Weekly Cat Report May 1, 2020

Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event Impacted Areas Fatalities Damaged Structures and/or Filed Claims

PreliminaryEconomic Loss (USD)*

Page

Severe Weather United States 0 10s of Thousands 100s of Millions 3

Drought Southeast Asia 0 N/A 100s of Millions+ 8

Flooding Eastern Africa 19+ Thousands Millions 12

Flooding Vietnam 3+ 6,000+ Unknown 13

Flooding Indonesia 3+ 2,500+ Unknown 13

*Please note that these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. In some instances, initial estimates may be significantly adjusted as losses develop over time. This data is provided as an initial view of the potential financial impact from a recently completed or ongoing event based on early available assessments.

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 3

Two more bouts of severe weather sweep the U.S. The last week of April continued an already active month for severe thunderstorm activity in the U.S. Two separate events: April 24-26 and April 27-29, resulted in damage across parts of the Mid-West, Southern Plains and Southeast. The first event brought several tornado touchdowns, large hail, and straight-line winds to sections of the Southern Plains, and extending eastward into the Tennessee Valley and western Carolinas. The second event prompted additional damaging hail and straight-line winds, mainly resulting from a severe mesoscale convective complex that tracked across a broad region in the middle of the country, with sections of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana feeling the greatest impact. Total aggregate economic and insured losses from the two events were each expected to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD).

April 24-26

Meteorological Recap

April 24

On April 24 an upper level trough traversed through the southern high plains, in association with a developing surface low pressure system progressing eastward across northern Texas and Oklahoma (see the graphic below). Given the setup, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) declared an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather centered around the Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas borders, or ArkLaTex region, with a broader surrounding expanse of Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5).

Severe storms activity was primality focused around, and ahead of a surface dry line (boundary that separates a moist air mass from a dry air mass), and trailing cold front. Throughout the day, low level moisture transport aided in raising dewpoints into the 60s (°F) for the region of concern. Deep layer wind shear, and steep mid-layer lapse rates (change in temperature with height) were conducive for large hail, and the development of supercells, with the potential to produce isolated tornadoes.

Weekly Cat Report 4

In the evening, several discrete supercell storms developed in southeastern Oklahoma and northern Texas, near the Red River, and progressed east-southeast producing reported tornadoes and large hail. Additional severe storms developed to the south, ahead and along the frontal boundary. Further north, a linear convective structure, with embedded severe potential, amplified ahead of the cold front, resulting in multiple reports of large hail and locally damaging winds spanning eastern Oklahoma and central Arkansas.

April 25

On April 25 the system continued north and east, with the low-level cyclone located over southern portions of Missouri. The focus for severe weather transferred east into the Tennessee Valley. The SPC issued a Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2 out of 5) across southeastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and extending into the far western Carolinas. Modest mid-day clearing and surface heating, along with cooling temperature in the mid-levels, steepened the lapse rates over these regions, enhancing the potential for severe weather.

Event Details

On April 24, 108 reports of severe weather occurred, 69 of which were for hail, with 8 reports of significant hail (greater than or equal to 2.00 inches, 50 millimeters). In Bryan County (Oklahoma) hail approaching 2.50 inches (64 mm, tennis ball size) were reported, which led to damaged windows at the Rock Creek School. Overnight, hail approaching 4.00 inches (102 millimeters; softball size) were reported with a severe storm in Bossier Parish (Louisiana).

On April 25, 50 reports of severe weather were recorded, of which 3 were for tornadoes. A severe storm producing an EF1 tornado in Wilson County (Tennessee) led to three storm related injuries. An EF2 tornado, with maximum winds approaching 115 mph (185 kph) was surveyed north of Greenville, South Carolina, impacting multiple structures and vehicles, including roofing damage to a restaurant.

April 27-29

Weekly Cat Report 5

Meteorological Recap

April 27

In the evening on April 27, a modest upper level trough and frontal boundary initiated severe discrete storms and linear convective structures adjacent to, and south of the Red River Valley in central Texas. These storms tracked east-southeastward overnight, and throughout the day on April 28 toward the Louisiana Gulf Coast. The predominant peril with this preliminary system was large hail. Most impactful were reports of hail up to 2.00 inches (50 millimeters) in the vicinity of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.

April 28 & April 29

On April 28, a stronger developing trough over the northern Plains progressed southeastward and amplified substantially throughout the afternoon and evening hours. This led to a broad severe weather threat encompassing a large portion of the mid-west and southern plains. The environment was conducive for the formation of an expansive severe squall line which tracked southeast along with, and ahead of the approaching cold front. Damaging winds and large hail were the greatest hazards of concern.

This arrangement prompted the SPC to issue a Moderate Risk for severe weather (level 4 out of 5) for regions in eastern Oklahoma, extreme western Arkansas, and northeast Texas, surrounded by a larger zone of Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5). A slight risk for severe weather (level 2 out of 5) extended northward into eastern Iowa, southwest Wisconsin, and western Illinois; and southward to the Gulf Coast near the Texas/Louisiana borders.

Substantial surface heating ahead of the approaching cold front, in the warm sector, along with advection of moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates created an environment favorable for development of severe storms. A large mesoscale convective complex (MCC), with a mix of multicellular clusters and embedded bowing segments rapidly developed across the mid-west and southern plains. By the early evening hours, the complex extended from Chicago to Oklahoma City and was strengthening as it advanced southeast. At this time, stronger instability was building near a surface trough and secondary surface low to the south-southeast, centered around eastern Oklahoma. In this region, large CAPE or convective available potential energy (which is related to the maximum updraft strength in a storm), coupled with southerly surface winds and a dominant northwest flow aloft created the increased risk for stronger and rotating severe storms.

Weekly Cat Report 6

On April 29, although weakening in a less favorable environment, the line continued its trajectory and was moving off the Gulf Coast in the morning hours.

Extensive hail and wind damage were reported across multiple states in relation to this event. Large hail was common across Oklahoma early in the event, while severe wind reports became more prevalent eastward in Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and northeast Texas.

Event Details

With the initial wave of activity on April 27, at least 15 accounts of severe hail were reported, of which 2 were for significant hail (greater than or equal to 2.00 inches). Most impactful were severe hail up to 2.00 inches (50 millimeters) in the vicinity of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, mainly in Tarrant County. Hail up to 2.00 inches (50 millimeters) were also observed in Nolan County (Texas).

The severe mesoscale complex on April 28 was responsible for extensive hail and wind damage. In Oklahoma, widespread accounts of large and damaging hail were common, with some of the largest occurring in Canadian, Grady, and Stephens Counties. A report of hail approaching grapefruit size, 3.75 inches (95 millimeters) occurred in Grady County. As of this writing, there were 454 accounts of severe weather on April 28, of which 303 were for wind, and 146 for severe hail, with a clear majority occurring in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas.

As the convective system progressed, severe and straight-line winds became the main peril of concern into Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and northeast Texas. Reports of maximum

gusts approaching and exceeding 75 mph (120 kph) were recorded. This resulted in multiple instances of wind related damage and downed trees, causing impacts to cars, homes, and power lines.

Financial Loss Total aggregate economic and insured losses from the two events – April 24-26 and April 27-29 – were each expected to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD). This continues a very active stretch for U.S. severe weather which has resulted in extensive damage across the Plains, Southeast, Midwest, and the Mid-Atlantic. It was anticipated that both economic and insured losses from the peril will total into the billions of dollars (USD). Multiple April U.S. events were expected to minimally cross the USD1 billion economic loss threshold.

Weekly Cat Report 7

Miscellaneous

The month of April was particularly active in terms of tornado touchdowns. Unofficially, there were at least 243 confirmed touchdowns; most of which occurred across the Southeast. The preliminary tally places 2020 as the fourth-most active April for tornadoes in the Doppler radar era (since 1990). Despite being elevated in raw numbers, April 2020 was still far below the historic year in 2011. Additionally, at least 40 confirmed tornado fatalities were recorded last month. This marked the deadliest April since 2011.

Beyond tornado events, there was considerable damage incurred from episodes of very large hail and straight-line winds that were very impactful from the Plains to Northeast. Thousands of wind and hail reports occurred that led to extensive and expensive impacts in more than two-dozen states.

Weekly Cat Report 8

Widespread drought impact felt across Southeast Asia The start of 2020 has resulted in a severe lack of rainfall across parts of Southeast Asia, leading to subsequent severe drought conditions in multiple countries. Among the hardest-hit areas include Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. Some of the biggest impacts are expected to be the agricultural sector and associated business; where total economic costs were likely to aggregate beyond USD1 billion in the ASEAN region alone.

Overview The drought peril can have catastrophic effects on the agribusiness as well as the total agricultural yield of an affected region. Such events can consequently lead to costly monetary impacts, disruption of the food supply chain and the broader overall biological system. Prolonged or intense drought conditions can be driven by normal atmospheric variability, and enhanced via climate change effects, further accentuated by an anthropogenic influence (such as poor farming techniques).

Gross domestic product relies heavily upon agricultural production in the southeast Asian countries. Even a moderate agriculture failure can have genuine ramifications on the socioeconomics of the region. The current and ongoing drought situation across Southeast Asia has been intensifying in recent months, ahead of the seasonal monsoon season. There are concerns, however, that any delay or shift in anticipated monsoon rains could further exacerbate already incurred effects. The worst-affected countries include Vietnam, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. An immediate result of the drought has already led to crises around drinking water shortages and saltwater intrusion into surface water; further limiting the drinking water supply.

Meteorological Recap & ENSO Influence The Mekong River countries produce about 65 million metric tons of rice, that accounts for nearly 13 percent of global output according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The same river also accounts for 25 percent of the global freshwater and helps nearly 65 million people earn their livelihoods. Therefore, an anomaly in the rainfall over southeast Asia will impact a notable proportion of the world’s total population. India alone lost a total of USD5.0 billion due to the yearlong drought during 2015-2016.

For historical context, continental Southeast Asia experienced its warmest monthly mean surface air temperatures in April 2016. The year 2016 had also been anomalous in terms of rainfall in the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam, which experienced its worst-ever drought in almost a century, and it caused disruption to the total agricultural yield and overall economy. It is worth noting that these events occurred in tandem with the strongest El Niño (2015-16) of the 21st Century. Several scientific studies have suggested that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest source of the Earth’s climatic variability. ENSO affects the global weather/climate patterns after its onset. Impact of ENSO on the rainfall occurring over continental southeast Asia is standout amidst several local and remote phenomena, as ENSO explains the most significant proportion of the total year-to-year variability of rainfall over this region.

It becomes even clearer looking at the composite rainfall anomaly map for the aggregate of El Niño seasons. The drought-like conditions over southeast Asia are evident.

Rainfall anomaly (March–May, units mm/day) in El Niño seasons. (Source: ASMC)

Weekly Cat Report 9

The notable impacts of ENSO on the southeast Asian climate have been studied extensively and most conclusions show a distinct signature across much of southeast Asia. In terms of rainfall, the El Niño events typically lead to severe droughts in several countries of the region. It is also noted that rainfall anomalies across most regional tropical monsoon regimes are severely affected by El Niño (or La Nina) events.

The year 2019 began with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (0.8oC during January–March) in the Niño3.4 region, depicting an ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean region. The anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific then began to show a period of transition throughout the rest of 2019, and into the first quarter of 2020. As can be seen from the Figure in the left, SST anomalies transitioned to an ENSO-neutral period. This is seen around the longitudes of the dateline, yet they have remained above the El Niño threshold (0.5oC) most of the time, delineating that there has been a persistent ENSO-neutral and/or El Niño-like conditions in the Pacific Ocean throughout.

Another important observation is that these SST anomalies are prominent in the central Pacific, like that of the 2015-2016 El Niño. These El Niño are different than the conventional El Niño, where the SST anomalies are seen to be the strongest hugging the coast of South America.

During a conventional El Niño, the SST anomalies are widespread over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean basin. However, the occurrence of ENSO events in which the strongest SST anomalies are seen in the central Pacific longitudes is relatively recent. Various names have been suggested to this newly discovered phenomenon – El Niño Modoki, dateline El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and warm pool El Niño. This pattern of SST warming is known to be an effect of global warming on the ENSO pattern and occurrences of such El Niño have been very frequent in the past. Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam and Sri Lanka have faced one of the worst droughts during late 2015 to early 2016.

Using 2015-16 as an example, it is expected that the impact of the central Pacific El Nino is more damaging than that of the conventional one. Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, Thailand, and Sri Lanka have been each been affected by a severe drought during 2019-2020. It could be concluded that climate change is having an enhancing effect on the various ENSO phases, which in turn are particularly impactful across southeast Asia. The SST anomaly over the Niño3.4 region for the January-March 2020 season is observed to be 0.5oC (still an El Niño) and is expected to decline in the future as most of the predictions (both statistical and using dynamical models) for ENSO suggest a neutral ENSO condition in the summer of 2020.

If these predictions are proven correct and the neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the coming summer, this may allow the summer monsoon to arrive on time. Such conditions could subsequently ease the current drought conditions. If not, the drought will only intensify.

Source: NOAA

Weekly Cat Report 10

Event Details

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka used to receive frequent heavy rains year-round. There has been an unprecedented half a year-long dry spell starting from the last quarter of 2019 and continuing thus far. A report by the Disaster Management Centre on April 22 highlighted that more than 510,075 people across 52 percent of Sri Lankan districts (13 out of 25) faced a water crisis due to the dry spell and seawater intrusion into surface water. Kalutara, Kegalle, and Ratnapura districts were the most affected. According to the Sri Lankan Department of Meteorology forecasts, these dry spells may continue until the onset of the south-west monsoon in May. In the year 2015-16, due to the prevailing El Nino condition, Sri Lanka was hit by a severe drought. According to the Disaster Management Center (DMC), only 37 percent of the available land was cultivated because of a lack of irrigation water.

Vietnam

A total of 13 provinces (Long An, Dong Thap, Tien Giang, An Giang, Ben Tre, Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Hau Giang, Kien Giang, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, and Ca Mau, along with the province-level municipality of Can Tho) in the Mekong Delta region in southwestern Vietnam have already been influenced by the prolonged dry spell conditions. Kien Giang, Ben Tre, and Tien and two other provinces already declared a state of emergency. The progressing dry season has resulted in water shortages and further worsened agricultural conditions. The shortage of water together with saltwater intrusion has already influenced 95,000 families and 38,800 hectares (95,876 acres) of agribusiness land in 13 southern Vietnamese provinces. Total direct economic losses were likely to reach well into the millions (USD).

Several international organizations – such as the United Nations, Red Cross, and other International Non-Government Agencies (INGOs) – are coordinating with the Vietnamese government. In the first quarter of the year 2016, the GDP growth rate of Vietnam slipped by ~6 percent in the wake of ongoing drought. Water level in the Mekong Delta region was recorded to be at the lowest level since the year 1926. By mid-July, the 2016 drought affected 2 million people in 16 provinces, and damages/affected crops over a total land area of 535,930 ha. The total economic loss of that 2016 event topped USD700 million.

Rainfall anomaly for the January–March 2020. Shading (contours) show the departure of rainfall (in %) from a base climatological period of 1979–2019 (Source: IRI)

Weekly Cat Report 11

Thailand

Major drought impacts are already quite significant in Thailand, as many parts of the country’s Chao Phraya delta region has endured one of its driest starts of the year in 40 years. The dry season has been very severe and major reservoirs in the country have exhausted 50 percent of their capacity. Water levels in the major rivers has gone down so low that the saltwater from the ocean is creeping upstream, affecting drinking water supplies. These dry conditions are expected to be more severe than last year, and in a country where 11 million people work in farming and crop production, the economy is expected to suffer. Following the dry spell and severe saltwater intrusion crisis, the Government of Thailand declared a state emergency. For crisis management, Government started distributing drinking water through water trucks in nearly 80 regions through the North, Northeastern, Upper Central, and Western areas.

Earnest help tasks are in progress to get water to drought-affected zones, in addition to peripheral areas. Such conditions were likely to lead to a reduction in seasonal harvests, including sugar and rice. In 2020, the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) had already spent more than THB15 million (USD480,000) providing water to the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) by building water stockpiling frameworks and working to aid more than 32,000 hectares (79,070 acres) of land. One forecast, by the Bank of Ayudhya's Krungsri Research, projected that the 2020 dry season could cost the nation as much as THB46 billion (USD1.5 billion); or 0.27 percent of the total GDP.

For context, by the same timeframe in 2016, that drought had impacted roughly 30 percent of the districts of Thailand. The total economic loss in Thailand during the 2015-16 drought was estimated at more than USD1 billion.

Weekly Cat Report 12

Seasonal flooding in progress in Eastern Africa The last two weeks of April brought further seasonal rain to parts of eastern and Central Africa, regionally causing riverine and flash flooding. Notable rainfall was observed in Ethiopia and Somalia, which increased flood risk in Shabelle and Juba River basins. Further losses were also reported from Tanzania and Kenya.

Event Details

A significant increase in seasonal rains occurred across parts of Somalia towards the end of the month, with stations in southwestern regions recording around 50 to 100 millimeters (2 to 3.9 inches) of precipitation and water levels responding to rainfall in upper parts of the river basins in the Ethiopian Highlands.

The rains helped to replenish water resources; however, in some cases led to dangerous flooding in Juba and Shabelle River basins. Notable floods were reported from the Doolow area at the confluence of Juba and Dawa rivers at the borders with Ethiopia, further instances of damage were noted further downstream around Luuq and Bardere. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also noted impact on refugee camps in the country, which host a large number of internally displaced. The full extent of this impact is not yet known. Heavy rain on April 27 caused notable flooding in Qardho in the Bari region and left 13 people dead or missing and 20 injured. Additional flooding was expected in the coming days.

Urban flash flooding occurred in Dire Dawa in Ethiopia on April 24, killing four people and injuring others. Several structures collapsed, although an official damage assessment was yet to be released. Additional flooding was noted along the Neri River in southern Ethiopia. Heavy rains since April 24 affected parts of northeastern Tanzania. Floods and mudslides were noted in Arusha and Kilimanjaro Regions. Preliminary local reports noted two fatalities, dozens of homes destroyed and at least 2,700 people displaced. Flooding continued in Kenya (as reported in the Weekly Report 04/24); the government reported a seasonal total of 116 fatalities, however, it is not clear what timeframe is included. For reference, the country also experienced notable flooding from October to December 2019.

Weekly Cat Report 13

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Flooding (Indonesia) Episodes of heavy rains triggered regional flash flooding in several parts of Indonesia during April 20-28. The National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB) noted three fatalities and three missing in Damang Batu District in Central Kalimantan. Flooding was also reported from the Cimahi Tengah District in West Java. Other affected regions included Serang Regency in Banten Province on April 22 with nearly 150 homes damaged; Rejang Lebong Regency in Bengkulu Province with several hundred structures inundated; and North Penajam Regency in East Kalimantan Province on April 26. At least 2,000 homes were also flooded on April 28 in Aceh Province. Cumulative economic toll of these events has not yet been determined, as official assessments continued; however, it was not expected to be significant.

Ice Jam/Flooding (Canada) An ice jam, resulting from a period of warming spring temperatures, caused significant flooding along the Athabasca and Clearwater Rivers near Fort McMurray in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB) in Alberta, Canada. Ice Jam Warnings from the Alberta Ministry of Environment and Parks indicated that ice cover on the Athabasca River began to break early in the morning on April 26. This developed into a substantial ice jam downstream of Fort McMurray, with backups extending into the Clearwater River. Water levels on the Athabasca and Clearwater Rivers rose between 4.5 and 6.0 meters (approximately 15 to 20 feet) at Fort McMurray. By April 28, more than 12,936 people were evacuated from their homes, including a mandatory evacuation for downtown Fort McMurray. At least 220 rescue operations were performed. Initial assessment estimates that at least 1,230 structures were impacted. Total economic losses are expected to reach into the millions (USD).

Flooding (Vietnam) Heavy rains and thunderstorms, coupled with heavy winds and lightening have affected the northern and central provinces (Ha Giang, Son La, Yen Bai, Lao Cai, and Quang Binh) of Vietnam from April 22-27. These events have led to considerable flash flooding, resulting in property damage, and causing casualties. According to local media reports, at least 3 people were killed in flood and storm-related instances while more than 13 were injured. More than 6,000 houses suffered severe damage in the affected provinces, including no fewer than 1,250 houses in Ha Giang Province alone. Additional damage was cited in Lao Cai, Yen Bai, and Son La provinces. Total economic losses were estimated into the millions (USD).

Weekly Cat Report 14

Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 15

Global Precipitation Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 16

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS operational daily global 5 kilometer Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C)

Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 27.7 +1.1

Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 27.1 +0.2

Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.3 +0.7

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NEIS, National Data Buoy Center

Weekly Cat Report 17

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present. NOAA notes that there is a roughly 60 percent chance of neutral conditions lingering through the Northern Hemisphere (boreal) summer months. The agency further states it is more than likely that such conditions will last through the boreal autumn.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AMJ2020

MJJ2020

JJA2020

JAS2020

ASO2020

SON2020

OND2020

NDJ2020

DJF2020

Pro

bab

ility

(%

)

Time period

Mid April IRI/CPC Model-BasedProbabilistic ENSO Forecast

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

Climatological

Source: NOAA

Weekly Cat Report 18

Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Weekly Cat Report 19

Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Storm Reference from Land Motion**

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Weekly Cat Report 20

Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): Apr 24 – 30

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information Date (UTC) Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter

04/25/2020 6.51S, 154.30E 6.3 17 km 13 kilometers (8 miles) W of Panguna, Papua New Guinea

Source: United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 21

U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats Dominant ridging and high pressure will allow for much above normal temperatures across a large

region of the Southwestern United States. This includes the Four Corner States, and Southern Plains where record high temperatures are possible. By mid-week, above average temperatures are anticipated for California and the Great Basin.

There is an increasing potential for heavy rainfall late this weekend, associated with a passing frontal disturbance, for localities in the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Also, early next week, an upper level trough has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. By midweek, heavy rainfall is possible downstream of this disturbance for portions of the lower Ohio Valley and extending toward the Central Appalachians.

Drought conditions persist across regions of the Southern Plains and Pacific Northwest.

Flooding is imminent across portions of the Southern Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains due to recent elevated precipitation and already saturated soils. Recent rainfall has increased the potential for flooding across portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes.

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Weekly Cat Report 22

U.S. Wildfire: Significant Fire Risk Outlook & Activity The National Interagency Fire Center has highlighted an extended risk of elevated wildfire conditions across parts of the Desert Southwest, Plains, and the Southeast into the first week of May. One area of focus will be in the Desert Southwest and the southern Plains as dry and windy conditions establish. This will enhance the fire risk.

Annual YTD Wildfire Comparison: April 30* Year Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

2016 15,796 1,465,907 92.80

2017 18,511 1,937,105 104.65

2018 17,692 976,686 55.20

2019 10,391 206,407 19.86

2020 11,884 220,823 18.58

10-Year Average (2010-2019) 16,918 842,324 49.79

*Last available update from NIFC Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Top 5 Most Acres Burned by State: April 30 State Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

Oklahoma 503 70,919 140.99

Florida 1,123 23,786 21.18

Kansas 34 21,880 643.53

Texas 807 21,602 26.77

Mississippi 332 16,412 49.43

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Weekly Cat Report 23

Current U.S. Streamflow Status

A ≥99th percentile indicates that estimated streamflow is greater than the 99th percentile for all days of the year. This methodology also applies for the other two categories. A steam in a state of severe drought has 7-day average streamflow of less than or equal to the 5th percentile for this day of the year. Moderate drought indicates that estimated 7-day streamflow is between the 6th and 9th percentile for this day of the year and ‘below normal’ state is between 10th and 24th percentile.

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Flood Stage (ft) Current Stage (ft) % of Full Capacity

Shavers Fork Creek at Bemis, West Virginia 5.00 7.72 154%

Altamaha River near Charlotteville, Georgia 13.00 19.00 146%

Altamaha River near Baxley, Georgia 12.99 18.59 143%

James River at Columbia, South Dakota 13.00 17.73 136%

James River at Ashton, South Dakota 13.00 17.34 133%

Source: United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 24

Source Information Two more bouts of severe weather sweep the U.S. U.S. Storm Prediction Center U.S. National Weather Service U.S. Weather Prediction Center

Seasonal flooding in progress in Eastern Africa Flooding in Kenya: Government confirms 116 total deaths, Tuko Food and Agriculture Organization United Nations Copernicus

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief The National Board for Disaster Management, Indonesia Alberta Ministry of Environment and Parks, Canada Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Canada

Weekly Cat Report 25

Contact Information Steve Bowen Director & Meteorologist Head of Catastrophe Insight Impact Forecasting Aon steven.bowen@aon.com Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon michal.lorinc@aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 26

About Aon

Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions. Our 50,000 colleagues in 120 countries empower results for clients by using proprietary data and analytics to deliver insights that reduce volatility and improve performance.

© Aon plc 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained herein and the statements expressed are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

Copyright © by Impact Forecasting®

No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com.

Copyright © by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting® is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc.