we add value as one company - basf · statements about future events, future financial performance,...
TRANSCRIPT
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 1
150 years 150 years
We add value as one company
150 years
Kurt Bock Chief Executive Officer Roadshow Zurich November 30, 2015
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 2
150 years 150 years
Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. Forward-looking statements may include, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. BASF has based these forward-looking statements on its views and assumptions with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and BASF does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 3
150 years 150 years
Chemistry as an enabler BASF has superior growth
opportunities: – sustainable innovations – investments – emerging markets
The #1 chemical company €74 billion sales, €7.4 billion
EBIT bSI in 2014 #1-3 in ~70% of businesses,
in almost all countries 6 integrated Verbund sites,
production in 60 countries
A track record of strong sales and earnings growth
12% average annual dividend increase, >3% yield in every single year*
~€68 billion market capitalization Oct. 2015
Perspective
* For 2004-2014
Ludwigshafen, Germany
Antwerp, Belgium
Nanjing, China
Kuantan, Malaysia Geismar,
USA Freeport, USA
Verbund site
Positioning
We create chemistry for a sustainable future
Performance
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2013 2015
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 4
150 years 150 years
Percentage of sales 2014*
* Not depicted here: ~5% of Group sales reported as ‘Other‘. Paper Chemicals results have been incl. in Performance Products until the end of 2014. Thereafter Paper Chemicals has been dissolved; ** Natural Gas Trading has been sold Sep. 30, 2015 to Gazprom.
BASF today – a well-balanced portfolio Total sales 2014: €74 billion
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 5
150 years 150 years
Global reduction in carbon emissions of 6 million metric tons/a. and reduction of waste
Example Ludwigshafen site: avoidance of 7 million metric tons of freight/a. = 280,000 fewer truckloads
Shared use of on-site facilities: fire department, security, waste water treatment and analytics
Verbund: Unique competitive advantage
* Savings include only tangible synergies. Additional (intangible) benefits and retained profits are not included.
Verbund generates >€1 billion p.a. global cost savings* & supports sustainability
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 6
Q3 2015 reporting
Business development
Path forward: Our priorities
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 7
150 years 150 years
Third-quarter sales and EBIT bSI down in a difficult economic environment
Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies
Q3´15 vs. Q3´14 (1%) (8%) 0% 4%
Business performance Q3’15 Q3’14* vs. Q3’14*
Sales €17.4 billion €18.3 billion (5%)
EBITDA €2.9 billion €2.5 billion +14%
EBIT before special items €1.6 billion €1.8 billion (10%)
EBIT €1.9 billion €1.7 billion +8%
Net income €1.2 billion €1.0 billion +19%
Reported EPS €1.31 €1.11 +18%
Adjusted EPS €1.07 €1.24 (14%)
Operating cash flow €3.4 billion €2.2 billion +51%
* Previous year values restated due to dissolution of disposal group “Natural Gas Trading“
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 8
150 years 150 years
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009** 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q32015
Strong free cash development Q1-Q3 2015
* Cash provided by operating activities less capex (in 2005 before CTA) ** 2009 adjusted for re-classification of settlement payments for currency derivatives
Free cash flow* (in billion €)
3.3 3.5
3.2
2.5
3.2
3.9 3.7
2.6
3.2
1.7
4.1
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 9
150 years 150 years
We aim to increase volumes excluding the effects of acquisitions and divestitures. Due to the divestment of the gas trading and storage business as part of the asset swap with
Gazprom and the lower oil price we expect sales to be slightly lower than in 2014. EBIT before special items is expected to be slightly below the level of 2014. The chemicals business
is expected to provide a larger contribution than in 2014. Earnings from crop protection will most likely come in slightly below the level of 2014. In Oil & Gas, results will decline significantly caused by the lower oil price and the divestment of the gas trading and storage business.
We aim to earn a substantial premium on our cost of capital, but on a lower level than in 2014.
Outlook 2015
GDP: +2.3% (+2.4%) Industrial production: +2.0% (+2.9%) Chemical production (excl. pharma): +3.5% (+3.8%) US$ / Euro: 1.12 (1.15) Brent oil price (US$ / bbl): 55 (60-70)
Assumptions 2015
Revised Outlook 2015
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 10
Q3 2015 reporting
Business development
Path forward: Our priorities
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 11
150 years 150 years
Low growth in Europe, Japan and the U.S.
Strong growth stimulus in China with spillover effects to other emerging markets
Lower feedstock costs
Proliferation of some technologies resulted in increased competition
Faster build-up of significant new capacities in China resulted in overcapacities
Faster than expected commoditization in selected product lines
Market dynamics have changed since 2011
Fundamental trends intact; environment for chemical industry more challenging
CAGR 2010 - 2015 2011 view today’s view
Global GDP 3.4% 2.6%
Industrial production 4.6% 3.2%
Chemical production (excl. pharma) 4.9% 3.9%
► thereof growth contribution of emerging markets 82% 91%
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 12
150 years 150 years
Components of growth
* 2010, 2011 indicative, adjusted by IFRS 10 & 11
59,6
74,3 8,7 4,9 -[WERT] 2,8
20
40
60
80
2010 2014
Volumes
Prices FX M&A
Sales* analysis 2010 – 2014 (in billion €)
Net sales 2010 Volumes Prices FX M&A Sales CAGR 2010 - 2014
BASF Group w/o Oil & Gas 51.4 +3.2
(+1.5% CAGR) +3.9 -1.6 +2.2 +3.6%
Oil & Gas 8.2 +5.5 (+13.7% CAGR) +1.0 -0.1 +0.6 +15.7%
5.7%
CAGR
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 13
150 years 150 years
Functional crop care Personal care & food Omega-3 fatty acids Enzymes Battery materials Specialty plastics Selected assets in
Oil & Gas …
BASF core business
Strong partnerships
Gazprom Monsanto Petronas Shell Sinopec Statoil Total Yara
Selected transactions 2010 − until today
Acquisitions
~ €4.5 billion sales in emerging and innovation-driven
businesses
Divestitures
Styrenics Fertilizers Construction equipment,
flooring and wall systems Decorative paints in Europe Selected assets in Oil &
Gas Natural gas trading Custom synthesis business
~ €20 billion sales* in businesses with
limited fit and differentiation
potential
Portfolio development towards more market-driven and innovative businesses
* Includes sales of non-consolidated businesses (Styrenics, VNG participation)
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 14
150 years 150 years
Steady earnings growth
* 2010, 2011 indicative, adjusted by IFRS 10 & 11; 2001 – 2009 as reported, without non-compensable foreign income taxes on oil production
EBIT and EBITDA* (in billion €, 2001 - 2014)
3,7
4,7 4,6
7,0 7,2
8,4 8,9
7,7
6,5
9,9
11,2
10,0 10,4
11,0
8,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 - 32015
EBIT EBITDA
0,7
2,2 2,2
4,5 4,8 5,5
6,0
4,6
2,8
6,7
8,0 6,7 7,2
7,6
5,9
CAGR EBITDA
8.9 % CAGR EBIT
19.8 %
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 15
150 years 150 years
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Strong track record in operational excellence
EBITDA
Sales
* Excl. companies with major IFRS 10/11 restatements, i.e. BASF YPC Nanjing, Libya onshore, other Oil & Gas and Catalysts companies
BASF Group* 2001–2014 (Index; CAGR 2001–2014)
Fixed Costs
CAGR EBITDA
9%
CAGR Sales
7%
CAGR Fixed Costs
3%
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 16
150 years 150 years
We want to grow or at least maintain our dividend
Dividend paid out per share €2.80, an increase of 3.7%
Average annual dividend increase of approx. 12% (2005-2014)
Attractive dividend yield of 4.0% in 2014**
Dividend yield above 3% in any given year since 2005
3.7%
Key facts
Dividend per share (in €)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
2005 2008 2011 2014
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
* Dividend yield based on share price at year-end
3.1% 4.1% 3.8% 7.0% 3.9% Yield*
** Based on BASF share price of €69.88 on Dec 30, 2014
4.6%
2.50
3.7%
3.00
3.5% 4.0%
1.00
1.50
1.95 1.95 1.70
2.20 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80
Dividend policy
Attractive shareholder return
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 17
150 years 150 years
Delivering consistent, long-term value
Average annual performance with dividends reinvested
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33
Euro Stoxx 50
DAX 30
MSCI World Chemicals
+8.2%
Last 5 years November 2010 – October 2015
+11.1%
+7.0%
+10.4%
+9.8%
Last 10 years November 2005 – October 2015
BASF
+8.6%
+3.4%
+31.4%
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 18
Q3 2015 reporting
Business development
Path forward: Our priorities
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 19
150 years 150 years
Our strategic principles
We add value as one company.
We innovate to make our customers more successful.
We drive sustainable solutions.
We form the best team.
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 20
150 years 150 years
CAGR 2015 - 2020 2011 view today’s view
Global GDP 3.2% 3.0%
Industrial production 3.7% 3.5%
Chemical production (excl. pharma) 4.0% 3.9%
► thereof growth contribution of emerging markets 89% 82%
Fundamental trends intact; chemical production growing faster than GDP
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 21
150 years 150 years
Grow sales and earnings faster than global chemical production, driven by
– Continued focus on innovations
– Capital expenditures
– Acquisitions
– Operational excellence and Verbund advantages
Focus on cash generation / conversion
Continue with our progressive dividend policy
Focus on pruning our portfolio
Maintain industry-leading position in sustainability
The way forward: Our priorities
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 22
150 years 150 years
Managing volatility: BASF almost perfectly hedged on hydrocarbon price changes BASF production and consumption of oil and gas (in million boe, 2014)
BASF hydrocarbon consumption almost equals hydrocarbon production
Production of oil, liquids and gas Consumption of oil derivatives and gas
136
>100
Natural gas
Oil and liquids
Natural gas for energy and as raw material
Naphtha and other oil based raw materials
31
105
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 23
150 years 150 years
Strategic lever: Continuous portfolio development
Specialties and solutions
Differentiated commodities
target (in % of sales*)
~ 50% ~ 50%
Keep a balanced portfolio
Divestment of businesses e.g. due to loss of differentiation
Divestment of businesses e.g. due to
lower market attractiveness
Commoditization leads to restructuring
Growth fields
Innovation pipeline
Acquisitions
* Excluding Oil & Gas sales
Attractive markets Differentiation by process
technologies and integration
Attractive markets Differentiation by customer
proximity and innovations
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 24
150 years 150 years
Provide a minimum return on investment of 8% p.a. after tax
Are EPS accretive by year three at the latest
Financial acquisition criteria
Generate profitable growth above the industry average
Are innovation-driven
Offer a special value proposition to customers
Reduce earnings cyclicality
Strategic acquisition criteria
We want to acquire businesses which …
Strategic lever: Acquisitions
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 25
150 years 150 years
Strategic lever: Capital expenditures – our philosophy
Differentiated commodities With proprietary technology and/or Verbund advantages
Focus on: – emerging markets – backward integration in the US – upgrading our asset base in Europe
Specialties and solutions
Incremental investments for new products Regional expansion of businesses
Oil & Gas Focus investment budget by active portfolio optimization to secure free cash flow Keep reserve-to-production ratio of approx. 10 years
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 26
150 years 150 years
Selected major capex projects
Implementation of increased capex program will drive profitable growth
Temporarily increased capex is necessary – to build the base for
further growth – to strengthen our value
chains – to increase our footprint
in emerging markets Capex peaked in 2014
with €5.4 billion**
Capex spending
* W/o China; ** Investments in property, plant and equipment (without acquisitions)
.
Care chemicals Polymer dispersions
Polyurethane specialties Specialty plastics
North America
Cracker flexibilization and expansion
Battery materials Dispersion polymers Asia Pacific*
South America
Automotive coatings Crop protection products
Oil & Gas
Europe
Aroma chemicals SAP
Crop protection products Automotive catalysts
Butadiene Admixture systems
Specialty plastics Oil & Gas
China
Cracker expansion Amines
Surfactants Acrylic acid & SAP
Resins Specialty plastics
Crop protection products
Innovation Campus
Start-ups 2011 - 2014 Start-ups planned for 2015 - 2017
TDI complex Precious metal recycling Specialty amines Crop protection products Oil & Gas
Acrylic acid & SAP Acrylates Crop protection products Oil & Gas
Chelating agents Polyurethane systems Formic acid Butanediol expansion Crop protection products Ammonia
MDI Polyamides Butanediol / PolyTHF®
Neopentylglycol Specialty amines Ethylene oxide Isononanol Coating resins Automotive catalysts Process catalysts
Automotive catalysts Polymer dispersions Specialty plastics Aroma chemicals 2-Ethylhexanoic acid Polyisobutene Innovation Campus
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 27
150 years 150 years
Investments for organic growth
Performance Products 15%
Oil & Gas 21%
€19.5 billion
Functional Materials & Solutions 13%
Capex budget 2015-2019
Other 12%
Chemicals 33%
Capex budget 2015-2019
Asia Pacific 18%
€19.5 billion
South America* 8%
North America 27%
Europe 45%
Agricultural Solutions 6%
Other 2%
(by segment) (by region)
* Includes also regions Africa and Middle East
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 28
150 years 150 years
Customers BASF Suppliers
Energy & climate protection Greenhouse gas reduction* of 40% by 2020 (base 2002) Energy efficiency: Introduction of certified energy
management system at all major sites by 2020
Water Introduction of sustainable water management
at all relevant sites by 2025
Safety, health and security “Risk assessment” of products by 2020 >99% Health Performance Index** (annual goal) >0.9 Lost-time injuries*** by 2025 0.5 Process safety incidents*** by 2025 0.5
Employees Women in leadership positions Non-German senior executives Senior executives with international experience >80%
Evaluation of 70% of
relevant suppliers
with regard to their
sustainability
performance by
2020
Increase the share
of Accelerators from
23% to 28% by
2020
Strategic lever: Sustainability Sustainability goals along the value chain
* Per metric ton of sales products/excluding oil and gas production; ** Highest possible score 1.0; *** Per one million work hours
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 29
150 years 150 years
2.6% 0.3%
Novel methodology to screen and steer our portfolio*
23% Accelerators: – outgrow their markets
by 2-10% – deliver margins >10%
above the average – represent >60% of BASF’s
R&D pipeline 74% Performers <1% Challenged products
* 60,000 product applications analyzed; covering 98.3% of the relevant portfolio or €66.3bn. in sales (2014 data)
Increase the share of Accelerators from 23% in 2014 to 28% by 2020
Strategic lever: Sustainability Sustainable Solution Steering
23%
74.1%
Substantial sustainability contribution in the value chain
Meets basic sustainability standards in the market
Specific sustainability issue which is actively addressed
Significant sustainability concern, action plan in development
Sustainable Solution Steering
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 30
150 years 150 years
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2015 2018
Annual earnings contribution (in million €)
Targeted annual earnings contribution of €1 billion by end of 2018
Optimization of processes and structures in all regions, e.g. – manufacturing – incremental capacities – productivity increase
Project timeline: 2016–2018
DrivE program
Strategic lever: Operational excellence DrivE with ~€1 bn earnings contribution
Former cost saving programs pre- 2008
NEXT 2008-2011 DrivE 2016-2018
STEP 2012-2015
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 31
150 years 150 years
Profitability of BASF will grow faster than global chemical production
Sales growth* Slightly faster than the global chemical production
EBITDA growth Well above global chemical production
Remain a strong cash provider Continuously generate high levels of free cash flow
Financial targets for next years
Deliver attractive returns Earn a significant premium on cost of capital
* Without considering Natural Gas Trading and Storage business
Progressive dividend policy We want to grow or at least maintain our dividend
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 32
Appendix I – Q3 2015 reporting
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 33
150 years 150 years
Chemicals Slight earnings growth despite start-up costs
Intermediates 707 +1%
Monomers 1,522 (4%)
Petrochemicals 1,411 (26%)
€3,640 (13%)
Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies
Q3’15 vs. Q3’14 (2%) (16%) (2%) 7%
Q3’15 segment sales (in million €) vs. Q3’14 EBIT before special items (in million €)
616 580
726
548633
0
200
400
600
800
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2014
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 34
150 years 150 years
Performance Chemicals 1,009 (2%)
Performance Products Earnings impacted by challenging market conditions
Care Chemicals
1,218 +1%
€3,899 (1%)
Nutrition & Health 496 (5%)
Dispersions & Pigments
1,176 +1%
Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies
Q3’15 vs. Q3’14 (2%) (4%) (1%) 6%
Q3’15 segment sales (in million €) vs. Q3’14 EBIT before special items (in million €)
376
217
515
304 319
0
200
400
600
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2014
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 35
150 years 150 years
Functional Materials & Solutions Earnings growth on continued good demand in automotive and construction
Catalysts 1,472 (6%)
Construction Chemicals
614 +9%
Coatings 753 +2%
€4,5170%
Q3’15 segment sales (in million €) vs. Q3’14
Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies
Q3’15 vs. Q3’14 (1%) (5%) 0% 6%
Performance Materials 1,678 +1%
EBIT before special items (in million €)
310220
431 458371
0
200
400
600
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2014
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 36
150 years 150 years
Agricultural Solutions Difficult market environment impacts earnings in seasonally slow quarter
Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies
Q3’15 vs. Q3’14 6% 10% 0% (10%)
Q3’15 segment sales (million €) vs. Q3’14
0
50
100
Q3 Q30
300
600
900
1.200
Q3 Q3
1,077
7
43
1,018
EBIT before special items (million €)
2015 2014 2015 2014
+6%
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 37
150 years 150 years
Oil & Gas Higher earnings in Exploration & Production
Sales development Period Volumes Price/Currencies Portfolio
Q3’15 vs. Q3’14 2% (6%) 2%
* Previous year values restated due to dissolution of disposal group “Natural Gas Trading“
9
176
236
79
625
0100200300400500600700
Q3/2014 Net Income Q3/2015 Net Income
Exploration & Production
667 +9%
Natural Gas Trading 2,939 (4%)
€3,606 (2%)
Q3’15 segment sales (million €) vs. Q3’14 EBIT bSI/Net income (million €)
Natural Gas Trading
Exploration & Production
Net income
436*
260 292
371
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 38
150 years 150 years
* incl. Gas Marketing Company ** Economic interest of BASF
Oil & Gas Impact of projects with Gazprom on BASF’s P&L
Oil & Gas EBIT
Financial results
= Income before taxes and minority interests
./. Income taxes
./. Minority interests
= Net income
OPAL
50.02%
At-equity consolidation (share of net income shown in the EBIT)
Achimgaz (Achimov area IA)
Wintershall AG (Libya)
51%
Nord Stream (I) (offshore)
15.5%
GASCADE
50.02%
Planned Nord Stream (II)
(offshore)
10%
NEL
Planned Achimov area IV/V*
25% + 1 share
Wintershall Noordzee
(Netherlands)
50% 50%
Yuzhno Russkoye
(SNGP)
35%**
Yuzhno Russkoye
Gas Mktg C.
Upstream
Natural Gas Transport
100%
100%
49.98% entitled to Gazprom
Upstream
Natural Gas Transport
50.02%
50.02% entitled to BASF
Proportionally/ fully consolidated
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 39
150 years 150 years
Review of ’Other’
Million € Q3´15 Q3´14
Sales 685 977 EBIT before special items (98) (7) Thereof corporate research costs group corporate costs currency results, hedges and other valuation effects other businesses
(104) (53)
22 30
(96) (53) 100
23
Special items 26 (20)
EBIT (72) (27)
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 40
150 years 150 years
Million € Q1-Q3’15 Q1-Q3’14* Cash provided by operating activities 8,494 4,932 Thereof changes in net working capital miscellaneous items
2,500 (497)
(900) (181)
Cash used in / provided by investing activities (4,955) (3,785) Thereof payments related to tangible / intangible assets (4,387) (3,587) acquisitions / divestitures 227 355 Cash used in financing activities (3,504) (995) Thereof changes in financial liabilities dividends
(649) (2,900)
1,661 (2,656)
* Previous-year figures restated due to dissolution of disposal group “Natural Gas Trading“
Q1-Q3 2015 Cash flow from operating activities increased by 72% to €8.5 billion Cash inflow from changes in net working capital of €2.5 billion Free cash flow improved to €4.1 exceeding free cash flow of FY 2014
Cash Flow Strong cash flow in Q1-Q3 2015
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 41
150 years 150 years
Balance sheet remains strong
Balance sheet September 30, 2015 vs. December 31, 2014* (in billion €)
Liquid funds
Trade accounts receivable
Long-term assets
10.4
1.7 Dec 31 2014
Sep 30 2015
Inventories
Other assets
11.3
4.1 9.7
1.8
9.7
4.3
28.2
27.8
30.6
43.9
71.4
72.3
45.7 15.4
25.3
15.5
1.1
0.5
Disposal group
Highlights September 30, 2015
Total assets increased slightly by ~€1 billion to €72.3 billion
Inventories decreased by ~€1.6 billion
Trade accounts receivable down by €0.7 billion
Net debt nearly unchanged at €13.8 billion
Equity up ~€2 billion and an equity ratio of 42%
Provisions & other liabilities
Financial debt
Equity
Sep 30 2015
Dec 31 2014
71.4
72.3
Disposal group
28.2
27.8
30.1
15.4
26.2
15.5
0.5
* Previous year values restated due to dissolution of disposal group “Natural Gas Trading“
BASF Capital Market Story November 2015 42
150 years 150 years
150 years