weekly credit update - danske bank march 2015 weekly credit update important disclosures and...

24 March 2015

Weekly Credit Update

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 24 of this report

Chief Analyst Thomas Hovard +45 25 42 42 09 [email protected]

Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI

2

- Market news

- Company news

- Trade ideas

Contents

- Chart pack

- List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations

- Best and worst performers

3

Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

What’s on our mind - General credit market news

• The last week has been rather bleak for the credit markets with the iTraxx Main widening around 7bp and the iTraxx Crossover by 14bps. While most fundamentals and technicals are in favour of credit, we believe the heavy issuance is taking its toll on the markets.

• In terms of issuance, net supply in 2015 YTD is already in line with all of 2014 (and much higher than the three previous years) driven by subordinated debt from financials and high yield. This is making it difficult for investors to digest the new issue pipeline.

• As we approach the next reporting season, which will see more modest supply, we expect credit to perform again. Our view is driven by the US economy being on track, the EU recovering and China not coming off the rails. Furthermore, ECB’s asset purchase programme will underpin the hunt for yield.

• Under its new bank rating methodology, Moody’s placed Danske, SEB, SHB, DNB and the three Norwegian savings banks Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, SMN and Nord-Norge under review for upgrade of their senior unsecured ratings. Swedbank, Nykredit (unsolicited), Sydbank, Jyske (unsolicited) and Pohjola stayed unchanged while Nordea was put on review for a potential two-notch downgrade. We haven’t received the rationale for the individual ratings. Overall, the changes were mainly due to a lowering of potential government support following BRRD and on the other hand the improved capitalisation and bail-inable liabilities at many banks following new regulation which creates a loss-absorbing cushion for senior unsecured debt.

4

News on mortgage lending standards - Moody’s has published comments on regulatory changes in Norway and Sweden

Norway (Finanstilsynet proposal of17 March):

• New loans would remain restricted to a maximum loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 85%, but personal guarantees (sureties) that are often provided by parents for first-time homebuyers would no longer be allowed as a justification to exceed the limit.

• Finanstilsynet has also proposed a minimum 2.5% annual amortisation from the first year for all mortgages until the LTV falls to 65%.

• The proposed rule would mean a tightening of policy because the current guidelines require amortisation only down to 70% LTV and do not specify a minimum annual amortisation.

• Banks should assume a 6pp increase of the interest rate when checking borrower affordability (up 1pp). Importantly, banks will no longer be allowed to bypass the stress test based on a special prudential assessment of the borrower’s circumstances.

• Finanstilsynet recommended that the Ministry of Finance establish the underwriting requirements in the form of regulation, contrary to the current requirements, which are only guidelines.

• The proposal is seen [by Moody’s] as credit positive as it would assist in maintaining stable asset quality and limit the growth of household indebtedness in a low interest rate environment.

Sweden (Finansinspektionen proposal of18 March):

• New mortgage loans, typically capped at a maximum LTV of 85%, would be amortised at 2% of the loan per year until the LTV falls to 70%, at which point the amortisation would be 1% per year until the LTV falls to 50%.

• The requirement has a countercyclical element because LTV variations owing to house price changes would only be factored in every five years at the earliest.

• The proposal will affect all new mortgage loans starting on 1 August 2015.

• The proposal is seen [by Moody’s] as credit positive for Swedish covered bonds because it would constrain household indebtedness and build up home equity.

5

Best and worst performers - Investment grade

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies

5,2

5,0

4,0

4,0

3,8

3,6

3,4

3,3

3,2

3,0

-3,3

-3,3

-3,7

-4,9

-5,0

-5,2

-6,3

-17,3

-19,8

-22,5

-25-20-15-10-50510

Statkraft AS EUR 2022

Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025

TeliaSonera AB EUR 2031

Sampo Oyj EUR 2021

Telenor ASA EUR 2024




Statoil ASA EUR 2025


SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2017

DNB Boligkreditt AS EUR 2016

Vattenfall AB EUR 2016

Investor AB EUR 2016

Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016

Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020

SBAB Bank AB EUR 2016

Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017

SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018

Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017

Change in local currencies (bp)

12,6

12,6

12,3

12,1

11,5

11,3

10,7

10,3

10,2

10,1

-6,0

-6,1

-6,1

-9,4

-10,4

-10,8

-16,2

-18,3

-25,9

-27,4

-30-20-1001020



AP Moeller - Maersk A/S EUR 2019


Statoil ASA EUR 2025


Statkraft AS EUR 2022




Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016

Nykredit Bank A/S EUR 2015

Investor AB EUR 2016


TDC A/S EUR 2022

Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020

TDC A/S EUR 2015

Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017

SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018



6

Best and worst performers - High yield

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies

198,5

179,1

177,0

134,6

61,1

48,3

47,1

45,5

42,2

26,5

-18,2

-19,4

-19,7

-20,0

-21,5

-22,1

-23,0

-23,4

-29,2

-42,0

-100-50050100150200250

Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD …

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019

Seadrill Ltd USD 2017


Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018

SAS AB SEK 2019

Stena International SA USD 2024

Stena AB USD 2024

SAS AB SEK 2017

Odfjell SE NOK 2017

Meda AB SEK 2016

Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2016

Stora Enso OYJ SEK 2017

Finnair OYJ EUR 2049

Hoist Kredit AB SEK 2016

Meda AB SEK 2018

Color Group AS NOK 2016

Prosafe SE NOK 2017

Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay …


313,6

305,1

291,4

272,2

232,6

220,4

207,6

197,1

76,8

68,5

-63,1

-65,8

-69,7

-77,1

-90,7

-91,4

-100,6

-105,7

-107,8

-156,0

-200-1000100200300400



Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD …

Odfjell SE NOK 2015

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019

SAS AB SEK 2019

Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018

J Lauritzen A/S NOK 2017

Odfjell SE NOK 2017

Nynas AB SEK 2018

Prosafe SE NOK 2018

Prosafe SE NOK 2017

Solstad Offshore ASA NOK 2019

Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay …

Prosafe SE NOK 2020

Hoist Kredit AB SEK 2016

Beerenberg Holdco II AS NOK 2018

Prosafe SE NOK 2019

Prosafe SE NOK 2016


7

Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 – priced attractively (published on 19 March 2015)

Source: Bloomberg, Moody’s, Danske Bank Markets

• Earlier this month Vestas issued a 7Y EUR500m senior unsecured bond – the Vestas 2.75% 2022.

• Bond documentation/structure (Vestas 2022) includes the following key terms: Cross default, negative pledge (save for carve-out of up to EUR150m as permitted secured debt and/or assets securing non-recourse debt), change of control put (>50% of control/shares).

• We are not aware of the terms present in the EUR1,000m bank RCF facilities, which are likely stricter than the bond terms.

• Given our view of Vestas as a ‘BBB-’ credit ,we regard the current pricing as attractive.

• In our view, a ‘fair’ credit spread for this type of

bond would be in the range of 130-150bp.

• Our ‘fair spread assessment’ is estimated as the 7Y EUR BBB- curve plus a 60-80bp discount due to the lack of an official credit rating and the inherently politically-driven volatility in the business model.

VWSDC '22 (NR/NR)

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Indicative ASW offer (bps)

EUR - credit curves

Global BB+

Corporates: BBB-

8

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Recent trade ideas

See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations

Type Trade Idea

Opened 19/03/2015

Start spread 245

Closed 10/03/2015

Start spread -2

Opened 27/02/2015

Start spread 470

Opened 10/02/2015

Start spread 109

Opened 02/02/2015

Start spread 661

Opened 26/01/2015

Start spread -8

Opened 23/01/2015

Start spread 81

Opened 18/12/2014

Start spread 807

Curve spread Swith from SECUSS '17 to

SECUSS '21

The Securitas 2021 bond trades wider than the BBB-

curve while the Securitas 2017 bond trades at the

BBB+ curve. We recommend buying the Securitas 2021

Outright SASSS '17 We believe the SAS 2017 offers attractive absolute

value – supported by adequate liquidity

Sector spread Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB

AT1

We have an ‘overweight’ rating on SEB and an

‘underweight’ rating on Nordea and don’t believe

a 14bp pick-up for a four year maturity extension is fair.

Outright Buy Tallink 2018 FRN Tallink 2018 in NOK trades cheap to a global

median ‘BB - ’ credit curve ( converted into NOK )

Outright CITCON '3.75 We believe that CITCON'3.75s trade at an attractive

level relative to the 'BBB' curve

Outright EGASDK '20 EGASDK '20s, which we see as 'B' indicatively trade way

too cheap relative to the industrial 'B' curve

Outright Buy Vestas 2022 Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 trades cheap to a EUR

corporate BBB curve.

Currency trade Close of trade SSAB Recent performance by the SSAB EUR bond has closed

the 19bp gap between the EUR and SEK

2019 bonds.

9

Name News Implication

Carlsberg

Carlsberg (Marketweight): Moodys (Baa2/Negative) kept its negative outlook on Carlsberg Breweries following release of its 2014 annual report. This reflects weak metrics for the current Baa2 rating combined with downside risk associated with a further devaluation of the RUB and the uncertainties associated with Carlsberg’s ability to contain profit deterioration. Moody’s sees Carlsberg’s adjusted debt to EBITDA at 3.4x end-2014 as above the boundary for the current rating (comfortably below 3.0x). We note that Carlsberg has guided for leverage to decline in 2015 and for reported net debt to EBITDA to be below 2.5x at end-2015 vs 2.7x at end-2014. Hence, this guided improvement in leverage is not certain to be enough to prevent a downgrade from Moody’s. However, if Carlsberg gets close to Moody’s threshold at end-2015, despite very difficult market conditions in Russia we do not expect a downgrade. We keep our Marketweight rating on Carlsberg and we do not expect Moody's confirming its negative outlook to have any market impact (Fitch BBB/S). The Carlsberg 19 bond trades at the BBB- corporate curve while the 22 and 24 trade wider. Hence, a one-notch downgrade is already discounted, in our view. However, investors are naturally worried about a potential nationalisation of the Russian assets (Eastern Europe is 40% of group invested capital - Russia is around 85% of this) which is likely to take Carlsberg into high-yield territory (virtually no debt in RUB). We expect Eastern Europe to account for less than 20% of group operating profit in 2015. However, we see it as comforting that Carlsberg is guiding for no M&A in the short term, lower capex and lower net debt to EBITDA in 2015 despite difficult conditions. This illustrates its concern for its credit metrics. We keep our Marketweight rating.

Credit Neutral

Fortum

Following Fortum’s (UW) announcement that it has agreed to divest its Swedish distribution grid for EUR6.6bn, S&P put Fortum’s ‘A-’ rating on watch negative (from negative outlook). The watch negative reflects the fact that Fortum’s business risk profile will be somewhat weakened, as Fortum is parting with the stable part of its earnings base (regulated distribution). Fortum announced that it will revise its net debt to EBITDA target to 2.5x from 3x to offset the weakened business risk profile, but S&P argued that this might not be enough to defend the rating. S&P will use the next three months to evaluate the prospects for Fortum’s business and financial risk profiles before deciding whether to downgrade or not. What remains to be seen is how Fortum will relever from here, being net cash when the proceeds from the divestments filter through to the balance sheet. Will it be extraordinary dividends and/or extra capex and if so, extra capex directed at what?. S&P’s action was more aggressive than we expected and should have negative implications for Fortum spreads.

Credit Negative


Company news from the past week

10


Company news from the past week

Volvo

Volvo (MW): Monthly delivery figures for February. Deliveries were up 32% y/y in North America and 13% in Europe y/y. According to Volvo, the higher deliveries in the US and Europe were a result of the better economic environment. In South America, deliveries declined by 73% mainly as a result of a weak economy and much stricter terms for financing (Brazil has cut subsidies for truck financing). The overall effect was a decline of 1% y/y, which was slightly better than consensus expectations. In terms of implications for the credit, the news is neutral overall as Volvo's key issue is still getting its overall level of profitability closer to its peers. We have a Marketweight rating on Volvo.

Credit Neutral

Danish banks

The Danish central bank raised the current account limit from DKK37bn to DKK145bn last Wednesday to ease the pressure on the banks from the negative interest rates. It then raised the limit further yesterday to DKK173bn in order to offer a larger amount for the smaller Danish banks. Combined, these actions will mean an increase of around DKK1bn in NII for the Danish banks on an annualised basis (0.75% on DKK136bn of deposits at the central bank). Not a major impact, but still positive. Danske Bank has access to c.28% of the current account limit, Nordea c21%, Jyske Bank c.6% and finally Sydbank, Spar Nord, SHB and Nykredit c.5% each. 84 banks in total have access to the current account at the Danish central bank.

Credit Positive

11

Note: Issues from Repsol, VWS and Swiss Re are hybrids.


Selected new issues

Selected new issues

Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM

20/03/2015 Kering 0.875% EUR 500 m Mar/22 / / 60 18/03/2015 Repsol Intl Finance 3.875% EUR 1 000 m PNC6 / (P)Ba1 / BB+e 381 17/03/2015 Volkswagen Intl Fin Nv 2.5% EUR 1 100 m PNC7 / Baa1 / 220 16/03/2015 Statkraft As 1.5% EUR 500 m Mar/30 A- / Baa1 / 75 20/03/2015 Swiss Re 1.65% EUR 1.75bn PNC10 / / 205 17/03/2015 Jyske Bank FRN EUR 500m Mar/18 A-/ / 35

12

Chart pack: euro spreads and returns Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices

IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100

HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100

13

Chart pack: relative value iTraxx vs iBoxx

Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)

EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks

Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)

14

Chart pack: general market development European swap and government yields

Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro swap curve spread

3M TED-spread, US and euro area

EUR/USD basis swaps

15

Chart pack: fund flows Europe, net sales


Sweden, net sales

US, net sales

Norway, net sales

16

Chart pack: macro GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted


Euro area y/y change in bank lending

Purchasing Manager Indices

Euro area lending standards

17

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads RosendalAkelius Residential Property Ab BBB- Stable BBB- Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B Stable Øyvind MossigeBillerudkorsnas Ab BBB- Stable Mads RosendalBw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind MossigeCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads RosendalCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Emil HjalmarssonColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas RipaCom Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola HeldalDanfoss A/S BBB Stable Jakob MagnussenDanske Bank A/S A Neg A3 Stable A StableDfds A/S BBB- Stable Niklas RipaDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola HeldalDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmEika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmElectrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTElenia Oy Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHTElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal OVERWEIGHT

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5

18


Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads RosendalAkelius Residential Property Ab BBB- Stable BBB- Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B Stable Øyvind MossigeBillerudkorsnas Ab BBB- Stable Mads RosendalBw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind MossigeCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads RosendalCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Emil HjalmarssonColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas RipaCom Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola HeldalDanfoss A/S BBB Stable Jakob MagnussenDanske Bank A/S A Neg A3 Stable A StableDfds A/S BBB- Stable Niklas RipaDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola HeldalDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmEika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmElectrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTElenia Oy Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHTElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal OVERWEIGHT




19


Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookEntra Eiendom As A- Stable Ola HeldalFarstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BB- Øyvind MossigeFingrid Oyj A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTFinnair Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingFortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHTFortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenFred Olsen Energy Asa BB Stable BB- Sondre StormyrG4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTGetinge Ab BB+ Neg Louis LandemanGolden Close Maritime Corp Ltd B- Sondre StormyrHeimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- Louis LandemanHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB Emil HjalmarssonHkscan Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingHoist Kredit Ab BB- Stable B+ Gabriel BerginHusqvarna Ab BBB- Pos Emil HjalmarssonIkano Bank Ab BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmInvestor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTIss A/S BBB- Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Bjørn Kristian RøedJernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTKesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads RosendalKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedLoomis Ab BBB- Stable Brian BørstingLuossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanMeda Ab BB- Stable Louis LandemanMetsa Board Oyj BB Stable B1 Pos Mads RosendalMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTNcc Ab BBB- Stable Emil HjalmarssonNeste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTNokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTNokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen



20


Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookNorth Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB- Neg B+ Sondre StormyrNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa BB- Stable B+ Brian BørstingNorwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Ola HeldalNykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTNynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob MagnussenOcean Yield Asa BB BB- Øyvind MossigeOdfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian RøedOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalOlympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Øyvind MossigeOrkla Asa BBB+ Pos Ola HeldalOutokumpu Oyj B Pos Mads RosendalPohjola Bank Oyj AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTPosten Norge As A- Stable Ola HeldalPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel BerginProsafe Se BB Stable Sondre StormyrRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian BørstingSampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSandvik Ab BBB Neg Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTSas Ab B- Stable Wr Stable Brian BørstingSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTScania Ab A- Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTSchibsted Asa BBB Stable Ola HeldalSeadrill Ltd BB Neg BB- Sondre StormyrSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable Emil HjalmarssonSkf Ab BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTSognekraft As BBB Stable BBB Jakob MagnussenSolstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Øyvind MossigeSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable Aaa T. Hovard / L. Holm



21


Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSparebank 1 Smn A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSponda Oyj BBB- Stable Emil HjalmarssonSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob MagnussenStatkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHTStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTStatoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHTSteen & Strom As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalStena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Niklas Ripa OVERWEIGHTStockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable Mads RosendalStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian RøedStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Stable WD Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Baa2 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmSunnfjord Energi As BBB- Stable BBB- Jakob MagnussenSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal OVERWEIGHTSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTSwedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginSwedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKETWEIGHTSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTSydbank A/S Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Emil HjalmarssonTallink Group As BB Stable BB- Niklas RipaTdc A/S BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Neg Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedTele2 Ab BBB Stable Ola HeldalTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTTelenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTTeliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Neg A- Stable Ola Heldal UNDERWEIGHTTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT



22


Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookThon Holding As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalTine Sa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTVasakronan Ab A- Stable Emil HjalmarssonVattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Niklas Ripa OVERWEIGHTVictoria Park Ab BB- Stable B+ Louis LandemanVolvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian RøedYit Oyj B Neg Emil Hjalmarsson



Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

23

Fixed Income Credit Research team Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst Head of Credit Research +45 45 12 85 05 [email protected]

Louis Landeman, Analyst TMT, Industrials +46 8 568 80524 [email protected]

Mads Rosendal, Analyst Industrials, Pulp & Paper +46 8 568 80594 [email protected]

Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst Utilities, Energy +45 45 12 85 03 [email protected]

Knut-Ivar Bakken, Analyst Fish Farming +47 85 40 70 74 [email protected]

Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst Industrials +45 45 12 85 19 [email protected]

Lars Holm, Senior Analyst Financials +45 45 12 80 41 [email protected]

Gabriel Bergin, Analyst Strategy, Industrials +46 8 568 80602 [email protected]

Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst High Yield, Industrials +45 45 12 80 47 [email protected]

Bjørn Kristian Røed, Analyst Shipping +47 85 40 70 72 [email protected]

Ola Heldal, Analyst TMT +47 85 40 84 33 [email protected]

Sondre Dale Stormyr, Analyst Offshore Rigs +47 85 40 70 70 [email protected]

Henrik René Andresen, Analyst Credit Portfolios +45 45 13 33 27 [email protected]

Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst Oil Services +47 85 40 54 91 [email protected]

Emil Hjalmarsson, Analyst Real Estate, Construction +46 8 568 80634 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]















24

Disclosures

This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst.

Analyst certification

Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report.

Regulation

Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request.

The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts’ rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.

Conflicts of interest

Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank’s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank’s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank’s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank.

Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.

Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment management, investment banking, custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to the companies mentioned in this publication and have whatever rights are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and credit agreements. At any time, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries may have credit or other information regarding the companies mentioned in this publication that is not available to or may not be used by the personnel responsible for the preparation of this report, which might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report.

See http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer for further disclosures and information.

http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer



25

General disclaimer

This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) (‘Relevant Financial Instruments’).

The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report.

The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report.

This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States.

This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank’s prior written consent.

26

Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States

This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to ‘U.S. institutional investors’ as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to ‘U.S. institutional investors’.

Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-U.S. jurisdiction.

Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non-U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

weekly credit update - danske bank march 2015 weekly credit update important disclosures and...

Documents