1

Ethanol outlook REPoRt FOR THE WEEK OF:

taBlE oF ContEntS1. Commentary

2 Top Ethanol News

4. Volume and Open Interest

5. Ethanol Futures & Forwards

8. Ethanol (Platts) Swaps

10. Rotterdam Ethanol

11. Ethanol vs Gasoline

12. Ethanol vs Corn

13. Ethanol vs Sugar

14. Rotterdam Biodiesel

17. Ethanol Industry Data

18. Contract & Contact Info

USDA forecasts very tight corn sup-plies but ethanol profit margins so far remain stable -- The USDA in its latest WASDE report released on August 11 cut its U.S. corn production estimate sharply by 4.1% to 12.914 billion bushels. The reason for that crop size cut was the USDA’s cut in its yield estimate to 153.0 bushels per acre from July’s 158.7 bushels. The yield cut was due to the very hot weather seen in July. The smaller crop size forced the USDA to cut its ending stocks estimate to 714 million bushels from 870 million bushels in July. That left the stocks/use ratio at an extremely tight 5.4%, which is even tighter than last year’s 7.1% and is the second tightest in recent decades behind 5.0% in 1995/96.

The tightness in corn supplies is mainly due to strong demand that will more than soak up this summer’s large corn crop, which is expected to be the third largest ever and only 1.5% smaller than the record crop of 13.110 billion bushels seen two years ago in 2009/10. The USDA is forecasting demand in the 2010/11 market-ing year at 13.160 billion bushels, which is larger than the crop size and accounts for the expected draw-down in ending stocks. Ethanol producers are expected to use 5.100 billion bushels of corn, or 39.5% of this summer’s crop. However, some rationing is required to reduce demand and that is mainly being seen in reduced export and animal feed demand. The bottom line is that there will be enough corn for ethanol producers from this summer’s crop. In addition, profit margins currently look adequate as long as ethanol prices continue to keep pace with any further strength in corn prices.

Weekly EIA report shows ethanol in-ventories falling to new 6-1/2 month low -- In a supportive factor for ethanol prices, ethanol inventories have fallen by a total of 7.1% in the last two reporting weeks to a 6-1/2

month low of 17.582 million barrels, which is down by 15.5% from May’s record high. Mean-while, ethanol production is running in the upper half of this year’s range and in the latest week fell by 1.0% to 899,000 barrels per day.

Ethanol Market Action -- Sep ethanol futures prices last week rallied to post a new 3-week high and closed up 4.9 cents (+1.8%) at $2.834 per gallon. Bullish factors last week in-cluded the 0.7% rally in gasoline prices and the 1.3% rally in corn prices. Ethanol also received support in the last two weeks from the weekly EIA reports showing an overall 7.1% drop in inventories to a 6-1/2 month low.

Ethanol/Gasoline -- Sep gasoline futures prices last week consolidated after the re-cent plunge and closed the week up 1.9 cents (+0.7%) at $2.8412 per gallon. Gasoline saw some short-covering but remains in a gener-ally bearish mode due to the recent plunge in global equities and worries about weaker global economic growth and fuel demand. Sep etha-nol prices closed last week at a 0.7 cent per gal-lon discount to gasoline prices, which equates to a 45.7-cent ethanol discount including the 45-cent ethanol tax credit. Ethanol/Corn -- Sep corn futures prices are consolidating toward the upper end of July’s range and closed up 9.25 cents (+1.3%) last week at $7.11 per bushel. Corn prices continue to see support from the hot summer weather and concern about yields. The Sep ethanol-corn crush margin last week rose by 1.6 cents to 29.5 cents/gallon. Including DDG, the Sep corn for ethanol crush margin rose by 1.0 cents to 65.2 cents/gallon.

Ethanol Calendar• Aug 24: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report• Aug 30: EIA Monthly Ethanol Report• Aug 31: USDA WASDE Crop Supply-Demand• Sep 5: Next CME Ethanol Outlook Report• Sep 12: USDA WASDE Crop Supply-Demand

Ethanol ClosesLast FridayClose

WeeklyChange

Ethanol & DDG Futures

CBOT Ethanol Future (U11) $2.834 +$0.049

CBOT Ethanol Forward (U11) $2.7550 +$0.0750

NY Physical Ethanol (U11) $2.8800 +$0.0550

Chicago (Platts) Swap Future (U11)

$2.7920 +$0.0620

NY (Platts) Swap Future (U11) $2.8800 +$0.0550

Rotterdam Platts T2 Ethanol (U11) €608 €0

Nymex Biodiesel Futures

Nymex RME Biodiesel (U11) $1454 -$1

Nymex FAME Biodiesel (U11)

$1371 $0

Spreads (cents per gallon)

Ethanol-Gasoline (U11) -0.7¢ +3.0¢

Ethanol - Corn Margin (U11)

29.5¢ +1.6¢

Ethanol - Corn + DDG Margin(U11) 65.2¢ +1.0¢

August 22, 2011

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

2

top Weekly Ethanol news

TOP ETHANOL NEWS CONTINUES ON NEXT PAGE

Congress leaves for August recess without passing ethanol deal

Aug 8 - UNICA - Unfortunately, there was an important piece of the debt puzzle that got left out of the final product, and that was the bipartisan effort to end the ethanol tax credit and import tariff...

Obama administration to stimulate biofuel industry

Aug 16 - Reuters - Under the plan sponsored by the Navy, Energy and Agriculture departments, companies will be invited to bid on...

Vilsack: USDA will continue to push for blender pump expansion

Aug 18 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The USDA’s Aug. 17 announcement of 900 Rural Energy for America Program grants...

Growth Energy reacts to President’s speech at Rural Economic Forum

Aug 16 - Growth Energy - Growth Energy CEO Tom Buis released the following statement in response to remarks given by President...

Washington’s new era

Aug 15 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The recent partisan battle over raising the amount of money the federal government is allowed to borrow to pay its bills is merely a symptom of a larger...

US Government to invest $510M in advanced, drop-in biofuels

Aug 16 - Biofuels Digest - US announces historic investment to jump-start “drop-in” biofuels at commercial scale....

Ethanol, petroleum industries explain concerns over proposed RFS

Aug 11 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Members of the ethanol and petroleum industries voiced their concerns over the U.S. EPA’s proposed renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes for 2012...

CFTC approves CME plan to raise daily corn trading limit

Aug 9 - NASDAQ - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Tuesday approved a controversial proposal to increase the...

Increased corn trade limit sparks volatility concerns for some

Aug 12 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has approved a request from the CME Group...

Biofuels-related investment, M&A activity passes $10B for 2011

Aug 18 - Biofuels Digest - In Florida, Biofuels Digest released its Biofuels DealFlow recap for 2011, tracking private sector...

From farm to biorefinery: Ethanol production efficiency improves

Aug 18 - RFA - In the second part of RFA’s series on the improving efficiencies of corn ethanol production, the focus will be...

More ethanol, fewer inputs, increasing benefits: More corn on fewer acres, less water

Aug 9 - RFA - Over the past 30 years, and in particular in the past decade, ethanol production has quietly become increasingly efficient....

The selling of renewable fuels

Aug 19 - Biofuels Digest - In all the discussions about renewable fuels R&D, engineering, policy, finance, and construction, the...

USDA, DOE award 10 R&D grants for advanced bioenergy feedstocks

Aug 12 - Biofuels Digest - In Washington, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that the USDA and DOE have awarded...

USDA, DOE fund further energy crop research

Aug 12 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced Aug. 11 that his agency and the U.S. DOE will provide $12.2 million to fund 10 research projects...

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

3

Corn’s new sacred cow?

Aug 11 - National Journal - You wouldn’t know it from the political cloud over ethanol, but the federal government will keep...

Investors seeing gold in farmland, infrastructure

Aug 20 - Reuters - The overall economy may be struggling against a double-dip recession but in farm country the boom times have rarely been better....

USDA drops projected corn yield sharply due to hot, dry weather

Aug 11 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - As expected, the USDA dropped its corn production forecast in the Aug. 11 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates Report, dropping...

Study finds beef, dairy farm profits rose since RFS expansion

Aug 9 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Economic conditions have improved for beef and dairy farmers since the implementation of the expanded renewable fuel standard (RFS) in 2007...

Gene breakthrough could unlock ethanol potential

Aug 11 - Renewable Energy News - The federal government has stepped up its efforts both financially and in the lab in an effort to boost American biofuel production....

Analysis: Recession could tip U.S. oil use into permanent decline

Aug 14 - Reuters - As a U.S. economic rebound stalls and threatens to spiral into recession, oil demand in the world’s top consumer...

High energy output found from algae-based fuel, but ‘No Silver Bullet’

Aug 10 - Science Daily - Algae-based fuel is one of many options among the array of possible future energy sources....

LanzaTech, Harsco agree to develop ethanol-from-steel gas process

Aug 16 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Worldwide industrial solutions company Harsco Corp. and clean energy technology company LanzaTech announce the signing of a strategic alliance...

Transformative technologies 2011: Solazyme, Gevo, Amyris, Coskata nab top seeds

Aug 15 - Biofuels Digest - In Florida, Amyris, Gevo, Solazyme and Coskata landed the top four seeds in the 2011 Transformative Technologies tournament, which kicks off today...

ZeaChem forms strategic partnership with Chrysler Group

Aug 15 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - ZeaChem Inc. announced it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Chrysler Group...

Ineos first to close USDA loan guarantee for cellulosic ethanol

Aug 18 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Shortly after a visit to the facility by Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, the USDA and Ineos Bio announced that Ineos New Planet BioEnergy LLC’s...

U.S. offers Abengoa $134 million loan aid for cellulosic

Aug 19 - Reuters - The Energy Department said on Friday it has offered a conditional commitment for $133.9 million in loan aid...

Solazyme, Bunge in JV for 100K tonnes of renewable oils in Brazil by 2013

Aug 9 - Biofuels Digest - In California, Solazyme and Bunge announced the formation of a joint venture focused...

UNICA sees mounting pressure to end U.S. ethanol import tariff and subsidies

Aug 16 - UNICA - A prominent voice added weight to the ever more prevalent view that the days of ethanol subsidies and a hefty...

Petrobras boosts ethanol investment to increase capacity

Aug 16 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Petrobras announced recently that its biofuels division will invest heavily in the....

Petrobras sees $570 mln for ethanol acquisitions by 2015

Aug 11 - Reuters - Brazil’s state-led oil company Petrobras plans to spend $570 million over five years for ethanol-industry acquisitions, about a third of its planned biofuel investment during the period...

Revised estimate for 2011/2012 sugarcane harvest sets total South-Central Brazil harvest at 510.24 million tons

Aug 11 - UNICA - The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA), in partnership with the Center for Sugarcane...

2011 DDGS exports to Japan up 45%, likely to set records

Aug 16 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The U.S. Grains Council reports sales of U.S. DDGS to Japan for 2011 are on pace to set...

top Weekly Ethanol news (continued)

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

4

CBot Ethanol Forward Month Swaps - Monthly Volume & open Interest

CBot Ethanol Futures - Monthly Volume & open Interest

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Volume

Open Interest

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Volume

Open Interest

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

5

CBot Ethanol and Forward Month Swap Futures - Closing Prices

Closes for: Friday August 19 CBOT Ethanol Forward Month SwapSymbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest

FZEQ11 2.7800 +0.0250 2.7800 2.7800 0 5919

FZEU11 2.7550 +0.0550 2.7550 2.7550 330 4520

FZEV11 2.7050 +0.0570 2.7050 2.7050 175 4841

FZEX11 2.6730 +0.0550 2.6730 2.6730 234 4830

FZEZ11 2.6050 +0.0570 2.6050 2.6050 175 5091

FZEF12 2.5910 +0.0370 2.5910 2.5910 135 4040

FZEG12 2.5940 +0.0370 2.5940 2.5940 135 3958

FZEH12 2.6020 +0.0360 2.6020 2.6020 135 3752

FZEJ12 2.6120 +0.0400 2.6120 2.6120 20 1277

FZEK12 2.6180 +0.0440 2.6180 2.6180 20 1191

FZEM12 2.6270 +0.0460 2.6270 2.6270 20 1186

FZEN12 2.5870 +0.0590 2.5870 2.5870 0 214

FZEQ12 2.4860 +0.0470 2.4860 2.4860 0 185

FZEU12 2.3910 +0.0500 2.3910 2.3910 0 185

FZEV12 2.3960 +0.0500 2.3960 2.3960 0 111

FZEX12 2.3780 +0.0500 2.3780 2.3780 0 111

FZEZ12 2.3500 +0.0500 2.3500 2.3500 0 111

Daily Volume and Open Interest 1,379 41,522

Closes for: Friday August 19 CBOT Ethanol Futures Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest

ZEU11 2.834 +0.055 2.853 2.811 202 885

ZEV11 2.755 +0.055 2.766 2.730 186 1384

ZEX11 2.705 +0.057 2.718 2.685 25 1219

ZEZ11 2.673 +0.055 2.680 2.650 98 1367

ZEF12 2.605 +0.057 2.611 2.595 33 770

ZEG12 2.591 +0.037 2.598 2.590 20 738

ZEH12 2.594 +0.037 2.598 2.590 17 685

ZEJ12 2.602 +0.036 2.608 2.593 23 553

ZEK12 2.612 +0.040 2.627 2.600 15 311

ZEM12 2.618 +0.044 2.625 2.614 14 516

ZEN12 2.627 +0.046 2.633 2.622 15 528

ZEQ12 2.587 +0.059 2.594 2.581 10 398

ZEU12 2.486 +0.047 2.495 2.486 10 234

ZEV12 2.391 +0.050 2.391 2.390 10 163

ZEX12 2.396 +0.050 2.396 2.396 0 21

ZEZ12 2.378 +0.050 2.378 2.378 0 34

ZEF13 2.350 +0.050 2.350 2.350 5 20

Daily Volume and Open Interest 683 9,826

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

6

CBot Ethanol Futures – Daily & Weekly Charts

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

7

CBot Forward Ethanol Swaps – Daily & Weekly Charts

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

8

nYMEX Chicago and new York Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Closing Prices

Closes for: Friday August 19 NYMEX Chicago Ethanol (Platts) Swap FuturesSymbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest

CUQ11 2.8307 +0.0133 2.8307 2.8307 0 4380

CUU11 2.7920 +0.0530 2.7920 2.7920 131 2824

CUV11 2.7520 +0.0550 2.7520 2.7520 120 2412

CUX11 2.7070 +0.0500 2.7070 2.7070 335 2801

CUZ11 2.6680 +0.0490 2.6680 2.6680 293 2406

CUF12 2.6030 +0.0450 2.6030 2.6030 25 634

CUG12 2.6050 +0.0480 2.6050 2.6050 0 274

CUH12 2.6050 +0.0470 2.6050 2.6050 0 99

CUJ12 2.5810 +0.0390 2.5810 2.5810 0 82

CUK12 2.5870 +0.0390 2.5870 2.5870 0 82

CUM12 2.5860 +0.0380 2.5860 2.5860 0 82

CUN12 2.6320 +0.0700 2.6320 2.6320 0 58

CUQ12 2.6070 +0.0700 2.6070 2.6070 0 39

CUU12 2.5160 +0.0390 2.5160 2.5160 0 39

CUV12 2.4410 +0.0130 2.4410 2.4410 0 76

CUX12 2.4370 +0.0120 2.4370 2.4370 0 76

CUZ12 2.4370 +0.0140 2.4370 2.4370 0 76

Daily Volume and Open Interest 904 16,440

Closes for: Friday August 19 NYMEX New York Ethanol (Platts) Swap FuturesSymbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest

EZQ11 2.9071 +0.0133 2.9071 2.9071 0 399

EZU11 2.8800 +0.0500 2.8800 2.8800 25 350

EZV11 2.8400 +0.0450 2.8400 2.8400 25 195

EZX11 2.7900 +0.0450 2.7900 2.7900 0 70

EZZ11 2.7550 +0.0500 2.7550 2.7550 0 95

Daily Volume and Open Interest 50 1,109

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

9

nYMEX Chicago (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Daily Chart

nYMEX new York (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Daily Chart

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

10

Ethanol (Platts) FoB Rotterdam Swap Futures Including Duty

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

11

CBot Ethanol nearest-Futures versus nYMEX RBoB Gasoline nearest-Futures

Spread: CBot Ethanol Futures - nYMEX RBoB Gasoline Futures ($/gallon)

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11

CBOT Ethanol Futures ($/gal)

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures ($/gal)

Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.314

$/gal

-$1.50

-$1.00

-$0.50

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11 $/gal

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

12

CBot Ethanol nearest-Futures versus CBot Corn nearest-Futures

Spread: CBot Ethanol-Corn and Ethanol-Corn+DDG Crush Margins ($/gallon)

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11

Ethanol Futures ($/gal)

Corn Futures ($/bushel)

Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.752

-$0.50

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11

Ethanol-Corn Crush Profit Margin ($/gallon) = Ethanol Price - (Corn Price / 2.8 gal/bu)

$/gal

Corn for Ethanol Crush Margin (Ethanol-Corn+DDG) (in $/gal) = Ethanol Price -(Corn Price/2.8 gal/bu) + [(DDG Price/lb x (17.5 lb/bu / 2.8 gal/bu)]

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

13

CBot Ethanol Futures versus World Raw Sugar (#11) Futures

Spread: CBot Ethanol Futures minus World Raw Sugar (#11) Futures ($/gallon)

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11

Ethanol Futures ($/gal) (left scale)

Sugar Futures ($/lb)(right scale)

Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.403

$/lb$/gal

-$3.00

-$2.00

-$1.00

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11

Spread ($/gallon) = Ethanol Price - (Sugar Price * 14.8 lb/gal)Estimated Ethanol-Sugar Profit Margin Per Gallon

$/gal

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

14

nymex FaME argus Biodiesel FoB Rotterdam Swap Futures

Closes for: Friday August 19 FAME Argus Biodiesel FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest

2LQ11 1406.810 +1.715 1406.810 1406.810 0 175

2LU11 1371.000 +7.000 1371.000 1371.000 0 185

2LV11 1344.000 +9.000 1344.000 1344.000 0 325

2LX11 1325.000 +14.000 1325.000 1325.000 0 65

2LZ11 1323.000 +17.000 1323.000 1323.000 0 65

2LF12 1306.000 +15.000 1306.000 1306.000 0 50

2LG12 1305.000 +15.000 1305.000 1305.000 0 50

2LH12 1304.000 +15.000 1304.000 1304.000 0 50

2LJ12 1299.000 +15.000 1299.000 1299.000 0 10

2LK12 1299.000 +15.000 1299.000 1299.000 0 10

2LM12 1301.000 +16.000 1301.000 1301.000 0 10

Daily Volume and Open Interest 0 995

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

15

nymex RME Biodiesel (argus) FoB Rotterdam Swap Futures

Closes for: Friday August 19 RME Biodiesel (Argus) FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest

1AQ11 1470.524 +1.191 1470.524 1470.524 0 120

1AU11 1454.000 +3.000 1454.000 1454.000 0 100

1AV11 1444.000 +3.000 1444.000 1444.000 0 150

1AX11 1435.000 -1.000 1435.000 1435.000 0 120

1AZ11 1432.000 -3.000 1432.000 1432.000 0 120

1AF12 1425.000 +2.000 1425.000 1425.000 0 20

1AG12 1422.000 unch 1422.000 1422.000 0 20

1AH12 1419.000 unch 1419.000 1419.000 0 20

Daily Volume and Open Interest 0 670

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

16

nymex Rotterdam Biodiesel Swap Futures versus ICE Gasoil nearest-Futures

Spreads: nymex Rotterdam Biodiesel Swap Futures Minus ICE Gasoil

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

5/09 8/09 11/09 2/10 5/10 8/10 11/10 2/11 5/11 8/11 $/MT

RME Argus Biodiesel - Gasoil Spread

FAME Argus Biodiesel -Gasoil Spread

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

5/09 8/09 11/09 2/10 5/10 8/10 11/10 2/11 5/11 8/11

ICE Gasoil ($/MT)

RME Argus Biodiesel Rotterdam ($/MT)

Rolling 1-yr Correlations: RME vs Gasoil: 0.617FAME vs Gasoil: 0.602RME vs FAME: 0.832

$/MT

FAME Argus Biodiesel Rotterdam ($/MT)

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

17

u.S. Ethanol Industry Data

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Tho

usan

d ba

rrel

s/da

y

U.S. Monthly Ethanol Production

Source: EIA-DOE

May-2011: 895,000 bpdApr-2011: 886,000 bpdMar-2011: 909,000 bpd

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Billi

on G

allo

ns/Y

r.

U.S. Annual Ethanol Production

Source: EIA-DOE

2011 (ytd): 13.76 bln gal.2010: 13.23 bln gal.

RFS Mandates:2010: 12.95 bln gal 2011: 13.95 bln gal2012: 15.20 bln gal.

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

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Eth

anal

Pric

e -

$ P

er G

allo

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Impo

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-Milli

on G

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o

U.S. Ethanol Imports vs Ethanol Price

Ethanol Prices

Negligible since 1/2011

500

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Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

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Sep Oct

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Dec

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U.S. Ethanol Monthly Inventory Stocks

2010

May-2011: 856 mln gal.

2009

Source: EIA/DOE

60%

70%

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90%

Jan Mar May July Sep Nov

U.S. Ethanol Stocks/Production Ratio

May-2011: 73.5%2010

5-yr avg

Source: EIA/DOE

0

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15

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on G

allo

ns/Y

r

U.S. Ethanol Plant Capacity & Construction

Capacity Under Construction

Source: Renewable Fuels Association

Jul-11 Capacity: 14.745 bln galUnder Construction: 246 mln gal

CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011

18

CME Group Ethanol ContractsContract Exchange

SymbolClearing Symbol

BarchartSymbol

BloombergSymbol

ContractSize

Venue Delivery

CBOT Ethanol Futures (Chicago delivery)

ZE EH ZK DL 29,000 gal-lons

CME Globex

Physical delivery with seller paying negotiated freight delivery to buyer, or Chicago default delivery.

CBOT Ethanol Forward Month Swap FZE 71 FZ FZE 14,500

gallonsCME

ClearPort

Cash-settled to the average of the settlement prices for the Ethanol futures contract that follows the Ethanol calendar Swap contract for each business day in the Ethanol Calendar Swap contract month.

CBOT Ethanol Forward Month Swap Options

COS/POS 71 - -

1 Forward mth swap contract

CME ClearPort

Options are cash-settled on the last clearing day and cannot be exercised at any time

NYMEX Ethanol Physical Futures (NY) QE QE QB QEE 42,000

gallonsCME

Globex Physical delivery New York Harbor

NYMEX Chicago Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures

CU CU FL CUA 42,000 gallons

CME ClearPort

Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average of the high and low quotations from Platts for Chicago Ethanol (Terminal) for each business day during the contract month.

NYMEX New York Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures

EZ EZ FH TTA 42,000 gallons

CME ClearPort

Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average of the high and low quotations from Platts for New York Ethanol NYH (Barge) or each business day during the contract month.

NYMEX Ethanol (Platts) T1 FOB Rot-terdam Ex Duty Swap Futures

2M 2M D1 BME 100 cu meters

CME ClearPort

Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average of the mid-point of the high and low quotations from Platts European Marketscan for Ethanol under the “Ethanol fob Rotterdam ex duty” assessment for each business day that it is determined during the contract month.

NYMEX Ethanol (Platts) T2 FOB Rotterdam Including Duty Swap Futures

Z1 Z1 D2 ZAE 100 cu meters

CME ClearPort

Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average of the mid-point of the high and low quotations from Platts European Marketscan for Ethanol under the “Ethanol fob Rotterdam including duty” assessment for each business day that it is determined during the contract month.

Note: All CME ethanol contracts are quoted in terms of US Dollars per gallon and have contracts for each consecutive month.

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CME Group Ethanol Contacts

Erich ReulbachManager, Energy Products and ServicesErich.Reulbach@cmegroup.com - 212-299-2445

Alexandra SiffAssociate Director, Energy ProductsAlexandra.Siff@cmegroup.com - 212-299-2368

John HillEconomist, Research & Product DevelopmentJohn.Hill@cmegroup.com 312-930-1852

Lisa KallalManager, Commodity Products & Services EMEALisa.Kallal@cmegroup.com - 011-44-20-7796-7130

Daniel BrusstarDirector, Energy Research & Product DevelopmentDaniel.Brusstar@cmegroup.com - 212-299-2604