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TRANSCRIPT
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Why account for environmental change ?
Hitomi RankineEnvironment and Development Division
Economic and Social Commission f d h ffor Asia and the Pacific
Valuing and Accounting for the Environment in the Asia region
8-10 October Bangkok
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
UN Regional Commission UN Regional Commission
Promoting Green Growth since 2005
Green growth as A-P strategy for Sustainable development - 5th Ministerial Conference on Environment and Development (2005)
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Asia-Pacific development context
U t d i t t tUnmet needs, persistent poverty
Rising inequality
Converging crises -food, fuel, climate & resource
Increasing risks - Natural disaster, climate change, economic
Asia-Pacific development context
Human CapitalHuman Capitalsocial exclusion
Low labor productivityWidening income gaps
social exclusionLow labor productivityWidening income gaps
Natural CapitalNatural Capital
ExploitingExploiting
High resource intensityRising environmental pressure
High resource intensityRising environmental pressure
Widening income gapsWidening income gaps
A vicious “growth” cycle
Low economicDynamism/ resilience
High economic vulnerability
Low economicDynamism/ resilience
High economic vulnerability
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Asia-Pacific development context
The food-fuel crisis in 2008 exposed the vulnerability of Asian economies to resource
The food-fuel crisis in 2008 exposed the vulnerability of Asian economies to resource Asian economies to resource price volatility
Food prices increased 40% over the past year and will increase 30% in next 10 years (OECD, FAO)
volatile and high commodity prices are likely to become
Asian economies to resource price volatility
Food prices increased 40% over the past year and will increase 30% in next 10 years (OECD, FAO)
volatile and high commodity prices are likely to become $50
$75
$100
$125
$150
100
150
200
250
300
US
D /
Ba
rre
l
(20
02
-04
= 1
00
)
Food
Crude oil
Recent
FAO food price index and Brent crude oil price, January 2004 to December 2010
p ythe “new normal” (ESCAP Survey 2012)
p ythe “new normal” (ESCAP Survey 2012) $0
$25
0
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ind
ex
( Recent trends
Why account for environmental change ?
More realistic economic strategies …
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Unsustainable resource use Asia-Pacific uses > 3 x
resources to produce $1 of GDP, compared to th t f th ld
Domestic material consumption intensity
Asia-Pacificthe rest of the world
100-year global resource price trend reversing in last 10 years with AP region leading (McKinsey & C 2011)
Rest of world
Company, 2011)
Source: CSIRO and UNEP Asia Pacific Material Flows database - www.csiro.au/AsiaPacificMaterialFlows
Unsustainable resource use
Average Annual Growth Rate of material use
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2008
GKyrgyzstan
Mongolia
1990
Papua N. G.Mongolia
Intensity of material use (per GDP) – Mekong region countries
FijiSri Lanka
BangladeshIndonesiaCambodia
IndiaPakistan
TurkmenistChinaNepal
KazakhstanTajikistan
UzbekistanViet NamLao PDR
Papua N. G.
MalaysiaKyrgyzstan
TurkmenistanPhilippinesIndonesia
BangladeshThailand
KazakhstanFiji
PakistanViet NamLao PDR
IndiaChinaNepal
0 10 20 30 40
JapanSingapore
R. of KoreaN. Zealand
AustraliaThailandMalaysia
PhilippinesFiji
0 10 20 30 40 50
JapanN. ZealandSingaporeTajikistan
R. of KoreaAustralia
UzbekistanSri LankaMalaysia
ESCAP’s role - Expanding awareness & data access
www.csiro/AsiaPacificMaterialFlows
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ESCAP eco-efficiency indicator project 2007- 2009
Defined flexible EEI framework
Pilot applications in Viet Nam (Central Pilot applications in Viet Nam (Central Institute for Economic Management) & Cambodia (MoE)
EEI Viet Nam pilot – water intensities
Why account for environmental change ?
Better policy & decision-making tools …
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Developing a new integrated economic modeling platform …ESCAP/CSIRO/Univ. of Sydney study tour, September 2013, Canberra
Linking climate change, resource use, land use and economic activityuse, and economic activity..
Can we really use this at the national level ?
- Yes .. but we need environmental satellite accounts
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Why account for environmental change ?
For a better understanding of the quality of our growth
Green Growth Green Growth
Green GrowthStrategy to cope with resource and climate crisis
• Conventional growth paradigm based on cheap labor and resources
• Focuses on quantity of growth, not quality
• Low productivity of labor & very resource and pollution intensive
• Leads to social exclusion and environmental unsustainability
Brown Growth
• Investment in human (labor) and natural (resources) capital
• Improvement of labor productivity and resource efficiency
• Improves quality of growth: higher productivity and resource efficiency
Green Growth (invest)
(exploit)
Vicious cycle /Quantity of Growth
Virtuous cycle/Quality of Growth
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Virtuous cycle/Quality of Growth
Human CapitalHuman Capital
High labor productivitySocial inclusion
Closing income gaps
High labor productivitySocial inclusion
Closing income gaps
Natural CapitalNatural Capital
g g pg g p
High resource efficiencyLow resource intensity
Lower environmental pressures
High resource efficiencyLow resource intensity
Lower environmental pressures
InvestingInvesting
High economicDynamism/ resilience
Low economic vulnerability
High economicDynamism/ resilience
Low economic vulnerability
A possible framework for assessing quality of growth (work in progress)
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Assessing quality of growth indicators(work in progress)
Why account for environmental change ?
To support a shift to investment in natural capital “goods”
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Environmental tax/fiscal reform : shifting tax base from income/labor to resource consumption/pollution Double Dividend
Powerful tool for GG/GE and sustainable development p• Double Dividend of improving ecological efficiency and increasing
Employment and Growth simultaneously (GE) is possible.
• Provides opportunities for financing “Goods” – revenue recycling into socially and environmentally desirable investments
Taxing the “Bads”
REVENUE NEUTRALITY
Taxing the “Bads” not the “Goods”
Low CarbonGreen Growth Road Map for Asia and the Pacific
• Main guide
• Summary for policymakers
• 63 fact sheets
• 51 case studies
• 8 policy papers
http://www.unescap.org/esd/environment/lcgg/
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New Learning Management System on-linewww.greengrowth-elearning.org/lms
Online e-learning facility
Environmental tax/fiscal reform : shifting tax base from income/labor to resource consumption/pollution
Double Dividend
Powerful tool for GG/GE and sustainable development • Double Dividend of improving ecological efficiency and increasing p g g y g
Employment and Growth simultaneously (GE) is possible.
• Provides opportunities for financing “Goods” – revenue recycling into socially and environmentally desirable investments
- Taxing the “Bads” not the “Goods”
REVENUE NEUTRALITY
- Shifting investments to natural & human capital
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Shifting investment patterns -expanding the investor base
•Global economies/
Biodiversity support
Soil erosion controlAquifer rechargeWater flow regulationWater quality
CO2 sequestrationsocieties
•Hydropower util.•Water util. •Beverage co. •H2O users•Agro-industry
•Ecotourism •Agro-industryy pp
Scenic/landscape beauty
Flood mitigation Coastal protection
Agro-industry•Rural communities
•Vulnerable Settlements•Private sector
Expanding the investor base (forests)
Traditional management
Management for How much management
for timber production
Private sector (plantations)
L l
service provision
Ecotourism operators Local governments Water utilities Hydropower companies Water users Energy users Beverage producers
should we invest?
Why should Local
governments
Local communities
Beverage producers Agro-industries Local communities Farmers
Why should we pay ?
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Thank youy