who remits? an examination of emigration by education level and gender
TRANSCRIPT
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Who Remits? An Examination ofEmigration by Education Level and
GenderArusha Cooray1,2
1School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia and 2Centre for Applied
Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
1. INTRODUCTION
CURRENTLY, more than 215 million people live outside their country of birth (World
Bank, 2011). The stock of out-migrants for the world stands at 215.8 million or 3.2 per
cent (Ratha et al., 2011).1 Examining the educational attainment of emigrants, in total there
are 43.6 per cent with primary education, 35 per cent with secondary education and 21.5
per cent with tertiary qualifications (Dumont et al., 2010). The number of emigrants with
primary education exceeds the number with secondary and tertiary education in absolute
terms. A disaggregation of migrants by gender indicates that on average, 51 per cent of
migrants are female. The percentage is slightly lower at 49 per cent for non-OECD coun-
tries (Dumont et al., 2010). The benefits of migration accrued in the form of remittances,
comprises a large source of external funding to nations, particularly developing nations, with
receipts having increased phenomenally over the 2000 to 2010 period. The top five remit-
tance receiving countries in 2010 (in absolute terms) were India ($55.0 bn), China
($51.0 bn), Mexico ($22.6 bn), Philippines ($21.3 bn) and France ($15.9 bn). The top five
remittance receiving countries in 2009 as a percentage of GDP were Tajikistan (35.1 per
cent), Tonga (27.7 per cent), Lesotho (24.8 per cent), Moldova (23.1 per cent) and Nepal
(22.9 per cent) (Ratha et al., 2011).
Neoclassical migration theory views emigrants as individual, rational players who decide
to move on the basis of a cost–benefit calculation. This theory perceives migration as
leading to an optimal allocation of resources through which wages are equalised across
countries with the movement of labour from surplus to scarce countries. Structuralists cri-
tique the neoclassical theory stating that individuals do not have a free choice to move as
they are fundamentally constrained by structural forces or alternatively and are forced to
move due to economic and political reasons (de Haas, 2007). Dependency theorists argue
that migration is not necessarily an overall beneficial process as it leads to an extraction
of labour from the periphery to core deepening the vicious cycle of poverty in the periph-
ery and accelerating growth of the core. There are, however, a number of push and pull
forces brought about by demographic change, globalisation, political conflict and climate
I wish to thank an anonymous referee for valuable comments.
1 Note that the Ratha et al. (2011) estimates suffer from several shortcomings. They are based on esti-mations and interpolations. The bilateral migration data are generated by applying weights based onbilateral migrant stocks from population censuses of individual countries. Where the data appear incom-plete or inconsistent, secondary sources have been used (See Ratha and Shaw, 2007 for greater detail).
© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 1441
The World Economy (2014)doi: 10.1111/twec.12154
The World Economy
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change that have increased migration pressures both within and across borders (de Haas,
2007).2
Among the push factors for labour migration are poverty, unemployment, inequality and
political conflict. The pull factors include the attraction of higher wages, better living condi-
tions and networks. Jenkins (1977) in a study of the migration of Mexican agricultural work-
ers to the United States (US) observes that a strong push is exerted by labour market
conditions in rural Mexico and a pull by US agricultural wages. Individuals react to oscilla-
tions in the business cycle. Therefore, they are most likely to emigrate when economic condi-
tions at home decline and are less likely to do so when economic conditions improve
(Jenkins, 1977). Similar views are expressed by Hare (1999). In a study of the emigration of
China’s rural population, Hare (1999) argues that migration occurs due to higher wages in
host regions compared to those in source regions. Economic opportunities such as better liv-
ing conditions, better access to basic services and improvements in socioeconomic status in
host nations are among the many pull factors, which may encourage migration (Chowdhury
et al., 2012). Another pull factor is the increased security provided by networks (Massey and
Basem, 1992; Curran and Rivero-Fuentes, 2003; Roberts and Morris, 2003). Networks reduce
migrant risk and increase migrant employment opportunities. The strength of migration net-
works is highlighted in the work of Stark and Jakubek (2013) who show that networks act as
an informal financial cooperation scheme that spans over time and space. Push factors include
unemployment, underemployment and a mismatch between individual skills and job opportu-
nities available at home (Quinn and Rubb, 2005). Additionally, political, ethnic and religious
conflicts and increasing inequality have created an environment in which current and potential
future migration flows have become increasingly more volatile. When an individual migrates,
implicit is the assumption that the migrant will remit part of his/her income back home.
Remittances into the developing economics have been found to have a number of positive
effects at both the macro and microeconomic level. For example, they have served as insur-
ance policies against risks associated with new production activities (Taylor, 1999), helped
low-income households to smoothen their consumption by reducing vulnerability to adverse
domestic shocks (Yang and Choi, 2007), increased the propensity to save (Adams, 2002) and
helped to reduce poverty (Adams and Page, 2005). Remittances have also been found to
reduce income inequality (Taylor, 1999), promote economic growth (Mundaca, 2009), pro-
mote financial sector development (Aggarwal et al., 2006; Giuliano and Ruiz-Arranz, 2009)
and reduce output volatility (Chami et al., 2009). Studies show that females remit more than
their male counterparts. Vanwey (2004) in a study of migrants from Nang Rong in Thailand
finds that male and female migrants behave both altruistically and contractually, but that
females from low-income households behave more altruistically than males from high-income
households. Similarly, Phongpaichit (1993) notes that females remit more both overall and as
a percentage of their income compared to males.
The significance of out-migration and remittances for nations give rise to a number of
questions. How do remittances contribute to the gross domestic product (GDP) of economies?
How does the education level of the emigrant influence remittances? How does the gender of
the emigrant influence remittances? Answers to these questions are of utmost importance for
2 See de Haas (2007) for a survey of the literature. Much of the theoretical work on remittances hasbeen devoted to the primary motive of migrants to remit. Among the motives put forward are altruism(Banerjee, 1984), insurance (Rosenzweig, 1988), investment (Lucas and Stark, 1985), inheritance(Hoddinott, 1994), risk diversification (Stark and Lehvari, 1982).
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identifying the role of emigration in the growth trajectory of the countries under study and for
implementing appropriate policies for emigrants and their families.
The education level of the migrant can have important implications for host and home
nations. There is evidence of both positive and negative effects on host and home countries
due to the emigration of tertiary qualified individuals. The benefits of skilled migrants to host
countries in addition to augmenting the stock of human capital include increasing skill diver-
sity of the workforce and making available trained workers to fill vacant jobs. Migration can
thus boost innovation and productivity growth, by reducing the costs of providing labour-
intensive services (Martin, 2003). From the point of view of source countries, there is a brain
drain resulting in a fall in positive externalities created by skilled workers. If, however,
migrants return, then a ‘brain drain’ in the short term could become a ‘brain gain’ in the
longer term (Martin, 2003). This is because migrants return with new skills acquired abroad,
links to scientific and business networks and higher incomes (Beine et al., 2008). Beine et al.
(2008) and Mountford (1997) argue that the return to education is higher in receiving coun-
tries, and hence, the prospect of migration could encourage greater investment in education in
the source country.
Low-skilled migrants are usually concentrated in lower status jobs that natives do not wish
to engage in such as fruit harvesting, manual jobs in manufacturing and construction (Ahn,
2004). Therefore, there is a pull for migrants from poor nations by fast growing developing
nations for jobs that natives do not wish to undertake. For example, there is a demand from
Malaysia for domestic workers from countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Evidence
shows that some sectors in host societies may not have survived without migrants. The Snowy
Mountains Hydro-Electric Scheme in Australia, for example, was largely dependent on the
work of migrants – seventy per cent of all workers were migrants (Australian Government,
2008). Another important contribution to host societies by migrants is their access to transna-
tional resources provided by other migrants and nationals living abroad. Studies also show
that low-skilled migrants remit more than high-skilled migrants (Niimi et al., 2010; Cooray,
2014). Adverse effects of emigration include competition with native-born workers in the
labour market, displacing them in employment and bidding down wages. Low-skilled
migrants can lower the pace of structural adjustment and technological progress reducing the
economy’s competitiveness in the international market (Djajic, 1997).
The present study is based on cross-sectional data for 2000/2001 for 103 countries. The
point of departure of the study from the literature is as follows: first, the paper examines
simultaneously the effects of emigration on remittances and remittances on GDP. Second, the
study disaggregates the emigration rate by education level and, consequently examines the
effects of the education level of the migrant on remittances, and remittances on GDP. There
is relatively little evidence in the empirical literature on how the education level of migrants’
affects remittances.3 Third, this estimation is also carried out for males and females sepa-
rately.
The study is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the empirical framework and data.
Section 3 evaluates the empirical results. Section 4 discusses policy implications and
concludes.
3 Docquier and Marfouk (2005) use data on the immigration structure by educational attainment andcountry of birth from all OECD receiving countries to estimates of emigration stocks and rates byeducational attainment. The present study in contrast investigates the effect of the education level of theemigrant on home country remittances and remittances on GDP.
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2. THE EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK AND DATA
A recursive system, where the endogenous variables are determined sequentially, is
employed specifically because it is not possible by definition, to directly estimate the contribu-
tion made by the emigrant labour force to source country GDP. Remittances are estimated as
a mediator between out-migration and the home country’s GDP to permit estimation of the
contribution made by migrants working overseas. The basic equation system that is estimated
is as follows:Ri ¼ bi0 þ b1Mi þ b2wi þ e1i; (1)
Yi ¼ ai0 þ a1Ri þ a2zi þ e2i; (2)
where R is the logarithm of migrant remittances, M is the emigration rate, and Y is the loga-
rithm of gross domestic product, in the origin country i. The vector wit in equation (1)
includes intervening factors such as the ratio of M2 to GDP to capture the level of financial
development of the home country (Giuliano and Ruiz-Arranz, 2009), the degree of trade open-
ness measured by the sum of exports and imports to GDP (Chami et al., 2009), as the more
open an economy, the higher the inflow of remittances, and the stock of physical capital to
GDP to capture infrastructural and technological development (Cooray, 2012).
The vector wit in equation (1) also incorporates the rate of inflation in the home country,
interest rate on deposits and the exchange rate in an attempt to capture the motive of migrants
to remit.4 These variables can have either a positive or negative effect on the volume of
remittances. Katseli and Glytsos (1989) interpret the high level of inflation in the home coun-
try as a measure of the degree of political and economic uncertainty in that country. Higher
inflation may be positively or negatively related to remittance flows depending on the motive
to remit. For example, if the motive to remit was self-interest, higher inflation in the home
country would reduce remittance flows due to increased uncertainty. Conversely, if altruism
were the motive to remit, due to the increased cost of living faced by the migrant workers’
family, the volume of remittances would increase. If high interest rates on deposits at home
are a reflection of high levels of inflation (Elbadawi and Rocha, 1992), they could encourage
or discourage more remittance flows depending on whether they are sent with an altruistic or
self-interested motive. If remittances were sent with an investment motive, high interest rates
at home could increase the volume of remittances (Lianos, 1997). The exchange rate similarly
can have both a positive and negative effect on remittances. A depreciation of the home cur-
rency could lead to an increase in the volume of remittances due to the increased cost of liv-
ing faced by the family at home or expected future exchange rate rises. It could on the other
hand lead to a fall in remittances, if it were a reflection of economic uncertainty. The portfo-
lio diversification or investment motive is closely tied to the concept of risk aversion behav-
iour of migrants. A risk averse migrant would remit less back home in the event of greater
uncertainty.
The vector zi in equation (2) comprises a set of variables that are commonly used in the
growth literature and five regional dummy variables to capture regional heterogeneity. These
variables include the domestic labour force which is a fundamental determinant of economic
growth, the stock of physical capital to GDP, the secondary enrolment ratio to control for the
stock of human capital and the ratio of M2 to GDP to capture financial sector development.
4 A strand of literature examines macroeconomic financial factors in portfolio choice decision-making orthe investment motive of migrants (Swamy, 1981; Katseli and Glytsos, 1989).
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Given that emigration rates and the education level of emigrants differ across regions, five
regional dummy variables are created for Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia and
the Pacific, South America and the Caribbean, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia with the
high-income OECD countries as the benchmark group. e1i and e2i are random disturbance
terms that capture the aggregate effect of all other factors.
Estimation is also carried out by disaggregating the emigrant labour force in equation (1)
by education level, to investigate in greater detail, the degree to which the education level of
the labour outflow contributes to remittances and home country GDP. That is, the right hand
side of equation (1) is decomposed as follows:
Ri ¼ bi0 þ b1MPiþ b2MSi þ b3MTi þ b4wi þ e1i: (3)
where MPi= the emigration rate of primary educated; MSi = the emigration rate of secondary
educated; MTi = the emigration rate of tertiary educated. The vector wit denotes the same con-
trol variables mentioned above. This equation is also estimated separately for males and
females.
The data for emigration are obtained from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD, 2000/2001) Database on Immigrants in OECD and non-OECD Coun-
tries (DIOC-E) release 2.0 (see http://www.oecd.org/els/mig/dioc.htm.). This database is com-
piled using census data for 2000/2001 for 161 countries. The data for remittances, however,
are available only for 103 countries. The data used in the empirical analysis therefore are
cross-sectional data for 2000/2001 for the 103 countries for which remittance data are avail-
able. Data for the total emigration rate, emigration rate of primary, secondary and tertiary
educated, and emigration rates of primary, secondary and tertiary educated males and females
are taken from the OECD (DIOC-E) database. Data for remittances, GDP, money supply to
GDP, openness to GDP, gross fixed capital formation to GDP, labour force, rate of inflation,
interest rate and exchange rate are taken from the World Development Indicators.
3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS
The empirical estimation is carried out using both the seemingly unrelated regression
(SUR) and three-stage least squares (3SLS) techniques. Equations (1) and (2) comprise a
recursive system and can be estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) if the error terms
of the two equations are not correlated. If, however, there exists a common set of omitted
variables from the two equations, this could lead to correlation between the error terms. If the
error terms are correlated, the SUR procedure can be used to improve the efficiency of the
OLS estimates. For this purpose, the SUR method is used. Another issue that arises is that
remittances and GDP could be endogenously determined. A country’s level of GDP could also
be a determinant of the amount of remittances it receives. Similarly, remittances by alleviat-
ing liquidity constraints could also influence the emigration rate. Therefore, there could be a
potential endogeneity bias, due to reverse causality. For this reason, the 3SLS estimation
method is also used. The results for the preliminary estimation examining the association
between the main variables of interest are presented in Table 1.
The coefficients on the total emigration rate under both the SUR and 3SLS estimation
methods in columns (1) and (3) are positive and statistically significant at the 1 per cent level,
suggesting that emigration contributes positively to remittances. In column (1), for example,
an increase in the emigration rate by 1 per cent point leads to an increase in remittances by
approximately 0.22 per cent. Similarly, the coefficients on remittances in columns (2) and (4)
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TABLE1
SUR
and3SLSEstim
ates
ofRem
ittancesandGDP
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
SUR
3SLS
SUR
3SLS
RY
RY
RY
RY
Independentvariables
R–
0.540
–0.365
–0.509
–0.170
(0.067)***
(0.156)***
(0.070)***
(0.080)**
Mtotal
0.215
–0.113
––
––
–(0.065)***
(0.024)***
MP
––
––
0.118
–0.114
–(0.029)***
(0.017)***
MS
––
––
0.109
–0.113
–(0.040)***
(0.018)***
MT
––
––
0.032
–0.022
–(0.021)
(0.019)
R2
0.45
0.42
0.30
0.35
0.51
0.45
0.48
0.33
Observations
99
99
99
99
86
86
86
86
Notes:
(i)Standarderrors
reported
inparenthesis.
(ii)***and
**,significantat
the1%
and5%
levelsrespectively.
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under both SUR and 3SLS are statistically significant at the 1 per cent level, suggesting that
remittances have a positive and significant effect on GDP. In column (2), a 1 per cent
increase in remittances for instance will lead to a 0.54 per cent increase in GDP. In columns
(5) and (7), emigration is disaggregated by education level. The coefficients on the emigration
categories by education level indicate that primary and secondary educated migrants have a
positive and significant impact on remittances. In the SUR estimates reported in column (5),
for example, an increase in the emigration rate of those with primary education by 1 per cent
point leads to an increase in remittances by 0.12 per cent, and increase in emigration rate of
those with secondary education by 1 per cent point leads to an increase in remittances by
0.11 per cent. The coefficient on the emigration rate of those who are tertiary qualified is
positive, however, not statistically significant. Remittances continue to have a significant and
positive effect on GDP.
Several robustness tests are employed to check the robustness of the results to the estima-
tion procedure and variables used in the study. The 3SLS estimation procedure is used in
addition to the SUR estimation procedure to correct for any potential endogeneity bias in the
estimates. In addition, a number of control variables are used to investigate the robustness of
the estimates and regional dummy variables to account for regional heterogeneity. Table (2)
incorporates additional control variables to the education disaggregated model.
The estimation is carried out by controlling for country characteristics including regional
dummy variables, the domestic labour force, stock of physical capital, human capital, financial
sector development and openness in the GDP equation, and controlling for financial sector
development, infrastructural development, openness, inflation, interest rates and the exchange
rate in the remittance equation. These results are presented in Table 2. The emigration of pri-
mary and secondary qualified individuals continues to have a positive and significant effect on
remittances, while tertiary qualified migrants do not significantly affect remittances. Column (1)
indicates that an increase in the primary emigration rate by 1 per cent point leads to a 0.14 per
cent increase in remittances and a 1 per cent point increase in the secondary emigration rate
leads to a 0.17 per cent increase in remittances. Similarly, remittances continue to have a posi-
tive and significant impact on GDP. A 1 per cent increase in remittances leads to a 0.11 per cent
increase in GDP in column (2). In the remittance equations in columns (1) and (3), the coeffi-
cients on the stock of capital, financial sector development and openness are positive and signifi-
cant suggesting that a well-developed financial system, infrastructure and openness are
important for migrant remittances. The coefficient on inflation is statistically significant at the 10
per cent level under the 3SLS estimation method, suggesting that an increase in home country
inflation leads to an increase in the volume of remittances. There is some support therefore for
the altruistic motive. The coefficients on the interest rate are positive and significant under both
methods providing some evidence in favour of the investment motive, and the coefficients on
the exchange rate are positive and significant implying that a exchange devaluation leads to more
remittances providing evidence in favour of the altruistic motive.
In the GDP equations in columns (2) and (4), remittances have a positive and significant
effect on GDP. The domestic labour force, capital stock, enrolment ratio, financial sector
development and openness influence GDP positively and significantly. The regional dummy
variables for all regions except for the Middle East and North Africa are statistically
significant and negative. This is reasonable considering that on average all these regions have
a lower GDP compared to the high-income OECD economies.
Next, the estimation in Table 1 is replicated for males and females separately. The results
are reported on Table 3.
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Note that the magnitude of the coefficients on females with primary and secondary
education is greater than the coefficients on primary and secondary educated males in the
remittance equations, suggesting that females remit more than males consistent with the find-
ings of Vanwey (2004). The coefficients on remittances from primary and secondary educated
females are statistically significant at the 1 per cent level under the SUR estimation method
and statistically significant at the 5 per cent level under the 3SLS method. For males,
TABLE 2SUR and 3SLS Estimates of Remittances and GDP with Control Variables
(1) (2) (3) (4)R Y R Y
Independent variables SUR 3SLSR – 0.111 – 0.159
(0.013)*** (0.032)***MP 0.141 – 0.143 –
(0.032)*** (0.032)***MS 0.171 – 0.167 –
(0.040)*** (0.091)**MT 0.030 – 0.122 –
(0.020) (0.120)Labour Force – 0.053 – 0.052
(0.031)* (0.030)*Capital Stock 0.665 0.523 0.458 0.550
(0.212)*** (0.129)*** (0.140)*** (0.131)***Enrolment Ratio – 0.149 – 0.152
(0.047)*** (0.057)***M2 0.120 0.171 0.142 0.091
(0.060)** (0.100)* (0.091)* (0.041)**Openness 0.019 0.122 0.121 0.222
(0.009)** (0.054)** (0.054)** (0.069)***Inflation 0.012 – 0.029 –
(0.020) (0.018)*Interest Rate 0.002 – 0.002 –
(0.001)** (0.001)**Exchange Rate 0.002 – 0.004 –
(0.001)** (0.002)**Africa – –0.042 – –0.096
(0.016)*** (0.042)**Asia and the Pacific – –0.034 – –0.081
(0.014)*** (0.032)***Eastern Europe and Central Asia – –0.028 – –0.034
(0.012)*** (0.019)*Latin America and the Caribbean – –0.014 – –0.024
(0.007)** (0.012)*Middle East and North Africa – –0.017 – –0.029
(0.011) (0.020)R2 0.54 0.86 0.54 0.88
Observations 58 58 58 58
Notes:(i) Standard errors reported in parenthesis.(ii) ***, **, *, significant at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels respectively.
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the coefficients on primary and secondary educated males are statistically significant at the
10 per cent level under both methods. The coefficients on tertiary qualified males and females
are not statistically significant. Remittances continue to have a positive and significant effect
on GDP. The explanatory power of the equations for females is higher than that of males.
The literature also shows that females are more altruistic compared to males. Therefore,
the estimation in Table 2 is replicated for males and females separately. The results are
reported on Table 4. Only SUR estimates are reported to conserve space. The 3SLS estima-
tion yielded similar results.
In the remittance equations, the coefficients on females at all three levels of education are
higher than that on males corroborating the findings reported on Table 3. The coefficients on
the rate of inflation, and the exchange rate, assume greater statistical significance for females
compared to males. For example, the coefficient on the rate of inflation in column (3) is posi-
tive and statistically significant at the 10 per cent level, suggesting that females remit more
when the rate of inflation is high reflecting the altruistic motive. Similarly the coefficient on
the exchange rate is higher and significant for females at the 5 per cent level, whereas it is
positive and significant at the 10 per cent level for males implying that females remit more
when the exchange rate is high, once again suggesting the altruistic motive. The statistical
significance of the coefficients on the rate of interest, however, also provides some evidence
in favour of an investment motive of both males and females.
4. POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
The results of the present study provide evidence in favour of the hypothesis that primary
and secondary educated migrants contribute positively and significantly to source country
income. There is no evidence to show that tertiary qualified migrants contribute significantly
to remittances. These conclusions are supported by Faini (2007) who argues that brain drain
TABLE 3SUR and 3SLS Estimates of Remittances and GDP by Gender
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)SUR SUR 3SLS 3SLS
R Y R Y R Y R Y
Independentvariables
Male Female Male Female
R – 0.572 – 0.592 – 0.172 – 0.160(0.073)*** (0.072)*** (0.068)*** (0.051)***
MP 0.021 – 0.060 – 0.020 – 0.022 –(0.013)* (0.020)*** (0.012)* (0.011)**
MS 0.034 – 0.049 – 0.029 – 0.032 –(0.018)* (0.019)*** (0.016)* (0.014)**
MT 0.027 – 0.018 – 0.010 – 0.040 –(0.110) (0.034) (0.022) (0.035)
R2 0.25 0.36 0.29 0.39 0.20 0.15 0.25 0.26
Observations 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86
Notes:(i) Standard errors reported in parenthesis.(ii) ***, **, *, significant at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels respectively.
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or the migration of skilled workers is associated with a lower propensity to remit because
these migrants are likely to spend more time abroad and be re-united with their families. Sim-
ilar conclusions are put forward by Niimi et al. (2010) who find that remittances fall with the
migrants education level and Cooray (2014) who shows that low-skilled migrants contribute
more to source country income compared to high-skilled migrants. Evidence also shows that
low-skilled migrants remit more as a percentage of their income and also more frequently
TABLE 4SUR Estimates of Remittances and GDP by Gender with Control Variables
(1) (2) (3) (4)R Y R Y
Independent variables Male FemaleR – 0.034 – 0.052
(0.014)*** (0.010)***MP 0.026 – 0.035 –
(0.012)** (0.012)***MS 0.078 – 0.085 –
(0.043)* (0.041)**MT 0.074 – 0.122 –
(0.061) (0.120)Labour Force – 0.099 – 0.065
(0.034)*** (0.030)*Capital Stock 0.247 0.441 0.594 0.321
(0.112)** (0.224)* (0.217)*** (0.125)***Enrolment Ratio – 0.156 – 0.146
(0.032)*** (0.058)***M2 0.161 0.024 0.142 0.024
(0.010)* (0.011)* (0.091)* (0.011)**Openness 0.016 0.125 0.121 0.220
(0.010)* (0.064)* (0.054)** (0.119)*Inflation 0.004 – 0.029 –
(0.014) (0.015)*Interest Rate 0.005 – 0.002 –
(0.002)*** (0.001)*Exchange Rate 0.004 – 0.006 –
(0.002)* (0.002)***Africa – –0.044 – –0.047
(0.013)*** (0.013)**Asia and the Pacific – –0.035 – –0.035
(0.013)*** (0.013)***Eastern Europe and Central Asia – –0.023 – –0.023
(0.011)** (0.011)**Latin America and the Caribbean – –0.010 – –0.016
(0.005)** (0.008)*Middle East and North Africa – –0.010 – –0.019
(0.014) (0.017)R2 0.55 0.89 0.57 0.90
Observations 52 52 52 52
Notes:(i) Standard errors reported in parenthesis.(ii) ***, **, *, significant at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels respectively.
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compared to high-skilled migrants. Datta et al. (2007) in a study of low-skilled migrants to
London find that these individuals emigrate specifically to remit money back home. The
results also show that remittances contribute positively to GDP. The results suggest some evi-
dence of a combination of both the altruistic and self-interested motives to remit. When, how-
ever, the model is estimated for males and females separately, the evidence suggests that
females remit more compared to males and are also more altruistic.
Given the contribution made by primary and secondary educated workers to the GDP of
sending countries, governments should place proper safety nets in place for return migrants,
in particular primary and secondary educated migrants and female migrants. Quinn and Rubb
(2005) show that a push factor for emigration is the mismatch between individual skills and
job opportunities available at home. Therefore, governments of sending countries could strive
to tailor education systems and training programmes to cater to the demands of labour mar-
kets. This would not only reduce the emigration rates of primary and secondary qualified
workers but also tertiary qualified workers and reduce unemployment and underemployment
in sending countries.
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