Who’s Fooling Whom?The Real Drivers Behind the 2010/11 Food Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa

Meghan SappSecretary General

Food vs. Fuel?Food price spikes—2008/09, 2009/10,

2010/11Crop failures, low global cereals stocks,

increased demand for feed, increased demand for meat

Maize riotsEU REDUS RFS

Biofuels to blame?75%?!

The Biofuels Blame Game

Lots of questions, even more assumptions, but few answers.

The study269 price series of six staple crops

cassavamaizemilletricesorghumand wheat

20 African food marketsWhat’s the impact on African food prices during

the spikes?

Where’s the price transmission?Consumed locally:

SorghumMaize CassavaMillet

Imports:Wheat—EU, Australia, US, Canada,

ArgentinaRice—Thailand

Results

So how do you blame biofuels for food insecurity in Africa?

Causes of food insecurityUnderinvestment in agricultureLack of market accessLack of storagePostharvest lossesEU/US agricultural subsidiesRising oil pricesLack of energy access

What food insecurity looks like

Under-investment in agriculture

Under-investment in agriculture

“A 1% gain in GDP originating from agriculture will generate a 6% increase in overall expenditure of the poorest 10% of the population; in contrast a 1% gain in GDP originating from non-agricultural sectors creates zero growth” (Conway and Wilson. 2013).

Proportion of income spent on food

Lack of storageWithout storage:

Surpluses spoil and go to wasteInability to hold supplies back from

market until prices are higherMarkets flood in times of surplus, no

ability to store stock during times of poor crops

With storage:Communities better able to manage

stocks Farmers get better pricesCrops retain nutrition levels

Postharvest lossesFAO defines “postharvest losses” as a

measurable quantitative and qualitative loss in a given product. These losses can happen in any of the post-harvest phases, which are identified as harvest, handling, threshing, drying, storage, packaging and transport.

OECD countries: losses occur largely at the consumption stage

Africa: most losses are due to poor processing, handling and storage. FAO estimates postharvest grain losses in SSA reach about US$4 billion a year.

Postharvest lossesFAO study: Global food losses and wastefor cereals: roughly 25% for root crops and fruits and vegetables: roughly 30% for oilseeds: 40-50%for meat and dairy: 20% fish losses: 30%

Leads to:Low farmer incomeHigher food prices by removing food from supply

EU and US agricultural subsidies

EU and US agricultural subsidies

Direct farmer subsidies and crop supportsSubsidised insuranceDumpingNon-tariff trade barriers

Leads to:Between US$50 billion and US$64 billion

in lost agricultural earnings per yearLower small farmer income by 10%-15%Decline in sugar exports to 54% from 71%

during 1980-2000

Rising oil prices

Lack of energy access

Source: FAO

Finding solutions

Finding solutions

EducationOwnership and financeAgro-Ecological ZoningReducing postharvest lossesIntegrated food and energy systems

EducationKnowledge feedback loop

AgricultureIncreased yieldsHigher returnsMore income to spend on education and health

Health and sanitationHealthy people make better farmersKnowledge reduces disease transmissionHealth directly impacts agricultural yields

Educated women have better access to financial decision makingWomen typically responsible for food; men

typically responsible for cash crops

Ownership and finance

Linked to educationMicro-financeMicro-insuranceLand tenureImproved roles for women

Agro-Ecological Zoning

• Brazil• Sugarcane and oil palm

• Mozambique• 1:1.000.000• 1:250.000

• Senegal• FGV• Not yet implemented

• Opportunities to improve land tenure, increase investor confidence, reduce food insecurity risks

Reducing postharvest losses

World Bank:Better management along the PH chainPest and storage managementInstitutional arrangement for better marketingSupport for technological improvements and adoption of better practices

Introduction of technologies to reduce PHLStorageProcessingPowered by bioenergy from crop waste

Integrated food and energy systems

Thank you for your attention.

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