what is sustainability when on the “climate roller coaster”! dr john russell la trobe...
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What is Sustainability when What is Sustainability when on the “Climate Roller on the “Climate Roller
Coaster”!Coaster”!Dr John RussellDr John Russell
La Trobe University, Bendigo.La Trobe University, Bendigo.2222thth February 2007 February 2007
Talking and ‘Waking’ Sustainability Conference Talking and ‘Waking’ Sustainability Conference Co author Kevin LongCo author Kevin Long
OUTLINEOUTLINE
How Bad is it?How Bad is it?
The “Climate Roller Coaster”!The “Climate Roller Coaster”!
What the papers say and positive What the papers say and positive responsesresponses
How Bad is it?How Bad is it?
LocalLocal
RegionalRegional
Australian and New ZealandAustralian and New Zealand
Global Drivers/Symptoms – El NinoGlobal Drivers/Symptoms – El Nino
Research Findings – Lake Eppalock Research Findings – Lake Eppalock Catchment – Location & WeatherCatchment – Location & Weather
Figure 1 The Goulburn-Murray Water Region in North Central Victoria showing the Headworks and Extent of Irrigation.
Map published by G-M Water
Research FindingsResearch Findings
Weather Systems and Weathering Weather Systems and Weathering CyclesCycles
Wet and Dry Sequences in the Wet and Dry Sequences in the Bendigo RegionBendigo Region
Campaspe River Inflow to Lake Campaspe River Inflow to Lake EppalockEppalock
Decreasing annual inflow
Dry Sequence
1878 to1952
Wet Sequence
1952 to 1996
Dry
Comparison of Wet & Dry Comparison of Wet & Dry SequencesSequences
Table 1 - A Summary of the Relationship between the Average Yearly Rainfall at Metcalfe and Inflow into Lake Eppalock. Note: 1mm of effective runoff equates to approximately 1% of reservoir fill. (Goulburn-Murray Water, 2005)
Period Average Yearly Rainfall at Metcalfe
Average Effective Rainfall (runoff) Across Catchment
Average Inflow to Lake Eppalock ML/Year
Average % of Inflow to Lake Eppalock/year
Wet Sequence 1952 to 1996
680 mm 66 mm 206,000 66%
Dry Sequence 1997 to 2006
560 mm 21 mm 65,000 21%
Dry Sequence 2001 to 2006
526 mm 7mm 25,000 7%
Eppalock Inflows Actual v ExpectedEppalock Inflows Actual v Expected
Figure 4 Eppalock Inflow Actual May 2000 to October 2005 and Average Inflow Envelope for Wet Sequence 1954 – 1996 (Zero inflow for 2006 as at 8th October 2006)
Figure 5. Shows the Combined Seasonal Inflow and Drawdown on Lake Eppalock from July 1996 to July 2006: In Hindsight a Gambol that did not Payoff.
Australian Rainfall AnomaliesAustralian Rainfall Anomalies
Figure 6 Australian Rainfall Anomalies – 36 months. Departures from the 36 month mean (1961 – 1990 base period)
Trend of Annual Rainfall Loss at Trend of Annual Rainfall Loss at BendigoBendigo
Table 1 Trend of Annual Rainfall Loss at Bendigo
Sample Span (Years)Loss of Rainfall (mm/year)
1950 - 2003 110
1970 - 2005 140
2003 - 2006 160
First Prime Minister’s BriefingFirst Prime Minister’s Briefing
Figure 7 Showing the Total Average inflows into the MDB - Comparing Drought Periods. Current inflow for 2006 shown in red.
First Prime Minister’s Briefing First Prime Minister’s Briefing 77thth November 2006 November 2006
Figures 8a and 8b. Showing the River Murray Inflows and Diversions for an extreme dry outlook.
First Prime Minister’s Briefing First Prime Minister’s Briefing 77thth November 2006 November 2006
Figures 8a and 8b. Showing the River Murray Inflows and Diversions for an extreme dry outlook.
Research Findings- Global Research Findings- Global Weather Uncertainities Major Weather Uncertainities Major
FactorsFactorsThe level of net radiation flux reaching The level of net radiation flux reaching the earth from the sun the earth from the sun global dimming due to air-travelglobal dimming due to air-travelglobal pollution of particulates smaller global pollution of particulates smaller than 2.5 micronthan 2.5 micronglobal warming gases due to human global warming gases due to human activity andactivity andThe rapid changing of carbon sinks. I.e. The rapid changing of carbon sinks. I.e. loss of forests, reduction of soil carbon loss of forests, reduction of soil carbon etc.etc.
Research Findings- Global Research Findings- Global Weather Uncertainties Weather Uncertainties Major Major
SymptomsSymptomsA weakening of trade windsA weakening of trade windsmelting of glaciers, permafrost, melting of glaciers, permafrost, Arctic and Antarctic iceArctic and Antarctic iceslowing of the Gulf-streamslowing of the Gulf-streamextremes in droughts, fires, floodsextremes in droughts, fires, floodsacidification of the oceans andacidification of the oceans andThe maintenance of abnormally The maintenance of abnormally warm South China and Philippines warm South China and Philippines Seas.Seas.
Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – El Nino Event La Nina EventEl Nino Event La Nina Event
Classic La Nina eventClassic El Nino event
Figure 9 Comparison of Classical El Nino and La Nina Events
Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – El Nino La NinaEl Nino La Nina
Figure 10 Classic paths of Cyclones resultant from either El Nino or La Nina Events
Top 10 El Nino EventsTop 10 El Nino Events
Figure 11 Top 10 El Nino Events of the Twentieth Century incorporating Global Surface Mean Temperature Anomalies
Trends of Annual Rainfall Trends of Annual Rainfall 1970 - 20051970 - 2005
Figure 13 Trend of Annual Rainfall1970 - 2005 (mm/10years)
““Climate Roller Coaster” Climate Roller Coaster” 500,000 Years500,000 Years
Figure 17 Showing the Cyclical Traces of Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Infra Red Temperature for the past 420000 years taken from the Vostok Ice Core where the Glacial-interglacial Cycling was measured. Note: Maximum CO2 reading is approximately 300ppmv current reading is approximately 360ppmv.
The Earth as a System
Note the high degree of self-regulation in the metabolism of the Earth System. From Steffen et al. 2004
Petit et al. 1999
The Vostok Ice Core: Glacial-Interglacial Cycling
““Climate Roller Coaster” Climate Roller Coaster” 100,000 years100,000 years
Figure 17 Showing the Cyclical Traces of Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Infra Red Temperature for the past 420000 years taken from the Vostok Ice Core where the Glacial-interglacial Cycling was measured. Note: Maximum CO2 reading is approximately 300ppmv current reading is approximately 360ppmv.
““Climate Roller Coaster” Climate Roller Coaster” 1000 years1000 years
Figure 19 1000 years of Northern Hemisphere Temperatures in a Degrees Centigrade.
Outline of Positive Responses and Outline of Positive Responses and what the papers say!what the papers say!
What follows,What follows,Our Time FramesOur Time Frames
What the ‘papers’ say,What the ‘papers’ say,
Advantages of Biological Farming in Advantages of Biological Farming in times of soil moisture stresstimes of soil moisture stress
Carbon Credits – Soil Sequestration Carbon Credits – Soil Sequestration Potential for our regional industriesPotential for our regional industries
Bio-Diesel power our region!Bio-Diesel power our region!
Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” for Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” for our region industriesour region industries
Advantages of biological farming in Advantages of biological farming in times of soil-moisture stresstimes of soil-moisture stress
Carbon Credits – Soil Carbon Credits – Soil Sequestration Potential for Sequestration Potential for
our regional industriesour regional industries
Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” for our region industriesfor our region industries
1.1. 1 tonne fodder factory/day equivalent to 1 tonne fodder factory/day equivalent to 40 acres of irrigated permanent pasture.40 acres of irrigated permanent pasture.
2.2. 5 kg fodder per cow … 25% daily intake.5 kg fodder per cow … 25% daily intake.3.3. Water efficiency ratio 100 : 1Water efficiency ratio 100 : 14.4. 100 kg barley produces 1000 kg fodder 100 kg barley produces 1000 kg fodder
grass.grass.5.5. Indoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2 Indoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2
tonnes/day - $85000 upwardstonnes/day - $85000 upwards6.6. Outdoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2 Outdoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2
tonnes/day - $20000tonnes/day - $20000