welcome to the webinar we’ll be starting shortly… environmental scanning: what it is and how to...
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Welcome to the WebinarWe’ll be starting shortly…
Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it
Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it
Maree ConwayThinking Futures
….using futures approaches to integrate strategic thinking into strategy development and planning
• What ES is and why do it
• ES and strategy
• Getting started with ES
• Back to work
Industry NumberConsulting 31Education 15Other 11Govt-Federal 6Missing 6Government - State & Local 4High Tech - Other 3Advertising/Marketing/PR 2Aerospace & Defense 2Banking & Securities 2Financial Services 2Hospitality, Travel, Tourism 2Manufacturing 2Accounting 1Energy, Chemical, Utilities 1Retail 1Software - Other 1Telecommunications 1Transportation & Distribution 1
Experience Level NumberTotal beginner 22
Just staring out 37
Experienced 35
• What’s your definition of environmental scanning?
• ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment,
• to better understand the nature of trends and deep drivers of change
• and their likely future impact on your organisation.
• Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high quality strategic thinking…
• Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high quality strategic thinking…
• …that informs the development of futures ready strategy for an organisation.
• Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies an organisation to respond to the challenges of the future.
Quick Survey
How many of you have formal scanning systems operational in your organisations?
Why a Scanning System?
• To strengthen the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategy development
• To let you understand what’s coming and what’s changing and what it means for you
• To give you enough time to prepare and be proactive
• To give you a competitive edge• To move you beyond busy - out of crisis
management mode
Strategic ThinkingWhat might happen in the future? Generating Options
Strategic Decision Making Where will go in the future? Making Decisions
Strategic PlanningWhat will we do today?
Taking Action
Environmental Scanning
What can we see today? Seeking Information
• Current strategy processes tend to focus on the plan as the major outcome, rather than a shared understanding of your organisation’s preferred future to inform action today.
Improvement action identified/changes to
plans identified
Making VU 2016: A Statement of
PurposeStrategic vision and objectives
University Priorities2008-2010
Outcomes & Strategies to implement
Unit Strategic Plans2008-2010
Faculties, Schools& Service areas
Implementation of University Priority strategies
Internal & External Planning Inputs
Ongoing environmental scanning
•Educational & societal trends•Government policy drivers•Legislation•University cross-sectoral strategies•Other University Plans (eg OHS, Disability, Staff Equity etc)
SPDP: individual Staff Plans
Quality Improvement Reviews (QIRs)
Approval of operational plansReview of current year’s
performance
Reviewed each year in first half
of year
Reviewed and updated in
August/September; finalised following QIRs in November
Held in November each year
University Budget ProcessIterative process to align
budgets and plansBudget sign-off at end
SeptemberQuarterly Budget Reviews
Department Plans
Current until 2016
QIR Inputs Organisational Unit QIR
PortfoliosFaculty Review OutcomesAnnual Course Reporting
Course ReviewSubject Evaluation Outcomes
AQTF outcomesAUQA Follow up
Think tomorrow is going to be more of today
Can’t cope with the unexpected
Usually don’t explore the long term future
Prefer quantitative over qualitative information
Don’t challenge assumptions
Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs, hopes and fears about the future
• While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003).
• It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000).
• A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans” (Mintzberg, 1994).
• Current strategy processes live in the pragmatic futures realm.
• Working within the existing paradigm, making it better, but not challenging it.
• We call it ‘strategic planning’.
• Beyond strategic planning – to strategy development and implementation.
• Moving into the progressive futures realm, where we challenge the current paradigm and re-interpret how we do business to meet the challenges of the future.
Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches requires a strong focus on building a high quality strategic thinking capacity in your organisation.
We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.
...because what works today will probably not work for those who follow you in the future...
• If you don’t spend the time to improve the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategic decisions, then you will get superficial, limited and ultimately useless strategy.
So how do we get started with environmental scanning?
BIGDEEPLONG
BIG
Take a big picture, systems perspective…our micro-decisions coalesce to create global futures
DEEP
Our assumptions encase us in the past.
We all have blind spots that cause us to miss important information.
LONG
Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
Possible Futures
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
Possible Futures
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
The Scanning Process
Adapted from K. van der Heijden
IndustryEnvironment
Social Environment
Suppliers
Clients
Competitors
Organisation
Driving Forces
Driving Forces
Factors / Trends Issues / ForcesSocialTechnologicalEconomicEcologicalPolitical…
Customers
Members of Wider Society
The External Environment
Organisation
Industry
Learning
EducationalGaming
Funding
Engagement
Online
Sustainability
VocationalImperative
StudentsSuppliers
Stakeholders
Organisation
Global
Industry
Technology
Lifestyle
Values
Politics
Economy
Environment
Demographics &generational change
Learning
EducationalGaming
Funding
Engagement
Online
Sustainability
VocationalImperative
Globalisation
Organisation
Global
Industry
Technology
Lifestyle
Values
Politics
Economy
Environment
Demographics &generational change
Learning
Educational Gaming
Funding
Engagement
Online
Sustainability
VocationalImperative
GlobalisationWildcard
Wildcard
Wildcard
Wildcard
Things Happening
Trend(grouping of events)
Driver(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
Trend(grouping of events)
Driver(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
When you start scanning, you will find lots of things happening
Things Happening
Trend(grouping of events)
Driver(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
Gradually, you will be able to group similar ‘hits’ into broader categories – trends.
Things Happening
But it might still feel like this – a bit of a maze to try and work your way through…
Trend(grouping of events)
Driver(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
What we are really interested in exploring is what is driving these trends.
Things Happening
And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will start to make sense.
Who Scans?
Scanning is not a solitary activity…
Where to Look?
Emerging Issues
Trends
Mainstream
Time
Number of cases; degree of public awareness
Few cases, local focus
Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers
InnovatorsEarly adopters
Late Adopters
Late Majority
Laggards
Today
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
Emerging Issues
Trends
Mainstream
Time
Number of cases; degree of public awareness
Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs
Government Institutions
Few cases, local focus
Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers
InnovatorsEarly adopters
Late Adopters
Late Majority
Laggards
Today
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
Emerging Issues
Trends
Mainstream
Time
Number of cases; degree of public awareness
Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs
Government Institutions
Few cases, local focus
Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers
InnovatorsEarly adopters
Late Adopters
Late Majority
Laggards
Today
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
Most scanning takes place here
Emerging Issues
Trends
Mainstream
Time
Number of cases; degree of public awareness
Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals,blogs
Government Institutions
Few cases, local focus
Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers
InnovatorsEarly adopters
Late Adopters
Late Majority
Laggards
Today
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
But we need to look on the fringe as well
• Newspapers, twitter, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities.
Where to look…
Shaping Tomorrow
• If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t yet exist, don’t talk to normal people because they’re just consuming what is available today – find the weirdos and see what they are doing, what they’re making on their own, and say gee – is there something I can mainstream from this?
Tom Kelly
Founder, Ideo
Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking…
Trends
Emerging Issues
The weird and unimaginable
• Shaping Tomorrow• Trendwatching• Brain Reserve• Now and Next• The Tomorrow Project• Strategic Business Insights• Arlington Institute
Some Scanning Sites
• What is happening today with your issue?
• What are other people saying about its evolution over time? How credible are they?
Looking for…
• Don’t dismiss the outliers…
• New, first• Idea
• Change• Surprise
• Opportunity• Threat
• Diversity of perspectives
Looking for…
• Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.
Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004
Looking for…
• What are the major driving forces?• What big surprises are on the horizon?• What are possible discontinuities
(wildcards)?• What are the sources of inspiration and
hope?
As you scan…
Richard Slaughter, Foresight International
• If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop.• First, ask why do I think it’s rubbish?• Second, take another look.• Third, ask what would enable you to
accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening.
As you scan…
Classifying Hits
Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
STEEP or add in Values to make it VERY STEEP (VSTEEP)*
*Marcus Barber, Looking Up, Feeling Good
When is a hit useful?
• Does the hit help you understand your issue?
• Does the hit identify a new way of seeing the issue?
• Does the hit help you to explore trends and their potential impacts?
Shaping Tomorrow
• Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives?
• Does the hit challenge existing assumptions underpinning current polices and practice?
Shaping Tomorrow
• Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition – your expertise, knowledge and insight is the best gauge of usefulness.
• But, remember your blind spots!
Recording and Sharing Hits
• Title• Summary• Source and date published• Initial assessment of implications• Tag/VSTEEP category
What to Record
• For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by Strategic Business Insights)
• 2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information
Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of Packet Video (a developer of video streaming technology) from consumer to security applications. The company’s technology could provide live feeds from the cockpits of hijacked planes.
Reporting Your Findings
• A snapshot report of the external environment.
• A background paper for the strategic planning cycle.
• Regular trend reports on single trends.• More detailed quarterly reports on
implications of trends and drivers.• Quick snippets about what you are finding.• Rating the hits – staff involvement.• In all cases, add in trigger questions to
prompt discussion/conversation.
• What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future?
• What might be the implications for your organisation?
• How might you respond?
• How, and in what ways, could this information be relevant to my organisation?
Strategic ThinkingWhat might happen in
the future?
Generating Options
Strategic Decision Making Where will go in the
future?Making Decisions
Strategic PlanningWhat will we do today? Taking Action
Environmental ScanningWhat can we see today?
Seeking Information
Reporting Template Examples
Back to Work
• Never underestimate your influence.
• Make it part of your deliverables.
• Look for ‘friendlies’.
• Start local.
Andy Hines, An Audit for Organizational Futurists: 10 Questions Every Organizational Futurist Should be Able to Answer, 2003
Have good organisational diagnostics: can smell the cheese, but will jump ship.
Get it, and can use the system – very rare.
Don’t bother – they are waiting for you to fail! They will follow
you blindly – just like lemmings!
Long term
Uncertain
Divergent
Incomplete
Beyond linear
Disruption
Challenges: Info Overload
Challenges: Stretching Your Thinking
Challenges: Finding the Time
Unconscious
Implicit
Solitary
Organisational Scanning
Conscious
Explicit
Collective
Individual Scanning
• The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information that strengthens your understanding of your organisation’s long term context…
• …to enable you to make wise
strategic decisions today.
We do scanning to avoid having this perspective on the future…
Enjoy your scanning!
• Download Building Strategic Futures Guides:– Getting Started with Futures– Environmental Scanning
http://thinkingfutures.net/resources/building-strategic-futures-guides/
Contact Details
Maree Conwayhttp://www.thinkingfutures.net
Tel: + 61 3 9016 9506Mobile: + 61 425 770 181
Skype: mkconway1
Shaping Tomorrowhttp://www.shapingtomorrow.com
Foresight Networkhttp://shapingtomorrowmain.ning.com
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