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1.WHAT ARE WE DOING

TO OUR CLIMATE?

2. WHAT IS OUR CLIMATE

DOING TO US?

3, WHAT CAN WE DO?

By Paul H. Carr,

IEEE Life Fellow

IRAS Climate

Conference

Champion

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IRAS CONFERENCE OVERVIEW

Climate change is complex with causes

and consequences in:

economic,

ecological,

ethical, and

technological realms.

A goal of the Institute of Religion in an

Age of Science (IRAS) is to yoke climate

science with the power of spiritual values.

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• Scientists will be introducing you to

economic,

ecological, and

technological issues.

• Theologians and philosophers will

develop the ethical imperative to

address climate change with the

power of spiritual values, grounded in

the sacredness of nature created by a

divine power.

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OVERVIEW OF MY TALK

• Climate change is an unintended

consequence of carbon dioxide emissions

from burning fossil fuels.

• Let’s harness our profit greed to develop

green technology.

• By pricing in the social and environmental

cost of fossil fuel emissions, we can

reduce and eliminate them.

1. WHAT ARE WE DOING TO OUR CLIMATE?

The scientific consensus.

The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 BILLION IS

INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS

THAT EMIT GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.

a. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING

Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a

rate of 2.5 ppm per year.

b. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES

18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower.

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2017 CO2 levels

of 410 ppm are

130 ppm above

the pre-

industrial

average

1875

• Carbon

isotope ratios

indicate the

CO2 increase

since1750 is

from burning

~300 million yr

old fossil

fuels.

1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING

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Little Ice Age

• C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN.

• TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C

• TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C

http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2014/2/watching-earth-

HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINTAtmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite.

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CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE.

CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature.

Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet), giving rise to Flood stories.

4 M PEOPLE 7 B

Ice Age

Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012)

During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the

global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries.

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Holocene Era

Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.

2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.

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At present rate

of 2.5 ppm

rise per year,

humans are

increasing

CO2 at a rate

300 times

faster than

the recovery

from the ice

age 18,000 -

10,000 years

ago.

CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS,

COULD REACH ~800 PPM, DOUBLING BY 21OO.

Ice

Age

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• Our present level of 410 ppm could reach ~ 800 ppm by 2100.

• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm.

• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm

-Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher.

Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS

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A darker Arctic is boosting global warmingFrom1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water

made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract

Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.

CO2, METHANE, & GERMS ARE RELEASED AS THE FROZEN TUNDRA MELTS

ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS

SATELITE PHOTO

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2. WHAT OUR CLIMATE IS DOING TO US.

“The earth and its poor cry out, and we must listen” Pope Francis

• Rising sea levels from thermal expansion and

melting mountain glaciers, Greenland, & Antarctica.

• Oceans becoming more acidic from CO2 absorption,

threatening the bottom of the food chain.

• Weather extremes are increasing:

-Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods & Snow.

Atmosphere holds more water vapor at higher temps.

-Dry areas, drier: Expanded Deserts, Droughts & Wildfires.

• Climate Refugees ”CLIMmigration” from droughts.

• Health Hazards

- Tick-born Lyme Disease doubled since 1990 as winters warm.

- West-Nile and Zika Viruses could increase.

- Germs released as Arctic melts, Anthrax cases reported.

RISING SEAS

• Sea levels are now rising 4 times

faster than in 1900.

• Sea levels could rise up to 18 ft

by 2058.

• 2015 & 2016: warmest years on

record.

SOLUTIONS: Green Technology

Expedited by Legislation..

“Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High

Tides.” Whitney Bauman

Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)

Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).

Sea level rise has increased to 12 in/century at present from 3 in/century 1870– 1924.

12 in./100 years.

7.5 in./100 years

3 in. /100 years

GREENLAND IS MELTING FASTER: Reflecting snow replaced by absorbing water. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/06/viking-weather/essick-

photography

Climate Scientist Jim Hansen’s 1981

Temperature Predictions Came True.

What about his 2016 sea level rise

prediction of 18 feet by 2058 ?

1981 2015

This global temperature chart is updated at Columbia University.

Data is based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources) as described

by Hansen et al.

2016 & 2015

Warmest

years

On Record

“CO2 warming

should emerge

from the noise

of natural

variability

(1981)” Hansen

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-

phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC

Attribution 3.0 License.

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence

from paleoclimate data, climate modeling….

James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson-

Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair

Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12,….

1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY

10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403,

USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880

Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du

Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol

Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075,

China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA

8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the

Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, USA 10Department of

Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA 11GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre

for Ocean Research, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany 12Mediterranean Institute of

Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde, France 13Department of Applied Physics and Applied

Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA

Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016

Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to

prevent a 5 m (18 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100s of years.

Atmos. Chem. Phys., March

2016. J. Hansen et. al.

1 M TIPPING

LEVEL

5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise

NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of

Mexico, Western Antarctica. Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University,

an author of the last IPCC report: “If the Thwaites

Glacier breaks free from it rocky berth, it would raise sea

levels 10 ft.” 24

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March for

Science,

Earth Day,

April 22,

2017

Poster.

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Weather Extremes Have More

Than Doubled

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Three Fold

Increase in

Wildfires since

1970

Fort McMurray

Wildfire: 80,000

Evacuated Over

Out-of-Control

Blaze, May 2016.

Nature ”crying

out” to destroy

the Canadian oil

sands mining?

Environmental

Justice?

Droughts increase wildfires.

Warmer winters no longer kill off the

Western Pine beetle, leaving more dead

trees as flammable timber.

Arab Spring after food price increases.Summer 2010 drought in Russia: No longer exported wheat.

CLIMmigration: Before the 2011 Syrian revolution, 2006.- 2009 drought in

Syria led 1.5 million farmers to migrate to cities. Migration is continuing.

REVOLUTIONS & CLIMATE MIGRATON FOLLOWING DROUGHTS

3. WHAT WE CAN DO:A. ADAPTATON, A MUST DO.

B. MITIGATION: NON-CO2 EMITTING

SOLAR, WIND, STORAGE & NUCLEAR

TECHNOLOGY, ACCELERATED BY

CARBON FEE PLUS DIVIDEND.

Harnessing profit greed towards green.

C Do nothing different: then complain and blame.

The poor will suffer the most. Pope Francis “On Care for our

Common Home.”

SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL

WARMING from CO2

Electric Cars powered by

• Windmills

• Solar PV energy from

nuclear fusion in our sun.

• Nuclear Fission Power

Plants

Electric cars now get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon.

If everyone bought a hybrid or

electric car, oil companies

would go the way of many

coal companies: bankrupt.

2012 Chevy Volt Plug-In Hybrid:

90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery

40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator

350 mile range.

2016 NISSAN

LEAF®

As low as:

$27,700*Net value

after

federal tax credit

106City MPGal

107 mi range.

Leaf bought for $10,000 after 3 year

Mitusbishi i

ELECTRIC

CARS

ALL ELECTRIC 2017 CHEVY BOLT EV

• 238 mile range after charging.

• 120 mpg equivalent

• Acceleration 0 to 60 mpg in 6.3 second, about ½ that

of Tesla Model S, but the Bolt’s cost is ½,

about $33,000 with the Federal rebate.

The batteries, motor, and one-speed transmission are made

in S. Korea. The Bolt is assembled in Michigan.

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E. Will a New Glass Battery Accelerate the End of Oil?IEEE SPECTRUM 3 March 2017

John Goodenough, 94 co-inventor (1980) of the

lithium-ion battery, heads a team of researchers

developing the technology that could one day

supplant it.

The lithium- or

sodium-glass battery

has three times the

energy storage

capacity of a

comparable lithium-ion

battery.

“”The next step is to

verify that the cathode

problem is solved,”

Goodenough says.

“And when we do

[that] we can scale up

to large-scale cells.

Yet, the world has

seen alleged game-

changing battery

breakthroughs come

to naught before.

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3. Reduced Food Waste

(70.53)

4. Plant-Rich Diet

(66.11)

POPULATION

REDUCTION:

6. Educating Girls (59.60)

7. Family Planning

(59.60)

37Contrary to Trump’s claim, reducing CO2 emissions in 1980 & 2010 did not wreck

our economy, i.e. decrease our GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

38India,with a billion people similar to China, is a Wild

Card that could equal China’s emissions.

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Why are per person carbon emissions in the US twice those of Europe?

$0.30. Gasoline $1.00

Gasoline 2X price in US

Natural gas

cheaper than

coal.

10/9/15

www.

CitizensClimateLobby.org

- Revenue neutral

carbon fee with

dividend. (RNCFD)

-Dividend would be

returned to

everyone.

$2000 / family.

-Stimulating

economy & creating

2 million jobs.

- Stimulate Green

Energy Innovation.True social cost of burning fossil fuels.

Harness Greed towards Green

Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing

Schools must sometimes be closed.World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3

Aerosol level in Beijing: 505 mg/m3

One million deaths per year globally.

HEALTH

COSTS OF

COAL

BURNINGAir pollutants from

coal combustion act

on the respiratory

system, contributing to

serious health effects

including asthma, lung

disease and lung

cancer,

PROBLEM: IN the US by 2040,NATURAL GAS & COAL WILL BE THE LARGEST SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY.

SOLUTION: NEXT GENERATION NUCLEAR REACTORS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AND THEREBY REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS 24/7

Figure from “Coal’s Last Kick” TIME, April 17, 2017

Not 24/7

Nuclear power paves the only viable path forward

on climate change, By NASA’s Dr. James Hansen , MIT’s Prof. Kerry Emanuel, and

two other top climate scientists, (Op-Ed Guardian, 3 Dec 2015)

They stated, “Modern nuclear technology can reduce

proliferation risks and solve the waste disposal problem

by burning current waste and using fuel more

efficiently. Innovation and economies of scale can

make new power plants even cheaper than existing

plants.”

Engineers at MIT are designing a nuclear plant

that could be moored at sea, like an oil rig. It would

cost about one-third less than a conventional plant and

take about half the time to build. Floating reactors

wouldn’t be in anyone’s backyard (NIMBY).

Bill Gates is funding a solution to the

nuclear waste problem. http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-talks-private-nuclear-fission-

plant-terrapower-2016-4

Gates said that TerraPower's nuclear

pilot plant will be built with the China

National Nuclear Corp. The economics,

safety, waste, and all the key parameters

are dramatically improved.

The traveling wave reactor converts

depleted uranium, a byproduct of the

nuclear-fission process, into usable

fuel.

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Alvin Weinberg demonstrated a

Thorium nuclear fission reactor

at Oak Ridge in 1970. Its fission

byproducts had no weapons

value during the Cold War’s

nuclear arms race and zero

chance of a meltdown.

Thorium reactors lost to Navy

Admiral Rickover’s Uranium

ones for nuclear submarines and

aircraft carriers. Present

uranium civilian reactors, which

generate 20% of our electricity

without carbon emissions, are a

spinoff from Rickover’s navy

technology.

How fear of nuclear power is hurting

the environment | YouTube 2016 TED Talk by Michael

Shellenberger

BACKGROUND:

• SOLAR ENERGY IS NUCLEAR.

The energy that enables life on earth comes from the

nuclear fusion of hydrogen into helium in our sun.

• Solar energy is available 26% of the time,

wind 33% of the time,

and nuclear 24/7

GLOBALLY: The 7% decrease in Nuclear generated electricity is greater than the +3.8% increase in Solar & Wind.

To make up for the difference, we are burning more fossil fuels, which increase our carbon dioxide emissions .

This is particularly true in Germany. Electricity cost is twice that in the US.

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Trump Could Fuel A Nuclear Energy Boom In 2017James Stafford - Dec 06, 2016

http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Could-Fuel-A-Nuclear-

Energy-Boom-In-2017.html

When I asked MIT Prof

of Nuclear Science &

Engineering,

Ian Hutchison about

this he replied, “The

Republicans are less

scared of nuclear

energy than the

Democrats.”

https://clearpath.org

“Conservative Clean

Energy” advocates nuclear.

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1.WHAT ARE WE DOING TO OUR CLIMATE, Scientific Consensus

2. WHAT OUR CLIMATE IS DOING TO US.

“The earth and the poor cry out. We must listen.” Pope Francis

Act now or swim later.

3, WHAT CAN WE DO.

• Let’s harness our profit greed towards encouraging green technology.

Former Republican Treasury Secretary Charles Shultz advocates the CCL

carbon fee plus dividend to reduce CO2 emissions and create jobs.

• Solar energy is nuclear. Reactors are a way forward.

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She was a plenary speaker at our 1969 IRAS conference.

* * *

Ask not what our country can do for you.

Ask what you can do now to save our planet.

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We need an IRAS author

to write a climate change

book to make a similar

impact.

RACHEL CARSON’S “SILENT SPRING”

(1962) LED TO THE BANNING OF DDT

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The following slides contain

supplemental details that may be of

interest.

Paul H. Carr

Web page www.MirrorOfNature.org

To learn about the other speakers at the IRAS www.iras.org

Conference, “The Wicked Problem of Climate Change: What

is it doing to us and for us?

Please visit

http://thewickedproblemofclimatechange.weebly.com

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THORIUM MOLTEN SALT (MSR) NUCLEAR REACTORS

Demonstrated 1965-1970 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Would have been better for peaceful deployment.

• Consume nearly 100% of their fuel, compared with 3% for older reactors with

solid uranium fuel.

• MSRs eliminate need for Yucca Mountain storage by consuming nuclear

waste.

• Thorium fluoride molten fuel for MSRs is of no weapons value.

• Thorium fuel is more abundant and cheaper than uranium.

• MSRs require no expensive containment since they operate close to

atmospheric pressure. Shut down automatically without operator intervention.

• India has large Thorium reserves and little Uranium. It plans to get 30% of its

electrical energy from Thorium by 2050

• China is investing $350 million over five years to develop molten-salt reactors.

It plans to build a two-megawatt test reactor by 2020.

Source Total Investment:

60 Year Project

Annual Before-Tax

Revenue

Market Price to

Break Even at 15

Years

Life Span

before

Retooling

Comparative

ROI at 60 Years

($0.145/KWhr)

Nuclear $17.0 Billion $1.244 Billion $0.12/KWhr 60 years $74.7 Billion

Land-based wind

+ batteries

$44.6 Billion $0.873 Billion $$0.11/KWhr 25 years $52.4 Billion

Solar + Batteries $55.8 Billion $0.208 Billion $0.15/KWhr 25 years $12.5 Billion

• Wind is available about 36% of the time and solar about 26%.

Renewables need to charge batteries to supply electricity 24/7.

• Kaui (Hawaii) is planning to use Tesla grid-level storage batteries and has a

contract for $0.145/KWhr for 20 years. This is a small installation, but it can

be used as a comparison. Telsa also offers grid level batteries for sale at

$2.5 million/MW.

Over 60 years, the standard license period for nuclear

reactors, nuclear provides the largest return on investment

(ROI) (Emery et al)

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk & Panasonic are building a $ 1 - 4 billion battery gigafactory.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/us/princeville-north-carolina-hurricane-matthew-floods-black-

history.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Linda Worsley outside her Princeville, NC home, which was

demolished after being damaged in a flood from Hurricane

Matthew (2016). Her town was also flooded out by Hurricane

Floyd in 1999. These hurricanes used to occur every 100

years. The town may be abandoned.

The deserts in the US Southwest will expand into the central farm belt.

- Farmable land in under-populated Canada will increase.

- This will be similar for Siberia as a billion Chinese Clim-migrants move NorthFarmland in under-populated Siberia will increase.

- Farmland in over-populated China will decrease.

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• Trump used this misinformation of 0.05C by 2030 and 0.2 C by 2100 to

justify the US withdrawal from the Paris accord.

MIT scientists clarified that the “Do Nothing” baseline is the Copenhagen

2009 carbon dioxide reductions. MIT calculates the “Paris promises” would

result in a “significant reduction” of 1 C below present policy.

62The new Paris Accord New Pledges will not meet the 2 C reduction goal, but

the 1 C decrease is a “significant reduction” below current policy.

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Carbon dioxide reduction impact of the Paris Accord Pledges.

Mayor Bloomberg is leading a US consortium of States,

Companies, Cities, and Universities that will meet our pledge.

1750-2005: Even if

the cloud albedo

effect is assumed to

have the maximum

cooling value, there

would still be a net

warming of the

climate due to

human activities.(UN Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change,

IPCC, 2007Report)

Solar Irradiance

increased by only 0.2%

since 1750.

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Absorbed CO2 increases acidity, reduces the calcification rate, dissolves

carbonate sea shells, and nature’s ability to sequester carbon.

INCREASING ACIDIFICATION THREATENS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN

Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements

MELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER

Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet

Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009

Greenland’s largest glacier is now flowing faster towards the sea 4 times faster than in the 1990s..

Since Sandy, 2012, Federal Coastal Flood Insurance is up 2X - 10X

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•Seasonal variations, 6 ppm or 2%, are superposed on the C02 increase.

• Population more than doubled since 1970

3.7 B

7 B

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Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University and an author of the last IPCC report said, “It involves the physics of ice fracture that we really don’t understand. If the ThwaitesGlacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by three meters—nearly ten feet. The odds are in our favor that it won’t put three meters in the ocean in the next century,” says Alley. “But we can’t absolutely guarantee that. There’s at least some chance that something very nasty will happen.”

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The Coming Climate Crash:Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 RecessionBy HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush.JUNE 21, 2014http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html

(See Economic Risks of Climate, June 2014, http://riskybusiness.org)

“We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.

A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure.

Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.”

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