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weekly football tip sheet

ISSUE 13nfl week 12

college football week 13

VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

With the football season cruising along, and the Thanksgiving Holiday rapidly approaching, we at the Vegas Insider Football Weekly would like to take this time to announce that once again we will be publishing our spectacular bowl game guide for coming season. We have secured the services of Steve Makinen once again to head the project. Steve and the rest of our normal team had a huge bowl season last year, and shared all of their thoughts and handicapping resources with readers in one 80+ page

tipsheet covering all 35 bowl games. In fact, Steve alone was a sparkling 16-4 ATS (80%) on bowl game best bets!!! Look for much of the same this year, as the 2014-15 Vegas Insider Bowl Guide will be available for download the week of the first bowl games, on or around Monday, December 15th. Be sure to stay tuned for that.

Back to the here and now however, thanks for downloading Week 13 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly. We are excited this week as our guys finally are coming around, with another week of winning Best Bets to stand on. Combined, the guys were 5-4 ATS in both college and pro, and best yet, the guys at the top of the standings continue to do well, while the one bringing up the rear in both levels continues to provide fade material for readers. VI Jim is now a season high 12-games over .500 on best bets combined.

For week 13, we have all of the normal stuff on tap, plus a college football feature article looking at key stats and how they relate to against the spread results. A number of readers asked for us to dig a little deeper on the material, and we did just that for you. Included with more detailed records of the various stat categories are some different systems that you can employ in the coming weeks, along with the qualifying plays on one of those angles for this coming weekend’s games. Our NFL feature has Jim commenting on each team’s current Super Bowl odds.

Both the NFL and College Football schedules are loaded with big games this weekend, and it starts early as far the feature contests, as our guys start selections a bit early, with Wednesday night MAC game featuring Bowling and Toledo. That game shows the Rockets as a 7-point favorite, a trend for this week, as all but one of our feature games in the college ranks show lines single digits.

Thanks for downloading this week’s issue and for your continued support of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly. As always we welcome your feedback. Best of luck from the entire Vegas Insider Staff on another full weekend of great football action!

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule ......................................................................2NFL VI Picks ...................................................................................3NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown ......................................4NFL Top Weekly Trends ................................................................5 NFL Strength Ratings ...................................................................6 NFL Matchups ..............................................................................7NFL Week 12 Tidbits ...................................................................12Football Line Moves ..................................................................14College Football VI Picks ..........................................................15College Football Strength Ratings ..........................................16College Football Head-to-Head Series Breakdown ..............18College Football Yards Per Attempt Study .............................22 College Football Matchups .....................................................24College Football Top Weekly Trends .......................................36

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


ROTATION SCHEDULE105 KENT ST 51 45 147 NORTHWESTERN -3 -1 197 FLA ATLANTIC 59.5 59.5

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPNU P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 106 BUFFALO -7 -7 148 PURDUE 50 50 198 MIDDLE TENN ST -6.5 -7107 BOWLING GREEN 64.5 64.5 149 W MICHIGAN 52.5 52.5 199 CINCINNATI -12 -10

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN2 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM CBSC108 TOLEDO -6.5 -6.5 150 C MICHIGAN 1 -1 200 CONNECTICUT 55.5 55.5

151 TULANE 56.5 56.5 201 LA MONROE -8 -8P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM

152 EAST CAROLINA -17 -18 202 NEW MEXICO ST 54.5 54.5109 KANSAS CITY -7 -7 153 BOSTON COLLEGE 54.5 56 203 SMU 47.5 47.5

P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNN110 OAKLAND 43 42.5 154 FLORIDA ST -20 -19 204 UCF -26 -28

155 PENN ST -6.5 -6.5 205 USC 60.5 60.5P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN2 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ABC

111 KANSAS ST 58.5 57 156 ILLINOIS 45.5 45 206 UCLA -3.5 -3.5P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM FOX 1 157 WISCONSIN -9.5 -10 207 FRESNO ST 62.5 62.5

112 WEST VIRGINIA -1 -2 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM ESPNU113 NORTH CAROLINA 66.5 66.5 158 IOWA 53 51.5 208 NEVADA -8 -7.5

P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPN 159 MARSHALL -20 -20 209 UNLV 51.5 54.5114 DUKE -7 -6 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM P: 8:00PM C: 10:00PM E: 11:00PM 115 ARKANSAS ST -6.5 -5 160 UAB 68 68 210 HAWAII -10 -10

P: 6:30PM C: 8:30PM E: 9:30PM ESPNU 161 LOUISIANA TECH -13 -12116 TEXAS ST UNIV 59 57.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

162 OLD DOMINION 69 67.5163 NEW MEXICO 62.5 64 251 CLEVELAND 46.5 47

P: 10:30AM C: 12:30PM E: 1:30PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 117 UTEP 53.5 53.5 164 COLORADO ST -21 -22 252 ATLANTA -3 -3

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM FOX 1 165 TX-SAN ANTONIO 57.5 57.5 253 TENNESSEE 48.5 48.5118 RICE -10 -8 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FSN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 119 AIR FORCE 49.5 50.5 166 W KENTUCKY -8 -9 254 PHILADELPHIA -11 -11

P: 6:30PM C: 8:30PM E: 9:30PM CBSC 167 BOISE ST -14 -13 255 DETROIT 48 47120 SAN DIEGO ST -3 -4 P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPN2 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 121 SAN JOSE ST 46.5 46.5 168 WYOMING 58.5 54 256 NEW ENGLAND -6 -6.5

P: 6:30PM C: 8:30PM E: 9:30PM ESPN2 169 TEXAS TECH 69.5 69.5 257 GREEN BAY -10 -9122 UTAH ST -12 -13 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM FSN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

170 IOWA ST -1.5 -1 258 MINNESOTA 48 48.5171 OLE MISS -3 -3 259 JACKSONVILLE 50 50.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBS P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 123 VIRGINIA TECH -14 -15 172 ARKANSAS 45.5 45.5 260 INDIANAPOLIS -14 -14

P: 9:30AM C: 11:30AM E: 12:30PM 173 OKLAHOMA ST 67.5 69 261 CINCINNATI 44 43.5124 WAKE FOREST 41.5 40 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM FOX P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 125 MIAMI FL -7 -6 174 BAYLOR -27 -28 262 HOUSTON -1 -1

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN2 175 TULSA 52.5 56.5 263 NY JETS 40 38.5126 VIRGINIA 52.5 49.5 P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 127 MISSOURI 47.5 47.5 176 HOUSTON -20 -20 264 BUFFALO -4 -4.5

P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM SEC 177 COLORADO 70 70 265 TAMPA BAY 48 46128 TENNESSEE -3 -3.5 P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM PAC12 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 129 S ALABAMA 55.5 55.5 178 OREGON -35 -35 266 CHICAGO -5.5 -5.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 179 LOUISVILLE 54.5 53 267 ARIZONA 42 41.5130 SOUTH CAROLINA -28 -28 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM NBC P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 131 E MICHIGAN 52.5 52.5 180 NOTRE DAME -4.5 -4 268 SEATTLE -6.5 -6.5

P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM 181 FLA INTERNATIONAL51.5 50.5 269 ST LOUIS 44.5 43.5132 BALL ST -17 -17 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 133 RUTGERS 59.5 58 182 NORTH TEXAS -3 -3 270 SAN DIEGO -6 -5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM BIG10 183 STANFORD -6.5 -5.5 271 MIAMI 49 48.5134 MICHIGAN ST -22 -22 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM FOX 1 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 135 MINNESOTA 56.5 56.5 184 CALIFORNIA 58.5 57.5 272 DENVER -8 -7

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN 185 APPALACHIAN ST 62.5 62.5 273 WASHINGTON 44.5 44136 NEBRASKA -11 -10 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 137 VANDERBILT 52.5 51 186 LA LAFAYETTE -11 -9.5 274 SAN FRANCISCO -9 -8

P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM SEC 187 ARIZONA 56.5 55 275 DALLAS -3 -3138 MISSISSIPPI ST -30 -30 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC139 INDIANA 65.5 65.5 188 UTAH -3 -4 276 NY GIANTS 47.5 47.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM BIG10 189 OREGON ST 55.5 54140 OHIO ST -34 -34 P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM PAC12 277 BALTIMORE 49.5 49.5141 MARYLAND 41.5 41.5 190 WASHINGTON -6.5 -6 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM BIG10 191 GEORGIA ST 57.5 57.5 278 NEW ORLEANS -3 -3142 MICHIGAN -4 -5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 143 KANSAS 56 54.5 192 CLEMSON -41 -41

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FOX 1 193 WASHINGTON ST 68 68144 OKLAHOMA -25 -25 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM PAC12 301 OHIO U -2.5 -2.5145 SYRACUSE 48.5 48.5 194 ARIZONA ST -17 -16 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPNU 195 SOUTH FLORIDA 46.5 46.5 302 MIAMI OHIO 49 49146 PITTSBURGH -7.5 -7.5 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM ESPNN 303 AKRON -5 -5

196 MEMPHIS -19 -19 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN2304 KENT ST 43.5 43.5

NFL WEEK 12 cont'd (Byes: CAR, PIT)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 14

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2014

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2014

COLLEGE FOOTBALL cont'dSATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2014

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2014

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13 COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2014SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2014WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2014

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2014

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2014NFL WEEK 12

COLLEGE FOOTBALL cont'd

COLLEGE FOOTBALL cont'd

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VI Jim says…The easy thing to assume in this huge NFC West tilt this weekend between Seattle and Arizona is that the defending champions have their back against the wall and will come out and play with something to prove on their home turf. That is the easy thing, the easy thing rarely wins. Let’s look at the truths of 2014 instead, as Arizona is playing gritty football, has the ability to strike big at anytime, has a defense that is among the best in football, and is playing with a chip on its shoulder. Alternatively, Seattle has internal issues, is feeling the effects of lost personnel in the offseason, and seems to have ceded some of its once powerful home field advantage. In fact, in the last three home outings against Dallas, Oakland, and the Giants, the Seahawks are just 1-2 ATS and struggled in the two outright wins. I expect a fiercely competitive game here that could go either way, 19-17. Arizona covers though.

VI Jason says…If there is one thing I know about NFL betting, it’s that nothing is ever as good as it seems nor as bad as it seems. Right now, Oakland’s offense looks atrocious, and the thought of even considering betting an over with them would be outrageous, right? Typically that’s the perfect time to strike. Kansas City is playing extremely well, but this is a major change in routine for both teams. I see nothing better that could happen for the Raiders’ offense here, as I actually expect them to reach or approach the…gasp…20-point mark in this one. Thursday’s have been great for OVER’s anyhow. Am I saying that I expect the Raiders to threaten the upset here? Not a chance, but I look for a high scoring tilt, say 31-17 Chiefs.

VI Paul says…It’s swiftly turning into another long season for the New York Giants. While the G-Men have very good talent as different positions, there is not enough to go around and it is time for a major shakeup for Big Blue. The Giants and their fans will undoubtedly be stoked for a Sunday night showdown for Dallas. Unfortunately the Cowboys are a terrible matchup the New Yorkers. The Giants have problems with the run, not every game mind up, just often enough. We know Dallas has arguably the best run-line in the NFL. The other defensive weakness of the Giants is deeper throws inside the hashmarks, leaving open the real possibility Jason Witten and Dez Bryant have monster games. Dallas by 13.

VI Jim 45-61 (42%) 18-14 (56%)*

VI Jason 51-55 (48%) 11-20 (35%)*

VI Paul 58-48 (55%) 19-13 (59%)*

Power Ratings48-58 (45%)

Effective Strength 38-68 (36%)

Forecaster 45-61 (42%)

Bettors Ratings 48-58 (45%)

Consensus 46-60 (43%)

Thursday, November 20, 2014 - (109) KANSAS CITY at (110) OAKLAND (+7)Oakland Kansas

City*

Kansas

City*

Kansas

City

Kansas

City

Kansas

City

Oakland Kansas City

Thursday, November 20, 2014 - (109) KANSAS CITY at (110) OAKLAND - TOTAL (42.5)OVER* OVER* UNDER* UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - (251) CLEVELAND at (252) ATLANTA (-3)Atlanta* Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Cleveland Cleveland Atlanta Atlanta

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - (251) CLEVELAND at (252) ATLANTA - TOTAL (47)UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - (261) CINCINNATI at (262) HOUSTON (-1)Houston Houston* Cincinnati Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - (261) CINCINNATI at (262) HOUSTON - TOTAL (43.5)OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - (267) ARIZONA at (268) SEATTLE (-6.5)Arizona* Arizona Seattle Arizona Arizona Arizona Seattle Arizona

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - (267) ARIZONA at (268) SEATTLE - TOTAL (41.5)UNDER OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - (275) DALLAS at (276) NY GIANTS (+3)Dallas Dallas Dallas* NY Giants Dallas NY Giants NY Giants Dallas

Sunday, November 23, 2014 - (275) DALLAS at (276) NY GIANTS - TOTAL (47.5)OVER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

NFL VI PICKS

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For every issue of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

THURSDAY, NOV. 20(109) KANSAS CITY at (110) OAKLANDThe last meeting in this longstanding twice-annual series was a shootout -- Chiefs 56-31 as 6-point road favorites -- topping a 44.5-point total all by themselves. Under’s remain on an extended 14-4 run however. Road teams are 13-3 ATS dating back to 2006. Favorites have covered in the last three games, following a long run of underdog dominance -- 10-0-1 from 2007-2012.

SUNDAY, NOV. 23(251) CLEVELAND at (252) ATLANTAThis will be only the fifth meeting since 1993, and first since 2010. The Falcons won by 10 -- 20-10 -- in that 10/10/2010 game as 3-point road favorites. The Browns won and covered in similar upsets in 2006 (17-13 as 9-point road dogs) and 2002 (24-16 as 2.5-point home dogs). All four previous meetings finished Under totals in a narrow 40-42-point range.

(253) TENNESSEE at (254) PHILADELPHIAThis will be the first meeting since 2010, and only the sixth since 1994, when the Titans were the Houston Oilers. The Titans have won and covered the last three meetings. In 2010, they rolled 37-19 as 3-point home favorites. They also sprung a huge 31-13 upset as 13-point dogs in their last trip to Philly in 2006. Home teams are 4-1 ATS.

(255) DETROIT at (256) NEW ENGLANDThis is yet another inter-conference matchup short on history -- four matchups since 2000. In the last meeting in Foxboro (2006), the Patriots won 28-21 but didn’t cover a big 13.5-point spread. Road teams are on a 4-1 ATS run. Three of the last four matchups have finished over the total, including a 2010 shootout -- 45-24 Patriots, topping a total of 50.

(257) GREEN BAY at (258) MINNESOTAOn Thursday in Week 5, the Packers rolled 42-10 as 9.5-point home favorites. Last Nov. 24, these teams played to a 26-26 tie in Lambeau Field. The Packers are on a 5-3 ATS run in the Twin Cities, including a 44-31 win as 7-point favorites last Oct. 27. That game soared over a 47.5-point total, and Over’s are on an 11-3 run. (259) JACKSONVILLE at (260) INDIANAPOLISIn Week 3, the Colts went into Jacksonville and rolled to a 44-17 win as 6-point favorites. That

was their fourth consecutive win-and-cover, and the average cover margin has been 17.5 points. Under’s were on a 6-0 run prior to that Sept. 21 game. The Jaguars did spring back-to-back upsets in Indy in 2011-12 as 3-point dogs -- 22-17 and 17-3.

(261) CINCINNATI at (262) HOUSTONThe Texans have dominated of late with a 6-0 ATS run dating back to 2005. Included are wildcard-round wins in 2013 (19-13 as 3.5-point home favorites) and 2012 (31-10 as 4.5-point home favorites). They also routed the Bengals, 35-6 as 9-point favorites, in the last regular-season matchup in Houston. Cincinnati hasn’t won SU since a 34-27 home win in 2003.

(263) NY JETS at (264) BUFFALOJust four weeks ago, the Bills went into Jersey and laid a 43-23 whipping on the Jets as 3-point dogs. They also rolled 37-14 as 2.5-point home dogs last Nov. 13, making it 80-37 in the last two matchups. The Jets’ last win in Buffalo was a 27-11 upset as 2.5-point dogs in 2011. Over’s are on runs of 3-0 and 7-2.

(265) TAMPA BAY at (266) CHICAGOThe last time these teams played was in London in 2011, when the Bears won 24-18 as 2-point favorites. The Bucs covered matchups in 2008 and 2006 as road underdogs of 3 and 13 points, with both of those games going way over a very low totals of 35. But those are the only two under-the-total finishes in the last seven meetings.

(267) ARIZONA at (268) SEATTLERoad teams covered both meetings last season, breaking a run of four consecutive home-team ATS wins. The Cardinals won 17-10 as 8-point road underdogs last Dec. 22. But the 2012 matchup in Seattle was as one-sided as it gets -- 58-0 Seahawks as 10-point favorites. That game finished over a low 36 total, but Under’s are on a 5-1 run in Seattle.

(269) ST. LOUIS at (270) SAN DIEGOThese teams meet for the sixth time overall, and first since 2010, when the Rams pulled a 20-17 upset as 8.5-point home dogs. That game stayed under a 44.5-point total, but the previous four meetings went over the total by an average of 17.5 points per game. Included is a 57-31 Rams shootout win in 2000 as 17-point home favorites.

(271) MIAMI at (272) DENVERThe Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in this series, including a 6-0 ATS run from 1999 to 2008. The Broncos won the last meeting 18-15 in a 2011 pick-em game. Five of those six consecutive Dolphins’ covers were as underdogs, including a 26-17 upset in the last meeting in Denver (2008). In fact, they have covered in their last four trips to Mile High.

(273) WASHINGTON at (274) SAN FRANCISCOThe 49ers have won and covered in the last two meetings -- 27-6 as 5.5-point road favorites in 2013 and 19-11 as 4.5-point road favorites in 2011. Both games finished under the total. The last meeting in San Francisco (2008) ended in a push -- 49ers 27-24 as 3-point favorites. A 2002 game there also pushed, and the Redskins are 2-1-2 ATS in San Fran.

NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


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TOP NFL WEEKLY TRENDSTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

$680

$1370

$890

$780

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

$970

$1090

$680

$580

$370

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

$670

(109) KANSAS CITY AT (110) OAKLANDKANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS(L2Y) on ROAD - Conference games( $680 Profit with a 56.2% ROI )

(273) WASHINGTON AT (274) SAN FRANCISCOSAN FRANCISCO is 17-3-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5 PPG(CS)( $1370 Profit with a 56.6% ROI )

(259) JACKSONVILLE AT (260) INDIANAPOLISINDIANAPOLIS is 10-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(CS)( $890 Profit with a 73.6% ROI )

(257) GREEN BAY AT (258) MINNESOTAGREEN BAY is 10-2 OVER(L2Y) on ROAD - OU line of 45 or more( $780 Profit with a 59.1% ROI )

(263) NY JETS AT (264) BUFFALOBUFFALO is 13-3 OVER(L5Y) - Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per(CS)( $970 Profit with a 55.1% ROI )

(257) GREEN BAY AT (258) MINNESOTAMINNESOTA is 11-2 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(CS)( $880 Profit with a 61.5% ROI )

(259) JACKSONVILLE AT (260) INDIANAPOLISJACKSONVILLE is 1-12-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.5 yards per carry(CS)( $1090 Profit with a 70.8% ROI )

(251) CLEVELAND AT (252) ATLANTACLEVELAND is 2-9-3 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG(CS)( $680 Profit with a 44.2% ROI )

(273) WASHINGTON AT (274) SAN FRANCISCOWASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS(L5Y) - VS NFC-WEST( $580 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(269) ST LOUIS AT (270) SAN DIEGOSAN DIEGO is 7-3 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - VS Opp With 1500 or more travel miles( $370 Profit with a 33.6% ROI )

(251) CLEVELAND AT (252) ATLANTAATLANTA is 10-3 UNDER(L3Y) - Against poor rushing teams averaging less than 3.8 yards per carry(CS)( $670 Profit with a 46.9% ROI )

(273) WASHINGTON AT (274) SAN FRANCISCOWASHINGTON is 22-11 UNDER(L33G) on ROAD - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.15 yards per attempt(CS)( $990 Profit with a 27.3% ROI )

$880 $990

(275) DALLAS at (276) NY GIANTSThis has been a high-scoring series of late, with four consecutive over-the-total finishes, and 9 of the last 11. In Week 7, the Cowboys won 31-21 as 4.5-point home favorites in a game that topped a total of 47. The first meeting in 2013 was a 36-31 Cowboys win as 3.5-point home favorites that exceeded a 48.5-point total.

MONDAY, NOV. 24(277) BALTIMORE at (278) NEW ORLEANSThe Ravens are 4-1 ATS dating back to 1996. They won 30-24 as 1.5-point home favorites in the last meeting (2010). In the only matchup in New Orleans (2006), the Ravens won 35-22 as 1-point dogs. The Saints’ cover came in a 37-25 win as 2.5-point road favorites in 2002. The last three games soared over totals by an average of 16.5 points.

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Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained

manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?109 KANSAS CITY -7 27 28.7 KC 25.5 24.4 110 OAKLAND 42.5 17 7.3 13.8 17.5 19.3 251 CLEVELAND 47 21 22.4 22.5 22.7 252 ATLANTA -3 22 -4.1 23.1 23.6 26.7 253 TENNESSEE 48.5 18 16.6 19.1 18.0 254 PHILADELPHIA -11 25 -10.4 31.5 32.1 30.0 255 DETROIT 47 25 16.3 18.2 UNDER 22.0 256 NEW ENGLAND -6.5 29 -6.9 28.3 NE 24.0 24.8 257 GREEN BAY -9 30 29.1 25.3 25.9 258 MINNESOTA 48.5 19 8.4 18.1 20.9 MIN 19.8 259 JACKSONVILLE 50.5 16 13.7 15.5 16.0 260 INDIANAPOLIS -13.5 28 -15.9 35.1 IND 32.8 30.5 261 CINCINNATI 43.5 24 18.7 17.8 22.4 262 HOUSTON -1 23 -1.6 24.1 23.2 23.8 263 NY JETS 38.5 19 16.1 OVER 18.8 OVER 17.6 264 BUFFALO -4.5 22 -6.4 27.4 BUF 25.3 22.9 265 TAMPA BAY 46 17 20.8 19.6 18.4 266 CHICAGO -5.5 21 -6.5 27.5 27.1 26.7 267 ARIZONA 41.5 26 20.9 20.7 ARI 18.8 268 SEATTLE -6.5 28 -5.9 23.8 22.6 26.4 269 ST LOUIS 43.5 22 17.0 18.2 19.6 270 SAN DIEGO -5 23 -4.1 26.9 SD 24.2 26.7 271 MIAMI 48.5 26 21.7 21.4 19.4 272 DENVER -7 31 -8.0 26.6 26.8 30.7 273 WASHINGTON 44 19 16.1 15.6 19.1 274 SAN FRANCISCO -8 26 -10.5 27.7 26.1 26.9 275 DALLAS -3 26 25.6 23.4 23.8 276 NY GIANTS 47.5 20 2.6 21.7 23.6 23.1 277 BALTIMORE 49.5 26 25.4 BAL 23.3 23.7 278 NEW ORLEANS -3 26 -3.6 22.2 24.3 27.4

NFL STRENGTH RATINGS


7


(109) KANSAS CITY (-7 | 42.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:8-1-1] AT (110) OAKLAND [SU:0-10 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 20, 2014 8:25 PM on NFL - O.CO COLISEUM (OAKLAND, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS CITY 24.1 21 30-141 [4.8] 29-19-187 [6.4] 13.6 17.1 20 26-124 [4.8] 33-20-202 [6.1] 19.1 -2 +7.0 OAKLAND 15.2 15 18-63 [3.4] 39-23-213 [5.4] 18.2 26.5 21 34-130 [3.8] 33-22-235 [7.2] 13.8 -12 -11.3

Remember when Tiger Woods won the “Tiger Slam”, winning all four major titles over 365 days, just not the same year? Well, Oakland has done something of the sort with 16 consecutive defeats over two seasons and is very much alive to complete a 0-16 campaign this year. The only positive about the Raiders is they are 5-5 ATS, meaning they are a threat to cover the spread. Scoring 15.2 PPG makes them less a threat however. While Kansas City players did not offer much in words, their smiles and body language suggested the victory over Seattle meant a lot and with Denver’s defeat, they have caught the Broncos. The Chiefs are 15-7 and 16-6 ATS in Oakland.

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS CITY is 9-1-1 ATS(L2Y) on ROAD - On grass field• OAKLAND is 2-8-1 ATS(L3Y) - AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 70%+ WINNING PCT(CS)• KANSAS CITY is 19-6 UNDER(L25G) - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5

PPG(CS)

(251) CLEVELAND [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-4-1] AT (252) ATLANTA (-3 | 47) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEVELAND 21.6 20 32-112 [3.5] 33-18-244 [7.5] 16.5 19.5 22 31-142 [4.6] 37-21-230 [6.2] 19.1 +8 +2.1 ATLANTA 23.8 21 23-96 [4.1] 38-25-271 [7.0] 15.4 25.5 22 30-122 [4.0] 35-22-281 [8.0] 15.8 +3 -1.7

After excruciating defeat to Detroit in London, Atlanta was inches away from another until Carolina kicker Graham Gano’s field goal sailed left to preserve the Falcons W. Coach Mike Smith and his team is tied for first place in the rueful NFC South, yet they were 2-1 SU and ATS in three consecutive outdoor contests, which has to build their confidence. Atlanta will be home three of the next four games; however, is a lamentable 2-16 ATS at home after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Cleveland fans expect the worst and their team delivered in forgettable home game with Houston. We find out this week if Cleveland is contenders or pretenders this season.

GAME TRENDS• ATLANTA is 9-3 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9 yards per

carry(CS)• CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS(L2Y) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)• ATLANTA is 9-2 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - In November

(253) TENNESSEE [SU:2-8 | ATS:3-6-1] AT (254) PHILADELPHIA (-11 | 48.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-3-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD (PHILADELPHIA, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TENNESSEE 16.8 17 22-92 [4.2] 31-18-216 [7.1] 18.3 25.0 24 33-143 [4.4] 34-21-227 [6.8] 14.8 -2 -8.2 PHILADELPHIA 29.9 22 29-114 [4.0] 41-25-293 [7.1] 13.6 25.1 21 29-115 [4.0] 38-22-263 [6.9] 15.1 -9 +4.8

Philadelphia has played three NFC road games and is 0-3 SU and ATS and the trio has a realistic shot to make the postseason. That does not bode well with a trip to Dallas on Thanksgiving. Before then, the Eagles can lick their wounds against a stumbling Tennessee troop coming off a Monday night game. Most important is getting LeSean McCoy back on track and getting Mark Sanchez away from throwing 50-50 passes. Tennessee gave a game effort in losing to Pittsburgh as Ben Roethlisburger finally took advantage of all the Titans blitzing late in the game. In this non-conference conflict, watch for both teams to blitz heavily and whatever quarterback handles it best will likely be your winner.

GAME TRENDS• TENNESSEE is 12-6 ATS(L18G) - VS NFC-EAST• PHILADELPHIA is 1-9 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - VS OPP with less than 6 days rest• PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per

point(CS)

NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



8




(255) DETROIT [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-5] AT (256) NEW ENGLAND (-6.5 | 47) [SU:8-2 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 1:00 PM on FOX - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DETROIT 18.8 18 25-80 [3.2] 37-23-252 [6.8] 17.7 15.6 19 23-69 [3.0] 35-22-221 [6.3] 18.6 +3 +3.2 NEW ENGLAND 32.3 23 29-115 [3.9] 37-24-265 [7.1] 11.8 21.8 22 26-110 [4.2] 36-22-242 [6.7] 16.1 +11 +10.5

After its offensive line was thought to be the weak link to the New England offense, the Pats O-Line punishes Indianapolis and makes the NFL world wonder who former practice squad RB Jonas Gray is. This sets a fascinating matchup with the Detroit front four, who have made the Lions the top rush defense in the NFL. What Detroit has to come up is more offense and with Calvin Johnson back and Golden Tate having a very good season, the Lions to be better than 27th in yards per point. The problem seems to be a combination of Matthew Stafford and first-year OC Joe Lombardi not in harmony. Lions need points with the Patriots 13-4 ATS after five or more Over’s.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - as favorite of 7 or less points• DETROIT is 2-8 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than

3.0 points per game(CS)• NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - Against decent passing teams averaging more than

6.8 yards per attempt(CS)

(257) GREEN BAY (-9 | 48.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-3-1] AT (258) MINNESOTA [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 1:00 PM on FOX - TCF BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GREEN BAY 33.0 21 25-102 [4.1] 33-22-267 [8.1] 11.2 22.5 23 31-139 [4.5] 36-22-238 [6.6] 16.8 +14 +10.5 MINNESOTA 18.1 18 25-117 [4.6] 34-20-192 [5.7] 17.1 22.0 20 27-115 [4.3] 33-22-225 [6.8] 15.5 +1 -3.9

For all the greatness of Aaron Rodgers, this model with these receivers and running backs might be the best of his already outstanding career. The next step for the offense and renewed defense is taking this act on the road and delivering a performance like the last two that will leave people talking. The Packers are 17-6 ATS after consecutive outings of 400-plus yards. Minnesota was a victim of a Lambeau lambasting earlier this season, but an injured Teddy Bridgewater was unavailable on a short week. The Vikings failed to add to Chicago’s woes and took a 21-13 loss. Besides playing into division revenge, Minnesota is 8-0 ATS at home in the second half of the season lately.

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6

yards per play(CS)• GREEN BAY is 4-11 ATS(L3Y) - On non-grass field• MINNESOTA is 13-1 OVER(L5Y) - Against big play passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards

per attempt(CS)

(259) JACKSONVILLE [SU:1-9 | ATS:2-7-1] AT (260) INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5 | 50.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - LUCAS OIL STADIUM (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF JACKSONVILLE 15.8 18 23-98 [4.2] 36-22-217 [6.1] 19.9 28.2 20 29-126 [4.3] 36-23-262 [7.4] 13.8 -11 -12.4INDIANAPOLIS 31.0 25 27-104 [3.8] 44-27-334 [7.7] 14.1 25.3 21 24-113 [4.6] 36-22-263 [7.3] 14.9 +1 +5.7

Sunday was full a disappointment for Indianapolis who thought they were poised for a breakthrough against New England and only were broken. With losses to Denver, Pittsburgh and now the Patriots, the Colts are educating bettors they can win their division and little else. Indianapolis will have a couple games at home to try and repair weaknesses and are 8-0 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points. Another lost campaign for Jacksonville leaves them yearning for a least a repeat performance of last year after the bye week when they were .500. The Jaguars are 7-17 ATS since last season and off a couple of double digit defeats, 2-9 against the spread.

GAME TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 11-0 ATS(L3Y) - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 26.5

PPG(CS)• JACKSONVILLE is 1-12-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards

per carry(CS)• JACKSONVILLE is 9-2 OVER(L2Y) - AS double digit underdog




NFL MATCHUPS


9


(261) CINCINNATI [SU:6-3-1 | ATS:5-4-1] AT (262) HOUSTON (-1 | 43.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CINCINNATI 22.4 19 29-124 [4.3] 32-20-222 [7.0] 15.4 22.1 23 31-136 [4.4] 39-24-249 [6.3] 17.4 +1 +0.3 HOUSTON 22.9 20 33-145 [4.3] 28-18-210 [7.4] 15.5 20.4 22 28-111 [4.0] 39-25-278 [7.0] 19.1 +8 +2.5

Cincinnati players claimed to be unfazed by Andy Dalton’s bounce back performance. This would not be the sentiment anywhere outside the Bengals locker room. Yet is proves how close a team’s record can be altered by the play of its quarterback and confidence it gives to the rest of the squad. This was true of Houston also, as Ryan Mallett stepped in being totally prepared for his start. The zip and accuracy of Mallett’s tosses had to impress his teammates and his demeanor in the huddle was exemplary. The last three trips by Cincinnati to Houston have been massive disappointments, two wild card losses in 2012 and 2013 and a 35-6 shellacking on 2008.

GAME TRENDS• CINCINNATI is 11-1-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards

per carry(CS)• HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards per

play(CS)• HOUSTON is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3 yards

per point(CS)

(263) NY JETS [SU:2-8 | ATS:2-7-1] AT (264) BUFFALO (-4.5 | 38.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - RALPH WILSON STADIUM (BUFFALO, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY JETS 17.4 19 30-141 [4.7] 34-19-178 [5.2] 18.3 26.5 18 25-83 [3.4] 33-21-240 [7.2] 12.2 -11 -9.1 BUFFALO 20.0 17 25-96 [3.9] 36-22-226 [6.3] 16.1 20.4 20 25-99 [3.9] 36-23-223 [6.2] 15.8 +7 -0.4

To nobody’s surprise, Kyle Orton is performing more like a backup quarterback each week, yet coach Doug Marrone says he has no immediate plans of changing quarterbacks. This sets up an anticipated (?) matchup of Orton and Michael Vick. At least Orton should be able to hand the ball to RB Fred Jackson, which should enliven a stagnant Bills attack. Buffalo is 11-1 ATS after a road setback. Having two weeks to enjoy just their second week of the season, New York should have payback in mind having been throttled by Buffalo at home 43-23 a month ago and they are 7-0 ATS playing with road revenge after surrendering 35 or more points.

GAME TRENDS• BUFFALO is 7-3 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards

per point(CS)• NY JETS is 3-11-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per

carry(CS)• BUFFALO is 11-2 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 6.9

yards per attempt(CS)

(265) TAMPA BAY [SU:2-8 | ATS:4-6] AT (266) CHICAGO (-5.5 | 46) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 1:00 PM on FOX - SOLDIER FIELD (CHICAGO, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TAMPA BAY 19.4 18 22-86 [4.0] 34-20-227 [6.7] 16.1 27.9 23 30-118 [4.0] 36-24-266 [7.5] 13.8 -5 -8.5 CHICAGO 21.5 22 24-101 [4.2] 38-25-259 [6.8] 16.7 29.0 20 26-111 [4.3] 33-22-256 [7.8] 12.7 -6 -7.5

Lovie Smith returns to the Windy City for the first time and both his and his former club will attempt to put together back to back victories. In recent weeks Smith’s defense has begun to function more properly with improved play both from the front four and secondary. This would be especially useful for Jay Cutler’s penchant for throwing to the wrong team, especially when under pressure. For reasons unknown, Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons this month. Chicago stuck with Matt Forte, threw to their giant receivers and Culter “only” has two picks, a good day for the Bears in win over Minnesota. Eliminate the interceptions and Chicago could start a winning streak.

GAME TRENDS• TAMPA BAY is 10-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - In November• CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 40%+ WINNING PCT(CS)• CHICAGO is 12-2 OVER(L3Y) - Against mediocre teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 4.0 points per game(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS

10




(267) ARIZONA [SU:9-1 | ATS:8-2] AT (268) SEATTLE (-6.5 | 41.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 4:05 PM on FOX - CENTURYLINK FIELD (SEATTLE, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA 23.7 20 26-80 [3.1] 36-21-253 [7.1] 14.1 17.6 19 23-80 [3.5] 38-24-263 [6.9] 19.5 +11 +6.1 SEATTLE 26.0 21 32-174 [5.5] 29-18-192 [6.6] 14.1 21.5 19 25-91 [3.6] 33-22-215 [6.5] 14.2 +5 +4.5

For Seattle, this is a must win, plain and simple. They trail Arizona by three games and a loss would not only eliminate a chance to still win the division, but could end a chance to even make the playoffs, given their future schedule. Russell Wilson not having Golden Tate or TE Zack Miller has really affected the Seahawks passing game and the defense while still sound, is not as domineering as last year. Seattle however is 8-0 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less. Arizona’s big play offense and aggressive defense continues to confound opponents. If Arizona can keep this close until halftime, they will have the continued confidence to possibly reach 10-1 this season.

GAME TRENDS• SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - as favorite of 7 or less points• ARIZONA is 14-25-1 ATS(L40G) on ROAD - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9

yards per carry(CS)• ARIZONA is 9-2-1 UNDER(L2Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points

(269) ST LOUIS [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6] AT (270) SAN DIEGO (-5 | 43.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 4:05 PM on FOX - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ST LOUIS 18.5 18 26-101 [3.9] 33-21-212 [6.5] 16.9 25.8 20 27-115 [4.3] 33-23-248 [7.4] 14.1 -3 -7.3 SAN DIEGO 21.8 19 27-86 [3.1] 33-22-245 [7.4] 15.2 19.2 19 25-109 [4.4] 34-21-222 [6.5] 17.2 +1 +2.6

The positives from the win over Oakland were players like RB Ryan Mathews and a trio of linebackers returned from injury and added zest on both sides of the ball. The downside was the continued ordinary play of Philip Rivers. Rumors have begun to float that all those hits because of a fluctuating offensive line has led to rib problems. If true, Rivers is not going to get healthier against red hot Rams pass rush that held Peyton Manning and Denver to seven points. The Chargers are 25-14 ATS as non-division home favorites. With St. Louis’ defense ferocious and RB Tre Mason moving the chains, Shaun Hill’s return makes this a dangerous foe the rest of the season.

GAME TRENDS• SAN DIEGO is 18-7 ATS(L25G) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4

yards per point(CS)• ST LOUIS is 7-18 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.1

yards per attempt(CS)• ST LOUIS is 19-6 UNDER(L25G) on ROAD - Against decent passing teams averaging more than


(271) MIAMI [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4] AT (272) DENVER (-7 | 48.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 4:25 PM on CBS - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI 24.9 22 27-127 [4.7] 36-23-221 [6.2] 14.0 18.0 17 25-94 [3.8] 37-22-208 [5.7] 16.8 +3 +6.9 DENVER 29.3 23 24-90 [3.7] 41-27-323 [7.8] 14.1 22.4 20 22-73 [3.3] 42-26-243 [5.7] 14.1 +2 +6.9

Maybe it was bound to happen playing three consecutive road games, because Denver did not play mentally or physically sharp at St. Louis and truthfully was manhandled. Peyton Manning and the Broncos will be out to prove that was an aberration of a long road trip coupled with “one of those days”. With possible wide receivers out, Denver might run more and is 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in last game. Miami could provide a stern test and are 29 seconds away from being on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll, except for a late Detroit touchdown. The Dolphins are second in total defense and fourth in points allowed and Ryan Tannehill continues to improve.

GAME TRENDS• MIAMI is 18-6-1 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards

per carry(CS)• DENVER is 3-10-1 ATS(L14G) at HOME - Before playing KANSAS CITY• DENVER is 10-0 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9

yards per carry(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS


11


(273) WASHINGTON [SU:3-7 | ATS:2-7-1] AT (274) SAN FRANCISCO (-8 | 44) [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-4-1]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 4:25 PM on CBS - LEVIS STADIUM (SANTA CLARA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WASHINGTON 20.4 21 26-110 [4.2] 35-23-271 [7.8] 18.7 25.6 19 26-104 [4.0] 32-21-229 [7.1] 13.0 -11 -5.2 SAN FRANCISCO 21.1 20 30-125 [4.2] 33-20-218 [6.7] 16.3 21.2 19 23-89 [3.9] 36-21-220 [6.1] 14.6 +10 -0.1

The 49ers are playing like many players talk about in the NFL – Win and Move On. With the amount of parity in the NFL, it is nearly impossible to dominate week after week and San Francisco has grinded out two victories and has two important home games in five days. The defense is making plays and the running game has returned, which could be the start of really building momentum. The Niners are 11-2 ATS vs. teams who give up 24 or more points since 2012. Coming off a bye and facing Tampa Bay at home should not have resulted in a 20-point beatdown, but it did. Not much hope for a Redskins turnaround with a 5-14 ATS record the NFC.

GAME TRENDS• SAN FRANCISCO is 20-3-2 ATS(L25G) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5

PPG(CS)• WASHINGTON is 1-11-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards

per carry(CS)• SAN FRANCISCO is 7-3 UNDER(L2Y) at HOME - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles

(275) DALLAS (-3 | 47.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4] AT (276) NY GIANTS [SU:3-7 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 23, 2014 8:30 PM on NBC - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DALLAS 26.1 22 31-153 [4.9] 31-21-234 [7.6] 14.8 21.2 18 24-109 [4.4] 33-22-240 [7.3] 16.5 -1 +4.9 NY GIANTS 20.5 21 27-100 [3.7] 37-23-242 [6.5] 16.7 26.3 21 30-145 [4.9] 32-19-253 [7.8] 15.1 -4 -5.8

Giants’ fans have to face reality; they don’t have a good football team with a 3-7 SU and ATS record. Several mediocre drafts have left a porous offensive line and not enough difference-makers on defense. While Eli Manning deserves to shoulder his part of the blame, week after week no quarterback can be under constant pressure and complete passes. New York is an unimaginable 30-58 ATS in November the last 21 years. Dallas is back in a first place tie in the NFC East and is 12-3 ATS on the road after a bye week. The Cowboys will want to challenge the Giants defensive front with the run and take hits down the middle throwing, which is New York’s biggest weakness.

GAME TRENDS• DALLAS is 7-3 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - On non-grass field• NY GIANTS is 2-10 ATS(L2Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points• DALLAS is 9-3 OVER(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)

(277) BALTIMORE [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4] AT (278) NEW ORLEANS (-3 | 49.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 24, 2014 8:30 PM on ESPN - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BALTIMORE 26.1 22 28-124 [4.4] 35-22-241 [6.9] 14.0 18.1 19 24-84 [3.4] 36-23-251 [6.9] 18.5 +1 +8.0 NEW ORLEANS 26.1 26 27-125 [4.5] 42-29-300 [7.2] 16.3 25.2 21 27-115 [4.3] 34-21-255 [7.6] 14.7 -9 +0.9

After being early unbeatable the last few years in the Dome, New Orleans gave a flat non-effort at home and was smoked by Cincinnati 27-10. This was supposed to be the Saints uprising with three home tilts in a row, but it looks like New Orleans is officially overrated and not responding to Sean Payton. The Saints are 0-8 ATS at home off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite. Baltimore is back tied for first place in their division and will have to prepare for an early New Orleans onslaught. The Ravens will require a heavy pass rush and have Joe Flacco push the ball down the field versus the Saints No. 24 pass defense.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ORLEANS is 13-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3

yards per point(CS)• BALTIMORE is 4-8 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - AS underdog of 7 or less points• NEW ORLEANS is 18-6-1 OVER(L25G) at HOME - Against high-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or

more(CS)


NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



12




TOP NFL PRE- & POST-BYE WEEK TEAM TRENDS FOR WEEK 12

We continue our series of Bye Week Trends in the NFL, focusing specifically on the post-Bye Week Trends affecting the teams that were off last weekend. This week’s bye’s complete the season schedule. The BYE WEEK is one scheduling situation that we have found to be most influential. Each team gets one throughout their 17-week schedule, and where it is placed and how the teams react in and out of that bye week can often make the difference of one or two wins. That of course can affect whether or not a team makes the playoffs. Clearly, the three week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is huge.

Post-Bye Week Analysis for Week 12The following teams were off in Week 11 of the NFL schedule, making the trends below applicable for this weekend’s games.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (post-bye week game: Mon 11/24 at New Orleans)• Head coach John Harbaugh has picked up

right where predecessor Brian Billick left off, going 5-1 SU & ATS in post-bye week games to extend Baltimore’s record in such games to 10-2 SU & ATS (83.3%) since ’02.

• The Ravens are a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS (100%) in three post-bye week games against NFC foes.

DALLAS COWBOYS (post-bye week game: 11/23 at NY Giants)• Dallas has for long been one of the league’s

better post-bye week teams, going 16-7 SU & 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in its L23, including 8-1 ATS (88.9%) in the L9.

• The Cowboys have won four straight road games against divisional opponents in post-bye week situations, both SU & ATS, including 24-21 in New York last season.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (post-bye week game: 11/23 at Indianapolis)• The Jaguars have covered the Vegas

number in their L4 post-bye week games, including outright wins in the three divisional contests of that stretch. In last year’s game at Tennessee, the Jaguars beat the Titans outright, 29-27, as 11.5-point underdogs.

NEW YORK JETS (post-bye week game: 11/23 at Buffalo)• The Jets went on a 7-game ATS post-bye

winning streak under Herman Edwards & Eric Mangini but are just 1-4 SU & ATS (20%) with Rex Ryan at the helm.

• Going back all the way to 1997, the Jets are on a remarkable run of 15-3 UNDER the total (83.3%) in post-bye week games. Last year’s 37-14 loss at Buffalo snapped a string of seven straight UNDER’s in post-bye week divisional tilts.

NFL WEEK 12 TIDBITS


13


CURRENT SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDSThe odds for winning this year’s Super Bowl have changed dramatically over the last month or so of the season, teams like Green Bay and New England have vaulted to the top of the heap, while others like Chicago and Buffalo have plummeted. We asked one of our in-house experts, Jim, to take a look at each team’s odds and give us a one-sentence feel for his thoughts as the teams get ready to him the home stretch. Here is what he had to say, or in this case, write:

Odds to Win 2015 Super Bowl XLIXTeam – Odds1. Green Bay Packers 4/1- Best quarterback in the game always a popular pick to win the Super Bowl. Too bad SBXLIX isn’t at Lambeau.2. New England Patriots 9/2 – Team on a hot streak, can they survive defensive losses?3. Denver Broncos 11/2 – My AFC money is still here, Manning has some injury concerns on his offense, but I believe this defense is better than New England’s.4. Arizona Cardinals 10/1 – Offense that relies on fluky big plays can’t match up with that of Green Bay. Could be a popular upset pick in first playoff game if at home.5. San Francisco 49ers 14/1 – Too many internal issues, too often abandon their strength, not a Kaepernick fan, tough schedule down the stretch. Enough reasons to not believe?6. Dallas Cowboys 18/1 – My #2 pick behind Green Bay to reach Phoenix, great balanced offense, capable team of pulling a road upset.7. Indianapolis Colts 18/1 – As good as Andrew Luck has been, this team is outclassed by quality opponents because of its lack of a running game.8. Kansas City Chiefs 18/1 – Don’t overlook this team, especially if it plays at home for a game or two in the playoffs. KC had the magic working in the MLB playoffs, and this team is better.9. Seattle Seahawks 18/1 – Super Bowl hangover will be worsened in brutal late season stretch of games, will be fortunate to make playoffs.10. Philadelphia Eagles 22/1 – High powered offense will be a tough out in the postseason should they make it, but I just can’t buy Mark Sanchez11. Detroit Lions 30/1 – team has changed its identity to become defense-first, and it will help them in the quest to make playoffs but not much further.12. Pittsburgh Steelers 35/1 – Big Ben has a rich playoff history and his offense is capable of pulling big upsets on the road, a nice longshot bet.13. Baltimore Ravens 40/1 – Another past champion team nucleus but would have been better served if Super Bowl was played in early October.14. San Diego Chargers 40/1 – A team that usually makes late season runs will need one to even reach postseason in tough AFC West, however currently fading fast.

15. Cincinnati Bengals 40/1 – train wreck over the last month until Sunday’s win at New Orleans, a game that could propel them back into the discussion.16. Miami Dolphins 45/1 – A nice story for this season after last year’s locker room trouble, still at least a year away from serious contention though.17. New Orleans Saints 45/1 – For whatever reason, it’s just not clicking this year for Saints, could win division at sub-.500 then get pummeled in first road playoff tilt.18. Atlanta Falcons 75/1 – Hard to even think that this team is still in the playoff hunt. Like Saints, chances of winning a road playoff contest are none.19. Cleveland Browns 125/1 – Another team at least a year away, but fun to root for.20. Houston Texans 125/1 – Another nice longshot, good talent, winnable schedule, and new QB Ryan Mallett makes them better down the stretch.21. Chicago Bears 200/1 – it’s over, another Cutler-less playoffs.22. Minnesota Vikings 250/1 – give me your money instead, will never catch the Lions or Packers.23. Buffalo Bills 300/1 – Nice defense, too bad weak at QB or would be a nice story.24. St Louis Rams 500/1 – Love Jeff Fisher coached teams, but this one is shy at quarterback talent.25. Carolina Panthers 650/1 – What a mess in 2014, one year removed from a 12-4 season, Cam has gone bad.26. Washington Redskins 1000/1 – I can tell you confidently that RGIII will not win in the NFL, not now, not ever.27. New York Giants 1000/1 – Young team, rebuilding, Eli throws more passes to opponents.28. New York Jets 2000/1 – time to start over without Rex, years and miles of talent away from contention.29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2000/1 – popular preseason pick to rebound this year, but McCown experiment went horribly wrong.30. Tennessee Titans 9999/1 – In need of consistent QB play, or any offensive punch for that matter.31. Oakland & Jacksonville – eliminated, can Oakland win a game…yes, mark my words, spoiler.

14




It’s pretty fascinating what football bettors choose at this time of year, especially in college football. Here are the early line moves for this week’s gridiron action.

CFB – (123) VIRGINIA TECH at (124) WAKE FOREST12:30 ET W-ESPNThe combination of Virginia Tech upsetting Duke last week and Wake Forest inability to score has helped raise the Hokies from -14 to -15.5. Virginia Tech’s relentless defensive pressure led to all their points at Durham and the Demon Deacons are averaging an 11.7 PPG in ACC action. With the Hokies 4-0 SU and ATS against Wake Forest, hard to argue the adjustment. VIW Take – Virginia Tech covers

CFB – (147) NORTHWESTERN at (148) PURDUE 12:00 ET ESPNU Those betting football are at least in part counting on the Notre Dame factor for Northwestern, as teams that upset the Irish are typically poor bets the following week. The Wildcats have dropped from -3 to -1 road favorites and there is also a perception Purdue is playing better at 4-2 ATS in conference play, however, those have all been as double digit underdogs. VIW Take – Northwestern covers

CFB – (149) WEST. MICHIGAN at (150) CENT. MICHIGAN 1:00 ET W-ESPNBoth MAC universities are playing well which should make for entertaining contest. Western Michigan is the better team which is why they were made one-point favorites. The Broncos despite their 9-1 ATS record were flipped to one-digit underdogs with the key reason being their 2-8 SU and 3-5 record at Central Michigan. Know this, the SU winner is 8-0-1 ATS since 2005. VIW Take – Lean Western Michigan

CFB – (165) UTSA at (166) WEST. KENTUCKY 12:00 ET FSN AffiliatesThese are two C-USA squads on the opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to offense and defense. Western Kentucky scores 41.6 PPG and allows 39.8 PPG. UT-San Antonio scores an abysmal 16.4 PPG and concedes 23.8 PPG. In football bettor’s minds, they are on the home team that scores and elevated the Hilltoppers two points to -10. VIW Take – Western Kentucky covers

CFB – (167) BOISE STATE at (168) WYOMING 10:15 ET ESPN2As we have talked here all season, Boise State is not the same team as past years despite their record, not having as many quality athletes. Nonetheless, they are one 7-turnover game away from winning nine in a row, yet have tumbled from -14 to -12.5 at Wyoming. Here is one possible clue why – in common foes, the Broncos are +3 PPG and the Cowboys are +6 PPG. VIW Take – Boise State covers

CFB – (203) SMU at (204) CENTRAL FLORIDA 2:30 ET ESPN NewsSMU took a 13-0 lead into the fourth quarter at home against South Florida but could not close the deal for their first win of 2014, falling 14-13. Generally speaking, the Mustangs have played better with 3-2 ATS mark of late. Yet, SMU is not generating any confidence among gamblers and are two-points to +27.5. In coach George O’Leary’s career, he is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of 21.5 or more.VIW Take – Lean SMU

CFB – (207) FRESNO STATE at (208) NEVADA 10:30 ET ESPNUThis is an important contest in the MWC West Division with the winner advancing to the conference title tilt. Nevada was posted as 8-point home favorite and has been bet up to 9.5. By nearly any measure, the Wolfpack are the better team, but Fresno State is 6-2 ATS in Reno and has won the last two outright. VIW Take – Fresno State covers

NFL – Thursday (109) KANSAS CITY at (110) OAKLAND 8:25 ET NFLNWith Oakland averaging a NFL-worst 15.6 PPG and Kansas City No. 2 in points allowed at 17.1 PPG, the total for this AFC West showdown has drifted downward from 43.5 to 42 points. The Raiders are 6-0 UNDER after a division setback, but the Chiefs have big edges on offense and special teams, making this a trickier call. VIW Take – Lean Over

NFL – (257) GREEN BAY at (258) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET FOXThe Packers are on a serious roll with back to back 50+ point games, but even the wagering public does not find them unstoppable, especially on the road against a division foe. Green Bay has been dropped a digit from -10 to -9 and we discovered Minnesota is 7-0 ATS at home vs. teams scoring 24 or more PPG in the second half of the season since 2012. VIW Take – Lean Minnesota

NFL – (263) N.Y. JETS at (264) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBSEight years ago with better teams, a Michael Vick vs. Kyle Orton matchup might have attracted attention. These days not so much and they and their surrounding teammates are not having much success finding the end zone which leads to the total tumbling from 40 to 38.5 Recent battles between these rivals finds the OVER 7-2. VIW Take – Play Over

NFL – (265) TAMPA BAY at (266) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOXQuite interesting the total has dipped from 48 to 46.5 in the – Lovie Bowl. One argument has two below average offenses who are turnover-prone. The other point of view has the No. 30 and No. 32 scoring defenses in the league. Here is what to ponder aside from Chicago weather, if either quarterback connects with their talented pass catchers, this gasme goes OVER, if they struggle, it’s the other way. VIW Take – Lean Over

Records:College – 45-40-1 NFL - 20-22-2

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES


15


VI Jim 62-57 (54%) 22-14 (61%)*

VI Jason 56-63 (47%)16-19 (46%)*

VI Paul 53-66 (45%) 11-25 (31%)*

Power Ratings57-62 (48%)

Effective Strength 55-64 (46%)

Forecaster 58-61 (49%)

Bettors Ratings 65-56 (54%)

Consensus 54-65 (45%)

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 - (107) BOWLING GREEN at (108) TOLEDO (-6.5)Toledo Toledo* Toledo Toledo Toledo Bowling

Green

Toledo Toledo

Thursday, November 20, 2014 - (111) KANSAS ST at (112) WEST VIRGINIA (-2)Kansas St West

Virginia

Kansas St Kansas St Kansas St West

Virginia

Kansas St Kansas St

Friday, November 21, 2014 - (119) AIR FORCE at (120) SAN DIEGO ST (-4)San

Diego St

Air Force Air Force* Air Force Air Force Air Force San

Diego St

Air Force

Saturday, November 22, 2014 - (125) MIAMI FL at (126) VIRGINIA (+6)Virginia Virginia Virginia Miami FL Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia

Saturday, November 22, 2014 - (135) MINNESOTA at (136) NEBRASKA (-10)Minnesota* Nebraska* Minnesota Minnesota Nebraska Minnesota Nebraska Minnesota

Saturday, November 22, 2014 - (165) TX-SAN ANTONIO at (166) W KENTUCKY (-9)W

Kentucky

W

Kentucky

W

Kentucky*

TX-San

Antonio

TX-San

Antonio

TX-San

Antonio

TX-San

Antonio

TX-San Antonio

Saturday, November 22, 2014 - (171) OLE MISS at (172) ARKANSAS (+3)Ole Miss Ole Miss* Arkansas Ole Miss Ole Miss Arkansas Ole Miss Ole Miss

Saturday, November 22, 2014 - (179) LOUISVILLE at (180) NOTRE DAME (-4.5)Louisville* Louisville Louisville* Louisville Louisville Louisville Notre

Dame

Louisville

Saturday, November 22, 2014 - (187) ARIZONA at (188) UTAH (-4)Arizona Utah Utah Arizona Utah Arizona Utah Utah

Saturday, November 22, 2014 - (205) USC at (206) UCLA (-3.5)USC* USC UCLA UCLA USC UCLA UCLA UCLA

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

VI Jim says…Things got REALLY ugly in Madison last week for Nebraska once again, as the Cornhuskers were shredded by the running game of Melvin Gordon. After going up 17-3, they proceeded to allow 56 straight points, leaving experts wondering aloud whether or not they should even be in consideration for a Big Ten title game spot. How do you expect them to react this week as a double-digit favorite against a spunk Minnesota team that also remains in division title contention and comes off an inspiring effort against Ohio State? I don’t expect much. After getting kicked in the stomach that hard, it is going to be difficult for Bo Pelini’s club to bring it, even though they are saying “there is still a lot to play for”. Come on, one flat effort will be followed up by another. Nebraska may win but it won’t be easy.

VI Jason says…Ole Miss seems to have fallen out of favor with the pollsters since losing back-to-back games to LSU & Auburn, but I wouldn’t forget about this group. Remember, the Rebels are the lone team to have beaten Alabama this season, and currently the Tide are probably the country’s best team. Ole Miss closes the regular season against Arkansas and Mississippi State and can certainly make the climb back up into playoff contention with wins in those two games. The defense has basically had just one hiccup game, and anything close to the norm here could make this pointspread laughable, as QB Bo Wallace should be primed for a big day considering how easy teams have moved the ball through the air on Arkansas. The Razorbacks may also still be celebrating last week’s conference losing skid snapping victory. Ole Miss rolls.

VI Paul says…The Notre Dame defense is being shredded like a cheese-grater and two defensive linemen might be out with injuries. Everett Golson has zero capacity to protect the ball and now has a shoulder strain involving his throwing arm. The special teams are starting to look like ancient Rome, in ruins. With Louisville rested and refreshed and having all sorts of game tape on how to go after Notre Dame’s feeble defense, this almost feels like stealing in getting points. Also, let’s not lose sight of the fact the Cardinals have the No.5 defense in the country and have had one bad half all year, against unbeaten Florida State a few weeks ago. Too good to pass and the ‘Ville could win outright.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL VI PICKS

16




Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power

Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?105 KENT ST 45 23 23.6 OVER 20.3 OVER 24.1 OVER106 BUFFALO -7 28 -8.3 32.3 30.7 33.1 107 BOWLING GREEN 64.5 34 26.6 29.9 32.2 OVER108 TOLEDO -6.5 37 -6.5 36.2 36.0 40.8 111 KANSAS ST 57 55 27.2 22.1 UNDER 30.0 OVER112 WEST VIRGINIA -2 52 0.0 28.0 27.2 31.8 113 NORTH CAROLINA 66.5 42 24.6 26.5 30.0 114 DUKE -6 45 -6.8 41.4 DUKE 41.8 DUKE 34.1 115 ARKANSAS ST -5 36 32.6 32.6 36.9 AST116 TEXAS ST UNIV 57.5 25 8.3 23.3 27.2 25.7 OVER 117 UTEP 53.5 28 24.0 21.4 UNDER 20.5 118 RICE -8 36 -12.0 29.9 27.3 34.6 RICE 119 AIR FORCE 50.5 38 23.2 23.2 AF 20.4 120 SAN DIEGO ST -4 36 -1.8 24.5 22.6 UNDER 26.9 121 SAN JOSE ST 46.5 31 16.4 19.2 SJST 21.8 SJST122 UTAH ST -13 42 -14.3 31.5 26.8 27.4 123 VIRGINIA TECH -15 46 31.6 OVER 29.2 OVER 26.8 124 WAKE FOREST 40 29 14.0 13.9 16.0 11.1 125 MIAMI FL -6 55 28.4 22.1 25.3 126 VIRGINIA 49.5 44 8.3 22.5 23.2 VIR 20.4 127 MISSOURI 47.5 51 21.9 19.0 19.9 UNDER128 TENNESSEE -3.5 50 -2.0 27.7 26.1 22.0 129 S ALABAMA 55.5 26 15.3 SA 19.5 SA 17.1 SA130 SOUTH CAROLINA -28 50 -28.3 38.8 32.4 40.6 131 E MICHIGAN 52.5 11 13.9 17.5 21.3 OVER132 BALL ST -17 26 -19.3 38.3 BST 36.7 35.7 133 RUTGERS 58 39 16.2 18.8 RUT 15.2 UNDER134 MICHIGAN ST -22 60 -24.0 43.7 MST 34.5 UNDER 34.4 135 MINNESOTA 56.5 47 22.5 19.8 UNDER 18.8 136 NEBRASKA -10 52 -9.0 33.8 27.9 34.1 NEB 137 VANDERBILT 51 31 9.6 15.5 VAN 10.6 138 MISSISSIPPI ST -29.5 60 -32.8 44.9 MST 39.8 41.1 139 INDIANA 65.5 32 14.0 19.4 IND 15.8 IND140 OHIO ST -34 62 -34.5 50.2 43.4 44.2 UNDER 141 MARYLAND 41.5 43 25.0 MAR 20.6 23.8 MAR142 MICHIGAN -5 42 -3.0 25.0 OVER 24.3 22.3 OVER 143 KANSAS 54.5 35 9.9 17.5 KAN 8.9 UNDER144 OKLAHOMA -25 58 -27.5 42.6 OKL 32.2 UNDER 40.0 OKL 145 SYRACUSE 48.5 38 22.9 21.6 18.7 146 PITTSBURGH -7.5 43 -8.8 30.0 29.0 29.4 147 NORTHWESTERN -1 40 24.6 25.0 22.2 UNDER148 PURDUE 50 35 2.0 25.9 24.8 22.2 149 W MICHIGAN 52.5 38 28.7 WMU 22.9 UNDER 26.9 150 C MICHIGAN -1 35 0.3 24.9 24.9 28.7 151 TULANE 56.5 31 17.7 23.6 TUL 17.7 152 EAST CAROLINA -18 44 -17.3 38.1 33.6 39.4 153 BOSTON COLLEGE 56 44 21.3 22.7 BC 16.9 154 FLORIDA ST -19 61 -22.3 36.2 29.3 35.4

COLLEGE FOOTBALL STRENGTH RATINGS


17


BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?155 PENN ST -6.5 44 28.2 26.7 23.9 156 ILLINOIS 45 35 6.3 20.5 20.7 20.8

157 WISCONSIN -10 58 33.4 26.0 UNDER 26.0 UNDER158 IOWA 51.5 44 11.3 19.4 20.7 IOWA 19.7 159 MARSHALL -20 53 40.2 UNDER 35.8 UNDER 43.4 160 UAB 68 31 19.0 21.6 24.9 UAB 25.3 161 LOUISIANA TECH -12 42 41.8 LT 38.8 35.1 UNDER162 OLD DOMINION 67.5 26 12.8 20.3 UNDER 25.0 27.5 163 NEW MEXICO 64 28 19.3 21.0 NM 22.0 164 COLORADO ST -21.5 44 -19.5 40.3 33.4 UNDER 42.4 165 TX-SAN ANTONIO 57.5 28 23.6 25.8 UTSA 27.8 UTSA166 W KENTUCKY -9 32 -6.5 32.4 29.5 30.5 167 BOISE ST -12.5 46 35.0 OVER 30.8 36.5 BST168 WYOMING 54 30 13.0 23.8 25.0 WYO 18.1 169 TEXAS TECH 69.5 40 29.8 UNDER 32.9 33.5 170 IOWA ST -1 35 2.0 34.1 36.6 34.1 171 OLE MISS -3 61 27.8 21.2 28.9 OVER172 ARKANSAS 45.5 54 4.3 21.8 24.1 ARK 23.3 173 OKLAHOMA ST 69 40 12.3 UNDER 17.8 UNDER 23.9 OKST174 BAYLOR -27.5 65 -30.3 49.2 BAY 45.2 44.1 175 TULSA 56.5 25 17.3 23.6 TLS 18.7 176 HOUSTON -20 42 -20.5 40.1 33.9 39.0 177 COLORADO 70 36 16.2 UNDER 19.5 COL 23.9 COL178 OREGON -34.5 66 -34.5 48.2 45.2 UNDER 50.4 179 LOUISVILLE 53 52 28.7 OVER 25.6 21.0 UNDER180 NOTRE DAME -4 49 -0.5 29.3 25.4 27.2 181 FLA INTERNATIONAL 50.5 27 27.2 28.1 FIU 23.4 182 NORTH TEXAS -3 24 -0.8 25.9 25.9 25.0 183 STANFORD -5.5 52 27.6 23.2 UNDER 34.4 184 CALIFORNIA 57.5 45 4.3 26.2 25.9 CAL 24.5 185 APPALACHIAN ST 62.5 30 27.5 27.3 APST 26.2 186 LA LAFAYETTE -9.5 34 -7.8 33.0 32.2 40.3 LAL 187 ARIZONA 55 51 23.0 24.8 28.3 OVER188 UTAH -4 50 -3.5 29.9 27.9 32.6 189 OREGON ST 54 43 20.7 21.4 UNDER 24.2 190 WASHINGTON -6 48 -8.8 31.5 WAS 26.9 28.4 191 GEORGIA ST 57.5 10 4.9 14.9 GST 7.9 192 CLEMSON -41 52 -45.8 CLM 52.2 CLM 43.4 50.7 193 WASHINGTON ST 68 41 23.7 UNDER 26.9 WAST 28.9 OVER194 ARIZONA ST -16 53 -16.5 39.8 36.4 UNDER 44.0 195 SOUTH FLORIDA 46.5 27 11.0 14.9 16.3 196 MEMPHIS -19 46 -21.5 38.3 MEM 34.2 31.2 197 FLA ATLANTIC 59.5 28 23.9 25.5 24.6 198 MIDDLE TENN ST -7 31 -5.5 33.1 30.7 31.0 199 CINCINNATI -10 43 37.4 CIN 34.2 31.3 200 CONNECTICUT 55.5 29 10.8 20.4 24.8 25.3 201 LA MONROE -8 27 30.1 28.6 33.4 202 NEW MEXICO ST 54.5 14 10.8 21.6 26.2 NMST 23.8 203 SMU 47.5 17 7.1 13.4 SMU 9.9 204 UCF -27.5 41 -28.0 43.3 UCF 35.2 35.8 205 USC 60.5 55 26.3 UNDER 23.2 UNDER 26.7 206 UCLA -3.5 55 -4.0 29.2 27.5 32.8 207 FRESNO ST 62.5 33 21.8 22.8 27.7 208 NEVADA -7.5 38 -8.3 37.0 NEV 36.2 NEV 33.2 209 UNLV 54.5 23 18.0 22.0 24.9 210 HAWAII -10 30 -10.8 34.9 HAW 34.3 31.9 301 OHIO U -2.5 28 25.5 25.0 27.7 OVER302 MIAMI OHIO 49 23 2.5 24.8 25.2 26.7 303 AKRON -5 26 25.0 23.5 29.2 AKR304 KENT ST 43.5 23 0.0 KST 20.0 21.5 17.3

18




For every issue of the Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming college football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

WEDNESDAY, NOV. 19, 2014(105) KENT STATE at (106) BUFFALOThe visiting team has had the upper hand in this MAC matchup having won five straight and is 7-1 against the spread and 9-1 straight up (two off-campus home sites) in the past decade. Overall, Buffalo holds a 5-3-2 ATS advantage and the underdog has the same exact record. The Over was proper choice last year, but 4-5 since 2003.

(107) BOWLING GREEN at (108) TOLEDOA fierce rivalry in the MAC and the stakes will be with two teams trying to win division crowns. Toledo has won four in a row (3-1 ATS), which broke a string of three consecutive Bowling Green wins and covers. Since 1999, the home team has owned a significant advantage as 12-3 ATS with the favorite 9-6 ATS. The Under is on a 7-0 run.

THURSDAY, NOV. 20, 2014(111) KANSAS STATE at (112) WEST VIRGINIAKansas State has handled West Virginia twice with ease the past two seasons meeting in the Big 12, 35-12 as 13-point home favorite and in Morgantown two years ago 55-14 as three-digit underdogs. It will be worth following to see if the Wildcats defense can again slow the Mountaineers high-powered attack and force a third straight Under in the brewing series.

(113) NORTH CAROLINA at (114) DUKEThis intense rivalry does not have the same panache as the basketball games, but seven of the last nine contests have been determined by eight points or less. Duke holds the most recent spread edge at 7-4, including three of the last four as underdogs. In fact, the teams catching points is 8-4 ATS since 2002. The home team is 4-1 ATS since ’09.

(115) ARKANSAS STATE at (116) TEXAS STATEIt appears Arkansas State is going to come up short in their quest to win or share a fourth straight Sun Belt Conference title. The next immediate goal is to finish just behind the leaders and knock off Texas State (7-3 ATS) just like they did last year 38-21 as 7.5-point home favorites. The Red Wolves are 6-4 and 7-3 ATS.

FRIDAY, NOV. 21, 2014(117) UTEP at (118) RICEFor bettors, it has been one-way action in this C-USA confrontation with Rice 9-1 ATS and having won seven of the previous eight contests. Prior to this lengthy stretch, UTEP had covered four in a row. Another factor to consider is the underdog is a dandy 9-4 against the oddsmakers and the Over is a sensational 8-2 the past decade. (119) AIR FORCE at (120) SAN DIEGO STATESan Diego State has been in full control of this conference clash the last few years with four victories and five covers. The road/home matchup has been alternating the last five years and the Under is 5-1 since 2008. The most memorable upset was in 2002 when the Aztecs stunned Air Force 38-34 as 16-point underdogs in Colorado Springs.

(121) SAN JOSE STATE at (122) UTAH STATEUtah State has had San Jose State’s number, winning five in a row (4-1 ATS). The last two Aggies victories have been convincing, by 28 and 22 points at -10.5 and +2.5 respectively. This does not figure to be quite as easy with Utah State forced to use their fourth-string quarterback due to injuries. The road team is 4-0 ATS and the Under 6-3.

SATURDAY, NOV.22, 2014(123) VIRGINIA TECH at (124) WAKE FORESTThese ACC squads collide every now and again, this being the fifth get-together since Virginia Tech joined the conference in 2004. The Hokies are 4-0 SU and ATS against Wake Forest and this will be their fourth trip to BB&T Field in this span. The Demon Deacons have been the underdog each time, though three were a touchdown or less.

(125) MIAMI-FL at (126) VIRGINIAFor this ACC tilt, you need a leash, since the underdog is a hungry 9-1 ATS in last 10 games, including winning the past four. Naturally, these pooches have come mostly on the road and the visitor is 7-3 ATS. From the team perspective, Virginia is 6-4 ATS and catches the Canes off the big Florida State clash. The Over is on a 3-0 roll.

(127) MISSOURI at (128) TENNESSEETennessee has played Missouri twice since they joined the SEC and been on the losing side SU and versus the spread. However, the Vols can have a real say into who wins the SEC East with a win but are just 6-9 ATS at Neyland Stadium versus conference foes since 2010. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS on the SEC road as a member.

(129) SOUTH ALABAMA at (130) SOUTH CAROLINASouth Carolina has completed its disappointing SEC season and is 5-5 and 3-7 ATS and has two non-conference contests remaining. This is the Gamecocks last regular season home game and they are 8-0 and 5-3 ATS since 2006. South Carolina is just 23-21-1 ATS in non-conference play since ’04. South Alabama’s weak offense has held them back at 3-7 ATS, scoring only 21.3 PPG.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


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(131) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (132) BALL STATELast season was the first time in five years Eastern Michigan was at least not competitive with Ball State, falling 51-20 as 10-point home underdogs. Three of the previous four came down to a three-point or less difference and 2012 had the Cardinals winning 37-26. The visitor is a solid 7-3 ATS since 2004 and the Over is 5-0 and 7-1 the last eight years.

(133) RUTGERS at (134) MICHIGAN STATEEleven years ago these two clubs played a home and home series. In 2003 at East Lansing, Michigan State was the winner 44-28, but failed to cover the -20. The following year in New Jersey, Rutgers secured their revenge with a 19-14 upset as touchdown underdogs. That gives the Scarlet Knights a 2-0 spread edge now being in the Big Ten with the Spartans.

(135) MINNESOTA at (136) NEBRASKANebraska whipped Minnesota twice by scores of 41-14 and 38-14, covering the latter in 2012 as 20-point home favorites. Minnesota turned the tables last season with a 34-23 surprise as 10-digit home dogs. This has made the home team and favored team 2-1 ATS, though not perfectly aligned. The total could not be any more even in three matchups at 1-1-1.

(137) VANDERBILT at (138) MISSISSIPPI STATEThese SEC teams have not seen one another on the gridiron since 2009, despite being in the same conference. This has been the nature of their mutual existence, playing now and again. The SU winner is 6-0 ATS and four times that has been Mississippi State in the last 15 years. The home team is 5-1 against the spread.

(139) INDIANA at (140) OHIO STATEIndiana has dumped 19 in a row to Ohio State, last winning in 1988. Nevertheless, after dropping six straight to the sportsbooks against the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers have grabbed the money in the past three. Needless to say those were all in the underdog role for Indiana. In reviewing the totals, the Under is a tidy 6-4-1 going back to 2001.

(141) MARYLAND at (142) MICHIGANIt’s been 24 years since Maryland and Michigan traded helmet paint. In all, these two colleges have met three times and all were in Ann Arbor. The Terrapins have been fair in their maiden voyage through the Big Ten at 6-4 and 5-5 ATS. Probably the last home game for coach Brady Hoke and the Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in home finales since 2005.

(143) KANSAS at (144) OKLAHOMAThe last time Kansas knocked off Oklahoma was 10 games ago in 1997, 20-17 as a field goal home underdog. It has been all Sooners since, with the Jayhawks 3-6 ATS. These teams have flipped-flopped covers in the past five gatherings, with Kansas beating the number at Lawrence last year, losing 34-19 as 21-point underdogs. The Under has been the choice the last two years.

(145) SYRACUSE at (146) PITTSBURGHLong time rivals going back to the Big East days. Syracuse lost 17-16 last year, but it was the first time they covered a spread in five tries and just their fourth in 12 years. The favorite has been the right pick with a 10-4 ATS record going back to 2000. In that same span of time, the total is dead even at 7-7.

(147) NORTHWESTERN at (148) PURDUEFrom 1995 to 2010, this was an annual event in the Big Ten, but this will be the first meeting since. Northwestern was 7-9 ATS in that period in a battle featuring mini-runs when looking at covering home or away and favorite and underdog. The most recent trends (2-0 each) might favor the Wildcats as away team and pooch. The Under is 8-1.

(149) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (150) CENTRAL MICHIGANThe final directional Michigan matchup of the season finds Central Mich. at 5-3 and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight years. This has been no place for a dog, with the favorite a robust 9-2-1 ATS, taking the past five home or away. Prior to 2007, the Under was the smart play at 5-1, however, the past six rivalry games have been split in half.

(151) TULANE at (152) EAST CAROLINASportsbooks have made East Carolina the favorite in the past six contests, but it has been Tulane cashing four winning tickets in those games and the two before that making the Pirates green with envy versus the Green Wave with their 6-2 ATS mark. The home team though has been on a splendid roll at 5-0 ATS, with the Under 6-2 since 2002.

(153) BOSTON COLLEGE at (154) FLORIDA STATESince Florida State has returned to the big boys table, they have not had many problems with Boston College, but the Eagles at least got a cover last year in falling 38-24 as 24-point home underdogs. Earlier, B.C. was a thorn in the Seminoles side, covering four of five between 2006-10. The underdog is 6-2 ATS since ’06.

(155) PENN STATE at (156) ILLINOISFor trend bettors, this is an under the radar series that does not get any pub but should. These Big Ten participants have seen the road team get nearly all the money with a 10-1 ATS record going back a dozen years. Because of the correlation, the underdog is nearly as strong at 9-2 ATS. Illinois has taken six of the previous eight contests.

(157) WISCONSIN at (158) IOWATwo fan bases that have no use for each other. Iowa pounded up Wisconsin pretty good in posting a 6-2 and 7-1 ATS record over nine seasons. Bucky Badger has battled back in the last two (2010 and 2013) for W’s and spread winners. The visitor makes matters worse with a 6-1 ATS record. The total has been back and forth for seven tilts.

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(159) MARSHALL at (160) UABThis might be the last chance for Marshall to possibly be upset, playing their final road game. UAB two years ago clipped the Thundering Herd 38-31 as three-point home underdog; however, the Blazers will be receiving quite a few more points this time. Marshall is 4-1 ATS of late, having won by at least 14 points in those covers. The home team is 5-1 ATS.

(161) LOUISIANA TECH at (162) OLD DOMINIONLouisiana Tech can take one step closer to winning the C-USA West title by winning at Old Dominion. Since their mystifying loss against Northwestern State, the Bulldogs are 6-1 SU and ATS and could be headed to showdown with Marshall. The Monarchs first year of FBS football has them at 4-6 SU, but a rotten defense gives them a 2-8 ATS mark.

(163) NEW MEXICO at (164) COLORADO STATEThe Rams look to make it five in row over the Lobos. Reverting back to 2007, Colorado State is 4-2-1 ATS and the Rams 66-42 drubbing in Albuquerque was the first away team spread-beater in six years. Even with the favorite 2-1-1 ATS the last four years, the underdog is 11-2-1 ATS, having won 10 straight from 2000-09.

(165) TX-SAN ANTONIO at (166) WESTERN KENTUCKYThese two schools have not met on the football field and could hardly be more different this season. Western Kentucky is 5-5 and 4-6 ATS and scores and allows over 39 PPG. UTSA is 3-7 SU and ATS and is one the worst offensive teams in the country at a paltry 16.4 PPG, yet its defense has held up somehow in allowing 23.9 PPG.

(167) BOISE STATE at (168) WYOMINGBoise State has battered Wyoming the last four years, with the average margin of victory 34.7 points a game. The Cowboys did saddle into one cover, on the receiving end of 32 points three years ago in a 36-14 setback. From 2002-07 Wyoming was more competitive and while they never won any of the four meetings, they were 3-1 ATS.

(169) TEXAS TECH at (170) IOWA STATEPick the SU winner in this Big 12 clash and the money is yours. Well it’s not quite that easy, but those have been the facts with each team winning four times. The visitor has also been strong of late with a trio of winners and the underdog is 3-1 ATS after falling in the previous four. The clubs are also 4-4 in totals results.

(171) OLE MISS at (172) ARKANSASThe last thing Ole Miss wants to do is have what could be a very successful campaign go down the tubes at the end of the season. The Rebels will go after a third straight win against Arkansas and reverse a negative 4-9 ATS mark versus the Razorbacks since 2001. The underdog has covered the last three and the Under total is 6-2 lately.

(173) OKLAHOMA STATE at (174) BAYLORWhere these Big 12 squads are at this juncture, it could be partial payback for Baylor. The Bears

were lassoed by the Cowboys 49-17 in Stillwater a year ago ending their perfect season. That made Baylor 3-14-2 ATS against Oklahoma State since 1994. However, the home team is 4-0 ATS of late and amazingly, the Under is 5-2 since 2007.

(175) TULSA at (176) HOUSTONWith Tulsa’s season to date, it looks like the road team winning outright could end, yet the Golden Hurricane still can make it 4-0 ATS with a spread winner away. These two have divided eight ATS matchups in the past nine years. The favorite has lost the last two contests after being 5-0-1 ATS in the previous six. The Under is 3-0 since ‘10.

(177) COLORADO at (178) OREGONOregon has drilled Colorado four consecutive times, with the winning margin a ginormous 40.5 PPG. The last three have been as Pac-12 rivals and the other was in the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, which was the closest contest with the Ducks winning 38-12. Oregon was an underdog in that contest; otherwise they have been favored by at least 30 points and should be again.

(179) LOUISVILLE at (180) NOTRE DAMEThese schools have met often on the hardwood but never on the football field. Louisville has been one the best defensive teams in the country all year and will attempt to force more Notre Dame mistakes and are 15-7-1 ATS as away dogs the last 11 years. The Fighting Irish are notoriously poor home favorites, but are 11-3 and 9-5 ATS in home finales.

(181) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at (182) NORTH TEXASWhen you hear Florida International you don’t think – football mastery- yet this is what the Golden Panthers have over North Texas. This will be first meeting in C-USA action, but from 2007-11 in the Sun Belt Conference, Florida International was 5-0 SU and ATS versus the Mean Green, winning the last four as favorites. The home team and Under is 4-3 in all seven meetings.

(183) STANFORD at (184) CALIFORNIAKnown as the “Big Game”, Stanford has won four in a row, three times as favorites which is mostly how this rivalry has gone in the past 12 years at 7-4-1 ATS. The Cardinal’s 63-13 whipping of Cal ended a four-year period of the visitor taking the money. From 2001-07 we saw seven straight Under’s, but it has been 5-1 Over since.

(185) APPALACHIAN STATE at (186) LOUISIANALouisiana is after its second straight Sun Belt title share and has its final home game this week. After three consecutive defeats in September, many questioned if this veteran team was too satisfied after a trio of 9-4 campaigns and three bowl wins, but the Ragin’ Cajuns are 6-0 (5-1 ATS) since. Appalachian State is 5-5 and 4-6 ATS in first year of FBS football.


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(187) ARIZONA at (188) UTAHAfter being ousted by Utah 34-21 at home in the Utes first-year in the Pac-12, Arizona has come back to win and cover the next two. Prior to this, they met four times in non-conference play from 2000-05 and overall the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS. Here is an interesting trifecta about this series, the road team, underdog and Under are all 5-2 vs. the oddsmaker.

(189) OREGON STATE at (190) WASHINGTON For 12 years Washington fans had to pay Oregon State fans with their friendly ATS wagers 10 times. Huskies backers are beginning to get some of their money back winning the last two SU and ATS. The underdog has had more bite in this neighboring state conflict with a 9-5 ATS record. The Over is on a nice little 4-1 move since 2009.

(191) GEORGIA STATE at (192) CLEMSONFirst-ever meeting and with Clemson done with their ACC season, they have this contest and the always important Palmetto State showdown with South Carolina next week. The Tigers are only 5-9 ATS the week before the Gamecocks contest, but for a second year in a row have a non-conference game instead of ACC action. Georgia State is 1-9 and 4-6 ATS this year.

(193) WASHINGTON STATE at (194) ARIZONA STATEArizona State walloped Washington State 55-21 as 10.5-point faves last Halloween, which was just the third road cover in a dozen contests. With last year’s result, one wonders if the Cougars can make it two in a row for the visitor, something which has not happened since 2000-01. With these two teams, it feels certain the Over moves to 3-1.

(195) SOUTH FLORIDA at (196) MEMPHISIt is easy to forget these schools collided four times in non-conference action from 2001-04, dividing the outcomes and Memphis a touch better spread-wise at 2-1-1 ATS. Four years later they faced off in the St. Petersburg Bowl, which South Florida won 41-14 as 11-point favorites. Last season in AAC action, Memphis conquered 23-10 and is trying to win the conference this season.

(197) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (198) MID. TENN. STATEMTSU has dominated this Conference USA series of late with five consecutive ATS covers, and seven of the last nine since 2005. Four of the last five covers have come as favorites. Last Sept. 21 at FAU, the Blue Raiders won 42-35 as 3-point road favorites. MTSU is 3-1 ATS at home since 2006. Under’s are 4-2-1 since 2007.

(199) CINCINNATI at (200) CONNECTICUTThe Bearcats have won and covered in each of the last three meetings. Last Oct. 19, they rolled to a 41-16 win as 14-point home favorites. At UConn in 2012, they won 34-17 as 3.5-point road favorites. The Huskies’ last SU win and ATS cover came at home in 2010, when they won 38-17 as 1.5-point favorites. Over’s are 5-1 since 2008.

(201) UL-MONROE at (202) NEW. MEXICO STATEThis will be the first meeting since 2003. The Aggies won all three previous meetings SU, and the road team covered ATS each time. In 2003, the Aggies won 21-14 as 6.5-point road favorites. In 2002, they rolled 34-21 at home, but couldn’t cover a 17.5-point spread. And in 2001, they pitched a 31-0 shutout as 11.5-point road favorites.

(203) SMU at (204) CENTRAL FLORIDAThe Knights won 17-13 in Dallas last Dec. 7, but couldn’t cover a 13.5-point spread. That broke a streak of five consecutive ATS covers for favorites since 2007. The game also stayed well under a 56.5-point total, and Under’s are 4-2 overall. The Knights are 3-0 SU and ATS in Orlando, including a 42-17 romp as 9.5-point favorites in 2012.

(205) USC at (206) UCLASeven of the last eight meetings in this longstanding battle for L.A. have finished under the total. The exception was a 2012 shootout won by the Bruins 38-28 in an upset as 4.5-point dogs. In five of those under-the-total games, the losing side was held to single digits, including the Trojans’ 50-0 whitewash as 16-point favorites in 2011. (207) FRESNO STATE at (208) NEVADARoad teams have covered in each of the last three matchups. Last Nov. 2, the Bulldogs posted a comfortable 41-23 home win, but couldn’t cover a big 21.5-point spread. The Bulldogs also rolled 52-36 as 3-point road favorites in 2012. The Wolf Pack won at home in 2011 -- 45-38. The last two totals were set at 74.5 and 70. Over’s are 3-1 since 2010.

(209) UNLV at (210) HAWAI’IThe Warriors have controlled this Mountain West series of late, going 7-2 ATS since 2000. The stronger trend of late has been Over, with five in a row since 2009. As with many series involving the former Rainbow Warriors, the home team has the decided edge -- a 6-3 ATS mark since 2000. Underdogs have covered three consecutive meetings and four of the last five.

TUESDAY, NOV. 25(301) OHIO U. at (302) MIAMI-OThe Redhawks have three consecutive ATS covers in this series, but only one SU win. That came in the last home game (2012), when the won 23-20 as 6-point dogs. Last Oct. 26, Ohio rolled 41-16 at home, but couldn’t cover a big 26-point spread. That game finished over a total of 50, breaking a streak of four consecutive under-the-total finishes.

(303) AKRON STATE at (304) KENT STATEThe Zips are on a 4-1 ATS run. Last Nov. 2, they won 16-7 as 1.5-point home favorites. The Golden Flashes won 35-24 in 2012, but couldn’t cover an 18.5-point spread at home. The last four games have finished under some widely variant totals -- 52, 61, 39 and 46.5. In the 39-total game (2011), Kent State won 35-3 at Akron.

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I was told last week of a system a buddy of mine uses to handicap college football games. Without anything else even considered, he is a big proponent of using rushing stats to determine the strength of teams. He doesn’t consider overall yardage, rather yards per attempt, and he surmises that teams that both run the football and stop the run proficiently are highly successful. Now naturally, having strength up front on the offensive and defensive lines is a certain plus for a team, but in our seemingly endless debates, I argued to the defense of the importance of the quarterback and the ability to rush the passer on defense. So, while my buddy studies yards per rush attempt statistics, I tend to prefer looking at yards per pass attempt, as this to me quantifies big play ability on offense, and the ability to shut down big plays on defense.

In any case, enough about the argument between us, as after all, both sides of the debate are futile without any particular numbers or proof to go on. That my friends, is where this week’s feature college football article comes in. I have taken the liberty of purging the Football Weekly database and figured out the yards per pass and yards per run offense and defense of teams going into games in post-week 5 contests over the last five seasons. Essentially, I took this particular cutoff date, because I have assumed that after three or four weeks in a given season that a team has started to truly define itself. It’s strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies surely can further develop through the remainder of the schedule but we get a good idea in the first month or so of how well a team runs or passes offensively and alternatively, stops the run or pass on defense.

By digging through the database in this way, I figure we will come up with 1) an answer to our debate of which stats are more important and 2) some powerful betting systems that we can keep in our library for future reference. Incidentally, after sitting down and watching the Nebraska-Wisconsin game with my good friend, I started feeling like his argument had some merit, as the Badgers have been stellar at the line of scrimmage controlling the running game and proceeded to blast the Cornhuskers, thus proving a winning bet for him.

Let’s get to the study…the first group of numbers you will see are the records of teams in our database in the defined conditions based upon their statistical averages in the given categories.

Yards Per Rushing Attempt – OffensiveHere are the records of various teams over the L4+ seasons in weeks 5 and beyond based upon their offensive rushing yards per attempt stats:

< 3.00 YPR: 207-207-6 ATS (50%)3.00-3.50 YPR: 251-292-2 ATS (46.2%)3.51-3.99 YPR: 475-421-11 ATS (53.0%)4.00-4.50 YPR: 535-583-12 ATS (47.9%)4.51-4.99 YPR: 488-482-8 ATS (50.3%)5.00-5.50 YPR: 351-328-13 ATS (51.7%)5.51-5.99 YPR: 177-188-9 ATS (48.5%)>=6.00 YPR: 137-120-7 ATS (53.3%)

Yards Per Rushing Attempt – DefensiveHere are the records of various teams over the L4+ seasons in weeks 5 and beyond based upon their defensive rushing yards per attempt stats:

< 3.00 YPR: 281-260-8 ATS (51.9%)3.00-3.50 YPR: 411-409-12 ATS (50.1%)3.51-3.99 YPR: 556-529-17 ATS (51.2%)4.00-4.50 YPR: 590-586-14 ATS (47.9%)4.51-4.99 YPR: 414-438-14 ATS (48.6%)5.00-5.50 YPR: 232-248-3 ATS (48.3%)5.51-5.99 YPR: 93-89 ATS (50.5%)>=6.00 YPR: 44-62 ATS (41.5%)

Yards Per Passing Attempt – OffensiveHere are the records of various teams over the L4+ seasons in weeks 5 and beyond based upon their offensive passing yards per attempt stats:

< 6.00 PYA: 333-317-6 ATS (51.2%)6.00-6.50 PYA: 319-343-10 ATS (48.2%)6.51-6.99 PYA: 388-401-13 ATS (49.2%)7.00-7.50 PYA: 432-432-9 ATS (50%)7.51-7.99 PYA: 365-388-12 ATS (48.5%)8.00-8.50 PYA: 324-324-6 ATS (50%)8.51-8.99 PYA: 192-171-7 ATS (52.9%)>=9.00 PYA: 268-245-5 ATS (52.2%)

Yards Per Passing Attempt – DefensiveHere are the records of various teams over the L4+ seasons in weeks 5 and beyond based upon their defensive passing yards per attempt stats:

< 6.00 PYA: 415-419-11 ATS (49.8%)6.00-6.50 PYA: 437-407-13 ATS (51.8%)6.51-6.99 PYA: 527-502-16 ATS (51.2%)7.00-7.50 PYA: 521-516-13 ATS (50.2%)7.51-7.99 PYA: 305-374-8 ATS (44.9%)8.00-8.50 PYA: 218-222-4 ATS (49.5%)8.51-8.99 PYA: 101-96-3 ATS (51.3%)>=9.00 PYA: 97-85 ATS (53.3%)

Summary of basic records breakdownFrom the above records, we can start making some basic assumptions that we will use going forward to break down into various system development. We do this analysis assuming

COLLEGE FOOTBALL YARDS PER ATTEMPT STATS STUDY


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that the pointspread is the great equalizer. First, teams that run for less than 3.50 yards per rush are generally a bad bet. Teams that run for more than 6.00 yards per attempt are solid plays. Next, for the most part, teams that allow over 4.00 yards per rush are good fade teams. In terms of passing yardage, teams that gain over 8.50 are worthy regularly of your betting dollar, while there is very little definitive advantage to any particular level of defensive passing statistical grouping. That said, there is a strange anomaly in the performance of the 7.51-7.99 yards per attempt group that we will look at later.

Digging deeper into home/roadArmed with our basic theories, we dug into the database a little deeper, testing our initial data against varying scenarios, looking for greater advantages:

• Teams that rush for 3.50 yards per attempt or less are 225-236-4 ATS (48.8%) at home and 220-251-4 ATS (46.7%) in pure road games. Thus, it can be said that the inability to run the ball on the road makes life difficult for a team, not a surprise revelation.

• Teams that rush for 6.00 yards per attempt or more are 55-58-3 ATS (48.7%) at home but a highly profitable 70-52-4 ATS (57.4%) on the road. Just the opposite as above, being able to control a game with the run is a big factor for road success.

• Teams that allow 4.00 or more yards per rush attempt on defense are just 631-674-17 ATS (48.4%) in home games in our sample. Teams meeting that statistical criteria and playing on the road are a bit better at 661-665-11 ATS (49.8%).

• Teams that gain over 8.50 yards per attempt on average through the air are 212-189-4 ATS (51.6%) in home games and 247-227-8 ATS (52.1%) in road/neutral field games, so again, we find a little better success for teams imposing their will on an opponent away from home.

• As promised, we dug deeper into our defensive yards per attempt anomaly group to find that teams allowing between 7.51 and 7.99 yards per pass were 145-216-6 ATS (40.2%) at home or on a neutral field and 160-157-3 ATS (50.5%) on the road.

• In neutral field games, teams allowing more than 7.50 yards per pass attempt are just 19-40 ATS (32.2%).

Digging deeper by looking at quality of opponent playedBy matching a team with certain strong statistical categories against an opponent with weak numbers, and vice versa, we should figure to improve our results, right? Take a look at what we found and the corresponding plays for one of the systems this week.

• Teams that average 3.50 yards per rush on offense or less and are going against a solid defense that yields 3.50 yards per rush attempt or less are just 102-137-1 (42.7%). When these teams are on the road, they are just 44-70 ATS (38.6%).

Plays for Saturday: 1) Fade Illinois at home versus Penn State 2) Fade Oklahoma State at Baylor 3) Fade Kansas at Oklahoma 4) Fade Maryland at Michigan 5) Fade Georgia State at Clemson

• Teams that rush for better than 6.00 yards per attempt on the season are 46-24-1 ATS (65.7%) when matched against an opponent that yields 5.00 or more. Quite simply, oddsmakers can’t make a line high enough to account for this degree of physical mismatch. The better group of this system is the teams playing away from home, as they are 29-12-1 ATS, good for 70.7%!

• What about the case when a powerful run offense meets a stifling run defense? Well, it’s an edge to the defense, as teams gaining 6.00 or more yards per run attempt are just 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) versus teams allowing less than 3.00 yards per run.

• What about the case when a proficient pass offense meets a stout pass defense? Well, it’s a slight edge to the offense, as teams gaining 8.50 or more yards per pass attempt are 46-36-1 ATS (56.1%) versus teams allowing less than 5.50 yards per pass. The greater advantage to this group comes when backing teams playing at home or on a neutral field, as they are 31-20-1 ATS (60.8%). Keep this in mind as you analyze the upcoming bowl games.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(105) KENT ST [SU:1-9 | ATS:4-6] AT (106) BUFFALO (-7 | 45) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]

NOVEMBER 19, 2014 8:00 PM on ESPNU - UB STADIUM (BUFFALO, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KENT ST 15.3 18 25-79 [3.1] 40-22-228 [5.7] 20.1 29.5 23 46-218 [4.7] 29-17-220 [7.6] 14.8 -5 -14.2BUFFALO 31.4 22 39-167 [4.2] 34-21-259 [7.7] 13.6 32.6 18 42-176 [4.2] 27-14-228 [8.6] 12.4 -3 -1.2

GAME TRENDS• BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS(L2Y) - Against lesser-scoring teams averaging 23 PPG or less(CS)

(107) BOWLING GREEN [SU:7-3 | ATS:4-6] AT (108) TOLEDO (-6.5 | 64.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 19, 2014 8:00 PM on ESPN2 - GLASS BOWL STADIUM (TOLEDO, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOWLING GREEN 32.6 24 39-175 [4.4] 42-25-280 [6.7] 14.0 32.2 27 39-183 [4.7] 45-27-323 [7.1] 15.7 +6 +0.4 TOLEDO 33.4 25 42-252 [6.0] 33-20-247 [7.5] 14.9 31.6 23 33-125 [3.8] 39-25-311 [8.0] 13.8 -3 +1.8

With Bowling Green’s victory last week over Kent State, they became the first back-to-back champions in the East Division since Miami-O in 2003-04. That is quite an accomplishment when one considers they lost expected preseason All-MAC quarterback Matt Johnson for the season and still persevered. Toledo has seen their share of adversity also, forced to use four different quarterbacks due to injury this season. Toledo is in a three-way tie for first place but does not but control of its destiny and has to win out to have a chance to win the MAC West. Both offenses average over 32 points a game but the Rockets defense is 71-plus yards better. The home team is 12-3 ATS since 1999.

GAME TRENDS• BOWLING GREEN is 8-2 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Conference games• TOLEDO is 3-7 ATS(CS) - All Games• BOWLING GREEN is 8-1-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 6.0

yards per play(CS)

(111) KANSAS ST [SU:7-2 | ATS:6-3] AT (112) WEST VIRGINIA (-2 | 57) [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 20, 2014 7:00 PM on FS1 - MILAN PUSKAR STADIUM (MORGANTOWN, WV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS ST (12) 36.2 22 37-157 [4.2] 31-19-265 [8.7] 11.7 21.1 19 34-127 [3.7] 33-20-220 [6.6] 16.4 +5 +15.1 WEST VIRGINIA 34.1 26 46-184 [4.0] 40-27-318 [8.0] 14.7 26.4 19 38-181 [4.7] 34-17-204 [6.1] 14.6 -13 +7.7

Kansas State can still at least grab a share of the Big 12 title and play in a major bowl game by winning out. The Wildcats will have a rugged test in Morgantown because like TCU whom they just lost to, West Virginia is equally adept at running or passing with big play capabilities. Coach Bill Snyder teams are 10-2 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in last outing. Most experts had West Virginia pegged at four or five wins and with an upset of Kansas State, could climb to 8-wins. The Mountaineers offense has been what you would expect from coach Dana Holgorsen and the young defense plays hard. West Virginia however is 1-8 ATS off a bye.

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS ST is 10-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per

attempt(CS)• WEST VIRGINIA is 5-14 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)• KANSAS ST is 13-4 OVER(L5Y) - In November

(113) NORTH CAROLINA [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6] AT (114) DUKE (-6 | 66.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 20, 2014 7:30 PM on ESPN - WALLACE WADE STADIUM (DURHAM, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTH CAROLINA 35.9 24 37-140 [3.8] 40-25-290 [7.2] 12.0 41.2 25 46-228 [4.9] 32-19-283 [8.8] 12.4 +4 -5.3 DUKE (25) 32.9 22 37-194 [5.3] 37-21-202 [5.5] 12.0 18.1 22 45-198 [4.4] 32-17-192 [5.9] 21.5 +7 +14.8

GAME TRENDS• DUKE is 10-2 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - As favorite






25


(115) ARKANSAS ST (-5 | 57.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:7-3] AT (116) TEXAS ST [SU:5-5 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 20, 2014 9:30 PM on ESPNU - BOBCAT STADIUM (SAN MARCOS, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARKANSAS ST 33.8 22 45-216 [4.8] 34-21-232 [6.9] 13.3 25.3 20 42-175 [4.2] 32-17-213 [6.7] 15.3 +7 +8.5 TEXAS ST 30.7 22 44-215 [4.9] 33-21-225 [6.9] 14.3 27.4 21 45-214 [4.7] 31-20-220 [7.0] 15.8 +4 +3.3

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS ST is 9-1 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Conference games

(117) UTEP [SU:6-4 | ATS:8-2] AT (118) RICE (-8 | 53.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 21, 2014 8:00 PM on FS1 - RICE STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTEP 30.3 18 45-228 [5.0] 22-12-142 [6.4] 12.2 29.2 16 31-163 [5.2] 27-14-209 [7.7] 12.7 +8 +1.1 RICE 28.2 20 46-185 [4.1] 26-15-212 [8.0] 14.1 27.5 20 36-150 [4.2] 31-17-232 [7.5] 13.9 +8 +0.7

GAME TRENDS• RICE is 8-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5 yards per

attempt(CS)

(119) AIR FORCE [SU:8-2 | ATS:6-4] AT (120) SAN DIEGO ST (-4 | 49.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-5-1]NOVEMBER 21, 2014 9:30 PM on CBSSN - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF AIR FORCE 33.0 23 63-288 [4.6] 15-9-149 [9.7] 13.2 23.6 18 36-142 [4.0] 32-18-238 [7.5] 16.1 +4 +9.4 SAN DIEGO ST 24.1 19 38-205 [5.4] 27-15-182 [6.6] 16.1 22.0 19 39-151 [3.8] 29-17-198 [6.8] 15.9 -2 +2.1

San Diego State needs to win its finals two MWC contests and keep their fingers crossed Nevada and Fresno State each lose once in the muddled West Division. The Aztecs have only themselves to blame for being in this spot, holding a substantial 20-0 over Boise State last week, before the Broncos overwhelmed them the rest of the way 38-9 in the last 37 minutes. San Diego State is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS against the Air Force. It’s one of those years, as the Mountain Division has four teams with at least eight wins. The Falcons are one of them, yet they are in fourth place and cannot do much to improve their position with recent 3-0 SU and ATS record.

GAME TRENDS• SAN DIEGO ST is 11-3 ATS(L5Y) - Against big play passing teams averaging more than 8.3 yards

per attempt(CS)• AIR FORCE is 3-10 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)• AIR FORCE is 10-3-1 OVER(L2Y) - Conference games

(121) SAN JOSE ST [SU:3-7 | ATS:3-7] AT (122) UTAH ST (-13 | 46.5) [SU:8-3 | ATS:5-6]NOVEMBER 21, 2014 9:30 PM on ESPN2 - ROMNEY STADIUM (LOGAN, UT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN JOSE ST 21.8 23 37-141 [3.8] 40-25-284 [7.1] 19.5 27.4 18 43-217 [5.0] 20-11-127 [6.3] 12.6 -10 -5.6 UTAH ST 26.9 17 36-165 [4.5] 30-19-222 [7.5] 14.4 19.4 20 37-110 [3.0] 38-20-250 [6.6] 18.6 +13 +7.5

GAME TRENDS• UTAH ST is 10-2 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.35

yards per carry(CS)

(123) VIRGINIA TECH (-15 | 40) [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6] AT (124) WAKE FOREST [SU:2-8 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:30 PM on ESPN3 - BB&T FIELD (WINSTON-SALEM, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF VIRGINIA TECH 25.3 20 38-140 [3.7] 37-22-232 [6.3] 14.7 21.9 17 37-163 [4.3] 28-13-181 [6.5] 15.7 -2 +3.4 WAKE FOREST 15.1 14 32-34 [1.1] 32-18-170 [5.4] 13.5 27.3 19 42-193 [4.6] 29-17-180 [6.3] 13.7 -3 -12.2

GAME TRENDS• VIRGINIA TECH is 8-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)


COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS





26




(125) MIAMI FL (-6 | 49) [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5] AT (126) VIRGINIA [SU:4-6 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 7:00 PM on ESPN2 - SCOTT STADIUM (CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI FL 32.3 20 35-197 [5.5] 28-17-245 [8.8] 13.7 22.7 19 38-130 [3.4] 33-18-193 [5.9] 14.2 +2 +9.6 VIRGINIA 26.0 21 37-142 [3.8] 37-21-241 [6.5] 14.7 25.2 19 37-119 [3.2] 33-18-229 [7.0] 13.8 +2 +0.8

Miami gave it their best shot, but it was not enough to knockoff Florida State, despite outgaining them by 74 yards. Coach Al Golden and his staff will have to work on mental damage control to have the Hurricanes put that game behind them and move on which might not be easy after having 23-10 lead at halftime. QB Brad Kaaya and RB Duke Johnson need to be team leaders, but Miami is only 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season. Virginia’s season has unraveled with four consecutive losses (4-6, 6-4 ATS). The lack of offense has hurt what has been a pretty solid defense (31st nationally) and the Cavaliers have to make this a defensive game.

GAME TRENDS• MIAMI FL is 8-2 ATS(L3Y) - as favorite of 7 or less points• VIRGINIA is 2-10-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5

yards per attempt(CS)• VIRGINIA is 7-2 UNDER(L5Y) - More than 6 days rest

(127) MISSOURI [SU:8-2 | ATS:6-4] AT (128) TENNESSEE (-3.5 | 47) [SU:5-5 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 7:30 PM on ESPN - NEYLAND STADIUM (KNOXVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MISSOURI (19) 29.3 20 38-177 [4.6] 29-15-178 [6.1] 12.1 20.1 19 39-132 [3.4] 35-20-209 [6.0] 17.0 +7 +9.2 TENNESSEE 28.6 21 40-140 [3.5] 37-23-242 [6.5] 13.4 24.1 18 40-164 [4.1] 29-16-199 [6.9] 15.1 +2 +4.5

GAME TRENDS• TENNESSEE is 10-3-1 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0

yards per play(CS)

(129) S ALABAMA [SU:6-4 | ATS:3-7] AT (130) SOUTH CAROLINA (-28 | 55.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM on ESPN3 - WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUM (COLUMBIA, SC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF S ALABAMA 21.3 21 41-183 [4.5] 31-16-193 [6.3] 17.7 23.1 21 40-169 [4.2] 32-18-211 [6.6] 16.5 -5 -1.8 SOUTH CAROLINA 34.6 25 38-176 [4.6] 37-22-286 [7.7] 13.4 32.7 23 39-223 [5.7] 30-19-219 [7.3] 13.5 -4 +1.9

GAME TRENDS• S ALABAMA is 9-2 UNDER(L3Y) - In November

(131) E MICHIGAN [SU:2-8 | ATS:4-6] AT (132) BALL ST (-17 | 52) [SU:3-7 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 2:00 PM on ESPN3 - SCHEUMANN STADIUM (MUNCIE, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF E MICHIGAN 13.6 15 39-147 [3.8] 25-12-129 [5.2] 20.3 39.4 24 43-231 [5.4] 33-22-272 [8.3] 12.8 -13 -25.8BALL ST 24.6 20 37-142 [3.8] 36-20-209 [5.9] 14.3 27.2 22 40-188 [4.7] 33-20-230 [7.1] 15.4 +6 -2.6

GAME TRENDS• BALL ST is 9-1 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)

(133) RUTGERS [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4] AT (134) MICHIGAN ST (-22 | 58.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM on BTN - SPARTAN STADIUM (EAST LANSING, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RUTGERS 26.3 18 38-153 [4.0] 26-15-229 [8.7] 14.5 28.8 20 38-203 [5.4] 31-18-226 [7.4] 14.9 -1 -2.5 MICHIGAN ST (10) 43.8 25 46-246 [5.3] 31-18-268 [8.8] 11.7 22.6 14 29-104 [3.6] 31-16-201 [6.4] 13.5 +18 +21.2

GAME TRENDS• MICHIGAN ST is 8-2 ATS(L2Y) - As ranked team VS non-ranked team








27


(135) MINNESOTA [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4] AT (136) NEBRASKA (-10 | 56.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM on ESPN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (LINCOLN, NE)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MINNESOTA 30.0 18 47-224 [4.8] 18-9-135 [7.3] 12.0 22.3 20 35-153 [4.4] 35-20-198 [5.7] 15.7 +9 +7.7 NEBRASKA (21 38.8 23 47-264 [5.6] 26-13-195 [7.5] 11.8 23.6 18 35-169 [4.8] 35-16-199 [5.8] 15.6 -2 +15.2

Since Bo Pelini has arrived in Lincoln, Nebraska has lost 10 games for 20 or more points, not a sign of an elite program. Most of those defeats have come against better quality foes, like the Cornhuskers are supposed to be and are not in big games. Nebraska has now failed to cover three in a row and faces a plucky Minnesota group who is well-coached and is seldom outfought. The Huskers are 23-8 ATS after posting a 1-3 ATS record in past for contests. If Minnesota knocks of Nebraska and Wisconsin next week, they are West Division champions. The Gophers have a punishing running game with David Cobb and are a potent 6-0 ATS in November the last two seasons.

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS(L5Y) - In November• NEBRASKA is 4-13-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS)• NEBRASKA is 8-1 OVER(L2Y) - As ranked team VS non-ranked team

(137) VANDERBILT [SU:3-7 | ATS:5-5] AT (138) MISSISSIPPI ST (-29.5 | 51) [SU:9-1 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 7:30 PM on SEC - DAVIS WADE STADIUM (STARKVILLE, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF VANDERBILT 18.9 16 32-114 [3.6] 29-15-182 [6.3] 15.7 32.4 21 40-175 [4.4] 30-18-231 [7.7] 12.5 -12 -13.5MISSISSIPPI ST (4) 37.8 25 45-244 [5.4] 31-19-269 [8.7] 13.6 20.2 21 35-126 [3.6] 43-23-292 [6.8] 20.7 -3 +17.6

Mississippi State’s season is not over. The Bulldogs have to win their final two games, hope hated rival Ole Miss wins this week and quite possibly they still will get in invite to the two big games on New Year’s. One area that Mississippi State needs immediate improve is from QB Dak Prescott, who has eight picks in his last four games. Coach Dan Mullen will lay out to his team what they need and being angry and vanquishing Vandy will be at the top of the list for this week. MSU is 7-1 ATS and 4-0 ATS when the Commodores visit. Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS off a bye, but that was with a different coaching staff and could get routed.

GAME TRENDS• VANDERBILT is 9-2 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Conference games• MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-10 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards

per point(CS)• MISSISSIPPI ST is 9-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against lesser-scoring teams averaging 23 PPG or less(CS)

(139) INDIANA [SU:3-7 | ATS:2-7-1] AT (140) OHIO ST (-34 | 65.5) [SU:9-1 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM on BTN - OHIO STADIUM (COLUMBUS, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANA 25.1 19 46-264 [5.8] 26-14-146 [5.6] 16.3 33.6 23 38-174 [4.6] 37-23-258 [7.0] 12.9 -6 -8.5 OHIO ST (7) 44.5 27 47-263 [5.6] 27-17-247 [9.0] 11.5 22.0 18 36-134 [3.7] 32-18-189 [6.0] 14.7 +5 +22.5

Ohio State has to hope Wisconsin reaches the Big Ten title game and they can rout them and other teams listed ahead of them falter to make the Final Four. The Buckeyes made key miscues which prevented them from covering against Minnesota. Ohio State has won 19 in a row over Indiana and is 30-10 ATS against teams rushing for 230 or more yards a contest. Given Indiana’s offensive woes outside of terrific RB Tevin Coleman, this could be no contest and the Hoosiers are 3-13 ATS in road games versus offensive teams averaging 450 or more yards a game. Coach Urban Meyer has a history of beating large spreads and would like style points it would seem here.

GAME TRENDS• OHIO ST is 13-4 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - as favorite of more than 20 points• INDIANA is 2-10 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards

per play(CS)• OHIO ST is 10-2 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)





28




(141) MARYLAND [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-5] AT (142) MICHIGAN (-5 | 41.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on BTN - MICHIGAN STADIUM (ANN ARBOR, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MARYLAND 28.8 18 33-114 [3.5] 34-19-230 [6.7] 11.9 29.0 22 46-198 [4.3] 36-19-238 [6.6] 15.0 -3 -0.2 MICHIGAN 20.7 17 34-154 [4.5] 27-15-168 [6.3] 15.6 20.4 16 37-103 [2.8] 29-18-198 [6.7] 14.8 -13 +0.3

GAME TRENDS• MARYLAND is 8-2-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per

carry(CS)

(143) KANSAS [SU:3-7 | ATS:5-5] AT (144) OKLAHOMA (-25 | 53.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM on FS1 - OKLAHOMA MEMORIAL STADIUM AT OWEN FIELD (NORMAN, OK)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS 19.4 18 41-138 [3.4] 33-18-221 [6.8] 18.5 30.4 22 37-181 [4.9] 36-21-257 [7.2] 14.4 +5 -11.0OKLAHOMA (23) 38.8 24 41-241 [5.9] 32-18-238 [7.5] 12.3 25.2 22 35-118 [3.3] 41-23-291 [7.0] 16.2 0 +13.6

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS is 17-3 UNDER(L3Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS)

(145) SYRACUSE [SU:3-7 | ATS:4-6] AT (146) PITTSBURGH (-7.5 | 49) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on ESPNU - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SYRACUSE 19.1 18 37-159 [4.3] 34-19-199 [5.9] 18.7 23.4 19 39-127 [3.2] 31-20-217 [7.0] 14.7 +2 -4.3 PITTSBURGH 31.5 23 47-253 [5.4] 24-15-187 [7.8] 14.0 27.7 19 37-164 [4.5] 28-15-187 [6.7] 12.7 -7 +3.8

GAME TRENDS• SYRACUSE is 8-1 UNDER(CS) - All Games

(147) NORTHWESTERN (-1 | 49.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6] AT (148) PURDUE [SU:3-7 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM on ESPNU - ROSS-ADE STADIUM (WEST LAFAYETTE, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTHWESTERN 20.5 20 39-125 [3.2] 39-22-220 [5.7] 16.8 24.1 20 40-169 [4.2] 32-18-217 [6.8] 16.0 +5 -3.6 PURDUE 25.6 17 34-160 [4.8] 35-19-187 [5.3] 13.6 31.9 23 40-186 [4.6] 34-19-236 [7.0] 13.2 0 -6.3

GAME TRENDS• NORTHWESTERN is 8-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4

yards per carry(CS)

(149) W MICHIGAN [SU:7-3 | ATS:9-1] AT (150) C MICHIGAN (-1 | 52.5) [SU:7-4 | ATS:5-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 1:00 PM on ESPN3 - KELLY/SHORTS STADIUM (MOUNT PLEASANT, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF W MICHIGAN 36.2 21 40-194 [4.9] 28-19-267 [9.6] 12.7 23.5 19 35-149 [4.3] 34-18-233 [6.9] 16.3 +5 +12.7 C MICHIGAN 25.6 22 41-167 [4.1] 27-17-220 [8.2] 15.1 22.4 18 32-119 [3.7] 33-18-209 [6.4] 14.6 -5 +3.2

GAME TRENDS• C MICHIGAN is 8-1 UNDER(L5Y) - as favorite of 7 or less points

(151) TULANE [SU:3-7 | ATS:4-6] AT (152) EAST CAROLINA (-18 | 56.5) [SU:6-3 | ATS:4-5]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - DOWDY-FICKLEN STADIUM (GREENVILLE, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TULANE 18.3 20 36-161 [4.5] 36-20-196 [5.5] 19.5 29.7 20 38-166 [4.3] 29-17-215 [7.3] 12.8 +4 -11.4EAST CAROLINA 37.0 29 34-185 [5.5] 48-30-368 [7.6] 14.9 26.4 21 31-103 [3.3] 40-23-264 [6.5] 13.9 -4 +10.6

GAME TRENDS• EAST CAROLINA is 9-3-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(CS)









29


(153) BOSTON COLLEGE [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4] AT (154) FLORIDA ST (-19 | 56.5) [SU:10-0 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on ABC/ESPN2 - DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM (TALLAHASSE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOSTON COLLEGE 26.6 19 49-264 [5.4] 19-10-135 [6.9] 15.0 21.9 17 31-96 [3.1] 32-20-227 [7.1] 14.7 -3 +4.7 FLORIDA ST (1) 37.1 23 31-128 [4.2] 38-25-318 [8.3] 12.0 22.8 20 38-140 [3.6] 34-19-246 [7.2] 16.9 -1 +14.3

As coach Jimbo Fisher said after hanging on to beat Notre Dame. “..these are a special group of kids.” Florida State might not be the best team in the country, but like a fighter who never quits, if you don’t knockout the Seminoles, they get off the mat and keep fighting until they emerge victorious. Since Week 4, Florida State has outscored teams by 14.1 PPG in the second half. The Noles are 11-2 ATS at home after seven or more wins. Boston College was no match for Louisville two weeks ago and with Florida State’s more explosive offense, this will be a test for the Eagles. B.C. is 0-6 ATS away off an ACC setback.

GAME TRENDS• FLORIDA ST is 9-3 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - VS Non-ranked team• BOSTON COLLEGE is 5-11 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - All Games• BOSTON COLLEGE is 15-3 UNDER(L5Y) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9

yards per attempt(CS)

(155) PENN ST (-6.5 | 44) [SU:6-4 | ATS:5-4-1] AT (156) ILLINOIS [SU:4-6 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM on ESPN2 - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PENN ST 21.3 19 35-103 [2.9] 39-21-237 [6.2] 16.0 16.2 14 33-83 [2.5] 32-16-182 [5.7] 16.4 -1 +5.1 ILLINOIS 25.6 18 31-105 [3.4] 35-22-256 [7.2] 14.1 36.0 24 50-267 [5.3] 28-17-227 [8.0] 13.7 -7 -10.4

GAME TRENDS• ILLINOIS is 3-10 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)

(157) WISCONSIN (-10 | 51.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-5] AT (158) IOWA [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on ABC/ESPN2 - KINNICK STADIUM (IOWA CITY, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WISCONSIN (14) 39.0 22 47-351 [7.5] 22-12-142 [6.5] 12.6 15.3 13 34-97 [2.9] 26-12-147 [5.7] 15.9 -3 +23.7 IOWA 28.1 21 40-163 [4.1] 34-21-236 [7.0] 14.2 22.5 16 37-148 [4.0] 29-15-177 [6.1] 14.4 -2 +5.6

Though they would never say anything publically, the Iowa coaches have to nervous facing Wisconsin this week, even at Kinnick Stadium. Melvin Gordon is the Mike Trout of college football. Exciting, explosive and capable of going deep on any carry (pitch) to alter the scoreboard. While many questioned if the Badgers defense was really No.1 in total defense, holding Nebraska to 180 yards speaks volumes. For Iowa, a sweep of the Wisconsin and Nebraska, combined with one Minnesota loss, would send the Hawkeyes to Indianapolis. Iowa has to play great defense and hit big plays on offense. Check this out: Iowa is 22-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 rushing yards a carry.

GAME TRENDS• WISCONSIN is 9-3 ATS(L3Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)• IOWA is 4-8 ATS(L2Y) at HOME - All Games• IOWA is 8-2 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against good teams with 80%+ winning pct(CS)

(159) MARSHALL (-20 | 68) [SU:10-0 | ATS:7-2-1] AT (160) UAB [SU:5-5 | ATS:5-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM - LEGION FIELD (BIRMINGHAM, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MARSHALL (18) 47.1 26 41-294 [7.2] 30-18-273 [9.0] 12.0 16.3 20 40-142 [3.5] 34-18-180 [5.3] 19.8 +2 +30.8 UAB 33.5 22 50-197 [3.9] 28-17-231 [8.3] 12.8 31.2 19 41-177 [4.3] 30-16-222 [7.3] 12.8 -4 +2.3

GAME TRENDS• UAB is 11-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 7 points per

game(CS)






30




(161) LOUISIANA TECH (-12 | 67.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:8-2] AT (162) OLD DOMINION [SU:4-6 | ATS:2-8]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 1:00 PM - SB BALLARD STADIUM (NORFOLK, VA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LOUISIANA TECH 36.2 20 34-139 [4.0] 35-21-259 [7.3] 11.0 24.1 19 37-128 [3.5] 35-21-214 [6.0] 14.2 +8 +12.1 OLD DOMINION 33.1 23 30-149 [5.0] 37-23-293 [8.0] 13.4 40.1 26 48-237 [4.9] 28-20-241 [8.4] 11.9 +1 -7.0

GAME TRENDS• LOUISIANA TECH is 8-2 ATS(CS) - All Games

(163) NEW MEXICO [SU:3-7 | ATS:5-5] AT (164) COLORADO ST (-21.5 | 64.5) [SU:9-1 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 1:30 PM - HUGHES STADIUM (FORT COLLINS, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW MEXICO 27.6 18 51-319 [6.2] 13-7-87 [6.7] 14.7 34.3 25 46-275 [6.0] 28-17-222 [7.9] 14.5 +4 -6.7 COLORADO ST (22) 34.9 23 34-166 [4.9] 33-22-314 [9.5] 13.8 23.4 23 38-171 [4.5] 38-21-254 [6.7] 18.2 +1 +11.5

GAME TRENDS• COLORADO ST is 10-0-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than


(165) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO [SU:3-7 | ATS:3-7] AT (166) W KENTUCKY (-9 | 57.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM - LT SMITH STADIUM (BOWLING GREEN, KY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 16.4 17 37-117 [3.2] 30-17-171 [5.6] 17.6 23.9 19 41-142 [3.5] 30-17-212 [7.1] 14.8 -1 -7.5 W KENTUCKY 41.6 26 33-160 [4.8] 43-29-352 [8.2] 12.3 39.8 26 47-235 [5.0] 31-20-273 [8.9] 12.8 +2 +1.8

GAME TRENDS• TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 12-3 UNDER(L5Y) - VS CUSA

(167) BOISE ST (-12.5 | 54.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-5] AT (168) WYOMING [SU:4-6 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 10:15 PM on ESPN2 - WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM (LARAMIE, WY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOISE ST 37.7 26 44-210 [4.8] 35-24-300 [8.5] 13.5 29.8 18 35-158 [4.5] 33-19-229 [6.8] 13.0 0 +7.9 WYOMING 20.9 18 36-159 [4.4] 30-17-221 [7.3] 18.2 29.5 22 38-188 [4.9] 30-19-235 [7.8] 14.3 -1 -8.6

Boise State remained in charge of winning the Mountain Division after awaking from a deep slumber Saturday and trailing San Diego State 20-0 halfway through the second quarter. The Broncos went into another gear and won 38-29 as 14-point home favorites. Boise State could be tested again with Wyoming coming off a bye and the weather this time of year in Laramie is unpredictable, which could level the playing field. The Broncos are 25-12 ATS away versus teams with losing records. The Cowboys have lost five of their last six (2-4 ATS) and would need an unnatural game from its offense which is averaging only 15.4 PPG at home. Wyoming is 0-4 (1-3 ATS) hosting Boise State.

GAME TRENDS• BOISE ST is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against low-scoring teams averaging 21 PPG or less(CS)• WYOMING is 3-8 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - VS MWC• BOISE ST is 13-2 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - VS MWC

(169) TEXAS TECH [SU:3-7 | ATS:4-6] AT (170) IOWA ST (-1 | 69.5) [SU:2-7 | ATS:4-5]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM - JACK TRICE STADIUM (AMES, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS TECH 28.6 24 29-145 [5.0] 47-28-328 [7.0] 16.5 41.6 26 50-260 [5.2] 31-18-244 [8.0] 12.1 -9 -13.0IOWA ST 24.4 22 32-112 [3.5] 42-24-250 [5.9] 14.8 37.8 27 45-244 [5.4] 37-23-250 [6.8] 13.1 -1 -13.4

GAME TRENDS• TEXAS TECH is 7-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against weak rushing defenses yielding more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)








31


(171) OLE MISS (-3 | 45.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:7-3] AT (172) ARKANSAS [SU:5-5 | ATS:8-2]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on CBS - RAZORBACK STADIUM (FAYETTEVILLE, AR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OLE MISS (8) 33.4 22 37-174 [4.7] 33-21-273 [8.2] 13.4 11.9 18 37-129 [3.4] 31-18-182 [5.8] 26.1 +13 +21.5 ARKANSAS 34.0 23 43-233 [5.5] 29-17-200 [6.9] 12.7 22.2 17 34-127 [3.8] 29-16-214 [7.5] 15.4 0 +11.8

The Rebels have to win twice and pray Auburn has another miracle in them when they face Alabama for Mississippi to win the SEC West. The bye week might have come at the right time because injures and weariness were taking their toll on the defensive front seven for Ole Miss and it is a given Arkansas will test them with their supersized offensive line. The Rebels are 24-12 ATS since 2012. Arkansas broke their 17-game SEC losing streak against LSU 17-0, showcasing what they are capable of. The Razorbacks look to close the season in style and go bowling and are 7-4 and 8-3 ATS when Mississippi is in – The Natural State.

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5

yards per attempt(CS)• MISSISSIPPI is 4-14 ATS(L5Y) - In November• ARKANSAS is 20-9 OVER(L5Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)

(173) OKLAHOMA ST [SU:5-5 | ATS:3-7] AT (174) BAYLOR (-27.5 | 68.5) [SU:8-1 | ATS:7-2]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 7:30 PM on FOX - MCLANE STADIUM (WACO, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA ST 26.3 19 39-140 [3.6] 31-17-227 [7.2] 14.0 30.0 21 37-139 [3.7] 37-22-285 [7.8] 14.1 -8 -3.7 BAYLOR (6) 50.1 30 50-231 [4.6] 39-23-354 [9.0] 11.7 21.0 17 37-108 [2.9] 34-18-214 [6.3] 15.3 +9 +29.1

Baylor cannot turn back the clock, but they can bring the full toolbox for this Big 12 confrontation. Last season, the Bears were 9-0 and ranked third in the country and were drilled by a fired up Oklahoma State crew 49-17. This season, Baylor is still in the hunt not only for another Big 12 title but possibly more and takes on a significantly weaker Cowboys team that is experiencing youthful growing pains in league play. Baylor is 10-1 ATS in Waco the past couple years and might want to hang a big number in this spot. Here is how bad things are for Oklahoma State, in their last 59 possessions, 50 have resulted in punts or turnovers.

GAME TRENDS• BAYLOR is 10-0 ATS(L2Y) at HOME - as favorite of more than 7 points• OKLAHOMA ST is 3-10 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)• BAYLOR is 10-1 OVER(L5Y) - as favorite of more than 20 points

(175) TULSA [SU:2-8 | ATS:3-7] AT (176) HOUSTON (-20 | 57) [SU:5-4 | ATS:5-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:00 PM on ESPN3 - TDECU STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TULSA 23.6 22 40-143 [3.6] 41-22-272 [6.7] 17.6 38.4 21 39-216 [5.6] 31-19-270 [8.7] 12.7 -4 -14.8HOUSTON 27.6 21 37-160 [4.3] 36-22-219 [6.0] 13.7 17.7 17 39-139 [3.5] 30-16-181 [6.1] 18.1 +6 +9.9

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 12-3-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 31.5 PPG(CS)

(177) COLORADO [SU:2-8 | ATS:5-5] AT (178) OREGON (-34.5 | 70) [SU:9-1 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 4:30 PM on PAC12 - AUTZEN STADIUM (EUGENE, OR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF COLORADO 29.8 26 39-162 [4.2] 48-31-299 [6.2] 15.5 38.6 22 36-206 [5.7] 33-19-242 [7.3] 11.6 -9 -8.8 OREGON (3) 46.0 27 43-232 [5.4] 30-20-299 [10.0] 11.5 25.0 25 39-163 [4.2] 40-26-294 [7.3] 18.3 +15 +21.0

GAME TRENDS• COLORADO is 8-2 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards

per attempt(CS)






32




(179) LOUISVILLE [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4] AT (180) NOTRE DAME (-4 | 53) [SU:7-3 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on NBC - NOTRE DAME STADIUM (SOUTH BEND, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LOUISVILLE 31.6 20 39-148 [3.7] 33-19-239 [7.3] 12.2 17.8 15 31-89 [2.9] 33-18-198 [5.9] 16.1 +7 +13.8 NOTRE DAME 35.4 25 38-161 [4.2] 37-23-304 [8.1] 13.1 27.1 20 38-150 [3.9] 34-20-233 [6.9] 14.1 -2 +8.3

The Notre Dame defense is in shambles. After surrendering 12 PPG in their first five contests, they have allowed an alarming 44.2 PPG since. While Everett Golson’s mistakes have made hefty negative contributions, a more telling tale is conceding 547 yards to an offensively-challenged Northwestern team at home. Notre Dame has now lost three of four, is falling apart not only on defense but special teams, and is 20-35 ATS at home vs. winning teams. Coach Bobby Petrino has to be salivating with the thought of facing Notre Dame defense, especially with two weeks to prepare and having the No. 5 total defense in the country. The Cardinals are 10-1 ATS away vs. opponents with .666 or higher win percentage.

GAME TRENDS• LOUISVILLE is 9-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - As underdog• NOTRE DAME is 5-10 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7

yards per point(CS)• NOTRE DAME is 11-0 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than

3.6 yards per carry(CS)

(181) FLA INTERNATIONAL [SU:4-7 | ATS:7-3-1] AT (182) NORTH TEXAS (-3 | 49.5) [SU:3-7 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM - APOGEE STADIUM (DENTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FLA INTERNATIONAL 23.8 17 42-128 [3.1] 27-15-178 [6.6] 12.9 25.5 18 39-160 [4.1] 29-16-212 [7.3] 14.6 +12 -1.7 NORTH TEXAS 28.2 18 39-152 [3.9] 27-15-168 [6.3] 11.3 31.0 19 38-168 [4.4] 31-19-215 [7.0] 12.4 -2 -2.8

GAME TRENDS• FLORIDA INTL is 9-2 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7

yards per point(CS)

(183) STANFORD (-5.5 | 56) [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-6] AT (184) CALIFORNIA [SU:5-5 | ATS:7-3]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 4:00 PM on FS1 - CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUM (BERKELEY, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF STANFORD 23.9 20 34-145 [4.3] 31-20-233 [7.4] 15.8 16.5 17 35-106 [3.0] 32-19-171 [5.3] 16.8 -10 +7.4 CALIFORNIA 40.7 26 36-144 [4.0] 43-27-352 [8.1] 12.2 39.7 28 35-143 [4.1] 48-32-375 [7.8] 13.0 0 +1.0

It’s known as the Big Game, unfortunately the only thing big about this matchup is the winner is bowl eligible with these two 5-5 squads. The Stanford offensive line was weaker this year and not one running back ever made them appear better they were. The Cardinal defensive numbers are up to usual standards, but they were not clutch when called upon late. Stanford is 6-5 and 8-3 ATS at Cal. The Golden Bears made a late rally at USC, but still managed to fall for the fourth time in five tries. What really adds to the intrigue of this year’s rivalry contest is Cal can score (40.7 PPG) and cannot stop anybody (39.7), with Stanford the complete opposite.

GAME TRENDS• STANFORD is 10-3 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 29 PPG(CS)• CALIFORNIA is 3-11 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per

carry(CS)• STANFORD is 15-2 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - VS Non-ranked team

(185) APPALACHIAN ST [SU:5-5 | ATS:4-5] AT (186) LA LAFAYETTE (-9.5 | 63) [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 5:00 PM on ESPN3 - CAJUN FIELD (LAFAYETTE, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF APPALACHIAN ST 34.8 24 45-246 [5.5] 30-18-222 [7.4] 13.4 28.4 18 35-157 [4.5] 28-17-197 [6.9] 12.5 +1 +6.4 LA LAFAYETTE 30.9 21 42-231 [5.5] 29-18-196 [6.9] 13.8 27.7 20 35-141 [4.0] 36-23-284 [7.9] 15.3 -1 +3.2

GAME TRENDS• LA LAFAYETTE is 9-0-1 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3

yards per point(CS)







33


(187) ARIZONA [SU:8-2 | ATS:3-7] AT (188) UTAH (-4 | 53.5) [SU:7-3 | ATS:8-2]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on ESPN - RICE-ECCLES STADIUM (SALT LAKE CITY, UT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA (15) 35.6 27 40-185 [4.6] 44-26-307 [6.9] 13.8 26.1 24 41-159 [3.9] 38-25-286 [7.5] 17.0 +7 +9.5 UTAH (20) 31.4 18 44-177 [4.0] 28-17-190 [6.9] 11.7 23.8 22 41-148 [3.6] 36-21-240 [6.6] 16.3 +6 +7.6

Utah’s only chance to win what has turned out to be a wacky Pac-12 South is being involved in a five-way tie with particular teams picking up losses. That starts by knocking off Arizona at home and having the No.2 scoring defense in the conference makes that a possibility. Utah cannot try and trade touchdowns with Arizona and is 8-2 ATS this year. Those cardiac ‘Cats are at it again with last second field goal in Tucson to nip Washington. Despite their 8-2 record, Arizona is just 3-7 ATS and 2-10 ATS in November the last three seasons. Arizona wins the South if it they win out, UCLA beats USC and Stanford beats UCLA.

GAME TRENDS• UTAH is 8-2 ATS(CS) - All Games• ARIZONA is 2-10 ATS(L3Y) - In November• ARIZONA is 9-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS)

(189) OREGON ST [SU:5-5 | ATS:3-7] AT (190) WASHINGTON (-6 | 53.5) [SU:6-5 | ATS:5-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 10:30 PM on PAC12 - HUSKY STADIUM (SEATTLE, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OREGON ST 27.6 21 32-122 [3.8] 38-24-277 [7.3] 14.5 29.5 22 34-147 [4.4] 39-22-235 [6.1] 12.9 +4 -1.9 WASHINGTON 30.3 20 46-193 [4.2] 27-17-184 [6.9] 12.4 26.5 23 40-138 [3.4] 38-24-275 [7.2] 15.6 +10 +3.8

GAME TRENDS• WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - Against decent offensive teams averaging more

than 5.7 yards per play(CS)

(191) GEORGIA ST [SU:1-9 | ATS:4-6] AT (192) CLEMSON (-41 | 57) [SU:7-3 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CLEMSON, SC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GEORGIA ST 24.1 21 33-97 [3.0] 37-22-288 [7.9] 16.0 43.8 26 50-309 [6.2] 26-17-191 [7.3] 11.4 -18 -19.7CLEMSON 29.8 20 41-141 [3.4] 36-23-266 [7.4] 13.7 19.4 14 36-107 [3.0] 28-14-155 [5.6] 13.5 0 +10.4

GAME TRENDS• GEORGIA ST is 11-2 ATS(L3Y) - AS underdog of more than 14 points

(193) WASHINGTON ST [SU:3-7 | ATS:4-6] AT (194) ARIZONA ST (-16 | 68.5) [SU:8-2 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 1:00 PM on PAC12 - SUN DEVIL STADIUM (TEMPE, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WASHINGTON ST 33.8 28 20-44 [2.2] 65-44-480 [7.4] 15.5 38.0 22 36-146 [4.1] 36-24-308 [8.5] 11.9 -10 -4.2 ARIZONA ST (13) 35.7 24 39-183 [4.6] 36-21-282 [7.7] 13.0 25.9 20 41-173 [4.3] 32-19-233 [7.2] 15.7 +7 +9.8

GAME TRENDS• WASHINGTON ST is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than

4.4 yards per carry(CS)

(195) SOUTH FLORIDA [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-5] AT (196) MEMPHIS (-19 | 46) [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 4:00 PM on ESPNEWS - LIBERTY BOWL (MEMPHIS, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SOUTH FLORIDA 18.6 15 32-119 [3.7] 28-13-186 [6.7] 16.4 27.7 22 40-182 [4.5] 31-21-226 [7.3] 14.7 -2 -9.1 MEMPHIS 34.4 22 46-189 [4.1] 31-20-234 [7.6] 12.3 17.5 19 35-133 [3.7] 37-20-214 [5.8] 19.8 +9 +16.9

GAME TRENDS• SOUTH FLORIDA is 14-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 22

PPG(CS)







34




(197) FLA ATLANTIC [SU:3-7 | ATS:5-4] AT (198) MIDDLE TENN ST (-7 | 59.5) [SU:5-5 | ATS:5-5]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 7:00 PM - FLOYD STADIUM (MURFREESBORO, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FLA ATLANTIC 22.6 19 37-153 [4.2] 31-17-195 [6.3] 15.4 34.7 23 41-216 [5.3] 33-18-241 [7.4] 13.2 -3 -12.1MIDDLE TENN ST 32.3 21 44-200 [4.5] 30-19-235 [7.9] 13.5 32.0 24 42-171 [4.1] 37-23-282 [7.5] 14.2 -3 +0.3

GAME TRENDS• FL ATLANTIC is 8-1 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4

yards per carry(CS)

(199) CINCINNATI (-10 | 55.5) [SU:6-3 | ATS:5-4] AT (200) CONNECTICUT [SU:2-7 | ATS:2-7]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 8:00 PM on CBSSN - RENTSCHLER FIELD (HARTFORD, CT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CINCINNATI 36.9 24 33-157 [4.7] 39-24-323 [8.3] 13.0 31.6 24 40-203 [5.0] 36-22-284 [7.9] 15.4 0 +5.3 CONNECTICUT 17.3 16 32-100 [3.1] 30-17-191 [6.3] 16.8 27.7 19 38-148 [3.9] 31-19-221 [7.1] 13.3 -7 -10.4

GAME TRENDS• CONNECTICUT is 10-3 UNDER(L3Y) - More than 6 days rest

(201) LA MONROE (-8 | 54) [SU:3-7 | ATS:3-7] AT (202) NEW MEXICO ST [SU:2-8 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 4:00 PM on ESPN3 - AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUM (LAS CRUCES, NM)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA MONROE 19.5 19 32-74 [2.3] 43-25-269 [6.2] 17.6 27.6 19 40-159 [4.0] 29-17-204 [7.1] 13.2 0 -8.1 NEW MEXICO ST 24.2 22 38-167 [4.3] 38-23-244 [6.5] 17.0 37.1 24 51-317 [6.1] 23-14-145 [6.4] 12.5 -13 -12.9

GAME TRENDS• NEW MEXICO ST is 10-1 OVER(L5Y) - More than 6 days rest

(203) SMU [SU:0-9 | ATS:3-6] AT (204) UCF (-27.5 | 47) [SU:6-3 | ATS:5-4]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 12:00 PM on ESPNEWS - BRIGHT HOUSE NETWORKS STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SMU 10.0 16 29-87 [3.0] 38-21-187 [4.9] 27.4 43.1 27 44-229 [5.2] 33-21-299 [9.1] 12.3 -13 -33.1UCF 26.3 19 39-117 [3.0] 31-17-232 [7.6] 13.3 19.8 17 35-120 [3.5] 33-18-176 [5.3] 14.9 -3 +6.5

GAME TRENDS• UCF is 10-3 ATS(L5Y) - as favorite of more than 20 points

(205) USC [SU:7-3 | ATS:6-4] AT (206) UCLA (-3.5 | 61) [SU:8-2 | ATS:3-7]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 8:00 PM on ABC - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF USC (24) 35.2 23 40-163 [4.0] 35-24-295 [8.5] 13.0 23.3 23 34-135 [4.0] 43-25-264 [6.2] 17.1 +9 +11.9 UCLA (11) 34.7 25 45-216 [4.8] 34-24-273 [8.1] 14.1 27.9 23 39-163 [4.1] 39-24-247 [6.3] 14.7 0 +6.8

For all the criticism UCLA has endured (mostly deserved) this season, they are still on track to win 10 games and the South Division, which is what many preseason experts figured would happen. The journey has been anything but smooth; however, the Bruins have won four in a row (three on the road) and have the offense with QB Brett Hundley to make this work. UCLA is 6-5 and 8-3 ATS in home uniforms versus their city rivals. Hard to imagine a USC quarterback not receiving pub, yet this is the case for Cody Kessler, who quietly has put together a fine season. Both these Pac-12 clubs have flawed defenses, making the better quarterback your winner.

GAME TRENDS• UCLA is 9-3 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - OU line of 60 or more• USC is 5-11 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - All Games• USC is 12-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)








35


COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(207) FRESNO ST [SU:4-6 | ATS:5-5] AT (208) NEVADA (-7.5 | 60.5) [SU:6-4 | ATS:6-4]

NOVEMBER 22, 2014 10:30 PM on ESPNU - MACKAY STADIUM (RENO, NV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FRESNO ST 28.3 21 39-191 [4.9] 37-21-225 [6.1] 14.7 35.5 22 46-221 [4.8] 30-18-270 [9.1] 13.8 -4 -7.2 NEVADA 30.7 23 44-195 [4.4] 34-21-220 [6.5] 13.5 27.1 24 36-171 [4.8] 38-26-277 [7.2] 16.5 +10 +3.6

GAME TRENDS• NEVADA is 7-1 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest

(209) UNLV [SU:2-9 | ATS:4-7] AT (210) HAWAII (-10 | 55.5) [SU:3-8 | ATS:4-6-1]NOVEMBER 22, 2014 11:00 PM - ALOHA STADIUM (HONOLULU, HI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UNLV 20.3 20 37-129 [3.5] 38-20-251 [6.6] 18.7 37.6 25 52-279 [5.4] 27-16-234 [8.6] 13.6 -8 -17.3HAWAII 19.5 19 39-136 [3.5] 37-18-210 [5.7] 17.7 26.0 21 43-184 [4.3] 31-18-237 [7.6] 16.2 -5 -6.5

GAME TRENDS• HAWAII is 10-2 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - VS MWC

(301) OHIO U (-2.5 | 49) [SU:5-5 | ATS:5-5] AT (302) MIAMI OHIO [SU:2-9 | ATS:7-4]NOVEMBER 25, 2014 7:00 PM on ESPN2 - FRED YAGER STADIUM (OXFORD, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OHIO U 20.8 19 39-159 [4.1] 32-17-216 [6.7] 18.0 25.6 21 35-135 [3.9] 37-22-273 [7.3] 15.9 -2 -4.8 MIAMI OHIO 22.5 21 30-103 [3.4] 39-19-283 [7.2] 17.2 32.5 23 39-202 [5.1] 33-21-240 [7.2] 13.6 +1 -10.0

GAME TRENDS• MIAMI OH is 10-0 UNDER(L3Y) - Against lesser-scoring teams averaging 23 PPG or less(CS)

(303) AKRON (-5 | 43.5) [SU:4-6 | ATS:2-8] AT (304) KENT ST [SU:1-9 | ATS:4-6]NOVEMBER 25, 2014 7:00 PM on ESPN2 - DIX STADIUM (KENT, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF AKRON 21.7 22 30-117 [3.9] 44-24-252 [5.7] 17.0 24.4 22 40-166 [4.1] 34-18-220 [6.6] 15.8 -3 -2.7 KENT ST 15.3 18 25-79 [3.1] 40-22-228 [5.7] 20.1 29.5 23 46-218 [4.7] 29-17-220 [7.6] 14.8 -5 -14.2

GAME TRENDS• AKRON is 11-2 UNDER(L5Y) - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.6 yards per

carry(CS)





36




COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP WEEKLY TRENDSTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

$880

$980

$680

$700

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

$680

$890

$680

$680

$680

$990

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

$890

$990

(191) GEORGIA ST AT (192) CLEMSONGEORGIA ST is 11-2 ATS(L3Y) - AS underdog of more than 14 points( $880 Profit with a 61.5% ROI )

(159) MARSHALL AT (160) UABMARSHALL is 12-2-1 ATS(L2Y) - as favorite of more than 14 points( $980 Profit with a 59.4% ROI )

(179) LOUISVILLE AT (180) NOTRE DAMELOUISVILLE is 9-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per play(CS)( $680 Profit with a 56.2% ROI )

(185) APPALACHIAN ST AT (186) LA LAFAYETTELA LAFAYETTE is 7-0-1 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - as favorite of more than 7 points( $700 Profit with a 79.6% ROI )

(209) UNLV AT (210) HAWAIIHAWAII is 9-2 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per point(CS)( $680 Profit with a 56.2% ROI )

(159) MARSHALL AT (160) UABUAB is 10-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less than 12.35 yards per point(CS)( $890 Profit with a 73.6% ROI )

(139) INDIANA AT (140) OHIO STINDIANA is 2-9 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - VS BIG10( $680 Profit with a 56.2% ROI )

(129) S ALABAMA AT (130) SOUTH CAROLINAS ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS(L3Y) - In November( $680 Profit with a 56.2% ROI )

(199) CINCINNATI AT (200) CONNECTICUTCONNECTICUT is 2-9-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 29 PPG(CS)( $680 Profit with a 51.5% ROI )

(195) SOUTH FLORIDA AT (196) MEMPHISSOUTH FLORIDA is 11-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per play(CS)( $990 Profit with a 75.0% ROI )

(181) FLA INTERNATIONAL AT (182) NORTH TEXASFLORIDA INTL is 10-1 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against poor teams with 30%+ winning pct(CS)( $890 Profit with a 73.6% ROI )

(145) SYRACUSE AT (146) PITTSBURGHPITTSBURGH is 11-1-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 15.3 yards per point(CS)( $990 Profit with a 69.2% ROI )

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