Document ofThe World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: 89096-AFR

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

PROJECT PAPER

ON A

PROPOSED ADDITIONAL GRANT

FROM THE NILE BASIN TRUST FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$5.0 MILLION

AND THE COOPERATION IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS IN AFRICA TRUST FUND

IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 13.0 MILLION

TO THE

NILE BASIN INTIATIVE

FOR THE

NILE COOPERATION FOR RESULTS PROJECT

June 25, 2014

Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Disaster Risk Management Unit (AFTN2)Sustainable Development Department

Africa Region

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit = USD

FISCAL YEARJuly 1 – June 30

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AF Additional FinancingAFCRI Africa Regional Integration UnitAfDB African Development BankCFA Cooperative Framework AgreementCIWA Cooperation in International Waters in AfricaCMU Country Management UnitCSO Community Social OrganizationsDRC Democratic Republic of the CongoDSS Decision Support SystemEN Region Eastern Nile RegionENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional OfficeENSAP Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action ProgramERR Economic Rates of ReturnESIA Environmental and Social Impacts AssessmentESMF Environment and Social Management FrameworkFYs Fiscal YearsHIS Hydro-meteorological Information SystemIDA International Development AssociationIFRs Interim Financial ReportsIWRM Integrated Water Resource ManagementM&E Monitoring and EvaluationMSIOA Multi-Sectoral Investment Opportunity AnalysisMOU Memorandum of UnderstandingNBDFNBI

Nile Basin Development ForumNile Basin Initiative

NBTF Nile Basin Trust FundNCORE Nile Cooperation for ResultsNEL Region

Nile Equatorial Lakes Region

NELSAP-CU

Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit

NFP National Focal PointNGO Non-Governmental OrganizationNile-COM Council of Ministers of Water Affairs in the Nile Basin CountriesNile-SEC Nile Basin Initiative SecretariatOP/BP Operational Policy/Bank ProcedureORAF Operational Risk Assessment FrameworkPAD Project Appraisal DocumentPCRs Physical and Cultural Resources

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PDO Project Development ObjectivesRAP Resettlement Action PlanSAPs Subsidiary Action ProgramsSMM Sio-Malaba-Malakisi sub-basinSSEA Strategic Social and Environmental AssessmentSVP Shared Vision ProgramWRD Water Resources DevelopmentWRM Water Resources Management

Vice President: Makhtar DiopCountry Director: Colin Bruce

Sector Director: Jamal SaghirSector Manager: Jonathan Kamkwalala

Task Team Leader: Eileen Burke

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NILE BASIN INITIATIVE

ADDITIONAL FINANCING FOR NILE COOPERATION FOR RESULTS PROJECT

CONTENTS

Project Paper Data Sheet

Project Paper

I. Introduction

II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing

III. Proposed Changes

IV. Appraisal Summary

Mandatory Annexes

1. Revised Results Framework and Monitoring Indicators

2. Operational Risk Assessment Framework

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AFRICA

NILE COOPERATION FOR RESULTS (NCORE) PROJECT

ADDITIONAL FINANCING DATA SHEET

Basic Information - Additional Financing (AF)Country Director: Colin BruceSector Manager/Director: Jamal SaghirTeam Leader: Eileen BurkeProject ID: P147218Expected Effectiveness Date: March 31, 2014Lending Instrument: Technical Assistance LoanAdditional Financing Type: Grant

Sectors: Water, Sanitation, and Flood Protection; and Public Administration, Law, and JusticeThemes: Environment and Natural Resources Management; Social Development, Gender and Inclusion; Water Resources Management; Environment Policies and Institutions; and Participation and Civic EngagementEnvironmental category: AExpected Closing Date: 30 April, 2017Joint IFC: NoJoint Level: N/A

Basic Information - Original ProjectProject ID: P130694 Environmental category: A – Full AssessmentProject Name: Nile Cooperation for Results Project

Expected Closing Date: 31 DEC 2015

Joint Level: N/ALending Instrument: Technical Assistance Loan

Joint IFC: NoFragility or Capacity Constraints [ ]Financial Intermediary [ ]Series of Projects [ ]

AF Project Financing Data[ ] Loan [ ] Credit [ X] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other:Proposed terms:

AF Financing Plan (US$m)Source Total Amount (US $m)

Total Project Cost: Cofinancing: Borrower: Total Bank Financing: Nile Basin Trust Fund

Cooperation in International Waters in Africa Trust Fund

New Recommitted

0 0

5.0013.00

18.000

Client InformationRecipient: Nile Basin InitiativeResponsible Agency: Nile Basin Initiative SecretariatContact Person: Eng. Teferra Beyene, Executive DirectorTelephone No.: +256 417 705 177Email: nbisec@nilebasin.org

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Recipient: Nile Basin InitiativeResponsible Agency: Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program – Coordination UnitContact Person: Mr. Antoine Sendama, Regional CoordinatorTelephone No.: +250 083 07334Email: nelcu@nilebain.orgRecipient: Nile Basin InitiativeResponsible Agency: Eastern Nile Regional Technical OfficeContact Person: Dr. Yosif Ibrahim, Officer in ChargeTelephone No.: +251 11 646 1130Email: entro@nilebasin.org

AF Estimated Disbursements (Bank FY/US$m)FY 2014 2015 2016 2017Annual 5.0 2.0 6.5 4.5Cumulative 5.0 7.0 13.5 18.0

Project Development Objective and DescriptionOriginal project development objective: The Nile Cooperation for Results Project development objective (PDO) is to facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin. The PDO is not changed by the proposed Additional Financing.

Original project description: The project consists of three components, each of which provides customized support to facilitate activities in each of the three NBI Centers— the Nile Secretariat (Nile- SEC), the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit (NELSAP- CU), and the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO). The support takes into account the historical evolution, comparative advantage, strategic plans and mandates of each of these Centers.

Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis. This Component is supporting the Nile-Sec in its two core functions of facilitating cooperation and water resources management.

Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region. This Component is supporting NELSAP-CU in its efforts to identify and prepare strategic cooperative investments in the Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL) region.

Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile Region. This Component is supporting ENTRO in promoting cooperation among Eastern Nile riparian countries in a challenging hydro-political environment.

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Safeguard and Exception to PoliciesSafeguard policies triggered:Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01)Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04)Forests (OP/BP 4.36)Pest Management (OP 4.09)Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11)Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10)Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12)Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37)Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50)Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60)

[X] Yes [ ] No[X] Yes [ ] No[X]Yes [ ] No[X]Yes [ ] No[X]Yes [ ] No[X]Yes [ ] No[X]Yes [ ] No[X]Yes [ ] No[X]Yes [ ] No[ ]Yes [X] No

Is approval of any policy waiver sought from the Board (or MD if RETF operation is RVP approved)?Has this been endorsed by Bank Management? (Only applies to Board approved operations)Does the project require any exception to Bank policy?Has this been approved by Bank Management?

[ ]Yes [X] No

N/A

[ ]Yes [X] NoN/A

Conditions and Legal Covenants:Financing Agreement Reference Description of

Condition/CovenantDate Due

TF-13766; Article V:5.01 (a) Project Implementation Plan Developed and adopted.

January 1, 2013 – Complied with

TF-13766; Article V:5.01(b) Letters of Commitment signed by the authorized representatives of at least two NBI Centers.

February 11, 2013 – Complied with

TF-13766; Article V:501(c) Environmental and Social Management Framework adopted and disclosed.

January 1, 2013 – Complied with

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I. Introduction

1. The Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE) project is a US$15.3 million, three-year project, funded through the Nile Basin Trust Fund (US$13.8 million) and Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) trust fund (US$1.5 million). NCORE was designed to build on previous work of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and the comparative advantage of its centers. The development objective of the project is “to facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin.” The project comprises of three components, each being carried out by one of the NBI centers, the Secretariat (Nile-SEC), the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit (NELSAP-CU) and the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO).

2. The proposed additional grant funding of US$18.0 million to NCORE is to be financed through the Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) ($5.0 million) and Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) trust fund ($13 million), bringing the total project size to US$33.3 million. The additional financing would also extend the project and the CIWA grant to the project until April 30, 2017. This Additional Financing is sought in order to scale up the development effectiveness of the project, by delivering additional results through the implementation of new activities that are in line with the original project objectives.

II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing in the amount of US$18.0 million

COUNTRY CONTEXT

3. The Nile River Basin is a vital natural resource and economic lifeline for its 237 million inhabitants, in eleven riparian countries (Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda). The basin is characterized by a largely untapped and tremendous potential for development, but unevenly distributed stages of poverty, economic and political growth. Each Nile riparian country has ambitious national development plans for poverty alleviation that encompass development of the river’s resources. All these much-needed investments are largely to be made at the national level; however, the benefits and sustainability of many of these investments need to be enhanced from a regional perspective. If unilateral plans are made and implemented without consideration of the larger river basin context, there is a risk that some of the national investments in water-related sectors could be sub-optimal and foreclose future development opportunities.

SECTORAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT

4. Recognizing the need for basin-wide planning and cooperative development, riparian countries have formed the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), an intergovernmental entity committed to fostering cooperation, water resource management and water resources development. Over more than a decade, the NBI has grown to a well-established and largely successful regional institution, providing the only Nile basin-wide platform for regional dialogue in transboundary water issues. NBI has identified, prepared or facilitated approximately US$ 1.4 billion of investments under implementation, with an additional US$4.8 billion under preparation. The NBI has created a strong technical foundation for water resources management and development, including a shared knowledge base and tools to enable countries to understand the implications

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of their actions on neighbors and opportunities for managing risks and realizing joint opportunities.

5. This progress continues to be made despite complicated hydropolitics outside of this project, including issues related to the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) and unilateral development. These developments have intensified the need for NBI to strengthen its strategic and technical communications arm in order to demonstrate benefits of regional cooperation, and to provide customized services to the diverse stakeholders of the institution, so that water resources management and development work can continue.

6. In addition, with the 2011 independence of the Republic of South Sudan and its subsequent induction as a member of the NBI in July 2012, new needs have emerged. There is need to build the capacity of the government in water resources management and development, so that it may more fully engage in transboundary water affairs in the region. A recent assessment of the country’s water sector, conducted by the World Bank1, has identified priority areas and activities needed to support planning and implementation of investments in development, and utilization and management of water resources, including:

Development of the water resources knowledge base,

Environmental management capacity building,

Integrated catchment planning for water allocation, infrastructure investment, and water management, and

Water resources management sub-sector strategies.

NBI can provide services to meet the above mentioned challenges.

OBJECTIVE, DESIGN AND SCOPE OF THE ORIGINAL PROJECT

7. NCORE activities are part of the NBI’s longer-term strategic plans, which were designed around the realization that sustainable development of the Nile waters requires a wide spectrum of interventions – in information tools, analytical products, awareness raising and cooperative platforms – with a variety of actors and stakeholders. This is being achieved through the provision of targeted technical assistance to the NBI member countries and broader stakeholders, to facilitate cooperative activities, improve integrated water resources planning and management, and identify and prepare studies of potential investments of regional significance. NCORE became effective on February 11, 2013. The three-year, US$15.3 million project is currently scheduled to close on December 31, 2015. Given the distribution of funding in the current project, with the NBTF grant being larger than the CIWA grant, the bulk of activities under the current project are scheduled to end in late 2014, with the closure of the NBTF.

8. The NCORE project is made up of three components that are implemented by each of the NBI centers (Component 1 implemented at the Nile Secretariat (Nile-SEC); Component 2 implemented at the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit

1 Rapid Water Sector Needs Assessment and a Way Forward, May 2013

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(NELSAP-CU); and Component 3 implemented at the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO)). These three components are:

9. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis (US$5.3 million). This Component is supporting results at Nile-SEC related to its two core functions of facilitating cooperation and water resources management:

10. Sub-Component 1.a: Strengthening the platform for basin-wide cooperation. This sub-component is supporting the facilitation of basin-wide activities to promote cooperation, including events for governance bodies, national focal points and stakeholders to facilitate riparian awareness, dialogue, and resource mobilization. It will produce two flagship research papers providing evidence-based analysis to illustrate the benefits of cooperation. Efforts are being made to improve NBI linkages to relevant national and other regional/international-level institutions, including government agencies, academia, Community Social Organizations (CSOs), media, private sector, development partners, and the general public.

11. Sub-Component 1.b: Enhancing capacity and understanding for cooperative management and development of water resources in the Nile Basin. This sub-component is enabling the NBI to improve the web portal, technical knowledge and analytical foundation needed for cooperative water resources development and management in the Basin. The sub-component is supporting analysis on Nile issues, technical and operational support for the newly developed Nile Basin Decision Support System (DSS) modeling tools, as well as publication of a series of technical briefs and technical workshops. This component will also include design and tender documents for a real-time hydro-meteorological system.

12. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region (US$5.2 million). This Component is supporting NELSAP-CU in its efforts to identify and prepare potential strategic cooperative investment opportunities:

13. Sub-Component 2.a: Identifying and promoting strategic opportunities to advance cooperative water resource management and development. This sub-component is supporting the identification and advancement of new potential water resources investments in the NEL region through in-house analysis and development of “project profiles”, as well as investor and resource mobilization events, to secure financing and country buy-in of these projects. This component also includes the production of technical briefs to highlight analysis of earlier NELSAP studies and analysis, other publications to increase awareness of hydrological issues in the NEL region, and an enhanced NELSAP website.

14. Sub-Component 2.b: Preparing transformative investment projects of regional significance. This sub-component is undertaking two major studies related to potential cooperative water-resources development investments in the NEL region. This includes one feasibility study in irrigation and watershed management and the associated Environmental and Social Impact Assessment, located in the Muvumba River in the Eastern Province in Rwanda. The project being studied could expand irrigation to 13,000 ha and generate 3 MW of electricity. This sub-component is also conducting a power sector expansion study for South Sudan, including the water–related aspects of the incorporation of South Sudan into the regional power

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system. This study is expected to provide a basis for the power sector master planning that South Sudan is planning to undertake in late 2014, outside this project.

15. Component 3: (US$4.5 million). This component is supporting ENTRO in promoting cooperation among Eastern Nile riparian countries.

16. Sub-Component 3.a: Strengthening the knowledge base and analytical framework for Eastern Nile water resources planning and management. The sub-component supports development and further enhancement of ENTRO tools to help advance understanding of droughts and flash floods in ENTRO’s flood forecasting system; enhancing partnerships with stakeholder networks through training for technical specialists in government, academia and others, continuation of the highly successful visiting professionals (internship) program; and undertaking studies for water resource planning. The sub-component also funds the development of an Eastern Nile climate portal, to be added to ENTRO’s recently launched web portal. It plans to provide a foundation for improved understanding of issues specific to the Eastern Nile sub-basin by ensuring that the Eastern Nile knowledge base is publicly available through expanded website and new web portal.

17. Sub-Component 3.b: Promoting sustainable development and growth in the Eastern Nile. This sub-component is promoting holistic approaches to water development, including to better take into consideration environmental and social issues. First, this sub-component is supporting ENTRO in training and technical assistance to two governments to prepare future investments in watershed management in previously identified sites. ENTRO has identified the regional watershed “hotspots” of regional importance, and will be working with the governments to help them prepare interventions to reverse degradation and to improve livelihoods, in the Fincha’a and Chemoga Watersheds in Ethiopia, and in the Kessela in the Telkuk locality and in the upper Atbara watershed in Sudan. The second key activity aims to improve dam safety for the sub-basin, given the on-going and planned hydropower development in the Eastern Nile countries. ENTRO has held consultations to design the dam safety program, and held the first two trainings of the series, with multiple workshops and sessions for feedback on draft framework and guidelines scheduled for 2014. Finally, several trainings on environment and social issues have been provided under this activity.

Implementation Status of Parent Project

18. The project became effective in February 2013, and since then, significant progress has been made by each of the three centers of the NBI. The project is rated Moderately Satisfactory for both Implementation Progress and Progress towards the Development Objective, as required by the OP 10.00 requirement for Additional Financing. There is compliance with the grant covenants including audit and financial management reporting requirements. Given progress to date the Project is expected to achieve its development objectives. The PDO-level project indicators are:

Percentage of key stakeholders who rate NBI services associated with this project to promote regional cooperation as “satisfactory” or higher;

Percentage of users of publically available NBI tools, data, or analysis associated with this project who rate services as “satisfactory” or higher;

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Value (US$) of potential investment opportunities for regional water resources management or development advanced under this project;

Direct project beneficiaries (number), of which female (percentage); and Number of people trained on trans-boundary issues.

19. Achievements to date include:

20. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis

Sub-Component 1.a: Strengthening the platform for basin-wide cooperation. The Nile-SEC has conducted training workshops to improve understanding and functionality within riparian governments and promote cooperation among riparians. The Nile-SEC kicked off the project by organizing a Nile Day event in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia pulling together participants from government, academia, and other stakeholders, to discuss and demonstrate the advantages of regional cooperation. Aiming to increase its visibility and ensure that transboundary perspectives are integrated at the national level, the Nile-SEC took concrete steps to strengthen its relationship with National Focal Points (NFPs), to identify strategic challenges to their functionality and to develop a capacity building program for the NFPs. The Secretariat’s Water Resources Management department has carried out consultation workshops to help set its analytical agenda under the project. The SEC has developed plans for two major publications under the project, to draw upon the data and analysis already collected by the NBI, which will be packaged in a variety of formats for a range of audiences, including high level ministry officials, technical officials, and the general public.

Sub-Component 1.b: Enhancing capacity and understanding for cooperative management and development of water resources in the Nile Basin. The online Nile DSS helpdesk has been launched, to provide DSS users a platform for accessing updates, reporting issues, and to receive needed advice. Under NCORE, Nile-SEC has distributed the DSS software together with an initial set of models and data to 9 NBI countries. A first round of DSS trainings have been conducted at national level (9 countries) and at regional level (3 regional trainings). In line with its data sharing and exchange policies, the NBI received additional river flow data from Ethiopia and Uganda as well as climate data from Uganda, which is being quality assured for inclusion into the DSS. A high-level consultation workshop was conducted with the Nile-TAC members to identify strategic water resources issues. Based on this consultation, a working paper has been prepared on priority issues that shall inform the technical analyses to be conducted under component 1b.

Communications and dissemination of NBI knowledge products has remained a priority of the NBI. The SEC has begun to develop an integrated knowledge portal, in response to a clear demand for its products. Use of the existing Nile Information System has increased by 35 percent in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period last year, an increase of 10,000 website hits per month. The Nile-Sec has continued producing operational Actual Evapotranspiration estimates for the entire Nile Basin. Based on these estimates, indicative water balance and areas of the basin with opportunities for water conservation have been identified.

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21. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region

Sub-Component 2.a: Identifying and promoting strategic opportunities to advance cooperative water resource management and development. NELSAP-CU has used the NCORE to continue its work to prioritize new investments of regional significance, by applying the Nile Decision Support system, the Multi Sectoral Investment Opportunity (MSIOA) tool, and other past studies. Several projects are being considered for investment preparation to feasibility stage under the Additional Financing (more information is provided below). In addition, the center began planning for a resource mobilization event, targeted for 2014.

Sub-Component 2.b: Preparing transformative investment projects of regional significance. Following meetings with representatives from South Sudan’s Ministry of Electricity and Dams in March 2013, NELSAP has begun preparing elements of a Power Development Plan in South Sudan and Integration of South Sudan’s Hydropower Potential in Regional Power Grid study as a way of exploring the power supply in the country (including hydropower), which are the priority types of generation for development, and how the country can best be integrated into the regional grid. The analysis will help the Government of South Sudan and its neighbors most optimally develop power transmission and generation. It is being conducted as an input to more comprehensive least cost power generation and expansion planning to be conducted by the Government, as recommended by the World Bank. NELSAP-CU has begun work to procure a firm to conduct a feasibility study of the Muvumba project in Rwanda, as well as a separate Environmental and Social Impact Assessment of the Project. This 13,000 ha irrigation project was identified as a significant opportunity for development as part of the Kagera River Basin Management work, and was analyzed from a regional perspective as part of the NEL Multi-Sectoral Investment Opportunities Analysis. The irrigation and watershed management project is expected to impact 20,000 farmers and would serve a total of 168,000 people in the area through provision of food, electricity and water supply if the project proceeds. Additional anticipated benefits of the project include flood control, year-round crop cultivation and improved transportation routes.

22. Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile Region

Sub-Component 3.a: Strengthening the knowledge base and analytical framework for Eastern Nile water resources planning and management. ENTRO has made enhancements of a public domain web portal, designed to communicate technical and awareness material on the river system, including releasing regular flood forecasting bulletins. ENTRO is working to enhance its successful regional flood forecasting system, and has issued flood forecasts during the flood season. ENTRO also held a regional Flood Forum in Sudan in late September, to assess and analyze the causes of the 2013 flooding that was most severe in Sudan, to discuss possible improvements to flood forecasting capabilities, and to recommend additional flood preparedness activities. ENTRO has

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initiated modeling of multi-commodity trade to examine the benefits of enhanced EN cooperation. The project is supporting the development of an analytical framework for the EN Multi-Sector Investment Opportunity Analysis (MSIOA), to help Eastern Nile Stakeholders understand trade-offs between sectors in meeting countries’ ambitious development agendas, and to help countries identify new projects for regional preparation and implementation. ENTRO has continued to enhance its knowledge partnerships with stakeholder networks including government, power utilities, and academia and has continued its highly acclaimed visiting professionals program. New groups of young professionals from EN Universities and Ministries have been selected to work in four NCORE activities (EN Floods, Dam Safety, Benefits of Cooperation, and EN MSIOA). Through the project, ENTRO has initiated training for modeling tools in the EN countries, including a week-long training conducted in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan and another in South Sudan. The project has also funded the launch of the climate portal on ENTRO’s website. ENTRO will soon be posting tools and data that can be used by Eastern Nile countries to understand the possibility of increased hydro-variability.

Sub-Component 3.b: Promoting sustainable development and growth in the Eastern Nile. Through initial stakeholder meetings, ENTRO has come to know the importance of dam safety in the Eastern Nile and it is engaging dam planners and operators from ministries and utilities in the Eastern Nile countries to provide capacity building in dam safety assessments, and in issues related to regional dam safety frameworks and guidelines. Finally, ENTRO is working to help national and local authorities in Ethiopia and Sudan prepare the next round of watershed management projects through the project. It has already been influential in conducting training of trainers in Ethiopia, in best practices in watershed management.

RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING

23. The Additional Financing is being sought for scaling–up the development effectiveness of the project, by adding additional activities and results that are in-line with the initial project design and by extending the project until April 2017. The Additional Financing would allow the inclusion of a provision for retroactive financing of up to US$3.6 million (allocated to the respective NBI Centers pro rata within each of the grants), from November 1, 2013 onwards.

24. Due to the limited amount of funding originally available for the NCORE project, many of the activities, associated results, and timeline for their completion were significantly reduced in scope. The activities proposed under the AF build upon the original design of the project and are sought to improve the magnitude of results of NCORE by:

a. Advancing regionally agreed investments in the Nile Equatorial Lakes region. NELSAP-CU had identified a large pipeline of regionally significant development projects that the NEL countries have agreed to move forward. The additional financing will be used to increase the number of investment projects being prepared to feasibility level to seven. Possible projects targeted for preparation under this project include interventions in irrigation, watershed management, small-scale hydropower, and drinking water.

b. Strengthening stakeholder access and engagement. This will include increasing access to NBI’s data, knowledge, tools and analysis, including increasing public-domain

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communication to improve awareness of key issues and options in the Nile Basin (e.g. web portals, social media), and targeted communication products to sub-sets of stakeholders. This will also provide additional services, trainings and information to stakeholders, such as Permanent Secretaries and NBI National Focal Points, to help them better engage in transboundary affairs.

c. Providing critical additional expertise (e.g. environmental and hydropower analysis, power interconnection and trade) for inclusion in NCORE activities and deliverables, and expanding on the ongoing successful outreach programs (e.g. the young professionals/internship program at ENTRO) throughout the NBI. This will contribute towards the improvement of the pipeline of potential investments of regional significance through enhanced options assessment modeling in both the Eastern Nile and Nile Equatorial Lakes sub-basins.

d. Providing an integrated NBI support package to South Sudan to help build additional capacity to manage its water challenges (e.g. floods) and enhance its water resources development. The Additional Financing would allow the NBI to provide the Government of South Sudan and universities with much needed capacity building, tools and information, in-line with the comparative advantages of each of its centers (e.g. of Nile-SEC in Hydromet design and DSS use, of NELSAP-CU in investment scoping and preparation, and of ENTRO in flood management and climate resilience). The South Sudan activities proposed would also help initiate activities highlighted in the World Bank South Sudan Rapid Water Sector Needs Assessment and a Way Forward report finalized in May 2013.

25. The additional funding of $18.0 million being sought includes different sources, namely, $5.0 million through NBTF’s remaining funds, $10 million from CIWA (originally proposed for a stand-alone project for the NEL region), and an additional $3 million from CIWA proposed to extend support for results at all three NBI centers until 2017. The following describe how these different sources were brought together to constitute a single AF proposal:

a. NBTF funding of US$5.0 million. Since approval of the NCORE project, all other remaining NBTF-funded projects have closed, leaving a balance of unallocated funds in the NBTF. Contributing Partners to the NBTF have endorsed the use of these remaining funds before NBTF closure in June, 2015. Given the economies of scale in implementation, and reduced transaction costs for processing and execution of planned activities, it is proposed that $5.0m of the remaining NBTF funds are made available as additional financing to this project. It would not be practical or desirable to do a separate stand-alone Project using these NBTF resources in the time available. The NBI is mindful of the timescale remaining for utilization of these funds prior to December 31, 2014 (the last possible closing date for NBTF Grants). As such, the disbursement capacity of the NBI centers has been assessed. Based on average expenditure rates over the last 5 years as well as the NBI’s work plans for this period, the NBI has the capacity to deliver proposed results from the additional financing within the timeframe.

b. CIWA funding of US$10 million. At the request of the NEL countries and with the support of the CIWA Advisory Committee, the Bank started preparing a stand-alone

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NELSAP-CU project for investment preparation of several projects initially identified in previous NELSAP-CU work. The project would build on NELSAP CU’s capacity in advancing water resources development in the region, and support to NELSAP-CU is expected to yield strong results in line with the CIWA objectives of supporting climate resilient growth. However, because this project’s activities and results areas are aligned with those of NCORE, and fall within the scope of NCORE’s PDO, it is more efficient to include these project activities with the additional financing package, to benefit from economies of scale. As such, $10 million proposed for the activities originally envisioned for NELSAP under its stand-alone project are included in this Additional Financing.

c. CIWA funding of $3 million to extend support for results at the NBI centers through some of 2017, while the NBI works towards sustainability. The Nile Council of Ministers has agreed to a financial strategy for the NBI, by which all of the NBI’s Minimum Functionality (core institutional costs) would be fully funded by NBI’s member countries by 2018. While NBTF funding to the NBI ends in December 2014, the additional financing from CIWA seeks to extend the NCORE project through April 2017, so that it can pay for results associated with some of the core costs of the NBI, until it is self-sufficient. The NCORE additional financing would only support results connected to institutional support gaps that are not covered by the commitments from riparian countries and/or management fees from other NBI projects. Any future CIWA support to the NBI would be contingent on compliance with the NBI’s financial strategy.

III. Proposed Changes

26. The Additional Financing would enhance the effectiveness of NCORE by expanding the three existing components being implemented by the three NBI Centers to include additional activities and results. As the new activities fall within the descriptions of the original activities in the original legal agreements for the project, no changes to the legal agreements are needed in this regard. Descriptions of the new activities include:

27. Component 1: Advancing Nile Basin-Wide Cooperation and Analysis (Nile-SEC). US$2.913 million in Additional Financing. New activities and results under this component will relate to both sub-components of the project: strengthening the platform for basin cooperation for sustainable water resources management and development, and enhancing capacity and understanding for cooperative management and development of water resources in the Nile Basin.

a. Enhancing Access to NBI Tools, Knowledge, Data and Communications. Improved information and tools are needed to understand and enable better management of the river system, conduct analysis and awareness raising activities, and to understand and prepare projects in a regional context. Additional funds will allow packaging of NBI knowledge for specific stakeholders, in various formats, possibly including: policy briefs, best-practice notes, podcasts, and other targeted communications. In addition, the NBI will expand access to its modeling tools with the Additional Financing. The DSS will be expanded to include two additional public-domain modeling tools; a Climate Change data manager added to support visualization and processing of gridded climate change data,

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and an expanded tradeoff analysis toolset. In addition, NBI will supply additional licenses of the DSS and training to key stakeholders.

b. Strengthening Stakeholder Engagement. The Additional Financing will support activities related to Stakeholder engagement. This includes activities related to the Nile Basin Development Forum, consultations, events for resource mobilization, and other activities for NBI clients. NBI will more proactively engage National Focal Point Offices. In addition, support visits to selected countries will be undertaken by Nile-SEC staff to provide customized services to the countries, and to further explore ways of strengthening the service delivery to the countries.

c. Strengthening Delivery of Cross-Center Results. Given the semi-autonomous nature of the NBI centers, effective joint planning, implementation and monitoring is critical, to ensure that the activities of the centers produce coherent and meaningful results in an efficient manner. Additional financing will enable thematic groups to meet throughout the projects, to monitor progress of their joint and coordinated activities.

d. South Sudan. Additional Financing support to Nile-SEC activities for South Sudan is also included under this component, and is described in greater detail below.

28. Component 2: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region (NELSAP-CU). US $12.544 million in Additional Financing. New activities and results under this component will relate to both sub-components of the project. Highlights of these new activities include:

a. Enhancing Access to NELSAP-CU Tools, Knowledge, Data, Communications and Dissemination. New activities under the AF include expanding the center’s knowledge base and strengthening partnerships and outreach activities by providing technical assistance, capacity building and training for countries in NELSAP tools and knowledge products; strengthening outreach to stakeholders benefiting from investment projects prepared through NELSAP; and the development of communications materials to help countries understand and agree on new investments of regional significance. The new activities also include dissemination of NELSAP projects outputs to the countries and capacity building support for South Sudan. The support will also be used to help prepare materials and to work with countries and donors, to plan for resource mobilization activities, including investor round tables and meetings with relevant Ministries including Finance.

b. Improving Responsible Power Development and Trade in the NEL region. NELSAP-CU proposes to undertake additional activities to facilitate responsible development and use of water resources for power. As part of the power sector expansion study for South Sudan that NELSAP-CU is performing under this project, NELSAP-CU proposes to use additional funds to enhance its analysis, including providing additional projections of power demand to be used in planning for the integration of South Sudan into the regional grid (which will have implications for the planning and sequencing of its hydropower development). If it is not possible to undertake this additional work in South Sudan

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because of security considerations, the funding will likely instead be used for capacity building activities.

c. Preparation of additional investments with regional benefits. Under sub-component 2.b, NELSAP seeks to prepare additional water resources investments in the NEL region. In particular, this will include feasibility studies and ESIAs to be conducted primarily for irrigated agriculture projects prioritized by the riparian countries (building on pre-feasibility and detailed identification work), including irrigation expansion of up to 55,000 ha2, concomitant power generation of around 30MW and bulk water supply improvement; and (ii) related social and environmental safeguards assessments for these investments (i.e., ESIAs, RAPs, etc). The potential project sites being considered for preparatory study under the AF are detailed in the table below.

Table 1. Details of Potential Projects for Preparation

Project Country Benefits Details of Potential Projects

Mara sub-basin

Mara Irrigation Scheme

Tanzania Irrigation: 8,340 haStorage: 30 MCMHEP: 6MW

• Increasing the area under irrigated agriculture by 8,340 ha. It will contribute to 12% of the planned area for development of regionally significant irrigation potential (estimated at 66,000 ha) by the MSIOA study

• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food production system

• Direct employment 40,000 people; indirect employment 32,000 people

• Rural Electrification through electricity generation of an estimated 6 MW firm power

Kagera sub-basin

Ngono Irrigation and Watershed Management project

Tanzania Irrigation: 11,342 haHEP: 14.5 GWh/yrStorage: 25 MCM

• The proposed scheme will cover 14 sites, 7 sites in Misenyi District and 7 sites in Bukoba District for the benefit of 34 villages

• Accelerated expansion of areas covered by irrigation estimated at 11,000 ha,

• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food production system

• Drainage and flood control infrastructure as well as Conservation of watersheds.

• Direct employment of 55,000 people and Indirect employment of 44,000 people

• Electricity generation (hydropower) of 14.5GWh/ per year for rural electrification

Kabuyanda Irrigation and Watershed Management project

Uganda Irrigation: 4,300 haHEP: 0.1 MWStorage: 10 MCM

• Irrigation expansion of over 4,300 ha, benefiting an estimated 8,406 farmers in the sub counties of Kabuyanda and Kikagate.

• Direct employment to 23,000 people and Indirect employment, 18,000 people

2 The projects for preparation with this grant financing are still under discussion with the countries. It is unlikely that the full amount of this irrigation potential could be prepared with these funds, given the cost of needed feasibility studies. It should be noted that while this amount is modest by global standards, the development of this irrigation would almost double the existing irrigation in the NEL region by about 48,000 ha.

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Project Country Benefits Details of Potential Projects• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food

production system• Small HEP generation and water supply infrastructure, as

well as conservation of watersheds• It will contribute towards Uganda’s Vision 2040 which

includes improvement in modernized and commercial agriculture.

Ruvyironza Irrigation and Watershed Management project

Burundi Irrigation: 14,674 haStorage: 372.6 MCMHEP: 22 MW

• The project will improve the living conditions and incomes of rural populations in the 5 provinces of Cankuzo, Gitega, Karuzi, Muyinga and Ruyigi in Burundi, and the surrounding watersheds.

• The project will contribute towards increasing irrigated agriculture by 14,674 ha. It will contribute 41% of the optimal regionally significant potential irrigation area identified in the NEL MSIOA study (35,000 ha by 2035) without impacting the water resources

• 29,348 farmers will benefit in the provinces of Cankuzo, Gitega, Karuzi, Muyinga and Ruyigi

• Direct employment 70,000 people, while Indirect employment, 56,000 people

• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food production system

Sio-Malaba-Malakisi sub-basin

Sio-sanga Irrigation and Watershed Management and

Kenya Irrigation: 1,790 haHEP: 0.05 MWStorage: 6.2 MCM

• Proposed dam 18m high (capacity of 6.2 MCM, Catchment Area: 43.8 sq km)• Area water stressed expected to get worse as the

population increases and as demand by various water using sub-sectors increases. Region periodically has food insecurity.• Will contribute towards Kenya’s Vision 2030 which

recognizes water storage as a viable option for agriculture (includes improvement in modernized and commercial agriculture) and power production for food security• More water efficient and climate and disaster resilient food

production system• Municipal water supply, livestock and fisheries production• Enhanced household incomes and livelihoods, environmental

protection (flood control), boosted agricultural production to match the increasing human populations and market demand at regional level and social economic development

Nyabanja Uganda Irrigation: 5500haHEP: 47 kW;Storage: 170 MCM

SMM catchment suffers severe floods during the rains, and devastating drought and crop failure during the dry seasons.

Proposed dam:15m high (capacity: 170 MCM, Catchment Area: 1495 sq km)

Secondary benefits: livestock watering and domestic use to the area (Water Supply for 12000 people)

Flow regulation for drought/flood control Restoration of degraded upper sub-catchment. Rural Infrastructure

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d. Additional financing under this sub-component also includes support to water sector planning for South Sudan, which is expounded upon below.

29. Component 3: Promotion of Sustainable Development and Planning in the Eastern Nile Region (ENTRO). US$2.543 million in Additional Financing. New activities and results under this component will relate to both sub-components of the project: strengthening the knowledge base and analytical framework for Eastern Nile water resources planning and management; and promoting sustainable development and growth in the Eastern Nile. Highlights include:

a. Expansion of On-Going Analysis. In its consultations with NCORE stakeholders, countries have requested additional analysis from NCORE. With Additional Financing, ENTRO will be able to expand its analysis on hydropower and environmental aspects within the Multi-Sector Investment Option Analysis, the State of the EN Basin Report, and the State of the EN Climate Report.

b. Enhancement Development and Dissemination of Knowledge Products. Current plans under the subcomponent are geared towards further development of a publicly accessible Web-Based Climate Change Portal, with access to data sets and analysis on climate change in the Eastern Nile Basin, including environmental and social indicators. The center’s web-based portal has already been launched and it is currently being populated with ENTRO’s suite of toolkits, models, databases, and knowledge products, of which a Climate Change Portal will constitute a portion, in addition to a mobile data “app.” In addition, ENTRO is proposing to use AF to provide training to government, academic and other key stakeholders on the portal’s tools. ENTRO will also package more of its analysis for specific stakeholder groups. Additional funding is required for effective corporate/strategic communication, including workshops on the benefits of EN cooperation and the threats posed by unilateral action.

c. Strengthen and Maintain Eastern Nile Partnerships. ENTRO has a strong track record of outreach programs and partnerships with professional networks in the EN (e.g. visiting professionals/internship program). Feedback gathered from the NCORE Project Launch Workshop in February 2013 has indicated that these programs are highly successful as they allow ENTRO to carry out capacity building activities for new generations of professionals from the four EN countries on transboundary issues of importance in the region; and they expand ENTRO’s in-house expertise in water resources management. Additional Financing will enable ENTRO to sponsor additional young professionals (interns) from government and universities. Additional Financing has been proposed for two more consultative workshops with regional partners and to ensure effective dissemination of project outputs.

d. Supporting Sustainable Development: Dam Safety and Watershed Management. Through the NCORE project, the NBI has held several consultations with stakeholders on its Dam Safety activities. ENTRO has received requests to expand its currently planned activities – including consultations and capacity building programs - to additional governmental stakeholders, as well as Eastern Nile universities. ENTRO lacks the financing to meet this demand in the current NCORE project, and would be challenged to

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meet the demand even with the level of proposed Additional Financing. As such, with the Additional Financing, ENTRO has proposed funding enhanced workshops for consultations on and dissemination of the Dam Safety Guidelines being developed under this project, as well as additional dam safety training activities

Figure 1. Overview of Additional Financing, by component

30. Integrated South Sudan Support. As a new member in the NBI, South Sudan did not fully benefit from many of the NBI activities of the past decade. Scoping missions in December 2012 and May 2013 identified priority areas for support in water resources information and knowledge base, water resources development capacity building, and water resources management and planning.

31. The activities that NBI can provide to South Sudan in the identified priority areas present a win-win situation for NBI and South Sudan. Each NBI Center is uniquely positioned to provide South Sudan customized services that build capacity, upgrade the country’s water sector’s technical foundation, and better integrate South Sudan into NBI’s program.

32. With the Additional Financing, a portion of each Center’s budget will be dedicated to building capacity in South Sudan. The Nile-SEC will lead additional activities in strengthening the knowledge base and Water Resource Management capacity of the country. Specifically, Nile-SEC will lead in designing a Hydro-meteorological Information System (HIS) for the country, strengthen the geo-database of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, archive historical data available in Khartoum and Cairo, and make available Nile DSS licenses and trainings on the system’s use. NELSAP-CU will lead activities related to multi-sectoral investment opportunity

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Component 3 (ENTRO):• Knowledge Base and Analytical Framework– Providing Environmental and Hydropower inputs to

strategic investment studies– Enhancing knowledge, web services and dissemination– South Sudan Support– Strengthening Partnerships (EN internships,

consultations, training)• Sustainable Development and Growth in the Eastern Nile– Improving Dam Safety course development and

outreach– Strengthening Strategic communication

Component 2 (NELSAP CU):Strategic Opportunities

Training for countries in investment planning, MSIOA

Increased dissemination of knowledge, modeling

Advancing Transformative InvestmentsPrepare additional water resources

development projects up to feasibility and design level

South Sudan Support

Component 1 (Nile-Sec):Basin Cooperation Platform

Improving NBI communicationStrengthening National outreachEnhancing NBI Cross-Center Coordination

Capacity and Understanding for Coop. WR Dev. & Mgmt.Improving access to NB DSS tools and dataSouth Sudan Support

analysis for the entire country, to help the country understand sectoral trade-offs (at local, national and regional levels) in its development planning, and will lead training workshops on strategic water resources project development. ENTRO will organize workshops related to mainstreaming of environmental, social issues and safeguards and climate resilience into water resources management and development projects in South Sudan. ENTRO will also expand its flood forecasting system for South Sudan.

33. Costs by component (US$ million)

Table 2. Project Costs by Component

Component Original cost

Additional Financing -

CIWA

Additional Financing -

NBTF

Total Revised Project Size

1: Basin-wide Cooperation and Management - Secretariat

5.300 1.000 1.913 8.213

2: Sustainable Development - NEL

5.200 11.000 1.544 17.744

3: Sustainable Development - EN

4.500 1.000 1.543 7.043

Unallocated 0.300 0 0 0.300Total 15.300 13.000 5.000 33.300

IV. Appraisal Summary

Economic and Financial Appraisal34. The proposed additional financing activities will support the scaling up of NCORE activities to enhance their effectiveness, through additional training, dissemination, and preparation of new investment projects. The Additional Financing is justified from an economic and financial perspective in terms of the project’s development impact, the public sector provision of these services, and the World Bank’s value added. Further, the activities to be supported through this Additional Financing support the World Bank’s goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

35. Development Impact. The development impact and the economic and financial significance of such collaborative, sub-basin activities cannot be underestimated; far greater costs can be incurred as a result of non-cooperation.

36. The most readily quantifiable returns of the NBI’s work are those related to the advancement of investment projects. The NBI has already advanced over US$1.2 billion of investment projects in power transmission and interconnection, water storage, agriculture and flood forecasting, which are currently under implementation, with nearly $5 billion of additional investments under preparation. Activities proposed under this AF seek to further advance the pipeline of investment projects, through improving and enhancing project design, through

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resource mobilization, and by working with countries to gain agreement to advance investments of regional significance. The investment projects slated for preparation with this Additional Financing have been prioritized for development based on a number of factors, primarily, adherence with NELSAP objectives of poverty reduction, environment and social sustainability and economic development. Additional NELSAP criteria for natural resources management dictate that projects:

a. Have specific country defined goals and anticipated measurable results that are clearly stated;

b. Demonstrate benefits at a regional level;

c. Demonstrate ability to be up-scaled;

d. Demonstrate sustainable use of water resources;

e. Include commitment for significant public consultation and Stakeholder involvement; and

f. Exhibit economic and financial viability and sustainability.

37. The investment projects targeted for preparation have undergone financial and economic analysis at the identification/pre-feasibility level, and have Economic Rates of Return (ERRs) in excess of twelve percent or benefit cost ratios above 1.7. This Additional Financing will allow for additional feasibility study of the projects, to make sure that the potential future investments are viable and to optimize them from financial, economic, social and environmental perspectives.

38. In addition, the proposed Additional Financing will support further development of the knowledge base, including the tools and institutional capacity for upstream analysis that incorporates economic and financial considerations. This planning is critical in enabling efficient development and management of the shared water resource.

39. The project also provides capacity building support to the NBI member governments: public sector capacity is noted as a critical constraint to growth in a myriad of studies3. While calculating the Economic Rate of Return of this capacity building is difficult, given some of the longitudinal nature of the work, a recent independent evaluation of the Nile Basin Trust Fund found that the NBTF support through the NBI is moderately satisfactory in its efficiency in delivering support, as it minimizes transaction costs for fund administration. However, it also found that more technical capacity building would have further increased the trust fund’s efficiency.

40. Public Sector provision of the services provided through this project is also justified. In many cases, the knowledge and information services provided through the project are a global public good. Additionally, the World Bank has identified the need for more work to prepare infrastructure projects in the region, and notes that public expenditure for infrastructure in Africa

3 For example, see Levy, Brian and Francis Fukuyama, 2010. “Development Strategies. Integrating Governance and Growth.” The World Bank, PREM.

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in absolute terms is low compared to other regions.4 In the course of investment preparation through this project, the NBI will work with countries to determine whether any of the eventual investments being prepared under this Additional Financing are suitable for private sector involvement, thus setting the stage for possible private involvement in the future.

41. Public execution of this work is also warranted given the NBI’s unique position in the region. The NBI was created through negotiation between the countries, and exchange of data and information has also been carefully negotiated, thus overcoming the historic mistrust between the governments. The NBI is the only regional Nile entity where these specific agreements for data sharing between all of these countries exist, thus making the entrance costs for another actor to undertake this work prohibitively high.

42. The use of a public regional mechanism to implement this work is more efficient than undertaking this work at the national level because of economies of scale. Further, The NBI regional offices are able to pool national and local information, providing better access to regional information and analysis than would be available if the work were undertaken at the national level. The project also follows the recommendation of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, “to pursue regional integration to reduce infrastructure costs.”

43. Added value. The World Bank added value in financing this project comes through its convening power, as well as its long-standing experience with regional water management and development. For over 10 years, the World Bank has led a consortium of donors (ten of whom contribute to the NBI and four of which coordinate their activities in parallel) in their support for regional activities on the Nile. The use of a pooled mechanism for project delivery and financing increases efficiency.

44. Alignment with World Bank goals. The Additional Financing supports the World Bank’s goals of ending extreme poverty and increasing shared prosperity. Many of the NBI’s activities in this project have a focus on poverty reduction and income generation, often for the poorest of the communities. For example, the communities targeted to benefit from the investment projects being prepared through the Additional Financing include projects within the Mara Region, which has one of the worst food poverty rates in Tanzania, with 47% of households living below the poverty line; Kabuyanda in Uganda, where per capita income is estimated at $350/year and the literacy rate is 53%; and the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi region where access to electricity can be as low as 5%. The watershed management investments being prepared through this project address the degradation of natural resources, which many living under the poverty line rely on for their livelihood. Analysis of poverty and focus on livelihood improvement are central to the design of the investments supported by the NCORE project. Additionally, part of the project supports activities focused on minimizing exposure to external shocks from flooding, which disproportionately affect the poorer segments of the population living along the Nile.

Technical Appraisal45. Given that the new activities being added to the project are similar to the activities already being undertaken, there are no major changes to the previous technical appraisal. The

4 World Bank, 2009. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic.

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Nile basin riparian countries require a cooperative approach to unlock their development potential and manage evolving challenges. The knowledge base and analytical tools that have been developed under various NBI programs, and which are being updated and extended under NCORE, need to be made more accessible and customized to the needs of stakeholders. In addition, there is a need for more synthesis and dissemination of findings, especially analysis to respond to complex questions regarding the use of water resources in the basin, including projections of the costs of non-cooperation. Key water investments in the basin require substantial preparation activities, resource mobilization, and stakeholder cooperation, which will be facilitated by the NBI under this project.

46. Given the short time remaining to use the Additional Financing from the Nile Basin Trust Fund before the fund closes for NBI use on December 31, 2014, additional work has been undertaken with the NBI to ensure that the funds can be used responsibly in the remaining time. The inclusion of a retroactive financing clause in the Additional Financing will allow the centers to have advances to support the implementation of some project activities by the time of Additional Financing approval, if it is approved by the World Bank. Additionally, the following has been agreed among the three NBI Centers in order to deliver the planned additional activities in the limited time available:

a. Where possible, in house expertise and individual consultants will be used rather than consulting firms for substantive and technical inputs into NCORE products and workshops, in order to strengthen internal capacity;

b. The activities proposed for South Sudan will be implemented jointly by the three centers, each taking the lead on activities where they have the comparative advantage; and

c. Each center will closely monitor work plans to ensure delivery of all planned activities.

47. Part of the additional financing will be used to support results at the NBI centers, as the NBI works towards self-sufficiency. The NBI has developed a Financial Strategy to support financial sustainability, which has been adopted by its Member States. One of the elements of this strategy is dedicated to having countries meet the entirety of Minimum Functionality or “core costs” of the NBI by 2018, which will enable the NBI to operate its basic programs and sustain the most important capacities, systems and knowledge if no other source of fund is available. Core costs include expenses such as maintenance of critical staff, minimum office running costs, governance, coordination and donor liaison meetings, external audits, and NBI key reports and services.

48. Minimum functionality was calculated for the three NBI centers as $3.8 million annually: $1.8 million for Nile-SEC; $1 million for NELSAP-CU and $1 million for ENTRO. The following table shows the amounts expected to be received from governments towards minimum functionality, with contributions increasing to cover the minimum functionality of the institution by 2018.

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Table 3. Pledged country contributions to the NBI

Center/FY 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18Nile-SEC Country

Commitments900,000 900,000 1,450,000 1,450,000 2,000,000

Gap in core costs

900,000 900,000 350,000 350,000 0

NELSAP Country Commitments

470,370 470,370 790,740 790,740 1,000,000

Gap in core costs

529,630 529,630 209,260 209,260 0

ENTRO Country Commitments

342,000 506,499 670,998 835,497 1,000,000

Gap in core costs

658,000 493,501 329,002 164,503 0

Total Gap 2,087,630 1,923,131 888,262 723,763 0

49. As outlined in the Project Appraisal Document for this project, government ownership of the NBI and adherence to the committed financing schedule will serve as important “triggers” that must be met before any future coordinated support (beyond this Additional Financing) for the NBI from the CIWA Trust Fund is considered.

Implementation and Institutional Arrangements

50. The AF proposes to use the same Implementation and Institutional Arrangements under NCORE, including those for Financial Management and Procurement, to cover additional activities, and over the proposed extended length of NCORE.

Procurement

51. As the Project is implemented by a regional organization (the three centers of the Nile Basin Initiative), there is no specific procurement law or system to be referred as the recipient’s own public procurement system. Therefore the Procurement under the project will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s "Guidelines: Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits" dated January 2011; and "Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" dated January 2011, and the provisions stipulated in the Grant Agreement.

52. The PAD of NCORE released in December 2012 stipulates use of an updated harmonized Procurement Manual in undertaking the procurement activities, which since that time has been approved by the Nile Council of Ministers. Procurement of NCORE including the Additional Financing will be implemented in each of the three centers, namely; Nile-SEC, NELSAP-CU and ENTRO using the Bank’s guidelines and the NBI’s Harmonized Procurement Manual. At ENTRO, the “Provisional Procurement Manual issued, August 2009” is being used until the Harmonized Procurement Manual is approved for use by ENCOM. The provisional procurement manual will be replaced by the harmonized manual upon approval by the governance.

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53. The category “non-consulting services” will now be an allowable disbursement category for activities under the CIWA grant. This is already an allowable category under the NBTF grant. Since the approval of the original project, the CIWA Administrative Agreements have been amended to include non-consulting services as an eligible expenditure category, allowing this addition to take place.

54. It is expected that new upcoming contracts and ongoing contracts (which will be amended to include the Additional Financing) will be financed from the additional financing. In this case, the existing procurement plan will need revision to incorporate the new contracts and updating of milestones. New procurement plans have been prepared for the new contract items to be financed from the additional financing resources and will be disclosed.

55. Procurement reviews have been conducted for the project, both during supervision and as Post Procurement reviews. Several areas for strengthening have been identified for the client, including improved adherence to milestones in procurement plans, improved filing and management of records, improvements to contract monitoring system, and the need to approve a joint NBI procurement manual, as outlined at the time of original project Appraisal. Center-specific comments have been reflected here:

56. Component 1 – NBI SEC

a. The NBI SEC Procurement unit will execute the project procurement function. The Procurement Officer has experience of over 7 years executing a number of IDA managed Trust Funds, and has gained skills and improved in various areas, e.g. record keeping. While a few gaps remain, particularly in selection of Consultants, the Officer is adequately experienced for the NCORE AF. The Country Procurement Specialist will continue to provide guidance and training for the officer as well as staff in the NBI SEC as needs arise.

b. The risks identified were: (a) some user departments do not provide the Terms of Reference and Technical Specifications to the procurement officer in a timely manner to allow adequate lead time to process contracts resulting in delays in processing; (b) non-compliance to the IDA Selection of Consultants guidelines by either modifying contracts after No objection before contract signed, or signing a contract without IDA clearance; (c) non familiarity with IDA’s January 2011 Guidelines

c. The risks will be mitigated by: (a) The Procurement Unit, working with the Head of Strategic Planning will clarify the role of user departments and timing, and the Heads of Departments will make adequate monthly assessment to address delays; (b) Procurement Officer will take a lead in preparation of Individual Consultant contracts and ensure appropriate clearances are obtained prior to contract signing; and (c) Basic training on IDA January 2011 Guidelines.

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57. Component 2 – NELSAP-CU

a. The key procurement risks are: (i) Slow processing of procurement; (ii) moderate experience in the selection of consultants using World Bank procurement procedures; and (iii) Inadequate monitoring of contract implementation.

b. The proposed mitigation measures for identified risks are: (i) Establishment of a procurement tracking system to expedite the procurement process in conjunction with the procurement plan; (ii) NELSAP to keep records of provided comments on a given contract processing for future procurement processing/selection; (iii) IDA Procurement Specialist will continue to provide guidance to NELSAP Procurement Staff as needs arise; and (iv) Put in place an adequate contract monitoring system.

58. Component 3 – ENTRO

a. A brief Procurement review was conducted as part of preparation of this AF, and the aggregate risk for procurement has remained to be SUBSTANTIAL RISK at the NCORE. Some of the major procurement risks identified are: (i) lack of consistent implementation of Procurement Plans and less use of Procurement Plans as implementation monitoring tools and inefficiency in the implementation of the Procurement Plans; (ii) inadequate oversight by top management in providing the necessary directives and monitoring for the timely implementation of procurement activities; (iii) lack of good practices in terms of use of standard procedures in recruiting/selecting Individual consultants including negotiations norms on technical and financial proposals; (iv) lack of harmonized Procurement manual in all the 3 centers (ENTRO, NELSAP-CU and NILE-SEC) including a procurement committee in each center to provide oversight, (v) Procurement Record keeping and custody of deliverables and Goods needs improvement; (vi) the project procurement team is given additional responsibilities of HR management and as the result the core task of procurement is undermined; and (vii) project “Governance” challenges, that affects overall project procurement efficiency.

b. These risks will be mitigated by: (i) the Implementing Agency (ENTRO ) staff needs additional orientation on the implementation and monitoring of agreed procurement plans, as the procurement plan once approved is part of the legal agreement; (ii) strong commitment from the top management of ENTRO is paramount; (iii) the ENTRO Procurement Manual should include clear procedures on contracts negotiations disciplines and there should be defined protocol and accountabilities for tender evaluation and award tasks. Orientation should be provided to ENTRO staff in this regards; (iv) the harmonized Procurement manual in all the 3 centers (ENTRO, NELSAP-CU and NILE-SEC) shall be approved and implemented; (v) ENTRO has to introduce procurement monitoring and tracking system and basic contract management system, as agreed during project preparation; (vi) ENTRO needs to establish a protocol for Procurement Record keeping and custody of deliverables and Goods in acceptable and adequate standard; and (vii) ENTRO and its governance should continue to look for ways to minimize the effect of regional challenges outside the project on the governance of this project.

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59. The aggregate risk for procurement has remained SUBSTANTIAL.

Financial Management

60. A financial management assessment has been carried out for ENTRO, NELSAP CU and Nile Sec that will continue implementing the project under the additional financing arrangement. The assessment was done in line with the Financial Management Manual that was approved by the Financial Management Sector Board in March 2010.

61. The three implementing entities will continue to use the financial management arrangements laid down in the initial NCORE project. The project will use NBI’s harmonized Finance and Administration Policy Manual which sets out adequate FM policies and procedures. Budgeting arrangements are satisfactory except for ENTRO’s budgets not being approved on time by its governing body known as EMCOM as it has not been meeting as expected. This could delay the implementation of the project and will therefore need to be addressed. All the implementing entities have adequate computerized accounting software systems except that Nile-Sec will need to upgrade its Sun Accounting system as pointed out by their external auditors. The project now has an internal auditor on board but the internal audit function will need to be supported with a sufficient budget to carry out its duties based on an approved work plan by the audit committee. Accounting staffing requirements for all the implementing entities are satisfactory. Compliance with financial covenants has also been satisfactory with Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) and audit reports all submitted and up to date with no major issues arising. Additional Financing will have the same arrangements with NCORE with respect to submission of IFRs and audit reports.

62. Disbursement mechanism will remain the same as that of the NCORE project, that is report based disbursements will be used. Other applicable disbursement mechanism will be through reimbursements, special commitments such as letters of credit and direct payments. The same Designated and Project Accounts will be used for each of the implementing entities. The Designated Accounts will be denominated in United States Dollars (USD).

63. The conclusion of the assessment is that the three implementing entities have adequate Financial Management arrangements to meet the Bank’s requirements as per OP/BP 10.00 to ensure that funds are properly accounted for as they are utilized for purposes intended. The overall financial management residual risk rating is moderate and on-site supervision is expected to be done at least once a year with desk reviews done on the reviews of IFRs and audit reports.

Safeguards

64. The ESMF for this project has been updated to reflect the activities outlined under the Additional Financing.

65. As the specific project sites to be prepared under this project are not yet finalized, the TORs for these sites will be disclosed once the project has been prepared. The TORs for the Feasibility Study and the related ESIA for the Muvumba Project have been disclosed with the updated ESMF for the project.

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66. While the Additional Financing will only support technical assistance and no actual physical works will be undertaken through this project, some of the preparatory studies proposed by NELSAP-CU involve the study of potentially complex multipurpose storage infrastructure. Because of the complexity of projects proposed for preparation through this project (outlined in Section II – Component II), the safeguards category has been upgraded from B – Partial Assessment to A – Full Assessment.

67. Additionally, the following additional safeguards will also be triggered for the project:

OP/BP 4.09: Pest management. The project does not involve actual use of pesticides or agro-chemicals. However, as the potential investments being studied and prepared under this project include multipurpose storage reservoirs and irrigation components, any potential pest management related issue for these potential investments will be addressed on a due diligence basis in line with the project ESMF, including through ESIAs for any feasibility studies.

OP/BP 4.10: Indigenous Peoples. There is a possibility that investments under this project may be in areas in Kenya where Indigenous Peoples are present. The site specific ESIAs will examine the presence of indigenous populations. An Indigenous Peoples Planning Framework (IPPF) has been prepared for Kenya, in the event that any Indigenous Peoples are identified with the sub-project being prepared to feasibility and design level in Kenya. The IPPF (known as the Vulnerable and Marginalized Groups Framework) provides the overarching principles and guidelines to facilitate the preparation of Indigenous Peoples Plans (IPPs) as required.

OP/BP 4.11: Physical and Cultural Resources (PCRs). As the investments being prepared under this project (but not implemented) would involve earthworks during their possible eventual implementation, a chance finds procedure has been developed as part of the project ESMF. Site-specific ESIA’s completed under this project will entail the assessment of PCRs, in line with country-specific requirements for the management of PCRs.

OP/BP 4.12: Involuntary Resettlement. There is a potential that investments being prepared under this project (but not implemented) may eventually involve the acquisition of land, involuntary resettlement or restriction of access to legally designated parks and protected areas. Resettlement Policy Frameworks (RPFs) for each of the relevant countries have been prepared in the event that any interventions on selected sites result in the physical and/or economic displacement of people. A Terms of Reference for a Process Framework (PF) will be prepared in the event that restriction of access to parks and protected areas may result from project investments, although the likelihood of this is minimal. Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs) will be prepared in accordance to the provisions of the RPF as required.

OP/BP 4.36: Forests. Some of the investment projects being prepared (but not implemented) through this project could affect forest areas, including the Rwoho Central Forest Reserve, in relation to the Kabayanda multipurpose project on the Kagera River. Any identified impacts will be addressed according to the ESMF for the project, including the formulation of specific ESIAs.

OP/BP 4.37: Safety of Dams. Because the NELSAP-CU work will involve the feasibility study and design of dams, this safeguard has been triggered.

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68. NELSAP-CU is in the process of convening a panel of experts to provide advice on its work, in line with international good practice.

69. The Nile Cooperation for Results Project, which is financing the feasibility studies, designs, ESIA and RAP preparation for the investment projects under component 2b, does not contain financing for the implementation of the potential future investment projects. Neither NELSAP-CU nor the national governments have made a decision to proceed with the implementation of the investment projects, as the further study (financed through the NCORE project) is needed in order to make an investment decision. As such, the involvement of the World Bank in the investment projects beyond the financing of the Feasibility Study, Design, ESIA and RAP (through the NCORE project) is not yet known. For this reason, unless the Bank is involved in the financing of the eventual potential investment projects, the Bank will not supervise the implementation of the instruments prepared for the investments (including safeguards instruments) after the closure of the NCORE project.

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Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring

AFRICA: Nile Cooperation for Results ProjectResults Framework

Revisions to the Results Framework Comments/Rationale for Change

PDOCurrent (PAD) ProposedTo facilitate cooperative water resource management and development in the Nile Basin.

No change

PDO indicatorsCurrent (PAD) Proposed change*PDO1. Percentage of key stakeholders who rate NBI services associated with this project to promote regional cooperation as “satisfactory” or higher

Indicator continued, no change. End target increased to 70%.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

PDO2. Percentage of users of publically available NBI tools, data, or analysis associated with this project who rate services as “satisfactory” or higher

Indicator continued, no change. End target increased to 70%.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

PDO3. Value (USD) of potential investment opportunities for regional water resource management or development advanced under this project

Continued, no change to indicator. Targets increased. All centers can contribute to this indicator.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

PDO4. Number of people trained on transboundary issues

Indicator changed to: “Regional capacity to Engage on Transboundary Issues Strengthened (Number of people trained on transboundary issues), to reflect outcome level nature of indicator.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017. End targets increased to reflect longer project period.

PDO5. Direct project beneficiaries (% of which female)

Continued, no change to indicator. End targets increased to reflect longer project period.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

PDO6. Number of projected beneficiaries from work influenced by this project (including investments to be implemented in future)

New indicator. CIWA program indicator. Added to contribute to overall CIWA results framework.

Intermediate Results indicatorsCurrent (PAD) Proposed change*Component1a1. Number of major fora for regional/national dialogue between key stakeholders facilitated

Continued, no change to indicator. End targets increased to reflect longer project period.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

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Revisions to the Results Framework Comments/Rationale for Change

Compnent1a2. Number of Nile Basin tools, data and knowledge products made available /(of which public)

Continued, no change to indicator. End targets increased to reflect longer project period.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

Compnent1b1.Establishment of Water Resources Database at the Water Ministry in South Sudan

New Reflects Secretariat activities to build database for Water Information System in South Sudan

Component1b2. No of registered users of DSS user community

New Reflects amount of demand from clients for training from the NBI

Component 2a1: NELSAP-CU: Number of identified investment projects in power and water resource development approved for preparation by NELTAC

Continued, no change in indicator. Target increased to from 5 to 10

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

Component 2a2: NELSAP-CU: Number of knowledge products on priority sub-basin issues disseminated to key stakeholders

Continued, no change in indicator. Final target increased from 16 to 30.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

Component 2b1: NELSAP-CU: Number of investment projects undergoing major study through this project (Percentage of which includes analysis related to gender)

Revised from “pre-feasibility” to “major study.” End target increased to 8.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017 and to reflect additional budget. Includes power sector expansion plan in South Sudan and feasibility studies.

Component 3a1: ENTRO: Improved Eastern Nile regional flood and drought forecasting system made operational

Continued, no change to indicator. End targets increased to reflect longer project period.

Added increased targets for 2016-2017.

Component 3a2: Accessibility to real-time information and forecasts for improved flood management in South Sudan

New Added to reflect new work in South Sudan

Component 3a3: ENTRO: Number of hits to improved ENTRO knowledge products and analytical tools

Continued. End targets increased to reflect longer project period.

Wording clarified, to capture web, app, and other similar hits.

Component 3b1: ENTRO: Percentage of trainees who considered that the training will contribute to their work

Continued. Indicator will track number of all trainees, not only environmental and social trainees.

Component 3b2: ENTRO: Dam safety framework and guideline made available

Continued, no change

Component 3b3: Technical Capacity for Dam Safety increased for the Eastern Nile

New Will reflect completion and dissemination of new dam safety materials

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Revisions to the Results Framework Comments/Rationale for Change

Component 3b4: Number of water related investment projects influenced by project

New Includes significant investment projects which ENTRO has influenced through capacity building, training, experience, exchange, or investment project facilitation, identification, or preparation.

Component 3b5: hectares of watershed management influenced by ENTRO services

Continued, no change. However, level of ENTRO support for these hectares is expected to increase with the Additional Financing.

Includes projects improved by capacity building, training, experience, exchange, or investment project facilitation, identification, or preparation.

* Indicate if the indicator is Dropped, Continued, New, Revised, or if there is a change in the end of project target value

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REVISED PROJECT RESULTS FRAMEWORK

PDO Level Results Indicators

Cor

e

UOM5

BaselineOriginal ProjectStart(2012)

Progress To Date(2013)6

TargetsFrequency Data Source/

Methodology

Responsibility for Data

Collection2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PDO1. Percentage of key stakeholders who rate NBI services associated with this project to promote regional cooperation as “satisfactory” or higher

Percentage 0.00 52.00 30.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 70.00Every 12 months

Survey conducted by NBI centers

SEC leads, SAPs contribute to list of key stakeholders

PDO2. Percentage of users of publically available NBI tools, data, or analysis associated with this project who rate services as “satisfactory” or higher

Percentage 0.00 67.00 30.00 45.00 60.00 65.00 65.00Every six months

Survey to be administered on website; forum surveys

Nile Secretariat, NELSAP-CU, ENTRO

PDO3. Value (USD) of potential investment opportunities for regional water resource management or development advanced under this project

Amount (USD)

0.001,525 million

0.00 1,610million

1,910 million

2,800 million

3,000 million

Every 6 months

Project documents (identification, pre-feasibility studies, etc.)

Nile Secretariat, NELSAP-CU, ENTRO

PDO4. Regional Capacity to Engage on Transboundary Issues Strengthened (Number of people trained on transboundary issues)

Number –a. SEC

b. NELSAP-CU

c. ENTRO

0.00a. 137b. 415c. 160

a. 100b. 260c. 116

a. 200b. 450c. 281

a. 200b. 500c. 300

a. 300b. 525c. 320

a. 300b. 550c. 340

Every 6 months

Training records

Nile Secretariat,

NELSAP-CU, ENTRO

PDO5. Project beneficiaries,

(percentage of which are female)

Number

Percentage 0.00 3,359 2,750(10%)

4,450(15%)

4,700(20%)

5,060(20%)

5,260(20%)

Every six months

Survey to be administered on website; forum surveys

Nile Secretariat, NELSAP-CU, ENTRO

PDO6. Number of projected beneficiaries from work influenced by this project (including investments to be implemented in future) (% of which are female)

Number

Percentage0.00 570,000 570,000 821,200 1,008,40

0 1,008,400 1,008,400Every 12 months

Project documents (identification, pre-feasibility studies, etc.)

Nile Secretariat, NELSAP-CU, ENTRO

5 UOM = Unit of Measurement.6 For new indicators introduced as part of the additional financing, the progress to date column is used to reflect the baseline value.

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Intermediate Results and Indicators

Intermediate Results Indicators

Cor

e

Unit of Measurement

BaselineOriginal ProjectStart(2012)

Progress To Date(2013)

Target Values (cumulative) Frequency Data Source/Methodology

Responsibility for Data

Collection2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Component 1a1: Number of major fora for regional/national dialogue between key stakeholders facilitated

Number 0.00 13/9 4/10 9/20 13/30 20/40 27/50Every 6 months

NBI CalendarNile Secretariat

Component 1a2: Number of Nile Basin tools, data and knowledge products made available /(of which public)

Number 0.00 23/6 4/2 10/6 24/16 32/20 44/24Every 6 months

Web availability, records of report dissemination

Nile Secretariat

Component 1b1: Establishment of Water Resources Database at the Water Ministry in South Sudan

Yes/No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Annually

Assessment at MWRI- Republic of South Sudan, Project Reports

SEC

Component 1b2: Number of registered users of DSS user community

Number 0 40 75 80 120 150 170 Annually Web statistics SEC

Sub-component 2a1: NELSAP-CU: Number of identified investment projects in power and water resource development approved for preparation by NELTAC

Number 0 10 10 10 12 14 16Every 6 months

NELTAC minutes

NELSAP-CU

Sub-component 2a2: NELSAP-CU: Number of knowledge products on priority sub-basin issues disseminated to key stakeholders

Number 0 12 8 16 20 24 30Every 6 months

WebsiteNELSAP-CU

Sub-component 2b1: NELSAP-CU: Number of investment projects undergoing major study through this project

Number 0 (0%) 0 0 28 (100%) 2(100%)

8(100%)

89

(100%)Every 6 months

Pre-feasibility reports

NELSAP-CU

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Intermediate Results and Indicators

Intermediate Results Indicators

Cor

e

Unit of Measurement

BaselineOriginal ProjectStart(2012)

Progress To Date(2013)

Target Values (cumulative) Frequency Data Source/Methodology

Responsibility for Data

Collection2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(Percentage of which includes analysis related to gender7)Sub-component 3a1: ENTRO: Improved Eastern Nile regional flood and drought forecasting system made operational

Yes/No No

enhancements made and delivered

No Yes Yes Yes YesEvery six months

M&E reports ENTRO

Sub-component 3a2: Availability of real-time information and forecasts for improved flood management in South Sudan

Custom None

Forecasting underway for Gambella

Flood forecasting system initiated for South Sudan

Flood forecasting system active for South Sudan

Flood forecasting system active for South Sudan

Flood forecasting system active for South Sudan

Flood forecasting system active for South Sudan

Every six months

Project Reports, website

ENTRO

Sub-component 3a3: ENTRO: Number of hits to improved ENTRO knowledge products and analytical tools

Number 0.00 1814 (est.) 1000 6000 6000 7000 8000Every six months

Website, app, other user statistics

ENTRO

Sub-component 3b1: ENTRO: Percentage of trainees who considered that the training will contribute to their work

Percentage

0.00 85 50 75 75 75 75Every six months

Survey ENTRO

Sub-component 3b2: ENTRO: Dam safety framework and guideline made available

Yes/No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Every six months

ENTRO website release

ENTRO

7 Including compliance with the NBI Gender policy and NELSAP-CU Gender guidelines, including incorporation of findings from the gender audit.8 Includes study on integration of South Sudan into Regional Grid and Muvumbu Project9Ruvyironza, Mara valley, Ngono, Kabuyanda, Nyabanja and Sio-Sango irrigation and watershed projects

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Intermediate Results and Indicators

Intermediate Results Indicators

Cor

e

Unit of Measurement

BaselineOriginal ProjectStart(2012)

Progress To Date(2013)

Target Values (cumulative) Frequency Data Source/Methodology

Responsibility for Data

Collection2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sub-component 3b3: Technical capacity for dam safety increased in the Eastern Nile

Custom 0 0

21 specialists trained in dam safety issues

60 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode Analysis training conducted for 5 dams

60 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode Analysis training conducted for 5 dams

60 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode Analysis training conducted for 5 dams

60 specialists trained; Potential Failure Mode Analysis training conducted for 5 dams

Every six months

Training records ENTRO

Sub-component 3b: Number of water related investment projects influenced by project

Number 0 4 4 6 10 10 10Every six months

ENTRO reporting ENTRO

Sub-component 3b: ENTRO: hectares of watershed management influenced by ENTRO services

Hectare(Ha)

185,000 1,485,000 985,000 1,485,000 2,195,0002,195,000 2,195,00

0Every six months

ENTRO reporting ENTRO

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.

Country: Africa

Project Name: Nile Cooperation for Results Project (P130694)

Results Framework

.

Project Development Objective Indicators

Indicator Name Description (indicator definition etc.)

PDO1. Percentage of key stakeholders who rate NBI services associated with this project to promote regional cooperation as “satisfactory” or higher

All three centers will contribute to this indicator. This indicator is a measure of the NBI’s services to advance cooperation in water resources management and development. As such, “key stakeholders” are a select group of government “clients” of the NBI. Regional cooperation will be promoted through; Cooperation meetings and conferences e.g. NFP meetings, Communication products, Nile Day events, NBDF, Tours of Permanent Secretaries, Strategic Dialogue, SAP investment project preparation activities, Operation of DSS.

PDO2. Percentage of users of publically available NBI tools, data, or analysis associated with this project who rate services as “satisfactory” or higher

All three NBI centers will contribute to these indicators. Enhanced tools will include the Decision Support System, and the flood early warning system. New tools will include the hydro-met portal, the climate change portal, the drought early warning system)

PDO3. Value (USD) of potential investment opportunities for regional water resource management or development advanced under this project

This amount includes investment potential for projects advanced through the project, including through identification, analysis leading to country agreement to pursue a project, feasibility or other technical studies, resource mobilization, etc.

PDO4. Regional Capacity to engage on transboundary issues strengthened (Number of people trained on trans-boundary issues)

This is a subset of the number of direct beneficiaries. Each center will monitor its targets individually so numbers will not be aggregated across centers.

PDO5. Direct project beneficiaries (number), of which female (percentage)

Direct project beneficiaries are those who receive services directly from the project. These services may include trainings, knowledge products, tools, data, or other studies. The wider stakeholders – the people of the Nile -- who will benefit from improved water resource management and development caused by the project are indirect beneficiaries and are not counted in this indicator.

PDO6. Number of projected beneficiaries from work influenced by this project (including investments to be developed in future)

A headcount of all potential future beneficiaries of investments or water resource management activities influenced by this project. Could include potential beneficiaries from projects under identification or feasibility study through NCORE, or projects otherwise influenced by NCORE work. Indicator will be used for CIWA program-level reporting.

.

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Intermediate Results Indicators

Indicator Name Description (indicator definition etc.)

Component 1a1: Nile-SEC: Number of major fora for regional/national dialogue between key stakeholders facilitated

Nile-SEC will contribute to the achievement of this indicator. Regional meetings and conferences will include all those cooperation sessions for the core categories of NBI stakeholders organized under this project. Planned meetings and conferences include: National and Regional level meetings of National Focal Point Officers; Regional meeting of Representatives of profession networks; NBDF; Nile-Day Events; Strategic Dialogues, etc.

Component 1a2: Nile-SEC: Number of Nile Basin tools, data and knowledge products made available /(of which public)

Nile-SEC will contribute to the achievement of this indicator. Through the use of the NB DSS and other tools, data and information shall be generated to provide insights on how the Nile Basin water resources system operates, available opportunities, potential impacts due to un-coordinated development and Climate Change. These analyses results shall be used to develop and disseminate knowledge products on specific aspects of the water resources of the Nile Basin. These knowledge products shall target different segments of stakeholders, technicians, policy/decision makers, academia, and the general public. The data/information generated through these analyses shall be made available publicly. New tools, data and knowledge products can include: DSS licenses, New DSS-add ons (scripts), water resources models for selected sub-basins, operational actual Evapo-transpiration estimates and derived products, thematic briefs, factsheets

Component 1b1: Establishment of a Water Resources Database at the water Ministry in South Sudan

New database will include available data on climate, hydrology, land use/land cover, quality, hydrology

Component 1b2: Number of registered users of the DSS user community

This will include number of users who register on the electronic user community system.

Component 2a1: NELSAP-CU: Number of identified investment projects in power and water resource development approved for further study by NELTAC

This indicator will be tracked through meeting minutes and other communication between

Component 2a2: NELSAP-CU: Number of technical briefs on priority sub-basin issues disseminated to key stakeholders

Note: Baseline does not include briefs already developed by NELSAP. Indicator will only count briefs financed by this project.

Component 2b1: NELSAP-CU: Number of investment projects advanced through major study under this project; percentage of which include analysis related to gender.

Includes projects studied to pre/feasibility level through this project, as well as the major power study in South Sudan.

Component 3a1: ENTRO: Improved Eastern Nile regional flood and drought monitoring and forecasting system made operational.

ENTRO will contribute to the achievement of this indicator.

Component 3a2: ENTRO: Availability of real-time information and forecasts for improved flood management in South Sudan

ENTRO will track the level of services related to floods, as indicated in the targets for this indicator.

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Component 3a3: ENTRO: Number of hits/uses of improved ENTRO knowledge products and analytical tools

This indicator will count the number of hits to the website, apps, and other distribution of ENTRO knowledge products

Component 3b1: ENTRO: Percentage of trainees who considered that the training will contribute to their work.

Indicator is a proxy to measure whether trainings are designed to build usable skills, and whether trainings are targeting the correct audiences (those who can apply lessons on the job)

Component 3b2: ENTRO: Dam safety framework and guideline made available.

ENTRO will contribute to the achievement of this indicator.

Component 3b3: ENTRO: Technical capacity for dam safety increased in the Eastern Nile

This indicator will track adherence to various milestones (involving trainings and related analyses to be undertaken as training activities), leading to the building of capacity in dam safety.

Component 3b4: ENTRO: Number of water related investment projects influenced by this project

Indicator will track the number of projects identified, prepared, or enhanced by this project. While milestones are numerical, annual project progress reports should also include qualitative descriptions about which projects were influenced in what ways, and how the influence occurred.

Component 3b5: ENTRO: hectares of watershed management influenced by ENTRO services

Indicator will track the amount of on-going or future watershed management work that has been influenced by ENTRO activities, including training or studies.

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Annex 2: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF)Africa: Additional Financing for the Nile Cooperation for Results Project (P147218)

.

1. Project Stakeholder RisksProject Stakeholder RiskStakeholder Risk Rating SubstantialRisk Description: Risk Management:Cooperative efforts amongst riparian governments may be affected by the prevailing political environment, including tensions surrounding the signature of the Cooperative Framework Agreement by some riparians and not others.

South Sudan has joined the NBI as the newest member state, and has showed strong interest in NBI’s services for building its water sector’s technical resources and capacity. Implementation risks associated with South Sudan are substantial due to its high capacity needs that the AF seeks to address.

At a technical level, Nile riparians have remained committed to furthering cooperative management and development of the Nile, as evidenced by their continued (albeit reduced and low level for some) participation in regional activities and notwithstanding the complicated regional politics. The specific activities proposed in this AF focus squarely on advancing technical cooperation, instead of political considerations. The proposed results and activities are in areas of technical interest to NBI member governments. Because the political environment may influence project activities, the Bank will continue to be vigilant in following political relations in the region. Importantly, the Bank team will continue to coordinate closely with country offices of the World Bank and with other development partners who are engaged in efforts to advance Nile cooperation, with the teams of other related projects, and with the respective CMUs.

The additional financing proposed includes a programmatic package that NBI has designed specifically to assist in building capacity needs of South Sudan, and includes activities in flood forecasting, climate resilience, knowledge base management, and investment preparation. Since the implementation will be through existing NBI institutions to enhance the implementation capacity of the Government of South Sudan, the risk of delayed implementation is minimized.

Resp: Bank Status: In Progress Stage: Both Recurrent:

Due Date:

Frequency:

Implementing Agency (IA) Risks (including Fiduciary Risks)Capacity Rating ModerateRisk Description: Risk Management:Recent assessment of procurement for the three NBI centers has concluded that procurement systems in place are generally sound. The three centers have generally robust capacities in terms of

Several FM, procurement and safeguards-related trainings/activities for all three centers were completed under the Institutional Strengthening Project and as part of the initiation of the Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE) parent Project to this AF. The task team will continue to work closely with the three centers to ensure that a plan for the continued involvement of key staff is in place despite financial realities. With respect to safeguards, AF activities are designed to build

35

safeguards, although the extent of on-the-ground experience on implementation of policies varies per center. The risk due NBI's Financial Management system were rated as moderate; implementation, operational and management weaknesses in the accounting information system were identified for all the implementing entities

While the necessary staff and expertise are generally in place, there is a risk that the greatly reduced envelope of funds available to the NBI centers (through grants, as the NBTF is coming to a close) could translate to the loss of key staff, and erosion of the capacity needed to successfully implement the program.

capacity in this regard, including through development of dam safety guidelines and mainstreaming of environmental and social activities into water resources development. With regards to FM, the NBI's accounting systems are being upgraded to address some of the system weaknesses noted.Resp: Both Status: Not Yet

DueStage: Both Recurrent: Due

Date:Frequency:

Governance Rating SubstantialRisk Description: Risk Management:National-level Ministry officials and other stakeholders from the Eastern Nile countries sometimes lack permission from their governments to directly participate in NBI/ENTRO regional meetings due to the politics in the Eastern Nile and surrounding the Cooperative Framework Agreement.

ENTRO is working with the Eastern Nile countries to identify the types of consultations that can take place, given diplomatic constraints. One such consultation was NCORE’s Kick-off meeting in Feb 2013, which was attended by stakeholders from EN governments, universities and other networks. While this often extends the timeline needed for consultations, it is necessary in order to get feedback from the riparians. Sudan’s re-entry into NBI activities has also helped facilitate enhanced EN interactions.Resp: Client Status: In

Progress

Stage:

Both Recurrent: Due Date:

Frequency:

Project RisksDesign Rating ModerateRisk Description: Risk Management:The project has a heavy focus on the achievement of results, and is structured by center (i.e., one component per center). The additional financing activities include

The structure of the project is center and results-focused precisely in order to mitigate this risk by identifying realistic milestones (results) that are tailored to the capacity level of each of the centers. Further, most integrated activities under the AF will be conducted in-house by the centers, allowing for an extra degree of flexibility during implementation. Further, the project will also support

36

those where an integrative approach is used, for example the package of activities for South Sudan. There is a risk that not all centers will implement their activities at the same speed, and that results and triggers will not uniformly be met. The differing relative capacity levels of the centers could heighten this risk.

significant capacity building, including on environmental and social issues, dam safety and stakeholder consultations.Resp: Both Status: In

ProgressStage: Both Recurrent: Y Due

Date:N/A Frequency:

Social and Environmental Rating ModerateRisk Description: Risk Management:The project is designed to support NBI operations and assist in the identification of upstream investments and concomitant social and environmental matters. However, applications of environment and social safeguards will have to be synchronized with in- country policies, including activities covering transboundary cooperation and which may require separate guidelines for cross-country applications of safeguards policies. These include synchronization of the environment and social policies and their compatibility with the Bank’s safeguards policies.

Over the past years, the NBI has increased its capacity for addressing environmental and social safeguards, particularly in the ENTRO and NELSAP programs. The NBI has prepared SSEAs, EIAs, RAPs and other safeguards documents for on-going and planned projects under financing from IDA, AfDB, and other bilateral donors. The NBI has both the staff and policies, acceptable to the Bank,

The task team is ensuring that environmental and social concerns are mainstreamed early in project design, including through the use of an ESMF. Close monitoring and supervision of the NBI implementation offices will be needed. The guidelines covered in the existing environment and social management frameworks and trans-boundary cooperation in application of the frameworks are being used to implement the project.

In addition, NBI has revised the ESMF to cover feasibility-level studies and designs to be funded by the project, and has developed and disclosed the appropriate safeguards instruments, in line with the revised ESMF.

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in place to manage the necessary safeguard identification and preparation that will be financed through the proposed project. New activities under the AF include upgrading investment project preparation for some projects (e.g. from pre-feasibility to feasibility levels). Resp: Client Status: In

ProgressStage: Imple

mentation

Recurrent: Due Date:

Frequency:

Program and Donor Rating LowRisk Description: Risk Management:The project will be funded through two trust funds (NBTF and CIWA), each of which involves several development partners. Many of these development partners also have ongoing and planned projects with each of the three centers – both in terms of pre- investment (“Track 1”) activities and investment design and implementation (“Track 2”). If the project is not closely coordinated with these other activities, including World Bank country programs, its effectiveness may be jeopardized.

A close partnership between the World Bank and the development partners has been built during over thirteen years of collaboration under the Nile Basin Trust Fund. This tradition will continue through partnership with the CIWA Trust Fund. The project team will maintain and continue to build strong linkages with other development partners, as well as the various country teams within the World Bank, in order to ensure smooth implementation and effectiveness in terms of catalyzing Track 2 (investment) activities.

Resp: Both Status: In Progress

Stage: Both Recurrent: Due Date:

Frequency:

Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability

Rating Moderate

Risk Description: Risk Management:This program is complex, involving ten countries through three regional entities, and a fairly large number of activities that are planned under a relatively modest budget. Effective and timely procurement has historically been a challenge, and will need to be improved considering the 3-year project period. The AF proposed eases some of the financial strains of the

This risk will be managed with a two-pronged approach. Firstly, the team has been, jointly with the three centers, conducting an analysis to quantify, realistically, the costs associated with the proposed activities for each center. As some of the project activities are quite unique to river basin organizations, and some activities are being carried out “in-house”, such an analysis would draw from each center’s past activity costs and experiences. Secondly, the program was designed such that many of the major consultancies and activities were ready to commence when the project became effective. Additionally, the World Bank and other interested development partners have frequent implementation support missions to review project progress, and to work with the NBI on adaptive management measures for implementation-related bottlenecks or opportunities. In addition, the Nile

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centers, but includes new activities which may further present the risk of not being completed by project date, especially if AF preparation is delayed.

development partners will meet with the NBI one to two times a year to monitor project implementation, through meetings of the Nile Basin Trust Fund Committee and the CIWA Nile Basin Steering Committee.Resp: Both Status: In

ProgressStage: Both Recurrent: Due

Date:Frequency:

Risk Description: Risk Management:The Nile Cooperation for Results Project, which is financing the feasibility studies, designs, ESIA and RAP preparation for the investment projects under component 2b, does not contain financing for the implementation of the potential future investment projects. Neither NELSAP-CU nor the national governments have made a decision to proceed with the implementation of the investment projects, as the further study (financed through the NCORE project) is needed in order to make an investment decision. As such, the involvement of the World Bank in the investment projects beyond the financing of the Feasibility Study, Design, ESIA and RAP (through the NCORE) project is not yet known. A reputational risk to the Bank could emerge if the sub-projects are eventually implemented using standards other than those of the Bank.

The World Bank will encourage NELSAP-CU to work with countries through the NCORE project to increase national capacity for implementation of ESIA and RAP findings, including through provision of funding for training. Further, the World Bank will review ESIA and RAP reports before project closure, to provide guidance to the governments on areas of the instruments that should be improved before the investments are implemented.

Resp: Both Status: In Progress

Stage:

Recurrent: Y Due Date:

N/A Frequency: NA

Overall RisksOverall Implementation Risk:

Substantial

Risk Description:Implementation risk rating is considered to be substantial due to stakeholder participation and governance risks associated with the current political context in the basin. While the NBI is taking proactive measures to mitigate these risks, much lies outside of the control of the NBI.

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