‘white flight’ in britain?: determinants of exit from diverse wards
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‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards. Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London [email protected] ; twitter: @ epkaufm. White Flight?: Existing evidence base. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
‘White flight’ in Britain?:
Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College, University of London
[email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm
White Flight?: Existing evidence base
• USA: white preference effects whilst controlling for socio/economic individual & neighborhood characteristics (Crowder & South, 2000)
• Europe: White avoidance rather than flight (Brama, 2006) ; No ‘native flight’ in France (Rathelot & Safi 2013); Whites say they would leave diverse areas (van Londen 2012)
• UK: No white flight; counter-urbanisation- but lower class whites significantly more likely to leave diverse areas than lower class mne residents, especially in London (Catney & Simpson, 2010)
Data• Uses 18 waves of BHPS (n=192171 person yrs) and
waves 1-3 of Understanding Society (40,000 per yr)• Attached to geo-referenced data at ward-level
(BHPS linearly interpolated using 1991/2001/2011 census) to capture MNE population, deprivation (Carstairs) and population density.
• Ward-level diversity measured as either % minority, or in Simpson’s quintiles in which each quintile contains a fifth of the mne population (concentration)
Preference to leave by ethnicity and quintile of diversity
1 2 3 4 50
10
20
30
40
50
60Mne go
White go
Quintile of minority concentration
Source: BHPS-UKHLS 1991-2011
Preference to move
• Older residents, home owners and those in lower SEG less likely to prefer to move
• Respondents who are more socially- but not politically- conservative more likely to want to move - but not to actually do so
• **White respondents more likely to prefer to leave if living in more diverse quintiles
Actual move• All respondents more likely to move from
more deprived, diverse and urban wards• Respondents who are white, younger, better-
educated, single, childless, renters more likely to move
• **The odds of moving higher for whites living in wards with higher minority concentration
Predicted probabilities of move by diversity quintile and ethnicity
Source: BHPS 1991-2009; N=102,974, Pseudo R2 = .193
Understanding Society Data 2009-12
• 40k per year compared to 10k per year• Significant sample of far right voters (UKIP,
BNP, Other, N = 2,226), in addition to Tory voters to proxy for anti-diversity orientation
• No interpolation necessary
Understanding Society
• Larger sample size (40k v 10k)• More attitudinal questions pertaining to
neighbourhood• Period of rise of UKIP and BNP• ‘Right’ defined as UKIP+BNP+Conservatives,
proxy for attitude to diversity among whites• Right x % minorities interaction
Minority% in ward
Deprivation of ward
Minority% in ward
Right party x Minority% in ward
Deprivation of ward
Minority% in ward
Right party x Minority% in ward
2nd lag - Local Friends Mean a Lot
Conclusion
• Neither White British nor anti-diversity White British are more likely to want to leave diverse areas than minorities
• Nor are they more like to actually leave when other factors taken into account
• Difficult to support white flight thesis for Britain
• White avoidance may be a possibility
‘White flight’ in Britain?:
Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College, University of London
[email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm