weekly system status report 2020 w13 - eskom · 2020-04-06 · eskom holdings soc ltd reg no...

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5 Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 13 (23/03/2020 – 29/03/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Date Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Mon 23/Mar/2020 32,040 535 29,764 30,019 6.7% 8.5% -0.8% Tue 24/Mar/2020 31,528 898 29,843 29,906 5.4% 8.4% -0.2% Wed 25/Mar/2020 31,168 315 29,030 27,557 13.1% 14.2% 5.3% Thu 26/Mar/2020 32,135 318 28,502 23,593 36.2% 37.6% 20.8% Fri 27/Mar/2020 34,237 0 26,222 23,830 43.7% 43.7% 10.0% Sat 28/Mar/2020 29,096 488 21,363 23,265 25.1% 27.2% -8.2% Sun 29/Mar/2020 29,663 486 22,362 22,917 29.4% 31.6% -2.4% Date Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) RSA Contracted Load Forecast (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Mon 23/Mar/2020 33,364 535 30,969 31,344 6.4% 8.2% -1.2% Tue 24/Mar/2020 32,264 898 31,101 30,641 5.3% 8.2% 1.5% Wed 25/Mar/2020 32,718 315 30,295 29,107 12.4% 13.5% 4.1% Thu 26/Mar/2020 34,270 318 30,291 25,728 33.2% 34.4% 17.7% Fri 27/Mar/2020 35,247 0 27,560 24,841 41.9% 41.9% 10.9% Sat 28/Mar/2020 30,653 488 22,539 24,822 23.5% 25.5% -9.2% Sun 29/Mar/2020 31,053 486 23,759 24,307 27.8% 29.8% -2.3% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. 2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. 3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. 4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). 5. These figures do not include any demand side products. 6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.

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Page 1: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w13 - Eskom · 2020-04-06 · Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5 Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 13 (23/03/2020 –

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5

Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 13 (23/03/2020 – 29/03/2020)

Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand

DateAvailable

Dispatchable Generation (MW)

Non-commercial Generation (MW)

Residual Load Forecast (MW)

Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl

IOS

Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)

Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-

Commercial Units)

Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand)

Mon 23/Mar/2020 32,040 535 29,764 30,019 6.7% 8.5% -0.8%Tue 24/Mar/2020 31,528 898 29,843 29,906 5.4% 8.4% -0.2%Wed 25/Mar/2020 31,168 315 29,030 27,557 13.1% 14.2% 5.3%Thu 26/Mar/2020 32,135 318 28,502 23,593 36.2% 37.6% 20.8%Fri 27/Mar/2020 34,237 0 26,222 23,830 43.7% 43.7% 10.0%Sat 28/Mar/2020 29,096 488 21,363 23,265 25.1% 27.2% -8.2%

Sun 29/Mar/2020 29,663 486 22,362 22,917 29.4% 31.6% -2.4%

DateTotal Available Generation Incl

Renewables (MW)

Non-commercial Generation (MW)

RSA Contracted

Load Forecast (MW)

Actual RSA Contracted Demand

(MW) Incl IOS

Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)

Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-

Commercial Units)

Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted

Demand)

Mon 23/Mar/2020 33,364 535 30,969 31,344 6.4% 8.2% -1.2%Tue 24/Mar/2020 32,264 898 31,101 30,641 5.3% 8.2% 1.5%Wed 25/Mar/2020 32,718 315 30,295 29,107 12.4% 13.5% 4.1%Thu 26/Mar/2020 34,270 318 30,291 25,728 33.2% 34.4% 17.7%Fri 27/Mar/2020 35,247 0 27,560 24,841 41.9% 41.9% 10.9%Sat 28/Mar/2020 30,653 488 22,539 24,822 23.5% 25.5% -9.2%

Sun 29/Mar/2020 31,053 486 23,759 24,307 27.8% 29.8% -2.3% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all

emergency generation resources.

2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables.

3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation.

4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units).

5. These figures do not include any demand side products.

6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.

Page 2: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w13 - Eskom · 2020-04-06 · Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5 Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 13 (23/03/2020 –

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 2 of 5

Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Sent Out 3,672 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -13.54 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -1.76 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 13 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics

Year 01 Jan to 29 Mar Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 56,073 229,552 GWh2016 54,918 226,721 GWh2017 53,296 225,203 GWh2018 53,401 224,202 GWh2019 52,085 219,578 GWh

2020 (YTD) 51,795 GWh

Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics

Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Demand 3,675 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -13.55 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -1.36 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 13 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year 01 Jan to 29 Mar Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 56,465 231,154 GWh2016 54,940 226,808 GWh2017 53,292 225,248 GWh2018 53,430 224,594 GWh2019 52,730 220,939 GWh

2020 (YTD) 52,644 GWh

Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Demand 3,912 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -11.79 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -1.40 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 13 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year 01 Jan to 29 Mar Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 58,103 239,545 GWh2016 57,457 238,069 GWh2017 56,362 235,426 GWh2018 56,152 235,482 GWh2019 55,682 232,526 GWh

2020 (YTD) 55,537 GWh

Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 3 of 5

Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 29,621 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -0.75 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -0.29 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 13 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Tue 28-Jul-2015 33,343 MW2016 Thu 04-Aug-2016 34,181 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,457 MW2018 Mon 16-Jul-2018 34,256 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,066 MW

2020 (YTD) Tue 17-Mar-2020 29,759 MW

Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics

Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 30,019 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -0.31 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 1.34 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 13 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,145 MW2016 Thu 07-Jul-2016 34,488 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,517 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 34,907 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,746 MW

2020 (YTD) Thu 12-Mar-2020 30,568 MW

Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 31,346 MWWeek-on-Week Growth 1.26 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 0.71 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 13 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,499 MW2016 Mon 30-May-2016 34,913 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,769 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 35,345 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 34,510 MW

2020 (YTD) Thu 12-Mar-2020 31,662 MW

Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 4 of 5

Risk Level Description

Green Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves.Yellow < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves

Orange 1 001MW – 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand

Red > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves

MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MWWeek Start Week RSA

Contracted Forecast

Residual Forecast

Available Dispatchable

Capacity

Available Capacity (Less

OR and UA)

Planned Maintenance

Unplanned Outage

Assumption (UA)

Planned Risk Level

(-14200 MW)

Likely Risk Senario

(-16200 MW)30-Mar-20 14 25697 24085 36701 22501 11821 12000 -1584 -358406-Apr-20 15 25386 24125 37012 23812 11510 11000 -314 -231413-Apr-20 16 27794 26756 43076 29876 5446 11000 3119 111920-Apr-20 17 32054 31017 43134 29934 5388 11000 -1083 -308327-Apr-20 18 31403 30365 42906 29706 5616 11000 -660 -266004-May-20 19 32745 31846 44918 31718 3604 11000 -129 -212911-May-20 20 33389 32491 44838 31638 3684 11000 -854 -285418-May-20 21 33406 32508 45077 31877 3445 11000 -631 -263125-May-20 22 34655 33757 45762 32562 2760 11000 -1196 -319601-Jun-20 23 33641 32578 46192 32992 2330 11000 413 -158708-Jun-20 24 33860 32797 44874 31674 3648 11000 -1124 -312415-Jun-20 25 33807 32743 45410 32210 3112 11000 -534 -253422-Jun-20 26 34153 33090 45410 32210 3112 11000 -880 -288029-Jun-20 27 34238 33192 44211 31011 4311 11000 -2181 -4181

Weekly Generation Availability

52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 YTD 2019

Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 57.52 56.72 61.10 62.96 61.33 60.43 61.09 62.46 63.67 62.75 63.14 61.99 64.25 65.32 60.11 66.93

Planned Outage Factor 12.37 11.49 9.72 10.37 8.15 10.60 11.77 12.50 10.00 10.25 8.91 11.00 9.59 11.30 21.54 9.94

Unplanned Outage Factor 27.85 29.90 26.54 24.34 29.18 27.76 25.49 24.14 25.41 25.93 26.65 25.60 25.03 22.34 17.28 21.57

Other Outage Factor 2.26 1.89 2.64 2.33 1.34 1.21 1.65 0.90 0.92 1.07 1.30 1.41 1.13 1.04 1.07 1.56

Criterion measured in percentageWeek Annual (Jan - Dec)

EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week) Three Month Outlook This is the forecast demand vs. available generating capacity for each week for 3 months ahead. Colour codes ranging from Green (no shortage) to Red (worst case) are used to indicate the absence or presence of a capacity constraint.

Notes - Assumptions critical: The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This “likely risk scenario” includes an additional 2000 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected imports at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly residual peak forecast, which excludes the expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve (OR) from Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 12 000 MW (UA 11 000MW April 2020 onwards) Reserves: OR + UA = 14 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 47 517 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 48 522 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa). Key:

Medium Term Peak Demand/Capacity Forecast Please go to the link below for the Medium-term System Adequacy Outlook - 2020 to 2024. Download the Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2020 to 2024 (Published 30 October 2019).

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 5 of 5

500.01,739.22,079.84,340.7

Current Installed Capacity (MW)CSPPV

Wind (Eskom+IPP)Total (Incl other REs)

Renewable Energy Statistics Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning

Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)

Maximum 502.1 1,513.3 1,902.3 3,530.6

Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 23-Feb-2020 12:00 02-Oct-2018 16:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00

Maximum 200.9 1,350.5 1,229.8 2,576.3

Max Date 11-Aug-2016 14:00 16-Dec-2016 12:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00

Maximum 302.0 1,432.5 1,708.2 3,142.7

Max Date 07-Nov-2017 10:00 27-Oct-2017 12:00 25-Dec-2017 18:00 13-Dec-2017 13:00

Maximum 399.7 1,392.1 1,902.3 3,298.9

Max Date 04-Dec-2018 16:00 03-Oct-2018 12:00 02-Oct-2018 16:00 28-Sep-2018 11:00

Maximum 502.1 1,375.6 1,872.0 3,530.6

Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 19-Jan-2019 12:00 14-Dec-2019 15:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00

Maximum 500.2 1,513.3 1,703.6 3,398.5

Max Date 27-Jan-2020 14:00 23-Feb-2020 12:00 19-Jan-2020 20:00 26-Jan-2020 13:00

Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)

Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

Maximum

Annual

Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945

6,951,2612016Total

Energy529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771

2017Total

Energy687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632

10,887,9022018Total

Energy1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095

2019Total

Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945

3,267,7142020Total

Energy476,805 999,379 1,767,528

Cal Year Indicator Total (Incl other REs)

Maximum 1,464

Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019

Maximum 828

Max Date 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016

Maximum 1,038

Max Date 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017

Maximum 1,336

Max Date 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018

Maximum 1,464

Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019

Maximum 1,052

Max Date 26-Jan-2020 to 27-Jan-2020

Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) -

based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020