 58.0% 2,034.7 17.4% -10.8%

539 928.0 10.2% 1,086.5 8.8% 17.1% 1,007.6 8.6% -7.3%

Missing Equifax

Risk Score0.0 0.0% 288.8 2.2% N/A 435.8 3.7% 50.9%

Total 9,085.9 100.0% 12,501.1 100.0% 37.6% 11,692.2 100.0% -6.5%


Total Debt by Equifax Risk Score QuintileBillions of Dollars

2005-Q1 2008-Q3 2010-Q2

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