what is a metapopulation? and why should i care? hugh possingham and friends
TRANSCRIPT
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What is a metapopulation? And why should I care?
Hugh Possingham and friends
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How to manage a metapopulationProblem 1
Michael Westphal (UC Berkeley),
Drew Tyre (U Nebraska), Scott Field (UQ)
Can we make metapopulation theory useful?
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Specifically: how to reconstruct habitat for a small metapopulation• Part of general problem of optimal landscape
design – the dynamics of how to reconstruct landscapes
• Minimising the extinction probability of one part of the Mount Lofty Ranges Emu-wren population.
• Metapopulation dynamics based on Stochastoc Patch Occupancy Model (SPOM) of Day and Possingham (1995)
• Optimisation using Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) see Possingham (1996)
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The Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia
Hugh’s birthplace
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MLR Southern Emu Wren
• Small passerine (Australian malurid)
• Very weak flyer
• Restricted to swamps/fens
• Listed as Critically Endangered subspecies
• About 450 left; hard to see or hear
• Has a recovery team (flagship)
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The Cleland Gully
Metapopulation;
basically isolated
Figure shows options
Where should we revegetate now, and in the future? Does it depend on the state of the metapopulation?
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Stochastic Patch Occupancy Model(Day and Possingham, 1995)
State at time, t, (0,1,0,0,1,0)
Intermediate states
State at time, t+1, (0,1,1,0,1,0)
(0,0,0,0,1,0)
Extinction process
Colonization process
(0,1,0,0,1,0)
(0,1,0,0,0,0)
Plus fire
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The SPOM• A lot of “population” states, 2n, where n is the number
of patches. The transition matrix is 2n by 2n in size (128 by 128 in this case).
• A “chain binomial” model; SPOM has recolonisation and local extinction where functional forms and parameterization follow Moilanen and Hanski
• Overall transition matrix, a combination of extinction and recolonization, depends on the “landscape state”, a consequence of past restoration activities
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Decision theory steps
• Set objective (minimize extinction prob)
• Define state variables (population and landscape states) and control variables (options for restoration)
• Describe state dynamics – the SPOM
• Set constraints (one action per 5 years)
• Solve: in this case SDP
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Control options (one per 5 years, about 1ha reveg)
E5: largest patch bigger, can do 6 times
E2: most connected patch bigger, 6 times
C5: connect largest patch
C2: connect patches1,2,3
E7: make new patch
DN: do nothing
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E5E5E5E5E5
Management trajectories:1 – only largest patch occupied
C5
E5
E7
DN
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E5E5E5E5
Management trajectories:2 – all patches occupied
C2E2
E7DNE5
E5E5E2 C5
E2
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Take home message
• Metapopulation state matters• Actions justifiable but no clear sweeping
generalisation, no simple rule of thumb!• Previous work has assumed that landscape
and population dynamics are uncoupled. This paper represents the first spatially explicit optimal landscape design for a threatened species.
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Other issues
• Computational problems
• Problems, models and algorithms – what are they?
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Optimal translocation strategiesProblem 2
Consider the Arabian Oryx Oryx leucoryx – if we know how many are in the wild, and in a zoo, and we know birth and death rates in the zoo and the wild, how many should we translocate to or from the wild to maximise persistence of the wild population
Brigitte Tenhumberg, Drew Tyre (U Nebraska), Katriona Shea (Penn State)
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Oryx problem
Zoo Population
Growth rate R = 1.3 Capacity = 20
Wild Population
??
Growth rate R = 0.85 Capacity = 50
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Result – base parameters
Captive Population
Wild
Pop
ulat
ion
C
R
Captive Population
Wild
Pop
ulat
ion
C
R
R = release, mainly when population in zoo is near capacityC = capture, mainly when zoo population small, capture entire wild population when this would roughly fill the zoo
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If zoo growth rate changes, results change – but for a “new” species we
won’t know R in the zoo
Enter – active adaptive management,Management with a plan for learning
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Metapopulaton dynamics in a dynamic landscape
What do mussels, Leadbeater’s possum and annual herbs have in common? Empirical conversations over a long time
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Eradicate, Exploit, Conserve
Decision TheoryPure Ecological Theory
Applied
Theoretical
Ecology
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