What’s on Your Horizon?Process, Technologies, and Impact of the 2007 Horizon Report

Spring 2007 CNI Task Force Meeting | Phoenix, AZ

Alan Levine, NMCBryan Alexander, NITLECyprien Lomas, UBC

Perils of Predicting the Future

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R&D in Educational Technology

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Visionary Perspective

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Englebart’s Organizational Layers

"A Strategy for Organizational Fitness," 1991"Toward High-Performance Organizations", 1992

Looking at the Horizon

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Not About Being “Right”

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Time to Adoption != Time To Viable

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Horizon Project Advisory Board

the process

research dialog

trends

• the environment of higher education is changing rapidly

• increasing globalization is changing the way we work, collaborate, and communicate

• information literacy increasingly should not be considered a given

• academic review and faculty rewards are increasingly out of sync with new forms of scholarship

• the notions of collective intelligence and mass amateurization are pushing the boundaries of scholarship

• students’ views of what is and what is not technology are increasingly different from those of faculty

challenges

• how to assess new forms of work

• how to navigate changes in scholarship, research, creative expression, and learning

• intellectual property and copyright continue to affect how scholarly work is done

• skills gap between understanding how to use tools for media creation and how to create meaningful content

• renewed emphasis on collaborative learning pushes the educational community to develop new forms of interaction and assessment

• growing expectation for higher education to deliver services, content and media to mobile and personal devices

Funnel Process

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Sandbox: Less Than One Year Horizon

Audience response Lecture capture

Wikis Collaboration Tools

Online Communication Tools

Shibboleth Multimedia Production Tools

PODCASTING Presentation technology

Web 2.0 & Social SoftwarePortable Apps

Flash Video Format Online Project Management Tools

DIGITAL "AIR" Classroom communication systems

Content Mapping ToolsHTML Templates & Portfolios

Learning Management Systems

Social Networking ToolsImage-rich communications

Easily Accessible Projection SystemsMobile Computers

Mobile/ Geographic GamesRSS and Syndication Tools

Audio Capture/Distribution ToolsGroup Collaboration Software Portal Technologies

Pervasive Campus Wireless Personal Authoring Systems

E-Portfolios More Training & Release Time Mashups

Digital Space Textbooks 2.0

Data Visualization Tools Automated Lecture Capture

Show Me the Content Comparative Image

displays Mechanical Turk Moore's Law of

Education Grid Computing

Relationship Visualization Targeted Marketing Universal Design for Learning

Funnel Process

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Sandbox: Two to Three Year Horizon

Teleconferencing, video conferencing, video chatTablet PCs

Social networkingMiniaturization Use of public datasets Personal broadcasting

Better interface designPortable Devices Personalized computing

GamingVideo via broadband

Audio Books

Mainstream gaming platforms Academic Publishing 2.0

Going to the Source

Cognitive toolsTrusted Reference Sources

IPTVGoogle AdWords

Specialized media toolsAudience Created Content

Non-Linear Narrative

YouTube for College Web-based Productivity Apps Digital Asset Management Social Network Service

Precise Physical Tracking / Remote instrumentation Video Message Boards

Peer-to-peer filesharing Video & audio sharing

Gaming to learn High Definition Video Personal Broadcasting Social bookmarking

Video Blogs multiplayer environments Skype, IM, synchronized communication tools

Recommendation Systems Specialized Media Tools

Funnel Process

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Sandbox: Four to Five Year Horizon

Ubiquitous computing and telephony Information searching technologies

Personal Learning Environments

Social Community sites Remote Labs

Synthetic/Virtual Worlds Semantic Web Tagging/folksonomy Geo-aware computing Google Books Text comprehension and abstracting system Geo-aware social

applications Wi-Max for cell phones

eBooks Mobile devices on steroids 3d shared immersion experiences

VR simulations User preference engines

Ubiquitous broadband Bio security systems

Media Rich Social Network Tools Digital Notetaking Social Bookmarking

Wearable computing

Videogames as learning platforms 2-D and 3-D visualization tools Pervasive Broadband and Wireless Implanted technologies Internet-wide User-centric Identity Systems Real-Time Language

Translation Robust Transcribing and Captioning tools Intelligent Tutoring

Virtual Meeting Software Narrative Presentation Technologies Collaborative Writing / Editing Next generation search tools Nokia Lifeblog Ad Hoc Networks

Context and location aware technologies Browser-based applications

Web 2.0 technologies Smartboard technologies 3G (and beyond) Mobile phones

Person-Computer Interfacing Video & audio sharing

The Short List

Less Than One Year Online Collaboration: Easy, Accessible, and Virtually Free User Content: It’s All about the Audience The Reason They Log On Can You Hear Me Now? The Resurgence of Audio

Two to Three Years Your Phone: The Gateway to Your Digital Life The New Video is Smaller than You Think Virtual Worlds, Real Opportunity Mapping Goes Mainstream: It’s Not What You Know, It’s Where You Know

Four to Five Years The New Scholarship and Emerging Forms of Publication Massively Multiplayer Educational Gaming Personal Learning Environments Internet-Wide User-Centric Identity Systems

topics

From classifying and tagging to creating and uploading, today’s “audience” is very much in control of the content we find online. This active audience is finding new ways to contribute, communicate, and collaborate, using a variety of small and easy tools that put the power to develop and catalog the Internet into the hands of the people. The largest and fastest growing websites on the Internet are all making use of this approach, which is redefining how we think about the web and how it might be applied to learning.

user-created content

ADOPTION HORIZON NEAR HORIZON (ONE YEAR OR LESS)

socialnetworking

The expectation that a website will remember the user is well established. Social networking takes this several steps further; the website knows who the user’s friends are, and may also know people that the user would like to meet or things the user would like to do. Even beyond that, social networking sites facilitate introduction and communication by providing a space for people to connect around a topic of common interest. These sites are fundamentally about community —communities of practice as well as social communities.

ADOPTION HORIZON NEAR HORIZON (ONE YEAR OR LESS)

The convergence of ubiquitous broadband, portable devices, and tiny computers has changed our concept of what a phone is meant to be. A pocket-sized connection to the digital world, the mobile phone keeps us in touch with our families, friends, and colleagues by more than just voice. Our phones are address books, file storage devices, cameras, video recorders, way-finders, and hand-held portals to the Internet—and they don’t stop there. The ubiquity of mobile phones, combined with their many cap-abilities, makes them an ideal platform for educational content and activities. We are only just beginning to take advantage of the possibilities they will offer.

mobile phones

ADOPTION HORIZON MID HORIZON (TWO TO THREE YEARS)

In the last year, interest in virtual worlds has grown considerably, fueled in no small part by the tremendous press coverage of examples like Second Life. Campuses and businesses have established locations in these worlds in much the same way they were creating websites a dozen years ago. In the same way that the number and sophistication of websites grew very quickly as more people began to browse, virtual locations will become more common and more mature as the trend continues. Virtual worlds offer flexible spaces for learning and exploration—educational use of these spaces is already underway and growing.

virtual worlds

ADOPTION HORIZON MID HORIZON (TWO TO THREE YEARS)

ADOPTION HORIZON FAR HORIZON (FOUR TO FIVE YEARS)

The time-honored activities of academic research and scholarly activity have benefited from the explosion of access to research materials and the ability to collaborate at a distance. At the same time, the processes of research, review, publication, and tenure are challenged by the same trends. The proliferation of audience-generated content combined with open-access content models is changing the way we think about scholarship and publication—and the way these activities are conducted.

new scholarship & emerging forms of publication

The term “serious games” has been coined to describe games that have an educational purpose and non-entertainment goals. Educators are taking a hard look at one type of serious game, massively multiplayer educational games, and finding strong po-tential for teaching and learning. These games are still time-consuming and often expensive to produce, but practical examples can easily be found. Interest is high and developments in the open-source arena are bringing them closer to mainstream adoption year by year.

massively multiplayer educational gaming

ADOPTION HORIZON FAR HORIZON (FOUR TO FIVE YEARS)

Differing Horizons- Edgy Enough?

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Blogosphere Reaction

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Heard Around the Blogs

The Perils of Stargazing (Catherine Howell) Technorati links

I was a bit nonplussed by its choice of technologies… that the technologies and modes identified in this years’ list have already achieved significant impact. There is one self-evident conclusion to draw from this. This year’s Horizon Report is not futurology: it is history.

Heard Around the Blogs

• Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow (Stephen Downes)• Technorati links

Yes it's another 'future trends' article, but I like what seems to be (when compared to all the gee-whiz homages to 2L and mobile web we've been seeing) an almost contrarian set of "opportunity areas" - and a list that is surprisingly in accord with my own thinking… It's that it's a list that stridently follows the waves, even when there's nothing really there.

Heard Around the Blogs

• On the Perils of Stargazing (Scott Leslie)• Technorati links

What was fascinating (and maybe a bit frustrating, but in a good way) about the process was how we went from these sprawling lists down to a list of 6 that actually seem to bear some resemblance to conceivable futures, not ‘wished for’ futures, not ‘if only everyone would listen to me’ futures, but ones that bear some resemblance to where these slow moving beasts called post-secondary institutions will get to.

Campus Perspectives

NERCOMP presentation

EDUCAUSE / ELI

Penn State TLT Podcast

Bringing to Your Campus

Aggregating Campus Findings?

Research Agenda

http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Research_Agenda

K-12 Horizon Projecthorizonproject.wikispaces.com

group discussion

www.nmc.org/horizon

www.educause.edu/eli

© 2007 The New Media Consortium. This work is the intellectual property of the author(s). Permission is granted for this material to be shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears on the reproduced materials and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission from the author.