We routinely observe the Tropical Pacific to forecast El Niño/La Niña and their influence on climate

Courtesy of: Rosanna M. Sumagaysay, NASA/JPL Physical Oceanography DAC

Sea Surface Height and Temperature Anomalies: Dec 96 - Feb 99

•We established an operational in situ ENSO Observing System in 1997

•We have an ongoing operational satellite surface temperature capability

•We will have continuing observations of sea surface topography from the Jason-1 altimeter mission in 2000

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Mid-Nov Forecast

(top)

Observations (bottom)

Courtesy: NOAA’s Climate Forecast

Center

PRECIPITATION Dec98/Feb99

Global Precipitation

Anomalies

Forecast (above) &Observed (below) for the 1997/98

El Nino

Courtesy ofDavid Anderson

ECMWF

But phenomena in addition to ENSO influence our climate:

-- Pacific Decadal Oscillation -- Arctic Oscillation -- Indian Ocean Dipole -- Antarctic Circumpolar Wave

which we need to observe, understand and forecast

and the observations must include the subsurface

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

1947-1976

1977-1997

Courtesy of the National Geographic Magazine

Courtesy of the National Geographic Magazine

North Atlantic Oscillation(or the North Atlantic expression of the Arctic Oscillation)

Tropical Atlantic Variability

Courtesy of the

National Geographic Magazine

The Arctic Oscillation

Potential Wintertime

Predictability for

Temperature

Courtesy of NOAA

Climate Prediction

Center

Courtesy of: Howard Freland, IOS

Surface Temperature for Jan/Feb, 1998 Anomaly

Sea Surface Temperature and

Sea Level PressureAnomalies

Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

Correlation of dominant modes of variability

of SST and Precipitation in & around Australia

(Based on the analysis of a 40-year record)

Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

Courtesy of Toshio Yamagata, U of Tokyo

Correlation between Rainfall and the Indian Ocean Dipole Index

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Courtesy of Frank Wentz and Chelle Gentemann, RSS

Hurricane Gert and Tropical Storms Harvey & Hilary Threaten North America

Observations from NASA’s Quikscat on Sept 20, 1999Courtesy of Liu, Xie & Tang, JPL

Courtesy of : Dudley Chelton, OSU

Quikscat-derived surface vector windsJuly 21 to Oct 21, 1999

We are at a point in time where we can consider putting it all together for the global oceans:

-- satellite and in situ observations-- observations and models-- research and operations

Courtesy ofLakshmi Kantha

Colorado U

Nowcasts (11/25 - 12/25, 1998) Forecasts (thru 1/24/99)

Warming of the World Ocean

Courtesy of: Sydney Levitus,

National Oceanographic

Data Center, NOAA

Courtesy of NOAA/NCDC

Courtesy of NOAA/NCDC

For the global oceans, we have:

-- satellite coverage of the surface -- communications -- computers and models

all capable of operating in near real time

However, we lack a complementary in-situ system to observe the subsurface

WOCE Stations and a typical monthly XBT coverage

Argo is the next step in global ocean observations

It will complement our existing global satellite capability -- surface temperature -- topography -- vector winds

Video courtesy of Webb Research

Indian OceanFloat

Trajectories

@ 1000-m depth

25-day steps

Jan 95 - Dec 98

Courtesy ofBreck Owens,

WHOI &Russ Davis,

SIO

LabradorSea

Float Trajectories

600 & 1400 m

10-day steps

Jan 97 - Dec 98

Courtesy ofBreck Owens,

WHOI &Russ Davis,

SIO

Mixed Layer Depth

Deepest Blue 1,000 m or

more

10-day steps

Jan 97 - Dec 98

Courtesy ofBreck Owens,

WHOI &Russ Davis,

SIO

Typical global coverage with 3,000 Argo floats

International Commitments for Argo Floats

3/24/01

Number of Argo Float Argo Float Argo Float Proposed Prop FloatFloats by Country Funded Equiv's Funded Equiv's Funded Equiv's over next Equiv's

FY99 FY99 FY00 FY00 FY01 FY01 3 years over 3 yrsAustralia 10 10 90Canada 10 42 90China 10 80Denmark 5European Commission 80France 8 70 65 200Germany 18 22 100 35India 6 150Japan 20 90 300New Zealand 2 10Republic of Korea 20 90Spain 24United Kingdom 13 50 5 150 40U.S.A. 55 132 51 150 40 825 60TOTALS 55 8 255 69 525 72 2109 135

TOTALS BY YEAR FY99 = 63 FY00 = 324 FY01 = 597 Ave/Yr = 748

International Implementation Planning Meetings for Argo

(Sponsored by the WMO and IOC)

-- Pacific Ocean -- Tokyo, April 13-14, 2000

-- Atlantic Ocean -- Paris, July 10-11, 2000

-- Indian Ocean -- TBD time & location, 2001

(planning trip March 14-15)

Initial U.S. Argo Float Deployments

Target Regions for Deployment of the International Argo Floats Already Funded

12/3/00

The first regions to be fully covered will be the Atlantic and Tropical Pacific

Exclusive Economic Zones for the Pacific Ocean

60N

30N

Eq

30S

60S120W120E 180

Proposed Deployment of Argo Floats in 2001

compared with EEZ coverage in the western Pacific

The WMO & IOC have endorsed/accepted Argo:

-- as an important component of the operational observing system of GOOS and GCOS

-- as a major contribution to CLIVAR and other research programs

-- with the data and derived products from Argo floats being “freely available in real-time and delayed mode”

The IOC Resolution on Argo states that:

-- “as with existing surface drifting buoys, some…[floats]...may drift into waters under national jurisdiction…”

-- “…concerned coastal states must be informed in advance...of all deployments of...floats which might drift into [their] waters…”

Argo Information Centre

• Full-time Technical Coordinator hired to provide services for Argo as are provided for DBCP & SOOP

• To be managed under the new Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology

• To provide notification for float deployments• http://argo-forum.jcommops.org

Adequate coverage of the western tropical Pacific—a priority area—

will of necessity involve float deployment within the EEZs of Pacific Island Nations

Consequently, we have approached these Nations via SOPAC and, working through its Council,

have secured an understanding with the Pacific Island Forum

The IOC Resolution was silent concerning the issue of deployment

of Argo floats within EEZs

The next step in implementation requires planning

for the deployment of floatsfrom ships or aircraft of opportunity

If there is to be adequate coverage of the western tropical Pacific

—a priority area—this will involve float deployment

within the EEZs of Pacific Island nations

Planned U.S. Argo float

deployments during 2001

Black = volunteer ships

Colors = research vessels

12/3/00

We are seeking national commitments to operational observing systems

for the global oceans, just as we have for the atmosphere

An essential element is building national consensus, bridging between different agencies in each nation

-- research and operational -- oceanic and atmospheric -- civilian and Naval -- weather and climate

Why develop political consensus?

We are seeking national commitments to operational observing systems

for the global oceans, just as we have for the atmosphere

We routinely collect satellite observations

of the surface of the global oceans, but we are not able to collect

complementary subsurface observations

Given an understanding of Argo, there is strong initial support

But continuing support will depend on countries being able to derive benefit from the data

Countries with well developed oceanographic and climate forecasting capabilities will be able to do so,

with the ‘free & open’ data policy

But other countries will need access to such capabilities if they, too, are to be able

to derive full benefit from the data

The U.S. contribution to Argo is managed by the National Oceanographic Partnership Program, with funding from ONR and NOAA.

Argo international activities are coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

Argo float technology was developed over the past decade by the World Ocean Circulation Experiment with funding from NSF and ONR.

Argo is one element of a comprehensive international system

for observing the global oceans

-- Global Eulerian Observatories-- GODAE (2003-2005)

-- CLIVAR: ACVE & PBECS-- GOOS/GCOS

Proposed Global Eulerian Observations

Courtesy of Uwe Send, IfM, Kiel

Why a Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ?Why a Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ?

Opportunities: Opportunities:

• maturity of satellite and in-situ observing systems make real-time global observations feasible

• advances in scientific knowledge (e.g. TOGA, WOCE) and our ability to model the global ocean and assimilate data

2003-2005 a good time to mount 2003-2005 a good time to mount

a demonstration of feasibility and practicalitya demonstration of feasibility and practicality

Needs:Needs:

• user demand for global ocean products for a variety of applications--including scientific research

• building a permanent, well-supported ocean observing system requires convincing demonstrations

The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

GODAEGODAE

Objective:Objective: Provide a practical demonstration of real-time, global ocean data assimilation for operationaloperational oceanography

The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for:

-- short-range open-ocean forecasts

-- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts

-- initial conditions for climate forecast models

To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our:

-- understanding of the oceans

-- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems

-- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system

GODAE Requirements - in-situGODAE Requirements - in-situ

The existing global, in-situ observing system is clearly inadequate for

GODAE. The development of an appropriate network must take into

account the complementarity of satellites and in-situ systems:

-- vertical structure from in-situ data

-- broad surface coverage from satellites

-- different sampling and measurement schemes

-- calibration/validation of satellites with in-situ data

Argo was designed to meet this need. It will provide the primary global data for GODAE, complementing existing operational and experimental systems.

Argo: a GODAE/CLIVAR project

The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

From From Mark TrailMark Trail, , September 26, 1999September 26, 1999

For further information, contact:

Dr. Stan Wilson, Deputy Chief Scientist U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

202-482-3385; stan.wilson@noaa.gov