why invest in autonomous technology and robotics?...forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be...

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www.ark-funds.com ARKQ For Informational Purposes Only | As of March 31, 2020 Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?

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Page 1: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

www.ark-funds.com ARKQ

For Informational Purposes Only | As of March 31, 2020

Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?

Page 2: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

2 |

Risks of Investing in Autonomous Technology and Robotics

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019

Please note, companies that ARK believes are capitalizing on disruptive innovation and developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so. ARK aims to educate investors and seeks to size the potential investment opportunity in Disruptive Innovation, noting that risks and uncertainties may impact our projections and research models. Investors should use the content presented for informational purposes only, and be aware of market risk, disruptive innovation risk, regulatory risk, and risks related to certain innovation areas. Please read risk disclosure carefully.

RISK FACTORS OF INVESTING IN AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY AND ROBOTICS

Disruptive Innovation

Rapid Pace of Change

Exposure Across Sectors and Market Cap

Environmental Concerns

Regulatory Hurdles and Gov. Demand

Barriers to Entry

Political Pressure and Liability Claims

à Aim to understand the regulatory, market, sector, and company risks. (See Risk and Disclosure at the end)

à Aim for a cross-sector understanding of technologyand combine top down and bottom up research.

Competitive LandscapeUncertainty and Unknowns

Disclosure

Page 3: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

3 |

Industrial Robot Prices Are Declining

[1] Wright’s Law forecasts cost as a function of production. For every cumulative doubling in units produced, costs decline in percentage terms. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019, “World Robotics.” IFR International Federation of Robotics, arkinv.st/36dFXVJ; Boston Consulting Group (BCG) “How Robots Will Redefine Competitiveness.” 23 Sept. 2015, arkinv.st/2SDew3B.

Based on Wright's Law,1 ARK estimates a more rapid cost decline in industrial robot prices during the next five years compared to a forecast by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

1995 1996

20052010

20142018

$2,000

$20,000

$200,000

500,000 5,000,000

Unit

Pric

e (2

018

USD)

Cumulative Production (Units)

ARK’s Industrial Robot Price Decline Model

BCG Price Decline ARK Price Decline Historic Prices

$139,000

$72,000

$33,000$25,000

$13,000

2024

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 4: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

4 |

Robot Demand Has Responded to Lower Prices

Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “World Robotics.” IFR International Federation of Robotics, arkinv.st/36dFXVJ.

While they flattened in 2019 in response to the US-China trade conflict and a slowdown in the global auto industry, ARK expects robot sales to quadruple during the next five years, from roughly 420,000 in 2018 to 1.6 million in 2024.

1996 19982000

20022004

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-

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ots

Unit Price of an Industrial Robot

Industrial Robot Price Elasticity of Demand

1996-2002 2002-2010 2009 2010-2015 2016-2018

420,000

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.4

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.8

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ARK Industrial Robot Forecast

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 5: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

5 |

Sizing the Opportunity

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateForecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, arkinv.st/2rFJJYW.

Automation could add $800 billion to US GDP during the next five years and $12 trillion during the next 15 years. By 2035, GDP could hit $40 trillion, nearly 40% higher than would be the case without automation, compounding at a 2.4% growth rate instead of 1.8%.

$0

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2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

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US GDP With and Without AutomationGDP with Automation GDP Without Automation

1.8%

2.4%

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GDP Growth Without Automation

GDP Growth With Automation

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US Real GDP Growth (CAGR)2019 - 2024

*

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 6: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

6 |

Ridehailing Is Likely to Be Affordable

Note: ARK had estimated previously that an autonomous taxi could price at $0.35 per mile. We have refined our estimates and believe that autonomous taxis could be even cheaper, at only $0.25 per mile. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Morton Salt Company Records, American Automobile Association (AAA).

Adjusted for inflation, the cost to own and operate a personal car has not changed since the Model T rolled off the first assembly line. ARK estimates that, at scale, autonomous taxis will cost consumers $0.25 per mile, spurring widespread adoption.

$1.70

$0.70 $0.70 $0.70

$0.25

1871 1934 1950 2016 2021

Cost Per Mile of a Personally Owned Vehicle(2019 Dollars)

2024

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 7: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

7 |

The Winning Autonomous Ridehailing Platforms Should Be Worth Roughly $1.4 Trillion Today

Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019

Based on Waymo’s and Cruise Automation’s missed deadlines for driverless commercial service, ARK pushed out its autonomous adoption curve by one year. If commercialization were to take place one year later than we had anticipated, ARK believes future cashflows from autonomous ridehailing should be worth $1 - $2 trillion today.

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Autonomous Ridehailing Cashflows During the Next 10 Years(Estimated 10-Year Net Present Value, Cumulative)

2020 Start Date 2019 Start Date

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ions

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)

2019 Start Date; Original Forecast

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 8: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

8 |

Today’s Ridehailing Companies Are Unlikely to Sustain Current Valuations In The Autonomous Future

[1] Take-rate refers to the percentage of the value of the transactions companies facilitate that they get to keep as net revenue. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.

ARK believes ridehailing company take-rates1 probably will drop from 20-30% today to 1-5% as they evolve into lead generators. The majority of fees will go to ridehailing platform providers that own and develop autonomous technology.

$0.24 T $0.18 T $0.1 T $0.3 T $0.5 T

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Ridehailing Valuations Based on Estimated Net Present Value Of Autonomous Ridehailing Cashflows During Next 10 Years

Ridehailing Autonomous Ridehailing Platforms

RidehailingValuations include:UberLyftGrabGetDidiOlaCruise AutomationCabifyHyundai Aptiv JVCaocao ZhuancheYandexUCARYidaoGo-JekPony.AI

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 9: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

9 |

Sizing the Opportunity

Note: ARK’s estimate for market capitalization is using our global adoption curve and revenue estimates, assuming software like margins and cash flow for platform operators, and discounting cash flows from 10 years forward.Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019

ARK believes that the autonomous ridehailing opportunity should be worth more than $1 trillion dollars today, $5 trillion by 2024, and $9 trillion by 2029.

$0.2 T$1 T

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Ridehailing Automakers Energy Sector

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Market Capitalization in 2019

$1.4 T

$5 T

$9 T

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2019(Should Be)

2024 2029

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Estimated Cumulative 10-Year Net Present Value Of Autonomous Ridehailing Cashflows

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 10: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

10 |

Autonomous Air Travel Has Become Both Possible and Affordable

*JFK – John F. Kennedy International Airport | **Note: Prices shown for drone technology are in the future when each technology reaches scale. While ARK estimates drone delivery services will commercialize in the next 5-10 years, exact dates will be dependent on regulatory approval. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019

Battery technology is improving, enough so that flight reserves meet regulations, enabling air taxis and air ambulances to take to the skies safely. In addition, machine learning improvements have enabled autonomous flight, reducing costs dramatically.

$7.80

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Remotely Piloted Autonomous

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ange

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Distance from Manhattan to JFK*

In 2020 batteries should accommodate 12-mile flights

+ reserves for safety

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 11: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

11 |

The Cost To Transport People and Things Today Should Decline Dramatically as Drones Create New Markets

*Ambulance transports patient to hospital and assumes eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) transports only first responder to patient. | Note: Prices shown for drone technology are in the future when each technology reaches scale. While ARK estimates drone delivery services will commercialize in the next 5-10 years, exact dates will be dependent on regulatory approval. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Bridges, Dash. “I Made $10,378 in 1 Year Working for DoorDash Part Time.” The Rideshare Guy Blog and Podcast, 22 Aug. 2019, arkinv.st/37osrPo.

$195

$74

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

Helicopter Air Taxi (at scale)

Price of Transport to Airport

$1,000

$360$150

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

Ground Ambulance eVTOL Ambulance Autonomous eVTOL Ambulance (at scale)

Price of Ambulance Trip*

$4.80

$0.20 $-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

Human Drone (at scale)

Price of a 3-Mile Food Delivery

$140

$0.25 $0

$50

$100

$150

Bike Courier Drone (at scale)

Price of a 30-Minute Parcel Delivery(10 Miles)

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 12: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

12 |

Electric Air Taxis Should Provide Faster and Cheaper Transport, Especially Above Traffic Bottlenecks

$195

$74 $65

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Helicopter Air Taxi(at scale)

Taxi Autonomous Taxi(at scale)

NYC Subway

Cost and Convenience of Travel Options From Manhattan to JFK*

Cost Time (min)

*JFK – John F. Kennedy International AirportForecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 13: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

13 |

Sizing the Opportunity

Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019

Drone delivery platforms could generate $275 billion in delivery revenue, $39 billion in hardware sales, and $12 billion in mapping revenue by 2030.

Why Invest In Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 14: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

14 |

5 REASONS INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER ARKQ

1. Exposure To Innovation: Aims for thematic multi-cap exposure to disruptive innovation elements including robotics, autonomous vehicles, energy storage, 3D printing, and space exploration.

2. Growth Potential: Aims to capture long-term growth with low correlation of relative returns to traditional growth strategies and negative correlation to value strategies.

3. Tool For Diversification: Offers a tool for diversification due to little overlap with traditional indices. It can be a complement to traditional value/growth strategies.

4. Grounded In Research: Combines top-down and bottom-up research in its portfolio management to identify innovative companies and convergence across markets.

5. Cost Effective: Seeks to provide a lower cost alternative to mutual funds with true active management in an exchange traded fund (ETF) that invests in rapidly moving themes.

ARK Seeks To Capture Autonomous Technology And Robotics?

Page 15: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

15 |

ARK Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF (ARKQ)

Advancements in robotics, 3D printing, modern infrastructure, space exploration, and energy storage technology are enhancing productivity while reducing costs. ARKQ is focused on the disruptive innovations transforming manufacturing, production, and infrastructure.

All cap, cross-sector exposureConviction-weighted equities

Ticker: ARKQFund AUM: $162 MillionHoldings: 30-50 U.S. Equities/U.S.-listed ADRsExpense Ratio: 0.75%

SECTORSInformation Technology 51.3%Industrials 23.6%Consumer Discretionary 17.0%Communication Services 5.7%Health Care 2.2%Not Classified 0.2%

TOP 10 HOLDINGS WeightTESLA INC 10.9%PROTO LABS INC 7.5%STRATASYS LTD 7.4%XILINX INC 6.6%MATERIALISE NV-ADR 6.5%2U INC 5.9%AEROVIRONMENT INC 4.4%AUTODESK INC 4.1%TERADYNE INC 3.0%TRIMBLE INC 3.0%

59.3%

PORTFOLIO COMPOSITIONAutonomous Vehicles 33.4%

3D Printing 29.7%

Robotics 23.6%

Energy Storage 7.1%

Development of Infrastructure 3.1%

Space Exploration 2.9%

Alternate Energy Sources <1%

Innovative Materials <1%

MARKET CAPITALIZATIONMega (100 B+) 9.8%Large (10-100 B) 41.4%Medium (2-10 B) 19.8%Small (300M-2B) 26.5%Micro (50-300M) 2.3%

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC; All data as of March 31, 2020

Holdings are subject to change and should not be considered as investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. The securities identified do not representall of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for client accounts. It should not be assumed that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable.

ARK Innovation ETFs

Page 16: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

16 |

Thematic Strategies Focused on Disruptive Innovation

ARKKARK Innovation ETF

ARKWARK Next Generation Internet ETF *

ARKQARK Autonomous Tech. & Robotics ETF *

ARKGARK Genomic Revolution ETF

ARKFARK Fintech Innovation ETF

PRNTThe 3D Printing ETF

IZRLIsrael Innovative Technology ETF

*Effective as of November 4, 2019, the name of the ARK Web x.0 ETF changed to the “ARK Next Generation Internet ETF” and the name of the ARK Industrial Innovation ETF changed to the “ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF.”

ARK Innovation ETFs

Page 17: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

17 |

©2020, ARK Investment Management LLC. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the expresswritten permission of ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”).

The information provided is for informational purposes only and is subject to change without notice. This presentation does not constitute, either explicitly orimplicitly, any provision of services or products by ARK, and investors should determine for themselves whether a particular investment management service issuitable for their investment needs. All statements made regarding companies or securities are strictly beliefs and points of view held by ARK, and are notendorsements by ARK of any company or security or recommendations to buy, sell or hold any security. Historical results are not indications of future results.

Certain of the statements contained in this presentation may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based onARK's current views and assumptions, and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differmaterially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The matters discussed in this presentation may also involve risks and uncertainties describedfrom time to time in ARK's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ARK assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking informationcontained in this presentation. ARK and its clients as well as its related persons may (but do not necessarily) have financial interests in securities or issuers thatare discussed. Certain information was obtained from sources that ARK believes to be reliable; however, ARK does not guarantee the accuracy orcompleteness of any information obtained from any third party.

ARK Investment Management LLC3 East 28th Street, 7th FloorNew York, NY 10016

CONTACTS

Rebecca L. Burke Vice President | National ETF Sales Resolute Investment Managers, Inc.M. 978.609.0553 [email protected]

Matt Murphy, CFA, CAIAVice President | National ETF SalesResolute Investment Managers, Inc.M. [email protected]

Factsheet, prospectus, and latest performance reports are available for download on our website: ark-funds.com/investor-material

ARK Investment Management LLC

Page 18: Why Invest in Autonomous Technology and Robotics?...Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 Based on Waymo’s and Cruise

18 |

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives and risks as well as charges and expenses of an ARKETF before investing. This and other information are contained in the ARK ETFs’ prospectuses, which may beobtained by visiting www.ark-funds.com. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing.Fund Risks: The principal risks of investing in ARKQ: Equity Securities Risk. The value of the equity securities the Fund holds may fall due to general marketand economic conditions. Foreign Securities Risk. Investments in the securities of foreign issuers involve risks beyond those associated with investments inU.S. securities. Consumer Discretionary Risk. Companies in this sector may be adversely impacted by changes in domestic/international economies,exchange/interest rates, social trends and consumer preferences." Consumer Discretionary has shown up for a number of quarters in this factsheet in theSector Weight section in the #2 position so I think it is more than appropriate to add a specific sector risk. Information Technology Sector Risk. Companiesmay face rapid product obsolescence due to technological developments and frequent new product introduction, unpredictable changes in growth ratesand competition for the services of qualified personnel. Detailed information regarding the specific risks of ARKQ ETF can be found in the prospectus.

Additional risks of investing in ARKQ include market, management and non-diversification risks, as well as fluctuations in market value and NAV. Shares ofARKQ are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the ETF. ETF shares may only be redeemed directly with theETF at NAV by Authorized Participants, in very large creation units. There can be no guarantee that an active trading market for ETF shares will develop or bemaintained, or that their listing will continue or remain unchanged. Buying or selling ETF shares on an exchange may require the payment of brokeragecommissions and frequent trading may incur brokerage costs that detract significantly from investment returns.

The Fund’s exposure to cryptocurrency may change over time and, accordingly, such exposure may not always be represented in the Fund’s portfolio. Manysignificant aspects of the U.S. federal income tax treatment of investments in bitcoin are uncertain and an investment in bitcoin may produce income that isnot treated as qualifying income for purposes of the income test applicable to regulated investment companies, such as the Fund. GBTC is expected to betreated as a grantor trust for U.S. federal income tax purposes, and therefore an investment by the Fund in GBTC will generally be treated as a directinvestment in bitcoin for such purposes. See ‘‘Taxes’’ in the Fund’s SAI for more information.

Portfolio holdings will change and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Pleasevisit www.ark-funds.com for the most current list of holdings for the ARK ETFs.

The information herein is general in nature and should not be considered financial, legal or tax advice. An investor should consult a financial professional, anattorney or tax professional regarding the investor’s specific situation. Certain information was obtained from sources that ARK believes to be reliable;however, ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third party.

ARK Investment Management LLC is the investment adviser to the ARK ETFs.

Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.

Disclosure