Where Goes New Hampshire?

New Hampshire 2018

Steve NortonExecutive Director NH Center for Public Policy StudiesMarch 11, 2008

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Sponsored by BusinessNH Magazine and Leadership New Hampshire

What is NH?

What Will NH Be in 2018?

The New Hampshire Revolution: NH Income per person grew faster than US in 1970-80’s.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Ratio of Personal Income per Capita - NH to US

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Macro Trends

• Aging– People are getting older, fewer children

• Economic Change– Agriculture -> Manufacturing -> ?

• The World is Flat– Information, Communication, Transportation

• Environmental Change– Climate, Water, Conservation

• Migration• Role of Towns in Shaping New Hampshire

AgingSchools

Housing

Health Care

What Will the Boomers Do?

Balance of GovernmentAnd Private

Economic Development

Quality Of Life

Transportation

Rails

I93

Zoning And Livable Communities

Migration

It’s A System, Not Static

Age Distribution: 1970

Distribution of NH Population by Age in 1970

(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Persons

(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000

Males Females

Age Distribution: 1995

Distribution of NH Population by Age in 1995

(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Persons

(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000

Males Females

Age Distribution: 2020?

Distribution of NH Population by Age in 2020

(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Persons

(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000

Males Females

Health Care Accounts for Much of Job Growth

Source: NH Department of Labor Projections

Distribution of Estimated 113,788 New Jobs by Industry (2004-2014)

Education (All)24%

Retail17%

All Other17%

Health Care42%

Migration Happened (Many from MA!)

Source: www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu

Source: Johnson, Ken. 2007. 'The Changing Faces of New Hampshire. The Carsey Institute. Durham, NH.

Migration Happens?Source: www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu

Source: Johnson, Ken. 2007. 'The Changing Faces of New Hampshire. The Carsey Institute. Durham, NH.

The Changing Face of NH?

Distribution of Population by Race and Ethnicity (2005)

0.70% 0.70%1.10% 2.10% 2.20%

96.40%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

White Black orAfrican

American

AmericanIndian and

AlaskaNative

Asian Some otherrace

Hispanic orLatino (ofany race)

NH PercentUS Percent

High Growth in foreign born in early 2000s. Higher than US

average and similar to Georgia and NC

State

2000-2005 Percentage Change

in Foreign Born Population

2000-2005 Average Annual Percentage

Change

2005 Foreign Born

Population

Georgia 37.8% 6.6% 795,419

New Hampshire 33.8% 6.0% 72,480

North Carolina 30.4% 5.5% 560,753

Massachusetts 15.3% 2.9% 891,184

Connecticut 14.4% 2.7% 423,254

Rhode Island 9.4% 1.8% 130,517

Maine 5.5% 1.1% 38,727

Montana 2.1% 0.4% 16,734

Vermont -6.0% -1.2% 21,843

United States 14.8% 2.8% 35,622,125

Source: Ross Gittell, NH 2018 Presentation

Why NH? Lower Housing Prices?

Median Home Value (1960 and 2007)

$13,800

$313,138

$236,597

$10,700

$207,720

$11,900

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

1960 2007

NHMASSUS

Voting PatternsChange

Major Policy Levers Which Will Affect Issue of Aging

• Transportation• Housing Prices• ‘Retaining Youth’ Initiatives (55 Initiative, the

Arts)• Information Highway• Conservation, Quality of Life, Water and Sewer• Business Development• State and Community Investment• Taking Advantage of Regional Opportunities

What is NH?

The Tech Corridor?

The Lakes RegionThe North Country

The Seacoast

The Capital RegionThe Monadnock Region

Mt Washington Valley

Geographic Variation: What Do Regions Have in Common?

Source: NH Office of State Planning Estimates

Population C hange 2000 to 2005

-27 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

200 - 300

300 - 1,000

1,000 - 3 ,000

And the Agent for Change is …

? Recession ?

NH 2018

• Many policy levers affecting the future. • Prediction for 2018? Not that much different

than now.• Recession makes investment and change

difficult.• State and local policy decisions regarding

transportation, housing and energy likely to fundamentally shape 2018 and BEYOND.

• What will the boomers do?

All of our reportsare available on the

web:

www.nhpolicy.orgwww.nhpolicy.org

New Hampshire Center New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studiesfor Public Policy Studies

Board of Directors

Donna Sytek, Chair

John B. Andrews

John D. Crosier

Shelia T. Francoeur

Chuck Morse

Todd Selig

Stuart Smith

James Tibbetts

Brian Walsh

Kimon S. Zachos

Martin Gross

Staff

Steve Norton

Dennis Delay

Ryan Tappin

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”