Where is our journey taking us?

Author: Prof. M.J. ClarkPresenter: Tim Robinson

2

Synopsis

What does the environment look like Facing the facts What is the impact of Globalisation and Consumerisation Just what issues are we facing

5 years, 10 years and beyond

What does it mean for Society and it’s Education What will it mean for Institutions and our services The Challenges

What will be our response

3

“It is because modern education is so seldom inspired by a great hope that it so seldom achieves great results. The wish to preserve the past rather that the hope of creating the future dominates the minds of those who control the teaching of the young.”Bertrand Russell (1872-1970)  

4

The IT/IS Environment

Moore’s law good for another decade, may be a little more! Too much technology

waiting for an application; chasing replacement cycles which never deliver effective solutions

IT capital costs continue to fall But what about the recurrent charges! Inevitably these costs

will open new questions

What is the impact of IT/IS to the process of education What will be the paradigm of learning in 10 years

A tightening on funding in a difficult economy

5

Moore’s Law the brainchild of Intel cofounder

Moore's Law the observation that the number of transistors on a silicon chip

will double every two years.

Why as customers are we not seeing a lowering of our overall costs? For the same service cost should be reducing year on year! What is it that drives us to chase relentlessly new

technologies/services….

Why does overall IS budget increase annually Inevitably at some point customers will forego

‘computers/systems’ and buy online services.

6

The ‘quick’ history of Computing60yrs

The birth of the computer: architecture (electronics) and algorithm Early mainframes supporting a few scientific users

The birth of the University Computing Centre Emergence of simple MIS functionalities

The emergence of MIS computer centres Distributed Computing arrives

Centralisation v devolution Desktop Computing arrives

Communication and electronic office dominates services Re-centralise for efficiency

Commodity Computing arrives New services funded by invisible financial strategies.

21st century Computing: dramatically different to the 60s, 70s, 80s and early 90s. Computers are accepted as ubiquitous and commoditised.

7

An even quicker history of the Internet

1965 First packet experiment by ARPA – Email internal communication person to person on host

1969 Internet as we know it first developed 1971 email on internet

and by 1974 prime use of the internet 1979 Usenet precursor of all threaded message Boards 1979 MUD multi-user dungeons which at the time seemed trivial

but precursor to so many games and paradigms 1982 Minitel was developed; a sub-feature was chat

became precursor to all the anonymous and open chat systems

1990 development of WWW at CERN 1995 The Wiki

leading to Wikipedia for example Global brands based entirely on the Internet – eBay, Google,

…

See http://www.webopedia.com/quick_ref/timeline.asp

8

The Pace of Change – Steam to the moon

9

The Countdown to the Singularitye.g.14years from the PC to worldwide web

www.kurzweilai.net

10

The Singularity

The rate of technological change will be so great (exponential) that its impact on human life will be irreversibly transformed! Humans have poor appreciation of exponential change!!!!

The human brain although impressive is limited; we have poor bandwidth with which to process new information and use massive parallelism to pattern match surrounding patterns. Our capacity in relation to the expansion of the human knowledge

base is limiting.

The singularity represents the culmination of a merger of our biological thinking (brain) and technology A world that is still human but transcends our biological limitations!

11

The Singularity is NearRay Kurzweil

A glimpse into what awaits us in the near future. His

reasoning rests on the combination of four postulates:

1. That through a law of accelerating returns, technology is progressing toward the singularity at an exponential rate.

2. That the functionality of the human brain is quantifiable in terms of technology that we can build in the near future.

3. That a technological-evolutionary jump known as "the singularity" (smarter-than-human entities) exists as an achievable goal for humanity.

4. That medical advancements will keep his generation (Baby Boomers) alive long enough for the exponential growth of technology to intersect and surpass the processing of the human brain.

12

Fifteen views of evolution: Major paradigm shifts in the history of the

world

As seen by fifteen different lists of key events. There is a clear trend of smooth acceleration through biological evolution and then technological evolution.

To reduce bias, he compiled thirteen multiple independent lists of major events in the history of biology and technology from the following sources: John R. Skoyles, Dorian Sagan, Up From Dragons: The Evolution of Human Intelligence, Ballantine

Books, 1989, exact dates provided by Modis. American Museum of Natural History, exact dates provided by Modis. The data set "important events in the history of life" in the Encyclopædia Britannica Educational Resources in Astronomy and Planetary Science (University of Arizona) (

book reference link is offline but see Internet Archive) Paul D. Boyer, biochemist, winner of 1997 Nobel prize, private communications, exact dates provided

by Modis. J.D. Barrow and J. Silk, "The Structure of the Early Universe", Scientific American, 242.4 (April

1980):118-28 Jean Heidmann, Cosmic Odyssey: Observatoir de Paris, trans. Simon Mitton (Cambridge University

Press, 1989) J. William Schopf, ed., Major Events in the History of Life, symposium, 1991 Philip Tobias, Major Events in the History of Mankind", chap.7 in Schopf, Major Events in the History of

Life' David Nielson, Lecture on Molecular Evolution I" (http://drnelson.utmem.edu/evolution.html) and

"Lecture Notes for Evolution II" (http://drnelson.utmem.edu/evolution2.html_ Göran Burenhult, ed. The First Humans: Humans Origins and History to 10,000 BC,

HarperSanFrancisco, 1993 D. Johanson and B. Edgar, From Lucy to Language, Siemens & Schuster, 1996 R. Coren, The Evolutionary Trajectory: The Growth of Information in the History and Furure of Earth,

World Futures General Evolution Studies, Gordon and Breach,, 1998

13

14

The analysis Ray Kurzweil's analysis concludes:

Technological progress follows a pattern of exponential growth, following what he calls The Law of Accelerating Returns.

Whenever technology approaches a barrier, new technologies will cross it. He predicts paradigm shifts will become increasingly

common, leading to “technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”

For information: Kurzweil believes the Singularity will occur at the date of 2045,

with human intelligence (equivalent to 1026 cps) being matched by machines, in a conservative estimate, by the early 2030’s.

15

What does this mean for us serving the Education community!

The basic elements of teaching and learning are the same as forever: Humans learn from humans; parents, teachers and then the

world

However, the half-life of many acquired skills is getting shorter After learning ‘life-skills’ the key skill required is the ability to

learn and know what to learn

Access to information will not be bounded by technology; perhaps by charge for access In an information society, quality information may not be free!

16

Education: I am not equipped to answer any of these questions!

Is today’s education a millstone based on legacy methods and paradigms taught by those who resist change? A natural human instinct is to maintain the status quo!

Are today's educators equipped to teach with the adaptability needed by tomorrows learners?

Are we awakening the competitive spirit required to succeed in a competitive global economy – have we had it too good for too long?

All baby-boomers had parental expectation that they would do ‘better’ than themselves – is that also true for our children?

Have we defined what education is really about and do we understand how it happens and what society wants from it?

17

What is the new environment

This is the western world today in which we have to educate and prepare the young! The Grey Age: Life expectancy rising, birth rates falling, an

ageing population: a major political issue is who will pick up the cost!

The major product on the global market today is not something you can wear, eat or use — it is money.

Every day, approx $1.3 trillion dollars are gambled on the international currency markets. According to the World Bank, 95% of this involves pure speculation. The entire global financial system is based on banking, borrowing and debt.

We are 'drowning in cheap’ consumer goods with built in obsolescence in a society that exploits the planet’s resources

18

Education: the classical divisions through life

Schooling. This includes primary generally beginning when children are four - seven years of age; secondary often occurs at about twelve years of age.

Vocational training/education. This includes skills training, particularly on-the-job training.

Tertiary education. This includes higher education institutions.

Life-long learning. This is up/re skilling and can be on-the-job, externally provided, on-line etc.

19

Increasingly the cost will target the benefiter

Schooling -generally ‘free’ (Gov funded) for primary and secondary

Education post secondary is moving towards the student paying an increasing component of the cost (may be deferred) or the cost being met by employer.

Increasingly the benefiter, the student, will pay throughout their lifetime, sometimes supplemented by employer

Education remains very expensive; no significant cost-efficiencies demonstrated from technological approaches.

The cost of a good initial education is high; however, it is insignificant in comparison to the costs associated with maintaining a disenfranchised citizen

20

The Consumer Marketwe line in a gizmo world!

21

What will be the impact of New technologiesan example!

By 2020 full-immersion VR will be a vast playground of compelling environments and experiences but not fully convincing By late 20’s it will be difficult to distinguish virtual from real

reality and will engage with all our senses and neurological correlations of emotions!

What will educators do with a virtual school/college/university No wonder many universities are experimenting with second

life islands

22

The impact of new technologieson Higher Education

Staff/students have higher specification computing power at ‘home’ than we can ‘afford’ to cyclically replace

Users have become somewhat self-sufficient – AI interfaces/Google solve most problems

Users have little allegiance to the ‘institutional’ services hotmail, Google, Gmail, PayPal, etc… an army of services used many UK institutions moving towards externally provided services

Users want remotely accessible services to the home/office and the ‘pda’ the desktop concept is just a special case of a remote service

provision IT Consumerisation blurs boundary between work and personal

life We need to re-evaluate what is strategic for and about the services we

provide

23

The digital natives take control

Consumer devices are increasingly tailorable and integrable (or fixed and hence cheap and disposable)

Users will not generally tolerate controlled environments will individualise to meet their personal or ‘community’ needs

Pervasive ubiquitous networks (emerging) will provide social networks, blogs, wikis, groupware,… through which ideas

and work outputs will be shared – we are only at the beginning users moving seamlessly among services ( work-related,

personal or family-related) Personalised tools, resources, peers, locations and

information flows enhancing their quality of work with perceived efficiency and

effectiveness

24

Is computing services the next utility?

The answer has broad implications for the future of

computing utility computing is influencing the development of computer

technology in such areas as the auto-provisioning of computing resources and resource sharing across a computing grid.

Common characteristics of utilities Often regulated Services are scaleable and highly reliable Loss of service may impact (life and death) Complexities at the production end

are hidden from the end-user

Utilities make service providers invisible

25

Globalisation threat or opportunity?

A report published by the Treasury Select Committee, warns that "an inexorable shift in global economic power from West to East is under way", with China, India and Brazil set to become economic "powerhouses". (19 October 2007)

MPs say that contrary to popular belief, the impact of globalisation will be felt by high-skilled, as well as low-skilled, workers. While some companies have outsourced low-skilled jobs to low-wage economies in recent years, parliamentarians stress that highly skilled jobs in the UK are also under threat due to the investment the world's emerging economies are making in research and development and to boosting their own skills bases.

http://wWw.inthenews.co.uk/money/autocodes/countries/india/globalisation-threat-uk-jobs-$1150787.htm

26

The environment for the UK Universitiesas seen from cabinet office

The Government perspective Approx £15 Billion spent annually on HE

central admin services costs exceeds £ 1.5 billion other potential sharable costs around £ 1 billion

Shared services could deliver non-competitive elements applications, infrastructures and services

lower cost, better quality could be delivered

Shared services are very definitely not just about IT

Through shared services institutions would focus on core business research, teaching & learning!

27

Our role in Networks:just another shared service or

aggregation?

When a provider(s) wirelessly covers my campus/residences/staff homes what is my unique selling point?

The emergence of ubiquitous networking meeting 95% of consumer need will question our own roles.

The challenge will be to prevail in a consumer-market and undergo the metamorphism necessary to demonstrate value, New funding paradigms around advertising etc may challenge

the whole service model Are their killer applications or just killer user numbers? Do researchers generally have needs incapable of being met by

a mass market – after all our existence arose to serve the needs of research!

28

Difficult to fight a ‘compelling’ change agenda

(do it to yourself or have it done to you)

The convergence and streamlining of functions for effective and efficient service delivery An expectation that economies of scale will produce savings

Shared Service is so much more than just aggregation, consolidation or even outsourcing

The TERENA mission: ...to promote and participate in the development of a high

quality international information and telecommunications infrastructure for the benefit of research and education.

remains sound but the provider model will change and control will be challenged

29

What does it mean for the NRENs!

As economies are pressured by world factors efficiencies will be sought We are shared services but more will be sought

Education will be challenged to provide increased value These challenges will be to core and ancillary services

new private suppliers enter the market-space

Each country will take different views on the roles of its NREN is further aggregation to be demanded as a public sector supplier.

Edu organisations will be forced to look to their core-business Universities will increasingly outsource non-core activities

Life Long learning will pervade the home, workplace supported by anytime anywhere access

30

Transformation will continue apace

The rate of change through technology is exponential!

However, it is not just the technology but the governance, services, and people that will shape the future of Education we must be fit for the new challenges! we need to be nimble to adopt new opportunities

are we up for exponential change!

31

But a caution!

“Information literacy increasingly should not be considered a given….the information literacy skills of new students are not improving as the post-1993 Internet boomlet enters college….in a sea of user-created content, collaborative work, and instant access to information of varying quality, the skills of critical thinking, research, and evaluation are increasingly required to make sense of the world”

Horizon report, 2007

32

Thanks!!!!

33

Questions

M.J.Clark@manchester.ac.uk

34

Acknowledgements

http://www.timelines.info/history/ages_and_periods/the_modern_world/

http://blaugh.com/2006/10/13/the-whole-internet-truth/