what is robust decision support?
TRANSCRIPT
Financially supported by
What is Robust Decision Support?
Greater Mekong Forum on Water, Food and Energy Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Oct 21-‐23, 2015
ScenariosCoherent stories of the future told to inform current decision-‐making with qualita7ve descrip7on to capture: – Cultural influences, values, behaviors – Shocks, disconJnuiJes – Texture, richness, imaginaJon, insight
OMen supported by quan7ta7ve analysis, to provide: – Definiteness, explicitness, detail – Consistency – Technical rigor, scienJfic accuracy
Scenarios are not predicJons. They describe futures that could be, rather than futures that will be, because…
The future can be surprising!
Forecast Reality
The home computer in 2004
But not completely unexpected
Forecast Reality
The home computer in 2004
Extremely compact
When to use scenarios Scenarios are useful when there are drivers that are highly uncertain and likely to have a large impact
Low Uncertainty
High Uncertainty
High Impact Trends CriJcal uncertainJes
Low Impact VariaJons
Scenarios
Trend analysis
Climate: A High-‐impact Driver
By late in this century: global mean temperature is projected to rise by 0.3 to 4.8 °C and global mean sea level is projected to rise 0.26 to 0.82 m • Many studies suggest that we will almost certainly pass 2.0°C (the
accepted “dangerous” threshold) by mid-‐century • Without rapid and dramaJc changes in global energy policy, an increase
of 4°C is likely by the late 21st century IPCC. FiMh Report. 2013. Summary for Policy Makers. Available at: CMIP5 Ensemble. Source: IPCC – 2013. Annex 1 – Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Change ProjecJons. htpt://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-‐report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_AnnexI_FINAL.pdf
But Impacts are Uncertain • By the Jme a child born today is 40 years old, storms that occurred once in 20 years could occur once in 10 years
• Or 5 years… • Or 18 years…
Return period in 1981-‐2000 = 20 years
Source: SREX
But Impacts are Uncertain • By the Jme a child born today is 40 years old, storms that occurred once in 20 years could occur once in 10 years
• Or 5 years… • Or 18 years…
Return period in 1981-‐2000 = 20 years
Source: SREX
But Impacts are Uncertain • By the Jme a child born today is 40 years old, storms that occurred once in 20 years could occur once in 10 years
• Or 5 years… • Or 18 years…
Return period in 1981-‐2000 = 20 years
Source: SREX
Robust Decision Support1. Develop a set of scenarios 2. IdenJfy indicators for desired outcomes 3. Propose different policy packages 4. Ask: What happens to the indicators under
different combinaJons of scenarios and policy packages? – QualitaJve models – QuanJtaJve models
QualitaJve or QuanJtaJve Modeling
Policy set 1 Policy set 2 Policy set 3Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
QualitaJve or QuanJtaJve Modeling
Policy set 1 Policy set 2 Policy set 3Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
Can we combine benefits?
QuanJtaJve ModelingPS 1 PS 2 PS 3 PS 4 PS 5 PS 6
Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6Scenario 7Scenario 8Scenario 9Scenario 10Scenario 11
QuanJtaJve ModelingPS 1 PS 2 PS 3 PS 4 PS 5 PS 6
Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6Scenario 7Scenario 8Scenario 9Scenario 10Scenario 11
Can we combine benefits?
Prac7cal steps for RDS with a quan7ta7ve model STEPS INPUT
1. Iden7fying key organiza7on: Actor Mapping
Series of stakeholder engagement meeJngs 2. Problem formula7on :
XLRM
Robust Strategy
4. Large ensemble of model runs 5. Scenario explora7on and visualiza7on
6. Trade-‐off Analysis
3. Model construc7on
QuesJonnaire, survey, interview, workshop, literature review
Data (climate and non-‐climate), computer, experts, meeJngs, experiences
Experts, scripJng, training
SoMware, data visualizaJon and workshops
SoMware, data visualizaJon and workshops
Thank You!
eric.kemp-‐benedict@sei-‐internaJonal.org