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WEEKENDER REPORT Macro / political commentary The U.S. economy expanded higher than previously reported last quarter on major contributions

from a range of factors including services spending, intellectual property and construction by state

and local governments. Gross domestic product rose at a 3.5% annualized rate in the three months

ended in September, compared with a prior estimate of 3.2%, Commerce Department figures

showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 3.3% gain. The revised

growth estimate, still the fastest in two years, reflected updated figures on research and

development expenses from companies, spending by non-profit institutions and use of financial

services. The economy is unlikely to sustain such a pace in the final three months of the year,

instead probably growing at a 2.2%, according to the median projection of analysts surveyed by

Bloomberg earlier this month.

Britain’s economy expanded faster than previously thought in the three months after the EU

referendum, underlining the miscalculations by the Treasury and other forecasters who predicted

that the UK would suffer a recession following a vote for Brexit. Official figures showed GDP growth

in the third quarter rose by 0.6%, compared with initial estimates of 0.5%. The unexpected upgrade

to GDP came as the Office for National Statistics made surprise revisions across all sectors of the

economy. The services, industrial and construction sectors – which accounts for about 80% of

economic activity – and the industrial and construction sectors were all revised upwards. The

services sector – which accounts for about 80% of economic activity was the main driver of growth,

led by transport and communications including online retail deliveries which expanded by 2.6%.

The finance sector grew by 0.8% quarter on quarter. But the first two quarters of the year were

revised down by one percentage point each. This left the annual growth rate at 2.2%, which was

lower than the earlier estimate of 2.3%.

The Bank of Japan’s December monetary policy was left unchanged by a majority vote of seven to

two. The bank pledged to purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at an annual pace of around

80 trillion yen in order to maintain a 10-year JGB yield of around 0%. Interest rates were also left

unchanged at -0.1%. As it did in its previous meeting, the BOJ said that it will maintain this policy as

long as it is necessary to achieve and maintain the bank’s 2% price stability target in a stable

manner. It also said that it would continue to expand the nation’s monetary base at its current pace

of around 80 trillion yen per annum until it core consumer price inflation exceeds 2% and stay there

in a stable manner. While it made no change to policy settings, it did upgrade its assessment of the

economy, noting that a “moderate recovery trend had continued while exports picked up. It

expects the moderate recovery to turn into a modest expansion in the period ahead, saying that

domestic demand was likely to follow an uptrend with a virtuous cycle from income to spending

being maintained in both the corporate and household sectors. On exports, it said that they were

expected to follow a moderate increasing trend on the back of an improvement in overseas

economies.

Gold imports witnessed a fall of 30.5% to USD 15.74 billion in April-November of the current fiscal

year which is expected to keep a lid on the current account deficit. Total imports of the precious

SINCE 1989

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metal in the corresponding period of 2015-16 stood at USD 22.64 billion. Softening prices of the

precious metal globally as well as locally are seen to be at work. However, gold imports grew for

the second straight month in November by rising 23.24% to USD 4.36 billion, according to the

commerce ministry data. The increase in gold imports pushed the trade deficit to about two-year

high of USD 13 billion in November from USD 10.33 billion in the same month last year. India is one

of the largest gold importers in the world and the imports mainly take care of demand from the

jewellery industry. For the full year of 2015-16, CAD stood at USD 22.1 billion (1.1% of GDP) as

against USD 26.8 billion (1.3% of GDP) in 2014-15. In volume terms, the country's total official gold

imports declined to 60 tonnes in April-July of this fiscal, much lower than 250 tonnes in the year-

ago period. India imported 650 tonnes of gold in 2015-16. The imports remained stable at around

100 tonnes in November despite fall in sales of jewellery due to the cash crunch following

demonetisation.

The Employees Provident Fund Organisation’s apex decision making body, the Central Board of

Trustees (CBT), has taken a decision to lower the interest rate to 8.65% for the current fiscal from

8.8% in 2015—16. As per the EPFO income projections, retaining 8.8% rate of interest for the

current fiscal would have left a deficit of Rs. 383 crore. However, the body could have utilised

about Rs. 409 crore surpluses with it, which accrued after providing 8.8% rate of interest for 2015-

16, to retain the same rate of return for the current fiscal.

Equity market performance

Market was very weak throughout the week while all major indices declined in the range of 1% to

4.5%. BSE Sensex declined by 1.7% to 26,041 but BSE Mid cap index and Small cap index closed

down by 3.9% and 2.6% respectively. BSE Healthcare and BSE Metals were the largest loser which

declined by 4.3% 14,572 and 4.2% 9,989 respectively during the week. Amongst Nifty Fifty stocks

GAIL was the biggest gainer which increased by 4.5% to Rs. 434 while Axis Bank was the biggest

loser which declined by 7.7% to Rs. 436 followed by Idea Cellular which was down by 7.2% to Rs. 71

during the week.

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Currency, Commodity and Interest rates During the week, INR declined against all major currencies except GBP. INR decreased by 0.2% to

Rs. 67.9 against USD while INR witnessed major declined of 0.9% to Rs. 57.9 against Japanese Yen

and increased by 0.9% to Rs. 83.5 against GBP. All major commodities were down except Crude and

Aluminium during the week where gold price fell down by 0.2% to Rs. 27,273 (10-Gram) while silver

fell down by 1.4% to 38,509 (1kg) and Copper decreased by 3.7% to 374 (1kg) but Brent crude price

increased by 2.1% to Rs. 3,779 (1 Barrel). Major GOI bonds yield closed up with positive note where

5-Year Bonds were the largest gainer with rise 2.3% during the week.

Key economic events next week

Sector / company specific news

Promoter Company EBITO Chemiebeteiligungen AG has sold more than 13% shareholding in

specialty chemicals company Clariant Chemicals through block deals on Friday. However, buyers

were mutual fund houses and insurance company, which bought 11.79% stake or more than 27

lakh shares at a price of Rs. 635 each via block deals. ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, SBI Mutual Fund

and Sundaram BNP Paribas Mutual Fund were other buyers, which purchased 267,450 shares

(1.15%), 916,500 shares (3.97%) and 514,750 shares (2.2%), respectively.

NMDC has invested Rs. 1,223 crore till September 2016 to set up a 3 million tonnes per annum

(MTPA) integrated steel plant at Nagarnar in Bastar district of Chhattisgarh. The plant is expected to

start trial production by mid-2017. The company has completed capital expenditure of Rs. 1,434

crore till September 2016, of which Rs.1,222 crore has been invested in Nagarnar steel plant, Rs. 17

crore in pallet plant at Donimalai, Rs. 75 crore in doubling of KK lines, Rs. 7.21 crore on

Kumarswamy mine and Rs. 5 crore in Bailadilla deposits.

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The board of directors of Pennar Industries Ltd is evaluating the merger of its subsidiary Pennar

Enviro Ltd into Pennar Industries. The Hyderabad-based Pennar Industries currently holds 51.03%

of the total equity of Pennar Enviro Ltd. The proposed merger is intended to position the

environment business for further rapid growth. The company has appointed an advisor for the

merger and will be in touch with all major stakeholders regarding this proposition. Pennar Enviro

provides turnkey solutions to its clients, services includes design, manufacturing, supply and

erection of desalination, water treatment and sewerage treatment plants. It is also engaged in

effluent treatment solutions and recycling systems. The company achieved a turnover of 100 crore

in the financial year 2016 and has an order book of around 200 crore. Some of the customers

include L&T, NPCIL, JSW Group, United Spirits, Murugappa Group and JBF Petrochemicals.

Cipla decided to seek shareholders’ approval to raise about Rs. 4,000 crore via issue of securities in

both domestic and global markets. The company’s board has approved raising funds up to Rs. 2,000

crore, Cipla Ltd. It could be via issue of shares or American Depository Receipts (ADRs) or Global

Depository Receipts (GDRs) or Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) or other securities,

whether denominated in rupee or foreign currency through a public issue or a private placement.

The board also approved raising of funds up to Rs. 2,000 crore by issue of non-convertible

debentures (NCDs) or bonds, in rupee or foreign currency. The fund raising is subject to necessary

permissions sanctions and approvals and the company is seeking approval of shareholders for the

aforesaid enabling resolutions by means of postal ballot.

State Bank of India (SBI) has received shareholders' approval for a preferential issue of equity

shares to the government for up to Rs. 5,681 crore. The bank has also got approval to raise up to

Rs. 15,000 crore through public or private placement. The issue price has been fixed at Rs. 269.59

per share, according to a release by the bank. Post the issue of fresh equity of Rs. 5,681 crore, the

government’s shareholding will increase to 61.23% of the post issue share capital as against current

holding of 60.18%.

Bajaj Auto said it will hike prices of its bikes by up to Rs. 1,500 from January in order to partially

offset the impact of rising input costs and upgrading of its entire portfolio to BS-IV emission levels.

“All two-wheeler manufacturers in the country are trying to be BS-IV compliant by April next year.

Some of the models have already been made BS-IV compliant and the company expects to covert

the rest of the product lines conforming to next level of emission norms by middle of next month.

As a consequence of shifting to BS—IV norms the company will be hiking the prices of our bikes

between Rs. 700 and Rs. 1,500, depending upon specific models, from next month. Currently, India

follows BS-III emission norms for two-wheelers. From April 2016, all new two-wheeler models

started complying with BS-IV emission norms, and the existing models would comply with BS-IV

emission norms from April 2017, on a pan-India basis.

Cyrus Mistry on Tuesday took the legal route in his fight against Tata Sons. Mistry has moved the

National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) to protect Tata Sons from “oppression and

mismanagement.” According to sources close to the development, the petition was filed under

Section 241 of the Companies Act. The petition also alleges break in governance and claims

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violation of the Articles of Association of Tata Sons due to the interference of “retired outsiders”.

The move comes a day after Mistry resigned from the board of all Tata Group listed companies. On

Monday, Mistry had indicated that that he will shift the fight from EGMs to the court, where he

expected the rule of law to be upheld. “Having reflected deeply, I think it is time to shift gears, up

the momentum, and be more incisive in securing the best interests of the Tata Group. In order to

be more effective, serve the objective of governance reform, and to regain lost ethical ground, I

have decided to shift from the forum of the EGMs to a larger platform and also one where the rule

of law and equity is upheld,” Mistry had said.

Sun Pharma plans to acquire a branded oncology product Odomzo from Novartis for an upfront

payment of USD 175 million and additional milestone payments. The product would help support

their expansion into branded oncology with an eye on global markets. Odomzo gives an

opportunity to meaningfully expand established branded dermatology business and support

expansion into Branded Oncology with a launched brand.

Shares of Divis Laboratories, on Friday, fell as much as 24% following reports of adverse

observations from the USFDA made on its Vizag facility. The observations pertain to data integrity,

improper controls and violations of current good manufacturing practices (cGMP). The USFDA

inspected the Unit-2 plant from November 29 to December 6 and issued a Form 483 with five

observations. The observations included proper controls not being exercised over computer

systems. Other observations include: facilities and equipment were not maintained to ensure purity

quality strength, while R&D division guides quality, production activities were inconsistent with

CGMP. Failure to conduct proper probe with respect to complaints and documentation and records

were not maintained properly Divis in its statement to stock exchanges on December 8 said it is

responding to the five observations within the time permitted. The company told media that the

observations don't have an impact on the operations of the company. It will soon be filing a reply.

Maruti Suzuki will invest an additional amount of Rs. 2000 crore at its state-of-the-art research and

development centre in Rohtak, Haryana over the next three years. C V Raman, executive director

(engineering), Maruti Suzuki said, "We have already set up test tracks at Rohtak. Majority of the

testing for the Brezza was done in India. We are going to invest another Rs. 2000 crore to augment

capability further at Rohtak by 2019." This would take the company's total investment at Rohtak to

Rs. 3800 crore. Separately, parent Suzuki would commission its fully owned manufacturing facility

in Gujarat in February 2017. Maruti Suzuki will get around 10,000 vehicle produced in Gujarat for

sale in the ongoing financial year.

Alkem Laboratories has received establishment inspection report (EIR) for its Daman facility after it

had submitted detailed remedial plan to the US health regulator. United States Food and Drug

Administration (USFDA) has issued an EIR for its Daman formulation facility which was inspected in

September 2016. The inspection has now been closed by the USFDA. The USFDA had inspected the

facility from September 20 to 29, 2016 and had issued Form 483 with 13 observations, post this, the

company had submitted a detailed corrective and preventive action (CAPA) plan to regulator within

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the stipulated timelines”, Alkem Laboratories said. “The USFDA has reviewed the CAPA and has

found them acceptable,” it added.

Welspun Enterprises, a part of USD 2.3 billion Welspun Group, announced plans to buy back up to

25% of its share capital at a price of Rs. 62 per equity share. “With a view of utilising the company’s

substantial cash reserves and in order to enhance shareholder value, the board has approved buy

back of 25% of the company’s share capital. However, the Rs. 227-crore buyback would be subject

to shareholders’ approval. The buyback would be at a price of Rs. 62 per equity share in cash for an

aggregate consideration not exceeding Rs. 2.7 billion. The promoter group, except the foreign co-

promoters holding 2.17%, have indicated their intention to participate in the proposed buyback.

The promoters hold a total 37.35% stake in the company. Public shareholders have 54.72% holding

in the firm.

Future outlook Global cues and capital flight from (equity and debt market) will give the direction to the market.

Sensex Chart:

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Weekender Stock Idea

Castrol India Ltd. (Rating:Buy; Price: Rs.367; Revised Target: Rs.451;Upside: 23%)

Shareholding Stock performance Key data

Background Castrol (MKT. cap Rs.18,150 crs) is a part of the BP Group. It is present in India for over 100 years & caters to the auto and non-auto lubricants & engine oil requirements of its customers. Nine Month CY2016 - Performance Analysis (Crore)

During 9MCY2016, Castrol’s sales increased by 3.2% to Rs. 2,588 crore as compared of Rs. 2,507 crore in 9MCY2015, sales revenue was driven by healthy volume growth in personal mobility segment. Net profit increased by 9.5% to Rs. 519 crore during the period as compared of Rs. 474 crore in the same period of the previous year while EPS increased to Rs. 10.5 from Rs. 9.6. Launch of New Products – Eco Friendly Castrol is known for the innovation in lubricants industry while delivering the best technology products to the customers. During 1HCY16, Castrol added two brands named Castrol GTX Ultraclean and Castrol GTX ECO. Castrol GTX Ultraclean is the cleanest GTX ever launched and helps keep car engines 50% cleaner than industry limits while GTX ECO is Castrol's pioneering first step in eco engineered lubricant technology which may reduce CO2 by 10%. In the industrial segment, it launched a high performance fluid Alusol SL 35 XBB. It delivers significant improvement for controlling manufacturing costs and increasing productivity which would benefit Castrol to increase profits and margins over the next few years. Volume Growth during the period Castrol witnessed volume growth across the major segments after a negative CAGR in the past four years while personal mobility segment was key segment which registered robust growth during 9MCY2016 and expected to register double digit growth in CY2017. Revision of stock Price We valued Castrol India on 2nd July 2016 with potential upside of 23% to Rs. 480, We have achieved our target while stock touch a high of Rs 495 however we revised our target on 26th September 2016 to Rs. 540 but now Crude oil prices has bottomed out and ranging in USD 50 to 56 per barrel

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thus higher crude oil prices may have a slight impact on bottom line hence we revise the stock price with potential upside of 24% to Rs. 451 from current level. Investment Argument

Leadership position Castrol is the market leader in the auto lubricant segment. It has a market share of 21% in the retail automotive sector. In the sub-segments, Castrol enjoys market share of 20% in CV, 30% in personal mobility (passenger cars & 2Ws) and 20% in industrial segment. Personal Mobility a strong performance Personal mobility segment has grown rapidly in the last decade, from a paltry 10% share 10 years ago to 40% share today. According to the management, segment is expected to register double digit volume growth for next few years. The demand will arise from new vehicles and also replacement demand. Chart 1: Volume mix Chart 2: Market Share

Pricing power due to strong product proposition Personal mobility is the B2C segment unlike industrial segment which is B2B. Here the company enjoys better pricing power and also the branding of its products is possible. Due to the quadrupling of the personal mobility volume in its volume mix, Castrol has been successful in taking price hikes. Chart 3: Sales and cost per litre Chart 4: Crude oil Price and INR stability

Strong Brand Position and Wide Distribution network

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Castrol’s strong brand name and wide distribution network allows it to command higher pricing power and premium for its brands over its competitors in spite significant fall down in crude oil price. Castrol, which is the price maker in the Indian automotive lubricant market, is expected to maintain stable realisation over the next few years. Improving margin profile Along with the product mix change and the improving pricing power the company has managed to improve its margin profile. Plus, the fact that the crude price has corrected sharply in last 1-2 years, has given an additional fillip to the margin of the company. Chart 5: EBITDA margin

Revival in Metals & Mining and Infrastructure will help volume growth The industrial lubricant segment comprises of sectors such as automotive, metals & mining road construction, non‐road transportation, manufacturing power, chemicals etc. Strengthening of the industrial recovery from campaigns like “Make in India” and “Smart Cities” could result in improved lube demand. However, mining and metals is on revival due to increase in commodities price for past three to four months which will help to increase the demand of industrial lube. Stable financial Position and Dividend pay-out ratio Castrol India has a robust profitability profile with RoE / RoCE in excess of 100% / 170%. The business model is neither very capex heavy nor involves significant amount of working capital. The cash generation is very strong which enables the company to payout 70-80% of its earnings as dividends. Chart 6: Robust trend in ROE and ROCE Chart 6: Stable Dividend Pay-out Ratio

13.6%

20.4%

17.3%15.8%

14.8%12.6%

17.5%18.1%

24.8%26.5%

22.4%20.0%

21.6%21.1%

27.1%

CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15

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Implementation of GST - lower price and higher volume Currently, lubricants industry is levied of excise duty by ~14% and a VAT rate by 14‐ 15%. We expect GST implementation will help to lower the effective tax rate, hence we can expect a decline in price which will help to increase the sales volume of Castrol. Valuation & view At current price of Rs. 367 Castrol India Ltd. is trading at 26x CY17e earnings. We recommend buying Castrol India Ltd. with a target price of Rs. 451 implying an upside potential of 23% from the current price. The growth in stock price is expected to be driven by strong financial position with no debt status, generation of EPS and free cash flow on account of new launches products and keeping consistency in dividend pay-out ratio.

Income statement and Balance Sheet data and Ratios

Company price chart

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DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES-

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