Western City District – What’s happening with Supply and is it a good matchDwelling Type Generally there is little diversity of housing stock across the District. The vast majority of dwellings in Western City District are separate houses, comprising

76.0% of all dwellings on average across the District and ranging from 88.4% of dwellings in Camden and Wollondilly to 68.3% in Fairfield, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 52.5%.

The proportion of attached dwellings ranges from 4% in Wollondilly to 15.7% in Campbelltown, compared to 12.9% in Greater Sydney and 10.3% in Western City.

For flats, the average proportion in Western City is just 6.8%, varying from a tiny 0.67% in Wollondilly to 13% in Fairfield, with the Greater Sydney average being 26%.

Fairfield and Liverpool have the greatest diversity of housing stock in the District, with the highest proportion of flats and attached dwellings combined (25.3% and 22.6% respectively). Wollondilly has the least of diversity in housing stock with the highest proportion of separate houses and the lowest proportion of attached dwellings and flats.

There is a high proportion of unoccupied dwellings in the Blue Mountains (12.8%) which is well above the Greater Sydney average of 7.6%. This may be due in part to the number of holiday homes in this District. Note that all other Western City LGAs have a lower proportion of unoccupied dwellings compared to Greater Sydney.

The graph below shows the proportion of key dwelling types at the 2016 Census in each of the Western City District LGAs.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

There are small numbers of households living in caravan, cabin and houseboat accommodation in 2011 and 2016. Over that period the number declined in all LGAs, notably in Fairfield (96% reduction) and Liverpool (94% reduction), compared to a reduction of 49% across Greater Sydney. This decline is of note as caravan or residential parks are one of the few remaining affordable rental housing options for lower income households.

Bedroom Mix The overwhelming majority of dwellings in Western City are three, four or more

bedrooms, comprising 82.6% of all stock in the District and ranging from 76.0% in Fairfield to 92.0% in Camden.

Just 0.3% of dwellings are studios (Camden has the lowest proportion with 0.1%), 2.6% are one bedroom (ranging from 1.4% in Camden to 3.9% in Fairfield) and 12.1% are two bedroom (ranging from 4.7% in Camden to 16.7% in Fairfield) in Western City District. Compare these numbers to Eastern City, where 2.0% of dwellings are studios, 15.8% are one bedroom and 39.3% two bedroom homes.

There is a clear lack of diversity in bedroom numbers to provide choice to different household types, stages of the housing life cycle and price points. Camden and Wollondilly have the least studio, one and two bedroom stock in Western District, while Fairfield, Liverpool and Blue Mountains have the highest proportion of studio, one and two bedroom homes.

None of the Western District LGAs have a good balance of bedroom mix to meet the needs of the local community. Given the significant number of single person and couple only households, ideally there should be an increase in the number of studio, one and two bedroom dwellings. Looking to the future, with the ageing of the population in Western City District, this becomes more important. This also has the potential to assist in affordability.

The graph below shows the proportions of studio, one, two, three and four or more bedroom dwellings at the 2016 Census in each of the Western City District LGAs.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The table below shows the breakdown of dwelling size in Western City at the 2016 Census.

Area 0 Bedroom 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 + Bedrooms

Blue Mountains 0.2 3.1 14.3 43.2 37.5

Camden 0.1 1.4 4.7 26.4 65.5

Campbelltown 0.3 1.8 11.5 49.6 34.5

Fairfield 0.3 3.9 16.7 42.0 34.0

Hawkesbury 0.3 2.9 10.8 41.9 41.8

Liverpool 0.5 2.7 13.7 34.8 45.4

Penrith 0.3 2.0 10.2 45.8 39.3

Wollondilly 0.3 1.9 8.0 31.9 55.7

Western City District 0.3 2.6 12.1 41.1 41.5

Tenure The dominant tenure type in Western City is ownership with mortgage (37.6%), followed

by outright ownership (26.8%) and then private rental (21.9%). The proportion of each tenure has changed though between 2011 and 2016.

The proportion of outright ownership in Western City is slightly lower than that of Greater Sydney (26.8% and 27.7% respectively). Individual LGA proportions ranged from 22.6% in Liverpool to 37.8% in the Blue Mountains.

The proportion of ownership with mortgage is significantly higher than that of Greater Sydney (37.6% and 31.5% respectively) with individual LGAs ranging from 27.8% (Fairfield) to 50.2% (Camden).

The proportion of private rental is significantly lower than that of Greater Sydney (21.9% and 28% respectively) with individual LGAs ranging from 13.4% in Wollondilly to 25.6% in Fairfield. The lower proportion of private rental, particularly in Wollondilly and Blue Mountains (15.9%), means the local housing market is much less flexible in meeting local housing needs.

In the period between 2011 and 2016 there has been a shift in tenure across Western City District. The proportion of outright home ownership dropped by -0.6% across the District compared to a Greater Sydney reduction of -2.4%. All LGAs except for Blue

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Mountains and Hawkesbury recorded a decreasing proportion of outright ownership between -0.2% in Campbelltown to -2.1% in Camden.

The proportion of homes owned with a mortgage also decreased (-2.4%) and by a larger proportion than Greater Sydney (-1.7%). The decline in the proportion of homes owned with a mortgage ranged from -0.3% in Wollondilly to -3.6% in Fairfield and Penrith

In comparison the proportion of private rental households increased between 2011 and 2016 by 1.6% across the District, which is slightly lower than the increase for Greater Sydney, of 1.9%. All LGAs except for Blue Mountains, Hawkesbury and Wollondilly recorded increases and these ranged between 1.4% in Liverpool to 3.0% in Campbelltown.

The table below shows the proportion in each key tenure types across all LGAs in Western City District at the 2016 Census.

Public Housing The table below shows the number of public housing properties in the Western City

District as of June 2017.

Area Public Housing Stock (June 2017)

Blue Mountains 47

Camden 390

Campbelltown 6,042

Fairfield 3,830

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Hawkesbury 249

Liverpool 4,818

Penrith 2,648

Wollondilly 5

Greater Sydney 76,116

Campbelltown, Fairfield and Liverpool have a much higher proportion of social housing than the average for Greater Sydney, with some significant concentrations in public housing estates.

The table below shows the expected waiting times for general housing approved social housing applicants (not for priority housing applicants) by bedroom category in the Western City District. This District has a higher than average amount of social housing compared to other Sydney Districts and waiting times for general housing are between 5-10 years or 10+ years depending on allocation zone or bedroom numbers.

Blue Mountains Zone Campbelltown Zone Penrith Zone

Bedroom No

Expected waiting time

Bedroom No

Expected waiting time

Bedroom No

Expected waiting time

0-1 5-10 years 0-1 5-10 years 0-1 5-10 years

2 10+ years 2 5-10 years 2 5-10 years

3 5-10 years 3 5-10 years 3 5-10 years

4+ 5-10 years 4+ 5-10 years 4+ 5-10 years

Camden Zone Fairfield Zone Wollondilly Zone

Bedroom No

Expected waiting time

Bedroom No

Expected waiting time

Bedroom No

Expected waiting time

0-1 5-10 years 0-1 10+ years 0-1 5-10 years

2 5-10 years 2 10+ years 2 5-10 years

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3 5-10 years 3 10+ years 3 5-10 years

4+ 5-10 years 4+ 10+ years 4+ 10+ years

More information on Expected Waiting Times for Public Housing is available on the Housing NSW website by region at: http://www.housingpathways.nsw.gov.au/How+to+Apply/Expected+Waiting+Times/

The Gap Despite this District being relatively more affordable, there is a large and growing gap

between the increasing number of low income earners in the private rental market and the declining number of private rental properties that are affordable for low income households.

The predominance and growing numbers of low income households suggests that the demand for affordable housing in the Western City District is strong and growing and has implications for availability of affordable housing into the future.

The graph below shows the trend in growth in the number of low income renters in comparison with the trend of decline in the number of new bonds lodged which are affordable to low income renters.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Blue Mountains

Camden

Campbelltown

Fairfield

Hawkesb

ury

Liverpool

Penrith

Wollondilly

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Comparison Low Income Renters and Affordable Rental for Low Income Earners - Western City District - 2006-2017

Low income Renters 2006

Affordable Rental 2006

Low income Renters 2011

Affordable Rental 2010

Low income Renters 2016

Affordable Rental 2017

When you take into account the relative undersupply of private rental, combined with the strong increase in rental levels, decline in rental affordability for lower income earners, significant loss of affordable rental properties, very high proportion of lower income households in rental stress and relatively high numbers of lower income households residing in Western City District, there is a strong argument for increasing the supply of private rental and provision of affordable housing.

Housing costs have been rising much faster than wages in Australia. House prices escalated from the mid 1990’s, with median home prices increasing from four times median incomes in the early 1990’s to more than eight times that in Sydney in 20181. Since 1998 housing costs have increased by 300% while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased by 63%. Wage growth is linked to CPI, with the Fair Work Commission increasing the minimum wage by 3% in 2019. Note that while calculation of the CPI is based on a basket of goods, it does not include rent2. The Australian Treasury reported in 2017 3 (p2) “on a variety of measures, wage growth is low”.

There is a very clear need for more affordable rental accommodation to begin to address the significant demand supply imbalance, particularly for lower income households. The last Census saw a significant increase in homelessness and particularly for those living in overcrowded accommodation (where overcrowding is defined as requiring four or more additional bedrooms to meet usual housing standards). Targeted affordable housing to meet the needs of a range of household types would assist in meeting some of this demand.

None of the Western City LGAs have a good balance of bedroom mix to meet the needs of the local community. There is a very low proportion of studio, one and two bedroom stock, particularly when compared to the proportion of lone person and couple only households, as the graph below shows. Given the significant number and forecast increase of single person and couple only households, ideally there should be an increase in such dwellings.

More one and two bedroom dwellings suitable for single and couple only households would provide greater flexibility in the dwelling stock to meet the range of housing needs in the local community, including for older age groups. It may also assist in providing some more affordable housing choices.

Secondary dwellings and new generation boarding houses should be encouraged – these dwelling types are suited to single person households, are by definition rental so will add to the stock of rental dwellings, and by virtue of their size tend to be a little more affordable. These dwelling types will help diversify the housing stock and provide some flexibility to meet the needs of the community.

The graph below compares the number of lone person and couple only households with the number of studio and one bedroom dwellings in each of the Western City District LGAs at the 2016 Census.

1 “Here’s a look at the widening gap between wages and house prices”. Chris Pash, Business Insider Australia March 6 2018.2 “Minimum wage nowhere near keeping pace with rents.” Killian Plastow, New Daily, June 5 2019.3 Analysis of Wage Growth 2017 Australian Government The Treasury

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Who needs affordable housing A wide range of people need affordable housing. Single income earners who fall into the

low income category include aged care and disability workers, retail sales assistants, production workers, receptionists and early career child care workers. People working in accommodation and food services comprise around 8% of the workforce nationally and are amongst the lowest paid workers.

Single income households in particular are less able to compete in the housing market. Increasing numbers of older single women are homeless or at risk of homelessness due

to the lack of available affordable rental housing. A 2017 survey of NSW Nurses and Midwives Association (NSWMA) members showed

that thirty six per cent of respondents moved home or changed jobs in the previous 12 months because of housing affordability issues.

NSWNMA said the lack of affordable housing was having a major impact on Sydney nurses in particular, pushing nurses and midwives to move further away from the hospitals and services they work in and locking them into long commutes. Further, it is causing difficulties in recruiting and retaining nursing staff.

A recent study on key worker housing4 in Sydney found that:o “there is evidence to suggest that high house prices and rents are ‘pushing

out’ some of Sydney’s key workers…” (p4)o “Housing affordability for key worker groups is likely to decline further without

effective market innovation or policy change.” (p5)

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the FACS website at:

4 Key worker housing affordability in Sydney. A report prepared for Teachers Mutual Bank, Firefighters Mutual Bank, Policy Bank and My Credit Union by Nicole Gurran, Catherine Gilbert, Yuting Zhang and Peter Phibbs. January 2018

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/nsw-local-government-housing-kit/chapters/local-government-housing-kit-database

More information on public housing waiting times is available on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/housing/help/applying-assistance/expected-waiting-times

Additional data on social housing delivery is available on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/statistics/social-housing-delivery

More information about community housing providers is available on the NSW CHIA (Community Housing Industry Association) website, including their affordable housing tool kit. The Tool Kit is based on extensive research about reasons for community resistance to affordable housing, and effective ways of building support for affordable housing:

https://nswfha.wpengine.com/lb/toolkits/ahtk/toolkit/

The NSW CHIA 2018 community housing state of the industry report is also available:

http://communityhousing.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/StateoftheIndustry-web.pdf

Link to story on NSWNMA site about the impact on nurses of lack of affordable housing:

https://www.nswnma.asn.au/nswnma-backs-affordable-housing-for-essential-workers/

www.facs.nsw.gov.au