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Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Area Briefing

June 2018

Overview

The Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area is composed of seven Oklahoma counties: Adair, Cherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Sequoyah, and Wagoner. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, this combined region of Oklahoma covers 4,912 square miles, making it the third smallest of the state’s workforce areas in land mass. In 2018, the estimated population is 319,102 – approximately 8% of the state’s total population. Three cities in the area boast populations over 10,000, including Muskogee, Tahlequah, and Okmulgee.

Note that for simplicity, the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area will generally be referenced throughout this report as the “Area.” Sources for all data are cited. The most common data source utilized is EMSI – Economic Modeling Solutions International – data release 2018.2. Data are rounded to the nearest whole number or the nearest tenth as appropriate. As a result, some data presented may not sum exactly to the total reported. Negative numbers are cited in red and bracketed by parentheses.

Population Breakdown: County

Figure 1: 2018 Estimated Population Percentage by County

Source: EMSI 2018.2

· The city of Muskogee, the county seat of Muskogee County, is the largest city in the Area with an estimated population of 39,223. Muskogee County is home to a total of 69,065 individuals, representing 21.6% of the population of the Area.

· Wagoner County, the smallest county geographically with only 591 square miles, is the most populous county in the Area with 79,157 residents, equivalent to 24.8% of the Area population.

· McIntosh County is the least populous county in the Area with an estimated total population in 2018 of 19,629 (6.2%).

· Over the past five years, from 2013 to 2018, the Area experienced a minor growth rate of only 0.55%, a net increase of 1,744 residents. This small overall growth was fueled by population increases in only two counties: Wagoner County which experienced the highest growth rate of 4.5% and Cherokee County which grew by 2.4%. These two counties accounted for an overall population increase of 4,592 Area residents.

In contrast, during that same timeframe, five Area counties decreased in population: Muskogee County, (-1.6%) representing a loss of (-1,154) residents; Sequoyah County, (-0.4%, -148); Okmulgee County, (-1.2%, -465); Adair County, (-1.1%, -245) residents; and McIntosh County, (-4.1%, -836). These changes in county population may reflect a significant number of Area residents relocating inter-county. Though many factors may be involved in these population shifts, based upon the growth in Wagoner and Cherokee counties, it may be hypothesized that rural residents are migrating to larger metropolitan regions.

· Projections indicate these trends will continue through 2028, with Wagoner and Cherokee Counties experiencing growth of 4.8% and 2.0%, respectively, while the remaining counties are anticipated to continue to decrease in population with the greatest loss, (-1.3%) equivalent to (-866) residents, centered in Muskogee County.

· In addition to overall population representation, it is helpful to examine population density, measured in the number of persons living in a one-square-mile area. Much of the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area remains rural. Five of the seven counties exhibit relatively low population density rates, under 65 persons per square mile. Due to the population losses noted above, the density rates of these counties are in decline.

McIntosh is most notable as the county possessing the lowest population density in the Area at 28 persons per square mile – five persons per square mile less than reported in 2016. An average of 82 individuals live within each square mile of Muskogee County, a decline of 6 points since 2016.

Wagoner County, noted previously as the smallest geographical area of 591 square miles and the largest population of 79,157, experiences a population density rate of 134 persons per square mile. As a point of comparison, the two counties in the state of Oklahoma experiencing the highest population density, Oklahoma and Tulsa, each display county-wide population densities of over 1,100 individuals per square mile.

Population Breakdown: Race and Ethnicity

Figure 2 illustrates the racial and ethnic diversity of residents living in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area. The racial categories designated by the U.S. Census Bureau are utilized. It should be noted that the Census Bureau categorizes “Hispanic,” not as a race, but as an ethnicity. As such, Hispanic is always reported in conjunction with another racial designator, i.e. “Black or African American, Hispanic.” Unless otherwise noted, individual races included in this briefing section were reported as Non-Hispanic.

· The population of the Area is more racially diverse than Oklahoma as a whole. Nearly 191,000 Area residents identify themselves as “White.” This equates to 59.8% of the total Area population and is 5.6 percentage points less than the statewide respresentation of the “White” race which is reported at 65.4%.

· At 0.049% (158 total Area residents) Native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders comprise the smallest racial classification. By 2028, the population of this cohort is expected to increase by 19.0% to 188 residents.

Figure 2: 2018 Estimated Population by Race and Ethnicity

Source: EMSI, 2018.2

· Individuals of native descent are categorized by the Census Burea as “American Indian or Alaska Native.” For simplicity, this racial category will be referrenced in this report as “Native American.”

At 20.4% of the population, Native Americans are significantly over-represented in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area compared with the Oklahoma statewide representation of 8.3%. This racial disparity between the Area and the state would be expected based upon the location of the Area in Oklahoma’s historical Indian Territory. Additionally, three Native American tribes maintain tribal headquarters in the Area, including the Cherokee Nation in Tahlequah, Muscogee (Creek) Nation in Okmulgee, and United Keetoowah Band of Cherokees in Park Hill, Oklahoma. (Oklahoma Historial Society)

· Individuals self-identifying as “Black or African American, Non-Hispanic” are significantly under-represented in the Area at 4.7% compared to a statewide population of 7.5%. This disparity will be compounded in the future as the resprentation of this racial category is anticipated to decline by (-3.5%) in the Area while growing by 4.0% in the state as a whole.

· Individuals who self-identify as being of Hispanic ethnicity account for 5.7% of the Area population. As noted previously, Hispanic ethnicity is always reported in conjunction with a racial designator. This figure includes everyone of Hispanic ethnicity, regardless of race. Between 2013 and 2018, the Hispanic population in the Area increased by 15.2%. This is comparable to the statewide growth rate of 15.3%. Between 2018 and 2028, the rate of growth for the Hispanic population in the Area is expected to slow to 11.6%.

· Between 2013 and 2018, the growth rate for the Non-Hispanic population reflected a loss of (-0.2%), resulting in a decline in population in that category of an estimated (-646) individuals. Growth for this cohort will remain relatively stagnant through 2028, with a projected growth rate of only 0.3%. These data include individuals of any race who report Non-Hispanic ethnicity.

Native American Population

Based upon the significant over-representation of Native Americans in the Area, this group was selected for further analysis. Following the analysis summary, Figure 3, titled “2018 Percentage of Race by Age, Native Americans versus All Other Racial Categories” illustrates the Native American population by age as compared to populations who identify as any other race.

· As noted previously, Native Americans, Non-Hispanic, account for 20.4% of the population in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Area. When individuals classifying themselves as Native Americans, Hispanic, are included, the percentage increases to 21.6%. The aggregated counts of all other racial populations, represented in the chart by the category “All Other Races,” equates to 78.4% of the overall Area population.

· The lowest percentages of the Native American population are found in the 15-19 and 20-24 age ranges, at 8.9% and 8.4% respectively.

· The majority of the Native American population is 34 years of age or younger (55.8%) while the majority of those classified as “All Other Races” are over the age of 35 (57.4%). Nearly 25% of all Native Americans residing in the Area are under the age of 15 and 34% are under the age of 19; for all other races, only 18.5% are under the age of 15 and 24.6% are under the age of 19.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, an examination of the group of individuals above traditional retirement age – 65 years and over – reveals that Other Races are represented at a rate nearly twice that of Native Americans. Over 19% of Area residents of Other Races are retirement age versus only 10.4% of Native Americans.

These figures hold significant implication for the diversity of the racial makeup of the future workforce in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area. Those individuals classified as “All other Races” currently in the workforce will continue to age out and exit the workforce at a higher rate than Native Americans, to be replaced by a greater representation of entry-age Native Americans. Another impact of this shift in racial representation affects educators. This significant cohort of young Native Americans either preparing to enter or currently enrolled in the K-12 and/or Career Tech systems offers increased opportunities to engage with and mentor Native American youth, preparing them for the future needs of the workforce.

Figure 3: 2018 Percentage of Race by Age; Native Americans versus All Other Racial Categories

Source: EMSI 2018.2

Equal Opportunity

The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) is tasked with enforcing federal laws that make it illegal to discriminate against job applicants and employees who are included in several diverse categories. These protected groups include age, disability, national origin, race/color, religion, and sex, among others (www.eeoc.gov). The following data serve to increase awareness of cohorts of Oklahoma citizens of workforce age possibly at risk for discrimination. For the purposes of this report, data and analyses are presented for six categories specifically associated with Equal Opportunity enforcement: Disability, Age and Gender, Race and Ethnicity, English Language Learners, Religious Affiliation, and Unemployment of Adults Age 40 to 64 years. Age ranges for each category are aligned as closely as possible contingent upon data availability. Sources are noted for each category. Full data regarding Equal Opportunity in the Area are available in Appendix A.

Disability (18 to 64 years of age; Under 18 years of age).

Source: American Community Survey, 2016, 5-year Estimates

The U.S. Census Bureau collects disability data through the American Community Survey and reports it aggregated by disability type, termed “difficulties.” The six categories utilized in this report include hearing, vision, cognitive, ambulatory, self-care, and independent living difficulties. Data are self-reported by survey respondents based upon their perception of the existence of a disability/difficulty.

Current Workforce, 18 to 64 years of age.

· In 2016, the population of the Area for individuals between 18 and 64 years of age was approximately 185,544. Of these, 31,891 reported possessing one or more disabilities, resulting in an overall disability rate for the Area in this age bracket of 17.2%. This is significantly higher than the state rate of 13.9%.

· A comparison of Workforce Development Areas reveals that the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area reports the second-highest disability rate for this cohort. Only the Southern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area ranks higher at 18.5%.

· For those individuals reporting a disability, most indicated their difficulty was of an ambulatory nature (56%). Self-care disabilities ranked lowest with only 16.1%.

· Males were more likely to report a difficulty than females, exhibiting overall rates of 17.9% and 16.5% respectively.

· With regard to race, the highest rate was found among Native Americans at 17.9%, followed closely by Whites at 17.4% and Black or African Americans at 17.1%.

· Asians reported the lowest disability rate at 3.7%. This trend is reflected at virtually all geographical levels – state, Workforce Area, and most Oklahoma counties. Further research would be required to determine if this trend presents an accurate representation of the disability rates for individuals of Asian descent or if other factors such as privacy concerns, a reluctance to report the existence of disabilities, or cultural beliefs may be skewing the data.

Future Workforce, Under 18 years of age.

· Disability rates for youth under the age of 18 are significantly lower at 5.3%. Multiple factors may contribute to this differential. Many disabilities manifest as the individual grows older. Conversely, impediments are often difficult or impossible to diagnose in very young children. Additionally, some of the disabilities reported to the U.S. Census Bureau are inappropriate for certain age ranges, delaying the reporting of those disabilities.

· For this age group, Cognitive disability types presented most frequently, representing 68.4% of respondents reporting a difficulty. Ambulatory difficulties ranked lowest at 14.3%. As may be expected, Independent Living difficulties were not applicable to this subgroup of Area residents.

· As with the older cohort, males were more likely to report a disability than females, 6.2% compared with 4.4%.

· Individuals of Black or African American race reported the highest rates at 6.6%. While Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islanders reported a 0.0% disability rate, it must be remembered this racial category represents a very small number of residents. Asians reported a 0.8% disability rate.

Age and Gender (15 to 64 years of age).


EMSI reports population data base upon 5-year age brackets. In order to best represent the current workforce, ten age brackets were selected ranging from 15 to 19 years of age through 60 to 64 years of age.

· The Area workforce is contracting with fewer workers projected in this age range within the next 10 years. The total estimated 2017 Area population for this age bracket was 200,425. By 2027, that number is anticipated to decline to 192,778, an overall loss of (-3.8%).

· While the overall number of workers in the Area is anticipated to decline, a significant increase will occur in the prime working age categories of 35 to 39- and 40 to 44-years of age. These two age groups are projected to experience growth rates of 9.7% and 8.0% respectively by 2027.

Figure 4: Percentage of Growth/Loss of Workforce Population by Age Range, 2017 to 2027


· In 2017, gender representation in skewed slightly higher toward females in the 15 to 64-year bracket – 50.3% versus 49.7% male. While the overall population is anticipated to decrease by 2027, that decline disproportionately affects females. The gap between the genders will narrow by 0.1 percentage points, 49.8% male compared with 50.2% female.

Race and Ethnicity (15 to 64 years of age).


As indicated previously, the racial and ethnic categories utilized in this report are designated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

· Individuals self-identifying as White (regardless of ethnicity) constituted the largest racial group in the Area at 62.3%. American Indian or Alaskan Native (regardless of ethnicity) represent the second-largest group at 22.9%.

· When disaggregated by ethnicity, the category of White, Non-Hispanics maintains the majority of residents, albeit at a lower rate of 57.9%.

· Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander are the least populous, accounting for only 0.1% or 171 residents. Likewise, Asians constitute a very small percentage of the Area population at 1.2%, 1,929 residents. Increases in both of these populations are predicted by 2027 at 13.1% and 16.1% respectively; however, due to the small population sizes, these growth rates only result in a total of 286 new citizens.

· Black or African Americans represent only 5.2% of the population in this age bracket. This is well below the state-level representation for this racial group at 8.2%. While this cohort is predicted to increase 0.2% at the state level by 2027, population in the Area of Black or African American residents will decline by (-10.6%), a loss of approximately (-1,100) individuals.

· With regard to ethnicity only, Hispanics constitute 6.4% of the total population in the Area; however, the growth rate for this group is predicted to be 15.1% by 2027. This equates to 1,600 new Hispanic citizens. In comparison, the population of Non-Hispanics is anticipated to decline by (-3.8%), a projected loss of (-7,600) residents.

English Language Learners (18 to 64 years of age).

Source: American Community Survey, 2016, 5-year Estimates

The U.S. Census Bureau collects data regarding English usage and perceived fluency via the American Community Survey. Survey recipients are first requested to identify the primary language spoken in their home. Language choices are limited to:

· Spanish;

· Other Indo-European Language, (French, Italian, German, Russian, Hindi, Other Indic languages, etc.);

· Asian and Pacific Island Language, (Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Hmong, Vietnamese, Other languages of Asia, etc.); and,

· Other Language (Native languages of North America, Arabic, Hebrew, some languages of Africa, Hungarian, etc.).

Respondents who indicate speaking a language other than English are then asked to estimate their level of fluency in English (“How well does this person speak English?”). Four responses are available to this question: “Very Well,” “Well,” “Not Well,” or “Not at All.”

· Nearly 94% of residents in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area speak only English in their homes; 6.1% speak a language other than English. Of that 6.1%:

· 3.3% speak Spanish;

· 0.5% speak Other European Languages;

· 0.6% speak Asian and Pacific Island Language; and,

· 1.6% speak Other Languages.

· Spanish-language speakers report the lowest level of perceived English fluency with 25.2% reporting they speak English either “Not Well” or “Not at All.” Approximately 16% of Asian and Pacific Island Language speakers report this same level of English proficiency.

· Only 2.4% of individuals who speak “Other Languages” report low English proficiency. While the category of “Other Languages” includes a broad variety of tongues, based upon the racial distribution and the historical origins of the Area, it may be presumed these individuals predominantly represent Native American language speakers.

Religious Affiliation.

Source: Multiple cited within the analysis

While religion is a key component of concern for discrimination regarding equal opportunity, data pertaining to religious beliefs and affiliations is limited. Privately-conducted surveys are the predominant source of information available including the Pew Research Center Religious Landscape Study (http://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/state/oklahoma/), a 2009 Religious Affiliation study conducted by InfoGroup and reported via Social Explorer at the University of Wisconsin Extension (https://fyi.uwex.edu/community-data-tools/2011/12/05/detailed-data-on-religion-by-county/), and a 2010 Gallup Poll that quantifies perceived feelings of religious discrimination. Additional information is referenced from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunities Commission (EEOC). Despite the limitations of these sources, the statistics included in this report can assist in building a framework for the context of Oklahomans’ religious beliefs and help to identify the potential for increased risk factors of religious discrimination.

· Most residents of the Area identify with the Evangelical Protestant church. Over 430 congregations exist with nearly 73,000 members – 65.4% of all survey respondents. Another 13.5% identify themselves as Mainline Protestant while 4.1% are Roman Catholic. While there are 5 Latter-Day Saint (Mormon) congregations identified in the Area, the membership of those congregations constitutes only 0.6%.

· At the time of the referenced studies, there was minimal representation in the state of Non-Christian faiths. As of 2009, there were no reported Islamic, Hindu, or Buddhist congregations in the Area. Since that time, additional religious institutions for these faiths have been established in Oklahoma, but none were reported to be located in the Area.

· While data does not appear to be available at state, Area, or county levels, national data emphasize the importance of local awareness of this topic. According to the EEOC, religion-based discrimination charges filed with the agency rose steadily from 1997 to 2016. In 1997, the EEOC received 1,709 filings based upon perceived discrimination due to religion; 20 years later, in 2016, the EEOC received 3,825 filings, an increase of more than 123%. Additionally, the mixture of findings has altered with significant monetary impact. In 1997, 12.1% of charges received merited resolutions with a monetary benefit total of $2.2 million dollars ($3.3M in 2016 dollars). After reaching a peak at 24.1% merit resolutions with monetary benefits of $6.4M 2007 ($7.5M 2016), merit resolutions dropped in 2016 to 14.9%. Despite this 2016 drop in the percentage of claims upheld, awards rose as monetary benefits reached $10.1 million dollars. Clearly, while merit was found in a lesser number of religion-based EEOC claims in 2016, the average damage award/settlement per merited finding increased. (https://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc/statistics/enforcement/religion.cfm).

Unemployment of Older Adults (40 to 64 years of age).

Source: U. S. Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMs)

With regard to unemployment figures, data concerning individuals in the protected age category of 40 and over is difficult to extract. Most sources provide data broken into age ranges inconsistent with these protected class parameters. The data provided in this report was mined via the Data Ferret application from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2016 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMs). Unfortunately, the data from this Sample is only available at the national, United States regional, state, and PUMs levels. As the Bureau’s designated State Data Center, the Oklahoma Department of Commerce designates the extent of each PUMs Area (PUMA). The latest delineation of PUMAs took place in 2010. Currently, 28 PUMAs are defined for the state of Oklahoma including six for the Oklahoma City area and four for the Tulsa area.

Due to population requirements for the designation of a PUMs Area, each PUMA may include several counties or only a single part of a county, but are not defined or limited by county geographical boundaries. As a result, parts of a single county may be allocated to multiple different PUMAs. This methodology eliminates the ability to either 1) aggregate data into a WFDA, or 2) disaggregate data applicable to individual counties.

Within these data limitations, the observations presented in this section are made based upon PUMs Areas that contain counties or parts of counties included in the Area.

· At 80.8%, the highest labor force participation rates (LFPR) for this age bracket in the state are found in the Claremore City PUMA, which includes the western part of Wagoner County. For comparison purposes, two PUMs in Oklahoma City report slightly lower incidence of LFP at 80.7% and 80.6% and the four Tulsa PUMAs report LFP rates ranging between 72.6% and 79.3%.

· Conversely, the PUMA aggregated from Adair, Cherokee, and Sequoyah counties exhibits the lowest LFP rate in the state at 58.8%. Over 13,400 individuals in this age group reported not participating in the labor force.

· Unemployment rates for this cohort for PUMAs containing Area counties were reported as:

· 6.9% in Cherokee, Sequoyah, and Adair Counties PUMA;

· 2.4% in Claremore City PUMA including Rogers (Central) and Wagoner (West) Counties; and,

· 7.3% in Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner (East), and McIntosh Counties PUMA.

· Regarding racial distribution, the highest unemployment rates were reported as:

Table 1: Highest Unemployment Rates by PUMA and Race

PUMA

Race

Unemployment Rate

Cherokee, Sequoyah, and Adair Counties

Two or more races

25.8%

Claremore City PUMA (Rogers Central and Wagoner West)

American Indian or Alaskan Native

5.8%

Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner (East), and McIntosh Counties PUMA

American Indian or Alaskan Native

22.9%

· Within this age bracket, individuals with disabilities generally report significantly higher unemployment rates than those without disabilities. The PUMA composed of Cherokee, Sequoyah and Adair Counties is the exception, reporting a 0.0% unemployment rate for individuals with disabilities. This anomaly may be a function of the low labor force participation rate of 13.9% for individuals with disabilities. Everyone with a disability wishing to work was, at the time of the survey, working; however, the low LFP rate indicates that few residents in the PUMA reporting disabilities want to work.

Table 2: Highest Unemployment Rates by PUMA and Disability Status

PUMA

Disability

No Disability

Cherokee, Sequoyah, and Adair Counties

0.0%

7.5%

Claremore City PUMA (Rogers Central and Wagoner West)

19.8%

0.9%

Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner (East), and McIntosh Counties PUMA

18.2%

5.6%

· Unemployment rates for males consistently exceed those for females.

· Unemployment rates for Hispanics are reported at 0.0% for all three Area PUMAs. Like disability, these data are most likely a function of low population percentage and low labor force participation rates.

Educational Attainment

Data regarding educational attainment are gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau utilizing a variety of surveys. Census Bureau staff aggregate the data into seven educational attainment categories ranging from the completion of “Less than 9th Grade” up to the attainment of a “Graduate Degree or Higher.” Unfortunately, the scale currently in use fails to quantify those individuals who have achieved an educational award above the level of a high school diploma but below the attainment of an Associates Degree. This missing category is generally characterized by the completion of a career-specific vocationally associated certificate or an industry-recognized credential. The educational attainment levels, categorized utilizing the Census Bureau classifications, are discussed below and followed by two charts, “Educational Attainment by Education Level” and “Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity.” Data are provided for individuals aged 25 and over.

· Educational attainment in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area is heavily centered in the areas of “High school diploma” and “Some College.” Nearly 36% of residents have earned a diploma while an additional 23% have attended some college without completing a degree.

· Over one half of the Area residents have completed a high school diploma or less (51.3%). Over 15% of those individuals lack a high school diploma.

· Eighty-four percent of Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area residents have attained a high school diploma or higher. This level of educational attainment is lower than the state and national averages at 86% each. Likewise, with regard to postsecondary degrees – Associates Degrees and higher – the Area attainment level of 25.5% is lower than both the state (30.9%) and the national (37.4%) levels.

· Approximately 23.3% of Area residents have completed “Some College.” This percentage is higher than the national average of 20.7%, but slightly below that of the state at 23.5%.

· Residents possessing a Bachelor’s Degree constitute 12.4% of the population, about 24% fewer than the state level and 33% fewer than the national level. Approximately 5.5% of residents hold a Graduate Degree or Higher. This attainment level is less than ½ of the national level of 11.1% and 30% below the state level of 8.0%.

· Race and ethnicity figure prominently in educational achievement. With regard to race, regardless of ethnicity, 26.2% of Area residents self-identifying as “White” report attaining a college degree; for individuals who report being “Black or African American” or Native American the percentages drop to 23.6% and 22.0% respectively. The highest college degree completion rates are those of individuals who self-identify as Asian (37.3%) and Two or More Races (27.2%).

· The most significant educational attainment gap is revealed by an examination of data associated with ethnicity at the lower educational levels. Nearly 41% of Area Hispanics possess an educational level less than a high school diploma as compared with 14.7% for individuals of Non-Hispanic ethnicity. Only 41.0% of Hispanics have attained a high school diploma versus 59.5% of Non-Hispanics. With regards to a college degree, Hispanics continue to trail Non-Hispanics, 18.4% versus 25.8%, respectively.

Figure 5: Educational Attainment by Educational Level; Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area compared with Oklahoma and the United States

Source: EMSI 2018.2

Figure 6: Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity; Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Source: EMSI 2018.2

Educational Assets

Colleges, Universities, Career Technology Centers, and K-12 schools are instrumental in developing the workforce of the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area. The Area is home to several institutions which help supply local businesses and organizations with a workforce that has the necessary labor and skills to be competitive in today’s economy.

CareerTechs.

There are two CareerTechs with five locations in the Area:

· Green Country Technology Center (Okmulgee)

· Indian Capital Technology Center (Muskogee, Sallisaw, Stilwell, and Tahlequah)

Source: CareerTech.org

Colleges and Universities.

There are five colleges and universities in the Area:

· Bacone College (Muskogee)

· Carl Albert State College (Sallisaw)

· Connors State College (Muskogee and Warner)

· Northeastern State University (Tahlequah and Muskogee)

· Oklahoma State University Institute of Technology (Okmulgee)

Source: Oklahoma State Regents of Higher Education

K-12 School Districts.

There are 63 K-12 school districts in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area:

Office of Workforce Developmentwww.oklahomaworks.gov

22

Adair County:

· Peavine (Stilwell)

· Maryetta (Stilwell)

· Rocky Mountain (Stilwell)

· Zion (Stilwell)

· Dahlonegah (Stilwell)

· Greasy (Bunch)

· Watts (Watts)

· Westville (Westville)

· Stilwell (Stillwell)

· Cave Springs (Bunch)

Cherokee County:

· Lowrey (Tahlequah)

· Norwood (Hulbert)

· Woodall (Tahlequah)

· Shady Grove (Hulbert)

· Peggs (Peggs)

· Grand View (Tahlequah)

· Briggs (Tahlequah)

· Tenkiller (Welling)

· Keys (Park Hill)

· Hulbert (Hulbert)

· Tahlequah (Tahlequah)

· Cherokee Immersion Charter School (Tahlequah)

McIntosh County:

· Ryal (Henryetta)

· Stidham (Eufaula)

· Eufaula (Eufaula)

· Checotah (Checotah)

· Midway (Council Hill)

· Hanna (Hanna)

Muskogee County:

· Wainwright (Wainwright)

· Haskell (Haskell)

· Fort Gibson (Fort Gibson)

· Webbers Falls (Webbers Falls)

· Oktaha (Oktaha)

· Muskogee (Muskogee)

· Hilldale (Muskogee)

· Braggs (Braggs)

· Warner (Warner)

· Porum (Porum)

Okmulgee County:

· Twin Hills (Okmulgee)

· Okmulgee (Okmulgee)

· Henryetta (Henryetta)

· Morris (Morris)

· Beggs (Beggs)

· Preston (Preston)

· Schulter (Schulter)

· Wilson (Henryetta)

· Dewar (Dewar)

Sequoyah County:

· Liberty (Muldrow)

· Marble City (Marble City)

· Brushy (Sallisaw)

· Belfonte (Muldrow)

· Moffett (Moffett)

· Sallisaw (Sallisaw)

· Vian (Vian)

· Muldrow (Muldrow)

· Gans (Gans)

· Roland (Roland)

· Gore (Gore)

· Central (Sallisaw)

Wagoner County:

· Okay (Okay)

· Coweta (Coweta)

· Wagoner (Wagoner)

· Porter Consolidated (Porter)

Source: Oklahoma State Department of Education

Skills Gap

Building upon the educational attainment data presented previously, a skills gap analysis was completed. To achieve this analysis, the current level of educational achievement of Area residents was directly compared to the typical entry level of education required by newly created jobs projected to develop between 2018 and 2028. The chart “Skills Gap for New Jobs by 2028” follows the analysis and illustrates the educational gap identified.

· The Area is expected to experience an 18 percentage point skill gap by 2028.

· Overall, to meet the projected developing needs of employers for newly created jobs, 66.8% of the workforce must possess an education above a high school diploma through postsecondary education including credentials, certificates or degrees.

· Current attainment at those levels is estimated at 48.8% -- 18 percentage points below anticipated requirements.

· Based upon the projected 2028 estimated population of 218,324, an estimated 39,298 additional Area residents must obtain some level of education above a high school diploma. This estimate is compounded when factoring in the anticipated need for individuals with even higher educational levels discussed below.

· The differential between current attainment and employer need at the Bachelor’s level is 0.1%. At the Graduate Degree or Higher level (Master’s, Doctoral, or Professional Degrees), need is estimated at 3.7% versus a current attainment rate of 5.5%. While, on the surface, the need for educational attainment at these advanced levels appears minimal, this basic analysis may be misleading. Three important factors substantially impact the estimated need for these degree levels:

1. Variability of the data. The data utilized for this analysis are based upon projected need which is rooted in historical data. They are, by their very nature, estimates which can change as economic conditions and workforce demands evolve. As time progresses, it is probable that the need for higher degrees will increase.

2. Degree misalignment. The projected shortfall of less than one percentage point at the Bachelor’s degree level will be significantly compounded by a misalignment of degree specialty. The existence of a sufficient number of individuals possessing a Bachelor’s Degree fails to meet the needs of employers if those degrees do not provide the appropriate training necessary to fulfill job requirements. As an example, 10 individuals with degrees in management cannot meet the needs of employers requiring 10 engineers.

3. Surplus of graduate degrees. It must be considered that the 1.8 percentage point “surplus” of individuals who already possess a Graduate Degree or higher may place downward pressure on the need for Bachelor’s Degrees as more highly trained job seekers accept positions below their educational attainment. This may somewhat lessen the impact of the projected deficit and degree misalignment at the Bachelor’s degree level; however, it is also probable that these individuals may be drawn outside the Area or the state for employment better suited to their educational achievement rather than choosing to fill positions with lower educational requirements.

Given all of these factors, overall, there is a significant unmet need for highly skilled, highly educated residents in the Area. Of particular consideration to meet these needs must be increased mentoring and engagement with students at all levels to enhance educational outcomes as well as improved communication to ensure those students 1) make informed decisions regarding their long-term educational plans and 2) align themselves with future workforce needs.

Figure 7: Skills Gap for Newly Created Jobs by 2028, Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area


Critical Occupations List

The Oklahoma Office of Workforce Development (OOWD) continually monitors in-demand and critical occupations across the state. The annual state-wide Top 100 Critical Occupations List is longitudinal and focuses on job growth, acknowledging the need for extended time frames to achieve higher levels of education necessary to prepare potential job applicants for future employment. These jobs emphasize the state’s desire to 1) meet labor demands so that businesses and entrepreneurs involved in all industries can grow and prosper, and 2) Oklahoma citizens can maintain wealth generating employment.

Occupations must meet several criteria to be included on the list. The methodology includes:

· Vital to one of Oklahoma’s five key or four complementary/regional ecosystems (discussed later in this report);

· Projected growth across a 10-year timeline. Eliminates all occupations with projected negative growth (overall job loss);

· Wealth generation. Eliminates occupations with median hourly earnings of less than $12 per hour; and,

· Educational attainment levels: Eliminates all occupations requiring “no formal education” unless the occupation reports competitive median hourly earnings greater than $20 per hour.

To ensure representation of occupations from all educational levels, the list of remaining occupations is stratified by the typical entry-level educational requirement and the top ranked occupations are selected from each educational group.

Due to the reduced number of jobs and population in each Workforce Development Area, Area Critical Occupation lists are limited to the top 50, though the methodology remains unchanged. Table 3 contains the most recent Top 50 Area Critical Occupations for Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area as of March, 2018. The list is ordered by median hourly earnings, greatest to least.

Table 3: Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area Critical Occupation List, Revised March 2018

SOC

Description

2017 Jobs

2027 Jobs

Change

(2017-2027)

Median Hourly Earnings

Typical Entry Level Education

Work Experience Required

Typical On-The-Job Training

Annual Openings

January 2018 Unique Job Postings

For Educational Levels of High School Diploma or Less, there is a Certificate available

29-1069

Physicians and Surgeons, All Other

206

221

15

$109.97

Doctoral or professional degree

None

Internship/residency

8

250

11-9041

Architectural and Engineering Managers

59

66

7

$56.97

Bachelor's degree

5 years or more

None

5

16

11-3021

Computer and Information Systems Managers

89

103

14

$44.67

Bachelor's degree

5 years or more

None

8

20

11-3051

Industrial Production Managers

112

120

8

$43.33

Bachelor's degree

5 years or more

None

9

7

11-3031

Financial Managers

250

277

27

$41.97

Bachelor's degree

5 years or more

None

22

27

29-1171

Nurse Practitioners

57

72

15

$40.99

Master's degree

None

None

5

55

17-2051

Civil Engineers

91

109

18

$38.19

Bachelor's degree

None

None

9

9

11-9111

Medical and Health Services Managers

320

337

17

$37.08

Bachelor's degree

Less than 5 years

None

28

51

17-2141

Mechanical Engineers

98

109

11

$35.96

Bachelor's degree

None

None

8

11

15-1121

Computer Systems Analysts

156

187

31

$35.72

Bachelor's degree

None

None

14

21

13-1111

Management Analysts

138

158

20

$33.00

Bachelor's degree

Less than 5 years

None

15

14

11-9021

Construction Managers

102

122

20

$32.73

Bachelor's degree

None

Moderate-term on-the-job training

10

7

11-1021

General and Operations Managers

1,048

1,187

139

$32.00

Bachelor's degree

5 years or more

None

104

40

15-1132

Software Developers, Applications

61

78

17

$29.90

Bachelor's degree

None

None

6

32

15-1142

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

86

96

10

$29.75

Bachelor's degree

None

None

7

33

17-1011

Architects, Except Landscape and Naval

18

28

10

$29.61

Bachelor's degree

None


3

0

29-2032

Diagnostic Medical Sonographers

32

39

7

$28.44

Associate's degree

None

None

3

2

29-1141

Registered Nurses

1,545

1,696

151

$27.41

Associate's degree

None

None

102

314

13-2011

Accountants and Auditors

496

570

74

$27.33

Bachelor's degree

None

None

54

23

29-2011

Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists

78

86

8

$26.11

Bachelor's degree

None

None

6

25

25-1099

Postsecondary Teachers

717

771

54

$26.08


None

None

62

53

13-1051

Cost Estimators

78

95

17

$25.65

Bachelor's degree

None


10

0

49-1011

First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers

310

352

42

$25.62

High school diploma or equivalent

Less than 5 years

None

32

20

Certificate Available

47-2152

Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters

209

248

39

$25.57


None

Apprenticeship

28

8

47-1011

First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers

298

366

68

$25.20


5 years or more

None

39

9

13-1023

Purchasing Agents, Except Wholesale, Retail, and Farm Products

179

189

10

$24.76

Bachelor's degree

None


17

11

13-2072

Loan Officers

212

230

18

$23.89

Bachelor's degree

None


20

3

49-9041

Industrial Machinery Mechanics

188

241

53

$23.72


None

Long-term on-the-job training

24

2

47-2111

Electricians

414

545

131

$23.66


None

Apprenticeship

66

41

17-3022

Civil Engineering Technicians

21

27

6

$23.31

Associate's degree

None

None

3

0

19-3031

Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists

59

71

12

$22.93


None


5

6

17-3011

Architectural and Civil Drafters

23

29

6

$22.84

Associate's degree

None

None

3

1

29-2034

Radiologic Technologists

129

141

12

$22.70

Associate's degree

None

None

8

9

29-1126

Respiratory Therapists

49

55

6

$22.60

Associate's degree

None

None

3

13

15-1152

Computer Network Support Specialists

120

131

11

$20.35

Associate's degree

None

None

10

1

13-1151

Training and Development Specialists

77

88

11

$19.67

Bachelor's degree

Less than 5 years

None

9

20

25-4021

Librarians

123

139

16

$19.31

Master's degree

None

None

14

3

15-1151

Computer User Support Specialists

307

340

33

$19.07

Some college, no degree

None

None

27

35

33-3051

Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers

772

999

227

$18.48


None


80

2

51-4121

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers

443

513

70

$18.43


None


58

3

53-3032

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

856

944

88

$18.41

Postsecondary nondegree award

None

Short-term on-the-job training

107

7,705

49-3031

Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists

128

169

41

$18.19


None


17

10

33-2011

Firefighters

261

370

109

$17.29


None


32

1

47-2073

Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators

319

368

49

$17.07


None


42

2

29-2012

Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians

75

85

10

$15.97

Associate's degree

None

None

6

7

51-8031

Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators

264

311

47

$15.71


None


29

0

47-2031

Carpenters

244

289

45

$15.48


None

Apprenticeship

29

2

29-2041

Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics

268

319

51

$14.49


None

None

22

6

29-2056

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians

46

54

8

$13.07

Associate's degree

None

None

5

1

53-3033

Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers

334

379

45

$12.33


None


42

183

Certificate Available

Commuter Data

The U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program uses data from a variety of sources including the unemployment insurance program, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), and administrative data from censuses and surveys to create models estimating worker commutes for employment. Figure 8, “Commuter Patterns, Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area,” and Figure 9, “Inflow/Outflow Commuter Map” following the analysis summary, illustrate the commuter trends for residents of each Area county and for the Area as a whole. Data are quoted for 2015, the latest available from this source.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau models:

· Commuter outflow for the Area exceeds inflow by over 150%. While 24,250 individuals enter the Area for employment, over 62,600 exit. In terms of commuter inflow, all of the surrounding counties supply workers to the Area. Most of these workers reside west-northwest of the Area, with particular concentrations in Tulsa, Creek, and Rogers Counties. To a small degree, workers are also drawn across the eastern border of the Area from Benton, Washington, Crawford, and Sebastian Counties in Arkansas.

· Approximately 54% of workers leaving the Area are between the ages of 30 and 54. Those individuals predominantly work in the “All Other Services” industry classification (55%) and earn more than $3,333 per month (41%).

Like outbound commuters, commuters entering the Area for employment are between 30 and 54 years of age (52%) and work in the “All Other Services” industry (57%). Unlike outbound commuters, inbound commuters report lower earnings, typically between $1,251 and $3,333 per month (42%).

· Only 45.0% of Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area residents remain in the Area for employment; 55.0% commute outside the Area. Most of those individuals who commute outside the Area travel to the Tulsa metropolitan area for employment. Individuals in Adair and Sequoyah Counties cross the state line into Arkansas to work in Siloam Springs, or Fort Smith, respectively.

· Muskogee County is the only county in the Area that retains at least half of its residents for employment; 55.5% live and work in that county. This finding would be expected for a number of reasons. Muskogee County boasts the second largest overall population of any county in the Area and includes the largest metropolitan area. Job densities, as well as the number of payrolled business locations, are higher than in any other county in the Area. In 2016, Muskogee County employers reported the existence of 31,370 jobs at 1,550 payrolled business locations, approximately twice as many jobs/locations as second-ranked Cherokee County with 16,866 reported jobs at 773 locations.

· Wagoner County experiences the highest percentage of workers leaving the Area for employment at 81.3%, significantly more than the second highest rated Okmulgee County at 57.8% loss. Residents from both of these counties generally travel to Tulsa for employment.

· Commuting can no longer be strictly defined as physical relocation for employment. Data indicate that Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area residents who commute outside the Area to work do so not only in adjacent counties and states but across the nation. These data emphasize the growing trend of telework.

Figure 8: Commuter Patterns, Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD); On-The-Map

Figure 9: Inflow/Outflow Commuter Map, Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD); On-The-Map

Unemployment Rate

The term “unemployment” refers to individuals who are counted as participating in the labor force, but are not employed. This eliminates consideration of individuals who do not participate in the labor force such as individuals who are unable to work due to a disability, retirees, and individuals who may consciously choose not to work such as students. As a result, the unemployment rate cited focuses on individuals seeking, but not attaining, employment.

For this analysis, the average unemployment rates for individuals living in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area were compared to the average unemployment rates for the state of Oklahoma as a whole, and the nation, over a span of 5 years from January 2013 to January 2018. Note that county unemployment data are only available as non-seasonally adjusted. For this reason, in order to provide a direct comparison, state and national data are also cited as non-seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (BLS LAUS)

Figure 10: Unemployment in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area Versus State and Nation

· Between January 2013 and January 2018, the unemployment rate in the Area consistently trended above the statewide average. In comparison to the national rate, the Area generally trended lower until July 2015 when it overtook the national level. Since that time, the Area rate has remained higher, with a differential of up to 1.1 percentage points.

· During the five-year span examined, the unemployment rate for the Area peaked at 7.7% in January 2013 and reached its lowest level of 4.9% most recently in April and November 2017. The average unemployment rate for this time frame was 5.9%.

· Following an initial upswing in unemployment rates to 5.4% in January 2018, preliminary figures for February through April 2018 indicate the unemployment rate is trending downward, reaching a low of 4.5% in April.

Total Employment by County

In contrast to the unemployment rates discussed previously, this report section focuses on the number and percentage of individuals in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area who were employed. Employment data are cited for April 2018.

Figure 11: Total Employment in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area by County, April 2018

· In April 2018, 133,497 Area residents were in the workforce with 127,445 employed. This results in an employment rate of 95.5%, a percentage substantially higher than the 94.2% employment rate reported in the previous Area briefing for January 2017.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

· As well as possessing the greatest population, largest labor force, and most individuals employed in the Area, Wagoner County exhibits the highest employment rate at 96.3%.

· McIntosh experiences both the smallest labor force (6,860) and the lowest employment rate in the Area at 93.3%. As noted previously in this report, compared with other counties located in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area, McIntosh County possesses the lowest total population (19,629) and lowest population density (28 persons per square mile). Despite these figures, the employment rate has increased since the 91.2% reported in January 2017.

· In comparison with the employment figures reported in the 2017 Area briefing, every county has increased the employment rate with the greatest increase in McIntosh County.

Labor Force Participation

As indicated in the Unemployment Rate section of this report, not all citizens in the Area desire to work. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) measures the percentage of individuals who are employed or actively seeking work as compared with the overall population, age 16 and over. Figure 12 includes labor force participation rates for Area counties as well as for the State of Oklahoma. While Wagoner County matches the state LFPR at 58.6%, the remainder of the Area counties fall below the state. McIntosh County experiences the lowest labor force participation rate at 41.8%

Figure 12: Labor Force Participation Rates for Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area, by County

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Employment Sector Codes

Several of the analyses that follow are based upon data examined using NAICS employment sector codes. The following information is provided to enhance understanding of the framework of these analyses.

NAICS is the standard utilized by federal agencies to classify businesses to collect, analyze, and publish statistical data related to the United States business economy. NAICS uses a 6-digit coding system which is structured hierarchically, beginning with 20 broad economic sectors. Over 1,000 industries are then sub-categorized within these 20 sectors. Each industry within a sector shares distinguishing economic activities. The most recent version of the classification system was implemented in 2017. Additional information is available at www.census.gov/eos/www/naics. A list of the 20 NAICS sectors and the types of industries included can be found in Appendix B at the end of this document.

Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Codes

Additional analyses that follow are based upon data examined utilizing SOC occupational codes. The following information is provided to enhance understanding of the framework of these analyses.

The SOC system is used by Federal statistical agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the purpose of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data. All workers are classified into one of 840 detailed occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, detailed occupations are combined to form 461 broad occupations, 97 minor groups, and 23 major groups. Detailed occupations in the SOC with similar job duties, and in some cases, skills, education, and/or training, are grouped together. Recently, the 2018 system for SOC was implemented, replacing the 2010 version. Additional information is available at www.bls.gov/soc/. A list of the 23 major groups comprising the 2018 SOC system, as well as examples of the 97 included minor groups can be found in Appendix C at the end of this document.

Top Employment Sectors

The following list outlines the top 10 sectors in the Area in number of jobs available. Government is the top sector, employing approximately 29,700 residents, followed by Retail Trade which employs 10,829. The tenth-ranked sector in the Area is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting, (formerly Crops and Animal Production), which employs 1,801 individuals, only 6.1% as many as employed in the top-ranked Government sector.

Though the top 10 employing industry sectors remained the same, several changes occurred within the industry rankings since the last Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area Brief was issued in April, 2017:

· While Government remained the top employer in the Area, Retail Trade overtook Health Care and Social Assistance as the second-ranked employing industry. The latest data for 2018 indicate Health Care and Social Assistance industries currently employ 376 fewer Area residents than Retail Trade.

· Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, previously ranked eighth, dropped to tenth, overtaken by employment in the Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services and Finance and Insurance sectors.

Table 4: Top 10 Employing Industry Sectors in the Area

NAICS Sector Group

Sector

2018 Jobs

90

Government

29,707

44

Retail Trade

10,829

62

Health Care and Social Assistance

10,453

31

Manufacturing

8,170

72

Accommodation and Food Services

6,832

23

Construction

3,393

81

Other Services (except Public Administration)

2,527

56

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

2,161

52

Finance and Insurance

2,108

11

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

1,801

Source: EMSI 2018.2

Average Earnings by Sector

Annual employee earnings, averaged by sector, are examined in this section of the report. A chart, titled “Average Earnings by Sector, Top 10 Earning Sectors in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area versus State of Oklahoma,” follows the analysis.

· The average earnings for all top 10 sectors in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area are below the average earnings for the same sector statewide. The greatest disparity in earnings is found in the Mining, Quarrying and Oil and Gas Extraction sector which exhibits a 137% difference between earnings in the Area and the statewide average. The smallest differential in earnings is found in the Manufacturing sector, a difference of 1.9%. Overall, on average across all top 10 sectors, statewide earnings are 35.9% greater than Area earnings.

· The Utilities sector reports higher average earnings than any other sector in the Area at $121,596. This is approximately 10% below the statewide average for the same sector of $133,268.

· Despite ranking third in overall numbers of individuals employed, Health Care and Social Assistance fails to rank in the top 10 earnings for the Area. Earnings for this sector, ranked thirteenth, are $38,639 annually.

· Government, the sector employing the highest number of Area residents, ranks only sixth on the earnings scale. The average earnings per job for a Government sector employee are $54,564.

· Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing, an industry included in the Manufacturing sector, reports the highest average earnings in the Area at $252,477; however, only 28 jobs were reported in this industry in 2018. Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation, an industry included in the Utilities sector, ranks second at an average of $152,426 annually. While significantly larger than the Pharmaceutical manufacturing industry noted above, employment in this industry is still limited at 181 jobs in 2018.

Figure 12: Average Earnings by Sector, Top 10 Earning Sectors in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area versus State of Oklahoma


Average Earnings by County

· The average annual earnings in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area as well as the average annual earnings for each Area county are below the average for the state of Oklahoma. Average annual earnings for the Area as a whole are $44,881; while average earnings for the state of Oklahoma are $54,560. This represents a gap of 21.5%.

· At $49,663, Muskogee County ranks first in average earnings. This figure represents a 10.6% increase over the Area average but a 9% decrease from the state average. Sequoyah County exhibits the lowest average earnings at $35,286 – 27% below the Area average. When a direct comparison is made between Sequoyah County and Muskogee County, there is a 40% differential.

· As previously indicated, residents of Adair County working outside the Area typically commute to Siloam Springs, in Benton County, Arkansas for employment; residents of Sequoyah County commute to Fort Smith in Sebastian County, Arkansas; and those individuals residing in the counties on the western edge of the Area, particularly Wagoner and Okmulgee Counties commute to Tulsa. Not only is the job density higher in those employment destinations, so too are the earnings. Earnings for Sebastian County, Arkansas average $49,746 annually as opposed to $35,286 in Sequoyah County, a differential of 41%. Earnings in Benton County, Arkansas are even higher, at $66,605 per job annually. These average annual earnings exceed those in Adair County by 60% and Tulsa County, at $58,439, averages 26% above Wagoner County and 33% above Okmulgee County earnings. Muskogee County, with the highest average earnings in the Area of $49,663, still falls below all of these competing job markets.

Source: EMSI 2018.2

Figure 13: 2018 Average Earnings by County, State and Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Top Occupations by Number of Jobs

The table that follows illustrates the prevalence of jobs in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area.

· The top 10 occupations represent 17,471 jobs; 20.3% of the total jobs reported in the Area.

· The most prevalent job in the Area is Cashiers. In 2018, 2,948 jobs were reported in this classification with median hourly earnings of $9.01. Retail Salespersons is the second ranked occupation with 2,362 jobs and median hourly earnings of $10.63.

· Eight of the top 10 occupations require the completion of a high school diploma or less. The occupation of Registered Nurses requires the completion of an Associates degree while Nursing Assistants must complete a postsecondary nondegree award.

· The second-ranked job category in the Area, Retail Salespersons, exhibits the greatest potential for growth by 2028, increasing by 317 jobs – a growth rate of 13.4%. Likewise, the occupation of Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food, is also expected to gain 13.4%, equaling 237 new jobs. Waiters and Waitresses is the only job category among the top 10 for which employment is anticipated to decline by 2028, losing a minimal (-12) positions.

Table 5: Top Occupations by Number of Jobs in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Occupation

2018 Jobs

2028 Jobs

Change


Education or Experience Level

Cashiers

2,948

3,140

192

$9.01


Retail Salespersons

2,362

2,679

317

$10.63


Office Clerks, General

1,791

1,912

121

$11.56


Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

1,766

2,003

237

$8.34


Personal Care Aides

1,608

1,724

116

$8.48


Registered Nurses

1,550

1,681

131

$27.35

Associates degree

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive

1,473

1,552

79

$12.68


Nursing Assistants

1,344

1,418

74

$10.63


Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

1,324

1,440

116

$10.93


Waiters and Waitresses

1,304

1,292

(-12)

$8.82



Top Paying Occupational Groups

For this analysis, individual occupations are aggregated and reported by Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) major group. The table that follows highlights the top paying occupational groups by median hourly earnings.

· The top 10 occupational groups include 27,333 individual jobs; 31.7% of the total jobs reported in the Area.

· All of the top 10 highest paying occupation groups fall below the state median hourly earnings, though the differential for the group of Education, Training, and Library Occupations is only $0.01 per hour. The greatest differential in earnings is found in the major group of Legal Occupations where the Area median hourly earnings fall below the state-wide level by 17%.

· Management Occupations report the highest median hourly earnings in the Area at $33.72; however, this figure is still 10% below the Oklahoma statewide median hourly earnings for the same occupational group.

· The fourth-ranked Legal Occupations provides comparatively high Area median hourly earnings of $25.90 but there are fewer employment opportunities with only 416 jobs reported. Likewise, the fifth-ranked Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations offers competitive median earnings at $25.02 per hour, but only 481 jobs are available.

· Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations are ranked 10th in the Area with median hourly earnings of $16.88. This is 15% below the state level and only one-half the earnings of the top-ranked Management Occupations.

· The top three occupational groups in the Area, ordered by the number of jobs represented, are Office and Administrative Support Occupations (12,598 jobs), Sales and Related Occupations (8,011 jobs), and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (8,343 jobs). While these three major groups represent 28,952 jobs and 33.6% of the total jobs in the Area, none are included in this list due to low median earnings ranging from $8.75 to $13.19 per hour.

Table 6: Top 10 Highest Paying Occupational Groups in the Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

SOC Code Group

Occupation Group

2018 Jobs

Area Median Hourly Earnings

State Median Hourly Earnings

11-0000

Management Occupations

3,975

$33.72

$37.11

17-0000

Architecture and Engineering Occupations

898

$32.32

$34.66

15-0000

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

995

$26.96

$30.49

23-0000

Legal Occupations

416

$25.90

$30.21

19-0000

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

481

$25.02

$25.46

13-0000

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

3,400

$24.98

$27.61

29-0000

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

5,326

$23.48

$25.55

25-0000

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

6,184

$17.85

$17.86

21-0000

Community and Social Service Occupations

2,106

$17.27

$18.70

49-0000

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

3,550

$16.88

$19.52


Ecosystems Impact on Occupations and Salaries

Oklahoma has identified five key, in demand, industry clusters known as “ecosystems” which provide the state with a competitive advantage in a global economy. They exhibit significant potential for employment growth and provide wealth generating employment opportunities. The five key ecosystems’ demand industries produce or provide similar goods and services and therefore have similar needs in workforce, infrastructure, and economic development policy. These ecosystems include Aerospace and Defense, Agriculture and Biosciences, Energy, Information and Finance, and Transportation and Distribution.

In addition to the five statewide ecosystems, four localized complimentary ecosystems important to regional economies have been identified, including Construction, Education, Health Care, and Manufacturing. A summary table of ecosystem data pertinent to the Area is provided for ease of ecosystem comparison, followed by an analysis of each individual key and complimentary ecosystem.

Table 7: Ecosystem Comparison, Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Ecosystem

Estimated Net Job Growth (2018-2028)

Ecosystem Growth Rate (2018-2028)

Average Annual Earnings

Comments

Aerospace and Defense

184

6.4%

$46,484

Agriculture and Bioscience

406

8.0%

$49,974

Energy

80

3.4%

$78,293

1) Highest average earnings

Information and Financial Services

161

5.9%

$57,705

Transportation and Distribution

440

13.6%

$52,967

1) Second highest rate of growth.

Construction

1,178

13.7%

$53,926

1) Highest rate of growth.

2) Most newly created jobs.

Education

(-38)

(-0.4%)

$41,512

1) Only ecosystem predicted to decline.

2) Second largest employing ecosystem in number of jobs.

Health Care

757

5.9%

$41,812

1) Largest employing ecosystem in number of jobs.

Manufacturing

353

9.8%

$68,459

1) Second highest average earnings.

Aerospace and Defense.

In 2018, there were 2,854 jobs in the Aerospace and Defense Ecosystem in the Area with average annual earnings per job of approximately $46,484. By 2028, employment within this ecosystem is projected to grow to 3,038, a net increase of 184 jobs and a growth rate of 6.4%.

The list below, ordered alphabetically by occupation, highlights a few of the occupations employed by industries within the Aerospace and Defense Ecosystem in the Area. It should be noted that these positions are not limited to employment within the Aerospace and Defense Ecosystem, but rather, may be in demand by many other sectors, industries, and ecosystems across the state.

Table 8: Sample Aerospace and Defense Ecosystem Occupations

SOC

Occupation



49-3011

Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians

$28.40


51-4011

Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic

$18.19


51-2022

Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers

$12.14


51-1011

First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

$23.75

Less than 5-years experience

11-1021


$32.01

Bachelor’s degree

51-9061

Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers

$17.79


49-9041

Industrial Machinery Mechanics

$23.72


51-4041

Machinists

$19.92


51-2092

Team Assemblers

$11.75


51-4121


$18.44



Agriculture and Bioscience.

In 2018, 5,102 jobs were reported in the Agriculture and Bioscience Ecosystem in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area with average annual earnings per job of $49,974. By 2028, employment within this ecosystem is projected to increase by 8.0%, adding 406 newly created jobs to the Area.

The list below, ordered alphabetically by occupation, highlights some of the occupations employed by industries within the Agriculture and Bioscience Ecosystem in the Area. These positions are not limited to employment within this particular ecosystem, but rather, may be in demand by many other sectors, industries, and ecosystems across the state.

Table 9: Agriculture and Bioscience Ecosystem Sample Occupations

SOC

Occupation



45-2091

Agricultural Equipment Operators

$11.98


45-2092

Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse

$10.24


45-2093

Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch and Aquacultural Animals

$9.45


51-1011


$23.75


51-3092

Food Batchmakers

$12.74


53-3032


$18.41


53-7051

Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators

$12.85


53-7062


$10.93


51-9196

Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

$19.99


51-3023

Slaughterers and Meat Packers

$11.42



Energy.

In 2018, there were 2,321 jobs in the Energy Ecosystem in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area with average annual earnings per job of approximately $78,293, the highest average earnings of any ecosystem in the Area. By 2028 employment within this ecosystem is projected to grow to over 2,400, increasing by a net 80 jobs; a growth rate of 3.4%.

The list below, ordered alphabetically by occupation, highlights a few of the occupations employed by industries within the Energy Ecosystem in the Area. It should be noted that these positions are not limited to employment within this ecosystem, but rather, may be in demand by many other sectors, industries, and ecosystems across the state.

Table 10: Energy Ecosystem Sample Occupations

SOC

Occupation



51-4011

Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic

$18.19


51-2022


$12.14


49-9051

Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers

$20.54


51-1011


$23.75


11-1021


$32.01

Bachelor’s degree

51-9061

Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers

$17.79


53-7062


$10.93


51-4041

Machinists

$19.92


51-2092

Team Assemblers

$11.75


51-4121


$18.44



Information and Financial Services.

In 2018, there were 2,741 jobs in the Information and Financial Services Ecosystem in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area. By 2028, that figure is expected to rise to 2,902 an increase of 161 new jobs and 5.9% growth rate. The average annual earnings per job for the ecosystem are $57,705.

As may be expected, entry-level educational requirements trend much higher in this ecosystem that some others. One-half require a bachelor’s degree while an additional occupation, Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks requires the completion of some college credits.

The list below, ordered alphabetically by occupation, highlights some of the occupations employed by industries within the Information and Financial Services Ecosystem in the Area. It should be noted that these positions are not limited to employment within the Information and Financial Services Ecosystem, but rather, may be in demand by many other sectors, industries, and ecosystems across the state.

Table 11: Information and Financial Services Ecosystem Sample Occupations

SOC

Occupation



13-2011

Accountants and Auditors

$27.35

Bachelor's degree

43-3031

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks

$15.53

Some college

43-4051

Customer Service Representatives

$12.37


11-3031

Financial Managers

$41.99

Bachelor's degree

43-1011

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers

$19.25

Less than 5 years experience

11-1021


$32.01

Bachelor's degree

43-4131

Loan Interviewers and Clerks

$13.39


13-2072

Loan Officers

$23.89

Bachelor's degree

41-3031

Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents

$19.10

Bachelor’s degree

43-3071

Tellers

$11.32



Transportation and Distribution.

In 2018, there were 3,224 jobs in the Transportation and Distribution Ecosystem in Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area with average annual earnings per job of approximately $52,967. By 2028, employment within this ecosystem to 3,664, an increase of 440 new jobs. With a growth rate of 13.6%, by a slim margin, this ecosystem is projected to exhibit the second highest rate of growth, second only to the regional/complementary ecosystem of Construction at 13.7%.

The list below, arranged alphabetically by occupation, highlights a few of the occupations employed by industries within the Transportation and Distribution Ecosystem in the Area. It should be noted that these positions are not limited to employment within this particular ecosystem, but rather, may be in demand by many other sectors, industries, and ecosystems across the state.

Table 12: Transportation and Distribution Ecosystem Sample Occupations

SOC

Occupation



43-4051

Customer Service Representatives

$12.37


11-1021


$32.01

Bachelor’s degree

53-3032


$18.41


53-7051

Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators

$12.85


53-7062


$10.93


53-3033

Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers

$12.33


53-4011

Locomotive Engineers

$22.70


53-4031

Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters

$21.65


41-4012

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products

$22.64


51-2092

Team Assemblers

$11.75



Construction (Regional/Complementary).

As discussed previously, Construction is a regional/complementary ecosystem, and with 8,569 jobs reported in 2018 is the third largest employing ecosystem in the region. The average annual earnings per job in the Construction ecosystem were reported as $53,926. These average earnings reflect a significant increase from the 2016 earnings figure of $42,781.

By 2028, employment is projected to increase to 9,747. Approximately 1,178 new jobs will be created, a growth rate of 13.7% -- the most new jobs created and the largest growth rate of any ecosystem in the Area.

The list below, arranged alphabetically by occupation, highlights some of the occupations employed by industries within the Construction regional complementary ecosystem in the Area. It should be noted that these positions are not limited to employment within Construction, but rather, may be in demand by many other sectors, industries, and ecosystems across the state.

Table 13: Construction Ecosystem Sample Occupations

SOC

Occupation



47-2061

Construction Laborers

$13.20


51-2022


$12.14


47-2111

Electricians

$23.66

Apprenticeship

47-1011

First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers

$25.22

5 years or more experience

51-1011


$23.75

Less than 5 years experience

11-1021


$32.01

Bachelor's degree

51-4041

Machinists

$19.92


47-2152

Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters

$25.60

Apprenticeship

51-2092

Team Assemblers

$11.75


51-4121


$18.44



Education (Regional/Complementary).

The regional/complementary ecosystem of Education accounted for approximately 9,800 jobs in 2018. Average annual earnings per job of $41,512 represents a significant drop from the $51,536 reported in 2016. This change may be attributable to many factors, including a loss of jobs in high-earning positions such as Education Administrators or a decrease in the median hourly earnings as more highly-paid senior teachers leave the profession, replaced by less experienced, lower-earning educators.

The Education Ecosystem is the only ecosystem in the Area projected to decline by 2028, losing an estimated (-38) jobs, a loss of (-0.4%). Many of these job losses are anticipated to affect teachers at a variety of levels as well as support personnel such as cafeteria cooks.

Like the Information and Finance Ecosystem, Education requires relatively high levels of typical entry-level education. Seven occupations require the completion of a Bachelor’s degree or higher including Master’s and Doctoral degrees. An additional occupation requires some college credits.

The list below, presented in alphabetical order by occupation, highlights some of the occupations employed by industries within the Education Ecosystem. Many of the occupations within Education are extremely specialized but may still be in demand from other sectors, industries, and ecosystems across the state.

Table 14: Education Ecosystem Sample Occupations

SOC

Occupation



53-3022

Bus Drivers, School or Special Client

$10.13


21-1012

Educational, Guidance, School, and Vocational Counselors

$19.73

Master’s degree

25-2021

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education

$19.41

Bachelor’s degree

25-2022

Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education

$20.01

Bachelor’s degree

25-1099

Postsecondary Teachers

$26.11


25-2031

Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education

$20.53

Bachelor’s degree

25-6014

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive

$12.68


25-2052

Special Education Teachers, Kindergarten and Elementary School

$19.97

Bachelor’s degree

25-3098

Substitute Teachers

$8.78

Bachelor’s degree

25-9041

Teacher Assistants

$9.17

Some college


Health Care (Regional/Complementary).

Health Care is also considered a regional/complementary ecosystem and, as the largest ecosystem employer in the region, is very important to Eastern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area. Nearly 13,000 jobs were reported in 2018 in industries included in the ecosystem in the Area, with average annual earnings per job of approximately $41,812. By 2028, employment within this ecosystem is projected to increase to 13,598, a net increase in employment of 757 jobs, equal to a growth rate of 5.9%.

While the list contains one occupation requiring a Bachelor’s degree and one requiring an Associates degree, over half require the completion of a post-secondary nondegree award. These awards are usually characterized as vocational or industry-recognized certification.

The list below, organized alphabetically based on occupation, highlights some of the occupations employed by industries within the Health Care regional/complementary ecosystem in the Area. Like Education, many of the occupations within the Health Care sector are highly specialized; however, it must be remember

oklahomaworks.gov · web viewoccupations (8,343 jobs). while these three major groups represent...

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