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Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
FROM EQUITY RESEARCH
Mayora Indah: Upside emerges
(MYOR IJ. IDR 2,520. BUY. TP IDR 3,050)
We see the current weakness in MYOR’s share price performance as an opportunity to accumulate the shares given: (1) the expectation
of continued solid performance in the domestic market and (2) the potential for higher demand from continued expansion in export
markets. Upgrade to BUY with a higher TP of IDR 3,050 (FY19F PE of 34x).
To see the full version of this report, please click here
FY18 Results
BANKING ▪ BTPN Syariah: The strong growth continues click here
▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: A housing-driven bank click here CONSTRUCTION
▪ Jasa Marga: Slightly better than expected click here COAL
▪ Bukit Asam: Growth continues apace click here
MARKET NEWS
SECTOR
▪ Retail minimarts enjoy digital wallet boom CORPORATE
▪ BTN mulls possible acquisition of Jiwasraya ▪ DMAS targets 50% net profits growth
▪ XL Axiata to upgrade its transport OTN network in Sumatra PREVIOUS REPORT
▪ Garuda Maintenance Facility: Growth strategy to support future
earnings ▪ Perusahaan Gas Negara: Sector restructuring to Unlock PGN
volume growth ▪ Alam Sutra Realty: Cheap valuation with better earnings
prospect
▪ Strategy: The Big Day: Jokowi Leads in Quick Counts ▪ Automotive: Impressive Domestic Car Sales in Mar 2019
▪ Kino Indonesia: Enticing turnaround story ▪ Strategy: Progression Continues
▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Greater clarity ▪ BPD Jatim: Picking up the momentum
▪ Vale Indonesia: Set to recover
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 6.463 0,7 4,3 435
Thailand 1.671 (0,1) 6,9 1.313
Philippines 7.819 (0,2) 4,7 91
Malaysia 1.627 0,3 (3,7) 770
Singapore 3.353 (0,1) 9,3 647
Regional
China 3.199 (0,5) 28,3 66.239
Hong Kong 29.963 (0,0) 15,9 13.674
Japan 22.260 0,2 11,2 9.563
Korea 2.221 0,2 8,8 4.064
Taiwan 11.026 0,3 13,3 3.611
India 38.565 (0,2) 6,9 326
NASDAQ 8.121 1,3 22,4 114.614
Dow Jones 26.656 0,5 14,3 10.180
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14.080 0,0 0,7 2,2
BI7DRRR % 6,00 - - -
10y Gov Indo bond 7,66 0,0 0,1 (0,4)
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 85 0,2 (9,3) (17,1)
Gold US$/toz 1.272 (0,1) (3,2) (0,8)
Nickel US$/mt.ton 12.308 (2,2) (4,6) 16,1
Tin US$/mt.ton 19.980 (1,8) (7,0) 2,4
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2.339 (0,9) 6,6 (1,1)
Corn US$/mt.ton 128 (1,2) (5,0) (4,1)
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 66 (0,4) 11,9 45,4
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 75 0,6 11,2 38,5
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2.058 0,2 10,4 5,4
Rubber USd/kg 151 (0,1) 2,0 21,1
Pulp US$/tonne 1.205 N/A 2,8 20,5
Coffee US$/60kgbag 71 0,4 (5,3) (5,5)
Sugar US$/MT 338 (0,1) 0,8 1,7
Wheat US$/ton 121 0,7 (5,5) (14,2)
Soy Oil US$/lb 28 (2,2) (2,1) 1,9
Soy Bean US$/by 862 (1,7) (4,6) (2,3)
Source: Bloomberg
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Company Update
Wednesday,24 April 2019
Mayora Indah(MYOR IJ) BUY
UPGRADE Upside emerges
We see the current weakness in MYOR’s share price performance as an opportunity to accumulate the shares given: (1) the expectation of continued solid performance in the domestic market and (2) the potential for higher demand from continued expansion in export markets. Upgrade to BUY with a higher TP of IDR 3,050 (FY19F PE of 34x). Steady growth with innovative products. Mayora is one of many FMCG companies that offers consumers many new products/variants within its existing brands. Based on our survey, Mayora launched more than 10 new products/variants last year. Despite insignificant price increases, these new products/variants were able to sustain solid growth in the FY18 revenues. Supported by Indonesia’s sizeable population, the market for Cookies and Crackers is estimated to reach USD1.78bn by end-2019 with steady growth of 9.3% CAGR in 2019-23 (Statista). Additionally, the instant coffee market is also expected to book strong growth of 10.9% CAGR in the same period (Statista). Solid earnings growth expected in FY19F. Recovery in the people’s purchasing power will raise consumer demand and support FY19F revenues growth of 15.4% yoy, we believe. With the Ramadhan festive season approaching, the company will boost production given the higher demand for consumer products. At the same time, the company will also benefit from a strong export market contribution which provides natural hedging against currency volatility. With relatively stable raw material prices, we expect MYOR to maintain its gross margin at 26%. We also estimate lower A&P expenses this year which will help the FY19 bottom line to grow 17% yoy to IDR2tn. We have revised up our FY19F earnings estimate by 17.5%. Upgrade to BUY. We believe the catalysts are: (1) increasing demand from export markets and (2) continued solid local demand which will sustain earnings going forward. In our view, the current weakness in the share price represents an opportunity for investors to accumulate the shares. Taking into account our new forecast, we upgrade our recommendation to BUY with a higher TP of IDR 3,050 (FY19F PE of 34x). At the current share price, MYOR is trading at FY19F PE of 28.1x – below its average 2-y PE of 30x. The risks to our recommendation include persistently high A&P expenses that would rein in earnings as well as higher oil/raw material prices.
Last price (IDR) 2,520
Target Price (IDR) 3,050
Upside/Downside +21.0%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 2,790
Stock Statistics
Sector CONSUMER
Bloomberg Ticker MYOR IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 22,359
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 56,344/4,002
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 6.2/0.4
Major shareholders (%)
UNITA BRANINDO PT 32.9
MAYORA DHANA UTAMA PT 26.1
Estimated free float 15.7
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2019F 2020F 2021F
Danareksa 89.9 105.6 124.3
Consensus 89.4 103.6 113.3
Danareksa/Cons 0.5 2.0 9.7
MYOR relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
x Natalia Sutanto
(62-21) 2955 5888 ext.3508
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
Revenue (IDRbn) 20,817 24,061 27,766 31,422 35,016 EBITDA (IDRbn) 3,000 2,628 3,825 4,360 5,033 EBITDA Growth (%) 6.0 (12.4) 45.5 14.0 15.4 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,594 1,716 2,010 2,362 2,779 EPS (IDR) 71.3 76.8 89.9 105.6 124.3 EPS growth (%) 17.7 7.6 17.1 17.5 17.7 BVPS (IDR) 321.4 373.1 440.0 518.6 611.2 DPS (IDR) 21.0 24.7 23.0 27.0 31.7 PER (x) 35.5 33.0 28.1 24.0 20.4 PBV (x) 7.9 6.8 5.8 4.9 4.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 19.6 22.9 15.5 13.5 11.5
Source : MYOR, Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Result Note
Tuesday,23 April 2019
BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ) BUY
Maintain The strong growth continues
We reiterate our BUY call on BTPS with a GGM-derived TP of IDR2,400 (implying 3.5x 2019F P/BV) following the release of the 1Q19 results that are inline with our expectation. NIM will remain high in our view despite the gradual decline to 38.0% this year as BTPS will maintain its core business in the productive female borrowers segment. As for the funding mix, it will still be dominated by TD with a 79.8% contribution to deposits by 2019F. All in all, we assume a 408bps credit cost and 19.7% yoy net profits growth this year. 1Q19 highlights. The 1Q19 net profits of IDR288bn (+35.8% yoy) are inline with our estimate supported by strong 20.3% yoy financing growth and a lower credit cost of 353bps with a 1.4% gross NPLs ratio as of March 2019. The loans loss coverage (LLC) ratio climbed to 227% as of March 2019 due to the bank’s decision to allocate ample provisions on its financing exposure in Lombok and coastal towns on the Sunda Straits. If we strip out this one-off event, the LLC ratio would stand at 159%. An exceptionally high NIM. Thanks to BTPS’ one-of-a-kind business model, its NIM will remain far above the industry level. However, we do expect the NIM to gradually decline to 38.0% in FY19F given higher individual financing exposure. This individual financing is still in the pilot project stage and only offered to borrowers who have already passed cycle 5 (each cycle has a 52-week tenor). Meanwhile, funding is still largely provided by wealthy individuals who place their funds in TD products (under the mudharabah scheme). Thus, we assume a 5.8% blended CoF this year. Decent ROAE outlook at above 20%. High loans growth of at least 20% in the next two years should offset the lower expected NIM. Fee-income is not yet the focus as BTPS still seeks to grow its assets further. Credit costs, additionally, should be predictable given the bank’s financing portfolio. We assume dividends will only be distributed from FY21F’s net profit and beyond. This is because BTPN, as BTPS’ biggest shareholder, views that BTPS still needs sufficient capital to support its expansive financing growth. Thus, assuming net profits growth of 19.7% this year, the ROAE should reach 26.0%.
Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR2,400. We maintain our BUY call on BTPS with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR2,400 assuming 8.9% CoE, 23.9% sustainable ROAE and 3% long-term growth. Our TP implies 3.5x 2019F P/BV.
Last price (IDR) 2,390
Target Price (IDR) 2,400
Upside/Downside +0.4%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 2,400
Stock Statistics
Sector Banking
Bloomberg Ticker BTPS IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 7,704
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 18,412/1,308
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 78.8/5.6
Major shareholders (%)
PT. BTPN Tbk. 70.0
PT. Triputra Persada Rahmat 10.0
Estimated free float 20.0
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2019F 2020F 2021F
Danareksa 155.4 183.2 217.1
Consensus 148.9 179.5 227.3
Danareksa/Cons 4.3 2.0 (4.5)
BTPS relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
Eka Savitri
(62-21) 2955 5888 ext 3506
Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
PPOP (IDRbn) 1,143 1,578 1,951 2,355 2,830
Net profit (IDRbn) 670 965 1,197 1,411 1,672
EPS (IDR) 96.7 129.8 155.4 183.2 217.1
EPS growth (%) 62.5 34.3 19.7 17.9 18.5
BVPS (IDR) 325.2 537.5 674.1 857.3 1,020.1
PER (x) 24.7 18.4 15.4 13.0 11.0
PBV (x) 7.3 4.4 3.5 2.8 2.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
ROAE (%) 34.8 30.9 26.0 23.9 23.1
Source : BTPS, Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Result Note
Tuesday,24 April 2019
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ) BUY
Maintain A housing-driven bank
We continue to like BBTN given its strong core business model in the housing-related segment. Nonetheless, the implementation plans for PSAK 71 in 2020 remain an overhang with a 45.1% coverage ratio as of March-2019. As such, the short-term priority for BBTN is to increase its coverage ratio followed by a rights issue. We believe that BBTN will likely conduct the rights issue in 2020F following the formation of the SOE’s financial services holding entity. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of IDR3,000.
1Q19 highlights. The net profits of IDR723bn are inline with our forecast and the consensus as 1Q accounted for 18.8%-24.2% of FY performance in the past three years. Loans growth remained strong at 19.6% yoy in March 2019 supported by 28.9% yoy growth in subsidized mortgages. NIM itself dropped to 3.6% due to higher pressure on the blended CoF. In addition, credit costs of 42bps in 1Q19 were lower than our forecast of 77bps in FY19F. The gross NPLs ratio stood at 2.9% as of March 2019. Subsidized mortgages remain the growth driver. BBTN’s management reaffirmed its commitment toward providing subsidized mortgages under the FLPP and interest rate subsidy schemes. The IDR5.2tn allocation for the FLPP funding scheme is likely to maintain the 75:25 ratio between the government and SMF. As for the SSB scheme (IDR3.4tn), the government will continue to use the 12-month SBI (current rate: 6.77%) as its reference rate for interest rate subsidies. As such, with more flexibility in the government’s schemes coupled with the affordable funding provided by SMF, we expect 17.0% growth in subsidized mortgages in 2019F.
Seeking a higher coverage ratio in the short-term. BBTN’s management still seeks to increase its coverage ratio to 76% by end-2019F. Nonetheless, we expect a 67.9% coverage ratio assuming 14.5% yoy loans growth and a 2.6% gross NPLs ratio this year, higher than BBTN’s management guidance of a 2.4% gross NPLs ratio. To reach 100% coverage by January 1, 2020, BBTN will need to allocate an additional IDR2.3tn of provisions, which would likely offset its equity. Thus, CAR would drop by c.1.5% from 16.6% by the end of 2020F.
BUY with a TP of IDR3,000. Maintain BUY with a GGM-derived TP of IDR3,000 assuming a CoE of 10.5%, a sustainable ROAE of 12.0% and 3% long-term growth. Our TP implies 1.2x 2019F PBV (-0.25SD of its 10-yr mean).
Last price (IDR) 2,630
Target Price (IDR) 3,000
Upside/Downside +14.1%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 3,000
Stock Statistics
Sector Banking
Bloomberg Ticker BBTN IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 10,590
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 27,852/1,978
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 81.0/5.8
Major shareholders (%)
Government of Indonesia 60.0
Estimated free float 40.0
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2019F 2020F 2021F
Danareksa 291.6 347.4 410.9
Consensus 310.6 369.5 411.9
Danareksa/Cons (6.1) (6.0) (0.2)
BBTN relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
Eka Savitri
(62-21) 2955 5888 ext 3506
Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
PPOP (IDRbn) 4,776 5,308 5,879 6,802 7,759
Net profit (IDRbn) 3,027 2,808 3,088 3,678 4,350
EPS (IDR) 285.9 265.2 291.6 347.4 410.9
EPS growth (%) 15.6 (7.3) 10.0 19.1 18.3
BVPS (IDR) 2,046.1 2,251.8 2,485.1 2,763.0 3,091.7
PER (x) 9.2 9.9 9.0 7.6 6.4
PBV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
Dividend yield (%) 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.1
ROAE (%) 14.8 12.3 12.3 13.2 14.0
Source : BBTN, Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Results Note
Wednesday,24 April 2019
Jasa Marga(JSMR IJ) BUY
Maintain Slightly better than expected
JSMR booked flattish earnings growth in 1Q19 of 0.3%yoy to IDR585bn on the back of 5.7%yoy growth in revenues and higher interest expenses. The result is slightly above our estimate and the consensus. We maintain our BUY call on JSMR given: 1) potentially higher traffic on the Jakarta – Cikampek toll road from a change in the payment system at the Cikarang Utama toll gates, 2) potential tariff adjustments on the Jakarta – Cikampek toll road when the Jakarta – Cikampek elevated toll road begins operation, and 3) potential gains booked from divestment through DINFRA.
JSMR booked flattish earnings growth in 1Q19 of 0.3%yoy to IDR585bn (1Q18: IDR583bn) on the back of 5.7%yoy revenues growth and higher interest expenses. The result is 27.7% of our full year target and 29.9% of the consensus. Last year, the 1Q18 earnings were 26.5% of the full year number, while the average rate in the past two years is 25.7%. Hence, the 1Q19 result is slightly above our estimate and the consensus.
Toll and other operating revenues in 1Q19 reached IDR2.4tn, up moderately by 5.7%yoy, reflecting delays in tariff increases on the Jakarta – Cikampek and Prof. Dr. Sedyatmo toll roads. Nonetheless, the Jakarta – Cikampek toll road remains the main revenues contributor (11.4% of JSMR’s toll revenues), followed by JORR section non S (10.9%) and Cikampek – Padalarang (10.1%). Meanwhile, the Prof. Dr. Sedyatmo toll road saw an increase in its tariffs by IDR500/car to IDR7,500/car as of 14 Feb 19.
We like JSMR given: 1) potential changes in the payments scheme for the Jakarta – Cikampek toll road. JMSR plans to stop using the Cikarang Utama gate to reduce congestion on the Jakarta – Cikampek toll road. Starting in May19, vehicles going to Bandung will have to pay at Sadang at KM 72. Meanwhile, vehicles going to Central Java will pay in Cikopo. This should reduce the congestion and result in increased traffic on the toll road.
2) JSMR might make tariff adjustments when the Jakarta – Cikampek elevated toll road begins operation. The new elevated toll road is targeted to start commercially in Sep19. We acknowledge that the current Jakarta – Cikampek toll road tariff is only IDR15,000/car for 73km, which will be significantly different for the new elevated toll road. Based on a 36.4km length for the new elevated toll road and a tariff of IDR1,250/km, the tariff for the elevated toll road should reach IDR45,500/car or more than three times the tariff for the existing toll road. A higher tariff would naturally boost JSMR’s revenues. This toll road had traffic of 181.6mn vehicles in 2018 and accounted for 14.3% of JSMR’s traffic.
Reiterate BUY. We adjust our model on the back of the 1Q19 result. We expect FY19 earnings to decline by 0.5%yoy given IDR877bn of one-time gains from divestment booked in 2018.
Last price (IDR) 5,975
Target Price (IDR) 6,700
Upside/Downside +12.1%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 6,500
Stock Statistics
Sector Toll Road
Bloomberg Ticker JSMR IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 7,258
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 43,366/3,080
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 39.0/2.8
Major shareholders (%)
Government 70.0
Public 30.0
Estimated free float n/a
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2019F 2020F 2021F
Danareksa 302.0 313.1 371.9
Consensus 283.5 317.9 338.4
Danareksa/Cons 6.5 (1.5) 9.9
JSMR relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
x Maria Renata
(62-21) 2955 5888 ext.3513
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
Revenue (IDRbn) 8,922 9,784 10,879 12,768 15,150 EBITDA (IDRbn) 3,328 3,581 4,281 4,995 5,454 EBITDA Growth (%) 9.7 7.6 19.6 16.7 9.2 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,200 2,203 2,192 2,272 2,699 EPS (IDR) 303.2 303.5 302.0 313.1 371.9 EPS growth (%) 9.5 0.1 (0.5) 3.7 18.8 BVPS (IDR) 2,080.2 2,329.7 2,600.1 2,883.0 3,223.6 DPS (IDR) 78.1 60.6 30.3 30.2 31.3 PER (x) 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.1 16.1 PBV (x) 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.7 19.7 18.2 16.0 15.0
Source : JSMR, Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Results Note
Wednesday,24 April 2019
Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) BUY
Maintain Growth continues apace
Bukit Asam (PTBA) reported net profits of IDR1.1tn (+3.9% qoq, but -21.6% yoy) in 1Q19. The net profit is slightly below our forecast (22.0%) but within consensus estimates (24%). With the expectation of greater railway capacity, we believe that the company can further increase coal production going forward. Maintain BUY with a target price of IDR5,200 (based on DCF valuation with WACC of 12.7%). Higher quarterly net profits. Net profits rose by 3.9% qoq to IDR1.1tn in 1Q19 thanks to: a) higher revenues (+4.0% qoq) and b) lower operating expenses (-53.4% qoq) mainly due to significant declines in general & administration expenses. As the company booked higher COGS, its gross margin went down to 33.3% in 1Q19 (4Q18: 36.6%), but its operating margin climbed to 26.6% in 1Q19 from 21.6% in 4Q18. Lower revenues and higher costs dragged down the yearly net profits. On a yearly comparison, net profits were down by 21.6% yoy in 1Q19, reflecting: a) 7.2% qoq lower revenues, which we believe owed to lower ASP given the impact of weak coal prices, and b) 12.4% yoy higher COGS. Nonetheless, 34.0% yoy lower operating expenses - mainly from lower selling expenses and a lower tax rate of 25.4% in 1Q19 (1Q18: 29.1%) helped to cushion the decline in net profits. The result is slightly below our expectation (22% of our FY forecast). Expect an increase in coal production in 2019. The company expects an increase in coal production to around 27.3mn tons (+3.4% yoy) in 2019. This will be supported by greater railway capacity, which is targeted to increase further by 9.5% yoy to 25.3mn tons at the end of 2019. Going forward, with KAI planning to further increase its railway capacity to 30mn tons by 2020, we believe that the company can further increase its coal production. Maintain BUY with a target price of IDR5,200 (based on DCF valuation with WACC of 12.7% and long-term growth of 3.0%). We expect higher earnings in 2019 despite expected consolidation in the coal price owing to higher production and a greater contribution of higher calorific value coal in the product mix. Our new target price implies 10.9x 2019F PE.
Last price (IDR) 4,050
Target Price (IDR) 5,200
Upside/Downside +28.4%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 5,400
Stock Statistics
Sector Coal Mining
Bloomberg Ticker PTBA IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 10,871
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 44,026/3,127
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 101.3/7.2
Major shareholders (%)
Indonesia Asahan Aluminium 65.0
Estimated Free Float 26.5
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2019F 2020F 2021F
Danareksa 474.8 489.5 505.4
Consensus 429.2 442.0 476.0
Danareksa/Cons 10.6 10.7 6.2
PTBA relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
x Stefanus Darmagiri
(62-21) 29 555 831
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
Revenue (IDRbn) 19,471 21,167 23,085 24,983 27,260 EBITDA (IDRbn) 6,569 6,837 7,022 6,856 7,098 EBITDA Growth (%) 128.4 4.1 2.7 (2.4) 3.5 Net profit (IDRbn) 4,476 5,024 5,161 5,321 5,494 EPS (IDR) 411.8 462.2 474.8 489.5 505.4 EPS growth (%) 123.1 12.2 2.7 3.1 3.3 BVPS (IDR) 1,251.8 1,473.2 1,601.4 1,853.5 2,114.2 DPS (IDR) 55.4 308.8 346.6 237.4 244.7 PER (x) 9.8 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.0 PBV (x) 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.9 Dividend yield (%) 1.4 7.6 8.6 5.9 6.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.2
Source : PTBA, Danareksa Estimates
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
SECTOR
Retail minimarts enjoy digital wallet boom
Retail minimarts are enjoying a digital wallet boom, as the segment gets promotions from platforms such as Go-Pay, Ovo, and LinkAja to name but a few. Family Mart’s management indicated double-digit growth in the number
of consumers utilizing the services. Alfamart (AMRT) has also benefitted, with strong SSSG in January and February at 9.4% and 11.1% respectively, up from 8.4% in 4Q18. AMRT plans to open around 500 new stores in FY19.
(Bisinis Indonesia and Company)
CORPORATE
BTN mulls possible acquisition of Jiwasraya PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN IJ, BUY, TP IDR3,000) is currently assessing its acquisition plans for Asuransi
Jiwasraya. BBTN’s management has already hired an external consultant to undertake the assessment and expects it to be done in 1H19. (Kontan)
DMAS targets 50% net profits growth Puradelta Lestari (DMAS) is targeting a 50% increase in net profits in 2019 in line with the growth in industrial land
sales. The revenues growth target is set at 20% this year. This optimism reflects the fact that the company has already booked marketing sales of IDR 914 billion, or equal to 73% of its FY19 target of IDR 1.25 trillion. The
company will distribute a total of IDR 1.01 trillion as dividends or equivalent to IDR 21/share. (BI)
XL Axiata to upgrade its transport OTN network in Sumatra
It was announced on April 23, that XL Axiata will be supplied with Infinera XTC’s platform. XL will use the platform to upgrade its terrestrial fiber network in South Sumatra as well as its capacity in the B2JS (Jakarta-Bangka-Batam-
Singapore) submarine network that connects Jakarta and Singapore. Infinera’s solution for this subsea and terrestrial network upgrade enables the delivery of cloud-scale capacity with the benefit of intelligent Optical Transport
Network (OTN) switching to enable XL to keep pace with growing bandwidth demand especially in 5G.
(telecompaper)
MARKET NEWS
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
DANAREKSA VALUATION
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019
Danareksa Universe 4.113.074 214.144 237.219 238,6 264,3 25,8% 10,8% 19,2 17,3 19,7 18,2 3,5 3,1 19,0 19,1
Auto 309.699 19.727 21.517 396,7 432,7 4,5% 9,1% 15,7 14,4 11,7 10,7 2,3 2,1 15,3 15,4
Astra International ASII BUY 7.650 9.500 309.699 19.727 21.517 487 532 488 522 4,5% 9,1% 15,7 14,4 11,7 10,7 2,3 2,1 15,3 15,4
Banks 1.321.718 69.238 76.989 688,5 765,6 14,3% 11,2% 19,1 17,2 2,8 2,5 15,7 15,6
BCA BBCA HOLD 28.150 28.000 694.039 26.269 29.738 1.065 1.206 1.065 1.206 12,6% 13,2% 26,4 23,3 N/A N/A 4,5 3,9 18,5 17,9
BNI BBNI BUY 9.800 10.500 182.757 15.015 16.763 805 899 805 899 10,3% 11,6% 12,2 10,9 N/A N/A 1,7 1,5 14,5 14,6
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 2.630 3.600 27.852 3.490 3.794 330 358 330 358 15,4% 8,5% 8,0 7,3 N/A N/A 1,1 1,0 15,1 14,6
Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 7.675 8.700 358.167 24.463 26.694 524 572 524 572 18,5% 9,1% 14,6 13,4 N/A N/A 2,0 1,8 14,1 14,2
BTPN BTPN HOLD 3.700 3.800 30.145 1.723 2.011 300 350 300 350 41,1% 16,7% 12,3 10,6 N/A N/A 1,7 1,6 10,1 10,9
BTPS BTPS BUY 2.400 2.400 18.489 965 1.197 130 155 130 155 34,3% 19,7% 18,5 15,4 N/A N/A 4,6 3,6 30,9 26,1
BPD Jatim BJTM BUY 685 850 10.270 1.259 1.350 84 90 84 90 8,6% 6,7% 8,1 7,6 N/A N/A 1,2 1,1 15,5 15,5
Cigarettes 554.079 21.749 24.066 184 204 6,5% 10,7% 25,5 23,0 17,5 15,9 6,6 6,0 27,2 27,5
Gudang Garam GGRM BUY 78.800 101.000 151.618 8.282 9.133 4.304 4.747 4.304 4.747 6,8% 10,3% 18,3 16,6 11,8 10,8 3,1 2,8 18,3 17,7
HM Sampoerna HMSP BUY 3.460 4.200 402.461 13.468 14.933 116 128 116 128 6,3% 10,9% 29,9 27,0 22,0 19,7 11,5 10,9 38,9 41,5
Construction 133.493 11.919 14.048 160 188 12,5% 17,9% 11,2 9,5 8,5 7,64 1,7 1,5 16,1 16,5
Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 2.420 2.200 21.707 1.588 2.108 177 235 177 235 32,0% 32,7% 13,7 10,3 5,7 4,5 1,6 1,4 11,9 14,2
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY 2.460 2.700 15.252 1.741 2.140 281 345 281 345 19,8% 22,9% 8,8 7,1 4,8 4,1 1,2 1,0 14,2 15,2
Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 1.790 2.150 6.374 753 920 212 258 212 258 46,1% 22,2% 8,5 6,9 6,2 5,5 0,9 0,7 11,6 11,6
Waskita Karya WSKT BUY 2.160 2.400 29.320 4.369 5.038 322 371 322 371 13,3% 15,3% 6,7 5,8 8,1 7,1 1,7 1,3 27,6 25,5
Waskita Beton WSBP BUY 448 600 11.810 1.302 1.524 53 62 53 62 37,5% 17,0% 8,4 7,2 6,9 6,1 1,5 1,4 17,2 18,4
Wika Beton WTON BUY 650 480 5.665 423 493 51 59 51 59 25,5% 16,6% 12,8 11,0 7,6 6,7 1,8 1,6 14,5 15,2
Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 5.975 5.400 43.366 1.742 1.825 240 251 240 251 -20,8% 4,8% 24,9 23,8 15,0 15,2 2,7 2,5 11,1 10,8
Consumer 674.418 18.181 19.952 272 298 9,0% 9,7% 37,1 33,8 20,9 19,2 9,4 8,6 26,6 26,6
Indofood CBP ICBP HOLD 9.200 11.000 107.290 4.175 4.466 358 383 358 383 10,0% 7,0% 25,7 24,0 15,2 14,3 4,9 4,4 20,2 19,4
Indofood INDF BUY 6.350 8.200 55.756 4.493 4.968 512 566 510 548 7,8% 10,6% 12,4 11,2 5,8 5,3 1,7 1,5 13,9 14,2
Unilever UNVR SELL 49.250 38.900 375.778 7.673 8.484 1.006 1.112 1.006 1.112 9,5% 10,6% 49,0 44,3 34,2 30,9 67,6 62,6 143,0 146,8
Kino Indonesia KINO HOLD 2.650 2.800 3.786 93 142 65 99 65 99 -16,1% 53,3% 40,9 26,7 17,1 12,8 1,8 1,7 4,5 6,6
Mayora Indah MYOR HOLD 2.520 2.730 56.344 1.747 1.892 78 85 76 85 9,5% 8,3% 32,3 29,8 17,6 16,1 6,7 5,8 22,4 21,0
Sido Muncul SIDO BUY 995 1.000 14.925 680 805 46 54 46 54 27,5% 18,3% 21,8 18,4 19,0 15,8 4,9 4,7 23,0 25,8
Healthcare 87.308 2.806 3.083 102 121 -7,0% 18,5% 31,1 28,3 19,8 17,7 5,0 4,5 16,8 16,6
Kalbe Farma KLBF HOLD 1.500 1.400 70.313 2.538 2.733 54 58 54 58 5,6% 7,7% 27,7 25,7 17,5 16,3 4,7 4,2 18,0 17,4
Kimia Farma KAEF SELL 3.060 2.310 16.995 268 350 48 63 48 63 -18,0% 30,8% 63,4 48,5 36,2 25,6 6,3 5,6 10,2 12,2
Heavy Equipment 101.460 8.783 9.714 2.355 2.604 18,6% 10,6% 11,6 10,4 4,8 4,2 2,1 1,8 18,9 18,6
United Tractors UNTR BUY 27.200 43.000 101.460 8.783 9.714 2.355 2.604 2.355 2.604 18,6% 10,6% 11,6 10,4 4,8 4,2 2,1 1,8 18,9 18,6
Industrial Estate 18.846 1.052 1.237 17 20 -54,6% 17,6% 17,9 15,2 11,5 10,2 1,2 1,2 7,0 7,9
Puradelta Lestari DMAS BUY 266 240 12.821 645 594 13 12 13 12 -1,8% -7,9% 19,9 21,6 17,3 18,2 1,8 1,7 9,1 8,1
Bekasi Fajar BEST BUY 310 300 2.991 498 581 52 60 52 60 3,0% 16,6% 6,0 5,2 6,1 5,5 0,7 0,6 12,2 12,7
Surya Semesta SSIA HOLD 645 540 3.035 (91) 62 (19) 13 (19) 13 -107,7% 168,5% (33,4) 48,7 10,3 7,2 0,8 0,8 (2,4) 1,7
Media 36.699 3.551 3.919 123 136 27,5% 10,4% 10,3 9,4 6,8 6,1 2,5 2,1 25,5 24,5
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN BUY 850 1.450 12.135 1.960 2.158 137 151 137 151 34,9% 10,1% 6,2 5,6 4,3 3,9 1,2 1,0 20,3 19,7
Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 1.680 2.350 24.564 1.591 1.761 107 119 107 119 19,5% 10,7% 15,6 14,1 10,4 9,2 5,3 4,5 37,4 35,0
Mining 178.188 18.825 19.111 212 215 24,1% 1,5% 9,5 9,3 4,2 4,1 1,4 1,3 14,7 14,1
Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 1.305 2.000 41.742 7.376 6.806 231 213 231 213 17,4% -7,7% 5,7 6,1 2,2 2,1 0,9 0,9 16,0 14,2
Timah TINS BUY 1.395 900 10.390 603 689 81 93 81 93 19,9% 14,4% 17,2 15,1 7,8 7,0 1,6 1,5 9,6 10,2
Vale Indonesia INCO BUY 3.200 4.700 31.796 1.117 1.708 112 172 112 172 -662,5% 53,0% 28,5 18,6 9,0 7,1 1,3 1,3 4,7 7,1
Aneka Tambang ANTM HOLD 890 1.000 21.387 428 501 18 21 18 21 213,7% 17,0% 50,0 42,7 12,6 12,4 1,1 1,1 2,3 2,6
Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 4.050 5.400 46.659 4.735 5.028 436 463 436 463 5,8% 6,2% 9,3 8,8 6,1 5,9 2,8 2,3 31,2 27,2
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 20.125 30.000 22.740 3.903 3.669 3.455 3.247 3.455 3.247 15,3% -6,0% 5,8 6,2 2,6 2,9 1,6 1,5 28,9 24,9
Harum Energy HRUM HOLD 1.285 2.000 3.474 663 709 245 262 245 262 12,7% 6,9% 5,2 4,9 0,6- 0,9- 0,8 0,8 15,8 16,1
Plantation 34.916 2.811 3.094 264 291 -8,2% 10,1% 12,4 11,3 6,6 5,1 1,1 1,0 9,1 9,4
Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 11.875 16.500 22.856 1.639 1.874 851 973 851 973 -18,5% 14,3% 13,9 12,2 6,9 6,0 1,2 1,1 8,8 9,5
Sampoerna Agro SGRO BUY 2.320 3.000 4.385 346 406 191 223 191 223 20,4% 17,1% 12,2 10,4 7,0 3,9 1,1 1,0 8,7 9,4
PP London Sumatra LSIP BUY 1.125 2.000 7.676 826 815 121 119 121 119 8,2% -1,4% 9,3 9,4 5,0 3,7 0,9 0,8 9,9 9,2
Poultry 122.693 5.847 6.722 39 45 65,0% 15,0% 21,0 18,3 12,4 11,0 4,0 3,5 20,3 20,3
Charoen Pokphand CPIN SELL 6.050 5.700 99.208 3.987 4.636 208 283 208 283 32,2% 36,1% 29,1 21,4 15,5 13,6 5,3 4,6 23,3 23,1
Japfa Comfeed JPFA HOLD 1.765 2.950 20.697 1.739 1.947 152 171 152 171 74,4% 12,0% 11,6 10,3 7,3 6,5 2,0 1,7 17,6 17,3
Malindo Feedmill MAIN HOLD 1.245 1.150 2.787 121 139 54 62 54 62 147,7% 14,7% 23,0 20,1 9,0 8,4 1,5 1,5 6,9 7,5
Property 109.575 8.327 7.912 69 66 -11,7% -5,0% 13,2 13,8 9,6 9,5 1,5 1,4 12,3 10,5
Alam Sutera ASRI HOLD 352 340 6.917 1.605 1.576 82 80 83 80 16,3% -1,8% 4,3 4,4 5,9 5,9 0,7 0,6 17,5 15,0
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1.460 1.930 28.100 2.842 2.126 148 110 147 110 -42,2% -25,2% 9,9 13,2 7,7 9,1 1,0 0,9 10,7 7,4
Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 1.220 1.220 22.644 1.171 1.216 63 66 63 66 30,9% 3,9% 19,3 18,6 12,9 11,9 1,6 1,5 8,4 8,1
Pakuw on Jati PWON BUY 720 710 34.675 2.327 2.652 48 55 49 55 24,2% 14,0% 14,9 13,1 10,1 8,7 2,8 2,4 20,5 19,5
Summarecon SMRA BUY 1.195 1.000 17.240 383 343 27 24 27 24 5,8% -10,5% 45,0 50,3 13,4 13,4 2,5 2,4 5,7 4,9
Retail 74.287 3.556 4.337 69 85 62,9% 22,0% 20,9 17,1 11,8 9,4 4,7 4,2 23,3 25,8
Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI BUY 960 1.050 15.936 874 824 528 498 528 498 161,0% -5,7% 1,8 1,9 8,5 7,2 3,6 3,1 20,0 17,1
Ramayana RALS HOLD 1.765 1.800 12.524 452 497 66 73 66 73 11,2% 9,9% 26,6 24,2 19,2 17,6 3,3 3,1 12,5 12,8
Matahari Department Store LPPF BUY 3.890 1.100 11.351 2.037 2.150 698 737 698 737 6,8% 5,6% 5,6 5,3 3,2 2,8 3,7 3,0 75,9 63,0
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA SELL 206 200 1.551 (760) (188) (141) (35) (141) (35) -38,9% 75,3% (1,5) (5,9) 5,9- 13,9 3,7 6,9 (95,7) (58,7)
Ace Hardw are ACES BUY 1.625 1.600 27.869 953 1.053 56 62 56 62 22,5% 10,6% 29,1 26,3 22,8 20,3 6,8 6,0 25,1 24,1
Erajaya Sw asembada ERAA BUY 1.585 4.000 5.056 634 711 219 245 219 245 86,7% 12,1% 7,3 6,5 4,1 3,8 1,2 1,0 15,9 15,6
Telco 479.702 24.128 28.520 141 167 -14,1% 18,2% 19,9 16,8 6,0 5,4 3,4 3,1 17,1 19,2
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM BUY 3.850 4.300 381.390 20.783 23.624 206 234 206 234 -6,2% 13,7% 18,7 16,4 6,1 5,5 3,9 3,6 21,9 23,4
Indosat ISAT HOLD 2.620 3.100 14.237 (360) 73 (66) 13 (67) 13 -131,7% 120,2% (39,6) 195,8 3,2 2,6 1,1 1,1 (2,7) 0,6
XL Axiata EXCL BUY 2.930 3.800 31.316 450 1.031 42 96 66 96 19,8% 129,3% 69,7 30,4 5,1 4,5 1,4 1,4 2,1 4,6
Tow er Bersama TBIG BUY 3.650 4.500 16.540 938 1.154 215 265 215 265 -59,5% 23,1% 17,0 13,8 10,2 9,4 5,6 4,8 30,5 35,9
Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 710 810 36.220 2.297 2.618 45 51 45 51 9,4% 13,9% 15,8 13,8 8,8 7,9 4,4 3,8 30,0 29,7
PER (x)
Equity
Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth ROE EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
LEADERS Price as on Code 23-Apr-19 22-Apr-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Erajaya Swasembada ERAA 1.585 1.495 6,0 (2,8) (20,4) (28,0) BUY
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 850 805 5,6 7,6 7,6 23,2 BUY
Bekasi Fajar BEST 310 294 5,4 11,5 27,0 49,0 BUY
XL Axiata EXCL 2.930 2.800 4,6 3,9 8,5 48,0 BUY
Timah TINS 1.395 1.335 4,5 5,7 7,7 84,8 BUY
United Tractors UNTR 27.200 26.075 4,3 6,1 (2,9) (0,5) BUY
Semen Indonesia SMGR 13.725 13.175 4,2 5,6 0,4 19,3 BUY
Aneka Tambang ANTM 890 855 4,1 1,1 (7,3) 16,3 HOLD
Wika Beton WTON 650 625 4,0 7,4 13,0 72,9 BUY
Gudang Garam GGRM 78.800 76.400 3,1 1,6 (8,3) (5,8) BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on Code 23-Apr-19 22-Apr-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Semen Baturaja SMBR 995 1.070 (7,0) (15,0) (28,4) (43,1) SELL
Indosat ISAT 2.620 2.700 (3,0) (4,0) (6,8) 55,5 HOLD
Ace Hardware ACES 1.625 1.660 (2,1) (8,5) (11,7) 9,1 BUY
Kimia Farma KAEF 3.060 3.100 (1,3) (14,5) (8,9) 17,7 SELL
Bank Mandiri BMRI 7.675 7.750 (1,0) 4,8 3,0 4,1 BUY
Surya Citra Media SCMA 1.680 1.695 (0,9) (2,9) (3,7) (10,2) BUY
Indocement INTP 21.175 21.250 (0,4) 0,4 0,6 14,8 HOLD
Tower Bersama TBIG 3.650 3.660 (0,3) (3,9) (13,1) 1,4 BUY
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 4.430 4.440 (0,2) 2,8 9,1 21,0 BUY
Jasa Marga JSMR 5.975 5.975 - (0,4) 12,2 39,6 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ Garuda Maintenance Facility: Growth strategy to support future earnings, Perusahaan Gas Negara: Sector
restructuring to Unlock PGN volume growth SnapShot20190423 ▪ Alam Sutra Realty: Cheap valuation with better earnings prospect SnapShot20190422
▪ Strategy: The Big Day: Jokowi Leads in Quick Counts, Automotive: Impressive Domestic Car Sales in Mar 2019, Kino Indonesia: Enticing turnaround story SnapShot20190418
▪ Strategy: Progression Continues SnapShot20190416
▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Greater clarity, BPD Jatim: Picking up the momentum SnapShot20190412 ▪ Vale Indonesia: Set to recover SnapShot20190411
▪ Ciputra Development: Attractive Valuations Despite Earnings Volatility SnapShot20190410 ▪ Cigarette: Higher margins, improved earnings growth, HM Sampoerna: Margin boost, Gudang Garam: Solid
growth but airport risk SnapShot20190408
▪ Semen Indonesia (Persero): Year of consolidation SnapShot20190405 ▪ Poultry: Will this year mimic 2017?, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Steady growth despite a difficult first half,
Pembangunan Perumahan: Growing moderately SnapShot20190404
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
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Equity Research Team S
Sales team
Maria Renata
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3513 Construction
Stefanus Darmagiri
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3530
Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal
Natalia Sutanto
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508
Consumer, Tobacco, Property
Niko Margaronis
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Telco, Tower
Helmy Kristanto
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3500
Head of Research, Strategy
Eka Savitri
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3506 Banking
Victor Stefano
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3503 Poultry, Property
Ehrliech Suhartono
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3132
Laksmita Armandani
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3125
Vera Ongyono
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3120
Tuty Sutopo
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3121
Wisnu Budhiargo
(62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3117
Upik Yuzarni
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3137
Rendy Ben Philips
(62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3148
Thalia Kadharusman
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3124
Adeline Solaiman
(62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3503
Ignatius Teguh Prayoga
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3511 Media, Research Associate
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
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