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JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
WCRP Accomplishment Report2005-2009
Promoting, Facilitating and CoordinatingClimate Research in Service to Society
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Outline• Mission and Objectives• Implementation• Main Accomplishments
Facilitating Climate Science AwarenessGlobal/Regional Science CoordinationObservations, Synthesis and MonitoringModeling and Prediction CapabilitiesApplicationsCapacity Building
• Lessons Learned• Conclusions
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Reports, Newsletters, E-Zine, Web, …
2007-2008 Accomplishment Report2006-2007 Accomplishment Report
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Mission & ObjectivesWCRP supports climate-related decision making and planning
adaptation to climate change by developing the science required to determine the:
Predictability of climate; andEffect of human activity on climate
Aim: “to make new advances in the analysis and prediction of the variability and change of the comprehensive Earth system for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”
Coordinated Observation & Predictionof the Earth System (COPES)
WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Implementation Projects, Activities & Partners
Sponsors and Partners: WMO | ICSU | IOC-UNESCO
Core Projects: GEWEX | CLIVAR | SPARC | CliC
Unifying COPES Themes: Observations | Analysis | Modeling
Cross-Cutting Activities: Anthropogenic Climate Change | Atm. Chemistry & ClimateSea Level Rise | Extremes | Seasonal Prediction Decadal Prediction | Monsoons | International Polar Year
Co-Sponsored Activities: SOLAS | START | AOPC | OOPC | GOOS | GCOS
ESSP Partners: IGBP | IHDP | DIVERSITAS
ESSP Joint Projects: GWSP | GCP | GECAFS | GEC&HH
Other Collaborations: CEOS | CLIPS | DRR | GEO | GEOSS | GTOS | IGOSIPCC | WWRP-THORPEX | UNFCCC | World Bank
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Climate Science Awareness Assessments
• Nobel Peace Prize
Accomplishments
Experiments from 16 groups & 24 coupled modelsNov 2008: >2200 users; >500 publications; >462 Tb
• Prominent display of WCRP science• Leadership role as authors/reviewers• WGCM: CMIP3 Open Data Access
IPCCWarming is Unequivocal
and very likely due to human activities
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
IPCC
Accomplishments
CliC: Cryospherechapter 1941 Alaska1941 Alaska
AustriaAustria19001900
Climate Science Awareness Assessments
2007: 38% below average2008: 34% below average
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessments
Accomplishments
Climate Science Awareness Assessments
Experiments from 16 groups
• SPARC: Leadership roleboth in terms of people(authors/referees) andscientific input (peer-reviewed SPARC reports)
• CCMVal modeling effortdefined, collected andanalyzed simulations
Cartoon illustrating how climate change could affect ozone recovery
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationPartnerships with other International Programs
e.g., IGBP AIMES, IGAC, PAGES, IMBER, iLEAPS, SOLAS
Accomplishments
WGCM CMIP5Decadal + Long-Term ProtocolsScenario Development
Traditional forward approach
New approach: Start with Concentrations
IPCCAR5
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationPartnerships with other International Programs
Accomplishments
WCRP, IGBP & GCOS Workshop: Future Climate Change Research and Observations – Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4 (Oct 2007, Sydney Australia)
Using vulnerability of regions and sectorsto climate change is a possible framework to link urgent science questions with societal concerns. WCRP News, June 2008
Workshop examined gaps in observations and basic science raised by the IPCC (I & II), and at deficiencies in the way information about climate change can be used for estimation of impacts, design of adaptation measures, andassessment of regional vulnerability Critical Research
Needs
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationInternational Polar Year
Accomplishments
WCRP InvolvementCoordinated by CliC
-180
-150
-120
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
45 6 0 75 90
Pc (mm)
0 - 1010 - 2020 - 3030 - 4040 - 5050 - 6060 - 7070 - 8080 - 9090 - 390
Arctic stations and Precipitation
Themes & Structures of IPY Projects
Climate at forefront thru > 20 WCRP-Affiliated Projects
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationWithin WCRP
Asian Monsoon Years (07-12)
• Major component of WCRP IMS• 24 regional projects/13 nations• Goal: Improved predictions
Accomplishments
GEWEX and CLIVAR: Monsoon Studies
American, African, Asian-Australian MonsoonField Campaigns, Monitoring and Modeling
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationAcross WMO
Accomplishments
• WGNE – e.g., a new parameterization expert group, with aim of WMO-wide coordination to strengthen links with applications
• WCRP/WWRP-THORPEX – e.g., YOTC coordinated observing,modeling, and forecasting to advance prediction of organizedtropical convection and two-way tropical/extratropical interactions
• WMO-CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Observations, Synthesis, and MonitoringWCRP Observations and Assimilation Panel
Climate Data Records:• Continuity and homogeneity of observations• Need for reprocessing of records and reanalysis
Reanalysis:• Atmosphere, ocean, whole Earth system• Sponsored a series of three WCRP reanalysisconferences
• Third in Tokyo, Japan (28 Jan – 1 Feb 2008)• Full report in Eos• Conference Statement to reanalysis centers• Joint AOPC/GCOS WG to improve reanalysis data sets
Accomplishments
WOAP Members from all WCRP Projects and Modeling Groups and GCOS science panels (AOPC, OOPC, TOPC)
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Observations, Synthesis, and MonitoringGEWEX
Tropical (25°S-25°N) Rainfall
GPCP
Accomplishments
Regional Data Sets
Past MAGSHYMEX New RHP with CLIVAR
CEOP coordinates RHPs to achieve goal of demonstrable skill in predicting changes in water resources and soil moisture
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Observations, Synthesis, and Monitoring
(60°S-60°N)
Accomplishments
SPARC: peer-reviewed WCRP reports and review papers
Temperature change is important component of attribution research:Thus, major effort by SPARC to ensure best possible database
Intercomparison of Hygrometers at theAIDA cloud chamber (AquaVIT)
Stratospheric Water Vapor
Three week “blind” intercomparison will feed into 2010 SPARC report on water vapor trends and climatologies
2006 Ozone Assessment
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Observations, Synthesis, and Monitoring
Greenland Melt Area
CliC
5.00E+06
1.00E+07
1.50E+07
2.00E+07
2.50E+07
3.00E+07
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Area
Mel
ted
(km
2 )
Year
Total Melt AreaApril - October
20021998
19951991
19921996
2005
1987
1983
2007
Accomplishments
But not everything is melting …
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Observations, Synthesis, and Monitoring
Greenland Melt Area
CliC
5.00E+06
1.00E+07
1.50E+07
2.00E+07
2.50E+07
3.00E+07
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Area
Mel
ted
(km
2 )
Year
Total Melt AreaApril - October
20021998
19951991
19921996
2005
1987
1983
2007
Accomplishments
AIM: initiate a process to create a more comprehensive, coordinated and integrated cryospheric observing system
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Observations, Synthesis, and Monitoring
CLIVAR
IndOOS Monitoring AMOC
Accomplishments
Venice, 21-25 Sept 2009 in partnership with IOC
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Observations, Synthesis, and MonitoringCLIVAR
Accomplishments
12m-rm seasonal anom: NATL Averaged temperature over the top 300m
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Time
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
ukdpukoicfcs2cfas2ecco50y
gfdlsodaecmfaecmfcukgs
ingvmri-eccoSIOcfasamct2
mct3eccoJPLaeccoJPLceccoMITGMAO
sdv ensm = 0.164s/n ensm = 1.620
sdv all = 0.206s/n all = 2.028
spread = 0.101
GSOP: Ocean Synthesis Evaluation Workshops
N. Atlantic Temp(0-300 m)
ARGO
WCRP enablinginitialized predictions
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Prediction CapabilitiesCLIVAR WGSIP
Accomplishments
180 attendees/30 countries
Maximum predictability not yetachieved – interactions among climatesystem components (pan WCRP)
Goal is to leverage, coordinate and synthesize ongoing activities into a focused seasonal prediction experiment that incorporates all
elements of the climate system: first steps in seamless capability
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Prediction CapabilitiesJSC/CLIVAR WGCM
Accomplishments
Decadal Prediction First Attempts
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Prediction CapabilitiesGEWEX GMPP
Accomplishments
MISSION is to facilitate improved representationof energy and water cycle in models
• Largely translates into evaluation andimprovements of parameterizations
• Process studies are a critical tool
e.g., GCSS-community designed DYCOMS to narrow uncertainty in stratocumulus top-entrainment rate
(Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus)
Underestimated Stratocumulus
OLD
NEWECMWF model
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Prediction CapabilitiesSPARC CCMVal
Process-oriented model metrics
Accomplishments
Effect of ozone recovery on SH high-latitude climate change
2001-20502001-2050
Interactive chemistry AR4 models
Highlights need to represent ozone recovery in climate predictions
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Prediction CapabilitiesWCRP Modeling Panel
Accomplishments
World Modeling Summit (May 2008)– A strategy to revolutionize weather & climate prediction
– Concept of seamless prediction
– Climate Prediction Project (IGBP, WWRP, WCRP) to provide global climate information for regional adaptation and decision-making
– World Climate Research Facility to accelerate progress in operational climate prediction, building global capacity, developing a trained scientific workforce, and engage global users
The next big climate challenge“Governments should work together to build the supercomputers needed for future predictions that can capturethe detail required to inform policy”
“Climate prediction is anational security issue if
ever there was one”
15 March 2008
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Applications
Accomplishments
e.g., Malaria
Research to aid predictions/assessment of conditions and
habitat for vector-borne diseases
African Climate Atlashttp://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/ c ~clivar/ClimateAtlas/
(easy access for non-experts)
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Applications
• WCRP scientists active in planning/organizing
Accomplishments
• WCRP will: – Promote climate research in the context of climate
information for decision-makingWMP Modeling Summit & Model Development Climate Information System Framework
– Play a major role in the scientific/technical segment (white papers, theme leaders, etc.)
– Engage in the policy segment which targets heads of states, ministers, senior government officials
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Capacity Building
Accomplishments
WCRP and ICTP Workshops:Interpreting Climate Change Simulations:Capacity Building for Developing Nations
(November 2007)
Applying RCMs to Developing Nations in Support of Climate Change Assessment and Prediction
(March 2008) VACS Southern & Eastern African Climate Predictability
Workshop(July 2006)
Workshops on use of model outputs
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Capacity Building
Accomplishments
• With partners, facilitate participation of early-career scientists – in particular from developing countries – in workshops/conferences, e.g.
– SPARC General Assembly (53 sponsored students/32 from developing countries)
– ENSO Summer School, Hawaii, US, June 2008
– ClimEco Training Seminar, Brest, FranceApril 2008
– SOLAS biannual summer school (2003 – )– Ice Sheet modeling school
– NCAR 2009 ASP Colloquium – …
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Lessons Learned
• Much WCRP success arises from facilitation, largely through the core projects, of community workshops/conferences and activities to build consensus on programs and implementation plans to address key issues and challenges in climate science
• Activities with targeted, short-term deliverables, set within a broader strategic framework, resonate with scientists and funding agencies and are highly successful in focusing efforts and resources and advancing understanding
• Project Offices (IPOs) are critical for making things happen, and leverage significant resources from individual countries
• Progress can be hampered when activity leaders have too many other commitments; engaging young scientists who can ‘make their careers’ in leadership roles can be very effective
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Lessons Learned
• The WCRP core projects play a key role supporting regional efforts, but also in coordinating such efforts (so that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts)
• Scientific information is most useful when scientists work directly with users
• WCRP is the most important global organization supporting fundamental climate science, in growing partnerships with other international programs, as is necessary to tackle challenging interdisciplinary Earth System science questions
• As the climate-information for climate risk management agenda advances, WCRP is and should remain the primary research partner to ensure the scientific base and rigor for a Climate Service System, as well as the innovator for improved products and quality of information
JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd
Conclusions
• WCRP has a great opportunity (with attendant challenges) to build on its 30 years of successful legacy by staying focused on the forefront of climate system research for the rest of this century
• WCRP must promote and enable the timely use of climate information and knowledge it generates for decision-making through its partnerships with providers and users of such information
• The greatest challenge for WCRP is to demonstrate the value of its global and regional scientific coordination and integration efforts to sponsors, donors, and the participant scientists and organizations that support its Projects and activities