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What Does it Mean? What Does it Mean?

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Consumer Default: What are the Odds?

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Page 1: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

What Does it Mean?What Does it Mean?

Page 2: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

• Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late

or more on a particular loan obligation

• Each score is specific for each bureau

• Scores range from…

… 300 to 850 for Classic FICO ““Fair Isaac ONLYFair Isaac ONLY””

… The higher the score the less the odds of default

• The score is generated by analyzing the information contained in the The score is generated by analyzing the information contained in the

consumer’s credit report at consumer’s credit report at THATTHAT point in timepoint in time

What Does The Score Mean?What Does The Score Mean?

Page 3: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

Consumer Default: What are the Odds?Consumer Default: What are the Odds?

Page 4: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

ScoreScore OddsOddsAbove 800 1485 to 1720 to 799 649 to 1680 to 719 112 to 1620 to 679 47 to 1Below 620 15 to 1

Page 5: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

FICO ScoreFICO Score APR RateAPR Rate Monthly Monthly

PaymentPayment

Interest PaidInterest Paid

720-850720-850 5.3%5.3% 2776.522776.52 $499,549$499,549

700-719700-719 5.9%5.9% 2965.682965.68 $567,647$567,647

680-699680-699 6.5%6.5% 3160.343160.34 $637,722$637,722

620-679620-679 7.6%7.6% 3530.373530.37 $770,937$770,937

560-619560-619 8.4%8.4% 3809.193809.19 $871,305$871,305

500-599500-599 9.9%9.9% 4350.954350.95 $1,066,352$1,066,352

Compare 30 yr fixed rates on a $500,000 home

Page 6: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

SAMSAM LARRYLARRY

SalarySalary Equal Equal

Credit ScoreCredit Score 681 595

Yearly SavingsYearly Savings $14,288 0

Interest Saved over 30 YearsInterest Saved over 30 Years $428,630 0

10% return on savings 10% return on savings

compounded total in 30 yrs.compounded total in 30 yrs. $ 2,476,911$ 2,476,911 $0$0

Page 7: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

Credit Score ComponentsCredit Score Components

2 - 30%

1 - 35%

5 - 10%

3 - 15%

4 - 10% 1.1. Payment HistoryPayment History

2.2. Debt RatioDebt Ratio

3.3. Average Age of FileAverage Age of File

4.4. Credit MixtureCredit Mixture

5.5. InquiriesInquiries

Page 8: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

1. Past Delinquencies…1. Past Delinquencies…

35% of of Credit ScoreCredit Score

Page 9: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

Timing of the delinquency

Level of Delinquency

Last activity date

Past Due Notices destroy scores

Missed payments (low vs. high)

Pay-off collections in Escrow NOT before Pay-off collections in Escrow NOT before (Catch 22, can go either way )(Catch 22, can go either way )

Page 10: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

Delinquencies on Credit ReportsDelinquencies on Credit Reports BankruptciesBankruptcies

… … Chapter 7 & 11 Chapter 7 & 11 10 Years from filing date10 Years from filing date

… … Chapter 13 Chapter 13 7 Years from filing date7 Years from filing date

Tax Liens*Tax Liens* 7 Years from date satisfied7 Years from date satisfied

Late PaymentsLate Payments 7 Years7 Years

Charge-offsCharge-offs 7 1/2 Years from 1st late pay7 1/2 Years from 1st late pay

JudgmentsJudgments 7 Years or S.O.L.7 Years or S.O.L.

InquiriesInquiries 2 Years2 Years

Page 11: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

2. Revolving Debt Ratio2. Revolving Debt Ratio

30% of of Credit ScoreCredit Score

Page 12: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

Cards: Cards: …Share debt among many cards…Share debt among many cards

……Use each every 6 monthsUse each every 6 months

……Do not close credit cardsDo not close credit cards

……Pay-off before closing datePay-off before closing date

……Get added as an authorizer userGet added as an authorizer user

Page 13: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

Credit Credit …Ask for credit limit increases…Ask for credit limit increases

LimitLimit …Maintain balances below 10%…Maintain balances below 10%

……Make sure the limit is reportedMake sure the limit is reported

Page 14: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

Spouse: Spouse: …Keep credit separate from spouse…Keep credit separate from spouse

……Transfer debt to one Transfer debt to one

spousespouse

Page 15: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

3. Average Age of Credit File…3. Average Age of Credit File…

15% of Credit Score

Page 16: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

The longer the history, the better

Hold onto old credit cards

Piggyback off Mom to get historyPiggyback off Mom to get history

Page 17: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

4. The Mix of Credit …4. The Mix of Credit …

10% of of Credit ScoreCredit Score

Page 18: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

A mixture is best 3 to 5 revolving credit cards A mortgage account Auto loan Equity lines of creditEquity lines of credit

Page 19: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

5. Inquiries …5. Inquiries …

10% of of Credit ScoreCredit Score

Page 20: What Does it Mean?. Predicts the statistical chance of a consumer becoming 90 days late or more on a particular loan obligation Each score is specific

Inquiries affect the score for 1 year Inquiries can cost 0 – 50 points Score is only reduced for 1st 10 inquiries Auto & mortgage inquiries

… have a 30 day buffer period… within a 45 day period are treated as 1

Many inquiries don’t countMany inquiries don’t count … … personalpersonal

… … promotional & job relatedpromotional & job related… … insurance & account reviewsinsurance & account reviews