what’s ahead for maine in next 20 years? john davulis, chief economist central maine power company...
TRANSCRIPT
What’s Ahead for Maine in Next 20 Years?
John Davulis, Chief EconomistCentral Maine Power Company
Long Range Planning SeminarMaine Dept. of Transportation
August 8, 2005
2
Long-range planning has to be different
• Short-term forecasts are dominated by events – oil prices
– base closings
– housing bubble
• In the long run, the structure of the system will change– aging population
– climate change
– technological advances
3
Credibility is important
• There is another way you can tell you’re a Republican. You have faith in free enterprise, faith in the resourcefulness of the American people, and faith in the U.S. economy. To those critics who are so pessimistic about our economy, I say “Don’t be economic girlie men!”
– Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican Natl. Convention, August 31, 2004
4
When, where & how big?
• Unfortunately economic models aren’t very good at telling us about the distant future
• As Patrick Henry aptly observed in 1775: “I know of no way of judging
the future but by the past.”
• Today’s economic models are offer – a reasonable extrapolation of
the past that is tempered by likely structural changes in the local and the national economy
– nothing is predetermined
5
Overview of Presentation
• Global Insight’s economic forecast for Maine & its counties– no BRAC impacts are
incorporated
– slow employment growth• continuing loss of
manufacturing jobs
– slower population growth
– aging population
6
Growth in Total Nonfarm Employment (000s), June 2004 to 2005
June Percent June Job Percent2004 of US 2005p Growth of US Rank
California......... 14,479.0 11.04% 14,752.5 273.5 14.07% 1Florida........... 7,503.2 5.72% 7,731.3 228.1 11.73% 2Texas.............. 9,474.9 7.23% 9,590.4 115.5 5.94% 3Arizona............ 2,365.6 1.80% 2,463.2 97.6 5.02% 4New York........... 8,450.5 6.45% 8,525.1 74.6 3.84% 5
Massachusetts...... 3,182.0 2.43% 3,205.8 23.8 1.22% 25Connecticut........ 1,648.6 1.26% 1,670.8 22.2 1.14% 27New Hampshire...... 626.1 0.48% 637.9 11.8 0.61% 37Rhode Island....... 488.4 0.37% 495.0 6.6 0.34% 44
Vermont............ 302.7 0.23% 308.5 5.8 0.30% 47North Dakota....... 337.5 0.26% 342.6 5.1 0.26% 48Maine.............. 614.0 0.47% 618.4 4.4 0.23% 49South Carolina..... 1,827.7 1.39% 1,814.0 -13.7 -0.70% 50Michigan........... 4,387.6 3.35% 4,373.9 -13.7 -0.70% 51
Total U.S………… 131,110.3 100.00% 133,054.5 1,944.2 100.00%
7
Economic/Demographic Outlook for Maine, 2005-2025
0.6%0.7%
-0.8%
0.2%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Total Employment Nonmfg. Empl. Manuf. Empl. Population
1990-2005 2005-2025
8
Annual % Growth in Total Employment, 2005-2025
0.6%
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
Piscataquis
Sagadahoc
Oxford
Franklin
Kennebec
Aroostook
Washington
Penobscot
Waldo
Androscoggin
Maine
York
Knox
Somerset
Cumberland
Hancock
Lincoln
9
Percent of Employment in High Tech Industries, 2004
Mass.10.7%
U.S.7.4%
Maine3.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
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10
Manufacturing Employment (thous.)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
11
Annual % Growth in Manufacturing Employment, 2005-2025
-0.8%
-2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
Franklin
Kennebec
Aroostook
Penobscot
Piscataquis
Sagadahoc
Oxford
Washington
Androscoggin
Knox
Waldo
Maine
Cumberland
York
Hancock
Somerset
Lincoln
12
Population by Age (% of Total)
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Aged 65 and Older
Aged 0 to 24
13
Annual % Growth in Population, 2005-2025
0.2%
-0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6%
Piscataquis
Kennebec
Sagadahoc
Franklin
Penobscot
Oxford
Aroostook
Washington
Androscoggin
Maine
York
Knox
Cumberland
Waldo
Somerset
Hancock
Lincoln
14
Annual % Growth in Nonmanufacturing Employment, 2005-2025
0.7%
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
Piscataquis
Kennebec
Franklin
Oxford
Aroostook
Penobscot
Washington
Sagadahoc
Waldo
Maine
York
Androscoggin
Knox
Cumberland
Somerset
Hancock
Lincoln
15
Two Possible Futures
The Blonde in the Thunderbird -- we can try to revel in our past “glory”
The Edukators -- we can rearrange the furniture
16
Bruce Mau: Massive Change
17
My Grandfather’s Axe
• This is my grandfather’s axe. My father changed the blade, and I have changed the handle.
Old “Polish” Saying
The Economist
June 23, 2005
18
Is This My Grandfather’s Maine?
• What original or early material is essential to the integrity and significance of Maine -- two decades ahead?
• What design elements do we want to safeguard and maintain?