wednesday, january 31st 2018 d a i ly r e p o r … the future, kunciran-serpong toll road will be...

Wednesday, January 31st 2018

D A I LY R E P O R T

Daily Report is also available in BNI Sekuritas website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id

RESEARCH Equity

MARKET PREDICTION TODAY

JCI Is Predicted To Continue its Correction

On the global market, previously on Tuesday yesterday, the US market was in downtrend which Dow index declined by 1.37% to level 26,076 while Nasdaq decreased by 0.86% then followed by S&P500 which was down by 1.09%. Meanwhile in European bourses, CAC Paris dropped by 0.87% while FTSE London declined by 1.09% while DAX Frankfurt decreased by 0.95%. Moreover, in domestic bourse, the JCI on Tuesday yesterday was in downtrend due to investors’ profit taking after the index reached its highest level. The JCI was closed down by 105 points (-1.57%) to level 6,575 which “foreign net sell” was reaching Rp1.19 trillion. All sector were declining with the biggest decreases were from miscellaneous industry which declined by -2.36% then followed by infrastructure sector that decreased by -2.25%. At the closing time of JCI on Tuesday, Rupiah (IDR) currency slightly weakened against US dollar (USD) to the level of IDR 13,430 per USD. The next issue should be watched is Indonesia Money Supply for Dec-17 period (Nov-17 increase of 9.3% MoM) and Japan Consumer Confidence Index for Jan-18 period (Dec-17 of 44.7 vs. consensus of 44.9). We see that the declining JCI was due to the weakening global indices which concern on US interest rate decision and the pressure of US treasury yield. Apple stocks sell-off because of the reduction in iPhone X production also became investors’ concern that would likely to affects both US and its manufacturing country in East Asia. Thus, we predict that JCI today would continue its correction. The index movement is estimated in the range of 6,522-6,651 with our top stocks pick for today trading sessions are KAEF, INAF, ANTM, INCO.

Analyst: Dessy Lapagu ([email protected])

COMPANY/INDUSTRY UPDATE

PT Jasa Marga (JSMR) Will Be Finishing Serpong-Kunciran Toll Road. BUY. Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra.

Sales of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) Rose by 38% to Rp12.55 Trillion Last Year. UNDER REVIEW. Analyst: Ankga Adiwirasta.

PT Kimia Farma (Persero) Tbk (KAEF)’s Revenue Target in 2018. BUY. Analyst: Dessy Lapagu.

GAPKI Targets CPO Production This Year to Increase by 10% YoY. NEUTAL. Analyst: Thennesia Debora.

Global Indices Closing Change %Chg %Ytd P/EAmericasINDU Index 26,076.89 -362.59 -1.37 5.49 21.50SPX Index 2,822.43 -31.1 -1.09 5.57 23.41CCMP Index 7,402.48 -64.023 -0.86 7.23 38.69IBOV Index 84,482.46 -215.56 -0.25 10.58 20.89EMEAUKX Index 7,587.98 -83.55 -1.09 (1.30) 22.48CAC Index 5,473.78 -47.81 -0.87 3.03 18.65RTSSTD Index 14,929.04 -6.24 -0.04 9.19 7.54IBEX Index 10,428.20 -127.4 -1.21 3.83 15.85FTSEMIB Index 23,480.92 -320.63 -1.35 7.45 3.88AEX Index 561.00 -5.06 -0.89 3.02 19.15SMI Index 9,433.34 -23.93 -0.25 0.55 26.00Asia / PacificNKY Index 23,264.17 -27.8 -0.12 2.19 19.57HSI Index 32,607.29 -359.6 -1.09 8.98 15.14SHCOMP Index 3,488.01 -34.992 -0.99 5.47 17.75TWSE Index 11,076.78 -145.03 -1.29 4.08 16.21KOSPI Index 2,573.72 5.98 0.23 4.31 13.38JCI Index 6,575.49 -105.127 -1.57 3.46 25.05SET Index 1,826.61 -10.88 -0.59 4.16 18.59PCOMP Index 8,910.48 -148.14 -1.64 4.11 24.02SENSEX Index 36,033.73 -249.52 -0.69 5.80 24.54FSSTI Index 3,548.74 -28.33 -0.79 4.29 11.83

Description Last Previous %ChgMarket Capitalization (IDR Trillion) 7,312.26 7,428.78 -1.57Transaction Volume (Million Shares) 10,046.00 10,039.84 0.06Transaction Value (IDR Million) 9,008.00 8,529.60 5.61Stocks Value (IDR) 896.68 849.58 5.54Net Foreign (IDR Million) (1,193,820.00) (409,082.75) 191.83

Commodit ies Last Previous %ChgNickel (US$/Ton) 13,350.00 13,805.00 -3.30Copper (US$/Ton) 7,050.00 7,085.00 -0.49Tins (US$/Ton) 21,625.00 21,925.00 -1.37Oil (US$/BBL) (*) 64.50 65.56 -1.62Gas (US$/MMBTU) 5.15 5.26 -2.15Coal (US$/Ton) (**) 107.15 109.00 -1.70Gold (USD/OZ) 1,338.20 1,338.51 -0.02CPO PALMROTT(USD/ton) 655.00 655.00 0.00CPO MALAYSIA(RM/ton) 2,479.00 2,458.00 0.85(*) WTI Cushing(**) McCloskey Newscatle

ADR Stocks Last (US$) % Conversition Last (IDR)(US$) Chg (IDR)

Stocks Code Last (US$) %Change Conv (Rp) Last (IDR)Telkom TLK US 29.81 0.10 10,496.98 3970.00

Company/Industry Updates Recommendation TP (IDR)PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR) BUY 7,250PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk (ANTM) UNDER REVIEW -PT Kimia Farma (Persero) Tbk (KAEF) BUY 3,000CPO Sector NEUTRAL -

Bloomberg Code



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RESEARCH Equity

HIGHLIGHT NEWS PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) achieved unaudited net revenues of

Rp12.55 trillion in 2017, or up by 38% compared to unaudited net revenues of Rp9.11 trillion in 2016.

PT Wijaya Karya Gedung Tbk (WEGE) obtained three new contracts in amount of Rp422.1 billion at the beginning of 2018. WEGE has new contracts of Rp7.83 trillion this year.

PT Selamat Sempurna Tbk (SMSM) has received dividend income from one of its subsidiaries which is operating in Malaysia. The revenue comes from the interim dividends of fiscal year 2018.

PT Sidomulyo Selaras Tbk (SDMU) will conduct a private placement. Through this action, the company will get fresh funds flow at least Rp30.74 billion.

Starbucks coffee shop is still a top subsidiary of PT MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPB). This year, the business under PT Sari Coffee Indonesia gets back the most of its expansion portion. The total plan of additional new outlets of MAP Boga during 2018 which may reach 70 outlets.

(Source: IQ Plus; Bisnis Indonesia)

Net Foreign BUY Accumulation

USD/IDR Currency and JCI

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

-50,000,000

-40,000,000

-30,000,000

-20,000,000

-10,000,000

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

4/01

/201

716

/01/

2017

26/0

1/20

177/

02/2

017

20/0

2/20

172/

03/2

017

14/0

3/20

1724

/03/

2017

6/04

/201

720

/04/

2017

4/05

/201

717

/05/

2017

30/0

5/20

1712

/06/

2017

22/0

6/20

1712

/07/

2017

24/0

7/20

173/

08/2

017

15/0

8/20

1728

/08/

2017

8/09

/201

720

/09/

2017

3/10

/201

713

/10/

2017

25/1

0/20

176/

11/2

017

16/1

1/20

1728

/11/

2017

11/1

2/20

1721

/12/

2017

5/01

/201

817

/01/

2018

29/0

1/20

18

Accumulation JCI Index

12,900

13,000

13,100

13,200

13,300

13,400

13,500

13,600

13,700

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000JCI Index USDIDR

No Stock Top Value (IDR)1 BBRI IJ 670,634,400,000 2 TLKM IJ 561,035,600,000 3 BBCA IJ 519,934,000,000 4 PGAS IJ 442,549,000,000 5 BMRI IJ 411,065,100,000

No Stock Top Volume (Shares)1 BUMI IJ 979,081,600.00 2 TRAM IJ 689,493,500.00 3 RIMO IJ 594,533,600.00 4 MYRX IJ 536,939,800.00 5 ANTM IJ 315,950,100.00

No Top Gainers % Change1 BTON IJ 32.482 SMMT IJ 20.473 BBNP IJ 16.134 AKSI IJ 13.585 TAXI IJ 12

No Top Losers % Change1 DWGL IJ -11.112 LEAD IJ -9.093 BVIC IJ -8.764 KARW IJ -8.555 BUVA IJ -7.83

No Leading Movers % Change1 INKP IJ 4.692 BTPN IJ 7.673 AGRO IJ 10.004 TPIA IJ 0.775 INAF IJ 5.05

No Lagging Movers % Change1 HMSP IJ -3.572 TLKM IJ -2.463 BBRI IJ -2.114 ASII IJ -2.605 BMRI IJ -1.53



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RESEARCH Equity


News: PT Jasa Marga (JSMR) Will Be Finishing Serpong-Kunciran Toll Road

JSMR through its subsidiary PT Marga Trans Nusantara targets to complete Kunciran-Serpong toll road development in November 2018. In the future, Kunciran-Serpong toll road will be integrated with Kunciran-Cengkareng and Serpong-Cinere toll roads.

Analyst Opinion:

We believe that the commencement plan of Kunciran-Serpong toll road which is integrated with other two toll roads will be an attractive point for the customers. It will accelerate the traffic in Serpong and surrounding areas. On the other side, Kunciran-Serpong toll road may support JSMR’s performance growth in the long-term. We estimate JSMR to book revenue and net profit growth of 15.1% YoY to Rp 10.9 trillion and -2.4% YoY to Rp 2.5 trillion respectively in FY18. Meanwhile, operating margin is forecasted to reach 46.2%, while net profit margin would be 23.0%. The company is estimated to record ROE of 14.8% and ROA of 4.0% this year. Currently, JSMR stock is traded at forward 2018E PER and PBV of 15.1x and 2.2x correspondingly. Thus, we set BUY recommendation for JMSR with a target price (TP) of Rp7,250 per share.

Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra ([email protected])

Income statement (Rp billion)

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018EToll and other revenue 7,227.79 7,630.70 8,832.35 9,502.06 10,940.75Operating profit 3,072.56 3,477.70 4,165.50 5,048.47 5,054.63 Interest expense (1,215.30) (1,405.00) (1,509.00) (1,382.94) (1,499.40)Pretax income 1,850.56 2,068.40 2,649.68 3,658.64 3,548.27 Minority interest 184.70 147.20 86.26 92.31 106.29Net income 1,421.66 1,466.50 1,889.34 2,580.19 2,519.11Basic EPS 209.07 215.66 277.84 379.38 370.40EBITDA 3,199.83 4,264.25 5,037.05 5,869.71 6,346.17Balance sheet (Rp billion)

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018ECash 3,290.78 3,323.20 4,124.97 7,269.65 8,099.23Short-term investment 7.14 7.00 7.71 8.49 9.33Accounts receivable 48.09 164.40 8,278.50 7,450.65 4,470.39Other current assets 199.80 234.50 554.72 266.22 283.28Total current assets 3,545.82 3,729.10 12,965.90 14,995.01 12,862.23Toll concession rights and others23,941.40 24,864.70 34,703.31 39,908.81 45,298.07Total Assets 31,859.99 36,724.85 53,500.32 60,334.77 63,217.25Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityAccounts payable 182.10 137.50 134.77 104.13 119.90Short-term borrowings 863.06 2,762.80 6,765.31 6,798.55 6,835.11Other short-term liabilities 3,255.82 4,643.10 11,726.88 12,783.24 13,852.30Total Current Liabilities 4,300.97 7,543.40 18,626.96 19,685.92 20,807.31Long-term borrowings 12,629.27 11,974.40 14,590.82 19,916.27 19,760.15Other long-term liabilities 3,909.06 4,838.70 3,943.79 2,488.57 2,812.36Total Long-Term Liabilities 16,538.33 16,813.10 18,534.61 22,404.84 22,572.52Total Liabilities 20,839.31 24,356.50 37,161.57 42,090.76 43,379.82Minority interest 1,560.60 1,950.20 2,659.71 2,752.02 2,858.31Total Equity 9,460.10 10,418.55 13,679.15 15,492.32 16,979.35



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RESEARCH Equity


News: Sales of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) Rose by 38% to Rp12.55 Trillion Last Year

ANTM booked net sales (unaudited) of Rp 12.55 trillion in 2017 which the sales rose by 38% YoY compared to sales of Rp 9.11 trillion during 2016 (audited). Gold commodities became the largest contributor to the total sales of ANTM in 2017 which the gold sales of Rp 7.37 trillion or 59% of the unaudited total sales of the company. ANTM's gold sales last year rose by 33% compared to the previous year sales of Rp 5.54 trillion. The increasing revenue was not only from gold commodities but also from the sales of ferronickel which became the second largest revenue contributor. The sales of ferronickel rose by 14% YoY to Rp 3.17 trillion. The sales contribution of ferronickel reached 25% of ANTM's total revenues while ANTM’s nickel ore sales jumped by 347% YoY to Rp 1.32 trillion in 2016.

Analyst Opinion:

We view positively to ANTM sales increase of 38% in 2017. In general, ANTM’s performance in 2017 is quite good with successfully reached sales growth of 38%. We are still calculating to determine the latest ANTM stock valuation after ANTM’s market price reached our target price of Rp 880. With the increasing prices of metal commodities, we have optimism about ANTM’s stock prospect ahead. Currently, ANTM stock is traded with forward 2018E PE of 29.0 x and PBV of 1.1 x which are still relatively lower than the mining industry average with PER of 31.90x and PBV of 1.37x. Recommendation: UNDER REVIEW.

Analyst: Ankga Adiwirasta ([email protected])

News: PT Kimia Farma (Persero) Tbk (KAEF)’s Revenue Target in 2018

Analyst Opinion:

KAEF targets its 2018 revenue of Rp8 trillion, which is an increase of 37.7% from 2016 revenue or may rise by 86% from its revenue in 9M17 financial report. We see that the company acquisition of PT Dwaa Medical Ltd will potentially boost its revenue contribution since it will grab the Middle East market share especially with the significant numbers of Indonesian who do Hajj and Umroh trip every year. Other than that, KAEF still continues the construction of raw material factory for medicine in Cikarang which is expected to be operating in mid-2018. Currently, KAEF stock is traded at PE of 53.0x and PBV of 5.5x which are relatively higher than peers average PE of 33.0x and PBV of 1.1x, while the stock price has been depreciated by -8.89% as of YTD. Recommendation: BUY with target price (TP) of Rp3,000 per share. The TP has an upside potential of 22% from its closing price of Rp2,460 on January 30th, 2018.

Analyst: Dessy Lapagu ([email protected])

News: GAPKI Targets CPO Production This Year to Increase by 10% YoY

In FY17, CPO production reached 38.17 million tons (+17.4% YoY) and PKO production stagnant at 3.05 million tons. Year-end CPO stockpiles in FY17 rose to 4.02 million tons (+7.5% YoY).

Analyst Opinion:

The ease of the El Nino effect contributed to the recovery of CPO production this year. Nevertheless, we expect that the price movement of CPO this year will be limited and tend to be depressed due to a negative sentiment from global. India's government policy for raising its palm oil import duty by 15% from 7.5%, and the European parliament approving the abolition of CPO for biodiesel in 2021 are expected to dampen demand for CPO amid increasing production. Therefore, the issue of oversupply will press the price movement of CPO this year. Recommendation: NEUTRAL.

Analyst: Thennesia Debora ([email protected])



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RESEARCH Equity

TARGET PRICE



6

RESEARCH Equity

TARGET PRICE



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RESEARCH Equity

RESEARCH TEAM Phone : +62 21 25543946 (Hunting) Fax : +62 21 57935831 Email : [email protected] Website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id

Norico Gaman (Head of Research Division) [email protected] Ext: 3934 Investment Strategy

Maxi Liesyaputra (Head of Equity Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 3968 Construction, Property, Infrastructure, Cement

Ariawan (Head of Fixed Income Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 2098 Fixed Income Market, Corporate & Government Bond

Andri Zakarias Siregar (Head of Technical Analysis Research Department) [email protected] Ext: 2054 Market Strategy, Currency, Commodities, Bond & Stocks

Thennesia Debora (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 2123 Transportation, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Plantation, Health Care

Ankga Adiwirasta (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 3986 Consumer Good, Banking, Metal Mining, Telecommunication, Tower Infrastructure

Dessy Lapagu (Equity Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 2051 Poultry, Crops, Fishery, Retail, Coal Mining, Pharmaceutical

Ahmad Hapiz (Fixed Income Analyst) [email protected] Ext: 3978 Fixed Income Market, Corporate & Government Bond

R. Venia Allani Meissalina (Research Analyst/Assistant) [email protected] Ext: 2050 Data Administrator

Indah Lestari Permata H. (Research Analyst/Assistant) [email protected] Ext: 2073 Data Administrator



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RESEARCH Equity

EQUITY TEAM CM : +62 21 25543946 (Hunting) Fax No : +62 21 57935831 Entis Sutisman ext. 3945 [email protected] Head of Domestic Equity Department

Teguh Hendro ext. 3948 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader

Dharmawan P. ext. 3916 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader

Putri Erinasari ext. 3920 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader

Fian Pusparini ext. 3958 [email protected] Head of Domestic Equity Sales

Dini Desita ext. 3981 [email protected] Domestic Equity Sales

Danovan Yazir ext. 3929 [email protected] Domestic Equity Sales

Jufrani Amsal ext. 3957 [email protected] Head of Channel Distribution Division

Fahma Riniarti ext. 3917 [email protected] Head of Channel Development

P. Sariningsih ext. 3984 [email protected] Head of Branch Supervision

Teuku Hafez ext. 2084 [email protected] Branch Manager Mangga Dua, Jakarta

Hapsari ext. 2078 [email protected] Branch Manager Puri Indah, Jakarta

Fadjar H S ext. 2111 [email protected] Branch Manager Central Park, Jakarta

M. Yasrul ext. 2081 [email protected] Branch Manager Wisma Bumiputera

Fahmi Lubis ext. 2079 [email protected] Branch Manager Bandung

Rifaat Annur ext. 2091 [email protected] Branch Manager Yogyakarta

Agus Purwanto ext. 2090 [email protected] Branch Manager Solo

Achmad Ridwan ext. 2088 [email protected] Branch Manager Surabaya

Edith Febriana ext. 2082 [email protected] Branch Manager Malang

Ni Nyoman Citasti ext.2080 [email protected] Branch Manager Denpasar

Nirmasari N. ext. 2083 [email protected] Branch Manager Medan

Ari Magdalena ext. 2086 [email protected] Branch Manager Palembang

Rini Wati ext. 2085 [email protected] Branch Manager Pekanbaru

Allen Makalew ext. 2102 [email protected] Branch Manager Manado

Melisa ext. 2136 [email protected] Branch Manager Aceh

Yuniar Fariza D ext. 2064 [email protected] Branch Manager Banjarmasin

RESEARCH Equity

MAIN OFFICE - JAKARTA PT BNI SEKURITAS

Sudirman Plaza, Indofood Tower 16th Floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 76-78 Jakarta 12910, Indonesia

Phone: (62-21) 25543946 (Hunting) Fax: (62-21) 57935831

e-mail: [email protected] (General) Website: http://www.bnisekuritas.co.id

JAKARTA - Mangga Dua

Pertokoan Mangga Dua Blok E4 No. 7 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya, Jakarta Utara

Phone: (62-21) 6123804-5,62203890 Fax: (62-21) 6123806

e-mail: [email protected]

JAKARTA - Puri Indah Gedung Bank BNI Ruko Grand Puri Niaga

Puri Kencana Blok K 6 no.2J 2K Puri Kembangan, Jakarta Barat

Phone: (62-21) 58357464 Fax: (62-21) 58357465


JAKARTA - Central Park Central Park, APL Tower Podomoro City

Jl. Letjen S. Parman Kav 28, Tanjung Duren Selatan, Petamburan Phone: (62-21) 29034215

Fax: (62-21) 29034216 email: [email protected]

JAKARTA – Wisma Bumiputera

Wisma Bumiputera Lt. 6 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 75 Jakarta 12910

Phone: (62-21) 2523349 Fax: (62-21) 2523350


BANDUNG Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan 3

Bandung - 40117 Phone: (62-22) 4213375

Fax: (62-22) 4220604 e-mail: [email protected]

YOGYAKARTA

Jl. Laksda Adisucipto 137, Yogyakarta - 55282 Phone: (62-274) 581001-584032


SOLO

Jl. Honggo Wongso No. 24, Surakarta Phone: (62-271) 729667, 730525


SURABAYA

Jl. Gubernur Suryo No. 36, Surabaya Phone: (62-31) 5320912


MALANG Jl. Buring No. 58, Malang

Phone: (62-341) 321214,321213,321430 Fax: (62-341) 356876


DENPASAR Komplek Pertokoan Diponegoro Megah Blok A5-6 Lantai 2

Jl. Diponegoro No. 100, Denpasar - Bali Phone: (62-361) 264376, 2753389


MEDAN

Jl. Pemuda No. 12, Medan - 20151 Phone: (62-61) 4579616


PALEMBANG

Jl. Jend. Sudirman 132, Palembang - 30126 Phone: (62-711) 361969


PEKANBARU

Jl. Riau, No. 124, Bank BNI Lt. 2, Pekanbaru Phone: (62-761) 46757, 839698


MANADO

BNI KLN Megamas, Lt. 3, Kawasan Mega Mas Blok I C1 Jl. Piere Tendean, No. 20, Manado

Phone: (62-431) 847256 Fax: (62-24) 847256


ACEH Kantor Cabang BNI Banda Aceh Lt.2

Jl. KH. Ahmad Dahlan No. 111, Banda Aceh Phone: (62-651) 31109

Fax: (62-651) 31107

BANJARMASIN Gd. Bank BNI Antasari Lt. 2

Jl. Pangeran Antasari No. 44 RT 008, Banjarmasin Phone: (62-511) 3253735


This document is not intended to be an offer, or a satisfaction of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by BNI SEKURITAS or any other member of the BNI Group, including any other member of the BNI Group from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Dokumen ini tidak diperuntukan sebagai suatu penawaran, atau permohonan dari suatu penawaran, permintaan untuk membeli atau menjual efek dan segala hal yang berhubungan dengan efek (seperti efek yang disebutkan disini, atau dari emiten yang sama, dari waran atau hak memesan efek atau kepentingan lain dari efek tersebut). Seluruh informasi dan opini yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini dengan cara baik telah dihimpun dari atau berasal dari sumber-sumber yang dapat dipercaya dan diandalkan. Tidak ada pengatasnamaan atau jaminan, baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung dari BNI SEKURITAS atau pun pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI, termasuk pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI dari mana dokumen ini dapat diperoleh, terhadap keakuratan atau kelengkapan dari informasi yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini. Seluruh pendapat dan perkiraan dalam laporan ini merupakan pertimbangan kami pada tanggal tertera dan dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan.

wednesday, january 31st 2018 d a i ly r e p o r … the future, kunciran-serpong toll road will be...

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