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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Tel: +43 2236 807 588 Fax: +43 2236 71313

E-mail: wiberg@iiasa.ac.at Web: www.iiasa.ac.at

Dr. David A. Wiberg Water Futures and Solutions Initiative

Water Futures and Solutions: World Water Scenarios Initiative (WFaS)

‘Fast Track’ Analysis

Contents

MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE WFAS ‘FAST-TRACK’ ANALYSIS ............................................. 2

1. BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................ 3

WATER AND RISKS TO DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................................. 3 WATER RESOURCE ASSESSMENT STATE OF THE ART ........................................................................... 3 WATER FUTURES AND SOLUTIONS INITIATIVE (WFAS) ........................................................................ 4

WFAS FAST-TRACK ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................ 4

2. THE ‘FAST-TRACK’ PROCESS .................................................................................................... 6

3. TASKS AND ACTIVITIES OF THE ‘FAST-TRACK’ ANALYSIS ........................................... 7

TASK 1: DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK UNDERPINNING SCENARIOS AND SOLUTIONS 7 TASK 2: REVIEW OF DATA AND RECENT QUANTIFIED SCENARIOS; VISUALIZATION OF TRENDS OF

VARIABLES IN THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................... 7

TASK 3: PROJECTIONS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LEVELS AND WATER-RELEVANT SCENARIO VARIABLES

FOR SELECTED SSPS.............................................................................................................................. 7 TASK 4: ESTIMATION OF WATER DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR SELECTED QUANTIFIED SCENARIOS OF

SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND RELATED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LEVELS ..................................... 9 TASK 5: GLOBAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE OF FUTURE WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY ................. 9

TASK 6: ANALYZE 'FAST-TRACK' SCENARIO OUTCOMES FOR LOCATIONS, SECTOR DETAILS AND

MAGNITUDE OF EMERGING FUTURE WATER CHALLENGES ................................................................... 10 TASK 7: ‘FAST-TRACK’ ANALYSIS OF THE WATER-FOOD-ENERGY-ECOSYSTEM NEXUS .................... 10

4. STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION IN THE ‘FAST-TRACK’ ............................................... 11

5. TIME LINE OF ‘FAST-TRACK’ ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 12

6. DELIVERABLES OF THE ‘FAST-TRACK’ ANALYSIS ......................................................... 13

7. BUDGET ........................................................................................................................................... 14

REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 15

APPENDIX 1: PARTICIPATION IN THE WATER FUTURES AND SOLUTIONS

INITIATIVE ......................................................................................................................................... 16

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Project Budget (total) Requested Grant ADC/MAFEW Contribution in Cash by the Applicant

100% 60% 40%

500,000 EUR 300,000 EUR 200,000 EUR

Main Objectives of the WFaS ‘Fast-Track’ Analysis

Make use of available ongoing research to develop a set of (preliminary) quantitative water projections consistent with global scenario processes in other sectors, specifically with the IPCC shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and results of climate model projections for the four IPCC AR5 representa-tive concentration pathways (RCPs).

Provide rapid assessment and quantified scenario outcomes to indicate the geographical dimensions and magnitude of future water challenges and to support the deliberations of the WFaS stakeholder process for water scenario development and the water solutions finding process.

Explore existing water-related methodologies and data used in current integrated assessments, climate impact and development modeling studies to identify enhancements for implementation in the WFaS scenario analysis.

Collect and harmonize statistical data and modeled estimates of water availability and water demand.

Estimate water demand by sectors and identify key trade-offs and options for water-dependent sectors.

Use scenario results to derive indicators measuring the impacts of scenario outcomes on attaining de-velopment goals, including water and food security.

Identify crucial scenario information and assumptions to be discussed and further elaborated with stakeholders. Evaluate results from the first stakeholder meeting of the Scenario Focus Group (4-6 Nov 2013) and use SFG feedback as input to further analysis.

Develop and test the information flow and model linkages of the multi-model water scenario assessment approach as part of the process of building the tools that can be used for integrated decision support.

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1. Background The quest for water security has been a struggle throughout human history. Only in recent years has the scale of this quest moved beyond the local, to the national and regional scales and to the planet itself. Lacking or unrelia-ble water supply, sanitation and irrigation services, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water envi-ronments severely impact half of the planet’s population. Spillovers from these impacts, including supply chain failures, financial shocks, migration and political instability, now ripple across our interconnected world in ways that are not recognised until after the fact. The 2011 Thai floods resulted in a $45bn economic loss, including $15bn in insurance payments. The 2010 Russian drought and associated grain export ban led to a major rise in bread prices in N. Africa, triggering popular rage that is believed to have played a significant role in regime change in early 2011. It is clear that many of the impacts of climate change on society will be transmitted by wa-ter, underscoring the adaption challenge. However, the dynamics and impacts of rapidly changing economies, populations and climate on fresh water fluxes, on which all terrestrial life depends, are poorly understood and largely unknown. Water and Risks to Development It has only recently been recognized that the poorest parts of the world (i.e. Africa and South and Southeast Asia) are deeply water insecure today in part because they face very high rainfall and runoff variability. Overcoming this variability and vulnerability requires major investments in water information, institutions and infrastructure. Wealthy countries have faced much less challenging hydrological conditions, with the few exceptions (such as Australia and the Western USA) having a history of massive inward investment of skill and capital. It has also become clear that ‘northern’ science needs significant refinement for its application to the highly variable and complex hydrological systems of the ‘south’, compounded by limited monitoring and thus data availability. This hydrological complexity adds significantly to the challenge of sustained economic growth in poor countries, re-quiring innovative development paths. These paths must, to the extent possible, avoid the high price of ecosys-tem damage paid by most wealthy countries on their paths to growth. The need for IIASA’s applied systems analysis to address these knowledge gaps and investigate root causes, alternative development paths and future outcomes, is clear. Government policy initiatives in complex conditions need strong underpinning science; with-out it, policy is tantamount to gambling, with potentially serious consequence for human development. Water Resource Assessment State of the Art More than 10 years have passed since the last set of global water scenarios that were developed under the sponsorship of the World Water Council, during preparation of the World Water Vision (Cosgrove and Rijsber-man, 2000). In recent years technology and socio-economic conditions in the world have changed dramatically, both within and outside the water sector, and change continues to accelerate. Many related studies and initiatives have been carried out in the meantime, such as the third and fourth editions of the United Nations World Water Development Report, EU projects such as WATCH (Water and Global Change) and SCENES (Scenarios for Eu-rope and Neighbouring States), the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, UNEP’s Global Environment Outlooks, the Global Energy Assessment, and many others. A key message from these studies is that water is not and cannot be governed or managed solely by a water supply sector. Engagement of decision makers and businesses is needed in various socio-economic sectors which determine the context within which water must be managed. As water use intensifies it becomes ever more important to seek water governance, management and disruptive solutions which are integrated across sectors. Global scenarios that have been and are being developed in other sectors, for example the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reference greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic development pathways (SSPs), UNEP Global Environment Outlook scenarios, and the recent Global Energy Assessment scenarios, provide new links to explore, and new tools have become available to develop more comprehensive and better integrated scenarios reinforced by analysis through models operating at the global, national and sub-national levels. These studies have also emphasized the great uncertainties that require scenario-based investigations of the future, and also require moving beyond single model assessment into multi-model ensemble assessments to factor in the uncertainty within the modeling itself. Analyses of water futures

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must be consistent with the futures being investigated for other sectors (energy, food, etc.) in order to result in coherent and robust policy messages, so that intervention options can be identified that are also consistent, ef-fective and sustainable over the longer term. There is then a need for an initiative that can bring together broad consortiums of science and stakeholders to assemble and harmonize available information across disciplines; to provide consistency of scenarios, analysis, and tools across sectors and scales of management, which can be used to identify and assess the portfolios of options that will also work together consistently, effectively, and sustainably; and finally to provide continuity over time, for maintaining the knowledge networks and updating the tools, databases and analyses as new infor-mation becomes available, which is something fixed-term projects cannot provide. Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS) In order to deal with the growing water challenges, and fill the need for harmonization, consistency and continuity of nexus efforts, in February 2013 IIASA joined forces with UNESCO, the World Water Council, the International Water Association, and the Korean Government creating the Water Futures and Solutions: World Water Scenari-os Initiative (referred to herein as the WFaS Initiative), the secretariat of which would be hosted at IIASA. Includ-ing a strong stakeholder consultation component, the long-term initiative aims to provide a scientific basis for re-sponding to water challenges by:

collecting and advancing state of the art knowledge, data and integrated assessment and modelling tools,

identifying intervention options in various sectors and at various scales, and

building the tools to assess combinations of these options that can be effective and robust across a set of alternative integrated scenarios of future water availability and use, scenarios which will be created by WFaS to be consistent with scenario processes across the sectors and scales.

The aspired results are the scientific information and tools needed assess robust water management options, serving the strategic planning of businesses, governments, NGOs and other stakeholders. To ensure broad-based knowledge and consistency of assessment and application, the Initiative brings together global networks, consortiums of researchers and decision makers from governmental, non-governmental organi-zations and private industry from a variety of sectors influencing water management. It builds upon these collabo-rations and partnerships between top academia, governmental and UN agencies, water-related industries, the fi-nancial sector and non-governmental organizations in order to accomplish its ultimate goal of improving liveli-hoods through enhanced water security. WFaS Fast-Track Analysis A key component of the larger Initiative, the WFaS Fast-Track Analysis is a 1.5 year project that uses the collab-orations and partnerships of WFaS to develop a first set of consistent, multi-model integrated scenarios across the water-food-energy-ecosystem-climate nexus, with guidance from the WFaS stakeholder process. It will com-pile estimates of the future availability of water resources (in space and time) and changes in water demand across sectors under various scenarios of climate change as projected, for example, for different RCPs of the IPCC AR5 and by several climate models, and selected shared socio-economic development pathways (SSPs). It will enhance current scientific understanding of global water challenges, including major uncertainties, using qualitative descriptions, quantitative projections and comparisons, and expert opinion and analysis of available information. It is worth noting that multiple models will be employed throughout the assessment process, to pro-ject sector activity levels, in particular of the agriculture and energy sectors, to estimate the water resources availability using hydrological models, and to quantify the water demand as estimated by different models in re-sponse to demographic and economic development. The analysis will also estimate water resources variability in different scenarios and associated risks to human and ecosystem water security. Major outputs from the Initiative will be released to correspond with the timing of the upcoming World Water Fo-rums. At the seventh World Water Forum in Korea in 2015, a report will be presented analyzing a first set of wa-ter futures scenarios, what limitations and trade-offs they may impose on future plans in the water-dependent sectors, and the emerging risks to water, energy, and food security.

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2. The ‘Fast-Track’ process The global water scenarios modelling framework employed in the WFaS Initiative makes use of a multi-model ensemble of both climate scenarios (based on IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that were produced as part of IPCC AR5 (van Vuuren et al., 2011; Arnell et al., 2010; Moss et al., 2010; O’Neill et al., 2012). These climate and socio-economic pathways are being analyzed in a coordinated multi-model assessment process involving sector and integrated assessment models, water demand models and different global hydrological models. Integration and synthesis of results will produce a first set of quantified global water scenarios that include consistency in climate, socio-economic developments (e.g. population dynamics, economic development, land use changes) and water resources. The process of model-based scenario quantification in the ‘Fast-Track’ analysis is shown in Figure 1.

Within the ‘fast-track’ mode the global water scenarios assessment will produce preliminary scenario estimates of the water balance around the world and its relationships with water, energy, and food security, human well-being and economic development. An early stakeholder meeting was held in November 2013, which indicated several key concerns and priorities for the stakeholders. The stakeholder feedbacks are important inputs and will help to steer and better focus the WFaS analysis. While the stakeholders will profoundly shape the scenario process and selection of solution options in WFaS, the scenario assumptions and quantitative inputs needed to simulate dif-ferent socio-economic development pathways will be also derived from the ongoing Integrated Assessment Mod-eling (IAM) community efforts. Stakeholder feedback, in combination with expert opinions from within the extend-ed WFaS Project Group, will be used to add specific water dimensions to the existing scenario pathways in which water had previously not been considered.

Figure 1: Multi-model assessment framework applied in the global ‘Fast-Track’ water analysis

‘Fast-track’ Water Scenarios

Land use change scenarios

T

e

c

h

n

o

l

o

g

y

- Agriculture - Energy and industry- Domestic

- Ecosystems

Water Management

Land use (cultivated, forest, pastures, built-up)

Food, fiber, energy, industrial demand, supply and trade

SSPs –Shared

Socioeconomic

Pathways

GDP, Population, Urbanization

Socio-economic development

RCPs –Representative Concentration

Pathways

Climate change

Climate scenarios: bias corrected CMIP5 output

ClimateModels

IAM community

effort:

Development of

socio-economic

scenarios

SPA

IAM community

effort; sector

experts: Simple

scenario

assumptions

Global water

demand modelsGlobal water

resources models

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3. Tasks and Activities of the ‘Fast-Track’ Analysis This section provides a brief description of the main modelling activities that will be undertaken in the WFaS ‘Fast-Track’ analysis, mainly during the remainder of 2014 and leading into 2015. Task 1: Development of a conceptual framework underpinning scenarios and solutions The Conceptual Framework is a representation of the global freshwater system and relationships with relevant dimensions of society, economy, nature and human well-being, e.g. the relationships among climatic variability and changes, demographic changes, food security, access to water, sanitation and energy, and economic growth. Although not fully developed within the ‘Fast-Track’, the conceptual framework also includes the solutions to address major water-related future challenges and risks. The conceptual framework consists of systems di-mensions and linkages between them. Overall system performance is represented by critical dimensions that are used to evaluate outcomes of scenarios and the effectiveness of solution options. Human well-being, human wa-ter security, and freshwater ecosystem health are three central criteria to assess the desirability of the scenarios and benefits of proposed solutions. Task 2: Review of data and recent quantified scenarios; visualization of trends of variables in the con-ceptual framework The ‘Fast-Track’ analysis will compile statistical information and available outputs from simulation models to pop-ulate the critical dimensions of the conceptual framework with time series data of the period 1985 to 2010 to show for different regions and river basins the recent historical trends in the dynamics of human and freshwater systems. The available data helps determine which indicators can be used and developed. The data behind many of the indicators applied for the Millennium Development Goals (poverty, educational attainment, gender equality, food consumption, access to water and sanitation, etc.), for example, are among those that can be em-ployed. Possible indicators being discussed for use by the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals will also be investigated to determine those that can be applied with available information. The empirical quantified infor-mation will be analyzed to identify the indicators where enough information on trends is available to help build scenario assumptions and projections. Indicators and trends forms the basis of discussions with the stakeholder groups to inform their deliberations of water scenario elements. This trend information forms not only the basis for scenario quantification, but also for the analysis of how water, food, energy, ecosystem, and climate are linked and how trade-offs and synergies among them can be assessed for the overall impact on development, human and ecosystem well-being. Task 3: Projections of economic activity levels and water-relevant scenario variables for selected SSPs This set of ‘Fast-Track’ activities serves the quantification of socio-economic development pathways, providing numerical projections of economic sector activity levels, as an intermediate step for the quantification of water demand and for hydrological water resources modeling. For this purpose, several agriculture and energy sector models, integrated assessment models, bio-geographic system models, biophysical process models, and climate change impact models available at WFaS partner institutions will be used, where possible driven with a harmo-nized set of assumptions and input data, based on indicators and trends developed in Task 2. As an important common input, some already quantified projections of variables by country and for different SSPs are available from related SSP community efforts and comprise of time-series projections of population by age, sex and edu-cation; rural and urban population shares; per capita GDP growth.

Table 1: Models used in the ‘Fast-Track’ scenario analysis for the quantification of economic activity levels affecting future water demands and water resources availability

Models/Methodology Institution Theme/Variables

Global Agro-ecological Zoning model (GAEZ)

IIASA; Günther Fischer Agricultural land productivity, crop suitability, rain-fed and irrigated crop yields, irrigation water re-quirements; global 5 arc-minute gridded data for historical and future climate.

World Food System (WFS) model IIASA; Günther Fischer Time-series of agriculture production by commod-ity groups, cultivated land use, harvested areas, fertilizer use, livestock numbers, food and feed

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Models/Methodology Institution Theme/Variables

consumption, agricultural trade, food security in-dicators; by country/region.

IMPACT IFPRI; Claudia Ringler Time-series of agriculture production by commod-ity groups, rain-fed and irrigated land use, har-vested areas by crop/group, livestock production, consumption and trade of agricultural products; by sub-national spatial units (320 FPUs).

EPIC IIASA; Marijn van der Velde Crop yields, crop water requirements, crop nutri-ents/fertilizer use.

GLOBIOM IIASA; Peter Havlik Time-series of land use by broad classes, animal numbers by livestock systems, production by ma-jor crop groups and livestock categories, food consumption, and agricultural inputs used.

Multi-region multi-sector input-output model (MRIO)

University of Maryland; Laixiang Sun and Klaus Hubacek

Economic structure by sectors, sector-wise pro-duction, intermediate and final consumption by sector, trade flows, embedded GHG emissions, embedded water for selected past and future time points. (to be confirmed)

AIM (to be confirmed) NIES; Mikiko Kainuma Integrated assessment model covering land use, aggregate economic activities, energy production and demand, greenhouse gas emissions, water resources.

IMAGE PBL; Detlef van Vuuren Integrated assessment model covering land use, aggregate economic activities, agriculture produc-tion, energy production and demand, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity losses.

MESSAGE IIASA; Keywan Riahi Integrated assessment model of energy final use by sector, portfolio of primary energy sources, energy conversion technologies, greenhouse gas emissions, energy access/security.

Outputs being generated in the ‘Fast-Track’ analysis relate to: food consumption and food diets; crop and live-stock production; rain-fed cultivated and irrigated land; land use by broad classes; economic structure by broad sectors; energy final demand by broad sectors; portfolio of primary energy sources used; greenhouse gas emis-sions; international trade of agricultural products and energy; land and water resources embedded in trade flows. Table 1 presents the models to be used in the ‘Fast-Track’ quantification of water-relevant economic activity lev-els and it indicates the scenario themes/variables covered by each model. ‘Fast-Track’ modeling will use combinations of input data compiled from different IPCC representative concentra-tion pathways (RCPs) and selected shared socio-economic pathways (based on SSP quantifications). While economic and energy system modeling is mostly done by country or region, downscaling will be applied to repre-sent the derived water-relevant economic variables on a global spatial grid of 0.5 degree latitude/longitude which is used for global water modeling. A particular sub-task here is the compilation of additional information and specification of scenario assumptions needed to produce spatially detailed projections of future irrigated areas, irrigation system efficiencies and result-ing irrigation water demand. For this purpose, available spatial land resources and land use information will be combined with available spatial water resources data to classify and rank land according to its agronomic and hydro-economic potential for irrigated cultivation, and to compile future water resources estimates that can be used in sector and integrated assessment models to constrain, for instance, future irrigated land uses to be con-sistent with water availability, land characteristics and water use in other sectors.

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Task 4: Estimation of water demand by sector for selected quantified scenarios of socio-economic de-velopment and related economic activity levels This set of activities will provide estimates of water demand under selected future scenarios combining climate change projections (by RCP), socio-economic development pathways (based on SSP framework) and the eco-nomic activity levels associated with these development pathways. The ‘Fast-Track’ activities will take as starting point the available water demand models and data (see Table 2) and will critically review their quantification methodologies (later to be refined with inputs and guidance from stakeholder/expert panels).

Table 2: Models available for ‘Fast-Track’ quantification of water demand by sector

Models/Methodology Institution Theme/Variables

WaterGAP Kassel University (Germany), Frankfurt Uni-versity (Germany); WaterMIP, ISI-MIP

Water demand in agriculture (irrigated crops, live-stock), energy production, manufacturing, and do-mestic use.

H08 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES, Japan) ; WaterMIP, ISI-MIP

Water demand in agriculture, industry, domestic use, and for ecosystems (environmental flows).

PCR-GLOBWB Utrecht University (The Netherlands); ISI-MIP

Water demand in agriculture, industry (including en-ergy), domestic use.

LPJmL Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Re-search (PIK; Germany) and Wageningen University (The Netherlands)

Water allocation for food production

IMPACT IFPRI (USA) IMPACT hydrological and water demand model (irri-gation, livestock, 3 industry sectors, domestic use); crop water requirements; available irrigation.

WFS/GAEZ IIASA WAT (Austria) Water requirements of irrigated crop production and livestock

VIC-RBM Wageningen University (The Netherlands), University of Washington (USA)

Water for electricity production (thermoelectric and hydropower)

Two water demand related sub-tasks were identified for the ‘Fast-Track’ analysis to enhance methodologies of existing studies during the first assessment round in 2014: (i) improving the methods and data for estimating in-dustrial and domestic water demand and associated technological changes; and (ii) downscaling of water-related energy outcomes (e.g. hydropower electricity production, thermo-electric cooling), starting from aggregate na-tional/regional results produced by Integrated Assessment Models, to a spatial 0.5° grid for water demand esti-mation. The water demand will be quantified separately for broad sectors, i.e. agriculture, domestic use, energy, industry, and will also account for water required for natural ecosystems. Estimates of water demand by sector and loca-tion are important for understanding the current use of water and competition for the resource both at the present time and under future scenarios of development. They are needed for water valuations and for discussions with stakeholders of value systems, institutions, and allocation priorities in different contexts and cultures. Task 5: Global multi-model ensemble of future water resources availability The overall aim of this activity in the ‘Fast-Track’ analysis is to provide a rapid and robust spatial quantitative as-sessment of future water resources availability based on a multi-model framework using several available hydro-logical models to produce multi-model ensembles of water resources scenarios and estimates of associated model uncertainties. The ‘Fast-Track’ water resources modeling is based on a common set of harmonized input data of climate (Weedon et al., 2011; Taylor et al., 2011) and land use drivers. The use of multiple models is necessary to account for uncertainties in climate, water availability and water demand, and to generate robust fu-ture scenarios of water resources (Chen et al., 2011; Haddeland et al., 2011). For example, projected changes in levels and spatial patterns of rainfall under global warming vary significantly between different climate models. Uncertainties also exist in the responses of different hydrological models to changes in future climate due to un-certainties in the structure and parameterization of global hydrological models. A list of models and modelling teams that are involved in the ‘Fast-Track’ global multi-model water resources assessment is presented in Ta-ble 3.

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Table 3: Models participating in the ‘Fast-Track’ multi-model assessment of water resources

Models Institution Theme/Variables

WaterGAP Kassel University (Germany), Frankfurt Uni-versity (Germany); WaterMIP, ISI-MIP

Water availability; Reservoir impacts; Water de-mands by aggregate sector; Water quality (water temperature, and other parameters)

H08 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES, Japan) ; WaterMIP, ISI-MIP

Water availability; Reservoir impacts; Water de-mands by aggregate sector; Environmental flows

PCR-GLOBWB Utrecht University (The Netherlands); ISI-MIP

Water availability; Reservoir impacts; Water de-mands by sector (surface water and groundwater); Water quality (water temperature)

LPJmL Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Re-search (Germany) and Wageningen Univer-sity (The Netherlands); WateMIP, ISI-MIP

Water availability; Reservoir impacts; Irrigation wa-ter use and agricultural production; Environmental flows (in preparation) and dynamic vegetation

VIC Wageningen University (The Netherlands), Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (Norway); WaterMIP, ISI-MIP University of Washington/Princeton Univer-sity (USA)

Water availability; Reservoir impacts; Irrigation wa-ter use; Water use energy (thermoelectric power); Water quality (water temperature)

WBM CUNY (USA); ISI-MIP Water availability; Reservoir impacts; Irrigation wa-ter use; Water quality (water temperature and other parameters (static))

As a key output, this ‘Fast-Track’ multi-model assessment will compile estimates of the future availability (and se-lected indicators of water quality; details to be determined) of water resources (in space and time) under various scenarios of climate change (by RCP and climate model) and selected shared socio-economic development pathways (based on the SSP framework). The analysis will also estimate water resources variability in different scenarios and associated risks to water security. Task 6: Analyze 'Fast-Track' scenario outcomes for locations, sector details and magnitude of emerging future water challenges This activity will integrate and analyze the results of scenario quantifications obtained with sector and Integrated Assessment Models, water demand and hydrological models in order to provide a rapid assessment of possible water-related development constraints and their impacts on food, water and energy dimensions of human well-being and to indicate the possible locations and magnitude of future water challenges. Indicators of the critical water dimensions (see Task 1) will be used to flag hotspots including both the bio-physical (climate, land) and socio-economic (population, poverty, education, gender, access to energy, water and sanitation, food production and consumption, etc.) aspects of water security and human well-being. This data will inform the ex-pert/stakeholder process for developing refined water scenarios and uncovering water solutions. The quantified indicators of water security and human well-being will be used in the greater WFaS Initiative to evaluate and rank scenario outcomes and the effectiveness of proposed solution measures. Task 7: ‘Fast-Track’ analysis of the Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem nexus Land, energy and water are our most precious resources, but the manner and extent to which they are exploited is contributing to climate change. At the same time the systems that provide these resources are themselves highly vulnerable to changes in climate.

These resources are also an integral part of the development challenge (under-nourishment, physical and eco-nomic water shortages, energy access). If development is to take place in a broad, equitable, sound and sustain-able manner, clever policy and large investments are needed, in order to ensure safe, reliable and affordable ac-cess to these essential resources (Howells et al., 2013).

This activity will focus, by region/basin and for different scenarios, on a ’Fast-Track’ quantification of future devel-opments around the so-called “water-food-energy-ecosystem nexus”, which refers to the complex linkages among water availability, food provision, energy provision, and ecosystem health. Of particular interest to the WFaS Initiative is the question as to limitations of the water systems in different scenarios may affect key indica-

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tors of human well-being, such as those used and proposed, for example, by the MDGs, the upcoming SDGs, and other sources. This task aims for an improved understanding of the linkages across the nexus in order to en-hance the assessment of water management options across sectors and scales, in ways that account for the necessary trade-offs and exploit possible synergies.

4. Stakeholder participation in the ‘Fast-Track’

The ‘Fast-Track’ analysis is designed to collect the data and information, and develop the tools, necessary for more in-depth stakeholder consultations and dialog in later phases of the WFaS Initiative. The ‘Fast-Track’ itself, therefore, does not include numerous stakeholder consultation meetings. However, stakeholder consultations have been the driving force behind the ‘Fast-Track’ analysis. Several stakeholder consultations were organized in 2013 to elicit stakeholder priorities and feedback and to steer the WFaS analysis, starting with the launch meet-ing itself, which included 80 participants from government, non-governmental organizations, private industry, and academia. WFaS was then presented and feedback was elicited at many international forums, and an official meeting of the Scenario Focus Group (SFG), made up of primarily water planners and managers at national and international river-basin scales, took place in Paris at the end of 2013. Feedback from these consultations is helping to guide the ‘Fast-Track’ Analysis. In fact, feedback from the first SFG meeting indicated that a robust ‘Fast-Track’ analysis was needed in order to provide the solid scientific basis for assessing tradeoffs and syner-gies across development strategies. SFG members will continue to provide feedback during the ‘Fast-Track’ and one additional SFG meeting is planned within the ‘Fast-Track’ time period. Feedback will also be obtained at in-ternational forums in 2014. Three workshops, for example, are planned in collaboration with Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) and Cap-Net as part of Stockholm World Water Week.

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5. Time line of ‘Fast-Track’ analysis

Table 4: ‘Fast-Track’ timeline

Stockholm World Water Week Korea Water Forum

Aug31-5Sept 2014 12-17 April 2015

FEB14 MAR14 APR14 MAY14 JUN14 JUL14 AUG14 SEP14 OCT14 NOV14 DEC14 JAN15 FEB15 MAR15 APR15

Development Scenario Quantification

Task 1: Development of a conceptual framework underpinning

scenarios and solutions

1a)Development and revision of the conceptual framework D1.1

Task 2: Review of data and recent quantified scenarios for

visualization of trends of variables in the conceptual framework

2a) Process WATCH and ISI-MIP data for critical review of results and

application for WFaS analysisD2.1

Task 3: Projections of economic activity levels and water-relevant

scenario variables for selected SSPs

3a)Compile indicators of water security and hydro-economic

classification of water challenges by country and major river basinsD3.2a D3.2b

3b) Derivation of land-use and irrigation scenarios for selected SSP/RCP

combinations. D3.3

3c) Project water-relevant scenario variables for selected SSPs D3.1

Water Analysis

Task 4: Estimation of water demand by sector for selected

quantified scenarios of socio-economic development and related

economic activity levels

4a) Critical review of assumptions and methods used to quantify

projections of water demands and availability within different biophysical,

socio-economic and governance contexts

D4.1

4b) Estimation of water demand by sector for selected scenarios of

future socio-economic developmentD4.2

Task 5: Global multi-model ensemble of future water resources

availability

5a) Critical review of assumptions and methods used to quantify

projections of water availability within different biophysical, socio-

economic and governance contexts

D5.1

5b) Compilation of global multi-model ensemble of future water resources

availability

Synthesis of WFaS Results and Dissemination

Task 6: Analyze 'fast-track' scenario outcomes for locations, sector

details and magnitude of emerging future water challenges

6a) Synthesis of 'fast-track' scenario outcomes for geographic hotspots,

sector details and magnitude of future water challenges.D6.1

6b) Synthesis of emerging water challenges in Africa and Asia D6.2

Task 7: ‘Fast-track’ analysis of the Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem

nexus

7a) ‘Fast-track’ analysis of the Climate-Water-Food-Energy nexus

Estimated ressource needs: 5PMs D7.1

Task 8: Coordination and Dissemination

8a) Presentation of WFaS at Stockholm WWW 2014 D8.1

8b) Presentation of WFaS fast track results at Korea Wqater Forum D8.2

Water Futures and Solutions 'fast-track' analysis

JAN14

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6. Deliverables of the ‘Fast-Track’ analysis D1.1. Conceptual Framework used to depict the dynamics of the global freshwater system and linkages to socie-ty, economy, nature and human well-being. D2.1. Spatial (gridded) datasets and tabulations of ISI-MIP data. D3.1. Database of outputs from sector models (agriculture, energy) and integrated assessment models from sce-nario analyses of shared socio-economic development pathways. D3.2. Report on indicators of water security and hydro-economic classification of water challenges by country and major river basins. D3.3. Spatial, gridded datasets of land use and irrigated land as input to water demand models. D4.1. Summary report of assumptions and methods used to project of water demands under different biophysi-cal, socio-economic and governance contexts. D4.2. Compilation of spatial datasets (grids) of multi-model ensemble outputs of water demand models for se-lected combinations of SSPs and RCPs D5.1. Summary report on assumptions and methods used to project of water availability under different biophysi-cal, socio-economic and governance contexts. D5.2. Spatial datasets (grids) of multi-model ensemble outputs of hydrological models from model inter-comparison experiments using common weather forcing data based on historical weather observations and fu-ture climate under selected combinations of SSPs and RCPs D6.1. Synthesis report of multi-model outputs from sector and integrated assessment models, water demand and hydrological models indicating for different scenarios the geographical hotspots and magnitude of future water challenges D6.2. Special report highlighting emerging water challenges in Africa and Asia based on WFaS analysis D7.1. Quantification of and report on the critical linkages and future challenges regarding the climate-water-food-energy nexus D8.1. Presentation of WFaS at the Stockholm WWW 2014. D8.2. Presentation and report of WFaS Fast-Track scenarios, analysis, and conclusions on the strengths, limita-tions, and opportunities for state of the art integrated, global science in assessing water management decisions for the 2015 Korea Water Forum.

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7. Budget The expected funding for the Water Futures and Solutions Fast-Track Analysis amounts to a sum of 500,000 Eu-ro and comes from IIASA itself, the ADC and the MAFEW, in the following composition: IIASA 200,000 ADC/MAFEW 300,000 The funding agreement shall be arranged between the ADA and the IIASA. A breakdown of the budget by task is shown in Table 5:

Table 5: ‘Fast-Track’ budget

BUDGET DISTRIBUTION

1. Personnel

Position Person-Month Unit Costs Costs IIASA ADA

Program Director 1 € 9,000 € 9,000 100% 0%

Program Administration 13 € 3,846 € 50,000 100% 0%

Scientific Personnel 61 € 6,230 € 380,000 29% 71%

Subtotal Personnel € 439,000 38% 62%

2. Other expenses

2.a. Travel

Activity Description Costs IIASA ADA

Dissemination meetings World Water Week in Stockholm; Water Forum in Korea; Project Group Meetings; Stakeholder Meeting 2014/2015 € 52,000 43% 57%

Other Travel Coordination with project part-ners € 5,000 100% 0%

Subtotal Travel € 57,000 48% 52%

2.b. Other costs

Activity Description Costs IIASA ADA

Project Information Mate-rial Documentation and publication

material (design, print) € 1,000 50% 50%

Other project resources needed Temporary data storage € 3,000 100% 0%

Subtotal other costs € 4,000 88% 13%

Total € 500,000 40% 60%

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References Arnell N, Kram T, Carter T, Ebi K, Edmonds J, Hallegatte S, Kriegler E, Mathur R, O'Neill B.C, Riahi K, Winkler H, van Vuuren D, Zwickel T (2011). A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, ad-aptation, vulnerability and mitigation research. Available at http://www.isp.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/Scenario_FrameworkPaper_15aug11_0.pdf.

Chen C, Hagemann S, Clark D, Folwell S, Gosling S, Haddeland I, Hanasaki N, Heinke J, Ludwig F, Voβ F, Wiltshire A (2011). Projected hydrological changes in the 21st century and related uncertainties obtained from a multi-model ensemble. WATCH Technical Report No. 45, p. 28.

Haddeland I, Clark D.B, Franssen W, Ludwig F, Voß F, Arnell N.W, Bertrand N, Best M, Folwell S, Gerten D, Gomes S, Gosling S.N, Hagemann S, Hanasaki N, Harding R, Heinke J, Kabat P, Koirala S, Oki T, Polcher J, Stacke T, Viterbo P, Weedon G.P, Yeh P (2011). Multimodel Estimate of the Terrestrial Global Water Balance: Setup and First Results. J. Hy-drometeor. 12:869–884.

Howells M, Hermann S, Welsch M, Bazilian M, Segerström R, Alfstad T, Gielen D, Rogner H, Fischer G, van Velthuizen H, Wiberg D, Young C, Roehrl RA, Mueller A, Steduto P, Ramma I (2013). Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies. Nature Climate Change 3, 621-626 (Pulished online 25 June 2013).

Moss R.H, Edmonds J.A, Hibbard K.A, Manning M.R, Rose S.K, van Vuuren D.P, Timothy R, Carter T.R, Emori S, Kai-numa M, Kram T, Meehl G.A, Mitchell J.F.B, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith S.J, Stouffer R.J, Thomson A.M, Weyant J.P, Wilbanks T.W (2010). The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747-756.

O’Neill B.C, Carter T.R, Ebi K.L, Edmonds J, Hallegatte S, Kemp-Benedict E, Kriegler E, Mearns L, Moss R, Riahi K, van Ruijven B, van Vuuren D (2012). Meeting Report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Path-ways for Climate Change Research, Boulder, CO, November 2-4, 2011. Available at: http://www.isp.ucar.edu/socio-economic-pathways.

Taylor K.E, Stouffer R.J, Meehl G.A (2011). An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2011.

van Vuuren D.P, Edmonds J.A, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Weyant J (2011). A special issue on the RCPs. Climatic Change 109, 1-4, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0157-y.

Weedon GP, Gomes S, Viterbo P, Shuttleworth WJ, Blyth E, Österle H, Adam JC, Bellouin N, Boucher O, Best M (2011). Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century. J. Hydrometeor. 12:823–848.

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Appendix 1: Participation in the Water Futures and Solutions Initiative

The Water Futures and Solutions Initiative is intended to be continuous over time, first developing and harmonizing the ini-tial approaches, databases, scenarios, and tools, and then continuously adapting to new information and developments and to the changing needs of stakeholders, partners, and networks to assess priority management options across the climate, water, energy, food, environment nexus. The various groups involved in Water Futures and Solutions are depicted in Figure 1. The Fast-Track Analysis focuses on the Project Group, which is the science consortium, and the Scenario Focus Group (SFG), which is a stakeholder group primarily consisting of planners at the national and international river basin scale. The SFG provides initial input concerning priority areas of investigation, the development of the WFaS scenarios and indicators, and helps to ensure the relevance and usefulness of the results. In the Fast-Track, the project group employs suggestions from the SFG to refine the conceptual framework and approach. Later in the WFaS process, the Sector Actors Group will help to refine the analysis with further sector detail, and a special WaterFutures4theWorld program with private companies will pilot technologies proposed as solutions which will in turn be assessed for consistency and scalability by the project group.

Figure 1: Multi-model assessment framework applied in the global ‘Fast-Track’ water analysis

Organizations that have so far been involved in WFaS are listed here:

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT); Republic of Korea, International Water Association (IWA); World Water Council (WWC); Academy of Sci-ences Malaysia (ASM); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Austrian Development Agency (ADA); Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Egypt; Center for Environ-mental Systems Research (CESR); University of Kassel, Germany; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia; Government of Hungary Gujarat Institute of Development Research (GIDR), India; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Germany; In-stitute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA), India; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural; Resources Research (CAS), China; Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), China; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); International Water Management Institute (IWMI); Joint Research Centre (JRC) – European Commission; Korean National Committee, 7th World Water Forum; KWR Watercycle Research Insti-tute, Netherlands; The Millennium Project; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan; National In-stitute of Hydrology (NIH), India; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), United King-

dom; Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE); Organization for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD); University of

Oxford, United Kingdom; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; South African Water Research Commission (WRC); The City University of New York (CUNY), USA; Utrecht University, Netherlands; Wageningen University, Netherlands; Walker Institute for Climate System Re-search, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, United Kingdom; Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan; International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), AUSTRIA; African Development Bank Group (AfDB), Tunisia; Swiss NEWATER / SymbioSwiss, Switzerland; The World Bank,

Governing Board (GB)

WaterFutures4the World

Solutions Programme

Sector Actors Group Public and private sec-

tor perspectives Chairs to sit in GB

Project Group

Project Proposal

Implement Plans

Scenarios

Modeling

Analysis

Writing

Secretariat

Pro

ject Directo

r

External experts

Scenario Focus Group Stakeholders to enrich

or change scenarios. Chairs to sit in GB

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US; Suez Environment, France; World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Switzerland, US, India; Ministerio del Ambiente y Re-cursos Naturales (MARENA), Nicaragua; Veolia Water, France; OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID), Austria; Food and Agriculture Or-ganisation of the UN (FAO), Italy; Croatian Waters, Croatia; Water Agency of the Autonomous Basque Community, Spain; Ministry for the Environ-ment, Nature Conversation and Nuclear Safety, Germany; Center for Water Resources Research of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CHINA; Interna-tional Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Switzerland; AquaFed, France; World Energy Council, United Kingdom; KWR Watercycle Research Institute, The Netherlands; Institute for the Study of Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISS RAS), Russia; Zambezi Watercourse Commis-sion (ZAMCOM), Zambia; National Planning Commission, India; Arab Water Council, Egypt; University of Witwatersrand, South Africa; Canadian Inter-national Development Agency (CIDA), Canada; WRI World Resources Institute, US; WWF International, Switzerland; Agricultural Development and Ir-rigation Deptartment, Government of Morocco; The Climate group, China; Asia Pacific Water Forum; White House Office for Science and Technology Policy, US; DG, Irrigation Department, Sri Lanka; International Commission on Irrigation Drainage, China; National Centre for Efficient Irrigation Tech-nology Research, China; Government California; Circle Venture Capital, South Africa; International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) Syria; International Drylands Development Commission (IDDC); International Center for Advanced Mediteranean Agronomic Studies (CI-HEAM), Algeria; Japan Science Council, Japan; United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP); Urban Con-struction, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, China; NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US; Ministry of For-eign Affairs, Hungary; Ministry of Rural Development, Hungary; Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTM), Korea; Ministry of Foreign Af-fairs, Austria; Ministry of Agriculture, Croatia; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Italy; Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda; Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Korea; Ministry of Agriculture, Czech Republic; Ministry of Economy, Family and Youth, Austria; Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environ-ment and Water Management, Austria

Although not a complete list of participants, to indicate the range of participation in the ‘Fast-Track,’ a sample is listed in Table 6, while the institutions primarily involved in the ‘Fast-Track’ scientific assessment were listed in tables 1-3.

Name Experience

Scenario Focus Group

Nadezhda GAPONENKO Head of Department, Institute for the Study of Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Michael MUTALE Executive Director ZAMCOM

World Bank Water Resources Management specialist

Establishment of the Africa Water Forum

Regional Advisor engaged by GTZ

Technical support to the SADC Water Division to address World Commission on Dams (WCD)

Mihir SHAH Planning Commissioner in National Planning Commission, India

Policy advocacy

Social Entrepreneur (Award of ICRISAT).

Mohammed Ait KADI President of the General Council of Agricultural Development

Chief agricultural negotiator in the free trade agreement between Morocco and the United States

Honorary vice-president of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID)

Vice-president of the Moroccan National Committee (ANAFIDE)

Member of the CGIAR Consortium Board and the Board of Advisors of the World Agricultural Forum.

Ashfaq MAHMOOD Secretary Water & Power, Pakistan

IT & Telecom Planning and Development Division

Kashmir Affairs, Northern Areas States and Frontier Regions, Youth Affairs, Science and Technology and Sports.

Special Secretary Ministry of Finance

Senior Chief Energy Wing Planning Commission

Carol COUCH Director, Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Or-

ganisation, Australia national science agency (CSIRO)

Jerson KELMAN President of Light, the private Power Company of Rio de Janeiro (4 million consumers).

Memberships: Brazilian Sustainable Development Foundation (FBDS); ABENGOA International Advi-sory Board, Brazilian Councils of Energy (CNPE), Environment (CONAMA) and Water Resources (CNRH).

Rio authority on rivers and lakes (SERLA); World Bank; Brazilian Water Authority (ANA)

Katharine L. JACOBS White House Office Science and Technology Policy

Margaret Catley CARLSON Former Deputy Minister of Health, Canada

President of Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)

Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Advisory Council on Water

Foresight Advisory Committee for Group Suez Environment.

Memberships: Crop Diversity Trust, UN Secretary General’s Advisory Board, Rosenberg Forum, boards of the IFDC (Fertilizer Management) and the International Institute for Environment and De-velopment.

Andrew STEER Head of World Resources Institute (WRI)

International development and policy advocacy in Asia and Africa

Led the World Bank's engagement on international climate negotiations.

Member of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's High Level Panel on Sustainable Energy for All and on the B20 Board on Green Growth.

Peter GLEICK Advisor to Government California

Co-founded and leads the Pacific Institute in Oakland

Maphela RAMPHELE Chair, Circle Venture Capital

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Name Experience

Co-Chair on the Global Commission for International Migration (GCIM).

Adel ELBELTAGY Head IDDC and CEAHAM, former head International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)

Chairman of the International Drylands Development Commission (IDDC)

President of the Governing Board of the International Center for Advanced Mediteranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM)

Chair of the Food and Agricultural Research Council (Egyptian Academy of Science).

Quamrul CHOWDHURY Bangladesh's climate envoy to the UN

Least Developed Country Lead Negotiator on Adaptation

Project Group

Dieter GERTEN Head of Research Field Planetary Opportunities and Planetary Boundaries (OPEN), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Luis GOMEZ-ECHEVERRI

Senior Advisor to the Executive Office of the UN Secretary General on the Sustainable Energy for All

Associate Director of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA)

Claudia RINGLER Deputy Division Director, Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Vladimir SMAKHTIN Theme Leader on Water Availability and Access, International Water Management Institute (IWMI) - CIGAR

Eiman KARAR Executive Manager for the Water Resources Department of WRC, Water Research Commission

Piotr MAGNUSZEWSKI Co-founder and managing director of the Centre for Systems Solutions (ISIS Academy)

Laixiang SUN Visiting research professor at the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research

(IGSNRR) and China Center for Agricultural Policy (CCAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences Senior research fellow at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, China

Keywan RIAHI Energy Program, IIASA, Program Director

Rao NARASIMHA Energy Program, IIASA

Oliver FRICKO Energy Program, IIASA

Reinhard MECHLER Risk, Policy and Vulnerability program, IIASA, Deputy Director

Vegard SKIRBEKK World Population Program, IIASA

Samir K.C. World Population Program, IIASA

Michael OBERSTEINER Ecosystem Services and Management Program, IIASA, Program Director

Petr HAVLIK Ecosystem Services and Management Program, IIASA

Others Providing Input

Pradeep AGGARWAL, Head of the Isotope Hydrology Section, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Peter AKARI Chief Water Policy Officer, African Development Bank Group (AfDB)

Arnaud BÉGLÉ Director, Swiss NEWATER / SymbioSwiss

Private equity, deal sourcing, financial, technical due diligence, valuation.

SymbioSwiss’ Club of Entrepreneurs

Certified International Investment Analyst.

Joppe CRAMWINCKEL Director Water Project, World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD)

Sustainable Development Lead for Shell International Exploration and Production B.V.

Luis FIALLOS Economic Advisor to the Minister, Ministerio del Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARENA)

Asesor de la Dirección Superior EUROCLIMA

Gerhard GLATZEL Kommission für Interdisziplinäre Ökologische Studien (KIÖS), Austrian Academy of Science

Austrian Representative at ETFRN (European Tropical Forest Reseach Network)

German science council of Agricultural research

Environmental Concerns

Developing scientific partnerships with Africa and Asia and Masters „Mountain Forestry“ at the BOKU.

Faris HASAN Director, Corporate Planning and Economic Services Unit Head of Research, OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID)

Peter KOVACS State Secretary for Water

Ministry of Rural Development, Hungary

Gil-Hong KIM Director, Sustainable Infrastructure Division, Regional and Sustainable Development Department, Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Asia Clean Energy Forum.

Country Economist and Country Team Leader for country strategy and programming for Laos.

Dražen KUREČIČ Assistant Minster for water management

Ministry of Agriculture, Croatia

Patrick LINKE Member of the Executive Board and the Chief Engineer, Qatar National Food Security Programme (QNFSP).

Managing Director and co-founder of the Qatar Sustainable Water and Energy Utilization Initiative (QWE).

Irene LUCIUS Head of Policy of WWF´s Danube Carpathian Programme, WWF International

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Name Experience

Ecosystem based approaches to management of the Danube River basin and the Carpathians

Biodiversity safeguards and stakeholder involvement processes of infrastructure projects.

Sustainable, integrated energy and land use.

Patrick MACQUARRIE Water Policy and Sustainability Advisor, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)

Yang-Jin OH Director, Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTM), Korea

Pavel PUNČOCHÁŘ Managing Director, Department of Water Management, Ministry of Agriculture, Czech republic

Waltraud RABITSCH Development cooperation expert (rural development&poverty alleviation), Austrian Development Agency

ADA Senior Advisor – International Programmes Department

Karl ROSE Director of Studies & Director, Policies & Scenarios, World Energy Council

Corporate Strategy for Shell in London and The Hague

Karl SCHWAIGER Directorate General for Water Management. Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, Austria

Co-President of the Platform “Water Management in the Alps”

Fuad SIALA Energy and Resources Consultant to OFID

OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID)

Pasquale STEDUTO Principal Officer, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN (FAO)

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).