webinar presentation markers: med basin, persian gulf ......cement and clinker price markers: med...
TRANSCRIPT
Cement and Clinker Price
Markers: Med Basin, Persian
Gulf-Arabian Sea and East
Africa
2020 World Cement, Clinker &
Slag Sea-Based Trade
Webinar presentation
CW Group LLC | T: +1-702-866-9474 | F: +1-928-832-4762 | Connecticut, USA
April 9, 2020
Client Confidential Information
Agenda
▪ Introduction to CW Group
▪ Cementitious Materials Sea-Based Trade
2020 highlights
− Overview and methodology
− Macroeconomic overview
− Market overview
− Market outlook
− Closing remarks
2
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Presenters
3
▪ Responsible for providing qualitative and quantitative analysis for
CW Research. Manages BD for research and consulting projects
in Middle East, Asia, and Africa.
▪ Bachelor’s Degree in International Business and Economics from
Saint Peter’s University, New Jersey, US and a Master of Science
degree in International Business from Seton Hall University, New
Jersey, USA
Carolina PereiraManager, Advisory and
Research
M:+351 917 314 391
▪ Responsible for the qualitative and quantitative analysis for CW
Research's price and volume assessments in the building
material and heavy industrial sectors. Leads the Porto office.
▪ Degree in Management from Coimbra Business School, Portugal
Juliana VieiraBusiness Analyst
M:+351 918 285 753
▪ Executes quantitative analysis for CW Research's price and
volume assessments in the building material and heavy industrial
sectors. Experience in Cement industry.
▪ Degree in International Relations from ESPM, Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil
Prashant SinghAssociate Director
M:+91 887 960 7047
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4
About the CW Group
CEMENT, BUILDING
MATERIALS &
CONSTRUCTION
STEEL, METALS &
MINING
CHEMICALS DRY BULK CARGO,
PORTS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
POWER, ENERGY
AND SOLID FUELS
Seasoned expertsBusiness &
technicalNetwork & access Proprietary data
STRATEGY AND M&A
ADVISORYBUSINESS DECISION
SUPPORTMEDIA & MEETINGS
Strategic advisory
Management consulting
M&A advice
Transaction support
Due diligence
Syndicated market /
industry study reports
Reference forecasts
Data and chart-books
Commodity price
assessments
Market reporting services
Newsletters
Online data access
Publications
Meetings
Advisory Research Media
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5
Cementitious Materials Sea-Based Trade:
2020 update highlights
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What does it include
6
▪ CW Research’s “World cement, clinker & slag sea-
based trade” report provides an in-depth and data-
oriented analysis of seaborne cement, clinker,
slag (GBFS) and fly-ash trade
▪ Trade flows, pricing, trading infrastructure
required for this specialized dry bulk cargo shipping
sector are detailed, while providing a comprehensive
review of terminals, suppliers of cementitious
materials to support strategic decisions buy buyers,
sellers and shippers alike.
▪ The report also projects key gray cement, white
cement, ,slag, fly ash and clinker supply demand
gaps that will sustain world cement trading in for
the next few years.
▪ Key exporters of cementitious materials, their
facilities, and traders are profiled, as well as key
ocean-going cement carrier operations and their
vessels.
For a complete listing of focus countries as well as more details visit:
https://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/287-world-
cement,-clinker-slag-sea-based-trade-forecast-through-2024
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Methodology
7
For a complete listing of focus countries as well as more details visit
https://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/287-world-
cement,-clinker-slag-sea-based-trade-forecast-through-2024
Country-to-country trade
volumes matrices for each
cementitious material
CW directory of terminals and
plants- updated to 2020
Directory of waterside
terminals, grinding units and
plants by region, country and
company
Mapping of all currently
operating trading facilities,
including waterside plants and
cement and slag grinding units
CW directory of cement
carriers
Analysis and mapping of
cement carriers by age and
dead weight tonnage
Ports and customs
cementitious volumes analysis
Current and historic
cementitious sea-trade volume
by route and type of packing
CW forecasts:
o Gray cement production,
utilization rates,
consumption
o White cement production,
utilization rates,
consumption
o Global cementitious trade
forecast
o Steel production forecast
o Coal combustion forecast
Cementitious sea-based trade
forecast by route
Integrated analysis of sea-
based cementitious trade
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8
Macroeconomic overview
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The glut of dismal economic statistics has forced the IMF to revise its
forecasts multiple times in the past few months. Is that enough?
World Economic Outlook (% GDP)
Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
China
Russia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan,and Pakistan
Latin America and the Caribbean
Emerging and developing Asia
Emerging and developing Europe
2020E 2019
▪ The coronavirus pandemic has
created havoc in the global
economy since mid January
▪ Growth forecasts now predict a
global recession
▪ Some estimates say that the
Chinese economy itself may not
grow or even contract
▪ Commodity export markets will
likely bear the hit with the global
slowdown
▪ A contraction in the US economy
is now viewed as possible
▪ Collapse of oil prices has changed
the economic dynamics of OPEC
and other oil producers
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The explosion of COVID-19 pandemic has taken the world by
storm, its impact is still unfolding at this moment…
10
Source: CW Research, GRN data base
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The BDI index received a severe jolt in February as the impact of
Covid-19 spread globally, but showing signs of recovery
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Source: Bloomberg, CW Research
Baltic Dry Index
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
• The BDI fell to a multi-year low in February 2020 with massive lockdowns crippling trading activity.
• Since then, especially with China reopening, demand sentiment has received a boost with some
players taking advantage of the low rates to book shipping charters
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12
Market overview
Client Confidential Information
Out of the total global cementitious materials demand, less than 2
percent is traded…
13
Global consumption of cementitious products
Sources: CW Research
2015 2017 2019 2020E
Gray Cement Clinker White Cement Fly Ash Slag
CAGR
‘15-’20E-2% -2% 1% 1% 2%
Overall
CAGR:
-1%
▪ Prior to the coronavirus
outbreak, demand growth
had been expected for all
cementitious segments
based on a positive outlook
for the global economy in
2020
▪ With construction activity
globally at a standstill,
demand for cement and
clinker is expected to suffer a
decline
▪ For some regions, especially
Latin America, it may take
longer to return to 2019
levels, as the economic
outlook for the region had
been a cause for concern
even prior to the pandemic
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14
… out of the total cementitious trade volume, an estimated 80
percent is traded by sea
Total traded volume of cementitious materials by sea
Sources: CW Research
2015 2017 2019 2020E
Gray Cement Clinker Slag White Cement Fly Ash
CAGR
‘15-’20E-3% 2% 1% 3% 2%
Overall
CAGR:
-0.2%
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Modern terminals are witnessing a paradigm shift towards state-
of-the-art infrastructure
15
Trade facilities overview
Sources: CW Research
MedCem Marine Hub, Turkey
▪ The port supports export business and helps
deliver key raw materials and fuel to the plant.
▪ Modern storage and handling technology ensures
efficient, high-capacity loading operations at the
terminal.
Jurong Port’s cement terminal, Singapore
▪ Common user cement terminal, handling more
than 90% of Singapore’s bulk cement imports.
▪ Sited on a compact 5.3ha plot, the terminal has an
annual handling capacity of over 7.5 million tons
and has state of the art infrastructure.
Beton Provincial’s terminal, Québec Canada
▪ Single-user cement terminal with a storage capacity of
180,000 tons.
▪ Receives cement from two suppliers in the
Mediterranean in Supramax vessels, a third domestic
supply by self-discharging cement carriers, as well as
GGBS and fly ash.
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In 2020, inter-Asia Pacific cementitious trade are expected to
make for almost half of the total seaborne trade
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North Africa
West C
oast U
S
Western Europe
and Baltics
3.5
5.3
0.5
0.7
0.6
3.5
13.7
78.9
Asia Pacific
18.6
22.1
Black Sea and
intra-Med Basin
Middle East
0.5
Main sea trade routes for cementitious products (mn tons, 2020E)
Sources: CW Research
Note:* Includes volumes for the main trade routes, not conclusive for the absolute total
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17
Market outlook
Client Confidential Information
2020E 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Gray Cement Clinker Slag White Cement Fly Ash
Environmental regulations will provide impetus for the growing
share of clinker trade by 2025
41%
18
Cementitious materials outlook by product (mn tons)
Source: CW Research
CAGR
2%
Sources: CW Research
2025F
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Black Sea and intra-Med Basin are expected to witness the fastest
growth rate in terms of export volumes
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Main sea trade routes for cementitious products (mn tons, 2025F)
North Africa
We
st C
oa
st U
S
Western Europe
and Baltics
2.4
8.1
1.6
1.6
0.8
3.2
1.6
84.8
Asia Pacific
14.5
27.5
Black Sea and
intra-Med Basin
Middle East
Great Lakes
15.4
Sources: CW Research
Note:* Includes volumes for the main trade routes, not conclusive for the absolute total
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Closing remarks
▪ Economic growth is no longer a guarantee as the macroeconomic scenario globally becomes grimmer
▪ Major markets including China, US, and several European countries could see double-digit declines
▪ Total cementitious trade demand is expected to decline almost 9 percent this year due to a decline in demand in all major markets and travel and trading restrictions
▪ Environmental pressures regarding clinker production in major markets (e.g. China), will continue to drive the trade of clinker
▪ Stay at home and stay safe!
20
About CW ResearchCW Research is a leader in syndicated and data-driven market research solutions. The company offers independent
perspectives on multiple industrial market segments(e.g., cement, metals & minerals, and specialty chemicals) and
deep functional expertise in market intelligence, sourcing intelligence, commodity pricing intelligence.
CW Research also provides custom industry and competitive research programs for operating companies, financial
analysts, consultants, governments, suppliers and many others as well as tailored studies together with CW Advisory.
For more information: research.cwgrp.com.
Contacts
CW Group LLCPO Box 5263, Greenwich,
CT 06831 USA
T: +1-702-866-9474
F: +1-928-832-4762
www.cwgrp.com
Prashant Singh
Associate Director
Carolina Pereira
Manager, Advisory &
Research
Juliana Vieira
Business Analyst