westcas - shortage impacts on az cap general manager david modeer october 29, 2014
DESCRIPTION
WESTCAS - Shortage Impacts on AZ CAP General Manager David Modeer October 29, 2014. Central Arizona Project. 336-mile aqueduct stretches from Lake Havasu to Tucson 14 pumping plants lift water nearly 3,000 feet 8 siphons, 3 tunnels Lake Pleasant/New Waddell Dam - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
WESTCAS - Shortage Impacts on AZ
CAP General ManagerDavid Modeer
October 29, 2014
336-mile aqueduct stretches from Lake Havasu to Tucson
14 pumping plants lift water nearly 3,000 feet
8 siphons, 3 tunnels
Lake Pleasant/New Waddell Dam
Annually delivers approx. 520 billion gallons (1.6 mill acre-feet)
Delivery of Colorado River water began in 1985 in Maricopa County
Construction complete in 1993
ARIZONA
Central Arizona Project
CAP System Power Usage
CAP uses about 2,800,000 megawatt hours of electrical energy each year.
CAP is the single largest end-user of power in Arizona.
Where Does CAP Get Its Power?
95% of the energy used by CAP is produced at the Navajo Generating Station near Page, Arizona.
CAP, through the Bureau of Reclamation, has access to nearly 25% of the power produced.
Background and Importance of NGS• Constructed in the early 1970s on the Navajo
Reservation near Page, AZ, to provide power to the CAP as an alternative to two additional dams in the vicinity of the Grand Canyon
• 3 coal-fired units, total net output of 2,250 megawatts (MW)
• Operated by the Salt River Project (SRP) on behalf of six participants
• Provides 95% of power required by CAP
• Surplus power from the BOR’s share of NGS is sold to help fund CAP repayment, which in turn funds Indian water rights settlements
LADWP21.2%
TEP7.5%
APS 14.0%
USBR (CAP)24.3%SRP
21.7%
NV Energy11.3%
Benefits to CAP of TWG AgreementEPA released its final rule in July 2014
Ensures the viability of NGS to 2044
Provides certainty that stable and reliable power supplies are available for decades
Significantly delays the cost of SCR, potentially until 2030
Preserves CAP's ability to fund Arizona's repayment obligation for construction of the CAP system through the sale of surplus NGS power
Interim Guidelines (2007)
Basin States agreement in 2006 on conjunctive management of Lakes Powell and Mead and
shortage sharing in the Lower Basin
• Adopted by Secretary
in 2007
• Effective through
water year 2026
• Renegotiation to start
by 2020
2007 Guidelines
• Lower Basin apportionments are reduced when Lake Mead falls below specified elevations:
Elevation Reduction 1075’ 333,000 AF 1050’ 417,000 AF 1025’ 500,000 AF
• If Lake Mead is projected to fall below elevation 1000, the Secretary will consult with Basin States to discuss further measures
Shortage Sharing• Arizona and Nevada share Lower Basin shortages
under the 2007 Guidelines• Mexico voluntarily agreed in Minute 319 to accept
reductions in its deliveries at the same elevationsLake Mead Elevation
Arizona Reduction
Nevada Reduction
Mexico Reduction
1075’ 320,000 AF 13,000 AF 50,000 AF
1050’ 400,000 AF 17,000 AF 70,000 AF
1025’ 480,000 AF 20,000 AF 125,000 AF
No reductions to California under 2007 Guidelines
2017 Level 1 Shortage
Ag Pool Shortage(163,000)
Other Excess Shortage (157,000)
Priority 3 68,400
Ag Pool 137,000
NIA Priority 225,000
CAP Delivery Priority
LowH
igh
IndianPriority317,000
M&IPriority471,000
1.5 MAF
0.5 MAF
0 MAF
1.0 MAF
320,
000
Lake Mead Since 2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
201424 M
onth
2015
2016
9901,0001,0101,0201,0301,0401,0501,0601,0701,0801,0901,1001,1101,1201,1301,1401,1501,1601,1701,1801,1901,2001,2101,220
Observed Elevation Projected 24 Month 1075 - First Shortage Level
Lake
Mea
d El
evati
on (ft
)
91% Full (25 MAF)
12.52 MAF Powell Release
35% Full (9.6 MAF)
Impact of “Structural Deficit”• Results in a decline of 12+ feet in Lake Mead
every year when releases from Powell are “normal” (8.23 MAF)
• Undermines effectiveness of the 2007 Guidelines
• Drives Lower Basin to shortage
• CAP forced to bear obligations of others
• Evaporation and other system losses
• Lower Basin’s half of Mexican Treaty obligation
• US failure to operate YDP
Risk to All Colorado River UsersWithout equalization or corrective action, Lake Mead will fall below elevation 1000 in 5-8 years
If Lake Mead is below elevation 1000:• Impacts SNWA ability to withdraw
water• Less than 4.5 MAF left in storage in
Lake Mead• Reduced power generation and
efficiency at Hoover Dam, potential cavitation or vibration damage
What will the Secretary of the Interior do?
Drought Response Plan• Based on principle that all Colorado River water and power
users share risk • CAP and ADWR are working with Basin States and Reclamation
to prepare a “Drought Response and Sustainability Plan”• Ongoing efforts• Expand weather modification and tamarisk removal• Pilot System Conservation Agreement• Yuma Desalting Plant pilot run• Innovative Conservation Program grants• Long-term augmentation studies
Current Status
Lake Mead is at elevation
1081 feet = 39% capacity
• 2015 – no shortage
• 2016 - 36% probability
• 2017 – 58% probability
CAP is working on a reservoir protection plan with other Lower Basin water users and taking steps to protect
Lake Mead
Questions?