Jason R. Jurjevich, Ph.D. Acting Director, Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies (IMS) and

Population Research Center (PRC) Assistant Professor, Nohad A. Toulan School of Urban Studies and Planning *Collaborative work with Greg Schrock, Ph.D.

Where Young People Go to Retire? Amenities, Opportunity, and Migration of the Young and College-Educated*

Portland’s “brain gain”… • Human capital is an

important component to economic development

• Portland as magnet for “young and restless,” “creative class” etc. etc.

Source: cnbc.com

• YCEs = Young and college-educated workers (aged 25-39) represent one-sixth of Portland metro workforce

• Although college attainment rates among 25-39 year olds in Portland (37.4%) are still in second tier among large metros – SF Bay Area, Seattle, Denver, Mpls-St Paul are all

in 40-50% range

Portland’s “brain gain”…

…or “brain pain”?

• Portlandia quote taps into standing concerns about the ambitiousness of Portland’s workforce

• But also challenges long-held theories about migration and economic opportunity

Portland… it’s a city where young people

go to retire…

Full reports available at: http://mkn.research.pdx.edu

YCE Migration Patterns • How do migration patterns of YCEs to Portland

compare to other large U.S. metros? – To what extent are Portland’s YCE migration

patterns consistent over the past forty years? • How does Portland’s net exchange of YCE

migrants between different sized origins and destinations compare to other large U.S. metros?

• How significant are college-educated immigrants in Portland’s YCE migration streams?

Data • U.S. decennial Census data

– 1980, 1990, and 2000 • ACS data

– 2005-07 and 2008-10 • Compare Portland to 50 largest U.S.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) • Demographic Effectiveness (DE)

-100% 0 100% • 5 Migration ‘Takeaways’

Destination Portland

1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980

DE of YCE Migrants to Average Employment Growth, 2008-2010

ATL

AUS

BAL

BRM

BOS

BUF

CLT

CHI CIN

CLE

COL

DAL

DEN

DET

HRT

HOU

IND

JAX

KC

LAS

LAX

LOU

MEM

MIA

MKE

MSP NSH

NO

NYC

NOR

OK

ORL

PHL

PHX

PIT

PDX

PRI

RDU

RCH

RIV

SAC

STL

SLC

SAN

SD

SFO SJ

SEA

TPA

DC

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Ann

ual E

mpl

oym

ent

Gro

wth

Migration

2. Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth

Migration by Age and Educational Attainment, 1980 to 2008-2010

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1980 1990 2000 2005-2007 2008-2010

NMR Ratio of Portland to Top 50 MSAs

Bachelor's Degree or Higher Less than Bachelor's Degree

Urban Hierarchy Classifications

Portland YCEs, 2008-2010 Top 50 Metro YCEs, 2008-2010

3. YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy

Portland Empty-Nesters and Retirement Migrants, 2008-2010

Top 50 Metro Empty-Nester and Retirement Migrants, 2008-2010

4. Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too

5. Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

YCEs in the Labor Market • What are the labor market outcomes for

Portland’s YCEs compared to other large metros?

• To what extent are they: – “Retired”? – Unemployed? – Underemployed? – Self-employed?

Labor Market Context

Census 2000

ACS 2005-07

ACS 2008-10

Pdx

US

• Portland’s YCEs are not “retired” from the labor market – they are active at comparable rates to other metros.

Labor Force Participation

83% 84%

85% 87%

86%

89%

87% 87% 89%

90% 90%

92%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

2000 2005-07 2008-10

Low Portland 50 Metro Ave High

Pdx rank: 27th 43rd 27th

Note: 2008-10 rates not directly comparable

to earlier years

• Portland’s YCEs experience high unemployment rates

• Among 5 highest metros in all three periods

• But much lower than workers w/o college

Unemployment Rates

1.1% 1.7%

1.9% 2.0%

3.0%

4.2%

2.6%

3.6%

5.4%

3.2%

4.0%

6.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2000 2005-07 2008-10

Low 50 Metro Ave Portland High

Pdx rank: 5th 5th 5th

Note: 2008-10 rates not directly comparable

to earlier years

• Portland’s YCEs had the highest rate of part-time employment in 2008-10, and 2nd highest in 2000 and 2005-07

Part-Time Employment

7% 8% 8%

10% 11% 11%

14% 15%

18%

14%

17% 18%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

2000 2005-07 2008-10

Low 50 Metro Ave Portland High

Pdx rank: 2nd 2nd 1st

• Portland’s YCEs are somewhat more likely to be employed in occupations that do not require a BA or higher

“Occupational Underemployment”

19% 21% 21%

30% 32%

31%

35% 35% 35%

40%

47% 45%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2000 2005-07 2008-10

Low 50 Metro Ave Portland High

Pdx rank: 6th 10th 8th

• Portland’s YCEs have consistently earned less than the 50 metro average

• Even accounting for cost of living

Income & Earnings

88% 89%

84%

91%

94%

92%

80%

84%

88%

92%

96%

100%

2000 2005-07 2008-10

Portland YCE Earnings: % of 50 Metro Average

All PDX YCEs

PDX YCEs working Full-Time

• Portland’s YCEs consistently exhibit some of the country’s highest self-employment rates.

Self-Employment

4.5% 4.2%

3.7%

6.8% 7.1%

6.2%

7.9% 8.9% 8.9%

9.6% 10.2%

9.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2000 2005-07 2008-10

Low 50 Metro Ave Portland High

Pdx rank: 6th 4th 3rd

Conclusions • Young people don’t come here to retire, but

they don’t come here to get rich either • Lack of outmigration is striking, even in bad

economic times • Strong evidence that young migrants are

committed to Portland and “willing to pay” for it

• But self-selectivity is a concern – potential loss of diversity over time

What to do about it? • Keep investing in human capital

– Especially important for native Oregonians and Portlanders – it’s an equity issue

• Make better use of our “brain gain” – Let businesses know about our talent pool

(and that they’re really not as unambitious as the reputation implies)

– Build on the region’s DIY ethos – foster entrepreneurship in all its forms

Jason R. Jurjevich, Ph.D. Acting Director, Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies (IMS) and

Population Research Center (PRC) Assistant Professor, Nohad A. Toulan School of Urban Studies and Planning *Collaborative work with Greg Schrock, Ph.D.

Where Young People Go to Retire? Amenities, Opportunity, and Migration of the Young and College-Educated*

ACS Reliability of Tract Estimates

Tract Size Category Average Tract

Size Old Stratification CVs (2005-2010)

New Stratification CVs

(2011+)

0-400 291 66% 41%

401-1,000 766 41% 30%

1,001-2,000 1,485 29% 29%

2,001-4,000 2,636 26% 29%

4,001-6,000 4,684 19% 29%

6,000 + 8,337 15% 28%

• 2005-2010 [5 sampling strata] • 2011+ [16 sampling strata] • More equitable results across census tracts

Immigrants as a % of YCE In-Migrants

Ages 25+, BA+ (2010) • 33.6% Native-Born

Portlanders • 29.2% Foreign-Born

Portlanders • U.S. average

(28.4% NB, 27%FB)

• Even when adjusted for COL, Portland YCEs earn less than in comparator metros.

Earnings relative to COL Portland relative to…

Annual Earnings

Gap

Annual Housing

Cost Gap*

Adjusted gap

Seattle-Tacoma ($8,161) $1,692 ($6,469)

Mpls-St Paul ($6,452) $192 ($6,260)

Denver-Boulder ($6,135) ($127) ($6,262)

SF-Oakland ($17,794) $7,061 ($10,733)

Los Angeles-OC ($7,956) $6,374 ($1,582)

San Diego ($7,977) $5,052 ($2,925)

* based on 2010 HUD median rent for 1 BR apt

Slide Number 1Portland’s “brain gain”…Portland’s “brain gain”……or “brain pain”?Slide Number 5YCE Migration PatternsDataSlide Number 8Destination PortlandDE of YCE Migrants to Average Employment Growth, 2008-2010Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14YCEs in the Labor MarketLabor Market ContextLabor Force ParticipationUnemployment RatesPart-Time Employment“Occupational Underemployment”Income & EarningsSelf-EmploymentConclusionsWhat to do about it?Slide Number 25ACS Reliability of Tract EstimatesSlide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Earnings relative to COL

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