Arsenal

- Do we have to?

As a fan I could go on a rant here, but for me I think the key fact is I don’t think I ever had that moment of epiphany with Emery where I thought “Yeah, I see what you’re trying to do here Unai”.

Very much a case of making do with the oddball side that he inherited, with elements of pragmatism to field *a* team of any kind most weeks.

Decisions like Ozil on the wing or Guendouzi being charged with a creative role, though, perhaps belie how that pragmatism was over outweighed by a lack of options, leading to square peg, round hole and a lot of sub par performances.

Good start v new BUR, so may be being “overlooked” to use a horrid phrase. But I’m happy to just forget all about us til wildcard one sort of time; gw5-16 where we only play Man United (7) along that run that takes in home matches against the likes of Villa, Bournemouth and Brighton.

Things did start brightly, let’s not forget, with a 20+ game unbeaten run – but the utter collapse at the end of the season alongside capitulation v Chelsea in the UEL left both a sour taste in mouths and a much lighter feeling in our war chest I think, though it remains to be seen what happens – Saliba good news, who knows what else happens??

73 goals last season, 8 clean sheets, 51 goals conceded. Interestingly, 74 scored last year and 51 again too… just 13 clean sheets v 5, showing how one small stat can frame things.

3rd for goals scored, but strikingly mid table on clean sheets and goals conceded

51 conceded last year as well, after spending much of the mid 2010s averaging about 40.

Away record especially abysmal, 1.84 goals per game conceded away to just 0.84 at home. Rare example of a top 6 team conceding more than they scored on the road.

Clean sheets the real worry – kept a nice round 100 from 2012-13 to 2017-18, an average of 14 per season. Down to 8 is awful. Tellingly, we conceded just 4 fewer shots on target than Huddersfield, and more than the likes of Bournemouth, Brighton and Man United. Ouch.

Our defence is lacking leadership and, you know, competence – 13 errors leading to goal was the most in the PL, more than the likes of Fulham (who conceded 30 more than us) and Huddersfield.

Do you know what’s really worrying? That’s actually an IMPROVEMENT on last season, where we made a ridiculous FIFTEEN errors leading to goal.

Defensively we’re lacking determination and concentration – aka marks of quality. Utterly prone to switching off, and we have players who are just appalling like Mustafi, who seems a thoroughly decent chap but not a Premier League defender.

All of this means that if you’re looking to spend anything about 4.5m for Stuart Holding for an Arsenal defender, as we know it now, forget it.

Who were the key culprits for this?

Leno – 5 errors leading to goal last season. Likes of Mustafi, Licthsteiner and Kolasinac all “only” made 1. Leno the ideal “heir to Cech”, who made 6 errors leading to goal the season before last.

Worryingly, Cech and Leno are numbers 1 and 2 in the goalkeepers making errors leading to goal stat since FFS data begins in 2011/12, with Asmir Begovic’s consistent failures (5/5) joint on the podium.

The poorness of our backline is showed in Leno’s data from last season – he had to make a save more often than the likes of Mat Ryan, and though he had a similar save % to Fabianski I just can’t recommend Leno even at 5.0

Ditto the whole Arsenal defence, who would mostly be chucked in a burning skip even if all 4.5m.

Honorable exceptions:

Kolasinac one that many of us fell for due to the GW35 DGW, but my lord what a nightmare, from scoring a last minute own goal when on double figures, to having less crosses than the likes of Matt Lowton and Gaetan Bong.

Availability heuristic? Did have a xGI I guess in his favour – just outside of the top ten, achieving the 5.06 he was expected to get – but an xG of just 0.39 and an xA of 4.67. He did create 10 big chances though – same as 6.0 Luiz and 6.0 Pereira, and more than the likes of Trippier and Doc. At 5.5m it’s very much a wait and see though.

Kieran Tierney might be of interest if he comes in at 5.5m – average of 6 assists per season in the SPL, could he be one that eventually garners interest?

Stuart Holding, get the feeling if he was fit last season things may be different, competent defender with potential at 4.5m, which might on paper be a good buy – especially as we have good fixtures from 5-16. Wildcard one fodder.

Ainsley Maitland Niles – 5.0, potential OOP in the midfield but named as a defender once more, Adam Pritchard is very pro, but again it’s a case of potential

But the one I really like is fashionista, arch vegan and perpetual mob annoyer Hector Bellerin, again for that period when we have decent games.

Despite only playing around 17 games worth of minutes last season, HB contributed 5 assists and had a higher xG than Kolasinac for an xGI of around 3.4 – the same at the likes of Duffy and fellow 5.5m Jonny (LOL).

Past 3 seasons he’s averaged 141 points per year, and is generally good for about 5 assists – back in 2015/16, for example, he created more big chances (9) than any other defender and operated basically as an auxiliary winger, he was also 2nd for BCC in 2017/18 with 10.

Midfield: unless we make a signing, fuhget abaht it if you’re looking for attacking returns consistently. Depressing that Alex Iwobi with 99 was our top scoring midfielder last year. Can’t believe we spend upwards of £500k a week on Ozil, Mkhi and Stafi.

Mkhi and Ozil are inconsistent, mercurial players who just don’t seem to fit the system for Emery, though they may have their moments – OFPL seems to have some sort of weird bet to highlight Mkhitaryan yearly

I rate Torreira and Guendouzi in a football sense, and having glimpsed a possible Douzi future in a football manager save he does have the potential to grow – also heard from the man himself through my network (someone was on holiday and spoke to him! Directly!) that he expects to play

more next season… comes to something when the only recommendation I can make from our midfield is a 4.5.

Zaha link exciting. Happy to have him, or Fraser tbh. Ongoing saga – Palace signed new deal with him to drive up price assuming we’d get UCL? Who knows. Hope it happens.

Ceballos a mini Santi – would do the Andre Gomes role maybe for us.

Strikers…

Auba v Laca

Laca as a complete forward fits Emery’s system more than Auba does.

Big backer of Auba last year, and he does have that uncanny positioning ability – always in the right positions and that’s reassuring.

Issue is his finishing is diabolical, a far cry from his 10 goal h2 2017/18 heroics when he looked like THE MAN for years to come.

Last season though, twin factors of Emery tinkering (posting on left wing, not playing) plus inconsistent finishing meant that despite decent examples (e.g. brace off bench x2 that our friend Falal got, and the Auba g+a TC Neil Murray got) he was never one that fully regained my trust in the qualitative netherworld of captaincy.

I did have a look though to challenge my distrust, and rediscovered that immense xGI for Auba – 26.65, 10 more than Lacazette. And he achieved that, with 22 goals and 5 assists – he didn’t also overshoot his xG too far, with 22 goals from 23.1 expected, which is actually good.

This is a curiousity in of itself, though – he overshot his xG to begin with (fuelled by those 2 bracess of the bench) and undershot to the end. However, I’m not going to go into that too much – creates a ”how long is a piece of string” argument – though might be a case, maybe, to get hm in early? +3.22 H1 (16 GIs v only 12.78 expected) // -.287xGI H” (11 GIs v 13.87 xGI).

Also 4th for SiB among strikers with 75, pretty accurate too with 41% of all of his shots on target. Laca only 63 shots in the box in comparison.

23 big chances missed though is pretty insane – 10 more than Laca again.

I just think Auba will always get chances – but the worry is the conversion. 36 big chances, 23 missed is an astonishing 64% miss rate of those high xG moments.

Vardy in comparison – 33 big chances, 17 missed, gives a 51/49 ratio for him scoring to missing when we see those moments we expect a goal.

Laca really is the “beta” to Auba’s “alpha”, good thing he costs 1.5m less. Auba beats him out on xA, xG, shots, narrowly on chances created (33 to 31), big chances created (6 to 8).

Only 5% difference between the talisman score of Auba and Laca… hmm… could settle if you can’t reach Auba, but always a Riker.

TL;DR: signings needed, best option is Guendouzi at 4.5m for day one, which says it all.

Aston Villa

- Things changed when Dean Smith came in, many Villa fans credit his impact on the team as a key conduit to their promotion.

- 701 attempts last season, 343 in box- 86 goals scored, 64 conceded – same as 21st place Milwall and 18th placed Wigan- 1.67 goals per game, 1.31 conceded – they scored more at home (2.16 v 1.33) but worryingly

also conceded more at home (1.52 / 1.08). The richness seems to therefore be in the offence over defence.

After Spurs, 2-5 are actually very good, and comprise 3 home games BOU EVE WHU

But I am still sceptical

Leaning a bit on Adam Hopcroft here – a lot of turnover of squad, but we’ve been assertively told after Nick caused a scene saying Villa are the new Fulham that they definitely aren’t.

Good points from a football perspective are the blend of purchases, from re-signing those like El Ghazi and Mings, to the signing of young players with potential in targett (Lucy Highnett was absolutely delighted by the fee), shut up Wesley and Konsa.

Trezquet -just today

Huge support of course.

Let’s get into it then, and I’m afraid it’s really W+W

Goalkeeper – we don’t know what the deal is there. Links with Heaton. Steer ended the season, but Nyland injury? Either way, guaranteed to get a lot of saves – and if it’s Heaton that’s very interesting perhaps as he’s a quality keeper (see Burnley)

Defence – looks like ElMohamedy of Hull fame versus Freddie Guilbert for the RB slot (Guilbert could be a serious enabler on Sky, priced at just 4.5m btw)

Elmo perhaps interesting – 100 points threshold hit twice in the past (2013/14 and 2014/15) and good for around 3 assists per season. Capable of playing an advanced role.

Central Defenders – no clue who will play with Mings. Chester? Konsa? Hause? That Engels chap looks very accomplished, formed a good partnership with Karl Marx in the past… but have to see.

Adam Hopcroft again helped with this – says he expects Mings to be the new Marx with Engels, and then Konsa/Hause slotting into a back 3 when needed.

Left back as well, looks like Matt Targett is the one, but again it feels very much a case of needing to see how he fits in with the new side. 2-3 assists and stuff in his past seasons where he’s played over 1000 mins, could be his time to push on.

Midfield where it gets a bit interesting – and if I’m honest I’m leaning a lot on football manager and prospecting the prospects here. Got Villa promoted on last seasons game and finished 6 th and 4th with them in the prem before moving on to RBL, so I know all the players intimately… lol. And we’ve looked into them for PtP

Grealish the talisman. 6.0. 15 goals, 16 assists ever. 6g 7a last season best return ever. Would’e scored 150 points last season over the PPG we calculated in PtP – around the Richarlison.

Created 76 chances last season despite limited game time – bit of an injury worry with JG – and also took 24 shots in the box. I’d think of him as a beta version of James Maddison basically.

120 points of so is what I’m expecting, Adam H has also said he may step up to take pens as the club captain.

Hourihane – bbm with 6 goals and 8 assists last season. Shots from outside the box -67 of his 85 (78%) of his shots came from there. Good on set pieces, and performed 51 key passes last season for team mates from short – also took 22 corners and 11 free kicks. 6.0? Watch and wait.

Jota/McGinn, did the PtPs:

Probably just a case of seeing who emerges.

Up front, void with Tammy Abraham repeating his Smash Da Championship shtick previously seen at Bristol City – 25 goals all in all.

The man filling the Chelsea loanees boots is new signing Wesley, acquired from Club Brugge for 22 mil. Tyrone Mings has given Wesley his stamp of approval, saying that he’s “got his work cut out” keeping up with the muscular Brazilian in training.

Unfortunately, he’s from the Belgian League, so that’s basically the TL;DR of anything else I’ll be able to find. Nonetheless, I might mention that the last number 9 Villa signed from the Belgian league scored 19 goals and got 4 assists in his maiden season in 2012/143 his name was Christian Benteke.

TL;DR – wait and watch.

Bournemouth

Defensively – forget it. Howe has definitely changed tactics versus the big clubs, 14 th place finish in reality perhaps shows their true status.

61 goals conceded in 2017/18, up again to 70 in 2018/19.

Real H/A split again – at home they scored 1.58 goals per hame and conceded 1.32, but away they scored 1.37 and conceded on average a stonking 2.37. Negative GD – 57 goals scored, 70 conceded.

Didn’t concede a drastic number of shots on target - 173, which was 2 more than Man united and 2 less than Southampton, mid table.But do we trust them? No.

Begovic/Boruc/Travers – who knows? Begovic conceded the joint most errors leading to goal alongside Leno.

Centre backs – Ake and Cook not attacking forces, basically a shot every other game. As for FBs, Adam Smith is not the answer – damningly 4.0 sergio Rico made the most crosses with 39 in just 12 apps, so it’s a case of the whatevs really.

Starting strong – first 10 games last season, they won 6, drew 2 and lost 2, and scored in 7 of them.

They had 1 big team in that run. First 10 this year has two, but similar like games including that huge double header with the newly promoted sides.

Is one essential? Most probably.

Midfielders – 2 really we like, Fraser and Brooks

Fraser = lesser talisman, though Wilson won out on proper individual points. Produced 28 big chances last season, 10 more than any other player (haz in 2nd with 18). Also 3rd for chances created with 92, behind Haz on 97 and Maddy on 99.

Overperf? Really hard to judge because of the Wilson combowombo

xA/xG numbers fascinating – he actually didn’t OP too much compared to the x – BUT the jump YoY is quite incredible. More penetrative passing than ever – kp/90?

Either he found his inner Messi or it’s a massive Michu. Time will tell!

Also smashed in an astonishing 271 crosses last season – again, more than any other player.

Solidity of starts a huge plus – well worth the 2.0m rise I’d say on an 181 point haul from 7g 14a.

Worth noting that Wilson and Fraser outdid Messi and Suarez last season for direct partnership with 12 contributions in total.

Starting strong – Fraser created 11 of his 18 big chances in the first 10 games.

Brooks good debut season, was matching the likes of Eriksen and Bilva in the first 10 games for threat. 7g 6a meant he got the rise all the way up to 6.5m, which was a bit disappointing but I guess if he was 6.0 we’d all be taking the punt. Very much on those opening two games I think.

Stanislaus on pens? Could be the threat here too now he’s back fit.

Is Fraser worth the extra 1.0? Probably.

Let’s look at the strikers then. Not Solanke. Don’t get him, must be good in training – not sure why he was fielded over Calvert Lewin by Boothroyd in U21s. Mousset pushed out – joining Sheff Utd, 5.0m… anyway…

Wilson 8.0, King 6.5. Helluva price differential.

Talisman theory, sloppy seconds analysis: Fraser is the Riker to Wilson’s Picard, not Josh King. In fact, the difference was quite stark between the two English strikers, as King scored 72 individual points to Wilson’s 109. This is a significant difference, and could fuel a bit of anxiety in terms of the near ubiquity of King being selected.

On a total level, King does stand up to Wilson – more shots for example.

But on an average per appearance level, Wilson shows he’s a bit superior. He’s got a better open play xG – though an identical xGI of 0.5 – and more pen box touches, a better mins per go, a better attempts ratio, far better accuracy and conversion rate, and better chance creation.

Wilson is attuned to basically what their key creator in Fraser is doing; he’s also in the right positions, with 20 big chances missed last season.

King does look the “beta” pick to Wilson – it’s almost like the poor man’s Auba v Laca, with Wilson beating King out on every measure but that price differential being what may prove the difference.

Wilson got the big chances in the beginning last season – 11 to King’s 6 – but didn’t drastically outscore King in terms of end product. 5g5a in opening games v 4g4a for King.

ASSISTS THAT MADE THE DIFFERENCE… CHANCES CREATED

12 goals by King, King penalties – 5 – and 1 from set piece – means half of his output was from dead ball, high xG situations.

King is also a bit more bonus point friendly, with a higher baseline bonus and bps generation rate than Wilson – but we’re really, really scraping the barrel.

VALUE ANALYSIS shows Wilson not too far from King, though… so it’s like

0.49 between Wilson and King.

Stats = Wilson

Talisman = Wilson

Value = King

Judgement = Wilson is a better player

Reality = King goal gw1

Burnley

Straight off the bat – I’m less interested in last season’s data with them than maybe any other side.

UEL and a small squad was the key reason – I just don’t think they were set up for it, so we saw the unusual site of them conceding more goals than they scored both home and away (1.68 conceded home v 1.26 scored // 1.89 away v 1.11 scored). 68 conceded in total, just 1 less than Cardiff oof

Massive jump from the only 38 conceded the year before.

36 goals scored 17/18 / 45 goals scored 18/19

Never normally this way – in fact their goals conceded per match basically doubled last year at home, from 0.89 in 2017/18 to that figure of 1.68 in 2018/19.Could be the Joe Hart effect, a player who should be in the MLS right now rather than anywhere near a PL football pitch but equally I also think they were too tired to execute the rigid press that’s so often worked for them.

They’ve been so good in the past I’m basically willing to give them a pass, and think things like the 84 big chances conceded last season are an anomaly – normally that’s around the 50s.

I also carry this on with players a bit, though Nick may have some of last year.

GKS – Pope/Heaton/Hart triumvirate. Looks like it’s Pope who has the new contract, and Heaton is being linked elsewhere having not signed one. Hart should be in the bin.

In 2017/18 Pope was an absolute legend, recording 11 clean sheets and 113 saves on his way to 152 points. He’d have outscored Lloris, Fabianski and Kepa by this measure, so as soon as I saw him at 4.5m I bookmarked him.

Pope is a fabulous goalkeeper at that price. His xG prevented in 2017/18 was just 1.4 below DDG’s, and he actually stopped around 4 more expected goals than the united man to ocme in at 9.3xG prevented. Fabianski was last season’s winner on this measure with 10, by the way.

Sadly we don’t have Tom Heaton’s expected data in the same way, but 10 clean sheets in 2016/17 and in their first season in 2014/15 and over the 150 threshold that season points to one inference we could make: back the burnley keeper.

At 4.5m as well, a rarity this year that they are so cheap.

Classically, Burnley do well at the back. Think of Stephen Ward’s runaway rise in the 2017/18 season when he reached the giddy heights of 5.4m from a 4.5m start price.

Tarko and Mee are meh, get to around the mid 90s – kind of what you’d expect. Charlie Taylor at 4.5m seems the no1 pick, could be a cheapie if you’re rotating. They are the CBI specialists, though – 334 and 330 for respectively, the biggest of any.

But the no-nonsense style Dyche employs at times means that the bonus oddly tends to go backwards to the keepers – which again promotes their case over a defenders.

Midfield – meh. McNeil I had my eye on but has been priced out at 6.0. Managed 3g 4a last season and did a good job for many. But probably still learning – worth a spin maybe at 5.0-5.5, but 6.0 seems overprice.

JBG worth a quick mention, two years ago was their key goal threat (54 attempts) and chance creator from the wing, firing in 213 crosses and creating 67 chances, again in 2017/18. Could he be of interest?

Up front, it was all about Barnes and Wood before JRod came back- but Burnley fans like FPL Claret and turfytopper seem to think it’ll remain thus.

Wood was the talisman with app points removed, but not by much – 1.16% separated the two.

Here I will use last season’s data, if only to comment on the crazy stats of Ashley Barnes. The xG from the no1 Austrian striker was just incredible, a non pen xG of 12.25! xGI of 16.31.

In comparison, Wood at 6.15xG open play, and 11.5xGI.

Just to place that in context, in the second half of the season Barnes’ xGI was higher than the likes of Jamie Vardy, Raul Jimenez, Alex Lacazette, Callum Wilson and Marcus Rashford in the final half of the season.

What a hero.

Barnes had more shots and created more chances than Wood on average – surprised they’re both priced the same.

Fixtures are quite meh. SOU ars wol LIV before a decent bha NOR avl EVE lei run.

Worth the punt? Maybe. But just wow.

Brighton

Let’s have a rest here….

No seriously, obviously new man coming in with Potter, whose Swansea were very attacking last season.

For example, despite finishing 10th, they were 7h for shots on target with 214 – more than eventually promoted Sheffield United (11th with 196).

He’s also a very competent manager – Swansea received £40m+ in revenues last season but made only £5m to spend, and their biggest signings were young rospects like Bersant Celina and Joel Osoro, who’d only played 90 apps between them. Oli McBurnie came on in leaps and bounds, 22 goals he scored.

Objectively, I find it very hard to get excited about Brighton unfortunately, despite an OK start

wat WHU SOU mci BUR

60 goals conceded last year though, 54 last year, kinda the same really…

Told Swansea were poor at defending set pieces and dealing with aerial balls – but in Dunk (maybe) and Duffy (definitely), they have two of the best men for this of all. Duffy made a clearance every 12.7 minutes, and came 3rd on the CBI with an 326 actions here. Dunk in the top 10 as well on 277.

Mat Ryan? Not so much a good keeper. He actually conceded 3 more goals than he was expected to last season, woops. 98 saves alright, not great, but only 6 clean sheets makes me really worry for him despite being a good “king and heir” with Button.

Without Dunk? New man Clarke from Pompey and Nick’s man Balogun there.

Midfield. Meh again, Solly March highest point scorer, Dale Stephens getting you 2 points.

One I would highlight is Pascal Gross – slight downgrade to 6.5m. 164 points in year one with 7 goals, 8 assists and bonus galore, including a random 3 pointer in a loss at Old Trafford.

Despite only playing 25 games, Gross created more than any other Brighton player (54), level with Pogba(!). Underachieved his xGI as well (8.66 v 6 actual GI)

Little bit less than 2017/18, when he created 86 chances, of which 16 were bigguns, in 2017/18. Remember a good stat that in 2016/17 he created more chances for relegated Ingolstadt than Mesut Ozil (then not a laughing stock) did in the PL. That year he massively overachieved his xGI, though, by 5.55 involvements – 9.45 v 8 goals and 7 assists. Suggests we should expect about 9 returns from him a year – still good in certain situations.

Trossard – TL;DR it’s Belgian league. Jakhanbash.. meh. Izquierdo, meh…

But Wee Rogue linked to me a few statsbomb articles on how the likes of Trossart, Jakhanbash and Analytic FPL Simon’s man Bissouma have been linked to analytics in their recruitment strategy – statsbomb also suggested that Chris Hughton’s conservatism was slightly misaligned with technical director Dan Ashworth’s template for selecting players. With a more forward thinking manager like Potter…?

Up front, Murray the talisman again. Surely the old warhorse needs to step back?Brings me to Andone, an indie pick.

5.0, never really been too prolific (best record is 12 goals in 37 apps for Depotive in 2016/17) but if he starts to take the mantle (and Locadia is a winger, as I always kinda thought) at Brighton then as long as he’s scoring at that kind of rate (a goal every 3 games) that could be hot value.

I look at McBurnie – admittedly, much younger – and hear what’s being said by Andone about finally getting over niggling injuries and wonder if he could be the cheap filler pick the likes of Sorloth and Anichebe have promised to be in the past?

Chelsea

WE SPOKE TO TOM @FPLPHYSIO ABOUT HIS TEAM

- Willian fan- Azpilicueta a good bet- Lampard plays 4-3-3 with 2 attacking mids and 1 anchor- Barkley might be a good one?

Good numbers last year – on an overall level, scored 1.57 goals at home and conceded 0.84 per game, and on an away bent scored 1.68 per match, conceding 1.16. 63 goals, 6 th from top, 39 conceded, 4th from bottom…

Conceded 3 least shots in box, 3rd least on target and the 4th least big chances.

Really scary numbers to be overlooking in the opening period – which many have due to the United game – and that defence is very settled, with not outgoings of course due to the transfer ban under Lampard.

Kepa alright cheap route into team at 5.5, kept 14 clean sheets in 36 games last season as well as 83 saves – worryingly his save % was less than the likes of Foster and Rui Patrici at 67.8% (narrowly beating out, er, Sergio Rico at 67.4%)

Did look at Derby’s record under Lampard, and found they were also pretty solid at home – 0.88 goals conceded per game isn’t far from the Chelsea 0.84 last campaign. 13 clean sheets

In terms of that defence, David Luiz turns out to be great value, finishing 7 in our value metrics stakes and Azpilicueta in 9. Alonso was 19th as well by the way.

Looked at data and surprised to see Alonso was still 2nd for shots overall, though Doc’s 46 shots is garnished with the fact that an astonishing 40 of these were in the box versus Alonso’s 25 – also 9 big chances to Alonso’s 5. Finished last season on 161 points still, much fewer goals (2 down from 7 and 6) but more assistlonso as it assisted 8 times alongside banking 14 clean sheets. Very decent.

However, if Lamps fancies Alonso might we see the TRAD at the back with Trent Robbo Alonso and Digne maybe??

Alonso actually scored more points than Azpi, who relinquished top BPS man to VVD this year for the first time in ages, having scored only a paltry 11 compared to 25 and 22 in prior seasons. He has kept his Assistalicueta vibe going, though, with 6 assists once more.

Alonso also created more chances than azpi (33 to 25), with David Luiz down at 17. But an astonishing fact for you – 11 of the 17 chances David Luiz created were big chances. ELEVEN! That means his xGI wasn’t far off Alonso’s at 5.36, to the Spaniard’s 5.96.

He scored 3 goals and only got 2 assists due to misfiring Chelsea strikers, but that’s quite something. Luiz accrued 19 bps too, which is quite something again as Azpi actually out bps actioned him by 797 to 818… Also DFKs maybe for long shot attempts? FPL Reuser with a good thread on why that doesn’t matter tooooo much but any revenue stream counts right?

Azpi also ? – Simon Phillips I think it was said that Reece James is competing against Dave, whose age may be beginning to tell. But DK about that from outset.

Interesting question on who will partner Luiz to begin with, too, with Rudiger missing

Christensen 5.0? Zouma? Tomori?

Midfield void to be filled by Haz.

Lampard played a 4-3-3 at Derby. Kovacic has signed properly.

Who will play with Kante and Jorginho?

Barkley?

Barkley.

Give a shout out to old Rossy and as Tom says most Chelsea fans expect him to start the season

After United they’ve a really good start, with only Liverpool in GW6 giving any tough fixture until GW13 away at City

So, Barkley is down to 6.0, just want to shout out his golden years at Everton in 2015/16 when he scored 158 points for 8 goals and 9 assists, and then in 2016/17 when he scored 144 points at 5 goals 11 assists. Something of the Bentekes about Barkley for me – a real falling star all the way down from a 7.5m mid in his heyday

As a box-to-box midfielder, might Frank spot something in his game and help him along? We’ve seen how managers may improve players in their mould, like OGS with Rashford initially, arguably.

2015/16 – Barkley was 4th overall with 95 attempts at goal, 39 of which were in the box – 2016/17, he was 8th with 88 – just 4 less than the likes of Pogba and just 6 behind Dele alli.

Super flimsy of course, but at 6.0 you’re in punty territory… but with the fixtures and proven effectiveness as an FPL asset, why not IF it looks like he’s the starter?

Need to see what happens with Haz lookalike Kovavic, though, and new contract Mount (9 goals and 4 assists in championship last year)

Jorginho? Kante? 2.5 points per game I think. At 5.0, stick ‘em in. Not much more to say, can get the punt on Jorginho if he’s your 12th man.

WINGERS

Willian ever the nearly man – could he take up the mantle? 5 goals 10 assists in 2015/16 when Haz was a bit quieter. Average of about 118 points per season. Consistently a solid B, basically.

5th for chances created last season – 78, 19 fewer than Haz but still decent. Also in top 20 for attempts.

Seems to average about 75 chances created and 60 creations.. but what’s really depressing is his understat – 4.35xG, 1.35 understat. Boring.

Pedro – can he step up? 2016/17 162 points, 9 goals and 10 assists… that’s decent. But he did overperform, 5 and 5 was what he was due. Older now. Again, hmm?

So is the great American hope Pulisic, 182 take-ons which is exciting, but only won out in 77 of them. In contrast, Haz was 137 dribbles complete. Shocked he’s 20. Seems to be in need of end product, though – xG 5.48 and xA of 5.3 in the fuller 2017/18 season I looked at (locked out by Sancho last year). Shows that he’ll need to produce more end product… or he becomes another Felipe.

Striker – up in the air. Giroud Bats and Tammy, god knows.

Tammy had his chance for Swansea, 5 goals and 3 assists for 86 points that year after 23 goals in the Championship. Ditto in last season for Villa – needs a breakthrough season at the top level or he’s basically just another Cameron Jerome, too good for the Championship, not good enough for the Prem

Bats – recent record reflects how in and out he has been, 5 goals in 11 for Palace, 1 goal in 15 apps for Valencia, 7 goals in 10 apps for BVD. 17g 9g season in 2015/16 which seemingly lured Chelsea… but ever unfancied.

Giroud. Kylie’s sexy man – If he plays over 1500 mins, he’s on for over 150 points as per his time at Arsenal as main man – averaging about 15 goals per season. So if he can do that for Chelsea – he

underperformed with just the 2 goals relative to his XG of 5ish – and starts a lot then up for it. 7.0 could be great value.

CRYSTAL PALACE

EVE shu mum AVL tot mixed bag

They were much better away than home last year – 1 goal scored on average v 1.21 conceded at home, versus 1.68 away scored and 1.58 conceded. 12 cleanies

51 scored, 53 conceded, but they were a decent source of FPL points last season – they actually scored more overall than United – 1587 to 1544, 43 more – to end up in 7 th. As a team that’s more points than the likes of Wolves, Leicester and Bournemouth, which was really surprising.

Stubbornly mid table on all defensive measures, and also the offensive ones.

But there is one thing they are really high on… penalties.

10 last season, 10 the season before, 20 goals for Milivojevic, aka 100 points as gimmes. Wow.

But with Zaha leaving, it remains to be seen what sort of Palace we’ll see

Shame Guaita was bumped to 5.0m, still some rotation with Wayne “don’t mention the war” Hennessey too, only played 20 games but a higher save % than the likes of Fabianski and DDG.

With the loss of AWB, they will be defensively weakened.

Worth talking about his stats a moment. 3rd most tackles won last year (behind Pereira and Declan Rice), but what’s crazy is a the % - 92.9% of the tackles he made were successful. Only one man can better that among players who played over 3000 minutes: Virgil Van Dijk, who won 38 out of 38 of his tackles.

Without him, the injury proneness of the likes of Tomkins and Sakho, and insufficient backup like Ward and Kelly, make me worry about any investment at the back

PvA a perennial threat – joint 2nd for shots for defenders, 140 points, 3 goals 2 assists. Also top 5 for xGI among current PL defenders (Sean Morrison was 3rd); but you’re only looking about 6 involvements.

Milly in midfield – stats are not that special. It’s the penalty record which is bonkers. 10 last season level with the likes of Alan Shearer and Ruud van Nistelrooy for pens in a single campaign – only Andy Johnson in 2004/5 scored more.

Fun fact; Milivojevic has scored 24 goals in the Prem, second highest scoring Serb behind Savo Milosevic for Villa (29). 10+7 from pens, 1+2 from set pieces = 20/24 = 83% of his goals from dead ball situations. Madness.

Zaha got more pen box touches than any other forward (237) last year. Now a midfielder again, that’ll take him into the top 4 there – dwarfed by Salah’s massive 322 and Sterling’s 298, but just 3 behind Eden Hazard

11 assists last season, 6 were fantasy assists lol – meant for the first time in 3 years Raheem Sterling was not the fantasy assist king.

Modest numbers elsewhere in terms of actual shots/creativity, it’s the dribbling and touches. Could be very interesting at 7.0

McArthur, Townsend, Schlupp – yeah could see why they may be in the picture at times but let’s leave it

Quick shout to Wickham at 4.5 could be a good option

Benteke at 6.0 is my final bit of interest. BIG falling star (literally and metaphorically). Tekkers’ season best is 2016/17, when he scored 136 points from 15 goals and 2 assists. At Palace.

Now priced at 6.0, the Belgian’s FPL star has fallen drastically – but back in the season in question, he started at 7.5m, perhaps closer to what we anticipate Haller would be. That year, Tekkers as Target Man hit 95 of his 105 attempts (a huge 90%) from inside the box, which works out at 2.7 shots per game, roughly.

Could be one we rediscover?

EVERTON

Obviously lots of interest – cry WAT avl WOL bou SHU

Really picked up the back end of last season when we’d all forgotten about them due to DGWs.

W5, D3, L2 including the 4-0 thumping of United.

Digne scored 40+ points. Siggy crept into the team of the year.

Season as a whole:

Much better at home than away – 1.47 goals, 1.16 conceded v 0.84 scored and 1.84 conceded away.

54 scored, 46 conceded, 14 clean sheets

That meant that Pickford – who also saved 3 penalties – was ludicrous value at 5.0 with 161 points scored and the bump to 5.5m. Meant he was even better value Alisson Ederson etc

Lucas Digne – great piece put together by AbuBakr Siddiq on twitter, same notes as me basically: 71 chances created (just 28 off Maddison’s haul), 21 more than Robbo, in just under 3000 minutes

280 crosses as well – but only 5 assists to show for it, as well as 4 goals.

Baines 1 – 2013/14, 90 chances

Digne 2 – 2018/19, 71 chances

Baines 3 – 2014/15 70 chances

Moreno 4 – 2015/16, 61 chances

Damn

Also left sided set pieces, but want to mention a great thread by FPL Reuser (reuser5) which showed:

Digne has one of the best corner conversion rates - and got a single assist from a total of 89 corners.

But never left my team since GW1.

Coleman the other one being pushed by FFS amongst others – in our over 30s team

0.5 cheaper – FFS’ basic value metric seemed to display that Coleman edges it

I get it – but it feels like it’s become a bit of a cause celebre rather than a logical look to try to justify not spending the extra 0.5. I don’t really care what the rejoinder will be, purely because of a great point on this in our slack by our friend Matt – if both were priced the same, I don’t think anyone would be digging up stats to support Coleman.

I had a look at our value calculations – which include a modifier to include time spent on the field – and yeah Digne wipes the floor with Coleman. Coleman appeared in about 75% of the available time, Digne 87%. Coleman 125 points, Digne 158 – take appearance out, 68 for Coleman, 90 for Digne

11 big chances by Digne, 6 by Coleman… so maybe proportional and you can make a saving?

Does Digne offer more than Coleman, is basically the question?

The value data would seem to suggest yes – value score moderated by appearance for Digne is 13 points per mill, versus 9.25 points per mill for Coleman.

I can see the stats argument, better quality of chances being created on the final stretch, but add in other factors too, like Digne being attuned to the PL, the numbers and everything else, and I don’t see the case for Coleman so much. Will be interesting over the course of the season anyway, don’t want to get into some spat about this as hindsight will show

I think there's a lot of confirmation bias at play with them homing in on that big chances stat The creativity data in general is very clearly in Digne's courtPen box touches and higher xG shots I guess I can see that argument forWhat I'm basically saying is that I could construct the opposite argument, homing in on and honing specific stats which promote Digne. And by doing that, the case for Digne feels better than the case for Coleman. Where it gets more interesting is in the ifs and buts of, say, being able to afford a Fraser over Maddison but feels very meh

Keane? Mina? Meh

Midfield – Gomes, Gueye out, Delph OOP, but all meh

Midfield – Richarlison or Siggy?

Richarlison starts strong! Brace on opening day, then another the next. First big bandwagon last season at 6.5m. Up to 8m now, as Milva’s blue-eyed boy scored 153 points from 13 goals and 3 assists – inevitable drop off after Christmas and only mustered 3 goals in the last 10

Siggy was consistent. 13 goals, 6 assists, most goals ever, most points ever 182 (beats his previous best in Swansea heroics 181), favoured no10 role, settled team, set pieces shared with Dig who I own anyway, player of the year… what’s not to love?

Feels like a bit of an either/or really, with Richarlison’s potential quick start versus Siggy’s potential set and forgetness. One of those where manager judgement may reign supreme.

Siggy similar number of attempts – Richarlison more shots in the box and pen box touches – and Siggy created more (73 chances, same as Eriksen). xA miles better, and his xGOP was actually not far off Richarlison’s at all – 6.14 v 6.44 for the Brazilian

So I think Siggy offers more, it’s just what might happen on the day I guess.

DCL DLC?

Same number of attempts as Glenn Murray/Ayoze Perez

But the concern is that his xGI was so low – 6.58 same as bloody Shane Long or Andre Gray – surely a striker has to come in because I’m not sure DCL is quite the man to put the chances created by Sig and Dig away.. but at 6.0 may be in by default if you’re shopping around down there for some reason.

LEICESTER

Tom Campbell’s piece looked at how team output changed during the season, and through his aggregated totals that he kindly put together for us, he found that Leicester were actually the 3 rd best attacking team end of the season

1.25 goals scored / 1.05 conceded home

1.42 scored / 1.47 conceded away

51 goals scored, 48 conceded

Made a chance every 6.3 mins in that final 19 games – more frequently than Liverpool! Compare that to a chance every 8 mins under Puel, around the likes of Huddersfield, and that one point can show the Bodger effect

Talisman star – Jamie Vardy

Have always been very cold on ratface but looking at his explosive points potential under Bodger, it’s hard to ignore him.

Exit velocity notes looked at % change since March data and end of the season in terms of personal points scored, and Vardy upped his total from 74 to 110, a massive 48.65% percentage chance off the back of a fantastic end of season romp – assisted actually by Tielemans a lot, fun fact that Vardy got a return of some kind in 61% of the games Tielemans appeared in

Anyway, a couple of little known facts about Vardy

Bonus hog. He’s scored the most bonus points over the past 2 seasons – 31 last year, 28 the season before.

Unlike Mo Salah, he doesn’t take too many shots – and he’s very accurate so doesn’t get penalised when he does. 48% shot accuracy from 74 shots in the box last season. Translates into a very decent xG – 2nd highest for forwards, higher than Kun Aguero, and xGI – 3rd, with Kun overtaking on xA.

Just a very dangerous player.

Tielemans/Maddy/Perez triumvirate.

Tielemans v Maddy I think we need to look at first, then weigh in the new boy Perez

Tielemans v Maddy I looked at on a per game basis to reflect the lesser amount of time Tielemans has spent in the PL. Tielemans had slightly worse xG/xA, but more attempts, more on target, and more throughballs – whereas Maddy was better at overall chance creation and pen box touches.

Another weird one – is Maddy worth the extra 0.5? Maybe the fact that he’s more expensive, as with Digne/Coleman, is why I’m looking at this, but from watching Tielemans’ all action style I am not too averse to owning him over Maddison to be honest.

Ayoze in my team though – Nick…

Chilwell/Maguire? Kasper? Meh, probably spent too long on this already and need to discuss Liverpool. If Maguire goes, and Tarko goes to there… Gibson 4.0!?

LIVERPOOL

2.89 goals per game home, 0.53 conceded

1.79/0.63

9 more FPL points than Man City last year.

2nd best to city on most attacking and defensive measures – 100 fewer shots than City (Chelsea actually also beat them out) but they only scored 6 fewer goals

Same old story.

Their defence is ridiculous value.

VVD v the rest

Alisson – but unfortunately he uses a Liverpool slot! Fun fact, Alisson spent more time on the pitch than any other PL player last season across all competitions – 5130 mins, 57 matches

Week to week basis though the ceiling for TAA/Robbo higher

Midfielders – Mane out of commission after ACON final. Has played 56 games over the last almost year – 12th august 2018 to the ACON semi.

Salah I just can’t see past.

If mane was fit, there’d be an argument… but. xG and xGI shows Mane massively overperforming to get to his 22 goals last season, with few assists (1 real, 2 FPL) and Salah basically matching. If we’ve seen a regression with Salah, it was last season from that stellar 300+ one in the first year when he scored 1% of all FPL points. If you expect a player to score 250+ points per season, you’re basically buying him.

Matt big on Firmino: Did you know that, in the second half of last season (so, mostly post Brodge), Firmino had a better xG per minute than Vardy, and a much better xA per minute than Vardy. The difference was that Firmino played less as the season wore on. But that shouldn’t be the case to start the season.

Youch. No8.

Not sure what else we have to say here – you all know all this.