weekly nanos party power index tracking (period ending october

Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking (period ending October 18th, 2013)

released October 23rd , 2013

www.nanosresearch.com 2

Analysis (Released 10/23/2013)

The latest weekly tracking on the Nanos Party Power Index for federal parties completed on

October 18, 2013 by Nanos Research suggests that the Liberal brand equity remains

stronger than the Conservatives (Liberal Party Power Index Score 59, Conservative Party

Power Index Score 54), but that the Conservative brand power has been trending up

leading up to the Speech from the Throne.

With the exception of the Tories, the national Party Power Index scores remain stable with

the NDP at 47 and the Green Party at 32.

A score above 50 on the diffusion index suggests a net positive draw for a political party.

The improvement in Tory brand power, although still trailing the Liberals, has largely been

driven by improved index scores among women over the past six weeks.

Of note, although the Conservatives have not significantly improved their numbers in terms

of the percentage of Canadians who would consider voting for them, Stephen Harper’s

personal numbers have incrementally improved since early September and he is now in a

tight race with Justin Trudeau on the best PM measure.

The accessible voter pool for each of the parties remains relatively stable with 50 percent of

Canadians saying they would consider voting Liberal, followed by the NDP at 43 percent,

the Conservatives at 41 percent, and the Green Party at 26 percent. The accessible voter

pool for the BQ in Quebec continues to erode and is now at 28 percent of Quebecers.


Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to

think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills

this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.

The Nanos Party Power Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brands

based on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions

include:

• a ballot question that captures the 1st and 2nd vote preferences;

• a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party;

• the 1st and 2nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and,

• whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader.

The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each

party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength

and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of

brand strength for the party and its leader at this time.

The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand

strength or weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to

another.

58 59

52

54

48 47

33 32

31

26

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc


Canada Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=1,000)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada

is based on a composite of the following public

opinion measures: the national ballot, which party

individuals would consider voting for, the top two

choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party

leader has good leadership qualities.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237

Washington DC: (202) 697-9924

[email protected]

Download our app to get the

latest Nanos Numbers

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Party Power Index Tracking by Region



British Columbia Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=152)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for BC is

based on a composite of the following public opinion

measures: the national ballot, which party individuals

would consider voting for, the top two choices for

Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has

good leadership qualities. There are wider margins

of accuracy for regional subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

60

65

50 50

49

43

38

36

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Liberal Conservative NDP Green




54

49

62

66

38

41

33

30

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70



Prairies Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=200)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the

Prairies is based on a composite of the following

public opinion measures: the national ballot, which

party individuals would consider voting for, the top two


leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider

margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]





Ontario Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=300)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Ontario





leader has good leadership qualities. There are

wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

58

62

57 58

43

43

33 33

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65





57

56

39

41

58 58

32 31

31

26

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



Quebec Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=248)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Quebec





leader has good leadership qualities. There are


Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




62

67

49

53

55

49

32 32

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75



Atlantic Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=100)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the

Atlantic is based on a composite of the following


party individuals would consider voting for, the top

two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each

party leader has good leadership qualities. There are


Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




Party Power Index Tracking by Age


56

61

57

52

48

38 36

33

30

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



18 to 29 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=205)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 18 to

29 age group is based on a composite of the following





margins of accuracy for age subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]






The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 30 to 39

age group is based on a composite of the following






Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

58

62

51 52

46 47

37

32

30

27

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65





60 64

52

55

43

45

31

33

31 26

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65




The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 40 to

49 age group is based on a composite of the following



choices for PM, and whether each party leader has

good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of

accuracy for age subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




59 58

49

51 50

49

32 32

30

24

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60




The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 50 to 59

age group is based on a composite of the following






Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]





60 plus Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=239)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 60 plus

age group is based on a composite of the following public


individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices

for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has


accuracy for age subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

55

51 54

54

49 46

30 30

29

24

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60





Party Power Index Tracking by Gender


57 58

56 56

47 47

31

30 29

23 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



Male Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=470)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for males is






accuracy for gender subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




58

59

47

52

49

47

35 35

32

30

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



Female Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=530)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for females is






accuracy for gender subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




National Vote Considerations Tracking



National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=1,000)

Question: For each of the following federal

political parties, please tell me if you would

consider or not consider voting for it.

[RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

42% 40% 39% 38% 39%

38% 39% 40% 38%

40% 41% 41%

52%

50% 51% 51% 50% 52% 50% 49% 51% 49% 50% 50%

6% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 10% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-17 2013-08-31 2013-09-14 2013-09-28 2013-10-12

Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure








[RANDOMIZE] NDP

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

58%

43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 43% 44% 43%

30% 47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 46% 44% 45% 45% 46%

48%

12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-17 2013-08-31 2013-09-14 2013-09-28 2013-10-12

Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure









[RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

62%

51% 51% 50% 50% 50% 49% 51% 52% 52% 51% 50%

26% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 38% 38%

36% 37% 39%

12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-17 2013-08-31 2013-09-14 2013-09-28 2013-10-12

Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure






Question: For each of the following

federal political parties, please tell me if

you would consider or not consider voting

for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

35%

42% 42% 44%

40% 38% 37% 37%

35%

30% 30% 28%

52%

49% 50% 49% 51% 53% 53% 55%

59% 64% 64% 64%

13% 9% 8% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 6% 6% 6% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-17 2013-08-31 2013-09-14 2013-09-28 2013-10-12

Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure

Quebec only – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=248)








[RANDOMIZE] Green Party

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

38%

28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 25% 24%

26% 26% 26% 26%

46%

63% 62% 62% 61% 62% 63% 63% 62% 62% 63% 64%

16% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-17 2013-08-31 2013-09-14 2013-09-28 2013-10-12

Would consider voting Green Would not consider voting Green Unsure





National Leadership Tracking



Question: Of the current federal political

party leaders, could you please rank your

top two current local preferences for

Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY

LEADERS]

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

30% 32%

29% 31%

17% 16%

1% 1%

6% 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Stephen Harper (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP)

Daniel Paillé (BQ) Elizabeth May (Green)

National – Weekly Tracking – First Ranked Choice (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=1,000)






political party leaders, do you think they have

or do not have the qualities to be a good

political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Stephen

Harper

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

55% 53% 52% 51% 50% 52% 52%

54% 55% 57% 57%

38% 40% 41% 42% 42% 40% 39% 36% 36% 35% 34%

7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-24 2013-09-07 2013-09-21 2013-10-05 2013-10-19

Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure









political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas

Mulcair

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

45% 44% 46% 45% 44% 44% 43% 44% 43% 44% 44%

30% 30% 28% 28% 28% 27% 28% 27% 28% 29% 29%

25% 26% 26% 26% 27% 29% 29% 30% 29% 28% 26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-24 2013-09-07 2013-09-21 2013-10-05 2013-10-19










political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin

Trudeau

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

55% 55% 55% 54% 54% 54% 57% 57% 58% 57% 57%

29% 28% 29% 31% 29% 29% 27% 25% 24% 26% 27%

16% 16% 16% 15% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 17% 17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-24 2013-09-07 2013-09-21 2013-10-05 2013-10-19










political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Daniel Paillé

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

23% 24% 22% 23% 25%

22% 21% 18%

15% 18%

19%

40% 39% 43% 43%

46%

44% 46% 46%

48%

50% 47%

37% 38% 35% 34% 29% 34% 33% 36% 38% 33% 34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-24 2013-09-07 2013-09-21 2013-10-05 2013-10-19


National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 18, 2013, n=248)








political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

31% 32% 32% 31% 30%

28% 29% 30% 31% 31% 32%

43% 41% 41% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 40% 39% 40%

26% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 29% 30% 29% 29% 28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-24 2013-09-07 2013-09-21 2013-10-05 2013-10-19






Methodology


Survey Methodology


The Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation,

headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based

on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians (land- and cell-lines), using a four week

rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of

1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The

interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the

oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views

of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to

100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand

strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this

time.

The current report is based on a four week rolling average of Canadian opinion ending October

18, 2013.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus,

19 times out of 20.





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Nik Nanos FMRIA

Chairman, Nanos Research Group

Ottawa (613) 234-4666 ext. 237

Washington DC (202) 697-9924

[email protected]

weekly nanos party power index tracking (period ending october

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