what data were included?
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What data were included?. Five key jobs more finely broken out into: Lineworkers , Power Plant Operators , Electric T & D Technicians , Gas T&D technicians, Generation Technicians and Engineers Jobs separated by Generation and Transmission & Distribution, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2011 CEWD Survey Results
Draft Not for Distribution
What data were included? Five key jobs more finely broken out into:
Lineworkers, Power Plant Operators, Electric T & D Technicians, Gas T&D technicians, Generation Technicians and Engineers
Jobs separated by Generation and Transmission & Distribution,
Data on nuclear power (except for total company data) or supplemental labor are not included
Data collected on age and years of service for current employees, actual and forecasted attrition and actual and forecasted hires
Survey data collected in July 2011 for 2010
Who participated? The number of companies participating in the past
surveys has varied. In 2011 we had:• 28 Electric and Natural Gas Utilities / Energy Companies• All Electric Cooperatives
The number of employees represented by the data are comparable:• 2006 – 235,235 employees• 2007 – 267,802 employees• 2010 – 261,092 employees
• Data represents about 50% of all U.S. Electric and Natural Gas employees (Total US estimate is 525,000 employees)
2011 Pipeline Survey Results Average age has increased slightly
2006 - 45.7 2007 – 45.3 2010 – 46.1
Median age increased slightly to 46
Total Industry Jobs have decreased since last survey
5
2007 Jobs 2008 Jobs 2009 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2011 Jobs510,000
515,000
520,000
525,000
530,000
535,000
540,000
Total Jobs for Electric and Natural Gas NAICS Codes
Total Jobs
6
Lineworkers Plant / Field Operators
Technicians Engineers -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Total Key Occupations Without NuclearN
umbe
r of J
obs
Californ
iaTe
xas
New York
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Florid
aOhio
Michigan
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2011 Jobs
Electric and Natural Gas Utility Jobs
7
Half of all the Electric and Natural Gas Utility Jobs are in 9 States
Age DistributionTotal Company
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67+0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2010 Age
% o
f Em
ploy
ees
Age DistributionElectric & Natural Gas Utility Employees
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67+0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Now 5 Years Out 10 Years Out Age
% o
f Em
ploy
ees
Includes rural electric cooperatives
10
2010 DataLine Workers
10Includes rural electric cooperatives
2010 DataElectric T&D Technicians
1111Includes rural electric cooperatives
2010 DataNon-nuclear Plant Operators
1212Includes rural electric cooperatives
2010 DataNon-nuclear Generation Technicians
1313Includes rural electric cooperatives
14Includes rural electric cooperatives
2010 DataAll Engineers
Ready Now (2011)– Over age 63– Over age 58 with 25 years of service
Ready in 1-5 years (2012 – 2016)– Over age 58– Over age 53 and 21 years of service
Ready in 6-10 years (2017 – 2021)– Over age 53– Over age 48 and 16 years of service
Retirement assumptions
15
Industry Replacement Forecast Based on Age and Years of Service
16
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Total Company Replacements
Retained 5 year Non-Retirement Attrition (18%)Ready Now (10%) Ready in 1-5 Years (18%)Ready in 6-10 Years (19%)
Key Jobs Replacement Forecast Based on Age and Years of Service
17
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Key Jobs Potential Replacements
Retained 5 year Non-Retirement Attrition (14%)Ready Now (9%) Ready in 1-5 Years (15%)Ready in 6-10 Years (16%)
Lineworkers Replacement Forecast Based on Age and Years of Service
18
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Lineworker Potential Replacements
Retained 5 year Non-Retirement Attrition (13%)Ready Now (7%) Ready in 1-5 Years (12%)Ready in 6-10 Years (15%)
Technicians Replacement Forecast Based on Age and Years of Service
19
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Technician Potential Replacements
Retained 5 year Non-Retirement Attrition (12%)Ready Now (10%) Ready in 1-5 Years (18%)Ready in 6-10 Years (18%)
Plant and Field Operators Replacement Forecast Based on Age and Years of Service
20
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Plant and Field Operator Potential Replacements
Retained 5 year Non-Retirement Attrition (11%)Ready Now (8%) Ready in 1-5 Years (17%)Ready in 6-10 Years (17%)
Engineers Replacement Forecast Based on Age and Years of Service
21
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Engineer Potential Replacements
Retained 5 year Non-Retirement Attrition (14%)Ready Now (11%) Ready in 1-5 Years (15%)Ready in 6-10 Years (15%)
Attrition and Hires through 2015Key Jobs only
22
2008 Actual
2009 Actual
2010 Actual
2011 Projection
2012 Projection
2013 Projection
2014 Projection
2015 Projection
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Industry Projections Key Job Categories
Attrition Retirement Hires
Key Jobs Retirement Projections Based on Age and Years of Service
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Actual Non-retirement Attrition Actual RetirementsProjected Non-retirement attrition Ready NowReady in 1-5 years Ready in 6-10 yearsHires
Lineworkers Retirement Projections Based on Age and Years of Service
24
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Actual Non-retirement Attrition Actual RetirementsProjected Non-retirement attrition Ready NowReady in 1-5 years Ready in 6-10 yearsHires
Technician Retirement Projections Based on Age and Years of Service
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Actual Non-retirement Attrition Actual RetirementsProjected Non-retirement attrition Ready NowReady in 1-5 years Ready in 6-10 yearsHires
Plant and Field Operators Retirement Projections Based on Age and Years of Service
26
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Actual Non-retirement Attrition Actual RetirementsProjected Non-retirement attrition Ready NowReady in 1-5 years Ready in 6-10 yearsHires
Engineers Retirement Projections Based on Age and Years of Service
27
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Actual Non-retirement Attrition Actual RetirementsProjected Non-retirement attrition Ready NowReady in 1-5 years Ready in 6-10 yearsHires
Balancing Supply and Demand for Energy Technicians
Demand Supply
Ready Now – Current Openings =
?
MilitaryTransitioning AdultsCC GraduatesRecent Energy Career
Academy GradsUnion Apprenticeships
Ready in 1-2 Years * – positions currently projected = 34,794
Currently enrolled in CC, HS SeniorsHS Juniors in Energy Career Academy
Ready in 3-5 Years – positions currently projected = 29,584
Currently in Grades 9-11
Ready in 6-10 Years – positions currently projected =
29,455Currently in Grades 4-8
*includes Ready Now Potential Retirees, attrition and 40% of Ready in 1-5 years
2011 CEWD Survey
29
01-05 06-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 30+0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Percentage Change in Years of Service
200620072010
Industry Hiring
30
2008 Actual
2009 Actual
2010 Actual
2011 Projecti
on
2012 Projection
2013 Projection2
2014 Projection
2015 Projection
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Skilled Trades and Engineer Hires
Lineworkers Technicians Plant/Field Ops Engineers
Retirement ProjectionsBased on Company estimates in survey
31
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Actual Non-retirement Attrition Actual RetirementsProjected Non-retirement Attrition Projected RetirementsHires
Retirement Projections Based on Age and Years of Service
32
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Actual Non-retirement Attrition Actual RetirementsProjected Non-retirement attrition Ready NowReady in 1-5 years Ready in 6-10 yearsHires
26% of Utility Employees have been in their positions between 0 and 5 years
33
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Age and Years of ServiceTotal Company for 2010
0 to 5 YOS 26% 6 to10 YOS 15% 11 to 15 YOS 10% 16 to 20 YOS 8%21 to 25 YOS 12% 26 to 30 YOS 13% 30+ YOS 16%
26% of employees in Key Jobs have been in their positions between 0 and 5 years
3418-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Age and Years of ServiceTotal Key Jobs for 2010
0 to 5 YOS 26% 6 to10 YOS 16% 11 to 15 YOS 10%16 to 20 YOS 9% 21 to 25 YOS 12% 26 to 30 YOS 11%
25% of Lineworkers have been in their positions between 0 and 5 years
35
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Age and Years of ServiceTotal Lineworkers for 2010
0 to 5 YOS 25% 6 to10 YOS 18% 11 to 15 YOS 12% 16 to 20 YOS 9%21 to 25 YOS 13% 26 to 30 YOS 10% 30+ YOS 13%
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Age and Years of ServiceTotal Technicians for 2010
0 to 5 YOS 25% 6 to10 YOS 18% 11 to 15 YOS 12% 16 to 20 YOS 9%21 to 25 YOS 13% 26 to 30 YOS 10% 30+ YOS 13%
25% of Technicians have been in their positions between 0 and 5 years
36
25% of Plant and Field Operators have been in their positions between 0 and 5 years
37
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Age and Years of ServiceTotal Plant and Field Operators for 2010
0 to 5 YOS 25% 6 to10 YOS 18% 11 to 15 YOS 12% 16 to 20 YOS 9%21 to 25 YOS 13% 26 to 30 YOS 10% 30+ YOS 13%
25% of Engineers have been in their positions between 0 and 5 years
38
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67plus0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Age and Years of ServiceTotal Engineers for 2010
0 to 5 YOS 25% 6 to10 YOS 18% 11 to 15 YOS 12% 16 to 20 YOS 9%21 to 25 YOS 13% 26 to 30 YOS 10% 30+ YOS 13%
62 % of the workforce may need to be replaced in the next 10 years 39
Retained38%
5 year Non-Retirement At -trition
18%
Retirement Ready Now 9%
Retirement in 1 to 5 years
17%
Retirement in 6 to 10 years
18%
Total Industry Potential Replacement Impact on Retirement and Non-Retirement Attrition
52 % of skilled technicians and engineers may need to be replaced in the next 10 years40
Retained48%
5 year Non-Retirement
Attrition12%
Retirement Ready Now 9%
Retirement in 1 to 5 years
15%
Retirement in 6 to 10 years
16%
Key Jobs - Potential Replacement Impact on Retirement and Non-Retirement Attrition
Retained53%
5 year Non-Retirement
Attrition13%
Retirement Ready Now 5%
Retirement in 1 to 5 years
12%
Retirement in 6 to 10 years
15%
Lineworker - Potential Replacement Impact on Retirement and Non-Retirement Attrition
47 % of Lineworkers may need to be replaced in the next 10 years 41
42
58% of Plant and Field Operators may need to be replaced in the next 10 years
Retained42%
5 year Non-Retirement
Attrition12%
Retirement Ready Now
8%
Retirement in1 to 5 years
17%
Retirement in 6 to 10 years
17%
Plant and Field Operator - Potential Replacement Impact on Retirement and Non-Retirement Attrition
43
Retained47%
5 year Non-Retirement
Attrition12%
Retirement Ready Now
11%
Retirement in1 to 5 years
15%
Retirement in 6 to 10 years
15%
Engineers - Potential Replacement Impact on Retirement and Non-Retirement Attrition
53% of Engineers may need to be replaced in the next 10 years
44
Retained42%
5 year Non-Retirement
Attrition11%
Retirement Ready Now
10%
Retirement in 1 to 5 years
18%
Retirement in 6 to 10 years
19%
Technician - Potential Replacement Impact on Retirement and Non-Retirement Attrition
53% of Technicians may need to be replaced in the next 10 years
Potential Replacements by 2020
45
Potential Replacements 2010 - 2015
Potential Replacements 2015 - 2020
Job CategoryPotential
Attrition & Retirement
Estimated Number of
Replacements
Potential Retirement
Estimated Number of Replacements
Lineworkers 32% 22,100 15% 10,300
Technicians 39% 28,500 19% 13,500
Plant Operators 37% 12,400 17% 5,800
Engineers 38% 10,600 15% 4,100
Total 36% 73,600 16% 33,700
Totals exclude Nuclear
Potential Replacements by 2020
46
Potential Replacements 2010 - 2020
Job CategoryPotential Attrition &
RetirementEstimated Number of
Replacements
Lineworkers 47% 32,300
Technicians 58% 42,000
Plant Operators 54% 18,200
Engineers 53% 14,700Totals exclude Nuclear
Potential Replacements by 2015
47
Nuclear
Technici
ans
Lineworkers
Plant Operators
Engineers
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
30,000 28,500
22,000
12,40010,600
Age DistributionElectric and Natural Gas Utilities
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 67+0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2010 Age
% o
f Em
ploy
ees
Almost 2/3 of the respondents said their companies were involved in Smart Grid initiatives
Focus is primarily on Smart Metering Key impact is on Meter Readers and
Meter Technicians
Smart Grid Responses
49
Less than 10% of respondents include contractor labor in their workforce plans
Contractors
50
For more information, contact:
Ann RandazzoExecutive Director
Center for Energy Workforce Development701 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.Washington, D.C. [email protected]
www.cewd.org