why climate-smart agriculture?
TRANSCRIPT
Why climate-smart agricultureRegional Asia-Pacific Workshop on Climate Smart Agriculture: A Call for Action
Bangkok, 18 June 2015Suan Pheng Kam http://www.worldfishcenter.org/
The Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is one of the 16 CRPs
The three pillars of climate-smart agriculture
Enhance achievement of agricultural development and national food security goals
• FAO (2010) defines climate-smart agriculture as consisting of three main pillars:
1. Sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes;
2. Building resilience to climate change (through adaptation); and
3. Reducing and/or removing greenhouse gases emissions where possible (through mitigation)
Why climate-smart agriculture in the Asia-Pacific region
THE ASIA-PACIFIC IS AN ENORMOUSLY DIVERSE REGION THAT IS VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE1
1Agriculture in the broad sense: crops, livestock, fish production
• >60% of world’s population; >50% of population in coastal zones• Agriculture dominates land use • A leading producer of food commodities
• Largest producer of rice and animal products regionally• India is the largest producer of milk• China is the largest producer of pigs and aquaculture products• Thailand and Vietnam together form the largest exporters of shrimp and
catfish• 87% of world’s smallholder farms, mainly rainfed
Why climate-smart agriculture in the Asia-Pacific region
Asia-Pacific: challenges for agriculture
• Population is growing • Increasing demand for agricultural products – food, fibre, fuel• Average calorie consumption is rising• 60% more food will be needed by 2050, to be produced on
less land and water (i.e. sustainable intensification)• The future of agriculture in the Asia Pacific region
depends on it being climate smart
Changing climate: warmer, wetter, wierder
‘Virtually certain’• Warming of atmosphere and oceans• Diminishing of snow, ice and permafrost
‘Very likely’ • Fewer cold days and nights, more hot days and nights• Warm spells/heat waves• Generally wetter, some areas drier• Faster sea level rise, in 95% of ocean area
‘Likely’• Heavy rainfall events over more areas• Area affected by drought increases; delay in onset of rains• Intense extreme coastal events increase
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
Changing climate: warmer, wetter, wierder
Risks from changing climate
Source: IPCC Climate change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
Increasing risk
CLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING CROP YIELDS
Mean relative yield change (%) from reference period (1980–2010) compared to local mean temperature change (°C) Source: Rosenzweig et al., 2014
Median yield change (%) for RCP8.5 with CO2 effects for main crops, without and with explicit N stressSource: Rosenzweig et al., 2014
The costs of not being climate smart
Source: Myers et al., 2014. Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature DOI:10.1038/Nature13179
The costs of not being climate smartCLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING NUTRITIONAL QUALITY OF FOOD
Countries below the dashed line are part of the Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDC) 2014 list. Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao’s People’s Democratic Republic and Vanuatu were in the 2010 LIFDC list.
The costs of not being climate smartCLIMATE CHANGE WILL AFFECT HUMAN NUTRITIONAL BALANCE
The costs of not being climate smartCLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING FISH PRODUCTION
The costs of not being climate smart
How climate change might affect plans to derive livelihoods from fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific
CLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING FISH PRODUCTION
Livestock production in the Asia Pacific: largely based on grazing and mixed farming systems•Supports >35% of poor households•By 2020, 30-40% of global milk and meat will be produced in Asia
CC impacts on livestock:•Negative effect of elevated temperature and higher rainfall variability on pasture productivity •Direct effects of elevated temperature and solar radiation on
• production (growth, meat, milk yield and quality, egg yield, weight and quality)
• reproductive performance• animal health, immune response and disease susceptibility
The costs of not being climate smartCLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
Source: wsm.wsu.edu/researcher/wsmaug11_billions.pdf
The costs of not being climate smartARE MOST SEVERELY FELT BY THE POOR
The costs of not being climate smartFOOD PRICES SPIKE IN YEARS OF EXTREME CLIMATE TRIGGER SOCIAL UNREST
Sustainable productivity improvement
Diversification/integration is also intensification in a sustainable way
MANURE
FIELDS
CUT FODDER
LIVESTOCK FISH POND
STUBBLE
POND MUD
Integrated Agriculture-Aquaculture (IAA) boosts farm income
Adaptation measures for greater resilience
Agriculture, forestry and other land use
Mitigation measures
Mitigation measures
- Case of the livestock industry
Complementing climate-smart practices
Farm and food systems issues
Landscapes and regional issues
Institutional and policy issues
Sustainable productivity improvement
Breed crops, livestock, fish for a climate changed world Sustainable intensification and integrated farming of crops, livestock, fish Improve nutrient and water management and flows
Integrated models for prioritizing practices and managing trade-offs Restore degraded farm lands, wetlands and forests
Strengthen science-policy linkage Policy support to overcome barriers to CSAUnderstand trade-offs of diversification vs specializationGender and class equity
Building resilience
Conservation agricultureAdjust crop calendarsUse different crop cultivars and animal species/strainsIntegrated pest, disease and weed management
Shift production areas over a changing landscapeImprove ecosystem services: enhance role of forests and agro-forestry in disaster protection, water and biodiversity provision
Enhanced weather forecasting and advisory services Empower women and the poorPro-poor financing and insurance mechanisms
Reducing GHG emission, enhancing GHG removal
Improve soil carbon storage through good agronomy Develop carbon sequestration options Culture and consume lower down the food chain
Increase energy use efficiency in food supply chainsInnovative use of biomass and by-products
Incentives for pro-poor mitigation
The three pillars of CSA at scale
CSA: No regrets What’s new
1. Increased emphasis on a systems context, drawing on the notion of sustainable intensification to increase productivity with minimal environmental and climate change impacts
2. Longer term perspective on development pathways; climate change is a slow variable
3. More attention on assessing and managing climate risks
4. Greater emphasis on developing capacity to deal with uncertainty and trade-offs
5. Thinking about emissions too
6. Measuring efficacy of adaptation and mitigation efforts
SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM
Global climate and environmental changes
Finite natural resources-Land -Water-Forests-Aquatic resources
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Population growth and migration
Urbanization
Food availability and access
Culture and behavior
Changing food habits
Poverty
Market forces
Trade
Policies and regulations
Governance
VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE
AwarenessPlanning
ImplementationMonitoring and evaluation
SCIENCE AND POLICYDESIRED OUTCOMES
Food securityResilient agricultureHealthy livelihoods
ComprehensiveCollaborative
Committed
Modified from Steenwerth, et al., 2014
CSA in the context of the socio-ecological system
Climate-smart agriculture in international development agenda
• Development plans of UN FAO, UN IFAD, World Bank, etc. • Sustainable and food secure pathways in discussions at
• Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development;• 1st and 2nd Global Conferences on Agriculture, Food
Security and Climate Change; and • Agriculture, Landscapes and Livelihoods Day at COP18
• May 2015 IPCC meeting on CC, Food and Agriculture recognized multi-functionality of agriculture; special report proposed on “Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security”
• June 2015 UNFCC climate talks in Bonn: ensuring agriculture is in the global climate deal (Dec in Paris)
Implementing CSA the holistic way
Embedding climate change in sustainable agriculture
CGIAR’s 2016-2030 Research Strategy and Agenda
– Source: CGIAR CRPII Draft Portfolio Narrative.docxForests
Climate change: a cross-cutting issue
Regional initiatives:•Regional climate outlook•Coordinate agriculture and forestry for sustainable landscapes•Build innovation platforms•Bring science and policy together
CSA: Thinking regionally, acting locally?
Sea-level rise increases tidal and salinity intrusion into low-lying areas of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh •Landscapes become more waterlogged with fresh and saline water at different times of the year•Farmers adapt by shifting from rice mono-cropping to diverse aquaculture-horticulture-rice systems
Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh
Aquaculture-Horticulture- Rice System Fish rings in rice fields – microhabitats for fish
Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh
• WorldFish and local partners provide technical support for aquaculture by• Improving genetics of fishes• Enhancing the capacity of hatcheries to produce quality seed• Strengthening the private feed industry to produce quality feeds and provide
advice on feeding practices• Support community-level efforts to sustain diverse population of local fish
species for culture in farming landscapes
Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh
Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia in Bangladesh (CSISA-BD)Aquaculture for Income and Nutrition (AIN)• Introduce aquaculture to diversify income sources and improve
food and nutrition security, especially among poor and landless rural households
Building adaptive capacity in the Mekong region
Integrating fisheries into local agro-ecosystem analysis for improved water allocationSupporting rice field fisheries and community-based fish cultureIdentify and improve productivity of best practice climate smart Aquaculture & IAA farming systemsOptimizing water harvesting for pond aquaculture operations in flood plainsManaging conflict associated with water allocation and water quality in the Mekong Delta
Building adaptive capacity in the Mekong region
Scenario of increased salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam
Source: SIWRP
Floating hapa cages adapted for fish farming in the wet season (left) and in the dry season (right)
Thank You