Will the global economy accelerate or stumble?

Our Mid-Year Outlook

The global economy grew modestly in the first half of 2015.

But where willit go next?

In a policy-driven world, we see three possible paths.

Path 1Economic

Stagnation

Path 2Secular

Expansion

Path 3Moderate Growth

Path 1Economic StagnationU.S. rates rise quickly, restraining growth.

Deflation takes over Europe and Japan.

China weakens and global trade stagnates.

Probability? Low

China experiences significant consumption growth.

The strong dollar and cheap energy fuel a U.S. boom.

Europe and emerging markets see major structural reforms.

Path 2Secular Expansion

LowProbability?

Growth is strong enough to support corporate earnings, but not enough to cause inflationary concerns.

Path 3Moderate Growth

HighProbability?

How do we get there?

Europe, China and the U.S. avoid policy mistakes.

Modest U.S. growth continues and credit conditions remain favorable.

Greece stays in the Eurozone.

Reforms stabilize and extend growth in China.

All signs point to continuedmoderate growth in the

U.S. and abroad.

Our Mid-Year Outlook?Great Moderation 2.0

Interest rates will stay low.

Investors will pay up for scarce growth and income opportunities.

Stocks will keep outperforming bonds.

We believe:

The BeatGoes On

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Download our 2015 Mid-Year Outlook

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