Wealth and Power in the New World Order

Carol Lancaster12 October 2009

Distinguished Lecture Series:

Basic Message

We are living a slow-moving and fundamentaltransition in wealth and power in the worldinvolving –

–changes in the distribution of wealth–a redefinition of power –challenges to world order

Questions

• What was the “old world order” like?

• What changes have occurred that contribute to a different world today?

• With what consequences for power and wealth – and order?

The Old World Order

• State Centric

• Two ‘super-powers’ > Cold War

• The rich North and the poor South

• End of old order – circa 1991

The End of the Cold War

“You will miss us when we are gone…”

Prosperity and Change in the Global South

• Some real progress in growth in the South and reduction in poverty, economic liberalization, political openings and expansion in role of women

• Increasing integration of many states into global economy

• Erosion of reality of a “Third World” of poverty and underdevelopment

• Temporary (inshallah) setback

Trends leading to end of Old Order

• Technology

• Education & capacity

• Political stability

• Prosperity (effect & cause)

Characteristics of evolving world today

• Deconcentration of wealth

• Redefinition and decentralization of power

• Increased potential for disorder

The Spread of Economic WealthWorld GDP Growth 1990-2008

G-5 Growth as % of World

The Spread of Wealth

GDP G-20 as % of World GDP 1960-2008

Behind the Growth

• Growth in World Trade 1950-2001

Decentralization and redefinition of power

• Increasingly integrated and interdependent• No longer State-centric. Now many different

influential international actors and networks• Power to use force (military) still important;

power to disrupt or block more important than ever before

In addition – new challenges

• demography + prosperity = pressure on resources (e.g., water, energy, food) + climate change

• Aging in richer countries + youth and poverty in poorer countries = migration and challenges to identities.

Population Growth

• Enormous continuing increase in population• But aging populations in rich and big countries

Age and Youth

Demography, Identity and Movement of Peoples

Impact of “Great Recession”

Demonstration of integration, decentralizationof power and wealth and vulnerabilities todisorder

Global Challenges in the New World Order

• Who or what is to create and manage order in the “new world order”?

• Past approaches to world order: empires, hegemony and alliances

• Candidates for leadership:– The weakness of the UN– The fragmentation of the EU– The role of the US in the world: bounded power and the

weight of domestic politics– The meaning of the replacement of the G-7 by the G-20– Emergence of regional and sectoral actors

Challenges to States in new world order

• Security in an integrated world• Managing political change• Managing economic prosperity• Managing immigration and identity• Managing global problems