welcome ! q2 2015-16 performance - rallis india · 2015-10-27 · some crops like cotton, paddy saw...

Copyright © Rallis India Limited. All rights reserved.

Welcome !

Q2 2015-16

Performance

V Shankar26 October 2015


Consolidated results to stock exchange

Copyright © Rallis India Limited. All rights reserved.6

Consolidated results to stock exchange


Financial Performance : Key Highlights Rs Crs

Q 2

14-15

Q 2

15-16

Net Sales 635.9 499.7

Profit before tax (bei) 107.5 83.6

Net Profit After Tax

(After MI)73.4 57.2

H1

14-15

H1

15-16

Net Sales 1,101.3 963.3

Profit before tax (bei)155.9 125.6

Net Profit After Tax

(after MI)110.4 90.3

Consolidated


8

Domestic Business


Domestic Season

Live Mint

TIMES OF INDIA


16%

-17%

-23%-26%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

Monthly Rainfall % as compared to LPA

How it Rained this Monsoon


Second consecutive year of Deficiency

August Onwards, it was

completely a dry period till

end of the season

India’s average rainfall 3rd

lowest in 36 years

A long Dry spell in July after

whopping rainfall in June

Year 2015 was the first back-to-back drought for India in three decades, and only the fourth in more than a century.

2015 Southwest monsoon

ends with 14% deficit,

(760.6 mm of rainfall v/s

normal average of 887.5

mm.) weakest since 2009.IMD forecast- 12% deficit.Skymet forecast- 2% surplus; revised to 2% deficit last month.


Poor Monsoon in key geographies

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Affected Areas- Central & Southern part of the country where the business share of Rallis is high


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

17

-Ju

n

24

-Ju

n

01

-Ju

l

08

-Ju

l

15

-Ju

l

22

-Ju

l

29

-Ju

l

05

-Au

g

12

-Au

g

19

-Au

g

26

-Au

g

02

-Se

p

09

-Se

p

16

-Se

p

23

-Se

p

30

-Se

p

Uttar Pradesh – (-46 %) deficient

Uttar pradesh East Uttar PradeshUttar pradesh West Uttar Pradesh

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

17-J

un

24-J

un

01-J

ul

08-J

ul

15-J

ul

22-J

ul

29-J

ul

05-A

ug

12-A

ug

19-A

ug

26-A

ug

02-S

ep

09-S

ep

16-S

ep

23-S

ep

30-S

ep

Maharashtra – (-26%) deficient

Konkan & Goa Madhya MaharashtraMarathwada

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

17

-Ju

n

24

-Ju

n

01

-Ju

l

08

-Ju

l

15

-Ju

l

22

-Ju

l

29

-Ju

l

05

-Au

g

12

-Au

g

19

-Au

g

26

-Au

g

02

-Se

p

09

-Se

p

16

-Se

p

23

-Se

p

30

-Se

p

Andhra and Telangana - (-8% ) deficient.

Telangana Rayalaseema

-55

-35

-15

5

25

45

65

17

-Ju

n

24

-Ju

n

01

-Ju

l

08

-Ju

l

15

-Ju

l

22

-Ju

l

29

-Ju

l

05

-Au

g

12

-Au

g

19

-Au

g

26

-Au

g

02

-Se

p

09

-Se

p

16

-Se

p

23

-Se

p

30

-Se

p

Karnataka – (- 20%) deficient

Coastal Karnataka North Interior Karnataka

South Interior Karnataka

Maharashtra, UP and Karnataka account for close to 30% of India’s Kharif foodgrain production

Worst drought in 40 years

Major Areas Impacted

Source: Crisil reports.


Sowing Progress of all Crops

319

502

627

729

820882

928976 998 1021 1033 1041

182

257

346

533

706

803877

935966 987 999 1015

1021

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

04

-Ju

l

06

-Ju

l

08

-Ju

l

10

-Ju

l

12

-Ju

l

14

-Ju

l

16

-Ju

l

18

-Ju

l

20

-Ju

l

22

-Ju

l

24

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

28

-Ju

l

30

-Ju

l

01

-Au

g

03

-Au

g

05

-Au

g

07

-Au

g

09

-Au

g

11

-Au

g

13

-Au

g

15

-Au

g

17

-Au

g

19

-Au

g

21

-Au

g

23

-Au

g

25

-Au

g

27

-Au

g

29

-Au

g

31

-Au

g

02

-Se

p

04

-Se

p

06

-Se

p

08

-Se

p

10

-Se

p

12

-Se

p

14

-Se

p

16

-Se

p

18

-Se

p

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Excess Rainfall in June helped to increase in Sowing

August onwards it went on decreasing to remain same as LY

In Lakh Hectares

Source: PTI.


Sowing Progress of Key Crops

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

COTTON

2015-16 2014-15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

PADDY

2015-16 2014-15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

PULSES

2015-16 2014-15

020406080

100120140160180200

5th

Ju

ne

12

th J

un

e

19

th J

un

e

26

th J

un

e

3rd

Ju

ly

10

th J

uly

17

th J

uly

24

th J

uly

31

st J

uly

7th

Au

gust

14

th A

ugu

st

21

st A

ugu

st

28

th A

ugu

st

4th

Se

pt

11

th S

ep

t

18

th S

ep

t

24

th S

ep

t

1st

Oct

OIL SEEDS

2015-16 2014-15

Pace of the sowing came down due to rainfall shortage

Source: PTI.


Commodity Prices- Domestic

Source: PTI.


Q2 Summary

Excellent start of the monsoon, June received excess rain of 16% August Onwards, it was completely a dry period till end of the season Back to back drought year in past three decades

Initial good rain helped for a good start of the sowing but later it

slowed down and maintained at last year total

Some crops like cotton, paddy saw re-sowing

Cotton acreages came down due to drought in many areas

Farmers avoided multiple sprays due to worse crop conditions

In anticipation of low produce, overall spend on the crops was less

Low MSP & decreasing commodity prices lowered farm income

Distress among farmer community lead to weaker trade

sentiments

Trade was conservative with credit terms to channel/farmer

Increase in inventory triggered price cuts


18

International Business


International Crop Prices

The prices of commodities are falling fast. In August they reachedtheir lowest level for eight years, down by over 41% from theirpeak in 2011.

Source: Business standard.


Brazil Market

Brazil Mega drought 2015 has been an ongoing drought – Worst in last 80 years.

Business for Brazil is impacted on account high inventory at Market place.

Historic currency devaluation in Brazil – Imports turn expensive.

Recorded drop of 25% in Brazil Agro Chem market in H1 2015

Source: Agropages.com and Rallis Internal research.


21

Looking Ahead

Copyright © Rallis India Limited. All rights reserved. 22

Parameter Outlook

Crops

• Rains towards the end of September & beginning of October

may encourage Rabi sowing.

• All Pulses are expected to be better than last year.

• Reservoir levels are at 61% of previous year, may impact Rabi

paddy acreages

Industry• High inventories & receivables

• Focus on liquidation.

Domestic • Domestic market expected to have tight cash cycle.

International• Inventory levels expected to liquidate

• Improvements in commodity prices to watched closely.

Outlook for Q3


Rallis – Pillars of growth

23

welcome ! q2 2015-16 performance - rallis india · 2015-10-27 · some crops like cotton, paddy saw...

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