What is the social impact of Marijuana use?

Prashant FoneskaAna Kostioukova

Dominic Lo

Arguments for Legalization Largest cash crop in

California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion.

A 10% pot tax would yield $1.4 billion in California alone.

Thousands of new jobs in agriculture, packaging, marketing and advertising.

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$68 billion per year on corrections, 1/3 nonviolent drug crimes.

$150 billion on policing and courts, and 47.5% of all drug arrests are marijuana-related.

Resources spent on violent crime.

Arguments for Legalization

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Does a link between marijuana use and crime/unemployment exist?

What is marijuana’s impact versus alcohol and other illicit drugs?

Factors we considered:

population density Median income Education Median age Population age 18 -24 Children in low income

families Marijuana use Alcohol use Other Illicit drug use

Sources of DataBackground:

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1889021,00.html (Time Magazine, CNN News)

http://www.oas.samhsa.gov/ (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health)

http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/02/23/BAO416354C.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1 (San Francisco Chronicle)

Independent Variables: http://www.csac.countries.org/ (California State Association of

Counties) http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=1008 (California

Employment Development Department) http://publications.childrennow.org/ (Children Now)

http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/usac/usacomp.pl(US Census) http://ca.rand.org/stats/ (Rand California Statistics)

15 California Regions Included in the Analysis

Descriptive StatisticsPopulati

on%

Unemp.Pop./sq

miMed. Inc

% HS Grad

Med. Age % 18-24

0-17 Low Mj. Use Alc. Use Illicit Use

Mean 656025.2069

0.062758621

498.5517241

53158.7069

78.73965517

36.11551724

9.143103448

0.444482759

0.082775862

0.524944828

0.041625862

Std. Error 194799.6796

0.002980813

169.8759577

2236.353696

1.053364212

0.608041503

0.325114453

0.015614403

0.002683146

0.005951243

0.000512821

Median 180979 0.057 98.5 50525.5

80.9 35.4 9.2 0.43 0.0823 0.5323 0.0421

Mode #N/A 0.08 2 48489 82.3 36.4 10.3 0.43 0.1143 0.5323 0.046

Std. Dev. 1483550.161

0.022701194

1293.73675

17031.56233

8.022182834

4.630706123

2.475997908

0.118915751

0.020434227

0.045323319

0.003905532

S. Variance

2.20092E+12

0.000515344

1673754.778

290074115.5

64.35541742

21.4434392

6.130565638

0.014140956

0.000417558

0.002054203

1.52532E-05

Kurtosis 32.93717297

3.581056355

29.59782899

1.344590518

-0.51438

2955

-1.0314828

06

2.073173024

-0.557338

498

-1.0606293

47

0.036769299

-0.283866

649

Skewness 5.270688787

1.465061916

5.053458472

1.010867219

-0.62281

6024

0.375424346

0.776584806

-0.030547

283

0.488204307

-0.75261005

6

-0.641289

2

Range 10362628

0.12 8712 81799 32.2 15.6 13.5 0.49 0.0619 0.1717 0.0145

Minimum 1222 0.034 2 30356 59 29 4.8 0.16 0.0524 0.4274 0.0315

Maximum 10363850

0.154 8714 112155 91.2 44.6 18.3 0.65 0.1143 0.5991 0.046

Sum 38049462

3.64 28916 3083205

4566.9 2094.7 530.3 25.78 4.801 30.4468 2.4143

Count 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58

PredictionsType of Variables Expected Sign for

CrimeExpected Sign for Unemployment

Population per square mile (2005 estimate)

+ +Median Family Income – –% High School Graduates

– –

Median Age – +% population age 18-24

+ +Children ( age 0-17) in low income families

+ +Marijuana + +Alcohol + +Other Illicit Drugs + +

Crime Regression

SUMMARY OUTPUT FELONY

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.59111352R Square 0.34941519Adjusted R Square 0.22743054Standard Error 369.317367Observations 58

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 9 3516240.441 390693.4 2.864419 0.008695677Residual 48 6546975.249 136395.3Total 57 10063215.69

Crime RegressionCoefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 4798.39725 1996.93817 2.40287Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)*

0.02348 0.04218 0.55670

Median Family Income

-0.016595 0.01026 -1.61707

% of HS Graduates 2000 Census

-10.31613 15.06715 -0.68467

Median Age -33.49329 29.31520 -1.14252

% Population 18-24 -56.77881 35.50606 -1.59913Children 0-17 in Low Income Families

-1063.10066 1385.77276 -0.76715

Marijuana Use (Past Month)

-902.18498 4231.57732 -0.21320

Alcohol Use (Past Month)

344.06654 2218.29846 0.15510

Illicit Drug Use 12087.98125 24232.66805 0.49882

Crime Findings 1% increase in Marijuana use leads

to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people

1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people

1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people.

Unemployment Regression

SUMMARY OUTPUT UNEMPLOYMENT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.82718876R Square 0.68424124Adjusted R Square 0.62503647Standard Error 0.01390091Observations 58

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 9 0.020099327 0.002233 11.5572 2.16981E-09Residual 48 0.009275294 0.000193Total 57 0.029374621

Unemployment RegressionCoefficients Standard

Errort Stat

Intercept 0.13457 0.07516 1.79033Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)*

2.12572E-06 1.58781E-06 1.33877

Median Family Income -3.51997E-07 3.86263E-07 -0.91128% of HS Graduates 2000 Census

-0.00246 0.00057 -4.33176

Median Age 0.00158 0.00111 1.43563% Population 18-24 -0.00029 0.00134 -0.22113Children 0-17 in Low Income Families

0.00212 0.05216 0.04059

Marijuana Use (Past Month)

-0.06984 0.15927 -0.43848

Alcohol Use (Past Month)

0.09322 0.08349 1.11642

Illicit Drug Use 0.97717 0.91210 1.07134

Unemployment Findings 1% increase in Marijuana use leads

to .07% decrease in unemployment

1% increase in Alcohol use leads to .09% increase in unemployment

1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to .97% increase in unemployment

Conclusion According to our model marijuana does not

increase serious crime or unemployment rates.

Alcohol and other illicit drugs pose a much worse problem

Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates

Possible limitations in our model Accuracy of data Other significant factors not included in our model Most recent 2000 Census data