Date: 12/05/13

To: Robert Goldstein, Associate Provost

From: Peter L. Walton, Associate Dean

Subject: Proposal to add PHEP-621 “Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology”

The above-named course is proposed to be added, to be effective Spring 2014.

The course is an elective in the epidemiology M.S. and public health science Ph.D. with specialization in epidemiology programs.

The proposed syllabus has been approved by the MPH Program, Curriculum Committee, Faculty Forum, and the dean’s office.

Attachments: Proposed CIF (signed hard copy to follow) Proposed syllabus

Proposed CIF

Proposed Syllabus

Course Data

Number: PHEP-621Title: Statistical Foundations for EpidemiologyCredit-hours: 4Department: Epidemiology and Population HealthSchool/College: School of Public Health and Information SciencesType: Lecture

Catalog Description

This course introduces essential statistical concepts and foundations for epidemiologists. It is designed for epidemiology students to exercise statistical theory as applied to epidemiologic problem-solving.

Course Description

Statistical techniques are widely used in epidemiologic research. The aim of the course is for students to understand the statistical foundations and theories that underlie these techniques and to enhance critical thinking and integration of this material with broader epidemiologic principles. Practical application of statistical theory to epidemiologic examples, including data management and analysis using SAS statistical software, is an integral part of the course.

Central Course Question

How do epidemiologists depend on and use statistical concepts in epidemiological study design, data collection, data analysis and interpretation?

Fundamental and Powerful Concepts

Probability and probability distributions Random error Bias Sampling Parameters Statistics Estimation

Course Objectives/Student Learning Outcomes

At the completion of the course, the successful student is able to:

Describe characteristics of epidemiologic data and different sampling procedures. [C2] Create descriptive statistics to describe epidemiologic data using real or simulated datasets. [C3] Appropriately apply basic probability theory to epidemiologic problems.[C3] Distinguish between random error and bias [C4] and provide examples of each. [C2] Identify and describe discrete and continuous probability distributions [C2] Use the theory underlying discrete and continuous distributions correctly to make statistical inferences

about epidemiologic data. [C5] Test epidemiologic hypotheses using appropriate statistical methods.[C3] Distinguish between exact and asymptotic methods [C4] and apply each as appropriate to make statistical inferences. [C3] Calculate the power or sample size required to make a specified statistical inference.[C3] Distinguish between categorical and continuous data and the statistical methods required to test

hypotheses using each type of data. [C4]

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Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology PHEP-621

Describe the likelihood function [C2] and use maximum likelihood methods to estimate statistical parameters. [C3] Conduct simple linear regression and logistic regression models [C3] and interpret parameters from these models. [C5] Explain how confounding and interaction can be incorporated into regression models [C2] and create these models to address epidemiologic questions with real or simulated datasets [C3] Distinguish between additive and multiplicative models.[C4] Use SAS software to perform statistical analyses described above.[C3]

Brackets refer to levels of cognition according to Bloom’s taxonomy.1

C1 = KnowledgeC2 = ComprehensionC3 = ApplicationC4 = AnalysisC5 = SynthesisC6 = Evaluation

Prerequisites

Enrollment in the M.S. program in epidemiology or the public health sciences Ph.D. program with specialization in epidemiology.

Students who don’t meet these criteria but believe they are qualified and wish to enroll in the course should contact Student Services at 502-852-3289 for information.

Course InstructorsName Office Phone Email

Kira Taylor, Ph.D., M.S., M.A.Ed.Course Director SPHIS 232 502-852-4063 kctayl04@louisville.edu

The course instructor welcomes conversations with students outside of class. Students may correspond with the instructor by email or phone.

Students should also contact the course instructor with questions they might have regarding the mechanics or operation of the course.

Course Topics and Schedule

IMPORTANT NOTE: The schedule and topics may change as the course unfolds. Changes are posted on Blackboard.

The course consists of three meetings each week: two 1.5- hour classes and one 1-hour laboratory.Meeting Topics Assignments

Class 1 Random sampling, expected value, bias, sample statistic, precision, uncertainty, expected values

Homework 1 distributed Install SAS on computer

Class 2 Descriptive statistics: mean, median, mode, range, standard deviation, variance, covariance, correlation

Lab 1 SAS lab for descriptive statistics: importing and creating data sets using SAS, random number generation, descriptive statistics using real and simulated datasets

Class 3 Introduction to probability: conditional probability, independence, conditional independence

1 Bloom’s Taxonomy – Quick Reference Guide <https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/do/aa/progcompslos/other/Blooms taxonomy et al 2020111028.pdf

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Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology PHEP-621

Meeting Topics Assignments

Class 4 Introduction to probability, continued: diagnostic tests, Bayes’ ruleHomework 1 due Homework 2 distributed

Lab 2 SAS lab for probability and conditional probabilityClass 5 Discrete probability distributions: Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson

Class 6 Discrete probability distributions, continued: maximum likelihood estimation for parameters from discrete probability distributions

Lab 3 SAS lab for discrete probability distributions as applied to epidemiologic questions and data; uncertainty, standard errors

Class 7 Review for midterm exam #1Homework 2 due

Class 8 Midterm exam #1Lab 4 SAS lab covering exact P-values and confidence limits

Class 9 Discrete probability distributions, continued: hypergeometric distribution, exact P-values and confidence limits for discrete distributions

Class 10 Hypothesis testing using discrete (categorical) data; Fisher’s exact test Homework 3 distributedLab 5 SAS lab for hypothesis testing using discrete data

Class 11Exact confidence limits for the rate ratioIntroduction to normal distributionReview of exact P-values and confidence limits for rate

Class 12 Power; Type I and Type II errorsHomework 3 due Homework 4 distributed

Lab 6 Power and sample size calculations using simulations in SAS and online power calculators

Class 13 Review for Midterm Exam #2; extra practice problemsHomework 4 due

Class 14 Midterm Exam #2Class 15 Central limit theorem, normal approximations to the Poisson and binomial Homework 5 distributed

Lab 7 SAS lab for investigating normal approximations to Poisson and binomial, central limit theorem

Class 16 Continuous probability distributions: Chi square, F, t, uniform, exponentialChi-square goodness of fit test

Class 17 Hypothesis testing using continuous distributionsHomework 5 due Homework 6 distributed

Lab 8 Introduction to hypothesis testing using the Normal, t, and Chi-square distributionsContingency tables

Class 18 Power and sample size calculations using continuous distributions

Class 19 McNemar’s test, contingency tables, comparing binomial proportions, Chi-square goodness of fit test

Lab 9 SAS lab for hypothesis testing using continuous distributions; power calculations using continuous distributions

Class 20 Analysis of variance (ANOVA)Class 21 Analysis of variance, continued, and theoretical connection to linear regressionLab 10 SAS lab for ANOVA and linear regression

Class 22 Midterm Exam #3Homework 6 due

Class 23 Analysis of matched data, McNemar’s test, comparing binomial proportions Homework 7 distributedLab 11 SAS lab for nonparametric methods

Class 24 Nonparametric methodsClass 25 Monte Carlo methods and bootstrappingLab 12 SAS lab for Monte Carlo methods and bootstrapping

Class 26 Theoretical framework for logistic regressionClass 27 Bayesian vs. frequentist theories and methodsLab 13 SAS lab for logistic regression

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Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology PHEP-621

Meeting Topics AssignmentsClass 28 Introduction to issues surrounding correlated data analysis

Finals Final examHomework 7 due

Course Materials

Blackboard

The primary mechanism for communication in this course, other than class meetings, is UofL’s Blackboard system at http://ulink.louisville.edu/ or http://blackboard.louisville.edu/. Instructors use Blackboard to make assignments, provide materials, communicate changes or additions to the course materials or course schedule, and to communicate with students other aspects of the course. It is imperative that students familiarize themselves with Blackboard, check Blackboard frequently for possible announcements, and make sure that their e-mail account in Blackboard is correct, active, and checked frequently.

Required Texts

Fundamentals of Biostatistics (7th edition), by Bernard Rosner (Brooks/Cole, 2011)

The little SAS book: a Primer (4th edition), by Delwiche and Slaughter (SAS Publishing, 2008)

The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking: Concepts and Tools, by Paul and Elder (The Foundation for Critical Thinking, 2009) (provided class 1)

Other Required Reading

Other required reading assignments are posted on Blackboard.

Additional Suggested Reading

None.

Prepared Materials Used by Instructors

Materials used by instructors in class are available to students via Blackboard no later than 24 hours following the class. These may include outlines, citations, slide presentations, and other materials. There is no assurance that the materials include everything discussed in the class.

Other Materials

SAS software, v 9.3 must be installed on the student’s personal laptop computer before Lab 1. Students are required to bring laptop computers to all lab meetings.

Course Policies

Attendance and Class Participation

Class attendance is expected and is necessary for successful completion of lab assignments, homework assignments and exams. Reading the textbook and notes is not a substitute for attending class.

Consequences of Academic Honesty Violation

Copying or plagiarism results in a 0 for the assignment and possibly more serious consequences, such as an (earned) failure for the course or expulsion from the program or school.

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Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology PHEP-621

Student Evaluation

The components of student evaluation are (see Grading Rubrics, below, for grading details):

1. “Minute papers.” (10% of final grade)

At the end of each class, students are asked 2-3 questions from the material covered during the class period. The lowest two scores out of 28 are dropped.

2. Homework. (40% of final grade)

Homework assignments 1-6 consist of calculation problems, short answer, multiple choice, short essays and, and usually require the use of SAS as covered in the lab sessions (5% each for 30% of final grade). Homework assignment 7 is a more comprehensive data analysis project (10% of final grade).

Students may discuss homework assignments with each other within reason, but must complete all assignments individually. Students should come to office hours to discuss questions regarding the homework or course material.

3. Midterm exams. (10% each for 30% of final grade)

Three midterm exams are closed-book, in-class exams on cumulative course material up to each exam. Extensive formulas are provided. Exams are similar in format to homework assignments, consisting of short answer, multiple choice, short essays and problems.

4. Final exam. (20% of final grade)

The final exam is a comprehensive, in-class, closed-book exam on all course material. Extensive formulas are provided. The final exam is similar in format to homework assignments and midterm exams, but is more comprehensive in nature, and requires synthesis of concepts learned throughout the semester.

Grading

The components of student evaluation are weighted as follows:

1. “Minute papers” 10%Highest 26 of 28 scores counted

2. Homework 40%Assignments 1-6 @ 5%Assignment 7 @ 10%

3. Midterm exams 30%Three @ 10%

4. Final exam 20%

Grading is on letter scale basis. (Note: No rounding is done; “+” indicates a fractional part of a percentage point is possible above the listed range for the letter grade.)

Final Grade Final Percent Final Grade Final PercentA+ 98-100 C+ 78-79+A 93-97+ C 73-77+A- 90-92+ C- 70-72+B+ 88-89+ D+ 68-69+B 83-87+ D 63-67+B- 80-82+ D- 60-62+

F <60

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Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology PHEP-621

Grading Rubrics

Grading is based on selected intellectual standards set forth in the Paul-Elder model for critical thinking.2 The standards and their scoring in student evaluation are presented in the following tables.

Uses of Intellectual Standards in Scoring

Evaluation Item

Standard Components with Item

Clarity Accur-acy

Rele-vance

Com-plete-ness

Logic “Minute paper”

Home-work

Mid-term exam

Final exam

“Minute paper” question Y Y YCalculation problem Y Y Y Y Y YMultiple choice question Y Y Y Y YShort answer question Y Y Y Y Y Y Y YShort essay question Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Scoring Rubric for Intellectual Standards3

Standard Exceeds standard Meets standard Partially meets

standardDoes not meet

standard Fails to try

4 3 2 1 0

Clarity Polished Crystal Clear Slightly hazy Too cloudy to see through

Nothing to consider

Accuracy The real deal! Right on! Are you sure? That’s just wrong!

Nothing to consider

Relevance Bull’s-eye On-target Edge of target Off-target Nothing to consider

Completeness Cornucopia Enough Almost enough Not enough Nothing to consider

Logic Mastermind Makes sense Mostly makes sense

Doesn’t make sense

Nothing to consider

Other Policies

Expected Student Effort Out of Class

Students are expected to spend an average at least 2-1/2 hours per week per credit hour on the course exclusive of class time. This time includes but is not limited to reading, research, preparations for class, team or group meetings (electronic or otherwise), and course deliverables.

Syllabus Revision

The course director reserves the right to modify any portion of this syllabus. A best effort is made to provide an opportunity for students to comment on a proposed change before the change takes place.

Instructional Modifications for Students with Disabilities:

Students with disabilities who need reasonable modifications to complete assignments successfully and otherwise satisfy course criteria are encouraged to contact the instructor as early in the course as possible to identify and plan specific accommodations. Students are asked to provide a letter from the Disability Resource Center and other documentation to assist in planning modifications.

Inclement Weather

This course adheres to the University’s policy and decisions regarding cancellation or delayed class schedules. Adjustments are made to the class schedule as necessary to take into account any delays or cancellations of this class.

2 Adapted in part from Linda Elder and Richard Paul, Intellectual Standards: The Words That Name Them and the Criteria That Define Them, The Foundation for Critical Thinking, 2008.

3 Adapted from Peter L. Walton, M.D., personal communication, 2012.

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Local television and radio stations broadcast University delays or closings. The UofL web site (www.louisville.edu) and telephone information line (502-852-5555) also broadcast delays or closings.

Grievances

A student who has grievances regarding the course should seek to have the matter resolved through informal discussion and through administrative channels, such as the course director, chair of the course’s department, associate dean for student affairs, and university grievance officer. If the issue remains unresolved, the student may file a formal grievance. More information is located at Summary of SPHIS Student Academic Grievance Procedure in Student Academic Grievance Committee (https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/cbg/sagc/).

Disabilities

In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, students with bona fide disabilities are afforded reasonable accommodation. The Disability Resource Center certifies a disability and advises faculty members of reasonable accommodations. More information is located at http://louisville.edu/disability.

Academic Honesty

Students are required to comply with the academic honesty policies of the university and School of Public Health and Information Sciences. These policies prohibit plagiarism, cheating, and other violations of academic honesty. More information is located at https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/policies.

Course instructors use a range of strategies (including plagiarism-prevention software provided by the university) to compare student works with private and public information resources in order to identify possible plagiarism and academic dishonesty. Comparisons of student works require students to submit electronic copies of their final works to the plagiarism-prevention service. The service delivers the works to instructors along with originality reports detailing the presence or lack of possible problems. The service retains copies of final works and may request students’ permission to share copies with other universities for the sole and limited purpose of plagiarism prevention and detection.

In addition instructors provide the opportunity for students to submit preliminary drafts of their works to the service to receive reports of possible problems. Such reports are available only to the submitting student. Copies of preliminary drafts are not retained by the service.

Continuity of Instruction Plan

A plan for continuity of instruction for this course has been developed and published. All plans are available at https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/do/aa/coip. Continuity of instruction plans provide guidance for how instruction may be modified to lessen disruption by events that affect transportation, communication, or personal interaction. Such events may be weather-related (e.g., floods, blizzards, tornados), health-related (e.g., epidemics), or other widespread occurrences or threats.

Additional Policy Information

Additional policy information is available in the following:

SPHIS Catalog (https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/do/aa)

SPHIS Policies and Procedures (https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/policies)

UofL Graduate Catalog (http://louisville.edu/graduatecatalog)v2011.11.13

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Current Version and Course History

Current VersionVersion 2011.11.13

Author(s) Kira Taylor, Ph.D., M.S., M.A.Ed.

Course HistoryVersion Submitted Approved Change Summary Author(s)

2011.11.13 12/xx/13 pending Initial version Kira Taylor, Ph.D., M.S., M.A.Ed.

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