william blair 37th annual growth stock conference · william blair 37th annual growth stock...
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William Blair 37th Annual Growth Stock Conference
David Nelms
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
June 15, 2017
©2017 DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES
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Notice
The following slides are part of a presentation by Discover Financial Services (the "Company") and are intended to be viewed as part of that
presentation. No representation is made that the information in these slides is complete. This presentation is available on the Company’s website
(www.discover.com) and the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov).
Throughout these materials, direct-to-consumer deposits are referred to as DTC deposits or direct deposits. DTC, or direct, deposits are deposit
products that we offer to customers through direct marketing, internet origination and affinity relationships. DTC, or direct, deposits include
certificates of deposits, money market accounts, online savings and checking accounts, and IRA certificates of deposit.
The presentation contains forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which
speak only as of the date on which they are made, which reflect management’s estimates, projections, expectations or beliefs at that time, and
which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. For a discussion of certain risks and uncertainties
that may affect the future results of the Company, please see "Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements," "Risk Factors," "Business
– Competition," "Business – Supervision and Regulation" and "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of
Operations" in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, and under “Management’s Discussion and
Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31,
2017, which are filed with the SEC and available at the SEC's website. The Company does not undertake to update or revise forward-looking
statements as more information becomes available.
We own or have rights to use the trademarks, trade names and service marks that we use in conjunction with the operation of our business,
including, but not limited to: Discover®, PULSE®, Cashback Bonus®, Discover Cashback Checking®, Discover it®, Freeze ItSM, Discover®
Network and Diners Club International®. All other trademarks, trade names and service marks included in this presentation are the property of
their respective owners.
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Franchise Overview –
Positioned as the leading U.S. direct bank & payments partner
Note(s)
Balances as of March 31, 2017; pre-tax profit and volume based on the trailing four quarters ending 1Q17 (unless noted)
1. 2016 TNS’ Consumer Payment Strategies Study
2. Diners volume is derived from data provided by licensees for Diners Club branded cards issued outside of North America and is subject to subsequent revision or amendment
Direct Banking(97% of DFS Pre-Tax Profit)
Payment Services(3% of DFS Pre-Tax Profit)
U.S. Card Issuing
• $60Bn card receivables
• $123Bn card sales volume
• Leading cash rewards program
• 1 in 4 U.S. households(1)
Deposits and Lending
• $37Bn direct-to-consumer
deposits
• Cashback checking
• $9Bn private student loans
• $7Bn personal loans
• Home equity installment loans
• $14Bn volume
• 10+ network alliances
• $139Bn volume
• 4,600+ issuers
• $29Bn volume(2)
• 90+ licensees
• 185+ countries / territories
Network Partners
Be the leading direct bank and payments partner
Franchise Overview –
Vision, strategic objectives and goal
Vision
Create long-term shareholder value
Goal
Focus areas and strategic objectives
Invest for the future
• Build awareness and consideration
• Enhance capabilities and operating model
Achieve profitable, disciplined growth
• Excel at serving our customers; simple,
secure experience with deep relationships
• Offer differentiated products
• Leverage payments network
Manage risk prudently
4
5
$0.6
$2.4
2007 20162007 2016
Credit Debit
2007 20162007 2016
Card Non-Card
Franchise Overview –
Business model has expanded and diversified
Loans Funding Network Volume
Other
ABS
Brokered
Direct
Deposits
Note(s)1. 2007 data is as of fiscal year ending November 30, 20072. Includes Network Partners volume
Net Income
(All data in billions)
$53
$77
$54
$77
$186
$307
(2)
(1) (1) (1) (1)
6
9.68%0.14%
0.15% 0.02% 9.99%
2015 Change in marketrates
Portfolio mix andother
Interest charge-offs
2016
Net Interest Margin –
Asset sensitivity helped drive NIM expansion in 2016
Net Interest Margin
2017 NIM guidance: slightly higher than 2016The benefit of incremental increases in the prime rate will be partially offset by higher:
• Wholesale funding costs
• Balance transfer and promotional balances
• Deposit betas
• Interest charge-offs
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Payments –
Leverage payments assets to support card issuing
Merchant funded rewards
Emerging technologies
Flexibility and control
Brand recognition
8
Card –
Proprietary network helps drive brand recognition
64
5653 53
29 29
19
13
6
V MA DFS AXP COF JPM C BAC WFC
Source: 2016 Millward Brown Brand Tracking Study
Average Unaided Card Brand Awareness
9
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17
DFS Industry
Card –
Loan growth has been consistent and profitable
Source: Company filings. Industry includes AXP, BAC, C, COF, JPM, SYF, WFC.
Note(s)1. Standard deviation of quarterly loan growth
Growth STDEV Avg ROE
DFS 1.3% 21%
Industry 2.5% 9%
(1)
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Card –
Recognized leader in customer satisfaction and loyalty
Note(s)
1. “Recommend to a Friend” is the percentage of survey participants who strongly / somewhat agree with the statement “I would recommend to a friend” among cardholders
who say they use that brand’s card most often to make purchases
2. “Consideration” is the percentage of survey participants saying either “it would be my first choice” or “I would seriously consider it” among general population
Brand Strength Customer Satisfaction
Source: 2016 Brand Health Tracker Study, Millward Brown
American Express
Bank of America
Capital One
Chase
Citibank
Wells Fargo
Discover
Reco
mm
en
d t
o a
Fri
en
d(1
)
Consideration(2)
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Card –
Digital driving customer experience and efficiencies
Applications:
Website
Mobile
Digital Payments
Mobile Logins
47%
40%
64%
50%
Balance Transfer
Offers
Single Sign On
Portal
Mobile Experiences 2016 Digital Efficiency Metrics
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Card –
One’s view on credit depends on one's perspective
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17
Card Net Charge-off (NCO) Rate
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0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
AXP BAC DFS JPM C WFC COF SYF
1Q17 NCO Rate
Card –
Net charge-off rate remains among the lowest in the industry
Source: Company filings
Note(s)1. U.S. Consumer Services card member loans2. U.S. Card 3. Credit card 4. North America Citi-Branded Cards5. Domestic Card6. Total company
(1) (2) (4) (5) (6)(3) (3) (3)
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Card –
Charge-off drivers(1)
Seasonality
Seasoning Normalization (Mean Reversion)
Macroeconomic fundamentals
NC
Os
NC
Os
Through-the-cycle average
Time
TimeRecession
1 2 30
NC
Os
Years from
Origination
4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
NC
Os
Note(s)1. Illustrative depictions; graphs do not represent actual data
15
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1Q85 1Q89 1Q93 1Q97 1Q01 1Q05 1Q09 1Q13
U.S. Consumer NCO Rate and Unemployment Rate
Card –
Recessions trigger cyclical consumer credit inflections
Consumer NCO Rate (LHS)
Unemployment Rate (RHS)
Economic recessionSource: Federal Reserve, BLS, NBER
16
300
350
400
4Q07 4Q09 4Q11 4Q13 4Q15
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-15
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
1Q07 1Q09 1Q11 1Q13 1Q15
200
300
400
500
600
700
Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-17
Card –
Consumer credit fundamentals remain favorable
Initial Jobless Claims Unemployment Rate
Home Prices Debt to Disposable Income Ratio
Source: DOL, BLS, FHFA, Federal Reserve
Ind
ex, 1Q
80=
100
Th
ou
san
ds
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Private Student Loans –
Discover is one of the largest private student lenders
Overview
• Not-for-profit schools with 4-year
undergraduate or graduate degree
programs, bar and residency loans
- 99 of top 100 national
universities(1)
- 50 of top 50 medical, law and
graduate business schools(1)
• Cosigner rate of ~90% on originations
• Average FICO > 750 at acquisition(2)
• School certification and direct
disbursement to school for all
graduate and undergraduate
borrowers
Note(s)
1. Placement of Discover brand at schools that use a lender list; rankings based on 2017 U.S. News and World Report
2. The higher of the borrower or the co-signer at origination on the organic portfolio
3. Includes CitiAssist branded originated loans for 2012
$6.4
$2.6
$7.8$8.1
$8.5$8.8 $9.0
-
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Purchased Portfolios Organic
Total NCO rate
Loans ($Bn)
’12-’16
CAGR
-14%
’12-’16
CAGR
20%
(3)
18
$3.3
$4.2
$5.0
$5.5
$6.5
-
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Loans Outstanding
6-month Lagged Charge-off Rate
Personal Loans –
Driving disciplined, profitable growth
Overview Loans ($Bn)
• Superior alternative for
consolidating debt
• Typical installment loan
characteristics:
– 3- to 7-year term
‒ Up to $35,000
‒ Average portfolio FICO of 745
• Two-thirds of borrowers have a
Discover credit card
2012-2016
18% CAGR
(1)
Note(s)
1. An example calculation of 6-month Lagged Charge-off Rate: net principal charge-offs for the 12 months ending December 31, 2016 divided by average loan balance of the 12
months ending June 30, 2016
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Direct-to-Consumer Deposits (DTC) –
Funding asset growth with high quality deposits
DTC Deposits ($Bn)
DTC Balances
by Life of Relationship
$28
$36
2012 2016
16%
53%
45%
16%
39%31%
2012 2016
4+ Years 2 - 4 Years < 2 years
20
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
DFS 5Yr Swap
Direct-to-Consumer Deposits –
Low deposit betas have contributed to asset sensitivitySavings 12M CD
60M CD Deposit Betas
0.0%
0.4%
0.8%
1.2%
1.6%
DFS Fed Funds Target
0.0%
0.4%
0.8%
1.2%
1.6%
DFS Fed Funds Target
• Deposit betas were essentially zero
through the first two Fed rate hikes
• Direct banks began to raise deposit rates
after the March 2016 rate hike, though
deposit betas remain below long-term
averages
Note(s)
1. Direct peer represents the median of: ALLY, AXP, BCS, CIT, COF, EVER,
GS, Nationwide, SLM, SYF, USAA
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13.4%
1Q17
Capital –
Strong capital levels allow for significant capital returns
Note(s)1. 2016 common dividends plus gross share repurchases divided by market capitalization at 12/31/152. Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Ratio (Basel III Transition)
DFS Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio(2)
10% - 11%
2016 Total Yield(1)
Source Public Company Disclosures
Expected
Target
11.8%
10.4%
8.2%
7.0%6.6%
4.4%
COF DFS AXP C JPM BAC
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