what’s brewing seminar superior top-line growth · rtd coffee & tea water* beer core...
TRANSCRIPT
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Amsterdam | November 7, 2019 | Heineken N.V.
What’s Brewing Seminar
Superior top-linegrowthJan Derck van Karnebeek
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DisclaimerThis presentation contains forward-looking statements with regard to the financial position and results of HEINEKEN’s activities. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.
Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond HEINEKEN’s ability to control or estimate precisely, such as future market and economic conditions, the behaviour of other market participants, changes in consumer preferences, the ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses and achieve anticipated synergies, costs of raw materials, interest rate and foreign exchange fluctuations, change in tax rates, changes in law, changes in pension costs, the actions of government regulators and weather conditions. These and other risk factors are detailed in HEINEKEN’s publicly filed annual reports.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. HEINEKEN does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of these materials.
Market share estimates contained in this presentation are based on outside sources such as specialisedresearch institutes in combination with management estimates.
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2 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
Jan Derck
Van KarnebeekChief Commercial Officer
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A royal HEINEKEN celebration
3 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
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Agenda
What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
• Superior top-line growth
• Growth strategy in focus
• Conclusion
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Agenda
What’s Brewing Seminar 20195 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
Agenda
Superior top-line growthWe have the right footprint, strategy and
capabilities to keep growing.
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We strive to deliver revenue growth in the top quartile of the staples universe
Strong track record of superior top-line growth
Consumer Staples: Brewers (ABI, CARLB, STZ & TAP); Spirits (DGE, CPR, RCO & RI); Soft drinks (CCH, CCEP & BVIC); Home & personal care (OR, RB, PG, HEN, CL, COTY & KMB); Food (NESN, BN & ULVR); Tobacco (BATS, IMB & SWMA). Note: Organic revenue growth as reported by corporates in each year
4.8 5.0
6.1
2.4
4.4 4.2
2.5
4.2
5.5
1.7
3.9
4.9
3.3
2.7 3.0
2.6
2.1 2.4
4.1
1.2
3.4
2016 2017 2018
HEINEKEN Other brewers Spirits Soft Drinks Food Household Tobacco
Revenue organic growth vs previous years (%)
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Our increased exposure to developing markets supports organic top-line growth
Our revenue growth has accelerated
Source: Internal data
Net revenue Transformational and material bolt-on deals
2008 2010 2012
2017 2019
2008 2013 2018
+0.9%+4.5%
Developed markets
Developing markets
€14.3m
€19.2m
€22.5m
Average organic growth
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2018 Global beervolumes
Developing -mainstream &
economy
Developing -premium
Developed -premium
Developed -mainstream &
economy
2023 Global beervolumes
Developing markets and the premium segment are expected to outgrow the average
HEINEKEN is well placed to capture growth
Source : Global Data; Developed/developing countries segmentation based on World Bank definition of high-income economies for developed countries* Based on 2018 results, with premium defined as products sold at a price index > 115 relative to mainstream.
Major consumer
trends
Global Beer Market outlook
Developing markets+ c.1% CAGR
Developed marketsc. 0% CAGR
Premium+ c.2%-3% CAGR
Total+ c.1% CAGR HEINEKEN
of beer volumes from developing
markets*
2/3
of beer revenue from premium*
>40%
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Agenda
What’s Brewing Seminar 20199 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
Growth strategy in focusWe pursue five sources of growth and
leverage our core capability to replicate
success at scale and speed.
Superior top-line growth
Agenda
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Enteringnew markets
Footprint skewed
to growth
Premiumisation Adjacentbeverage
categories
Adjacent businessmodels
HEINEKEN’s growth model, simplified
Share Re-applyDo Learn
10 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
Mastering global scale and local relevance
KEY CONSUMER TRENDS: DIGITAL LIVES, HEALTH & WELLNESS, BLURRING BOUNDARIES
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Enteringnew markets
Footprint skewed
to growth
Premiumisation Adjacentbeverage
categories
Adjacent businessmodels
11 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
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Balanced footprint in the right geographies, weighted to growth markets
We are best positioned to capture future growth
* Operating companiesSource: HEINEKEN, Global Data
Operating Companies
Joint Ventures/ Associates
Licences
Export
HEINEKEN footprint set to outpace the market
average by >100 bps
0.9%
2.1%
Beer Market HEINEKEN footprint*@ stable share
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Enteringnew markets
Footprint skewed
to growth
Premiumisation Adjacentbeverage
categories
Adjacent businessmodels
13 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Expanding our footprint to gain more exposure to organic growth opportunities
We are effectively accessing new profit pools
Source: Internal data
Examples of new profit pools and partnerships A proven model for new market entry...
Colombia2019
Equador2019
Jamaica2015
Ivory Coast2016
South Africa2016
Mozambique2017
Ethiopia2014
Myanmar2015 Philippines2016
China2019Kilinto I
greenfield
Kilinto II
Kilinto III
Market share <10%
Market share >30%
Margin <0%
MarginBreakeven
Margin> Group average
... which can be replicated
Ethiopia
Operating companies
Joint ventures and associates
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Enteringnew markets
Footprint skewed
to growth
Premiumisation Adjacentbeverage
categories
Adjacent businessmodels
15 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2017 2021 2030
Pop
ula
tio
n (
bn
)
Premium beer continues to grow...
Source: Global Data
Segmentation trends
Premium volumes as % of total beer market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Brazil
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
South Africa
United Kingdom
Economic headwinds
Global urbanisation set to continue
Global growing middle class, led by India and China
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2005 2010 2015 2020F 2050F
Pop
ula
tio
n (
bn
)
Source : World Bank
Source: World Bank
… also in recessions
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Premium grows everywhere, and fastest in developing markets
Premium upside in our major growth markets
Source : Global Data definition of premium; Developed/developing countries segmentationbased on World Bank definition of high-income economies for developed countries
Developed Developing
c.35%
Premium volumes as % of total beer market
Aggregation of our Top 20 markets
c.16%
Mexico UK
Examples of our major market premium opportunities
South Africa China
+2.4% +2.8%
CAGR 2018-2023
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The most global beer brand flanked by a strong portfolio of international and domestic brands
Top premium beer portfolio, led by Heineken®
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One of the few €5bn revenue consumer brands currently growing at 7%
Heineken® has headroom for further growth
Source: Internal data
BrazilBuilding premium on strong brand credentials
ChinaUnlocking brand potential through CRB
Sub-Saharan AfricaLeveraging strong appeal to global platforms
Heineken® before CRB points of sale
c. 0.04m
CAGR +8%
CAGR +15%Volume Points of saleVolume
c. 5m
CAGR +27%
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At the same time, in the same markets, with different brands
Unrivalled skill at being both local and global
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Flex the brand to be locally relevant whilst staying true to its core
#IAMstel Tools video
21
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Versatile international portfolio to successfully compete in a wide range of occasions
Replicating success into the right markets
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Once again through a combination of global and local approaches
Scaling craft in complementary ways
Scaling local authenticityMaking taste travelLagunitas available in 34 markets and locally produced in 3 markets
Extending scale brands
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Enteringnew markets
Footprint skewed
to growth
Premiumisation Adjacentbeverage
categories
Adjacent businessmodels
24 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
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Leveraging trends: Health & wellness and blurring categories
Opportunities to source growth, beyond core beer
*Water: enhanced water, packaged water, flavoured water
>HSDgrowth
LSD - MSDgrowth
<Beergrowth
Radler/Mixed Beer
CiderSpirits
Beer 0.0
Malt
Carbonated Soft Drinks
Energy Drinks
Iced/RTD
Coffee & Tea
Water*
Beer
Core categories
Wine
Proximity to beerAlcoholic beverages Non-alcoholic beverage
Juices/Nectars
Sources of volume
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Established cider markets show +9% penetration on top of beer
Cider leverages the same assets for more penetration
Production assets Commercial assets
Brewery with capabilities for cider and beer production in 19 countries
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Continued growth at a healthy price premium compared to CSD sources of volume
Radler: The benefit of making the first move
SOURCE: Global Data; Internal DataCAGR for 2013-2018** Excluding JV and Associate volumes SOURCE: Global Data
Market shares in beer mixes
Beer Mixes
Global CAGR*
+5.1%HEINEKEN
CAGR*
+8.3%
Global beer mixes volume
13mhlHEINEKEN
market share
>25%
in Austria
c.50%in Poland
c.25%
First mover competitive advantage
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Drinks landscape is changing rapidly towards healthier and more natural non-alcohol beverages
The non-alcoholic beer opportunity is now and big
Non-alcoholic beer sources from different categories
Non-alcoholic beer takes us into new occasions and consumers adding up to 8% incremental penetration
Lunch
Drive
Sport
Office
Our non-alcoholic beer is truly zero alcohol, great taste, lower calories and all natural
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66 non-alcoholic line extentions available across over 55 markets
Leading the way on non-alcoholic beer
Replicating success with the right brands across the right markets
Heineken 0.0 availablein 52 markets in less than 3 years
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Effective rollout of a powerful enabler – ZeroZone
Portfolio approach to create a new category
ZeroZone rolled out to 21 markets in only 12 months
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Visibility is key to create and change consumer habits. Powerful enabler – The Blade
Accelerating the opportunity in the on-trade
Source – HUK SPB Proprietary Data, 2018/2019
When IndividuallyStocked
4 serves +350% Sales Uplift
When DualStocked
14 serves
RIGHT
SKU
The Blade is available in 25 markets
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First flagship 0.0 brand at global scale now available in >50 markets serving new LONO occassions
“Now you can” video
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Enteringnew markets
Footprint skewed
to growth
Premiumisation Adjacentbeverage
categories
Adjacent businessmodels
33 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
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+15.3%net revenue
5Y CAGR from 2014-2019
>€300mof net revenue*
>2.0mhlBeer volumes*
Innovations delivering on convenience, quality and affordability
Draught Systems: Sizeable, profitable and growing
* Including David system, Draughtkeg, Beertender, Blade and Sub for 2018
On-trade draughtPlug&Play Draught Solutions to bring premium
draught experience to every outlet
Draught@HomeBringing the Magic
of On-Trade in Home
DAVID® BLADE ® Draught Keg BeerTender ® The SUB ®
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We are jumping onto a new growth curve, today
Become the Best Connected BrewerC
om
pet
itiv
e
ad
van
tag
eP
rop
osi
tio
n
Produce a great product
Unique production process at scale
Build omni-present brands
Be in every point of sale
Scale in mental presence
Scale in physical presence
Age of
Connections
Be relevant to consumers
Create value for customers
Scale in connections = data
Scale in learning
Age of
ProductionAge of
Marketing & Sales
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…also in a digital age.
Consumer & customer journeys always at the core...
Be relevant to consumers with right personalized message
at right moment
Consumer journeys
Increase customer commitment by growing their businesses
Customer journeysMoment of Truth
Co
nsu
me
r Cu
stom
er
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… by rapidly scaling a complementary capabilities, transactional platforms and new businesses
Winning at the moment of truth...
Consumer journeys Customer journeys
Individualized Data-Driven Marketing (“IDDM”)
Co
nsu
me
r Cu
stom
er
Data Driven Sales (“DDS”)
Business to Business
Capability programmes
Transactional platforms
Adjacent business models
Co
nsu
me
r Cu
stom
er
Business to Consumer (eg Beerwulf)
Six, Drinkies, Star Pubs & Bars are scalable through EPOS
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Digital enables direct personalised relationships with customers and consumers
Our digital platforms are being deployed faster & wider
Replicating success in the right marketsTransactional platforms
B2C
B2B
Capability programs
Adjacent business models
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Efficient, effective personalized consumer messaging with measurable results
IDDM video
39 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
FlexibleCopy
Objects
SKU
Functionality
Endframe
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Agenda
What’s Brewing Seminar 2019What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
ConclusionHEINEKEN is well placed to continue delivering
superior top-line growth today, tomorrow
and the day after tomorrow.
Agenda
40
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Enteringnew markets
Footprint skewed
to growth
Premiumisation Adjacentbeverage
categories
Adjacent businessmodels
HEINEKEN’s growth model, simplified
Share Re-applyDo Learn
41 What’s Brewing Seminar 2019
Mastering global scale and local relevance
KEY CONSUMER TRENDS: DIGITAL LIVES, HEALTH & WELLNESS, BLURRING BOUNDARIES
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We Are HEINEKEN.