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Slide 2 What role do international organizations play in promoting democracy? READING ASSIGNMENT: Pevehouse, Jon C. 2002. Democracy from the Outside- In? International Organizations and Democratization. International Organization 56:3:515-549. 1 Slide 3 Plan Democratic peace What causes democracy? Economic explanation Effect of Regional Organizations Other stories 2 Slide 4 The effect of IOs on democracy. Obviously intrinsically important for a class on IOs And its also part of a larger theme 3 Slide 5 The Democratic Peace Democracy International OrganizationsInternational Trade Peace War Reading from this class 4 Slide 6 What causes democracy? Analytical tool time 5 Slide 7 Today is really about what causes democracy One of the strongest correlates of democracy: PER CAPITA INCOME (economic development) Why? Puzzle time! Explain the correlation between development (per cap income) and democracy. 6 Slide 8 HINTS Development does NOT cause democracy to emerge. Democracy does NOT cause development. The correlation is NOT spurious. (There is a causal connection.) 7 Slide 9 One of the strongest correlates of democracy: PER CAPITA INCOME (economic development) Why? Democracy causes development? Mixed evidence (seems to change every decade) Spurious? Maybe yet there does seem to be a causal connection Development causes democracy to EMERGE? Evidence is weak Development causes democracy to SURVIVE! One of the strongest findings in comparative politics 8 Slide 10 Think DYNAMICALLY Dont just look at correlations Consider Onset Continuation In this article we consider onset/emergence In other work, Pevehouse addresses continuation/survival 9 Slide 11 Basic Stata commands regress y x regress y x if ylag==0 Pevehouse, Jon C. 2002. Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization. International Organization 56:3:515-549.Pevehouse, Jon C. 2002. Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization. International Organization 56:3:515-549. regress y x if ylag==1 Pevehouse, Jon C. 2002. With a Little Help from My Friends? Regional Organizations and the Consolidation of Democracy. American Journal of Political Science 46 (3): 611-626.Pevehouse, Jon C. 2002. With a Little Help from My Friends? Regional Organizations and the Consolidation of Democracy. American Journal of Political Science 46 (3): 611-626. 10 Slide 12 How can regional organizations cause transitions to democracy? Summary I.Diplomatic & economic pressure II.Acquiescence of anti-democracy elites 1.hands-tying 2.socialization (norms) 11 Slide 13 (I) How do IO's provide diplomatic & economic pressure? 1.highly visible 2.multi-lateral legitimacy (not unilateralism) 12 Slide 14 Example: The OAS & Guatemala Auto-golpe of Jorge Serrano in Guatemala (1993) dissolved legislature, closed courts, ruled by decree OAS protested & proposed sanctions 5 days later, military ousted Serrano, installing civilian rule 13 Slide 15 Honduras and Zelaya (2009)? 14 Slide 16 (II) How do IOs get elites to acquiesce? Hands-tying The problem to solve: Business elites - fear expropriation under a populist leader How regional organizations solve the problem: Economic IO's may make credible the commitment to preserve property rights Socialization The problem to solve: Military elites - fear subjugation & reprisals How regional organizations solve the problem: Joint-training exercises bring officers of all countries together Re-orient military officers away from politics (re-socialize) 15 Populist leader Temptation to expropriate Regional organizations! Slide 17 Why the focus on Regional IO's (not global)? Small numbers & higher levels of interaction than global organizations Causal processes are more likely in regional organizations Socialization Hands-tying Monitoring Enforcement 16 Slide 18 The measure (independent variable) democratic density of a country's most democratic organization IOScore_it-1: the score of the most- democratic IO of which state i is a member in the year t-1. The democraticness of the IO is measured as the average democracy-score of all members (except state i). 17 Slide 19 Evidence 18 Slide 20 19 Slide 21 A simple guide to How to read basic regression results 1.What is the analysis explaining? Dependent variable, usually in the title of the table 2.What is the unit of analysis? How many observations of what? (In IO studies, often country-years) 3.What are the independent variables of interest? Main independent variable(s), Control variables 4.What is the effect of each independent (explanatory) variable? Just ask: Is the coefficient positive/negative? 5.Are the effects statistically significant? a.Star-gazing *, **, *** b.Is the standard error 1.96? d.OR: is the p-value TAKE HOME 1: How to read basic regression results (not on the exam ) 1.What is it explaining (dependent variable, usually in the title of the table)? 2.What is the unit of analysis (how many observations of what)? 3.What are the independent variables? 4.What is the effect of each independent (explanatory) variable? (Is the coefficient positive/negative?) 5.Are the effects statistically significant? a.Is the standard error 1.96? c.OR: is the p-value