what is involved in the decision making process? what are the alternative decision-making models?...

What is involved in the decision making process?

What are the alternative decision-making

models?

What are key decision-making traps and issues?

What can be done to stimulate creativity in

decision making?

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9-2

Decision making

The process of choosing a course of action

for dealing with a problem or opportunity.


Ethics – the philosophical study of

morality or standards regarding good

character and conduct.

Ethical reasoning in decision-making

examines the consequences of a

decision on all stakeholders.


Moral dilemma

A situation where the decision maker faces

two or more ethically uncomfortable

alternatives.

Either alternative is potentially beneficial

or harmful.


Ethical double checks

Criteria

Utility – all stakeholders satisfied?

Rights – are all rights respected?

Justice – is it right?

Caring – is it fair to all concerned?


Ethical Double Checks

Spotlight Questions

Would my family approve this decision?

How would I feel if the decision was

published?

Would this decision be ok with the person I

most admire?


Programmed decisions

Involve routine problems that arise regularly and

can be addressed through standard responses.

Nonprogrammed decisions

Involve nonroutine problems that require solutions

specifically tailored to the situation at hand.

Crisis decision – unexpected problem threatens

major harm if not resolved appropriately.


Decisions are made in the context of

three general environments.

Certainty

Risk

Uncertainty

9-11Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

A decision environment is certain

When information is sufficient to predict

the results of each alternative in advance

of implementation.


A decision environment is risky

When decision makers lack complete

certainty regarding the outcomes of

various courses of action, but they are

aware of the probabilities associated with

their occurrence.


A decision environment is uncertain

When managers have so little information

on hand that they cannot even assign

probabilities to various alternatives and

their possible outcomes.


Risk Management

Programs instituted by organizations that

focus on anticipating risk in situations and

factoring risk alternatives into the decision-

making process.


Effective Decisions

Accomplish an established goal and are acceptable to those affected by it.

Garbage Can Model

Behavioral decision

Classical decision

Classical decision theory assumes a

manager:

Acts rationally and in a fully informed manner.

Faces a clearly defined problem.

Knows all possible action alternatives and their

consequences.

Chooses the optimum solution.


Behavior decision theory Suggests that people act only in terms of their

perceptions, which are frequently imperfect.

Satisficing Decision makers choose the first alternative

that appears to give an acceptable or

satisfactory resolution of the problem. The

‘good enough’ rule.


The garbage can model

The main components of the choice

process - problems, solutions, participants,

and choice situations – are all mixed

together in the “garbage can” of the

organization.


Systematic› Problem

approach utilizing a rational, analytic thinking.

Intuitive› Problem approach

that is flexible and spontaneous.

› A key element of decision making under risky and uncertainty conditions.


Teams engage in two cognitive processes:

Judgmental heuristics

Simplifying strategies or shortcuts used to

make decisions.

Make it easier to deal with uncertainty and

limited information.


Availability

heuristic› Involves

assessing a current event based on past occurrences that are easily available in one’s memory.

Representativenes

s heuristic› Involves assessing

the likelihood that an event will occur based on its similarity to one’s stereotypes of similar occurrences


Anchoring and adjustment heuristic

Bases a decision on incremental

adjustments to an initial value determined

by historical precedent or some reference

point.


Decision Bias

Confirmation – attending to only those salient cues

that confirm or support a pre-existing opinion.

Hindsight– believing that an event ‘should have’

been predicted.

Framing bias - tendency to consider what we could

gain from a decision vs. what we could lose. In

marketing, we ‘spin’ the outcomes.


In choosing problems to address, try the

following checklist:

What really matters?

Will the problem resolve w/o intervention?

Is this my decision to make?

Will time spent make a difference?


Authority decisions

Manager or team leader uses information

that he or she possesses and decides what

to do without involving others.


Consultative decisions

Manager or team leader solicits input from

other people and then, based on this

information and its interpretation, makes a

final choice.


Team decisions

Manager or team

leader consults

with others and

allows them to

help make the

final choice.


Escalating commitment Continuation and renewed effort on a previously chosen

course of action, even though it is not working.

Avoid by:

Setting limits to your involvement

Making your own decisions

Questioning the reasons for decision?

Considering costs of time and resources


Creativity

Involves the development of unique and

novel responses to problems and

opportunities.


Team creativity drivers

Situation offers opportunities.

Restraints on creativity are minimized.

Creative effort is recognized and rewarded.


Individual creativity drivers

Task expertise

High motivation

High creativity skill set


Ways of fostering creativity

Record all ideas so that the same ones are

not rediscovered.

Establish high expectations for creativity.

Develop a physical space that encourages

fun, divergent ideas.


An interesting site with simulations and

training on creative techniques and

ways to enhance your own individual

creativity.

Brainstorming.co.uk


what is involved in the decision making process? what are the alternative decision-making models?...

Documents

john wiley sons

decision making

decision environment

decision makers lack

problem caution

right problem

caring transparency

action utility