will the class of 2025 attend dartmouth in hanover or online?

Will the Class of 2025 Attend Dartmouth in Hanover or Online? Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director October 4th, 2011

Source: Seattle Times, Tuesday, January 26, 2010

© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

Motivations:• Increased access to

opportunity• Wicked problems• Impatient actors• Enlightened self interest

My frame of reference

Private sector:• Strategy and management

consultant• Software entrepreneur• MBA

Nonprofit sector:• Consultant to National Park

Service, charter schools, and health services

• Foundation program officer – innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed

Class of 2028 Class of 2031 Class of 2032


Higher education at a crossroads

The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work

Disrupting college?

Unbundled learning?

Potential opportunities for Dartmouth

3


U.S. higher education at a crossroads


Predictions for higher ed in 2020

More students Higher completion rates Lower cost per student Smaller chunks of learning More, measurable indicators of learning


Four challenges for the next decade

Completion challenge Middle skill job demand Stagnant ~40% AA+

attainment levels Low completion rates

Demographic challenge Increasing diversity Low academic readiness “Non-traditional” new

normal

Funding challenge State budget cuts Limits to student and

family ability to pay and to borrow

Quality challenge Increasing demands from

global economy Questioning what students

are really learning


Jobs in today’s (and tomorrow’s) workforce require more education

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

High S

choo

l Drop

out

High S

choo

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uate

Some C

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Bache

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32%40%

12% 16%11%

30% 27%32%

10%

28% 29% 33%

Percentage of Workforce by Education Level1973 2002 2018


The college access agenda has been a success…

Postsecondary fall enrollment 1963-2005

Source: IPEDS


% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007)

55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)

1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%)

2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%)

3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%)

4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%)

5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%)

6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%)

7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%)

8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%)

9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)

10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)

11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)

12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)

13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)

14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)

15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%)

…But degree attainment rates are flat

9Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported)


Why? Low completion rates – our dirty little secret

Source: NELS 1988

Total Private not-for-profit

Public 4-year

Private for-profit

Public 2-year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Bachelor'sAssociate'sCertificate

Percentage of students expecting to earn credentialswho had earned a credential within five years

53%

73%

61%55%

38%


The quality of degrees themselves is being questioned

Study of 2,300 undergraduates at two dozen universities who took the Collegiate Learning Assessment 45 percent “demonstrated no significant gains

in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college”

32 percent of the students whom they followed did not, in a typical semester, take “any courses with more than 40 pages of reading per week

50 percent “did not take a single course in which they wrote more than 20 pages over the course of the semester”


Tuition and fees are growing rapidly…

Source: New York Times


Source: Association of American Publishers (AAP)

…And state funding is declining

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=711


Meanwhile, student demographics are increasingly nontraditional

75%

25%

“Traditional”• Enter college

directly after high school

• Enroll fulltime• Financially

dependent on their parents

“Non-traditional”• Financially

independent (>50%)

• Have dependents of their own (27%)

• Work full time (38%)

• Enroll part time (49%)

Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).




Disrupting college?

Unbundled learning?


15


Education is the primary arbiter of opportunity in the U.S.

Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”

Total inter-generational correlation = 0.431 (1.0 would be perfectly correlated)

Education of parents

Race of head of household

Health status of parents

State of residence

Female-headed household

Financial assets

Unexplained (e.g., motivation, social networks, community, norms)

30%

100%

14%

8%5%

3%

1-28%12-39%

Composition of total intergenerational correlation between parent and children’s income, by transmission channel


Higher education is not equitably distributed

Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 – 2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009.

Bachelor’s Degree attainment by age 24


Graduate all students college-

ready

Help all young people get

degrees that count

College-Ready Postsecondary Success

Helping all young people reach their

full potential

U.S. Program Goal

The Gates Foundation’s work in the U.S. All young people who have the will to get a postsecondary credential should have the way to do it


Gates Foundation postsecondary priorities

Focusing on completion, not just access, in our measurement, funding, and financial aid systems

Accelerating time to a degree through restructuring developmental education and bridging the gaps between high school and college Unlocking the power of technology to personalize learning and student progression

1

2

3


Why is any of this relevant for Dartmouth?




Disrupting college?

Unbundled learning?



How ready are institutions to rise to the challenges of the next decade?

Source: The Iron Triangle: College Presidents Talk About Costs, Access, and Quality, Public Agenda, October 2008.

“In the view of many college and university presidents, the three main factors in higher education—cost, quality, and access—exist in what we call an iron triangle. These factors are linked in an unbreakable reciprocal relationship, such that any change in one will inevitably impact the others.”

- Public Agenda research on opinions of higher education presidents

http://www.publicagenda.org/reports/iron-triangle

http://www.publicagenda.org/reports/iron-triangle


Or said another way…


Dartmouth is one of the lucky ones with a choice in the matter

15%

9%

36%

40%

U.S. undergraduate enrollment, 2009 (N = 17.6 million)

Public 2-year

Public 4-year

Private for-profit

Private not-for-profit


Disruptive Innovation is the process by which

A Sector That ……. with complicated products

services… that were expensive and

inaccessible…. And served only a limited few

sophisticated customers……

Is transformed into one which… Offers products and services

that… Are simple, affordable and

convenient serving…. Many…no matter their wealth and

expertise

How? Redefines quality in a simple often disparaged application Slowly improves taking for market share by taking on complicated problems Without replicating cost structure

Source: Center for American Progress

Disruptive Innovation Process Non-consumption Functionality Reliability Simplicity Cost Reduction

Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn

Process of disruptive innovation Sophisticated customers not

interested

New Customers, less complex needs, expectations

Move up market without replicating cost structure

Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael HornSource: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn


7%

4%12%

8%

18% 22%

% of tons

Stee

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19801975 1985 1990

RebarAngle iron; bars & rods

Structural Steel

Sheet steel

25–30%55%

How does this play out?

Quality of in

tegrated mills’ steel

Quality of minimill-produced steel


Three interrelated disruptive innovations?1. Online Education

2. Technology-powered business models

3. DIY U



1. Online education: how fast is it growing?

% new

% new% old

.001

.0001

.01

0.1

1.0

10.0

09 11070503 13 15



Projection: 50% of all students will be taking at least one online course by 2014

Per

cent

age

of c

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, div

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190.01

0.1

1

10



Questions of online learning quality


Student achievement in on-line courses when administered by faculty in core

4.6 5.6

Student achievement in traditional classes taught by faculty in core

Student achievement in on-line courses when administered by focused on-line faculty

5.7


2. Technology-powered business models: relevant for elite institutions?


3. DIY U: Is this how the most talented, motivated, and self-directed will learn?

http://www.youtube.com/education?b=400

http://cache.smashwire.com/bookCovers/4919a7af1da918924fbe56d7c67ea944ede1e8fe




Disrupting college?

Unbundled learning?


35


What society wants from college?

1. Knowledge & Skills

2. Facilitation

3. Socialization

4. AccreditationWhat happens when we go from scarcity to abundance? Can they be unbundled?

Why have these functions historically been bundled? Scarcity


Knowledge & skills in abundance?

2,000 MIT courses, many with lecture capture

2,400 lessons, delivered 78,406,600 times – and counting

http://ocw.mit.edu/about/next-decade

http://adclick.g.doubleclick.net/aclk?sa=L&ai=BjVcxhFuKTseEBom9sQf_yZDmAsvNuYMCAAAAEAEg94TLDTgAWJu6kKUNYMnGqYvApNgPsgELb2N3Lm1pdC5lZHW6AQlnZnBfaW1hZ2XIAQnaARNodHRwOi8vb2N3Lm1pdC5lZHUv4AECwAIC4AIA6gILSE9NRV9TTE9UX0L4AvDRHpADrAKYA-ADqAMB0ASQTuAEAaAGFg&num=0&sig=AOD64_1yiQgGMnkLqqS4CkPrRPQ-Q58pUw&client=ca-pub-6588555046597237&adurl=http://www.ocwconsortium.org/courses

http://www.hippocampus.org/;jsessionid=648AD9821B68248E44CEB223F5122C65


Facilitation in abundance?


Socialization in abundance?

http://www.inigral.com/




Accreditation in abundance?


Top tier institutions have often led the push to abundance

1. Knowledge & Skills MIT, Yale

2. Facilitation Stanford, USC

3. Socialization Harvard, GA Tech

4. Accreditation ???

Can Dartmouth define itself not by its scarcity, but by its abundance – who it invites in, what it shares, how it engages?




Disrupting college?

Unbundled learning?


42


Dartmouth is one of the lucky institutions with choices

Disrupting college Unbundled learning • Online education• Technology-powered

business models• DIY U

• Knowledge & Skills• Facilitation• Socialization• Accreditation

?

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=dartmouth+logo&id=2B992F19D2A5FDD9B9C6D91C0E946E40BB17099F&FORM=IGRE1


A few idea sparks1. Expand online and blended graduate programs2. Add OSP – Online Study Program – to FSP list3. Require one online course for graduation – the

“swim test” of the 21st century4. Experiment with MOOCs – Massive Open Online

Courses5. Accredit a general education core of online

courses available to all6. Partner with a corporate university and become

their accredited partner7. Provide your advocacy voice to the completion

agenda and better measures of learning

What do you think Dartmouth should do?

Thank You

Josh Jarrett, Deputy DirectorEducation – Postsecondary Success

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.gatesfoundation.org/

will the class of 2025 attend dartmouth in hanover or online?

Documents

higher education

postsecondary ed class

education requirements

postsecondary degrees

degree attainment rates

unbundled learning

college access agenda

increased access