welcome to the facts and figures workshop
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop
Phil Graham,
Chairman Facts and Figures Committee
Head of Marine at Chaucer
16th Sept 2019
IUMI Facts & Figures Workshop Agenda
• Update on Facts & Figures Committee
• Major Claims Database Pilot
• Report on World Trade , Merchant Fleet and Offshore Energy Outlook
• Phil Graham , Chairman IUMI Facts & Figures Committee
• Global Marine Insurance Report
• Astrid Seltmann, Analyst/Actuary, CEFOR
• Risk rules the waves: How the Iran-US Geopolitical Crisis is impacting Shipping
and Insurance Risk
• Michelle Bockmann, Shipping and commodities editor/analyst, Lloyd’s List
Intelligence, UK-London
2
Update on Facts & Figures
Committee
Facts & Figures Committee Members
Andrea Mazza
Swiss Re International
Genova, Italy
Astrid Seltmann
Vice Chair
CEFOR
Oslo, Norway
Atsushi Tabata
Sompo Japan Nipponkoa
Insurance Inc.
Tokyo, Japan
Ben Chung
Bank of China Group
Insurance Company
Hong Kong
David Matcham
IUA (International
Underwriting Association)
London, United Kingdom
Emiel Paaij
DUPI Underwriting
Agencies
Rotterdam, Netherlands
Erika Schoch
ALSUM Representative
Swiss Re Americas
Armonk, NY USA
Javier Alonso Puente
Mapfre Re
Madrid, Spain
Jun Lin
Gard
London, United Kingdom
Lars Lange
Executive Committee Liaison,
IUMI
Hamburg, Germany
Li Zhang
Taiping Reinsurance (China)
Company Ltd, Beijing
China
Marika Svalskulla
Secretary
SIRIUS
Stockholm, Sweden
Mathieu Daubin
Axa Corporate Solutions
Paris, France
Paul Hackett
Canopius
Singapore
Philip Graham
Chairman
Chaucer Syndicate 1084
London, United Kingdom
Robert Copp
Axis Reinsurance
New York, USA
Stephan Klein
GenRe
Cologne, Germany
4
Facts & Figures Committee Members
Andrea Mazza
Hull Index & Cargo Index
IUMI Stats report
Liaison to Cargo
Committee
Astrid Seltmann
Vice Chair
Global Marine Report
IUMI Stats report
Atsushi Tabata
Liaison to Loss Prevention
Committee
Ben Chung
Liaison to Loss Prevention
Committee
David Matcham
Major Claims Database
Liaison to Policy Forum
Emiel Paaij
Liaison to Legal Liability
Committee
Erika Schoch
ALSUM Representative
Liaison to Inland Fishing
Yacht Committee
Javier Alonso Puente
Liaison to Inland Fishing
Yacht Committee
Jun Lin
Offshore report
Liaison to Offshore
Committee
Lars Lange
Liaison to Executive
Committee
Li Zhang
Liaison to Offshore
Committee
Marika Svalskulla
Secretary / Liability Project
Liaison to Legal Liability
Committee
Mathieu Daubin
Cargo Report
Liaison to Cargo Committee
Paul Hackett
Liaison to Hull Committee
Philip Graham
Chairman / Hull Report
Liaison to Hull Committee
Robert Copp
IUMI Newsletters
Liaison to Loss Prevention
Committee
Stephan Klein
Cyber Initiatives
5
https://iumi.com/statistics
Statistics Spring 2019
• IUMI 2019 Spring Cargo Statistics
• IUMI 2019 Spring Cargo Statistics - Analysis
• IUMI 2019 Spring Hull Statistics
• IUMI 2019 Spring Hull Statistics - Analysis
• IUMI 2019 Spring Offshore Energy Statistics
• IUMI 2019 Spring Offshore Energy Statistics - Analysis
Statistics Autumn 2018
• Cargo Index 2018 documentation
• Cargo Index 2018
• Hull Repair Cost Index 2018
• Hull Repair Cost Index 2018 documentation
• Hull Repair Cost Index 2018 methodology
• IUMI Conference 2018 Report on world merchant fleet and world trade
• IUMI Conference 2018 Major claims database project
• IUMI Conference 2018 Global Marine Insurance Report
• IUMI Conference 2018 Global premiums
• IUMI Conference 2018 Loss ratio triangulations
• IUMI conference 2018 Sub-Saharan Africa: medium term opportunities and risk
• IUMI Conference 2018 Cargo factsheet 2018
• IUMI Conference 2018 Cargo statistics - analysis 2018
• IUMI Conference 2018 Ocean Hull factsheet 2018
• IUMI Conference 2018 Ocean Hull statistics - analysis 2018
• IUMI Conference 2018 Offshore Energy factsheet 2018
• IUMI Conference 2018 Offshore Energy statistics - analysis 2018
IUMI Stats and data downloads (for IUMI members)
6
7 International Union of Marine Insurance April 2019
https://iumi.com/statistics
IUMI Stats Report (public)
Key Data & Content Providers
8
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Copyright notice and disclaimer
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. For IHS Markit clients’ use only.
These webinar slides are subject to IHS Markit copyright and are being provided to IHS Markit
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organization.
9
Disclaimer
10
The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates and/or forward looking predictions) contained herein (together, the "Information") are
provided by Clarkson Research Services Limited ("Clarksons Research") for general guidance and not by way of recommendation. The Information is provided on "as
is" and “as available” basis. Clarksons Research and all its Group companies make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the
completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the
recipient's own risk and no responsibility is accepted for any loss or damage howsoever arising. Please note that future rates and/or forward looking predictions are
for illustration purposes only and given without guarantee; the ultimate outcome may be different.
This Information is not for reproduction or distribution without Clarksons Research’s prior written consent. Especially, the Information is not to be used in any
document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Research, its Group
companies and/or its licensors.
This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD, COMMODITY QUAY, ST KATHARINE DOCKS, LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, E1W 1BF
Clarksons Research
Major Claims Database Pilot
IUMI Major Claim Database Project
Create a large and consistent loss database (hull and cargo) with
standardized data from member companies in order to analyze major
losses with respect to loss severity, frequency, location and cause
12
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
18
by
Th
e B
osto
n C
on
su
ltin
g G
rou
p, In
c. A
ll r
igh
ts r
ese
rve
d.
going into 2nd year with additional participants
Hull Cargo
Countries
Data fields
• Date of accident
• Underwriting year
• Loss amount
• Type of loss
• Location of loss
• IMO number
• Vessel name
• Vessel type
• Event name
• Date of accident
• Underwriting year
• Loss amount
• Type of loss
• Location of loss
• Mode of transport
• IMO number
• Vessel name
• Type of cargo
• SIC codes
• Event name
Major Claims Database successfully
piloted in 2018
Claims count 3,289 1,386
Marine Market Snapshot
World Trade
World Merchant Fleet
Offshore Energy Outlook
Source various press
• 31 underwriting entities have either pulled out or severely restricted their marine underwriting since 2017
• 21 of those since we sat in Cape town in 2018
• In either Hull or Cargo and in Europe , North America and Asia
• Markets have reacted with reports of positive pricing
Marine Market Snapshot
24.4%
57.4%
6.7%
11.6%
2018
Global Hull
Transport/Cargo
Marine Liability
Offshore/Energy
Marine Premiums 2018by line of business
Total estimate 2018: 28.9 USD billion
Change 2017 to 2018: +1%
NB: Exchange rate effects!
16
(other than IGPI)
Report on
World Trade
“ Confronting the chaos for a
sustainable future? “
Global worries …
18
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Ind
ex
, o
ve
r 5
0 s
ign
als
ex
pa
ns
ion
United States Eurozone China Japan
IHS Markit manufacturing PMIs®
19
Purchasing managers’ indexes
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
signal deteriorating business conditions in major economies
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pe
rce
nt
ch
an
ge
Real GDP Industrial production Real goods & services trade
Global output and trade growth have slowed
20
Global real GDP, industrial production, and real exports
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Global real GDP growth will
slow from 3.2% in 2018 to
2.7% in 2019 and 2020
Forces affecting the growth of world trade
21
Cyclical forces
• Maturing global expansion
• Deceleration in capital spending
• Weak commodity prices
Structural forces
• Shift from manufacturing to services
• Shortening of global supply chains
• Trade protectionism
• Technological advances
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
NorthAmerica
OtherAmericas
WesternEurope
EmergingEurope
Mideast-N. Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Japan OtherAsia-
Pacific
An
nu
al
perc
en
t ch
an
ge
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022–26
Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) will continue to lead all regions in real GDP growth
22
Real GDP
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
US economy is expected to
grow 2.3% in 2019 and 2020,
supported by strong consumer
finances and short term new
fiscal stimulus.
North America18.1%
Other Americas4.1%
Western Europe8.8%
Emerging Europe4.8%
Asia-Pacific57.3%
Middle East & North Africa4.2% Sub-Saharan
Africa 2.8%
Asia-Pacific will account for 57% ofglobal real GDP growth from 2018 to 2028
Percent of world real GDP growth, 2018–28
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Notable contributions:
China 35.6%
United States 15.9%
India 8.8%
23
0
5
10
15
20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Pe
rce
nt
ch
an
ge
Real GDP Industrial production
China’s growth will downshift in the long run
24
Real GDP and industrial production
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Rising US supply will restrain crude oil prices
25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028
Do
lla
rs/b
arr
el
Current US dollars 2018 US dollars
Price of Dated Brent crude oil
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Pe
rce
nt
ch
an
ge
World Advanced countries Emerging markets
Global consumer price inflation is relatively steady
26
Consumer price inflation
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
NorthAmerica
OtherAmericas
WesternEurope
EmergingEurope
Mideast-N.Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Japan Other Asia-Pacific
An
nu
al
pe
rce
nt
ch
an
ge
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022–26
Consumer price inflation varies widely
27
Consumer price inflation
Note: Venezuela is excluded from Other Americas.
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Ten-year government bond yields are exceptionally low
28
Ten-year government bond yields
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Pe
rce
nt
United States Germany Japan
World Trade Summary
• Global real GDP growth will slow from 3.2% in 2018 to 2.7% in 2019 and 2020, led by decelerations in world trade and investment.
• The US economy is expected to grow 2.3% in 2019 and 2020, supported by strong consumer finances and new fiscal stimulus.
• Despite policy easing, eurozone growth will average just 1.0% in 2019–20. UK growth will diminish under a protracted and uncertain Brexit process.
• The Asia-Pacific region will make the strongest contribution to global growth, although China’s economic deceleration is driving a regional slowdown.
• Economic risks have risen, but not enough to trigger a near-term global recession. These include US-China trade conflicts, hostilities in the Middle East, rising debt levels, and political uncertainty in many parts of the world.
• Low interest rates and sizable fiscal deficits in many countries leave little scope for policy stimulus in the next recession.
29
Report on
World Merchant Fleet
Average Age of the World Fleet
31
as at 1st August 2019 = 21.2 years
• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019
Average Age by Ship Type (Years) Average Age by Ship Size (Years)
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Tanker Bulkcarrier Containership/MPP
Gas Others Total
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Global Fleet < 2,000GT Global Fleet >=2,000GT
Note (1): Includes all vessels in these categories above 100 GT.
Note (2): Average age is calculated using number of vessels. Calculations are based on year and month of build.
Global Fleet
32
Fleet Size, Deliveries & Scrapping
• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019
Development of Global Fleet (million GT) Deliveries & Scrapping of Global Fleet (million GT)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Au
g-2
01
9
Fleet, End Year (LHS) % Growth (RHS)
Note (1): Includes all vessels above 100 GT. Note (2) 2019* = year-to-date.
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
*
Millio
ns
Deliveries Demolitions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
<=
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Builder Country: China Builder Country: Other
Fleet Age Profile
33
Today’s World Fleet by Year of Delivery
• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019
Note (1): Includes all vessels above 100 GT.
Million GT - split by build country China / rest of the World
Cruise Fleet
34
Cruise Fleet Size, Deliveries & Scrapping
• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019
Development of Cruise Fleet (No. of Vessels) Development of Cruise Fleet (million GT)
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
*
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
*
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
Note (1): 2019* = year-to-date.
World Fleet Ownership
35
Ownership of The World Fleet by Region
• Source: Clarksons Research, March 2019
Long Term Regional Fleet Development (start-year) Regional Ownership – Start 2019
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
mGT
Europe Americas China Japan Korea Other Asia/Pacific Others
% Chinese owned
% Japanese owned
Note (1): Includes all vessels above 100 GT.
Greece
17%
Germany
5%
Other Europe
20%
United States
5%Other Americas
3%
China
13%
Japan
13%
Korea
4%
Other Asia/Pacific
16%
Others
4%
Notes
• Going forward, the orderbook will be influenced by delays, cancellations and the re-
negotiation of contracts. Due to these technical and contractual issues, there is currently
considerable uncertainty surrounding the orderbook.
• The figures quoted here relate to the orderbook as at 1st August 2019 and take no account
for these potential delivery problems.
36
Total Size of Newbuilding Order book
• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019
Share of Orderbook (No. of Vessels) Share of Orderbook (CGT)
Average Size of Ship on Order (‘000 CGT)
0
10
20
30
40
50
P.R.
China
South
Korea
Japan Taiwan Other
Asia
Europe Brazil USA Others
P.R. China South Korea
Japan Taiwan
Other Asia Europe
Brazil USA
Others
P.R. China South Korea
Japan Taiwan
Other Asia Europe
Brazil USA
Others
as at 1st August 2019 = 3,987 vessels of 78.8 million CGT
Total Value of Newbuilding Order book
37
as at 1st August 2019 = US$222.57 billion (Contracted Values)
• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019
Value of Orderbook by Vessel Type (US$ billion) Value of Orderbook by Country / Region of Build (US$ billion)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Ta
nke
rs
Bu
lkca
rrie
rs
Co
nta
ine
r/
MP
P Ga
s
Ro
Ro
/P
CC
Oth
er
Ca
rgo
Cru
ise
/F
err
y
Tu
gs/D
red
ge
rs
Off
sh
ore
/O
the
r
Co
mb
os 0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
P.R
. C
hin
a
So
uth
Ko
rea
Jap
an
Ta
iwa
n
Oth
er
Asia
Eu
rop
e
Bra
zil
US
A
Oth
ers
38
Market Cycle Still Edging Forwards
• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Overview
ClarkSea Index: Historical View (US$’000/day)
ClarkSea Index: January 2009 – Present (US$’000/day)
• The ClarkSea Index is a weighted average of earnings for all the main commercial vessel types, where
the weighting is based on the number of vessels in each fleet sector.
• Historical averages:
1980s average: $8,500/day
1990s average: $12,019/day
2000-2008 average: $23,448/day
• Record highs before the economic downturn:
December 14, 2007: $50,714/day
• Rates in many markets have been at relatively low levels for over a decade:
2009-2019 average: $11,785/day
2017 average: $10,767/day
2018 average: $12,144/day
2019 ytd average: $12,334/day
• Record low as of August 2019:
August 19, 2016: $7,073/day
• Latest ClarkSea Index rate:
16th August 2019: $16,265/day
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
-20
09
Jul-2
00
9
Jan
-20
10
Jul-2
01
0
Jan
-20
11
Jul-2
01
1
Jan
-20
12
Jul-2
01
2
Jan
-20
13
Jul-2
01
3
Jan
-20
14
Jul-2
01
4
Jan
-20
15
Jul-2
01
5
Jan
-20
16
Jul-2
01
6
Jan
-20
17
Jul-2
01
7
Jan
-20
18
Jul-2
01
8
Jan
-20
19
Jul-2
01
9
World Seaborne Trade & the World Economy
39
• Source: Clarksons Research / IMF, August 2019
Seaborne Trade per Capita
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
(f)
20
20
(f)
ton
ne
s p
er p
ers
on
billio
n t
on
ne
s
Seaborne Trade (LHS) Trade per Capital (RHS)
Milestone 1: 2000
Trade passes 1 tonne
per person
Milestone 2: 2013
Trade reaches 10bn tonnes
Milestone 3: 2017
Trade reaches 1.5 tonnes per
person
71% Seaborne,
16% Airborne,
13% by land (2018)
2 Adult moose 1500
kg ! For every man
woman and child in the
World !!!
Large Adult moose
750 kg
40
41
Total Losses 2001-2018
Source: IUMI 2019 Casualty and World Fleet Statistics
Clarksons Research
As a % of World Fleet (Vessels > 500 GT)
Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services
Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
in % of Vessels in % of GT
After downward trend Total
Losses now stabilising at approx
0.14% of vessel numbers and
0.5% of GT
Source: IHS – Shipping and shipbuilding 2019 outlook
33
Some bright outlooks for majority of the fleets, but trade war and IMO 2020 preparations will dominate 2019
42
Report on
Offshore Energy Outlook
44
Dayrates Responding To Increased Activity In Some Areas
• Source: Clarksons Research
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Clarksons Offshore Rate Index (LHS) Brent Blend USD (RHS)
Clarksons Offshore Rates Index
Offshore Energy Markets: Executive Summary
The Clarksons Research
Offshore Index reached 55.5 by
mid-year, 12% up on the start
of 2019.
Rig Market Overview: Supply And Demand
45
Signs Of Stabilisation And Growth
• Source: Clarksons Research
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan
-80
Jan
-82
Jan
-84
Jan
-86
Jan
-88
Jan
-90
Jan
-92
Jan
-94
Jan
-96
Jan
-98
Jan
-00
Jan
-02
Jan
-04
Jan
-06
Jan
-08
Jan
-10
Jan
-12
Jan
-14
Jan
-16
Jan
-18
Demand (LHS) Utilisation (RHS)
Jack-Up And Floater Fleet
Rig Market Overview: Prices And Rates
46
Slight Upward Movements In Rates, But Prices Still Depressed
• Source: Clarksons Research
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
Jan
-18
Jan
-19
5-10yr Old Jack-Up 1980s built Jack-Up 6th Gen Floater
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan
-96
Jan
-98
Jan
-00
Jan
-02
Jan
-04
Jan
-06
Jan
-08
Jan
-10
Jan
-12
Jan
-14
Jan
-16
Jan
-18
High Spec Jack-Up Low Spec Jack-Up Ultra-Deep Floater
Deepwater Floater Midwater Floater
Average Rig Secondhand Prices - $m Average Rig Dayrates - $,000/day
Rig Market Overview: Activity Trends
47
Some Progress In Both Sectors
• Source: Clarksons Research
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
Jan
-18
Jan
-19
Utilis
atio
n
No
. A
cti
ve
Un
its
Jack-Ups Semi-Subs Drillships
Jack-Up Utilisation Floater Utilisation
Demand And Utilisation DEMAND August 2018 August 2019%
Change
Jack-Ups 332 353 +6%
Utilisation 70% 74% +4pp
Floaters 138 147 +7%
Utilisation 70% 74% +4pp
Total Rigs 470 500 +6%
Utilisation 70% 74% +4pp
ACTIVE SUPPLY August 2018 August 2019%
Change
Jack-Ups 473 480 +1%
Floaters 198 199 +1%
Total Rigs 671 679 +1%
Jack-Up Markets In North America
48
Signs Of Renewed Shallow Water Activity In Mexico
• Source: Clarksons Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
Jan
-18
Jan
-19
Utilis
atio
nNo
. U
nit
s
Supply Demand Utilisation
US GoM Jack-Up MarketMexican GoM Jack-Up Market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
Jan
-18
Jan
-19
Utilis
atio
nNo
. U
nit
s
Supply Demand Utilisation
49
Asia Pacific
Middle East/ISC
North West Europe
Mediterranean
S&C America
West Africa
Active
92%
Idle
8%
3Units
4Units
51Units
53Units
Global FPSO Fleet*
Active 186 units
Laid-Up 25 units
Total 211 units
64Units
North America
Active
100%
9Units
Active
96%
Idle
4%
27Units
Active
100%
Active
77%
Idle
23%
Activ
e
92%
Idle
8%
• Source: Clarksons Research
Active
75%
Idle
25%
FIDs and awards have
been picking up. For
further information and
forecasts, please contact
Clarksons Research.
Global FPSO Deployment
World Fleet and Energy Summary
• Average age of World Fleet is rising
• Proportion of Blue water fleet that is Chinese built is increasing
• Chinese Vessel ownership growing
• Signs of slight recovery in Freight Market
• Chinese New building dominates in number of units however in orderbook value the European yards lead with the ever growing Cruise market .. But for how long ?
• Total losses are no longer falling but seem to have stabilized at around 0.14% of the World Fleet
• Rig utilization continued to make progress with jack up demand showing steady improvement
• Economic uncertainty prevails
50