WELLINGTON labour market snapshot

Employment• 269,000 people

employed end Dec 2012 (rate 65.6%)

• Wellington tanked post recession. Slow since March 2010.

• Canterbury and Auckland tanked earlier, but recovered more rapidly, until February 2011.

• Now Auckland has weakened but still growing, and Canterbury is stepping up.

Incomes

• Wellington has high average annual household incomes

• But employment growth in filled jobs has been below average (and below other urban regions)

Vacancies

• Canterbury vacancies have been higher, esp. since the Feb 11 quake

• Auckland and Wellington vacancy levels are similar (flat)

Participation

• High participation – 70.3% vs 68.2% nationally (only Southland higher)

• Larger proportion of population in the working ages (15-64)

Unemployment

• Wellington now matches the national rate (6.9%)

• Has generally been more resilient during recessions

Industry• Strongest in

professional, scientific and technical services, and in public administration and safety

• Weaker in manufacturing, and agriculture, forestry and fishing.

2012

Skills• Wellington and Auckland

both highly skilled, with less emphasis on skilled and elementary occupations, but also with a higher than average share of semi-skilled

• Highly skilled: managers and professional occupations

• Skilled: technicians and trades workers

• Semi-skilled: clerks, services and sales workers, agriculture and forestry workers

• Elementary: machinery operators and assemblers, general labourers

Forecasts

Annual average percentage change

2013* 2014 2015

GDP Growth (Treasury) 3.0 3.4 3.1

Labour Productivity 1.2 1.3 1.5

Employment growth 1.8 2.1 1.6Source: MBIE Short-term Employment Prospects: December 2012 (March years)

• Forecasts vary continuously, but can be usefully examined to see the basic trends and how the various components relate

• 2013 employment growth to March is now forecast to be -0.7%, GDP 2.3%*• Labour productivity has been growing, as GDP does quite well, while

employment growth has been slow

Employment growth by industry forecastIndustry 2013 2014 2015

Primary sector 1,800 1.1 3,600 2.2 2,700 1.6

Primary processing 1,700 1.8 1,500 1.5 2,100 2.1

Other manufacturing 2,900 1.8 1,700 1.0 2,300 1.4

Construction & utilities 15,800 8.6 18,600 9.3 4,200 1.9

Private services* 14,200 1.5 13,700 1.4 14,900 1.5

Core government -700 -0.7 -200 -0.2 400 0.4

Health & education 4,200 1.0 6,000 1.4 7,200 1.7

Other public 700 0.5 1,100 0.8 2,200 1.4

Total 40,700 1.8 46,100 2.1 36,000 1.6

Source: MBIE Short-term Employment Prospects: December 2012 (March years)* incl. Communication Services; Finance and Insurance; Property and Business Services; Professional , Scientific and Technical Services;

Employment growth by skills forecast

Skill level 2013 2014 2015

Highly skilled 15,300 2.1 17,100 2.3 16,500 2.2

Skilled 12,100 2.5 13,300 2.7 7,200 1.4

Semi-skilled 6,100 0.9 7,800 1.1 7,400 1.1

Elementary 7,200 2.2 7,900 2.4 4,900 1.4

Total 40,700 1.8 46,100 2.1 36,000 1.6

Source: MBIE Short-term Employment Prospects: December 2012 (March years)

• Strongest growth in skilled, highly skilled, and elementary level occupations, reflecting the Canterbury rebuild and the strong growth in construction

• Both skilled and elementary play a smaller than national average role in Wellington’s labour market

Employment growth by region forecast Region 2012-14 2012-15

Northland 1,100 0.9% 3,200 1.6%

Auckland 23,600 1.8% 35,300 1.7%

Waikato 4,300 1.3% 8,200 1.7%

Taranaki 2,300 1.1% 6,100 2.0%

Bay of Plenty 5,200 1.7% 8,700 1.9%

East Coast 3,200 1.6% 5,600 1.8%

Central 3,400 1.5% 6,600 1.9%

Wellington 1,600 0.3% 8,900 1.2%

Nelson 3,700 2.0% 5,700 2.0%

Canterbury 26,500 4.2% 22,100 2.4%

Southern 11,800 2.7% 12,000 1.8%

Total 86,800 2.0% 122,800 1.8%

Employment growth by industry forecast - WNIndustry 2013 2014 2015

Primary sector 25 3.0 35 4.0 3 0.0

Primary processing 65 -2.0 69 2.0 172 6.0

Other manufacturing 92 -1.0 49 0.0 416 4.0

Construction & utilities 886 5.0 654 3.0 1,542 8.0

Private services* 549 0.0 1,637 1.0 1,796 2.0

Core government -1,469 -5.0 -1,235 -5.0 1,935 7.0

Health & education 93 0.0 336 1.0 1,024 2.0

Other public 19 0.0 167 1.0 448 2.0

Total 93 0.0 1,713 1.0 7,331 3.0

Source: MBIE Short-term Employment Prospects: December 2012 (March years)* incl. Communication Services; Finance and Insurance; Property and Business Services; Professional , Scientific and Technical Services;

Challenges/Opportunities

• Diversifying Wellington’s industry mix• Internationalising Wellington’s professional business service firms

(which are currently focussed on government)• Continuing to improve tourism takings and better leveraging visitor

attractions to attract talent and investment• Commercialising science and research development